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Checkers Vs Chess: The Reason Europe Is Imploding On "Russian" Sanctions
The West's leaders are full of lawyers, Putin is ex-KGB. If ever there was an example of him playing chess while the West plays checkers, the following chart is it. Despite Western protestations that its sanctions will hurt Russia more than Europe this morning, one look at Europe's huge net trade balance with Russia for food and it's clear who is really going to feel the pain. As Martin Armstrong noted previously, "Putin has responded to [Western] sanctions as any really smart chess-player would - you get the supporters of your adversary to jump-ship." What better way to crack the 'stop-Putin' alliance than to force Europe into trade deficits and squeeze their economies (especially Germany)?
Chart h/t S.M.
Russia is by far Europe's largest net export partner for food.. and that highlighted column is about to disappear through Russian sanctions, likely pressing Europe into a trade deficit.
Chess vs Checkers indeed...
* * *
As an aside, it is not just Europe that Putin is pressuring, he is trying to turn US industry against President Obama also...
Russian flag carrier Aeroflot's low-cost arm Dobrolet has signed a contract with America’s Boeing to deliver 16 new planes, despite suspending flights due to Western sanctions.
Beginning in 2017 the company will receive 16 Boeing 737-800 airliners, after a leasing deal for two similar aircraft fell through due to sanctions, Russian media reported Wednesday.
"From 2017 on there will be deliveries directly from the factory in Seattle. Yesterday we signed an agreement for the delivery of 16 new aircraft in 2017-2018 and paid a deposit," Dobrolet CEO Andrei Kalmykov said in an interview with Gazeta.ru.
On August 3, Dobrolet announced it was suspending flights after it was sanctioned by the EU because it flew between Crimea and Russia.
Of course, we are sure Ex-Im Bank will also help - but wait until President Obama tries to stall Boeing from delivering...
* * *
Chess vs Checkers...
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Uhhh I believe that it is spelled genius. I thought that all lefties attended college.
When someone is so obviously a troll, best thing to do is ignore - go on to something more useful.
I realise that I need to take my own advice!
He is pretty good at using stats to lie. Work for bls?
Coletrane,
You said: "the level of stupidity of some of these posters is astounding."
Which poster are you talking about it?
Please don't confuse us with strateegery.
That's right, cn, we're the deep thinkers
CN13 - AS LONG AS YOU VOTE FOR THE RIGHT WING FUCKERS, YOU'RE PART OF THE strateegeerie! There, I fixed the caplock just for you. Now you can go and tell your boyfriends you met a guy online.
Yet another reaction formation.
Accept your inner gayness and move on.
@youneedareallife
Gee, I wonder how Obozo manage to increase the national debt by over 2x with such spend thrift policies? Didn't ZH go over this replete with charts concerning the disparity in wealth between the middle class and the 1% yesterday? If I remember correctly Obozo didn't fair so well in that chart compared to every other administration in the past 40+ years.
HEY CHICAGO, YOU HAVE NO INDEPENDENT THOUGHTS, PROBABLY ONLY VOTED GOP TEA SHIT.
"W" LEFT A $1.7 TRILLION DEFECIT - LOOK IT UP. GET YOUR CALCULATOR AND SEE HOW QUICKLY THAT GETS TO WHAT WE GOT NOW.
IN CASE YOU DON'T REMEMBER, BUSH BLEW MILLIONS OF JOBS IN HIS LAST 6 MONTHS, AMAXINGLY WHILE HE WAS BLOWING CHENEY.
YOU DO REMEMBER THE STOCK AND HOUSING MARKET CRASH IN 2008, RIGHT?
DO EVEN KNOW WHAT "REPLETE" MEANS?
wE'RE YOU IN JUNIOR HIGH WHEN 25-6-4 WAS A HIT?
What can I say, but this: Save your breath, you'll need it blowing up your CFM blow up doll/date tonight.
Idiot!
The last two years Bush was in office the Democrats controlled both houses. THEY voted for the huge debts; not the Republicans.
Village Idiot seems a fit. No further response necessary.
@youneedalabotomy
Are you stoned, stupid or senile? My guess is a perfect combination of all three afflictions. GWB left a deficit of 1.5 trillion? Ok, that means Ohomo has increased that by 10x not 2x as I stated earlier, according to your figure. As far as jobs are concerned, with a 60% labor participation rate, which is the lowest in 40+ years, Ohomo does not exactly have a stellar record on the employment front. Hey did you notice the 100+ million americans on some sort of government assistance program? Yes sir, another six years of Ohomo and we should be in great shape. BTW, are you on of those half bald, grey ponytail wearing dudes from the 60s? I get it, your a social science professor !
