This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Will it Rain in California this Winter?

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

 

High on my list of: THINGS THAT COULD GO VERY WRONG, is the drought in the west coast. The three year run of below average rain has already had a big toll. Agricultural production is way off, fires are burning in all of the affected states, and there has been some curbs on water consumption by individuals. But there has been no real crisis as of yet as the major reservoirs are not completely dry. My question is:

 

What if there is another year of below average rainfall?

 

Over the past six months there has been some evidence that a normal rainfall pattern was coming to Cali this fall. But as of today, the forecast of fall/winter rain is now in doubt.

The folks at NOAA (and a lot of other scientific types) believe that Pacific Coast rain is driven by the El Nino/La Nina cycles in the Pacific ocean. When there are La Nina conditions rainfall is low (yellow) during El Nino conditions rainfall is higher (blue).

 

lanina

el Nin0

 

The west coast drought is now in its third year. It's no coincidence that there has been no El Ninos during this period:

 

esochart

Earlier this year there was a water temperature "anomaly" that lead a few weather folks to predict that a "Super El Nino" was coming to Cali. More charts:

 

Screen Shot 2014-08-11 at 4.01.03 PM

This was a very big anomaly 'bump'. The media picked up on it:

 

wired

wapo

But the bump went away, and with it went the expectation for a strong El Nino (lots of rain). NOAA has kept up its forecast of an El Nino this fall/winter. However, as of today NOAA downgraded the outlook (Link):

 

8.4noaa_edited-2

 

august11noaa_edited-1

 

Clearly there has been an El Nino head-fake this year. It's now more probable that Pacific waters remain in neutral condition for the next six months. If we don't get an El Nino, the West Coast will likely see below average precipitation for another year. Another year of drought would mean that some large population areas will have real water problems (rationing). The consequences to agriculture, industry, tourism and wildfires will be multiples of what they are this year.

Notes:

#1) El Nino increases the potential for rain in the West, it also reduces the probability of Atlantic hurricanes (the prevailing El Nino winds shear off the tops of the big storms). NOAA has a very benign outlook for the 2014 hurricane season. That forecast is (was) supported by the 80% chance of an El Nin0. The NOAA forecast:

 

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

NOAA’s updated 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that a below-normal season is likely. The outlook calls for a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of an above-normal season.

 

#2) I'm no weather expert - I read what the scientists are saying, and I watch the weekly numbers.

 

landsign

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:40 | 5079778 alexcojones
alexcojones's picture

Another reason for drought, besides the SUN, is the weather manipulation.

   "Often we wondered why nobody ever seemed to look up. Like the stupidest lab rats in history, most humans we saw seemed to neither know nor care they we were being tested and experimented upon, and slowly poisoned."

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:39 | 5079753 alexcojones
alexcojones's picture

When I lived for years in Santa Monica, I used to tell people about CHEMTRAILS.

Smart people laughed at me, a goofy guy.

And so I took a roadtrip with a NATO friend from Norway and wrote this.

Chemtrails Over America's Playgrounds
Mon, 08/11/2014 - 21:40 | 5080060 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

"A predicted low pressure forecast from the Weather Channel would almost always bring the sky poisoners out in legion"

"Contrails form when hot humid air from jet exhaust mixes with environmental air of low vapor pressure and low temperature. The process is similar to the cloud you see when you exhale and "see your breath" in cold weather."


 Could it be that there were just as many planes in the sky when the barometric pressure was high but you didn't see their contrails because the jet exhaust didn't condense?

It's very hard to see jets in the sky when they DO NOT leave contrails

One of the great stoned experiences of my life was laying on my back in Tuolumne Meadows and seeing two jets with contrails form a cross exactly over me.  The planes weren't a minute apart and the two arms were exactly perpendicular.

No water worries then. 

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:02 | 5079564 Salsipuedes
Salsipuedes's picture

Ocean temps in California off the charts this summer. http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/the-tropics-come-to-california_115827/ Let me suggest something: This is not the usual ebb and flow. This is ALL man made (wittingly or not).

