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Guest Post: U.S. Gasoline Consumption Plummets By Nearly 75%
Submitted by Jeff Nielsen via BullionBullsCanada blog,
Regular readers are familiar with my narratives on the U.S. Greater Depression, and (in particular) some of the government’s own charts which depict this economic meltdown most vividly. The collapse in the “civilian participation rate” (the number of people working in the economy) and the “velocity of money” (the heartbeat of the economy) indicate an economy which is not merely in decline, but rather is being sucked downward in a terminal (and accelerating) death-spiral.
However, even that previously published data, and the grim analyses which accompanied it could not prepare me for the horror story contained in data passed along by an alert reader. U.S. “gasoline consumption” – as measured by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) itself – has plummeted by nearly 75%, from its all-time peak in July of 1998. A near-75% collapse in U.S. gasoline consumption has occurred in little more than 15 years.
Before getting into an analysis of the repercussions of this data, however, it’s necessary to properly qualify the data. Obviously, even in the most-nightmarish economic Armageddon, a (relatively short-term) 75% collapse in gasoline consumption is simply not possible. Unless we were dealing with a nation whose economy had been suddenly ripped apart by civil war, or some small nation devastated by a massive earthquake or tsunami; it’s simply not possible for any economy to just disintegrate that rapidly, without there being some ultra-powerful exogenous force also at work.
So how can this raw data, produced by the government itself, be explained? To begin with; the government chooses to measure U.S. gasoline consumption in a very odd manner: by measuring the amount of gasoline entering the domestic supply-chain rather than by measuring actual consumption at the other end of the supply-chain – i.e. “at the pump”.
Why does the U.S. government, which (among other things) leads the world in the manufacture of statistics not produce any simple/direct measurement of gasoline consumption? How can the St. Louis Fed produce nearly 100 different charts on gasoline and diesel prices (for any/every price-category which can be imagined by these statistics geeks), but not a single chart on gasoline supply/demand?
There are several reasons for this unbalanced, anomalous, and simply absurd statistical methodology. First of all; the reason why the U.S. government produces a near-infinite number of charts on prices is because prices are what the Gamblers (i.e. bankers) use as the basis for their $100’s of trillions in gambling in the rigged casinos which the bankers call “markets”.
While supply/demand data is of utmost importance in the real world; the banker-gamblers don’t dwell in the real world. As regular readers already know; their derivatives casino, alone, is roughly twenty times as large as the entire global economy. To the bankers; the “real world” is nothing but fodder for their insane gambling.
Why use this data, at all, since it is such an inferior/distorted means of measuring U.S. gasoline consumption? Because the EIA uses exactly the same data to publish its own “estimates” of U.S. gasoline consumption:
Note: Product supplied measures the amount of gasoline that went into the supply chain and is used as a proxy for gasoline consumption. [emphasis mine]
The other half of this ridiculous statistical hodge-podge, where endless quantities of trivial/irrelevant price data are trumpeted, while any/all data which actually measures the (real) economy is suppressed (if not buried entirely) displays a government desperately trying to hide this massive economic collapse.
If you choose to measure the amount of gasoline leaving U.S. refineries and entering domestic inventories and call this “gasoline consumption”; you can hide the actual collapse in gasoline consumption – until those retail inventories are overflowing, and there is simply no more room in the storage tanks.
This is what we see today in the U.S.: a gasoline market which had been deliberately-and-dramatically over-supplied with gasoline at the wholesale end of the supply-chain (the refineries) has now practically ground to a halt. The same nation which previously amazed the world as it accumulated more automobiles and more miles of highways per capita than any nation on Earth (and by a huge margin) now has such an insane glut of gasoline that it’s massive chain of refineries have had to simply turn off the taps – until this pathetically anemic economy manages to burn-off some of that glut.
This conclusion becomes even more visible/obvious when we view the gasoline data just from the start of the mythical “U.S. economic recovery” to the present. At the start of the “U.S. recovery”; U.S. gasoline consumption was at a rate of 52 million gallons per day (already more than 20% below the 1998 all-time peak). In the five years since the start of this pretend-recovery; U.S. gasoline consumption has fallen all the way to 18 million gallons per day.
Since the beginning of “the U.S. economic recovery”; U.S. gasoline consumption has plummeted by nearly 2/3. As the pseudo-recovery began, and supposedly “strengthened”; U.S. refineries were ordered to fill up the inventories of their dealer network, in anticipation of the increased gasoline consumption which would have occurred in any real “recovery”.
But there never was an increase in U.S. gasoline consumption, because there never was a U.S. economic recovery. Rather, the Greater Depression has simply (and relentlessly) continued to pulverize the U.S. economy like a meat-grinder. To hide this devastation (as well as is possible), the government produces a wide array of its pseudo-statistics, that all contain myriad “adjustments” – which make it possible for these liars-with-numbers to distort the statistical picture of the U.S. economy beyond recognition.
