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Putin Defies Western Warning, Will Send "Aid Convoy" To East Ukraine
This may get messy.
Following days of loud warnings by the West that Putin should not take any moves to send "humanitarian" aid into East Ukraine, due to western fears that this would be merely a pretext for invasion, Putin said on Monday that Russia will go ahead and send an aid convoy to eastern Ukraine anyway.
As was reported earlier, Ukraine announced that Russia has amassed 45,000 troops on its border, following by the now-daily NATO threat that there was a "high probability" that Moscow could intervene militarily in the country's east, so to many this is just the catalyst that the Kremlin could use to enter the civil war-ridden territory to support ethnic Russians, but ultimately to conduct yet another "Crimea." As a reminder, despite the constant grumblings by the West and certainly Kiev, there is zero probability that the annexed territory will be relinquished by Putin. As a further reminder, it was the emergence of local mysterious "peacekeepers" that made the annexation of Crimea a quick and painless transition, one in which not a shot was fired. The concern is that that was merely the appetizer with the shale-rich Donbass region serving as the main course.
According to Reuters, European Commission President Barroso "delivered a blunt message in a telephone call with Putin on Monday. "President Barroso warned against any unilateral military actions in Ukraine, under any pretext, including humanitarian," the Commission said in a statement."
The Kremlin, in its own account of the conversation, made clear that Moscow would indeed send help to largely Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine. We also doubt very much that Putin cared much if at all about any warnings uttered by the unelected Eurocrat.
"It was noted that the Russian side, in collaboration with representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross, is sending an aid convoy to Ukraine," the Kremlin statement said, without saying when the convoy was going.
And now that Putin's mind is made up, Ukraine has no choice but to accept, albeit with its so-called conditions:
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said he supported an aid mission but made clear it had to be an international effort under the aegis of the Red Cross, involving the European Union as well as Russia. Poroshenko said U.S. President Barack Obama had also backed the international plan when they spoke on the telephone on Monday.
The International Committee of the Red Cross made no immediate comment, although last weekend it issued a statement acknowledging receipt of an offer from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about organizing aid convoys.
Surely Russia will closely "heed" Ukraine's conditions.
To be sure, NATO is displeased. Quote its Secretary General Rasmussen: "We see the Russians developing the narrative and the pretext for such an operation under the guise of a humanitarian operation, and we see a military build-up that could be used to conduct such illegal military operations in Ukraine," he said.
And yet, Russia appears set to enter east Ukraine despite NATO objections.
It goes without saying that all it would take for a full blown escalation, one that not even the algo-driven market could ignore, would be a Russian casualty operating in Ukraine under a "humanitarian" umbrella, wether legitimate or due to a "false flag" attack, before the facade of artificial stability on Ukraine's east border crumbles and what was until now a civil war morps into a full-blown international conflict.
Update 1: the readout of the Obama-Poroshenko phone call:
The President spoke this morning with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko about the ongoing crisis in eastern Ukraine. President expressed his strong support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The two leaders agreed that any Russian intervention in Ukraine without the formal, express consent and authorization of the Ukraine government would be unacceptable and a violation of international law. President Poroshenko also noted the continued shelling of Ukraine’s territory from Russia. President Poroshenko updated the President on his engagement with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) on the effort to deliver multilateral humanitarian aid to the distressed populations in eastern Ukraine. The President noted the urgency of such humanitarian efforts and encouraged President Poroshenko to continue to exercise restraint and caution in military operations in order to avoid civilian casualties. In light of the ongoing violence and instability, the President and President Poroshenko agreed that all parties should prioritize diplomatic efforts toward finding a political resolution to the crisis.
Update 2: From RIA:
Russian convoy with humanitarian aid will depart to Eastern Ukraine shortly without any military escort - Kremlin spokesman
— RIA Novosti (@ria_novosti) August 11, 2014
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Interactive map of what is happening in Ukraine with time line events:
http://liveuamap.com
What time do you appear on TV tonight? CNN (communist news network) or MSLSD channel.
Do you find lower advertising ratings because the British press has bigger balls in explaining the corruption of a illegal nigger in the White House?
minus seven? What a joke. Not even close to mine.
