This week brings some key events and releases in DMs, including US FOMC (Goldman expects $10bn tapering, in line with consensus), IP, CPI, and Philly Fed (expect 13.5), EA final May CPI (expect 0.50%), and MP decisions in Norway and Switzerland (expect no change in either).
Among other releases, next week in DMs includes [on Monday] US IP and capacity utilization, Empire manufacturing, and Euro area CPI; [on Tuesday] US CPI and Housing starts, UK CPI; [on Wednesday] US FOMC and CA, Euro area construction, and Japan trade balance ; [on Thursday] US Philly Fed inaugurates what we call the active data period of the month, MP Decisions in Norway and Switzerland, NZ 1Q GDP (expect 1.4% qoq); and [on Friday] Euro area consumer confidence and CA, UK PSNB. The week also brings a few policy-maker speeches, including EU’s Barroso and RBA’s Kent, but most attention will center on the post-FOMC press conference by Fed’s Chair Yellen on Wednesday.
Monday, June 16
- Events: Speeches by EU’s Barroso; RBA’s Kent; US Supreme Court expected to announce decision on Argentina’s request of review of pari-passu claim; Hungarian Supreme Court completes FX loan rulings; Iran - World Powers Nuclear Talks in Vienna begin.
- United States | Industrial Production MoM (May): consensus 0.50%, previous -0.60%
- United States | Capacity Utilization (May): consensus 78.9%, previous 78.6%
- United States | Empire Manufacturing (Jun): Consensus 15, previous 19.01
- Euro area | CPI Harmonized YoY (May F): previous (f) 0.5%
- India | Wholesale Prices YoY (May): Consensus 5.40%, previous 5.20%
- Russia | MP Decision: Expect rates on hold (at 7.50%, in line with consensus).
- Also interesting: [DM] US Manufacturing Production, TIC Flows, Homebuilder’s Survey; Denmark PPI; UK Rightmove House Prices; NZ Westpac Consumer Confidence [EM] Czech Republic PPI; Turkey Unemployment; Nigeria Trade Balance; Israel CA; Poland Core CPI; Brazil IGP-10 Inflation; Colombia Retail Sales and IP; Peru Unemployment; Ukraine Retail Trade.
Tuesday, June 17
- Events: Speech by RBI’s Rajan.
- United States | CPI MoM (May): consensus 0.20%, previous 0.30%
United States | Housing Starts MoM (May): consensus -3.7%, previous 13.2%
- Euro area | ZEW Survey Expectations (Jun): Previous 55.2
- United Kingdom | CPI YoY (May): previous 1.80%
- United Kingdom | RPI YoY (May): previous 2.50%
- Japan | Minutes of MP Decision
- Japan | Machine Tool Orders YoY (May F): Previous 24.10%
- Australia | Minutes of MP Decision
- Also interesting: [DM] US Building Permits; Italy Trade Balance; Spain Labour Costs; Sweden PES Unemployment Rate; UK PPI Output and ONS House Prices; Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales and Goods Imports, Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports, Hong Kong Unemployment [EM] Poland Employment and Average Gross Wages; Colombia Trade Balance.
Wednesday, June 18
- Events: Post-FOMC Press Conference by Fed’s Chair Yellen; US BEA releases CA revisions.
- United States | FOMC Decision: Goldman expect rates on hold (at 0.25%) and a further $10bn tapering in the pace of asset purchases (to $35bn per month, with a reduction equally split between Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities), in line with consensus. Per Goldman: "The economic data have, on balance, been encouraging since the April FOMC meeting, inflation has firmed a bit, and financial conditions have eased to their most accommodative level since early 2008. The committee is likely to make some upgrades to its description of the economic outlook in the post-meeting statement and its economic projections. Although the committee will need to reduce its 2014 real GDP growth forecast to take into account the Q1 disappointment, we would expect the committee to reduce its unemployment rate forecast and lift its inflation forecast slightly. These upgrades would, by themselves, suggest that the funds rate projections (or “dots”) might drift up and that the press conference might accordingly tilt towards the hawkish end. Three considerations, however, would point to a more neutral message: (1) the change in the FOMC’s composition, on balance, probably entails a dovish shift; (2) the committee’s projections of the longer-term funds rate might come down a bit; and (3) at the margin Chair Yellen might have become more comfortable in steering the monetary policy message in the direction of her own views at the post-meeting press conference. Taken together, we therefore expect a broadly neutral message."
- United States | Current Account Balance (1Q): Consensus -$96.6B, previous -$81.1B
- Sweden | Economic Tendency Survey (Jun): Previous 98.8
- United Kingdom | Minutes of MP Decision Meeting
- Euro area | Construction Output MoM (Apr): Previous -0.60% (5.20% yoy)
- Japan | Trade Balance (May): Previous (r) -¥811.7B
- South Africa | CPI YoY (May): consensus 6.50%, previous 6.10%
- Brazil | IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM (Jun): previous 0.58% (6.31% yoy)
- Also interesting: [DM] Canada Wholesale Trade Sales; Japan Dept. Store Sales; Australia Conf. Board and Westpac Leading Index; NZ Balance of Payments; South Korea PPI [EM] China Property Prices; Ukraine IP; South Africa CA; South Africa Retail Sales; Poland IP and PPI; Ukraine IP.
Thursday, June 19
- Events: RBA Bulletin.
- United States | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Jun): consensus 14.0, previous 15.4
- United States | Leading Index (May): Consensus 0.60%, previous 0.40%
- Norway | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (at 1.50%, same as consensus and previous)
- Switzerland | MP Decision: We expect no change in policy (at 0.0% for SNB 3-Month Libor Target Rate)
- United Kingdom | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (May): previous 1.80% (7.70% yoy)
- New Zealand | GDP SA QoQ (1Q): consensus 1.10%, previous 0.90%
- Japan | All Industry Activity Index MoM (Apr): Previous 1.50%
- Poland | Minutes of MP Decision
- Mexico | Aggregate Supply and Demand (1Q): Previous 0.40% qoq (1.80% yoy)
- Colombia | GDP YoY (1Q): consensus 5.10%, previous 4.90%
- Also interesting: [DM] US Jobless Claims; Italy CA; Netherlands Unemployment; UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey; Japan Leading and Coincident Index; NZ CA to GDP Ratio; Hong Kong Composite Interest Rate [EM] Philippines BoP; Russia Unemployment, Investment Statistics, Real Average Wages and Retail Sales; Argentina Trade Balance.
Friday, June 20
- Canada | CPI SA MoM (May): Previous 0.20% (2.00% yoy)
- Euro area | Consumer Confidence (June P): Previous -7.1
- Euro area | Current Account NSA (Apr): Previous 20.9B
- United Kingdom | PSNB ex Interventions (May): Previous 7.4B
- Malaysia | CPI YoY (May): Previous 3.40%
- Colombia | MP Decision: We expect a 25bp hike in the Overnight Lending Rate (to 4.00%, same as consensus; vs. previous 3.75%)
- Mexico | Minutes of MP Decision
- Also interesting: [DM] Canada Retail Sales; France Wages; Germany PPI; Italy Industrial Orders; Denmark Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales; NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence Index [EM] Taiwan Export Orders; Mexico Retail Sales; Russia Real Disposable Income, Wages, Retail Sales and Unemployment.
And the key highlights in table format: