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GDP Disaster: Final Q1 GDP Crashes To -2.9%, Lowest Since 2009, Far Below The Worst Expectations
Remember when in January 2014, Q1 GDP was expected to rise 2.6%? Well, here comes the final Q1 GDP revision and it's a doozy: at -2.9%, far below the -1.8% expected and well below the -1.0% second revision, it is an absolute disaster, and is the worst print since Q1 2009.
And while a bad GDP print was largely expected, the driver wasn't: personal consumption expenditures somehow crashed from 3.1% to just 1.0%, far below the 2.4% expected, meaning that all hope of a consumer recovery is dead. Finally, as a reminder, US GDP has never fallen more than 1.5% except during or just before an NBER-defined recession since quarterly GDP records began in 1947. Good luck department of truth propaganda machine, because even assuming 3% growth every other quarter in 2014 means 2014 GDP will be 1.5% at best!
GDP long-term:
And GDP broken down by components:
For some context, this is a 6 standard deviation miss - as economists were striongly biased to the upside beat...
Do you believe in miracles?
Source: Dept of Commerce
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Yen, that's not quite accurate, we have to wait until after bonus season, then we'll see if any are forced to jump!
In the mean time, you might want to oil your nail gun and get it ready.
I hear they sell quite high on eBay when the bankers are buying.
DaddyO
That herd may have been sufficiently culled for the year.
This shoud easily fuel the next move higher.
And so.........
The great unwind begins
Doubt it. Springs that are wound too tight break suddenly and violently.
Stocks getting crushed... oh wait, no they're not. Funny, that. Gold is red though so team NYFED is #winning. I remember the days when such horrendous data would be negative for risk. Reccession and wars ain';t what they used to be.
Does ES make it back to green before the open? FUBAR
Fed made two large bets and they were both wrong. They are dumb money. So they will keep adding.
Not wrong for those the FED actually answers to . . .
This kind of data would have seen long term treasuries decline by at least 10 basis points in "simpler times" - not with the NY FED at the helm, looking out for all derivative bets of their masters.
Did the government create algos and HFT to accomplish their objective of spreading "optimism" via markets?
Goldman's "take" on GDP tells you all you need to know about who is running this shit show.
Goldman: US Q1 GDP -2.9%, this is much larger downward revision. Durable goods is also weaker. Worst quarterly q/q number outside a recession since 1947 - but GS says not to read too much in to it
Reminder to self... More crazy pills - less cowbell.
So how much growth we need in remaining quarters to hit 3% and over annualized growth form perma optimists like zandi
5%. -2.9+5+5+5=12.1 12.1/4=3.025
Five percent per quarter for the rest of the year?
From a public policy perspective (aka the one-party system), it's easier to promote the idea of a recession, blame Obama and the dems, usher in a new congress controlled by Republicans and start over, this time padding the coffers and wallets of friends of the GOP.
So, figure -1.5 to -2.3 for Q2 (we'll have the first estimate in about a month's time), crash the stock market (I mean, the current bull market is 64 months old), start a bear market which will be more reflective of global realities, and set sail for the 2016 presidential election.
President Rand Paul. That's about our only hope. Get out and vote, often and early.
Rand Paul is like GWB, he only proves that his daddy's dick worked. Ron won't be around to keep him on the straight and narrow. I've donated a lot of money to Ron, but I'm skeptical of junior.
Any reference to the Bushes was for breeding comparison only, not suggesting Rand is in that gene cesspool.
"Get out and vote, often and early."
It sounds like someone failed Electoral College.
Taper will stop, and QE will expand to over $100 billion/month by end of year. The way the Fed sees it, they can expand the balance sheet to at least 20 trillion. That would allow them to kick the can down road at least 5 years.
Five years? Do you really think we have that long? I hope so: I need more, um, stuff. You know, to loose in a tragic boating accident.
Like IRS emails, baby!
My hard drive crashed with all of my relevant tax information. I'm distraught. I really wanted to pay my "fair share".
When my hard drive crashed, it took my APMEX password with it...
Current account deficit? What's that?
/s
choke on it Barry
you too Yellen
We need a parade.
The more negative the numbers, the more funding they will get to fix the problem.
It is how "successful" community organizers turn a frown into a smile.
Broken Windows = profit center !
