This Is How Putin's Advisor Sees The Ukraine Crisis Playing Out

Tyler Durden's picture

Vladimir Putin's chief "integration" advisor, Sergei Glazyev, has been regularly featured on these pages in the past (see Putin Advisor Threatens With Dumping US Treasurys, Abandoning Dollar If US Proceeds With Sanctions and Putin Advisor Proposes "Anti-Dollar Alliance" To Halt US Aggression Abroad for two examples). So now that the Ukraine situation has once again escalated, this time with both sides openly engaged in trade war and many suggesting all-out war just over the horizon, how does Putin's advisor see the Ukraine conflict playing out?

For the answer we go to Bloomberg:

Putin has sought to lure Ukraine and its more than 40 million people into the alliance to build a trading bloc to rival the EU. Yanukovych pursued closer ties with the customs union and pulled out of an association agreement with the EU before his ouster in February. His successor, President Petro Poroshenko, signed the free-trade accord with the 28-nation bloc in June.

 

Russia can’t go it alone against the U.S. and must create an “anti-war coalition” to check the “aggressor,” Glazyev said.

 

The point of a series of regional wars organized by the Americans, especially today’s catastrophe in Ukraine, centers on the U.S. securing control over all of north Eurasia” to bolster “its position against China,” Glazyev said. “That’s how the U.S. military and oligarchs are trying to maintain leadership in the global competition with China.”

 

The effort will backfire, said Glazyev, who spoke before a round of retaliatory steps announced by Russia yesterday banning food and agricultural products for one year from the U.S., the EU, Norway, Canada and Australia. The U.S.-led “economic war” against Russia will ricochet, leaving the EU to pay the steepest costs in the conflict, he said.

 

The trading bloc stands to lose about 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion), an estimate he says includes the possible bankruptcy of several European banks and companies toppled after the cutoff in financial and economic ties. An energy crisis in Europe will bring a sharp spike in prices and a loss of competitiveness for European producers. Meanwhile, Turkish, Chinese and east Asian nations will fill the void left by the departure of their European rivals from the Russian market.

 

The fallout will cost 250 billion euros for Germany alone while pushing the three Baltic states to the brink of an “economic catastrophe,” he said. Lithuania and Latvia will lose the equivalent of half of their entire economic output, and the cost for Estonia will reach 50 percent more than its gross domestic product, Glazyev said.

Where does that leave Russia?

“Task no. 1 is to block those threats to economic security that are now coming from the U.S., neutralize them by reducing the dependence of our external economic activity on the mercy of American politicians, whose aggressiveness threatens the entire world,” he said.

Glazyev's conclusion:

To further insulate its economy, Russia should abandon the use of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, according to Glazyev. Russia, which international reserves are the world’s fifth-biggest, needs to diversify its holdings to include China’s yuan, India’s rupee and Brazil’s real.  “If a country aspires to reserve status for its currency, it should behave properly, and that isn’t the case today,” Glazyev said.

And this is how Putin sees the world. De-escalation? Good luck.

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emersonreturn's picture

putin's been around the world signing deals..i suppose argentina, brazil, chile could supply much of the produce needed, grain, as russians love bread may come from south america, possibly other produce will come through middlemen (israel is often happy to act as broker).   exxon seems to be committed to russia, the arctic most particularly but other russian ventures as well.  BP is still trying to hold on, and apparently shell and statoil.   i suppose some produce could flow into russia through other BRICs.  putin i don't believe would have placed sanctions on food stuffs he didn't feel assured could be accessed one way or another.  we really live in such fascinating times.  certainly, other WW's and empire collapses were stunning but this encompasses everything: fukushima, population, plague, resources, finances, political...etc.

Gorod-Geroy Xerson's picture

Actually....The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects Russia to rank as the world’s fifth-largest corn exporter this season ending Sept. 30, with sales of 3.5 million metric tons, the agency saidMay 9. Russia delivers corn to Spain, Italy, Germany and the Netherlands, Rylko said.

Russia's grain exports are expected to reach 25 million tonnes in 2014/15 marketing year, which started on July 1, Fyodorov told reported in Moscow on Thursday.

 

Exports in 2013/14 were 25.4 million tonnes with most grain shipped to the Middle East, Africa and Asian countries.

 

"These countries are friendly to us... That's why everything is quite predictable for us on the grain market and grain exports," Fyodorov said.

 

The largest buyers of Russian wheat in 2013/14 (July/June) were Egypt, Turkey, Yemen and Iran. Turkey and South Korea were the most important markets for maize (corn) while Saudi Arabia took more than half its barley exports.

emersonreturn's picture

GGX

 

thank you, highly interesting.