25or6to4,
You said: "GWB left a deficit of 1.5 trillion? Ok, that means Ohomo has increased that by 10x"
Are you sure about this statement? Or, would you like to reconsider it?
Really?
Your that smart? I am totally impressed. Here, hold my cigar!!!!
Are you sure that's a cigar your giving him?
Obama defenders are getting fewer and farther between. Wonder where ithis one came from? Maybe he popped through a worm hole, or was in a coma for the past couple of years.
Gotta say i agree with a lot of what you say regarding republicans but Obama has totally betrayed the people who voted for him. Bring on a third party in the USA.
You know I was thinking about this yesterday.
Why do our politicians seem to be so stupid and incompetent when listening to them threaten, deny and blame in comparison to listening to Putin/ Menvedev/Larov talk like statesmen and diplomats and watching them manuvere.
Its pretty obvious our people, Obama, Hillary, Kerry, Reid, Mccain, Biden bunch just plain suck.
How did we get so bad? I think its due to the fact that these guys just get there in a crony- who you know system.
Why is this?
Maybe it has something to do with these Russian representatives having to come up through a soviet system where you had to look behind your back, make alliances, know your friends and keep your enemies closer. The younger ones seem to have come up through a system of a collapsed state where they developed some really important skills in rebuilding.
I mean lets face it, Im not russian but our people don't come up to Putin/Larovs ankles. Sad.
I mean when I hear Hillary cackle to the world about killing Bin laden or taking about obliterating Iran, Or Biden telling me to buy a shot gun, of another folks speech from Obama its kind of embarrasing.
HEY COWSHIT - YOU LOVE THE COMMIES TOO? MOVE TO RUSSIA IF YOUR IN LOVE WITH THEIR ASSES. GO FUCK YOURSELF GOP SUCKJOB!!!
"GOP SUCKJOB!!!"
cowdiddly, I'd get pretty angry about that if I were you.....
gop suckjob..... interesting ad homenim
Hold his coat for him Knuks, while he deals with this mmm
Don't know, even the paid trolls are better than this lowlife scumbag.
Sigmund Freud once said that; “America is a mistake; a gigantic mistake, it is true, but nonetheless a mistake”, because, in his views:
You can’t have a Republic when its citizens are ignorant.
Their governments leave most participants unsatisfied.
The (ownership system) are based in an untenable illusion.
Immorality, no less than morality, has at all times found support in religion.
I'm gonna say that GOP SUCKJOB doesn't really rate as an ad homenem.
Maybe more like a Ralph Kramden ad-hommina-hommina-hommina
No it's Ok he only proves my point. Listen at him screaming in caps. lol plus look at his screen name lol
Now that you mention it I am going to get another passport. Its going to take years to unwind what I got going on here. I only hope I can do it in time. Oh and by the way about 2500 people renounced US citizenship last year. only about 4-8 per month are leaving Russia as per their website if that tells you anything. Not me though Im not into the Asia thing. Maybe the Caribbean or SA for me.
But your right Knucks- that gop was under the belt
P,S, I would have voted for Barry Goldwater too. Back when it mattered.
Me too. I think quite highly of Goldwater. He was a visionary, my man. If he were here today, he'd be looked upon a quite the middle of the road, slightly Libertarian bent, nice old gentlemanly grandfather figure, a statesman.
That gives me some perspective as to just how things have changed for the very much worse.
Were are any Goldwaters when we need them?
RP was about as close....
Oh well...
I'd hold your coat and second for you, too...
"Hubert Humphries talks so fast listening to him is like trying to read a Playboy magazine with your wife turning the pages" Barry Goldwater
Now that's inspired thinking...
Hey Weneedarealgovt Let me guess your occupation. Poet, playwight no i think i was right first time poet.
Seem to be making a lot of penis references. Are you in the closet?
Sometime people make statements that rise far above their normal mental capacities. At times it is simply an accident. At others, it reveals a transient stroke of insight. You have surely over-reached on this one.
when Gop suckjobs become scarce for you, TRY GOATS! youll love 'em! idiot
you are incredibly correct. The language differences say it all. This administration makes Bush look like a statesman. Nothing but self-centered, dick stroking comments by this admin. They ate either inept, clueless, or traitors
BLIND BOY, AGAIN WITH THE PENIS REFERENCES...DO YOU BUY GAYMAN MAGAZINES? FETISHES SHARED WITH OTHER MEN?