This is how they 'run' Detroit.
Ain't Fiat great.
Charlie Rangel sez God sent us Obama, so I'm sure he can get this economy going.........oops, God sent us the flood & the plagues also.
Who would ever listen to that greasy scumbag?
Apperantly, 22,674 people in the Bronx!
DaddyO
Black rat beats a Brown rat in Harlem..
Don't worry oil exports and Zero care will save us.
there's more!!!!
Ever been to Thailand???
Thailand is known because of the hookers and beautifull weather.
But!!!
AMERICA HAS CHILD PROSTITUTION!!!!
AMERICA CAN BECOME or is THE POSTERCHILD OF CHILD PORN!!!
I'm sure pedophiles are a market...
and than there's weed and stuff...
you know... all it needs is a businessplan...
Woman arrested for CP:
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/documents/teen-porn-diva-busted-for-underag...
Associated business plan:
http://www.infowars.com/woman-says-dhs-forced-her-to-strip-naked-at-gunp...
BULLISH!
Dow 100,000
Unemployment to 0%.....with no one participating.
Robots have feelings too.
i wonder what the "real" number was?
-10ish, mass destruction
"-10ish, mass destruction"
Add in real inflation of +/-10% and what do we really have?
I GUESS THEY WOULD CALL IT A RECOVERY, HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAH
They should've said GDP doubled and the bull statue on Wall St shit out a 3-ton bucket of Skittles. Nobody's fucking paying attention anyway.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oavMtUWDBTM
The end of this current iteration of civilization couldn't be more fun. Watching the chickens run around. People sure are a riot.
+
Well it appears the" pushing on a string" theroy was correct. End result is all this liquiity saved us from armageddon but not much else. Well wait, it did make the 1% a lot richer!
Looks like the string is pushing back. At least their not lying about everything!
Dow up 300 points today.
Bring in the hookers and blow.
A blow and suck... Jing Yang shit... I LOVE IT!!
okay... it looks bad...
and maybe next Q will also look bad...
...
I'm lost...
...
can't we blame somebody?
...
nobody?...
FUCK IT!
I'LL DO IT!!
GIVE ME THE NEWSPAPER...
SEE THAT??! CLOUDY WITH A 5% CHANCE OF RAIN!!!
HOW COULD ANYBODY MISS THAT????
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOXtWxhlsUg
Animal House
I can't wait to see what the 5year bond auction results are later.
Is that you Billy Gross?
..ten year is responding well- down to 2.54 going into the stretch.. who wins- real fiat money or hope this is working?..
It's ok...unemployment is 6.5%..BLS told me so.
Producers are loving these higher EVERYTHING costs even though the Fed says no inflation...
The goal was never for things to get better...it was to pretend they have been getting better just enough but not enough just to keep the money printing and ZIRP going for years until they got so bad again on paper unavoidably that then they could restart the whole process.
Ignoring the fake unemployment is proof positive.
Fuck it... I may finally just buy the dip too today.
we obviously need more immigration, you know some how that helps our economy, more poor on wealfare, and more h1b's to lower wages, which by any mainstream pol or bankster mean prosperity for all..gut your economy off shore your jobs regulate and tax everything people do, and prosperity is gauranteed, folks on left and right you don't know what the defination of treason is or that you are not in the club who got the benefit of this. this neg gdp with trillions of debt dollars wasted on the .01%..revolution revolution the time has come.
When you crash by such large % , it gives you the opportunity to grow a few %, even though over-all as a whole, the economy has contracted, next few quarters they can post "record" gdp growth statistically even though its meaningless.
So I'm confused....is this good news or bad news?
This is not a recession! I repeat this is not a recession! Go about your business citizens all is well with the eCONomy. Some additional good news is that the chocolate rations have been increased 10% from 100 grams to 80 grams. Have a nice day.
This has been a broadcast from the ministry of truth. Copyright (c) 2009 American Society of Propaganda and Disinformation. All rights reserved.
Please don't use the R-word. We'd prefer you to call it "UnGrowth", or "DoublePlusUnGrowth". The R-word is so negative. it agitates the Proles.
I'm so fucking depression.
We're just rightsizing the GDP in order to maximize our nominal competitiveness on a going forward basis.