Meanwhile, any/all statistics which measure raw data (and thus cannot be perverted with “adjustments”) are either suppressed (like the civilian participation rate), or not even measured, at all – as is the case with U.S. gasoline consumption. At the retail end; none of the “sales” statistics are adjusted for inflation, not even with the absurdly-fraudulent “CPI” numbers.
By not deflating sales data (at all) the collapse in U.S. gasoline consumption “at the pump” is hidden within all this unreported inflation. As explained in previous commentaries; it is this same, unreported inflation which allows the U.S. to convert its large, negative, GDP readings (which would otherwise reveal the Greater Depression) into “economic growth”. It is this same, unreported inflation which allows the government (and employers) to hide the fact that U.S. wages have collapsed by more than 50%.
But what the liars-with-numbers cannot hide (any longer) is the collapse in U.S. gasoline consumption which has accompanied the continued, downward spiral of the Greater Depression. The storage tanks are now all full. The only way to (temporarily) hide the collapse in U.S. gasoline consumption any further would be to construct even more storage facilities. However, there is no possible economic justification for increasing storage capacity in a market of steadily/relentlessly declining demand.
Indeed, the exact opposite is true. The U.S. economy of the 21st century (a mere hollowed-out husk of what it was only 20 years earlier) will require less and less gasoline storage facilities over time, reflecting a supply network for a steadily shrinking market. As the One Bank completes its plundering of the U.S. economy, and completes its transformation of the U.S. Middle Class into the Working Poor, it is also simply using up more and more of its economic lies.
The Great Inflation Lie will continue to allow the U.S. government (and other Western governments) to crank-out absurd/imaginary positive numbers for GDP. It will continue to allow the U.S. government to crank-out absurd/imaginary numbers for retail sales (and hide the ongoing collapse of the entire U.S. retail sector).
But it can’t hide the fact that U.S. refineries have nearly stopped producing gasoline for the most-motorized society/economy the world has ever seen. It can’t hide the fact that there haven’t been so few people working in the U.S. economy (on a percentage basis) in 35 years.
Readers who are stubbornly faithful to the plethora of pseudo-statistics which the U.S. government uses to hide this collapse may have been skeptical of my original denunciation of the “U.S. economic recovery”. They may have been more skeptical with assertions that this Wonderland Matrix of lies is being used to hide a Greater Depression.
However, there is no further room for skepticism when official, government numbers indicate a near-75% collapse in U.S. gasoline consumption over a mere 15 years, and a 65% collapse in consumption since the start of the (supposed) Recovery. Numbers such as this can only be encapsulated with acronyms like “DOA”.
When we look at the EIA’s “gasoline consumption” numbers, and when we see the St. Louis Fed’s chart of the U.S. velocity of money (heartbeat of the U.S. economy); we don’t see an economy which is dying. We see an economy which is already dead.
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got my 5 qts and filter for 26 $ today...
Wow that had to be the generic brand oil, I have to run Mobil 1
No...you don't. You chose to drive something that requires Mobil 1.
America meet the rest of the world, world, this is America.
Just waiting on the final explosive bowel evacuation of the bloated corpse.
S+ P = 666
It's funny how the local Communist Party here and their media shills trumpet the news that gas prices have 'dropped markedly by 3 fucking whole cents' this week!
But never seem to get around to mentioning the other 2 dollars in increases.
Gas around the PNW is well above 4 a gallon and closing in on 5 for deisel. We will for sure see 5 for regular by the 4th of July. At which point the 'consumer' goes into toxic shock and locks down.
In the deep south, gas goes above $4 per gallon and everybody quits going to work.
Low pay eCONomy won't support it.
Viva la Revolucion.
Now that's a thriving economy...
Yea millionaire media celebs tell us how good we have it at .3 cents less than last week like its filet mignon for us.
Hey, it's called conservation. Environmentalists should be jizzing all over each other with this news.
That is on the Barry-Jay Carny thread.
Fuel economy standards haven't budged much in 15 years or so, the auto industry saw to that, while the rolling fleet has gone up a lot.
People are driving less.
People are just doing a lot less of a lot of things, turns out.
People posting dumb-fuck articles at ZH is clearly up...
cougar see my comment above. This article has been thoroughly debunked.
Refinery owned retail outlets have been getting sold to independent buyers because it's low margin downstream business and the refineries wanted their capital elsewhere. The retail sales numbers come from the outlets still refinery owned, and that total is shrinking because the independents are not req'd to report.
It's completely bogus data.
You might want to check your data and look at the total of all categories...