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 23:45 | 5080493 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

the water temp has been unreal although it varies (or at least the reporting varies) then we have those waves of anchovies which came right up to the beach, and people were grabbing them in buckets. the weatherman later said, the grunion are running but you need a license and they arent very good to eat (hint eat the anchovies theyre free) the return of ocean life the last few years is remarkable, sea lions, sharks, if there is a man made consequence its been a positive  one for the environment.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:46 | 5081728 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

I walk the beaches alot. Last year the surf fishing was great - it was like the ocean was more alive.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 16:07 | 5080631 Salsipuedes
Salsipuedes's picture

Positive for YOUR environment in the O.C. perhaps, however temporarily. They're flooding down from the Aleutians, Canada, et. al. along with everything else that can still migrate south from the Fukushima plumes destroying everything in it's path (that's 24/7 folks). Great White sharks and sea lions like cold water dumbkopf. To say we fucked up the entire planet doesn't mean we want government to fix it. THEY FUCKED IT UP! "DON"T MESS WITH MOTHER NATURE " (a famous margarine commercial from the 60s that was the height of Orwellian Speak.) Vaya con Dios and have some bluefin with your anchovie civiche. It's on me.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 22:00 | 5080163 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Some solar oddities too. 

Suspicious 0bserver

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 19:56 | 5079551 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

Here's the thing. Before the "Great Moderation", the EAst Coast of the USA produced gobs of vegetation for human consumption. We had gtruck farming in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, NC, PA and lower NY. It was only the perversity of fuel prices that allowed Cali to run these industries into the ground. My guess is with or without drought, CAli reign in the vegy dept. is nearly finished. I welcome back local produce, and this time absent Monsanto and Co.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:39 | 5079766 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Just so.  There are places in the world with real food problems.  The US is not one of them.  Production can be ramped up quickly.  Our college town has an odd group of Preppers, Hippies, and locals who never trusted the sprayed stuff, so the transition is minor.  I have deer in my yard every evening eating the green apples falling with every storm.  No need to waste bullets.  I can kill one with a golf club any time I want.  We are all part of the solution.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 19:48 | 5079515 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

The probability of an El Nino winter has fallen, but it's still at 65% (per NOAA, 8/7/14).

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 19:41 | 5079469 radiobomb
radiobomb's picture

 solar-powered desalination plants could be a good solution.... at least for those nearer the coast.  Further inland though,  could get tricky....  

the 100yr+  Ca super-drouts of previous centuries didnt get a mention in the above article, & are relevant to cyclical weather patterns which are mapped in millenia from fossil records ... so it could be a long ride....  

[meanwhile, fyi - we in europe are having a bit of a wash-out summer and it's been a really wet year - typical.]

 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 15:14 | 5083138 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Will provide water for drinking, nothing for Ag.

California is Big Ag. They get everything, every time. This is looking really ugly.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 19:24 | 5079382 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Ha...all this useless chatter about rain predicting makes me laff mightily ! Keep it up ! ...you killin me !

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 19:43 | 5079484 d edwards
d edwards's picture

According to talk host Roger Hedgecock (KFMB San Diego) the state of CA has the potential to store 800,000 acre-feet (one acre of ground covered one foot deep with water) via reservoirs and dams. BUT, this water is allowed to flow into the Pacific Ocean in order to provide "habitat" for the Delta Smelt.

Citizens of CA, WTF is the matter with you? You let the enviro-wackos threaten your existence.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 13:13 | 5082488 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

A lot of the water has to run anyway to keep salt water away from the delta ag pumps, and this year they are barely able to do it. Talk of having to shut down some of the islands, that's a big deal. That "delta smelt" thing is something the rednecks like to trot out, but trust me Big Ag is behind everything has to do with water in CA.

The problem is, there is no snow pack. Most of the water of any use in CA (esp, SoCal) comes from snow run-off during summer. Winter rains do what rain does, mostly runs to the sea. The snow pack sticks and then feeds the big impoundments at the feet of the Sierra Nevadas. Most of it goes south from there.

There is no snow. Nothing. Nothing to even measure. Not for years. It's just gone.

SoCal is as good as dead. Unless we get 22' of snow this winter, SoCal is toast.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:51 | 5079822 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> WTF is the matter with you

Roger Hedgecock is just another blathering right wing politician/entertainer.  His views are just that.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:49 | 5081744 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

d edwards.

 

 

1) Not enough rain, we raise your water bill

2) Too much rain, we can't catch it - we raise your water bill to increase storage capacity.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:50 | 5079814 Axenolith
Axenolith's picture

Shasta dam alone is 4.55 million acre feet.  Does he mean "additional"?  Did you forget some 0's?

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 19:15 | 5079336 mastersnark
mastersnark's picture

I see Mexican "kids" will always find a way to screw over America.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:52 | 5079191 monad
monad's picture

Its been a cool, wet summer. I see lots of dragonflies, they are more prolific when its wet. I also see sand bags being stacked by the utility companies near their unoccupied facilities.