Idaho potato head's picture

Plus, and it's a big plus, it's all non GMO.

NuYawkFrankie's picture

The following has been scrambled to avoid raising any NSA/FEMA/FBI/TSA/BATF/DHS/AIPAC red-flags:

The Regime is Obama Operation a Rogue.

JohninMK's picture

Sorry, just their initials will trigger the flag.

smacker's picture

China is certainly the ultimate target. Has been since it came out of hibernation. Russia has to be taken out first to give a clear run without distractions.

John McCloy's picture

They could not even take over a non industrial minimal form of organized military and government structure in HALF OF Vietnam, could not even install a pro-western puppet regime in any Middle Eastern nation for any concrete or legitimate period of time...
We have zero chance at defeating either Russia or China let alone both when we are the most babifed civilization focused on tweets facebook and reality shows laser pointed on political correctness and not manufacturing and end results.
It's over for us until we have a revolution. That will come when the fascists attempt to purge the herd who do not bow... Not far away.. Evil and ruling over the few is inherent in mankind and always had been .. Now for the first time we will see it with a frightening technological overlay..
And that is why the Constitution was and is so important ..it was the creation of a document intended to ever prevent that from occurring again..
It wont..but America 2.0 is gonna rock..

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

The plan is to surround and control China's supply lines.

Control them, control China.

emersonreturn's picture

it just occurred to me, if rosneft gazprom need funds to operate...china could be requested to sell UST and give russia a loan.  if china is actually the target such a loan/sale may have a double effect.

AdvancingTime's picture

Under the "Last Nation Standing" concept Europe might be a very weak link. While many nations fall into the weak group contagion might bring us all down. We  are all interconnected for better or worse. A bad apple can spoil the whole basket. Welcome to the world our leaders have designed or allowed to form. Whether by design or merely as a byproduct of globalization we have weaved a web of financial transactions that circle the globe.

Over the last several years as money was printed by the central Banks it was not contained in the countries where in was printed. This money flowed across borders influencing and distorting markets and prices across the world. Some people have been calling for a "world currency" for years. the saying "one should never let a good crisis go to waste" means that a meltdown with high levels of fear would present a perfect opportunity and catalyst to advance this agenda down the field. Remember many people with agendas have a lot to gain when a major shift in the currency markets takes place. More on this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/02/contagion-may-lead-to-new-world-c...


Joe Tierney's picture

Russia's message, as told by Glazyev in this particular example, is incredibly toxic for America's position on the global stage!

 

Why? Because the message is so true, and resonates so powerfully amongst the very powers that Russia is assembling around itself in an anti-American strategic axis. This bodes very ill for America - and not in 25 years - but now and next year as these powers form an axis to counterbalance and constrain the U.S.

 

This is high geopolitical drama unfolding before our eyes - and it's going to be a win for Russia et al very soon indeed.

DOGGONE's picture

Obama hides this ... Will Putin unhide it?
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1246837

I see leverage.

SheepDog-One's picture

Good for stawks tho! YAY!

potato's picture

Putin has very tough competition in signing deals with other countries.

The Statesman of the Century, the honorable centurion of freedom John Kerry, whose speeches rival the Syrens, and who has more diplomatic skill in his pinky finger than the entire planet Earth...

Very tough competition indeed. He should be scared.

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Actually, it 's you, potato, who should be scared.

You must know how good potatoes taste when they're dripping with Heinz Ketchup.

 

Flybyknight's picture

Heinz Ketchup is only good for making industrial shit food edible. Potatoes need butter

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

If Glazev is correct and

"today’s catastrophe in Ukraine, centers on the U.S. securing control over all of north Eurasia” to bolster “its position against China,” 

then, even though you're not reading about it in the NY Times or seeing it discussed on FOX tv, we have another comparison to the 100 Year Birthday War, the one to end all wars. 

We have another "Blank Check".

China doesn't want any other nation, least of all America, "securing control" and "bolstering its position" against China.

 And the best way to do that is to destabilize the economies of America's allies.

Therefore, China probably has given Russia an unlimited draw on her $2 trillion fund of American dollars (which half the gang here at ZH would like to see denied its status as reserve currency). Because Russia is a major trading partner of America's European allies.

And if Russia and Europe halt trading with each other, China's eventually worthless funds will keep Russia afloat.  The US Congress is far too deep in denial about realpolitik to do the same.