We need Toll Roads every mile. It's safer for the people, we can employ hundreds of government workers, set up license plate cameras & we need the money for our broken pension system...And triple car registration fees while we are at it.
Signed ~ your local pig politician.
"We need Toll Roads every mile"
I understand one of the toll athorities is already doing this.
Red light cameras on every stop sign/light. Someone has to maintain them. There is no limit to the government growth.
Drive to the Jersey shore from PA. and you will see this in action. Every shit heel town hits you up for the pleasure of driving through its boundaries.
And that's just from the cops. Now....about those toll roads.
It would be interesting if the idiot writing the article understood what
"Total Gasoline Retail Sales by Refiners"
actually meant....
Refiners have been getting out of the retail business for some years now...
Moreover, check the units, ~60,000 gallons a day, where in reality the amount of gasoline burnt is closer to 320 million gallons a day.....
Therefore we can safely ignore whatever this moron has to say....
Exactly.
Perhaps the EIA shouldn't measure 'consumption' using a metric that has nothing to do with consumption?
Also, I don't know why you're getting so many red arrows. What you said was correct.
You and that asshat are the only ones projecting "consumption".....
Try this
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/marketing/prime/
More like 10 billion gallons a month...
or this
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=C100000001&f=M
I was working under the (false) assumption that the author at least had knowledge that his metric was used to gauge consumption. My apologies.
Thanks...
Much appreciated, BTW...
"I don't know why you're getting so many red arrows. What you said was correct."
Friends and family...lol
It pained me to do it, but I greened you, Flak.
This is missing imports of refined product, conversion to diesel and nat gas, and probably a lot more.
Really shoddy and misleading.
It's missing a lot more than that...
The guy is either a complete idiot or deliberately trying to decieve people...
My money is on the second....
Sorry Flakdood, I got late to this party and am tearing the author a new asshole on page 1 of the comments because haha I didn't know you already did it on page 2.
I should just retire to a mountaintop and sit crosslegged, quietly.
i remember very well the drop in april 2009 (when i got laid off from a big nyc bank). i had lots of time and spent lots of time wandering. i was in love with the drop in autos' driving everywhere. it grew steadily. 2 years ago - the $4/gallon shock, for a short period, i again saw a drop off in drivers. now - the number of cars amazes me. never ending cars in manhattan, brooklyn. i visit my mom in florida - never ending cars.
fuel efficiency hasn't improved this much. i don't know the facts - but my eyes can see. petrol consumption hasn't dropped. i have no idea what this guy is talking about.
regardless - the economy still stinks - but banks haven't cut back anywhere on credit card debt - and won't.
"The guy is either a complete idiot or deliberately trying to decieve people..."
It's a gold site. What else would you expect?
Badabing....
Me too, Kaiser. I had to give him a greenie too, but it wasn't easy.
I not only greened Flak, I greened Crash also. Jeez ... Please, anyone/everyone reading this, downvote me so I can still hold some semblance of Fight Club. This Kumbaya stuff is hard to take.
C'mon Flak, why so serious? This shit was funny!
75% decline in consumption! Fetch me my leather strides and a can of dog food, it must be Mad Max out there!
\hattip
This chunk right here is the only non-ignorant section of comments in this whole damned thread. My own back of the napkin estimate is that usa gasoline consumption is down about 10% from the (broad) peak in 2005.
Nice to see the Americans becoming more environmentally conscious.
On zerohedge no less, this must be due to our great leader rubbing off on them...let me rephrase that.....to all my friends here at ZH, power down!
if these cheap citizcenszies will not buy drive and use consumer goods will just have to PRINT new consumers! there!
The fall in gasoline (petrol) consumption could be attributed to a move towards more efficient cars (little Japanese/Korean cars) and people buying more diesels than before, however this graph, electricity consumption is starting to follow the same curve.
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=us&v=81
Now electrically powered items (TV's, fridges etc.) are getting more efficient but the population of the US is growing and the move towards electric cars should show a ramping up of consumption.
My conclusion, You're all fucked.
The government can go on to a obesity tax. They'll make a fortune.
Something's not right about this. The petrochemical industry in the U.S. is hopping and has been for several years.
BTW, does this oversupply of petrol mean that James H. Kunstler is still a stupid dick-smoking jackass?
What oversupply????
I question the numbers,
Its really amazing what electronic fuel injection has done in spite of a multi million person Mexican invasion during that time frame our population grew from 271M to 315M or 44M people 15%.
We grew 15% and cut consumption by 75% ?
What have I been telling you ignorant assholes? Gasoline KILLED retail. How long will you allow price fixing?
\facepalm....
LOL Cut it out, Flak! Two greenies in one day brings me to a lifetime limit here.