Despite what the politicians and the corporate media would have you believe, there is more to an actual economy than stock prices. I know, I know; that's radical crazy tinfoil-hat talk. I'm a digital dickweed on a fringe blog, and I should probably go back to Russia because I hate freedom and America. But when Corporation A buys back its own stocks, or Corporation B trades worthless mortgage-backed derivatives to the Fed for money which they then use to buy T-bonds, on which they collect interest, it's not actual economic activity, sorry.
But we can't do anything that would actually help the real economy, because that would involve letting some major campaign donors go bankrupt. And letting any of the gains of the past 30 years go to the 90% of the population that hasn't seen any gains and would spend any money they got on, you know, goods and services, wouldn't do anything to help boost bonuses or stock in AAPL, AMZ, or any of the indicators smart people look at.
We're getting closer to the part of the game in Monopoly where the one kid has all the money, properties, hotels and houses and all the other kids go outside to toss the football around.
"when Corporation A buys back its own stocks, or Corporation B trades worthless mortgage-backed derivatives to the Fed for money which they then use to buy T-bonds, on which they collect interest, it's not actual economic activity"
...Have you told anyone else this?
Are we still to assume Obamacare spending inflated this number 1.0%?
No but his golf trips and family vacations did.
bad news is good news.. S&P 2000 by 330 Friday
i dont see another winter season on the horizon for at least the next 5 months
3 months
if you live in Alaska
Its winter down under..
Consumer economy requires consumers to grow.
Consumers need money to consume and everyone agrees that wages are flat.
How would GDP grow in a consumer economy when wages are flat?
How difficult is it to understand?
Wages? Pfft! That's so old-school. Use credit, man!
/sarc
SO PETER SCHIFF WAS RIGHT YET AGAIN ???
The more counterfeit that is exchanged into the economy for productive work, the less the economy grows.
When there eventually becomes a deflation of counterfeit, then the economy will grow.
This is better than ow my balls
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a86cQobU-n4
wtf
So they're not egregiously faking GDP the way the BLS fakes unemployment? One has to wonder why ...
I think that somepoint in the near past we started hearing more and more real numbers, and fewer faked - at some point the reporting has to be brought back to reality. And I think now is as good a time as any - this admin's objective is to destroy the US economy, and if bringing back the real numbers help to do this, or show this is occuring then more power to them.
Obama, et al, of course needed the market to zoom up during his 1st 4 years in order to spout and to help get relected. This time there is no reason for him to fake the economics - it actually serves him better to have piss poor economics so he can impose additional regs, etc.
Now, whether we will ever see a down market again based on economics or fundamentals, is entirely a different point...
"So they're not egregiously faking GDP the way the BLS fakes unemployment? One has to wonder why ..."
Of course they are egregiously faking GDP numbers.
This IS the sugar coated gummy candy and angel food cake version.
...You didn't think Obama was gonna serve up flaming asbestos barbedwire suppositories just as congress gets ready to depart for a summer of fundraising and yachting didja?
Brace yourselves for QE infinity X infinity.
But da TeeBee tell me world is good.....more cheetohs.
Hate to say I told you so to the glass is half full, economy is doing great, all's well crowd, but, I TOLD YOU SO! 3% 10yr tsy at the end of 2013 was a gift and won't be seen again for a long, long time. Thank a Regulation spewing hand tying, growth strapping (Dem) politician this fall and Vote em all out! Rinos too!
They are ALL RINOs. Never vote for an incumbent, ever again.
The beauty of all this neo-serfdom is the realization to be had by every serf as they begin to realize how disconnected they are to the power and wealth structure. The costs are exceeding the benefits and though the debt is supposed to be owned by the serfs, there is the potential they will quit it.
Now, if for some reason it became widely known, that England still owns the USA and its' debt, that we are merely british slaves on their plantation, things could get very interesting. Americans may be gullible, but they can be a real pain in the ass if they get riled and have access to some real leadership.
The Millenials are starting to demonstrate terrorist actions: they aren't buying cable, smoking tabacco, interested in financing SS and medicare. They cannot afford obamacare and student debt has become a generational issue. They like real food, can be very tolerant and may be too educated with too little to do.
With this much debt, it ceases to be the People's problem and it changes to the creditor's problem. Eventually, the only collection method left will be confiscation and that may just get people fired up. The IMF has been talking weath confiscation, countries are putting capital confiscation on the books. How long until neighbors bar the gates and guns get pointed at faces whom have never seen real rebellion?
