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Will it Rain in California this Winter?

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

 

High on my list of: THINGS THAT COULD GO VERY WRONG, is the drought in the west coast. The three year run of below average rain has already had a big toll. Agricultural production is way off, fires are burning in all of the affected states, and there has been some curbs on water consumption by individuals. But there has been no real crisis as of yet as the major reservoirs are not completely dry. My question is:

 

What if there is another year of below average rainfall?

 

Over the past six months there has been some evidence that a normal rainfall pattern was coming to Cali this fall. But as of today, the forecast of fall/winter rain is now in doubt.

The folks at NOAA (and a lot of other scientific types) believe that Pacific Coast rain is driven by the El Nino/La Nina cycles in the Pacific ocean. When there are La Nina conditions rainfall is low (yellow) during El Nino conditions rainfall is higher (blue).

 

lanina

el Nin0

 

The west coast drought is now in its third year. It's no coincidence that there has been no El Ninos during this period:

 

esochart

Earlier this year there was a water temperature "anomaly" that lead a few weather folks to predict that a "Super El Nino" was coming to Cali. More charts:

 

Screen Shot 2014-08-11 at 4.01.03 PM

This was a very big anomaly 'bump'. The media picked up on it:

 

wired

wapo

But the bump went away, and with it went the expectation for a strong El Nino (lots of rain). NOAA has kept up its forecast of an El Nino this fall/winter. However, as of today NOAA downgraded the outlook (Link):

 

8.4noaa_edited-2

 

august11noaa_edited-1

 

Clearly there has been an El Nino head-fake this year. It's now more probable that Pacific waters remain in neutral condition for the next six months. If we don't get an El Nino, the West Coast will likely see below average precipitation for another year. Another year of drought would mean that some large population areas will have real water problems (rationing). The consequences to agriculture, industry, tourism and wildfires will be multiples of what they are this year.

Notes:

#1) El Nino increases the potential for rain in the West, it also reduces the probability of Atlantic hurricanes (the prevailing El Nino winds shear off the tops of the big storms). NOAA has a very benign outlook for the 2014 hurricane season. That forecast is (was) supported by the 80% chance of an El Nin0. The NOAA forecast:

 

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

NOAA’s updated 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that a below-normal season is likely. The outlook calls for a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of an above-normal season.

 

#2) I'm no weather expert - I read what the scientists are saying, and I watch the weekly numbers.

 

landsign

 

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Tue, 08/12/2014 - 14:45 | 5082970 JRobby
JRobby's picture

When do the crop and property insurers pull out?

Someone who lives there should ask.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 13:06 | 5082447 Landrew
Landrew's picture

We planted two large gardens this year. I have never canned before, however, this year will be part of the learning curve. Next year my son and I may plant the entire 4 acres. Seem we in Chicago area now have the weather of Northern Wisconsin. 70's in August, never in my wildest dreams.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:05 | 5078937 knukles
knukles's picture

And lotsa beef and dairy, too.
And Tesla cars... Fuck Tesla while we're at it...

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:34 | 5079083 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

The rain shall return once you mother fuckers repent unto the LORD.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:49 | 5079166 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"It never rains in California, but girl, don't they warn ya
It pours, man, it pours.

Out of work, I'm out of my head
Out of self respect, I'm out of bread
I'm under loved, I'm underfed
I wanna go home."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pyC7WnvLT4

El Nino is overdue, this year or next.

Nature does have its cycles.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:15 | 5079648 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Great song, remember it well. Clued me into what southern California is ;-)

"Seems it never rains in Southern California
Seems I've often heard that kind of talk before
It never rains in California, but girl, don't they warn ya
It pours, man, it pours"

 

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:50 | 5079808 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Deceptive place.  I dated a chic from La Jolla years ago.  Beautiful park like environment.  Within that first two miles from the coast, it is a garden of Eden   Drive five miles east and up, and you couldn't feed a jack rabbit. 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 00:40 | 5080605 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Spent 11-16 yrs. old in La Jolla, my Dad called it a "Domed Community" meaning it had an artificial dome over it.

The Middle School was a chaotic mix of Blacks, Latino's, Whites, and Oreo Blacks and Latinos.  Interesting experience.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 21:26 | 5079999 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Yes, a very deceptive place ;-)

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 21:46 | 5080088 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Side note. A bunch of us guys years ago in our mid 20s ventured out from Chi-town to Cali. We lived on Fiesta Island in San Diego, on the beach, taking cold showers in the turf or what accomodations we could. Not fun. Sold our plasma for $8/ + $5 every 3rd visit to be able to eat the chicken broth and buy gas. We did a job for a wealthy client that had a house in La Jolla during Thanksgiving and let us stay in their furnished home for a month or so until we got our shit together. One of the best times of my life. Man a real shower felt good.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:46 | 5079148 BeagleOne
BeagleOne's picture

Did you forget the "snark" tag?

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:53 | 5079195 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

In fact, I did not.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:23 | 5079691 DOT
DOT's picture

Must be a lot of believers on their knees in Wisconsin; the weather has been perfectly wonderful !

 

My humble perdiction is that it will be a bit cooler come winter.

 

 

 

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 21:45 | 5080083 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

WI and N Illinois corn looks as good as I have ever seen....at least we'll have field corn to munch..

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 15:00 | 5083060 KnightTakesKing
KnightTakesKing's picture

Unless you are a cow or hog, field corn is pretty much inedible to humans.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 09:43 | 5081412 ATM
ATM's picture

Add in Indiana and C. Illinois as well. Indiana corn is 12 feet tall, beans are phenomenal.

All we need now is for the fucking government to end the idiotic dairy pricing schemes and allow all those BS dairy operations in California to whither and die as WI production ramps back up and puts them out of business. WI is the perfect place for the raising of dairy cattle. It produces more per cow, better quality and at the lowest cost. California not so much but because government skews the pricing places like California nd Florida have huge dairy operations.

Just another example of failed central planning. 

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:10 | 5079628 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

The Lord needs to send Gabriel or Michael to have a word with the pilots of those KC130's that keep spraying heavy metal aerosols every GODDAM F'N TIME A NEW SYSTEM COMES IN ON THE WEST COAST.

48 HRS PRIOR -- EACH TIME--EVERYTIME - ALL ANYONE HAS TO DO IS LOOK UP THE PACIFIC COAST.

yeah... for the decade

I've been doing genuflections and even the cactus are pissed.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:51 | 5079821 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Those pilots are doing God's work.

Repent.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:54 | 5079833 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

... you have a point!

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 18:39 | 5079104 armageddon addahere
armageddon addahere's picture

"The rain shall return once you mother fuckers repent unto the LORD."

 

Living in California must be like living in the Old Testament.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 21:02 | 5079865 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

That picture sure doesn't look like Downey California.  There isn't a square inch of Downey not covered in asphalt.

 

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 20:14 | 5079650 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

It wasn't named after the 'Caliph of Orion' for nothing amigo!

Even its shape is suggestive of Orion constellation.

How long? 770 miles long. Hmmmmmmmm

10 degrees long by 10 degrees wide.

The 10 of inTENsity. 

The 7 of perfection.

Mon, 08/11/2014 - 19:02 | 5079260 negative rates
negative rates's picture

The only thing cali has going for it is that Bruce is predicting no rain. And on more than one occasion i have seen water predictions of his not materialize. I'm a hugh fan, don't get me wrong, but it has to not rain somewhere and better now in cali, than in the future.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:36 | 5082003 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

Chumba, that made me laugh out loud!

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