My buddy from Kinder told me this like 6 months ago and I thought he was full of shit. I could understand diesel. But gasoline? I remember paying $.93/gallon for gas in 1998. Like when high school kids would just drive around all night and that was like good, cheap fun.
Wasn't it wonderful when the North Sea peaked....
You forgot north slope, gone gone good bye and forever, Reaganomics was Alaskan crude
The problem with Thatcherism is that you eventually run out of North Sea Oil
Flakmeister 2008
With the exception of throwing in a few measured statistics for it's impact on the Baltic Dry Index to accompany this "bellwether"...
Great read!
This article is a bit better than the one above, it's from January 2013
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/01/31/why-is-us-oil-consumption-lower-bet...
Hey, that's the recovery happenin'
Well, come on... As reported on this VERY site, all new debt is either: student lending OR auto loans. New cars are more fuel efficient, so gas consumptions should be going down.
And speaking of viscosity, who needs viscosity of money when you've got an infinite amount of it? Why is everybody obsessed over old - now worthless - measurements of economic activity?
When the viscosity of money goes up, does its velocity go down :)
I think an artifical crater in fuel prices is coming, first to fuck Russia (we are at war with Russia actively engaging in economic warfare) BTW they are also cratering gold to fuck Russia, and second cratering fuel prices would make imposing additional fuel taxes at the state and federal level easy, if gasoline dropped to $1.50/gallon govt would gleefully tack on a $2.00 gallon tax pushing it right back up to $3.50 gallon or more.
They can suppress fuel prices temporarily, remember $1.50 gallon while the EU was paying $6-7?
They said they wanted $6-7/gallon or more fuel taxes like in Europe and they always do what they say, they've already spent the future tax revenue from the fuel taxes they haven't imposed yet.
I'm not 100% certain, but I suspect Russia exports little or no gold, but imports quite a bit (to raise its hoard of hard money). Which means, China and Russia may be two large producers of gold, but are both large importers.
If I'm right, that means LOW GOLD PRICES is good for Russia, because they are BUYING and ACCUMULATING, NOT SELLING... or at least they are net buyers/accumulators.
Who knows the answer to this? Am I wrong?
You are almost certainly correct. Both China and Russia are playing the long game, in stark constrast to the U.S.
Goood luck with that plan.
Shame Putin ,Xi, and associates have a better one.
Saudi is running on fumes,Libya is fucked, and Russia is now brokering Iranian oil.
More likely to see &150 bl than $75 bl.IMO . I could be wrong ,but the shale field going
bankrupt is prolly going to hurt the US more than Russia.
driller on NPR (sorry, memory not so good) aaid they were pulling up water in the Saud's arabia.
hope we get going on the thorium reactors...
Still about $3.70/gal in NH, give or take. Why aren't the prices falling with a big supply glut? Last summer they were $3.20, give or take.
Collusion?
What supply glut?
This article is hilarious! Why? Because it really is insightful in the sense of describing a real phenomenon (namely, the same kind of "channel stuffing" that is happening with car manufacturers)... but it then goes "full retard" by talking about "gasoline consumption" after it has accurated shown why this channel stuffing makes it impossible for him to actually determine "gasoline consumption".
Frankly, it would be interesting to know what actual "gasoline consumption" has been for the same time period. However, I guess that's impossible, because apparently nobody collects statistics on the quantity of gasoline actually delivered to customers at gas stations!
So his general theme is "right-on" (channel stuffing, plus the fact the USSA is in a depression obscured by a lie-spewing PR system), but... we still don't know how much.
I have been saying for a while now that the "labor participation rate" chart is one of the most useful charts around. However, even that chart is optimistic, because apparently it does not account for "number of hours worked per week", and as we all know, that has fallen dramatically (due to bad economy AND obamacare rules).
Hi Ann...good to see ya here. Hope everything is well with you.
One indirect yet as accurate as any measure is the state and federal fuel tax receipts. At the federal level there is much handwringing over the Federal Highway Trust Fund depletion which is scheduled to run out of $$ sometime this year or next, I think, according to the last gloom & doom report from the Sec'y of Transportation. In other words, they've looted damn near the whole thing and it's time for the taxpayer to get fleeced yet again.
www.taxpolicycenter.org (thru 2011 only)
Understanding Gasoline Sales "By Refiners""I asked Tim Wallace what to make of this. Wallace writes ..."
Nice charts and information but the wording needs some serious editing.
You jumped around and said the same things several times, very choppy.
On to gasoline consumption; it is due to a collapsing economy.
You don't use much gas when you don't need to drive to work.
And no, it is not due to the "hybrids" and better mileage cars; maybe 10% if that since 1998 would be due to higher mileage.
Just about every state, except Alaska I believe, could give you an exact amount of consumption because they tax every gallon at the pump.