China knows that if the USD looses it reserve currency status, ITS HORDE OF THEM WILL LOSE ITS VALUE.  MAYBE HALF ITS VALUE.

SO CHINA MIGHT AS WELL SPEND IT NOW IN AUGUST 2014 ON A FOOL PROOF PLAN TO CAUSE ECONOMIC PAIN TO THOSE NATIONS FOOLISH ENOUGH TO BE TIED TO THE APRON STRINGS OF AMERICA. 

smacker's picture

Interesting comments. This bit is certainly and understandably true:

"China doesn't want any other nation, least of all America, "securing control" and "bolstering its position" against China."


And why would it or should it be otherwise?

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

"And why would it or should it be otherwise?

 Because the Pentagon so decreed.

Glazyev said it in his post. I condensed it.

 "The point of a series of regional wars organized by the Americans, especially today’s catastrophe in Ukraine, centers on the U.S. securing control over all of north Eurasia” to bolster “its position against China,” Glazyev said. “That’s how the U.S. military and oligarchs are trying to maintain leadership in the global competition with China.”

 

As China becomes stronger through and the US becomes more dependant of the advice of the Kerrys and the Nulands, China will ignore Washington's bombast or pay it back by claiming all of the South China Sea

BTW I never thought that China and Russia were ever at odds with each other. That border dispute was a pretense to prevent the rabid anti-Communist US military from a preemptive strike against either. 

If you read the history of that dispute, you will see that that Russian build-up on the Amur mirrored the US build-up in South Vietnam.  And when America finally threw in the towel, the Russian tanks were back on their rail cars headed west.

The American timetable in Vietnam.

June 8, 1969 - President Nixon meets South Vietnam's President Nguyen Van Thieu at Midway Island and informs him U.S. troop levels are going to be sharply reduced. During a press briefing with Thieu, Nixon announces "Vietnamization" of the war and a U.S. troop withdrawal of 25,000 men.


July 8, 1969 - The very first U.S. troop withdrawal occurs as 800 men from the 9th Infantry Division are sent home. The phased troop withdrawal will occur in 14 stages from July 1969 through November 1972.

The Russian/Chinese timetable for the removal of Russian troops along the Ussuri.

On March 29, 1969, the Soviet government delivered the declaration to the Chinese embassy in Moscow regarding Sino-Soviet relations, which began with a consideration of recent events on the Ussuri.... Moscow at the end of the declaration invited the government of the Chinese People's Republic to abstain from all action along the frontier that "would risk bringing about complications", and called upon Peking to resolve any differences "in calm and by means of negotiations".....Peking in its April report to the congress acknowledged receipt of the Soviet offer and said that "our government is considering its reply to this"....On May 12, Peking announced that it had sent a message to the Soviet Union accepting in principle the Soviet proposal for resumption of the work of the mixed commission for the regulation of traffic on the border rivers and proposing that the date be fixed for mid-June. Moscow agreed, naming June 18 as the exact date.

Why the false altercation at the the Amur and Ussuri?

It was barely a dozen years since the US fought the North Koreans to a draw and they were back in south-east Asia making trouble for Vietnam.

No one could say how the war in Vietnam would end; but if it ended badly for the North, there was every reason to believe the US would continue its campaign onto and up the Korean peninsula.

It is certainly true that Russia and China had border disputes there before as early as the 17th century.  But it is also true that the contested bend in the Amur River is less than 500 miles away from the Sino- North Korean border.

21 soviet divisions and arms pretending to be aimed at the Chinese, but waiting for William Westmoreland to liberate Pyongyang 

The Tet offensive made this charade needless.

Sorry for the length of this.

Urban Redneck's picture

Funny you should mention that...

"The Russian Central Bank is not giving precise details on the size of the currency swaps, nor when it will be launched. It says this will depend on demand.

According to the bank, the agreement will serve as an additional instrument for ensuring international financial stability. Also, it will offer the possibility to obtain liquidity in critical situations."

hedgiex's picture

If you want to be in charge of the world's reserve currency, you have to be the impartial banker to global trade and investment flows.

If you become banksters like what they do to their own nations, Is it a surprise that those who hold the reserve currency will engineer for allternatives ? They can be usurped by their own nationals if they lose the hard earned reserves too.

This is economic self defense.

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

"If you want to be in charge of the world's reserve currency..." you really ought not to be printing it like there's no tomorrow and giving it to all your banks.

No?

