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Ebola Outbreak Evolving "In Alarming Ways," WHO Warns 20,000 Could Be Infected
More than 20,000 people may be infected with the Ebola virus before the outbreak in West Africa is controlled, warns the World Health Organization. As we noted previously, they believe the costs to fight this epidemic will be $490 million (higher than the previous $430 million estimate) as Bloomberg reports the WHO roadmap released today warns "The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak continues to evolve in alarming ways." So far, the virus has infected more than 3,000 people, making it the biggest outbreak ever, and has killed more than 1,550. It’s on a pace to cause more deaths than all previous outbreaks combined.
More than 20,000 people may be infected with the Ebola virus before the outbreak in West Africa is controlled and curbing the epidemic will cost at least $490 million, according to a World Health Organization plan.
The number of people falling ill is accelerating, with more than 40 percent of the infections happening in the past 21 days, the Geneva-based United Nations agency said in an e-mailed statement today. In some areas, the number of cases may be two to four times higher than reported, the WHO said in a separate document, a so-called road map that lays out the plan to deal with the situation.
“The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak continues to evolve in alarming ways,” the WHO said in the road map released today. Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone are “struggling to control the escalating outbreak against a backdrop of severely compromised health systems, significant deficits in capacity and rampant fear.”
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The WHO’s cost estimate is up from $430 million in a draft of the road map reported by Bloomberg News this week.
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One potential trajectory of the outbreak based on current growth...
h/t Reginald B
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Lastly, we noted yesterday that Africa GDP was estimated to drop 4% on the 3,000 infected cases so far... one can only imagine the carnage to the nations' economies if the cases hit 20,000...
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With the underreporting that even WHO admits is going on, it's probably more like 10,000 infected already.
Wow this really legitimizes the WHO thank god I have them as part of my future global socialist overlord government.
from: http://rt.com/usa/183456-cdc-frieden-ebola-outbreak/
The head of the Centers for Disease Control in the United States warned this week that the situation in west Africa remains grim following the deaths of more than 1,500 people due to the Ebola virus.
"I wish I didn't have to say this, but it is going get worse before it gets better," CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden told the Associated Press this week upon completion of a trip to Liberia — one of four west African countries where the fatal disease continues to claim lives amidst one of the worst outbreaks ever of its kind.
The situation there "is overwhelming," Dr. Frieden told National Public Radio in an interview from Monrovia, Liberia earlier this week, where he said the outbreak "really is a crisis and is affecting most if not all the counties in Liberia already.”
Doesn't seem this outbreak is morphing into a pandemic. That's the good news. The bad news is clearly the virus IS morphing and will continue to do so. Future outbreaks may be more potent and widespread.
You guys are getting really confused. But I guess you like it that way.
So that's it. I'm out.
please don't go
Yeah. You and Miffed have been referenced a couple times as important voices here. Stick around.
Shit 20,000 ain't nothing. I thought there was a chance this would be serious. Guess not. Car crashes kill 40,000 each year in the US. What's the big deal?
The key words in this article are $430 million. The various 'stakeholders', including the dictators of the countries involved, all foresee rich pickings.
Mark my words, in six months time everyone will have frgotten about this end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it plague.
I set up a reminder on my calendar. We'll see.
It's serious but limited. I agree with you, this is not growing exponentially. However, this strain is clearly different from earlier ones, less mortality and easier to transmit, meaning a virus more capable of a lasting spread thorugh the populace. Wait a few years and we may have something that can't be controlled.
If you graph the WHO infection/death stats they are, so far, exponential (>90% correlation). That is a fact. Graph the numbers yourself if you doubt it.
It is arguable if it has 'less mortality' as it has been found 'supportive treatement' such as fluid replacement helps the survival rate. It may just be a case of better care for those that are ill.
Not saying this is the case, just an FYI. Typically a very fatal bug will have to reduce the mortality rate to survive and prosper.
why is it that a bureaucracy speaks in obtuse phrases? wtf does " continues to evolve in alarming ways" mean? Cut to the chase and speak in plain English.
Is it airborne? Yes or no. Very simple to answer.
What is the appropriate action to take to reduce infection? Death?
etc. Perhaps the media isn't speaking plain English.
CDC worker with "low-risk" exposure brought back to US.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/08/27/cdc-worker-exposed-...
Also a WHO worker with Ebola taken to Germany.
"A World Health Organization staff member infected with the Ebola virus arrived in Germany for treatment Wednesday after being evacuated from West Africa."
http://online.wsj.com/articles/ebola-patient-arrives-in-germany-for-trea...
I am still waiting for a new story on the 50,000 people in quarentine?
IF 50,000 people are in quarentine in a slum, and slum = death with a disease like this, (every poop and pee potentially spreads disease) there are going to be 20K in just a few more weeks, not just over the entire course of the outbreak.
There are news stories about dogs eating corpses in the street, which means this is not contained by any defination of the word, or, are a lot of reports just sentational lies?
What is the current believeable version of the truth here?
Clearly there is a lot of dis-information on just how bad this is.
Case in point:
This article just came out, and is claiming 4000+ deaths already:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/ebola-virus-has-mu...