Good time for Putin to do it - Obama is on a 2 week vacation.
stocks might colapse again tomorrow
If they arent' taking any weapons with them, you can bet there will be some air support in the near vicinity capable of coming in at 1000 mph+ with cannons and missiles blazing.
Let us not kid ourselves that in ny real confrontation that Russia will triumph. It won't. It will come off second best. The problem for the west though and in particular Europe is that it will have suffered so much dmage that any victory will be in name only.
The USA will alsp pay a heavy price as I suspect that Russia would have planted sleeper agents there who would do damage to power grids, water supplies and whatever else.
The aid convoys under the Red Cross will allow journalists to document the true stupidity and barbarity of the Ukranian response.
Ukraine is broke so how does destroying the east help it even in the event that it regains supremacy? Someone has a different agenda.
seventeen billion dollars from imf is how
money for blood
Note that $17 billion in LOANS is being provided by the IMF in small payments, under the conditions that the Kiev government regain total control of areas now in rebellion, along with increases to the Ukrainian people in the price of natural gas, gasoline, electricity, water and other fees. The price of other goods such as food have increased, pehaps only by 20%, since Ukraine produces HUGE quantities of food. (It was once referred to as the "Bread basket of Europe".)
I am an American and have lived permanently in Ukraine since 2009. The prices of all of the above items (except gasolineanf food) have nearly DOUBLED since the February 2014 coup in Kiev. Further, in 2006 the exchange rate was 5 UAH per 1 U.S. dollar (Hyrvnia, pronounced "Greev-na"). By 2009 it was about 7 UAH per 1 USD; and by late 2014 was still around 7.8 UAH per 1 USD. Since the Kiev coup the exchange rate has varied between 10 to 12 UAH per USD. As of today it was 12.8 UAH per 1 USD, up from 12.6 only yesterday.
It does not adversely affect me, since my paper currency (on-hand and on deposit in Ukrainian banks) is totally in U.S. dollars, which these banks must, by law, return to me in my withdrawals as U.S. dollars. (If one wishes to have deposits in a bank of Ukrainian UAH, one is required to establish a totally separate account with that bank - two currencies can NOT be held in one account.) Indeed, even with increased prices and the devaluation of the UAH, I still come out ahead. HOWEVER, for the typical Ukrainian family, they are getting "screwed" by the Kiev government and the IMF.
The IMF is the high tech modern version of the old la-cosanostra loan shark. You take a loan from them and they make sure there is no way to pay them back without giving up some form of national treasure. One step in the right direction would be to eliminate the IMF (and the BIS as well).
Let me get this right.
US goes into Iraq bombing first, as a humanitarian mission for a small tribe stuck on a mountain. Same said people being buried alive by IS. Seemingly noble, were it not that the true reason is for oil.
Russia go in to help their people in Eastern Ukraine in a humanitarian capacity with the Red Cross and immediately they are gunning for war!!!
Be very wary of the Langley installed Ukraine government. They ARE gunning for war.
Did Ukraine tell Russia to stay out? Yes, they did.
See, comrade, you just needed to have someone pull your head out of your Kremlin paid ass to see the difference. You are welcome!
So if Scotland breaks away from the UK Glasgow should be hit by heavy artillery and ballistic missiles and Gaelic banned as an aside.
Malaysian press update on MH-17:
from news straits times of malaysia:
https://kosmologelei.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/nst06082014-page6.jpg
The Western powers seem determined to push Russia into a fight.
I would guess it would be to provide cover for the "great keynesian experiment" of liquidity pumping which isn't working.
Russia would be the "new" winter storm of 2014 excuse which nearly every economist used for missed predictions during the 1st quarter of the year.
Climate Disruption and a unique snow flake called Global warming to induce more taxation theft.
How about we send these politicians to the North & South Pole for 30 days.