Its going to rain bitchez. 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 13:08 | 5082462 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Yeah A lot of wet in the air for this time of year. Bay Area getting a lot of fog. However I think it's just seasonal monsoon spill-over from Central America. We're not getting a drop out of it. The weather patterns are all wrong, seems like.

It better rain some this winter. Or more than that, it better snow. The latter I fear we will never see again, in which case the outlook for SoCal is bleak as hell.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 19:26 | 5079387 Bárðarbunga
Bárðarbunga's picture

Man, I wish it would rain bitchez around here. But all we get is rain.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:36 | 5079087 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

It's already raining in Nevada. Speed Week rained out on the Bonneville Salt Flats, something that only happens every 30 years or so.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 02:17 | 5079609 Salsipuedes
Salsipuedes's picture

Maybe it floods the Data Center! There's always a silver lining (but it does fuck all for the pool people out there playing golf on the greens in the desert).

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:31 | 5079056 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Do we blame Bush or ISIS?

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:02 | 5081491 grunk
grunk's picture

This time you actually CAN blame the weather.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 19:02 | 5079257 Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

We blame ISIS and then we blame Bush for creating ISIS and ignore that fact that OBAMA gave military support to ISIS in Syria which is now ISIS in Iraq.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 09:57 | 5081470 ATM
ATM's picture

Which was armed by Hillary through the Benghazi CIA station that the gay ambassador died visiting.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:15 | 5078993 limacon
limacon's picture

"Have gravel , will travel ." Steinbeck

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:07 | 5078935 knukles
knukles's picture

Ain't much water left in many reservoirs (visual reality) and much of what could be used for Ag purposes in the Central Valley is shunted south to the LA area for swimming pools, green lawns, car washes and wet tee-shirt contests.  Everywhere in the state, consumption is down.  With one exception.

EXCEPT the greater LA area where it's up 8%....yeah, home of Hollywierd and the Propaganda machine

When you folks out east (wherever) have lettuce costing more than the no gasoline gonna be imported for nowhere in the middle east, call Jerry Brown and Barack Obama.  It is openly the policy of the state and Feds to restrict water usage in the Central Valley (where most is drip, etc., believe it or not) in favor of up north, the one eyed green neon salmon frog in the Sacramento River (they flush out millions of gallons for salmon etc.....  yeah, waste it... the salmon did just fucking fine for centuries without man's intervention) or ship it via the aqueducts to LA for voter consumption.

Yes, we have a weather made drought.
Exaggerated a bazillion times over by politics.
I know.  I've family in the CV Ag biz.

And the more they fuck it up (rationing and allocations) the worse it gets which begets more political intervention.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:26 | 5079039 Babaloo
Babaloo's picture

And your family is a bunch of liars.  The vast, vast majority of central valley ag is not on drip.  They just pour millions of acre feet of water out of a pipe onto their fields of cotton (I don't eat a lot of cotton, You?) and alfalfa and rice.  Yeah rice.  Who the eff grows rice in a desert? 

Oh yeah, and almonds. Huge amounts of water go to almonds, which are then exported. 

So, nice to see you've bought into the propaganda the California farmers are pumping up your ass.  You have quite the analytical viewpoint in your post...

http://www.pge.com/includes/docs/pdfs/shared/edusafety/training/pec/water/blaine-hanson_water_forum_complete.pdf

What percentage of California water does agriculture use?  80%

 

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:49 | 5079809 Axenolith
Axenolith's picture

So fuckin' what (80% ag use)? Most of the early water infrastructure system was put in place for agriculture in the first place, with hydropower as a bonus.  When the demand wasn't as high and years were wet the excess was allocated secondarily to urban/other uses.  LA has bitched over the Colorado allocations because they got used to the excess when there was nothing in NV and AZ and when those states grew and decided to excercise their original allocations there was a non planning hue and cry.

All of these whonks have these "serious policy discussions" over water, but the dirty little secret they won't mention a lot is that a good chunk of the water is tied up in pre 1914 vested rights, i.e. what the STATE would like to do is steer the discussion in the direction of convincing enough voters to screw vested rights holders out of their property so it can be "redistributed" to their pals and city bound voting blocks...

BTW, cotton growth in CA is down about 70% from its highs, and most tree crop growers have either hard contracts or vested rights because it's STUPID to plant a 30 year investment without the assurance of consistant water.