Divice yearly revenues on gas tax by the cents charged per gallon by state and you'd have a very accurate "at the pump" consumption figure.
Depression; not recession, and certainly not recovery.
Read this chart and explain the difference. Gotta call BS here
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W
Not saying I believe the article, as it seems improbable at best that consumption has dropped 75%, but his point is that the measurements in government statistics measure what is essentially sent to fuel dealers. This is alot like GM saying they "sold" X amount of cars to dealers - many of which remain on the lot, in parking lots of vacant buildings, etc.
IDK, I go back to the fact that we are still at ZIRP 5 years in to a recovery? The FED is still on QE at a pace of over half a trillion per year? WHY? Really??? The economy has been growing (per the government). Right? We are at 6% unemployment? Right? Why all the hand holding? With such great economic results there should be no need for the training wheels.
We are not getting the real Fed minutes, we are not getting the tell tell statistics, we are not getting all the facts. Something is wrong big time and it is being papered over - at least for now...
I simply don't believe these numbers...it's virtually impossible for consumption to drop by 75% yet the price of a gallon and traffic congestion in major cities is at record highs.
There are people here that know what the fuck is going on, unlike the idiot that wrote the above drivel..
Unless he is simply a lying shill...
And that is a very good possibility...
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/Apr/30/California-uses-less-gasoline/
Since 2005, the state's annual gasoline consumption has dropped by 9 percent, or 1.43 billion gallons. National consumption has declined, though not as much.
I'm calling bulshit on this article...
From above...
"In the five years since the start of this pretend-recovery; U.S. gasoline consumption has fallen all the way to 18 million gallons per day." This amounts to 6.5 Billion gallons a year.
Yet "Californians consumed 14.5 billion gallons of gas in 2012."
Everybody is staying at home determining ways to overthow the Washington D.C. government.
People have never been so busy.
Keep printing Federal Reserve. Henry Kissenger is on the phone explaining petrodollar recycling.
This is at least the third ZH article in two days that is utter crap, it's not whether or not you agree but whether it makes any sense at all, is it some kind of reader test?
You are correct, and this is of great concern.
There needs to be an upgrade to the Tyler screen. This is a horrible failure of fact checking by fucking SOMEONE.
I mean, the fact that the numbers are this cooked is interesting, but there's no reason to try to take them seriously.
What are you saying? The numbers make perfect sense, it's the interpretation that is bullshit.
WTF? every other article on ZH is crap, but there are true diamonds as well.
Hope ZH is not driving into Tabloidville.
"Mystery Solved: Missing 75% of U.S. Gasoline Consumed by UFOs!"
Thank God I have gas guzzlers. In god we trust.
That's on my US Dollar and SC license plate.
Duh, it was Cash for Clunkers!
But how can that be so....the MSM says we are in a huge recovery????
What this article purports to be true simply isn't possible. If gasoline consumption really dropped by that much, the roads would be nearly empty. I assure you they are not. These statistics must not be measuring what you think they are measuring. As a cross check, we know that Federal gas tax per-gallon rates haven't changed since 1993, so fed gas tax revenue should be exactly proportional to consumption. It has hardly changed at all from 2007-2012
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=74&Topic2...
Gas tax revenue dropoped from 25.8B to 24.8B during that time, and diesel dropped from 9.8 to 8.9B.
Cars are more fuel efficient, so miles driven must be up a bit.
Unfortuantely, the DOT website is down at the moment.
The roads may not be empty, but they are certainly less jam packed than they were just a couple years ago.
This is the most misleading article I have ever read on zerohedge...The data shown on gasoline sales is refering to sales of branded refiner gasoline (i.e. Shell, BP, Valero). The branded refiner channel of sale has continued to lose market share over the years to sales from non-refiner branded outlets (think grocery stores, Quicktrip, Joe's gas station, etc...) The refiners are still selling gasoline, just not through their own branding. A much more accurate way to view sales would be to look at ALL Gasoline sales by Prime supplier, found here -
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=C100000001&f=M
It is laughable to think the author truly believes the entire US only consumes 20 million gallons of gasoline a day, or roughly 430,000 bbls/day. The state of California alone consumes more than that. I understand his view that the US economy is in trouble, but gasoline consumption in this country has not fallen by 75% from the peak, far from it. The true peak was seen back in 2005 when Hummer was leading SUV sales. Since then, fuel economy has improved YoY, and not many people drive 10 mpg Hummers anymore...true consumption decline from the 05 peak is closer 10%, partially due to less driving, but mainly due to less demand as a result of more fuel effecient cars. Any refiner that has shut down in the last 5 years has primarily been in the North East where refiners high input costs of Brent cannot compete with gulf coast production with much lower input costs. With the expansions of the Colonial Pipeline, the the transport capacity and relatively low costs have made continuing operations uneconomical.