The Elites mght have put too many nails in the coffin, the sides might just be tearing apart...
Your thesis sounds promising if you ask me. The Millenials are encouraging and I hope they keep it up. It's hard to threaten them with your bullshit when their finances can be summed up with the simple equation of 0+0=0.
Millenials didn't just materialize they are the result of boomers screwing up followed by X'rs trying to not be quit as stupid followed by situation impossible. It's just a natural progression that could be plotted alongside the demise of the dollar and the stupid fucking FED.
Youth are ingenious and rebellious by nature. All the devices you think you are enslaving them with, just might get turned against you. As they drift into narrow social channels, they might just lose contact AND control. Especially if they have little invested and are burdened with debt, not all of which is their own...
The great thing about millennials is they are still opened minded, which can be both good and bad, considering how naive and easily influenced they are. But one thing is for sure, you have a better chance helping a 22-year-old see that he was tricked and lied to and that the government is the enemy than you would trying to convince a 60-something year-old statist of either red or blue flavoring.
Reminds me of a conversation I had with my George W. Bush-loving, check-the-box Republican father-in-law during the early stages of a 9-hour drive coming back from a fishing trip. I was trying to convince him that W should be in pound-me-in-the-ass prison with Obama as his cellmate, to which he replied, "You're not going to convince a 65-year-old man of anything".
"Not even with facts?", I quipped.
Silence for 8 more hours. That was a long drive.
Working in the BK world, I had a gentleman in his late 60s/early 70s make a passing remark about how banks no longer cared about people, just money. He hoped we could go back to when local bank officers lived in the community and cared about it enough to not lend people into unrepayable debt. Then made a remark that confirmed he was Red Team his whole life, but I got the sense even he was starting to figure out shit ain't right.
Also, helps that he had nearly $50k in revolving credit card debt he was eliminating through BK. When I remarked that the business model for credit cards was to stuff people full of lines of credit and hope they maxed 'em out, and paid nothing but 'finance charges' till they croaked, he said "wasn't like that when I was your age. If you couldn't afford a loan, the local banker told you that and didn't lend you the money."
How quaint.
Is confiscation part of GDP calculation?
my fix: return control of economy to successful small businessmen..if they promise to
1. end the fed
2. break up the TBTF
3. jail the criminals at the heart of the economic terrorism, hint corzine and fed chairmen
4. promote american business thru rational tariff policy by which I mean 25% after 3 years then 35% on manufactured items
5. tax any co who off shores american jobs for the loss of income to gov and workers
6. many here can add ideas, this is just a start at a rational economy.
Very Nasty Stagflation, yes.
Makes Jimmy Carter look like a boy scout; but I don't care, let it all hang out.
This print shows the negative value of a PhD in economics. At some point, some genius at the Fed is going to stand up and say, "Hey, maybe we shouldn't be driving the cost of living higher if we want the economy to improve?"
Maybe Henry Ford and the folks at Walmart had it right all along. Lower costs and lower prices drive business.
Don't hold your breath for a "genius" at the Fed.
;) Yes, meant sarcastically.
"Maybe Henry Ford and the folks at Walmart had it right all along."
http://corporate.ford.com/news-center/press-releases-detail/677-5-dollar...
"The $5-a-day Workday
After the success of the moving assembly line, Henry Ford had another transformative idea: in January 1914, he startled the world by announcing that Ford Motor Company would pay $5 a day to its workers. The pay increase would also be accompanied by a shorter workday (from nine to eight hours). While this rate didn't automatically apply to every worker, it more than doubled the average autoworker's wage.
While Henry's primary objective was to reduce worker attrition—labor turnover from monotonous assembly line work was high—newspapers from all over the world reported the story as an extraordinary gesture of goodwill.
Thousands of Workers Flock to DetroitAfter Ford’s announcement, thousands of prospective workers showed up at the Ford Motor Company employment office. People surged toward Detroit from the American South and the nations of Europe. As expected, employee turnover diminished. And, by creating an eight-hour day, Ford could run three shifts instead of two, increasing productivity.