 

The only way an economy loses hard earned reserves is if the 'Emperor's old reserve currency' joins the Weimar mark and the Hungarian Pengo in The Currency Hall of Shame.

omniversling's picture

Haven't crunched the numbers, but would assume China has an agreement to hold onto a large amount of US debt (until the time is ripe) in return for gold being kept in the $1300 range whilst they buy buy buy BTFD, directly, but more covertly through 3rd parties. When the reset happens, their enormous accumulation of physical will be more than enough to 'cover' the fiat paper losses. Finger on pulse here: and despite the repetetive mantras - even the oldtimers and pros are having trouble coming to terms with how long the manipulation has been effective -  there are nuggets to be found: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/KWN_DailyWeb.html

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

This reminds me of the Indian fable of the six blind men and the elephant. One felt the ear, one felt the tail, one felt the leg etc. and they all described an elephant differently.

Now we're all looking at the same problem. One sees it as Wall Street, one sees it as Islam terrorism, one sees it maintaining the dollar as the reserve currency, another sees it as the gold market.

I see it as global oil reserves. And the Pentagon's ambition about global oil reserves.

As none of us have a crystal ball and as there's no place to run or hide,  the only thing we can really say is

BARTENDER!

Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Wow, leaders who are tough and are able to think...When was the last time the US saw the likes of such men?...

ajax's picture

 

 

and so is the equity on his dad's house...

smacker's picture

I sort of agree with Sergei Glazyev's comments but it looks like he underestimates the lengths and tactics that the neo-con criminals running USG (and its obedient allies like Briatin) will go to to prevent the collapse of the USD empire and global power & control. Plans are almost certainly in place for a hot war against Russia to neutralise it before taking on China. What we are seeing so far is simply the drumbeats and march to war. More to come until at some point the USG is ready to press the GO button. Possibly a false flag or some other manufactured incident blown out of all proportion will be used as a justifiable trigger. Several months or several years? Who knows. The march has begun.

Urban Redneck's picture

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWT5HM_NMlI

Sergei Glazyev on Ukraine 2 months ago... hot war with Russia.

smacker's picture

UR: Thanks for that, it's a very interesting video. I now feel more confident that he and Putin have a better understanding than this article suggests of the sinister gameplan being played out by Washington, several Western allies and its puppets in Kiev.

Ventnor's picture

Smacker: "I now feel more confident that he and Putin have a better understanding than this article suggests of the sinister gameplan being played out by Washington..."

OK, but what is Putin doing about it?  The war in Eastern Ukraine is winnable, but I don't see Russia pushing to victory.   I don't see heavy weaponry (especially anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons) being sent to pro-Russian  forces in the numbers required.  And I don't see him openinig the border to allow Russians, Russian Cossaks and Chechens in to join the fray.  If the Ukrainian army has a breakthrough and decimates Strelkov and his people, it's curtains.  Good that Putin and Galzyev "get it," but what are they doing?.  Embargos on French cheese are nice, but will not win the war.  

Urban Redneck's picture

Congress of Vienna
Concert of Europe
Holy Alliance
Crimean War
League of Three Emperors
Russo-Turkish War
Bolshevik Revolution
Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact

This has been going on a long time, and there have been a whole bunch of Rinse, Repeat cycles.

Ukraine is a side show, not a priority. The situation just has to be kept in check. The big boys are playing for much larger stakes.

smacker's picture

Well of course, if you were to ask Western political elites, they'd say that Putin is already supplying East Ukie with weapons and misc hardware. And he probably is in small numbers.

In my view, Putin is being slow in his response to Kiev's onslaught. This is almost certainly due to (a) him wanting to avoid a mass propaganda campaign that would be launched by Western govs and MSM accusing him of "illegally annexing" East Ukie, (b) the people of East Ukie (unlike Crimea) do not actually want to join Russia but simply want to become independent of Ukraine. According to new reports they have voted along these lines. And (c) such action might provoke NATO getting involved even though Ukie is not a member.

That said, Putin has been building up his forces on the East Ukie-Russian border, so he may be preparing to do "something". His strategy could only be classed as a failure if Ukraine and/or NATO actually take over East Ukie. His options then fall to zero.

flapdoodle's picture

My likely uniformed take on all this is that Putin is playing the "Stalingrad" game in Donetsk. Not a bad model if you think about it, but it sure will wreak havoc on Donetsk real estate and inhabitants.

It interesting thing is that Lugansk is in much better shape and is more or less not in very much danger right now, and has much more secure rear access to the Russian border (I wonder if there is any connection?).