Actually I thought the "Oblama to drone 'Muricans " series was a little over the top but that's just my white hiney
"Their" statistics show such a steep decline in gasoline consumption in the U.S. so as not to skew their inflation statistics in the U.S. towards an upward bias.(same reasoning for QE and artificially keeping interest rates below actual inflation rates) I expect that gasoline consumption has been flat over their measuring timeline that shows a 75% decline.
The FED historically excluded food and energy from its CPI calculation because food and and energy production has historically(the past 150 years) grown in proportion to demand to such excess that they did not want to skew their inflation calculations to the downside by including food and energy. Now they continue to exclude food and energy for reasons that are beneficial to extrapolating government growth.
I am a
laborer--and a damn good one
2Tings
Energy Independence (haha)
Price reflected at pump, NOPE. Supply & Demand; FREEEEEEE MARKET
Most people who can read understand that this article is garbage. Even the article itself got halfway there, when it stated that gasoline consumption can't drop 75% without a civil war / tsunami etc. What really depresses me is the number of posts saying "I don't believe consumption dropped 75%" or "The US economy is collpse". Zerohedge is filled with commenters who talk about stupid sheeple, and pat themselves on the back for being some kind of cognitive super-elite, but five minutes of looking for graphs and data would show where and why the 75% decrease in consumption interpretation is wrong. Are there really so many people who want to post without even a cursory thought of what they are reading?
I guess the real question is why there is not a simple measure of real consumption, but I believe the author has a good theory.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_a_EPM0F_VPP_mbblpd_a.htm
Does this help? And the author doesn't have a theory. The idea that consumption and production are going to be way out of line on a year over year basis is ridiculous.
The author agreed with much of the critism leveled here, and I have to agree he could have looked abit closer to the realities but having to attack the writer when having to use GOVERNMENT FIGURE IS LIKE DANCING WITH THE DEVIL.
I agree george got a little sloppy on this article---- noone bats 1000%---nobody. Milestones
The author was explicitly pointing out that even the govenrment figures back his view, where the figure he cited showed nothing of the kind. He wasn't a little sloppy, he was horrible. In addition I can't help but laugh when you say no one bats 1000% QED.
I'm working, and for that I can be thankful.
Also: My commute is 8 minutes one way. If I only go to work and the gym (which is along the route) I literally fill up only once a month.
My best friend lives a mile away and another a mile in the opposite direction. Shooting range about 3.5 miles. Thirty-ish MPG car.
Gas=Lol.
Wish I had a nickel for every time I heard somebody say, "I'm just glad to be working" in the past 5 years.
'The new normal'
The only time that I will drive is if there are billable hours at the end of that drive which entitles me to a mileage deduction. Most of the time I can work remotely from home, but I still like to do face time once a week with my clients. I'm driving 1/4 less than I used to 4 years ago.
My stupid friends get bored and just cruise around for entertainments sake, yet they mock me and get pissed when I don't drive stupid places halfway across the County when I can get the same things w/in a 10 minute drive.
The best part is all the morons in my family who moved into the country to get away from everything bad now bitch about driving 40 miles for a loaf of bread. I live in an urban area, and I have more choices w/in 1/2 mile than I can count. Yes, I rub it in their faces now in total sadistic payback for all the years they called me crazy for living in a city.
The kicker was I told my Sister I'd move to New York City before I moved to her rural county. She would not speak to me for a week, but she never broached the subject again. I meant it too.
As long as all those trucks keep delivering all your needs from those country settings to your urban environment - you are the man!
When they stop - you are the meat.
HOLY shit ZH has been infiltrated by hippy peace freaks! Never thought I'd see the day, Freaks in the wire! freaks in the wire! Of which I am one
Dude, this has nothing to do with the economy.
We are just turning green, you know riding bikes, plannin trips to the stores, to save the enviroment.
gotta stop global warming, and save the enviroment.
yea, and there a lot more people using shopping carts for their wheels.
Holy shit man
Obviously there is channel stuffing and drawdown as well as improved efficiencies distorting the data, but even a 25 percent drop in real demand would be significant.
The shit hawks may be coming.
Road construction as far as the eye can see. Traffic jams farther than that. Thousands of smoking, abused SUVs and Buick Roadmaster Hoarders casting dark smokey shadows over that lone Chevy Volt broke down on the side of the road and we are using 75 percent less gas????? Yup, sure, I buy that. And the umemployment number is the gospel truth.
7 years ago my wife was driving 40K per year in her car. I was driving 70K per year in my truck. the past three years our combined miles, both vehicles, we drove less than 3K. Yes that is less than three thousand miles combined.