Henry Ford had reasoned that since it was now possible to build inexpensive cars in volume, more of them could be sold if employees could afford to buy them. The $5 day helped better the lot of all American workers and contributed to the emergence of the American middle class."
Notice that date: January of 1914. ...A little over a hundred years ago..
Walmart probably could double their employees wages and stay in business; but, even if it could -and sell millions of tons more product to their own employees over the course of decades in doing so- it never will.
The folks at Walmart should in no way be compared with the sanguine ingenuities and domestic growth policies of Henry Ford.
Gross Dismal Performance.
Didnt these scum suckers tell us consumer confidence was at an all time high yesterday?
If you are one of the scumbags in this admin then you are elated! Social unrest soon so they can suspend elections and impose a nice dictatorship. Everything going as planned.
I keep telling my wife that Obumbles will always be our prez...
sold tza premarket, then gdp hit, for a moment I thought left money on the table, then look what happened green green...
I said back in 2008 that Obama would be the last President we ever had.
I suspect his handlers have other plans for him. You know, erasing the evidence trail, tying up loose ends, etc.
If any of us had any guts we would show up at 1600 pa ave and demand to see the president who "works" for us, but as Miriam Carey (god rest her soul) found out :even being an unarmed single black mother with her child in the car, is no protection from thugs in uniform. serfs are US.
Why is learning so fucking painful?
I told myself when Obama was first elected that this could be the transformative moment for our country as the left would vastly over reach and the disaster would set them back a hundred years. What I did not count on was the blatant media bias and the willing denial of the American people to just roll over. Something for nothing always wins until the bill MUST be PAID. How it ends is beyond me, but it ain't going to be pretty.
There is no economic recovery because all the efforts of politicians, government, central banks etc are focused on saving banks instead of targeting job creation which is the only way economy can recover.
The weakness in the democratic process ensures the victory of the Wall Street over the Real Economy for the foreseeable future. Things are definitely going to get much much worse before they get better for the real economy i.e. for more than 90% of the population.
www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html
I'm sure it's coincidence that we saw a large sell off yesterday. Rally today no doubt.
I'm going long! Who's with me!? (Lulz)
we don't need
no stinking GDP
we got the Fed....
"we don't need
no stinking GDP
we got the Fed...."
That's probably a good thing. ...Cause it says right here dat You ain't gettin' any GDorP.
And this could have all been avoided if
the TBTF bailouts had not been so meager,
the invasions and occupations of foreign countries more numerous,
the NSA surveillance been kept secret,
and ....
well, none of this would have happened if the other party had been in charge.
It's all the fault of economics professors.
Paul Krugman says all they have to do is pay people to dig a few million holes , then pay some other people to fill them back in again. Simply print enough cash to pay them all. GDP Problem solved.
A grand society as envisioned by a keynesian dolt that would've left the world better if his whore of a mother had aborted him. (Or, if we would have been so lucky as to have had his fate being one of the unfortunate droplets off of those used up beef curtains.)
I went out last night and threw some rocks through my neighbor's windows, everyone's gotta do their fair share.
Thank you for your cooperation. Now we're going to label you a terrorist and throw you into prison for the next 20 years. Prison guards need jobs so their union can make campaign contributions, you know.
They changed it so prisoners count towards GDP....
Actually that WOULD work IF each hole had a politician, FED member etc in it.
I also think we need to turn our attention away from politicians and to corporations which is how they got there in the first place. They're like trying to get rid of grasshoppers in a draught with a fly swatter.
In order to put enough people to work digging we simply must include lawyers!
Unfortunately all that leaves us with is holes diggers and fillers that will become unemployed if we don't pay them to do more. Too bad we can't fill Krugman's head with something better than the dirt currently inhabiting the space between his ears.
The market is up which leads me to believe that the GDP numbers were fudged downward as a reason to keep QE on for as long as possible.
No the markets are up because the digital zero creators are buying the fucking garbage. Your other idea sounds good but the shipping data doesn't support it.
They'll do QE no matter what and just spew bullshit and buy stocks all the way till complete destruction.
The market is up which leads me to believe that the GDP numbers were fudged downward as a reason to keep QE on for as long as possible.
The "market" is up on manipulation by algos and Fed funding of asset bubbles. GDP is down because ACA has sucked up all the money that otherwise would have been spent on "dream building" for the average Joe. Take into account the cost of eating and driving to work and you have recession or if you look from far enough away from the fog the actual depression we are mired in. Good work central planners everywhere... Fucking humps!