What, pray tell, is your obsession with homosexuality? Not secure enough?
The lady doth protesteth too much, methinks.
.
Sort of understand where you are coming from but I think that you are giving them (western world leadership) too much credit.
Their problem is that they all have less integrity than a gnat. Don't care even a little bit for their own people. The important thing is to toe the line however unsupportable that line is.
Our leadership are so full of B.S. that they physically cannot do the right thing.
.
"Putin has responded to [Western] sanctions as any really smart chess-player would - you get the supporters of your adversary to jump-ship."
Man, Martin must have been half in the bag to write that non-sequitur.
Or channeling Yogi Berra
This whole Chess-Checkers analogy is childish. Putin doesn't realize everyone is playing poker and they know the cards he has been dealt.
Do you really think cancelling an order for 16 737s is going to cause significant friction between Boeing and the US Government? Boeing? US Military? There is more friction generated by the National Labor Relations Board than by Putin. Is Putin comparable to a domestic political hack?
The Ukrainian crisis has been going on for long enough to know Putin is bluffing. No meaningful country has come to his side. The poker playing Germans have gotten the upper hand on the Russians. The Chinese have kept their options open... no commitments. If Putin plays his cards right (and everyone knows what they are) he may garner some international support. Any mistake and his chance at international stardom is gone.
Sure, Putin can go into the Ukraine, but once there can he get out? Once there, what is he going to do? As time marches on it becomes clear he has overplayed his hand and is being viewed as a wannabe, not a status symbol.
Stop commenting cannuckhead.
Stop reminding us what a fool we have amongst our ranks.
Your dogmatic hatred of all things Russian and/or muslim makes you completely
unable to think for yourself. Sad really.One level above the caps locks(above) posts.
If I wanted to hear what Hannity thinks, and says , I would waste my time watching him.
We don't need a braindead parrot repeating him here.
Thanks for your kind thoughts and wishes.
yawn another Coprparate media brainwashed sheeple
When we delve back into 'Mankinds' (sp) less then glowing contributions to history, we find one singular quality that brought about change/
Humanity becomes complacent,{in need of new horizons}, only to stubb it's un-learned toe, again and again and again and again!
In my trading years, I've grow more acustom to reading people than charts.
In life, the majority of people are chasing the trade...Brilliant people that have fantastic talents being puroposely mis-appropriated! Why is it talented individuals choose to become " beasts of burden"?
As a child, I expected so much MOAR by the year 2014...
When we delve back into 'Mankinds' (sp) less then glowing contributions to history,
So who else has been contributing to history other than mankind? You read any dolphin history books?
As a child, I expected so much MOAR by the year 2014...
You watched too much Star Trek.
The sanctions path was always going to be a slippery unpredictable slope to go down, I hope Obama knows what he is doing and his presidency won't just mark the destruction of 50 years of progress between the East and west.
Not unpredictable at all. If you don't lie and act with genuine goodwill there is no problem. If you act with deceit as Obama has done then what do you expect. He will go down in history as dissapointment personified. People will say "that was an Obama moment" when they go to an over-hyped movie and are dissapointed. when their team fails to perform another "Obama Moment" when they actually increase the antagonism between countries, religions, and races while proclaiming the opposite An" Obama Moment "
Putin is pragmatic
The Germans are pragmatic and will come around to Putin's way of thinking.
PRAGMATISM = A philosophical tradition that began in the United States around 1870.
Uncanny that Barry and his NeoCon warmongers throw out this principle that served the Old US so well for XXX years
Let's just say for shits & giggles that it would be 'beneficial' for continents to align their interests, despite the interventions of oligarch power struggles.
Loosing portions of the South American continent (as in BRICS), is going to leave the USSA sucking wind.
Amerikan interventionism, making friends everywhere we go..... /s
Putin could also refuse to take delivery and pay the balance when the planes are ready.
Peter Pan,
Putin is running out of oil. He could care less about these planes.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/anticipating-peak-world-oil-production/
"Putin is running out of oil"
Well, according to your link, EVERYBODY, is running out of oil, not just Putin.
This confirms my theory that everything since 911/Iraq War (and before) was motivated and driven by the US's obsession with controlling all the oil on the planet, or as much as they can put in their pockets.