Obama. Michelle, she can eat snow cakes to lose that fat ass. Others :
-Congress
-Senate
-House
Don't hold your breath for Putin to back-off or back-down, he has put down his marker and is now playing both Obama and Kerry for fools in a contest that cost Russia little. Putin wants a path or land link to Crimea and if he doesn't get Eastern Ukraine next week he will next month or next year at the latest. Putin holds all the cards and time is on his side. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/07/putin-holds-all-cards.html
FYI:
Are you aware that a bridge (for both cars and trains), running in an east-west direction, is being built across the 5-Km (3.1 mile) wide Kerch Strait between Russia proper and Crimea, linking two existing highways and railroad lines. It has been in the planning stages by Ukraine and Russia for several years. (Currently a ferry runs across this strait between these highways.)
I am sure a more northern route via southeastern Ukraine into Crimea would be welcomed by Russia, but it is hardly vital.
Siberia is another option on the table. Can't send them in the summer.
/ sarc
So the US can attack Iraq in the Middle East and this isn't a violation of international law.
Israel can blow the Palestinians to smithereans, and then blow them up again.
But if Russia intervenes in a country it borders and has historical ties to, it's "illegal" and a "violation of international law."
The hypocrisy is so extreme there aren't even words to describe it.
Who controls Obama? Who controls public opinion throughout the EU and USA? The same little bunch who decide which wars are good and which are bad. And which side the sheep must support when someone starts bombing.
I'm sure the tens of millions of ANGRY, Ukrainian people will understand that their country SHOULD be invaded because the USA and Israel do terrible, illegal things in lands far far away.
Royal, have you tried to explain this to them?
When you sold that pitch to your mama, did she smile and nod patiently or did she start backing away?
Novictim:
I don't think the 1,000,000 million inhabitants of Donetsk, who have been without sewage, running water, gas, electricity and functioning stores for weeks will regard the Russian aid mission as an invasion. In any case, Donetsk is a Russian city.
Some info on the Russian aid convoy, which is not the first. Three trucks delivered what seems to be medical aid into Luhansk from Chechnya, this is their second load.
To the Lugansk People's Republic delivered another batch of humanitarian aid. "REF of the Hero of Russia Akhmad-Hadji Kadyrov" [NGO of Chechen republic] has sent all that is needed for operating, first aid, treatment of people with severe shrapnel and gunshot wounds. And also transferred essentials for suffered population in a war zone. Residents of LPR and DPR need urgent help and support, without waiting until America and Europe agree about some corridors."
https://www.facebook.com/RKadyrov95/photos/a.699805706721731.1073741831....
This next link is the main convoy, the 8th post down on this thread is a short video of some of the trucks. It is believed that about 300 trucks are involved delivering about 7500 tons. Another poster there, following a discussion on whether these were military trucks, said that these particular ones were local council trucks from their license plates. There is no idication where it is going but probably Luhansk given the devestation that is about to be unleashed on Donetsk. Of note at the end of the video a S300 SAM low level aquisition radar truck is filmed. As the area would have permanent air defences this implies that the Russians are beefing up support for the convoy. Any SU25 or MI24 Hind is not going to get near it.
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?236054-Ukraine-discu...
The S300 Clam Shell is a low altitude FMCW (frequency modulated continuous wave) search and acquisition radar designed to detect and track approaching and receding low radar cross section (RCS) targets, particularly cruise missiles. The system will detect targets at extremely low altitudes in ground clutter under intense ECM conditions. This system is described as fully automatic and provides target track information for the fire control system of the static SA-10A or mobile SA-10B Grumble area defence SAM. Approaching and receding target velocity, range and bearing are provided, with selectable 1 or 6 degree vertical beamwidths, and selectable beam polarisation.
"...another batch of humanitarian, shoulder-fired first aid bandages..."
I don't know. Seems a little suspicious.
It is going to Luhansk, sensible as the Militia control the road from Russia.
How is it that only the Americans can break international laws without any consiquence?
When you keep telling yourself your allowed to over and over pretty soon you start believing it.
THere are about to get a huge slap in the face from Russia, the question is will it wake them up or will they start another war?
As an American who has lived in UKraine since 2009 and has followed the recent political events here very closely, I spotted several major errors in this article.