If cities need water they can pony up the dough to either desalinate, pipe it from Canada or tow a damn iceberg down the coast.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 09:57 | 5081467 ATM
ATM's picture

In other words it's stupid for 10s of millions of people to live smack dab in the middle of a fucking desert. I suggest they move to Honduras and Nicaragua and Guatamala and Southern Mexico. Good climate, ample rainfall and apparently they now have a population problem - not enough people!

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 19:37 | 5079452 knukles
knukles's picture

My family are liars?
And you source UC Davis, a uber-leftist of center, communist, socialist, social and central planners deluxe institution, funded by one of the most left of center governments in the US, in schools which teach only Politically Correct Fairy Tales..... and the Economist magazine?

Get a grip, son.
If water were not allocated and rationed by the "authorities" as I pointed out, then there'd be no systematic mis-priceing ...
Don't choke to death on your liar's grown holiday dinner.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 13:04 | 5082429 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Knukles, water use in CA Ag is insane, you and I both know it. And the south it's a desert, for fuck's sake. I've driven the length of I-5 and it looks like an inland sea in places with rice fields 12" deep, quarter-mile long rows of irrigated tomatoes, acres of rainbird sprinklers run across fruit and nut orchards running 24/7 all summer.

I grew up in Chico, in the north, surrounded by rice and almonds but it was nothing compared to the stretch south of Gridley all the way to Bakersfield.

Of course, this is feeding the nation and the world. That's just a fact. But let's not claim it's sustainable; even the flood farmers pumping free water know it's not going to last.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 21:06 | 5079890 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Having spent half my life at UC Teargas I can tell you that UCD is the most conservative of the UC campuses, which puts it somewhere between Lenin and Trotsky on the statist scale. LAWR is one of the most left leaning departments so the presentation is a bit slanted. I'm glad I moved from the city of All Things Right and Relevant. On the other hand the "authorities" did pay to develop the vast majority of those water resources, which the farmers knew when they planted those dead orchards that line I5. Still I'm on your side. If you only have half the water, plant half the crops you normally would. Don't have the commisars tell you what you should or shouldn't use that half on. Those trees would still be alive if the alfalfa growers could have fallowed their fields and sold their allotments to the almond orchards.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:37 | 5079757 americanreality
americanreality's picture

Sometimes less is more.  Your comments. 

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 19:20 | 5079368 mastersnark
mastersnark's picture

As I type this I'm looking at a pic of a flood irrigated field in the Central Valley. The friend who sent it can't figure out how there can be a problem if he can still water his law and there is about 18" of water sitting on 15 acres behind him in 95 degree heat.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 19:41 | 5079477 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Water in the west is political. Always has been, always will be.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:58 | 5079226 woolybear1
woolybear1's picture

true, california almonds are awful and their export dumping prices have ruined the almond business in Spain whose almonds are vastly superior.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:03 | 5081825 RallyRoundTheFamily
RallyRoundTheFamily's picture

I just ate some Marcona Almonds and was like WTF is this?

Heaven 

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:54 | 5079197 torabora
torabora's picture

Actually Ag uses closer to 70% in a normal year....but 'off books' groundwater well water use is unmonitored. Wells are being drilled daily especially now. Also water is being reallocated from those that have to those that can pay, and orchards are being ripped out,,,they wear out anyway, so get ahead of the problem,,,some 2700 tier 2 users have been 100% cut off as well.

 

Lawyers are making bank.

 

Interesting that the California aqueduct, a Gov Pat Brown legacy, loses half its water on its way to LA from cracks in the concrete ditch and evaporation.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 12:00 | 5082139 SoCalBusted
SoCalBusted's picture

Maybe Jerry plans on shipping the water with the high speed train.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:55 | 5081771 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

torabora - Good info on the water leaking on the way to Socal

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 02:47 | 5080785 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Doesn't affect me that much since I mostly avoid eating anything from Cali that has been coated with pesticide then radiated with Fuki.

 

Interestingly, as an aside, a recent paper found the autism rate almost 10x higher in families that live near these pesticide-sprayed fields of fruit and/or vegetables.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 17:58 | 5078906 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

That's OK...the EU will have plenty of extra fruits and veges to sell

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:09 | 5078959 Coletrane
Coletrane's picture

which they will have to sell for a king's ransom to pay their heating bills this coming winter

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 17:57 | 5078891 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Forget about ebola... THIS is going to have a major effect on the nation.

That's 50% of fruit and veggies people...

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!