And that means, of course, that a hot war can not be far away.
youre running out of sniffing glue lol
Russia hasn't had a successful govvie auction in weeks. Corporates are in even worse shape, and any objective view of the data shows it.
Contrary to the "power-worship the tyrant" fantasy session going on, cutting food imports says more about Chucky's disregard for the needs of his "peasants" than anything. This arrogant dope in the Kremlin has delusions of greatness that have screwed his people and his economy.
Case in point: that epic China-Russia energy deal was a coup only for China. They got LNG at current production cost for years (negligible margin), guaranteed to make Russia a future vassal-state.
China doesn't need LNG, they'll build pipelines to Russia.
LNG is for shipping overseas. Seas that aren't crossed with a pipeline.
So production cost is much lower than you think.
Don't know much about gaz do you?
Russia doesn't need to sell debt. They sell energy.
Why sell debt when there is something real to sell?
Russia is a vast land, they have lots of food.
They may have to do without Finnish butter for a while.
I doubt if many will notice.
I hope Russians do have enough food and hope the privations are trivial. I have no dislike of the Russian people. However, the anti-hero Putin, by invading the Crimea and destabilinig Ukraine (ZH denials of the obvious to follow of course), has set in motion a train wreck that won't easily be avoided.
It will be years before they complete any pipelines across Siberia, if ever. All Putin can do is compress it for transport and wish he hadn't screwed things up so bad in Europe. Europe wants energy security and they know Putin is a problem, not a solution.
Yes, Russia sells energy, but Putin bargained a deal that sells to China at breakeven at best and a loss if prices collapse. I admire the Chinese: they know how to cut a vicious deal with a smile.
You see, it's not a question of selling debt; Russia and more importantly, their banks and their oil and gas industry already are in serious hard currency debt. Russian companies already issued debt, they aready can;t refinance. It's like a revolver being called, and you have no cash. Default is only a matter of time. This will knock out a big chuck of collateral in the Russian financial system, causing local currency assets and the Ruble to collapse. The only meaningful financial assets left will be, ironically, the US treasuries and Bunds that are so despised.
I guess it never occurred to you that the reason the West's sanctions aren't biting is because China is bankrolling its ally.
Sure, I don't know that China is. But you don't know that China isn't.
But it doesn't make sense to anyone who has read some history that China, a nation with cash, or ready cash, of TWO THOUSAND BILLION USD, would throw its biggest ally under the bus and then become number one on the US's kill list.
jm. How do you know what are the economics of the Russian Chinese gas deal given that the terms are secret?
hahaha BUSTED! how COULD YOU KNOW lol
The deal terms are not secret.
The prices quoted in the deal are at today's prices. The contract, as I understand it is the standard contract indexing the price of gas against oil, as is the usual practice. It is NOT a fixed term price.
There is a cap and no floor on the delievry price. This is called "getting screwed".
Ruble to collapse - The Ruble is backed by energy. The yuan is backed by industry. The dollar is backed by Force.
We cant man all the garrisons anymore. US collapse is all China and Russia were waiting for. Now that the US has decided to get punchy they are helping it happen a LOT faster. The US went rolling into Ukaine looking for loot to feed the Bankers and Energy compaines. We need MOAR wealth for JP CHASE ShittyBank. What it got was a major bitchslap from the BRICS. Its no accident that Russia is able to lay some food sanctions on the EU that really hurt (cough BRICS cough.)
US Asst Secretary of state Nuland got caught talking about the overthrow of Ukraine before it happened. She got nailed so bad the state dept wont even try denying it and BBC actually reported it!
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
Putin didnt start this conflict the United States did. One month before elections the Ukraine govt. was overthrown by the US. Some real scumbags were picked as puppets too. Russia is not going to allow the US govt to take over its front yard and turn it into a forward operating base. It aint gonna happen and we will all burn in nuclear fire before it does. Dont think that some fancy space defese can protect us from a suicidal Russian attack. They can just detonate the warheads in the silos where they sit and kill us all at any time.
If China had overthrown Mexico and started putting missles on the US Mex border what do you think the response would be? Yes? Get it now?
the anti-hero Putin, by invading....WTF? Russia hasnt been doing that much invading lately he's only got
Egypt
Libya
Iraq
Afganistan
Oh wait that wasnt Putin who was it.....
You are right about Crimea though. Putin should never have invaded Russia's warm water port cause the Russians are gonna kick his ass with an 87% approval rating and all the Crimean locals will revolt like Donetsk.