If the author was referring to CRIMEA in his statement "there is zero probability that the annexed territory will be relinquished by Putin", then he is correct However, if he was referring to any other areas of eastern and southern Ukraine that might be annexed by Russia, he is wrong. Putin recognizes that eastern Ukraine, even with its coal mines, is of NO value to Russia. In addition, the factories in eastern Ukraine contain obsolete equipment compared to Russian and most Western factories. Indeed, these regions of Ukraine would be an enormous economic drain on Russia.
The statement that "the concern is that that [Crimea] was merely the appetizer with the shale-rich Donbass region serving as the main course." is nonsense. Except for Sevastopol as the primary deep-water port for Russia's Black Sea Fleet, Crimea offers NOTHING of value, economic or otherwise, to Russia. Crimea's economy is miniscule, although it does produce some rather amazing wines! And while eastern Ukraine contains huge coal mines and (as this author alleges) rich shale deposits, Russia ALREADY has massive natural gas, oil and coal reserves second to no other country in the world. To presume that Russia would seize the Donbass region for the comparatively miniscule amounts of natural gas within this shale (presumably to be extracted by "fracking") is ludicrous. Even within the U.S. "fracking" has proved to a be a very expensive process, usually requiring more energy input than output at a ratio of approximately 5 to 3. Further, "fracking" pollutes the ground water (underground aquifers) and often renders the land useless for farming or anything else.
Finally, the author's statement that "the emergence of local mysterious 'peacekeepers' that made the annexation of Crimea a quick and painless transition, one in which not a shot was fired" is totally false. In Ukraine - including Crimea - it is VERY COMMON for people to possess firearms. In fact, hunting and shooting are HUGE sports, both in Ukraine and Russia. For more than 30 years I engaged in small-bore (.22 cal.) and large-bore target pistol competitions within the U.S; and I can assure you that in high-profile competitions, Russian-made .22 cal. ammunition was considered the best by far. Even today in Olympic competitions (rifle and pistol), Russian .22 cal. ammunition remains the preferred choice.These Ukrainians were ALREADY armed with their own weapons and feared an invasion by troops of the post-coup Kiev government. Second, the approximately 18,000 Russian military personnel (soldiers and sailors) based in numerous parts of Crimea were there by treaty with Ukraine, which in fact allowed a maximum of 25,000 Russian military personnel. Third, a large number of Ukrainian military personnel based in Crimea actually "resigned" (usually simply by walking away) from the Kiev government's military, with many joining the Russian miltary retaining their previous rank (at more than double their previous salaries).
My wife was actually in Simferopol, Crimea visiting her parents before and during the "independence" and "request for annexation" referenda; and she reported that the people were overjoyed and literally partying in the streets.
Crimean wines are only "amazing" in that a few people actually prefer them to fermented mare's milk.
Lighter fluid is cheaper.
Don't you think Putin would militarily defend east Ukraine if NATO was threatening to take on the whole country?
So, because Russia already has massive natural resources, the Great Leader would not contemplate invading another sovereign country? Of course, anyone who has his own T-shirt can only be a "very cool regular guy" (http://news.sky.com/story/1316842/mickey-rourke-lines-up-for-putin-shirt...).
Please wake up. Nazi Germany's schoolgirls (among others) were overjoyed and celebrating Hitler's 50th Birthday. Five months later, the popular Casanova invaded Poland to extend Germany's shorelines (which it already had), to defend a German minority residing in Poland, and to create German Lebensraum (living space, as described in Mein Kampf), subsequently starting WWII. See the parallels? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2085509/Hitler-schoolgirls-Colou...
You may be right about Ukraine, but you would be more convincing without the unargumented statements about fracking.
I love how Russia has been "shelling the ukraine" for months now.
Trust me Ukies, if russia wanted to shell you they wouldnt need months to get everything in range hit.
Now that the Ruskies have taken their backbone measure of the E.U. and found jellyfish we should be able to figure the rest out. Has anyone seen the odds that the BIS is giving on this?
Don't hold your breath for Putin to back-off or back-down, he has put down his marker and is now playing both Obama and Kerry for fools in a contest that cost Russia little. Putin wants a path or land link to Crimea and if he doesn't get Eastern Ukraine next week he will next month or next year at the latest. Putin holds all the cards and time is on his side. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/07/putin-holds-all-cards.html