If the Stalingrad game is truly on, Poroshenko is delusional if he thinks "Donetsk will fall any minute now". If the Russians have done their homework Donetsk will remain a festering sore in the Ukraine side and bleed them dry, at little cost to Russia itself if Putin can avoid the NATO trap. Operations in Ukraine will suck up a *lot* of Yellin's printing (perhaps the point of all of this) but in the process, the EU economy will flatline starting with the newest Eastern States on the Baltic.

I hope the Europeans have lots of warm clothes...

JohninMK's picture

I think you are spot on.

If the US's intention was to destabilise countries on Russia's borders to put Russia on the back foot, it looks as if it is going to backfire.

Its the US's and its allies that are going to suffer a running military sore plus have to support the bankrupt Kiev government.

omniversling's picture

Yes, I think that's a good take on Putin 'keeping his powder dry'. Tried to find that link that I read a couple of months ago that tied the IMF loans to Porko winning back Donbask region, but could only come up with the region as industrial driver of Ukraine, therefore ability to pay back loans - (hahahahaha). Am sure Putin's suffering hard to be sacrificing Rus blood in East Ukraine, and is also being called a chickenshit for not intervening militarily. This embedded clip is interesting, not sure which side of the propaganda fence it was made on, but the explanation is easily digestible:

http://therussophile.com/the-reasons-why-russia-will-not-invade-ukraine....

 

Flybyknight's picture

Almost a certainty given their record

Kreditanstalt's picture

Hope and change!  That's just what we need...one of the most uplifting articles on ZH in some time!

Magnum's picture

When will Russia start informing Americans about the 9/11 lies?

dreadnaught's picture

The Dumbocrats ought to use Repukelican complicity with 911 if they ever want to win the election....and then we get another 911: Hillary Clinton as Prez -an even worse disaster propagated again, by Israel

localspaced's picture

You have to read this closely. This is the deescalation, Putin style. Brash language but carefully worded. The offer to defuse this has been on the table from the start. Stop expanding NATO right up to the Russian border. A neutral Ukraine and Europe needs to step out of the shadow of the US. 

I strongly suspect European leaders will read it like this and will deal with Russia on their own terms, in private. If Putin plays it smart he'll ignore the EU and just talk to the countries, making sure the EU common foreign policy never gets off the ground.

The US definitely only gets a lot of vitriol and hate from Russia. I think that relationship is definitely soured. Try again when putin retires, maybe. Now that is one you lay on Obama's doorstep. Under Bush relationships were better than ever. Lavrov and Condi sneaking out of negations to catch the ballet together. So cute. Bush and Putin had chemistry so they got shit done. I think there was a period where Russia was really trying to cooperate with the US and the west, but has ended feeling betrayed by it...so now we're back to square one.

Bush was pretty bad, but Obama has turned out to be an absolute disaster. 

This situation with Ukraine is a disaster too, because the Russians have been on point and played their game dirty, but smart and effective. Meanwhile the west can't even bring itself to give their people any insight into what's going on..so were just left with our black markers here, drawing Hitler moustaches on Putin pics. 

Fuck it, I'm still positive. I'm not a statist, it's all bullshit. I'm betting on the economic collapse of China followed by a civil war. That would fuck up everybody's plans. Black swan, bitxhez. 

basho's picture

the 'de-escalation' word was not used by the russians. bloomberg used the word.

bloomberg creates the fiction and you all argue about it all day. lol

cows chewing their cud

and the rest of the world moves on laughing at the dumb f*ck americans.

wake up.

QQQBall's picture

So Obomber is going to the mat over this... the unitended consequence is that countries conclude "We will never be in this situation again." The empire is in decline.

basho's picture

"So Obomber is going to the mat over this"

yeah on his knees.

yrbmegr's picture

Tax cuts are the answer.

Duffy Duck's picture

looked like the FDD, led by Clifford May

and the NED - led by Carl Gershman

and the rest of the "pro-democracy" outfits led by members of the same club...

have their work cut out for them in helping "Yats" and Nudelman, I mean Nuland shephard the poor Christian Ukrainians into a brighter tomorrow, no?  Maybe fellow club member Larry Diamond, or one of the "Ukrainian" oligarchs can help produce another "I am a Ukrainian" youtube video?

 

For the children, of course.

of course... The European and American public are being systematically lied to about the Ukraine crisis.

 

 

dreadnaught's picture

Meanwhile OUR tax dollars are being stolen from us by the Billions to fund ISRAEL and the NAZI government in the UKRAINE

daedon's picture

When you write "brighter tomorrow", how much brighter do you mean, like how many kilotons brighter ?