Everything looking fine in Washington DC. Still money flowing from big-money lobbyist.
Washington and Wall Street are always immune.
Nothing changes until K Street burns.
LOL Dow is up!
And i still think Q1>Q2 ~- 3%... Why? Can you find 1 thing,that actually go up or positive>?
Better than expected, green shoots bitchez.
/ sarc
look at some of this MOMO shit ! Zillow up 2% Zuilily up 8%
One word: Incompetent.
I'd go with "Destructive", or "Malevolent", or "Intentional". Jimmy Carter was Incompentent. This guy is intentionally destructive. Why don't we just call him "EVIL".
Cloward-Piven
1. EPA extra-legal rulings check
2. Border Invasion check
3. Complete mayhem in the Levant check
4. Piss off Russia check
5. Onerous Healthscam Law check
6. UN Recruting gun grabbers check
7. Stock up on stuff to kill unruly sitizens check
8. Finish design on new military uniform to do
9. Put moar stuff on list. to do
Russia/Gazprom to setup a new Yellow Stream and Brown Stream under the Atlantic flowing West next week. To be funded by all the banks bringing their deposits back from abroad.
Second, lots of conflicts across many borders this Summer to keep things active in the Mid-East. Lots of frequent flyer miles for central management.
The FED's experiment was NOT an experiment...it was a carefully conceived and executed plan to increase the wealth of those in power in advance of a known, certain economic crash.
This is just a dry run for -6% GDP figure and more!
Seeing how the Markets react (Cough) HFT and oligoes
Here come some really phony figures for Q2, otherwise they will have to admit recession.....everything can be adjusted "later"
I think they will post huge numbers way way up, then the hard drive will crash and they will not be able to adjust them later.
How to subsidize and destroy America Econ 101.
-Barry Soetoro
202: destroy the United States, and salt the ground.
What did they initially report GDP as? LOL
It's the weather, damn it! Just too much snow and cold in the winter, too much rain in the Spring. I bet we'll have too much heat in the Summer. And the Fall will be a DISASTER!
Otherwise, the economy is well, the Obamacare is doing miracles (and all detractors and pesimists will be shot by God's hand). It's just bad that the President's maximum term is only 8 years. But maybe that could be fixed too.
Yeah, too many falling leaves in the fall will lower GDP
I bet it gets so bad this fall the leaves come off the trees.
No problem
PPT is in da house!!
Have no fear
Buy on
OMG, I just looked at VLO, it's too late to sell, I will have to ride it down, ahhhhhhhhh!
OTOH, my miners are a good hedge.
How are we supposed to make economic decisions when all these F'ers do is lie to us?
No One makes economic decisions while drunk at a casino.
Now shaddup and throw all your retirement bones dat Capital One cash advance moolah on red or black and pray!
'Better get to work, Mr. Kevin Henry!' Stawcks uber alles!
VISA save the Dow
Isn't VISA owned by the criminal banks?
You can fake it for only so long. There is no more wiggle room. This president by opening borders is allowing free entry for poor and Sunni Wahhabi terrorists. It's sad to see our GDP finally give into fake after fake. Then the S&P levels off and spoils the Fake and exposes reality.
We are being destroyed by this president while Wahhabi Sunnis are given huge increases in Visas, and passports!!! Why would that happen? Aren't the open borders enough. We talk about the kids who when they stay, and they will, bring 7 adults average per child. Tens of thousands of kids+ X 7 = millions of poor taking away from our citizen poor!! The Black and already poor minority will be devastated. Our middle class, at the lowest percentage in our history, will be devastated. These numbers are bad they are devastating to the underclass and middle class of our nation. AND it is this President that is destroying America.
You are so right...I mean up until January 2009 this country was hitting on all cylinders. Uh-huh......right.
Sunni Wahabi terrorists?
You realize our border is with Mexico, right?
I knew it was sunni in Mexico; but, I didn't know it was sunni La Razhabi.
Why not just send them back over the border at Santa Medina? ( hic' )
Ok Otis, you go get the key and lock yourself in till you sober up...
I fully expect GDP to come in at 7% for Q2.
*cue laughter* /sarc