I think Family binding is the only good byproduct of high gas prices
I believe the USA has also produced gasoline in the past and present for export and the combination of lower domestic consumption and lower international consumption would be a more plausable explanation. The world is in the Greater Depression.
Correct. Has been for some time.
Here in the US, that has been mollified by "free shit/comfy lifestyle/internet distraction/distraction of asinine proportions. A quick trip to WalMart is emblematic of the state of the US citizenry; fat, dumb and stupid - and add to that, millions now live off Uncle Sugar....to stay...fat dumb and stupid.
Once the TBTF Banking Cunts were allowed to use other people's money to gamble, the world OFFICIALLY jumped the bloody shark.
Since that time (post Glass Stegall/funding unhealthy home loans by the millions), and the financial rigging of the post NAFTA/Banks Gone Wild/9/11 era, the transfer of wealth went to "Lunatic Speed" - right before everyone's eyes...
less consumption via fiat death...oil not immune....
...and no revolution...thus...it continues....and will.....for quite some time...
"Banks Gone Wild", Ha! Ha! You made me laugh Beetle, +1000
Well, it does make sense. More part time workers. Less work participation overall. Less people working means less driving. Stay at home ho ho eaters.
Well, it does make sense. More part time workers. Less work participation overall. Less people working means less driving. Stay at home ho ho eaters.
Fisker Karma (series 18, episode
So the price per gallon will start to come down soon, right?
I am looking forward to sub $2/gallon this summer
/sarc
I actually remember when it was .88 cents........life sure seemed a helluva lot easier back then.
I was taking macro when prices first started spiking and I asked the prof. how it could be possible that the price increase wouldn't be passed on to the consumer in other goods. His pat answer was "in a recession, prices fall". I agreed with him regarding non-essential goods like clothes and pillows and sh*t you don't really HAVE to have, but we agreed to disagree on things you can't do without like food.
I remember traveling down a brick road in Chagrin Falls, OH with my Grandpa. He used Shell as his gas station. What matchbox car do you want? When I become eligible to drive, I would roll into SOHIO for a full service fill up.
John D. Rockefeller. Good people, some have never met them. I suggest you do. Great foundation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Oil_of_Ohio
High Prices are necessary for shale gas to succeed. Huge loans have also gone to the shale gas/oil producers.
Refinery output in the US is also contained. No new refineries have come up to my knowledge for the last 25 years.
this is partly due to improved gas mileage newer cars, and also americans, especially younger americans, are using computers and cellphones for entertainment and social interactions far more than before. Young people used to drive to certain locations to socialize. These days they socialize online and via cellphones. No gas needed.
However I do agree that the govt and the media tend to ignore or even hide statistics that tend to weaken the 'growth story.'
However I do think that the site that created this article is out to sell gold, and one way to sell gold is to undermine faith in the financial system
If consumption is down so much, why has the price stayed high. Don't give me that large storage tank crap. All of this gas has to be financed. There is no magical hedge fund or government buying all of the unused consumption. Something is off. Is it being exported?
I will have to look into this tomorrow. I am going to bed.
just cuz USA is loaded with technology and oil/shale
.
90%
So our refiners are making more gasoline than ever and admittedly exporting some more than they used to but this just does not make sence.
I wish I could burn 75% less fuel, but I cannot............
Check the output figures at eia.gov.
Believe me, they do not dump it into the ocean... they sell it to somebody.
Now my current vehicle gets alot better milliage than the ole' 75 4x4,3/4 ton pickup (Ibelieve 6 mpg).
My Tacoma gets 20 so maybe ...................
For me this is a startling revelation. Such a drastic reduction yet the population grows.
the world is run by stupid men in dumb suits wearing obnoxious neckties.
motherfucking madness!
lowered demand fosters higher price/gallon to assure desired return. higher demand fosters moar expensive extraction technology cause the cheap and easy is long gone.
and all the while the motion of the universe goes unnoticed beyond the haze
children of men
kidz of godz
In 1996 big oil decided there was too much gasoline production capacity for them to make the margins they wanted. They decided to buy up the independent refineries and shut them down such that production would be consolidated in a few huge refineries. (this is why there are price spikes with every little interruption now when back in the 80s it was unheard of because of the decentralized production)
It only took a few short years to execute the plan. So it's rather odd that this plot shows gasoline peaking in 1998 and then going into decline. Pretty much when they started hiking prices by being able to control supply.
You don;t really believe the nonsense you just wrote do you?
Becauase it has little to nothing to do with reality...
He is holding those thought like a scared child holds his "blankie".
This must be ratty data of some kind.
miles travelled is down a couple of percent and CAFE is up some 10-15%, but, i don't think
we are seeing this hard of a number.