Sure they will. And the longer this takes the closer we get to collapse. Amazing how thick most people are. Putin doesnt need to invade anything. After corruption takes down the United States he will be on top of the world with the Chinese at his side. Together they will come here and asset strip the US just like we do to others now. (Africa, ME, South America etc.) I wonder how many Americans are gonna give a shit about Ukraine when the Chinese buy the Grand Canyon and Empire State Building. Impossible? Ask Greece how their sales went.
PS The US is so frigging corrupt that a trillion dollars wont even buy a decent plane.
http://www.wired.com/2008/09/us-stealth-figh/
Invading crimea? You dumb western media indoctrinated prat.
Do you think the average russian gives a fuck about the sale of government bonds. They are used to looking after themselves as 'peasants' the world over are. They will respect someone who stands up to the arrogance and agression of the USA.and good luck to them.
From the chart it looks as if Europe supplies nearly 10 B euros of food to Russia. Mr Armstrong is pretty sure that Europe isn't going to find anyone to take up that 10 B economic slack, but he never seems to wonder where Russia is going to get 10B in food. I guess he's right Putin has Europe exactly where he wants them.
Putin seems to have a two-fold objective in cutting off food imports: The first is to wean Europe away from the US-instigated sanctions, and the second is to make Russia more self-sufficient in agricultural products. For the last week, the prices of food and fuel in the US commodities markets have been falling. Did they get advance notice of Putin's plans?
RMolineaux,
Putin's objectives are more than two. But good observation in your side
Remember when Obama told Putin (caught on an open mic) - he would be able to be more flexible after the election -
This is about the only thing Obama got right - if you consider being more flexible the same as being someone's bitch.
all-priced-in,
It wasn't Putin. It was Medvedev.
Your right - my bad -
I think while Medvedev was the pres I still considered Putin was really the guy in charge.
So it was like Medvedev never even existed.
Thinking about it now - WOW - Obama couldn't even stand up to Medvedev.
Nicely played...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9FOU8pv5Ww
The Russians are furious at what they see happening in Ukraine. Don't hold your breath for Putin to back-off or back-down, he has put down his marker and is now playing both Obama and Kerry for fools in a contest that cost Russia little. It is likely that if If Putin doesn't get Eastern Ukraine next week he will next month or next year at the latest. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/07/putin-holds-all-cards.html
Winter is coming sooner than people think.
they are not "furious" they are simply smiling and giving us all the rope we need to hang ourselves. Putin sees the long term BS politicians here see only the next election and most need to get GEDs
How ironic it would be that Putin fixes Americas problem for them,
a. get rid of Obomber
b. wake the people up!
Anyone remember that open letter to American citizens that Putin wrote about a year ago? Excellent stuff.
I forget all the details but he essentially said that he and Russians had no issues with Americans, just America's incredibly corrupt govt.
Best would be to hand the E.U. over to Putin. German allies! You gotta be kidding me. Putin can't afford E.U. Saves the U.S. a lotta trouble, dumps our faut allies and screws Putin. THREE BIRDS one stone.
P.S. Obama is already irrelevant. Its the next asshole we should be worried about. Neither "Party" even has a candidate thats not a moron,not in corporate pockets, not a thief and not a liar. They should all be thrown out of office(if not executed for treason). Operation Fresh Start.
It will be Hilary versus Jeb Bush. They've already been "selected" by the Warlocks who are bringing us the NWO. And it won't make a fucking bit of difference which one gets elected, since they are both on the same NWO team. To the extent any other candidate emerges with any electoral strength, they will be "neutralized" by the Order. If you doubt me, watch this. A real eye opener.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_JeDhmo8lI
Lets Close the NSA too. The electric bill is too high. Geeks running intelligence is a oxymoron or just plain moronic. Tracking emails and phone calls is a huge waste of money. And Homeland (fuck our butts welfare program) Suckurity should go too. The savings would be excellent.
Screw the Nazi's we're backing in Ukraine. Let em get a taste of Russian Justice. Putin needs those pipelines to give welfare to the E.U. That way we can properly align our interests and tactics being CHina's "friend" and controlling China. Now we're talking.
I wonder why Netherlands does not:
1. Interrogate Dnepropetrovsk Air Trafic Controller.
2. Request Air Trafic Control Records from Ukraine.
Because the air traffic controller is likely dead, and the records have disappeared.
Ha ha ha....the US have shot themselves in the foot! Serves em right! Oblama blows
Doesn't get any more "schizoid" than this!