OH - that brings up a good point that many of you might not know:
Dogs are probably carriers: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15757552
I wonder how long they stay infectious?
It just keeps getting better and better, doesn't it?. . .
"The number of people falling ill is accelerating, with more than 40 percent of the infections happening in the past 21 days, the Geneva-based United Nations agency said in an e-mailed statement today."
“The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak continues to evolve in alarming ways,” the WHO said in the road map released today."
It looks to me like WHO are preparing the ground for announcing that Ebola can be airborne.
ZH knew it before WHO and CDC.
Technically - influenza is not "airborne" either - it is "droplet transmissible" - and look at how that will spread through a community like a mother-fucker.
The important point here is the infection rate. It is exponential and is ready (if it hasnt' already) to move from thousands, to tens of thousands. If that rate holds - watch the fuck out. Within a year or two we could be well into the millions.
Good points.
When I say Ebola is probably airborne, I am really referring roughly to what you say ..that it survives outside of the body/fluids and is carried in the air on moist breath or people sneezing/coughing and things like that. This means that crowded public transport, airplanes, bars/restaurants/clubs and other places where people congregate are all serious risk centres.
So far, WHO have danced around that by saying that it's only caught from body fluids (or what people understand to be body fluids). It looks like they're about to change their storyline, perhaps because the numbers of infections are rising as you say.
Absolutely - The WHO is clearly using a technical definition to obfuscate the fact that this shit can, and is being transmitted by mere proximity, ie you don't have to be licking a sick person to become infected - a fact which should be obvious to anyone paying attention to the number of health care workers who are getting infected with low-level protective gear.
"...is being transmitted by mere proximity, ie you don't have to be licking a sick person to become infected"
You got it in one.
.....now where's my pack of triple strength face masks (!)
A global ebola pandemic/epidemic would also make a wonderful cover story for why things collapsed.
If I had an intimate role in a debt-based system of finance I knew wouldn't hold, I'd swing that angle as an excuse like my life depended on it. Yep.
No, no, 'twas a virus, I swear.
+10. All they have to do is 'wait' a while for mother nature to do another killer virus/bacteria or wait for another Katrina, or another 1901 San Fran Earthquake or a nice racial civil war to hit.
They could always go with an ISIS operative blowing up a nuclear power plant...Lady GaGa renouncing sin and confessing Jesus and going to work at the 700 club, or perhaps Hillary & Pelosi quiting their jobs, ditching their worthless husbands and moving in together to a nice cozy hamlet in Argentina.
Ahh..the list is endlist.
....Indeeeyah!
Oh yeah....sprinkle a bunch of ebola case all over 1.5 billion people and shaazaam! Long Caterpillar for moving mountains of dead corpses. Long Ohio Blue Tip Matches!
Every country has its own religion. USA is "COMFORT" as in you ask your gf to do something kinky, what do you hear? "...I'm not comfortable with that." For India, their religion is CHAOS. A bus will hold 68 seated passengers. They sell 51 tickets, yet Indians feel compelled to stomp a dozen people to death. Just their deal, nothing more or less.
Any ZHers take an intra-Indian flight?: Oh My Krishna. The Boeing 737 is on final descent....the plane is still flying, yet ALL INDIANS on board rush to the front of the plane. Once the plane touches down, all that weight on the nosewheel causes the plane to wheelbarrow like crazy down the runwat. This is common place. Indians love to stand on any corner and ORATE. You got it, preach to 2 people or 20k
India and obola: take a 5 gal gas can and splash most of it about...leave gas lid off. Light a match...you will hear a W-H-A w-h-a WHUUMPH! Populatioin gets knocked back to 5 million...those left in USA.
I don't know why they just don't shoot for the moon and say 100 million deaths. Die Die Die, bleed bleed bleed. Are you scared enough to write a check yet?
Ooooh that is gonna leave a mark. #B2CAD7
hmmmmmm
(Reuters) - Genetic studies of some of the earliest Ebola cases in Sierra Leone reveal more than 300 genetic changes in the virus as it leapt from person to person, changes that could blunt the effectiveness of diagnostic tests and experimental treatments now in development, researchers said on Thursday.
...
What is not clear from the study is whether the mutations are fueling the epidemic by allowing the virus to grow better in people and become easier to spread. That will require further tests in the lab, Garry said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/28/us-health-ebola-genome-idUSKBN...
To....
'Miffed'
'Cougar'
'Iridium Rebel'
I for one would LOVE a write up of your opinions (both brief and extensive) and a copedium of any sites you deemed trustworthy and accurate.
I do not have much worry about this coming to the U.S. (except as a planned terrorist act) but my heart goes out to these poor people trapped in their respective hells.
And while I do not often jump to conspiratorial theories (why assign goverment subterfuge when mother nature does this naturally and on a regular basis) uh....just how much power/influences and resources was China developing in Africa?
So you're on board with camp FEMA-bola, spreading the quarantine risk "for the children" around the USA?
'nothing to see here folks, move along'
Any charts on how long I have to wait until my afternoon commute will reduce from 40 minutes to 30?