Some was restocking of gasoline post Sandy and Katrina, but, this isn't
that big of an issue
While the plunge in gasoline consumption is amazing, it's difficult to ascribe this to the economy. At least entirely. This data is for sales VOLUME, not sales dollars. At peak consumption in 1998, the average gallon of gas cost about $1.00. Today it's nearly $3.70. The price nearly quadrupled during this time frame. If Americans were consuming the same volume of gasoline today that they were in 1998, when it was a quarter of the price, that would be even more amazing. People had to find ways to cut their consumption, so it's not surprising to see this fall. How have total sales in dollars, rather than volume, changed during this period? That would be more interesting. If households are spending 75% less on gas today than they were in 1998, that would be truly terrifying.
Federal Tax, State tax , Green Tax then Tax on those taxes. More taxes less consumption.
The power to tax is the power to destroy.
I came to post this discrepany. Bottom line people are spending nearly the same amount of their income on gas as they have in the past, it just means they drive less.
The velocity of money is what controls prosperity..
Cut and dried!
Excellent article. I especially like this sentence because it's exactly what I have been saying for several years:
This IS exactly what's happening in the UK & EU too. In the UK it's masked by a property price boom deliberately manufactured by Chancellor Osborne & PM Cameron in the run-up to the May/2015 general election.
There is no growth. There is no recovery. GDP is negative but the truth is being hidden by false government statistics peddled thru MSM.
"Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall"...
but ... but ... I always enjoyed teaching granny to suck eggs ;-)
You realize how factually challenged it is, do you?
The key to the whole line of crap is that the refiners have sold off their retail outlets and the few retail outlets owned by the majors is the statistic.
Look at the Indians and Pakis that bought the retail end to see where the gasoline sales went to.
It is a lot more than that and all of you should know of your local situation.
The most breathless POS of all time on ZH.
The EIA DOES NOT KEEP TRACK OF THE RETAIL SALE OF GAS!!!!!!!!!!!! One of the authors bitches was they do not keep track of the "DEMAND"..... (read that as retail sales....) but they do keep track of the PRODUCTION going out the door of the REFINERIES that have not be decommissioned...... and this number (which is pretty hard to skew) is what they use to estimate retail sales...
Production = Inventory + Demand (which includes RETAIL SALES in the US and Gasoline EXPORTS!!!!.)
So what the author doesn't touch on is the Export of Finished Motor Goods to other counties... This is a substantial number!!!
LOOK AT THIS GRAPH and the trend!!!!
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MGFEXUS1&f=M
If there is a drop of 5% consumption a month and the production stays the same. After say 8-11 months there will be a no where left to put the production.
I am glad it is a production issue and that it is not an increase in people buying hybrids or electric cars.
Or Maybe the drop in Cosumptiom is due to all those GM cars going it to be fixed due to the Recalls
One point in the article I would like to change is:
the U.S. government, which (among other things) leads the world in the manufacture of statistics
To
the U.S. government, which (among other things) leads the world in the manipulation of statistics
I love good doom porn as much as the next guy, but:
Just like the article a week or so ago on Unsold Cars; this article is B.S.
I kept waiting for the actual data of: "We went from a peak of 4.4x down to 1.1x today"; and it never came.
Come on Tyler's, you can do better than this. I don't want to see ZH getting sloppy like this, there is plenty of real doom out there.
gave up the car in 2008 when gas hit 5 dollars by me and now my consumption has dropped by 100 percent as well
The chart is not US consumption. It is more nearly US production of gasoline.
You might want to reread the article, think about that statement and edit it.... lol
US PRODUCTION = INVENTORY + CONSUMPTION
Seeing a greater frequency of clickbait articles designed to scare.
Money does funny stuff to facts, huh?
I might need to start looking for a blog with more...integrity.
Might as well sign on Alex Jones as a contributor if you're going to go this route.
Try Jesse's Cafe... on the left side he has links to interesting reads.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
Poppycock!
Donate bitcoinz NOW to support Obamacare against abortions to disarm Syrian Al Qaeda, says Krugman, to boost GDP.
ALSO: new digital currency of the future, AGWcoinz! Hedge yourself against only holding gold which is backed by nothing.
The economic recovery that the media and talking heads have been bantering around does not exist and is just a myth. A manipulated stock market distorted by recent economic policy hides and mask the real truth, in many ways it is ground zero in the war to convince us all is well.
The American people and Main Street will tell you they are far from convinced that it is smooth sailing ahead. Huge weakness in the economy has been shown by numbers that barely get by even after record amounts of stimulus. Fact is if QE or the massive government deficit spending that props up our economy is removed it will fold like a cheap umbrella.
Recent changes in how the GDP is figured , which boosted growth thus reducing the debt to growth ratio, and attempts to spin poor numbers regarding employment have been met with skepticism. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/10/myth-of-economic-recovery.html