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Does France Need A 21st Century Revolution?
Submitted by Saxobank's Steen Jakobsen via TradingFloor.com,
French President François Hollande unveiled his new government under Prime Minister Manuel Valls on August 26, and there have been a few changes. While most senior ministers have retained their positions, economic minister Arnaud Montebourg was replaced by Emmanuel Macron, a former investment banker and economic adviser at the Elysée.
Hollande is already the most unpopular president in French history so he is not risking much by removing a political opponent like Montebourg (who should never have been part of a so-called reform program to begin with). Montebourg is a man of the old school and of old ideas: Among other things, he titled himself "Minister of Industrial Resurrection." His ideas included threatening to fine businesses for each job they failed to create and speaking against globalisation.
Mired in economic stagnation and barely concealed unrest, France is a nation that often seems displeased with its lot. But will things have to get worse before they get better? Photo: Getty
The problem for President Hollande and any reform efforts is that, as much as removing Montebourg was a victory for his economic strategy, it was also a loss in terms of his political ability to rule both his party and the French state. We often forget that economic policy without political backing is like skiing without snow: Policy needs political anchoring.
The supply-side economics and ideas of Prime Minister Valls are good, but they are not sufficient to stop the "rotting of France". More and more observers argue that what France needs is either an European Central Bank that goes into full Quantitative Easing mode, a France that pushes for fiscal expansion, or even both. Not only is that short-sighted, it´s also wrong: France needs a new political system, a new tax regime, a less bloated government sector, and fewer subsidies. France is not lost, it´s just disorientated and lacks purpose.
France is its own worst enemy. It believes in old virtues and ideas from a time gone by. Dirigisme, the French version of socialist capitalism, has failed. In its place there needs to appear a a robust commitment to its strong and well-educated workforce. France has the ability to innovate and its early stage small- and medium-enterprise support ranks among the best in the world. Unfortunately, its tax policy, its inability to attract capital and — more importantly — its dismal return on capital are significant impediments to new growth or any reforms.
France needs a Thatcher moment, with a new leader brave enough to get elected on a mandate for change. It needs a leader brave enough to tear down a political system that generates macro- rather than micro-scaled policies, an elitist society with too many incentives for bad behaviour and disincentives for private initiative, innovation and hard work. With or without Hollande, France just doesn’t seem ready to change yet. That is why we need a deep recession and even a depression before we see real change. Real changes can only emerge from a true crisis.
The good news is that France that has never been closer to this mandate for change than now, if only because we are quickly approaching the point where things can’t get any worse. French history is full of examples of crisis yielding quickly to dramatic change. The one that comes most quickly to mind is when King Louis XVI lost his monarchical powers during the French revolution. He inherited an enormous state debt (sound familiar?) and tried a number of policy moves, but in the end the crisis overwhelmed him, and he and his Ancién Regime subordinates lost not only their power, but their heads.
It’s time for a 21st century revolution in France. Dirigisme is dying. Vive la France.
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All funded by North Sea oil:
1) the tax cuts for the rich
2) The unemployment benefits for those that used to work in manufacturing
.......
The Thatcher revolution just happned to coincide with North sea oil coming on stream.
Where did the revenue from North Sea oil go?
The illusion of the Thatcher revolution.
What I can't understand s why this writer isn't talking about trickle down economics or tax cuts for the rich.
Don't be stupid. I've got French friends, and nowadays France is the same as any other EU country: the old patterns don't apply and haven't since the EU inception. There hasn't been any dirigism in France since 1981. France is ruled by neoliberal EU, which in turn, is ruled by Wall Street and the USA.
There is NO SOCIALISM in France. It's a front. They follow all the ultraliberal shit Brussels orders them to implement.
Please, for Heaven's sake, do try and know what you're talking about not to mislead you audience. These times are confusing enough as it is.
'Ultraliberal' is a word invented by the same french politicians with massive hidden offshore accounts to give the people a fresh enemy,
None of them EVER created a company
None of them EVER created a single job
None of them EVER created value of any kind
Brussel has nothing to do with economic liberalism
it has everything to do with oligarchs in their bavarian castles and their goldman sachs friends . What exactly is 'austrian/econ. liberal' in the world today ?
Does a country with more than 50 percent GDP going into various 'public spendings' / eurozone regulations / massive political advantages has anything remotely related to liberal economic policies ? or ultra liberal ones for that matter ?
What defines socialism ? the end of ownership of means of production.
Who has the means of production today ? the state and their elite friends.
Who gets screwed up ? tiny businesses and regular taxpayers.
Read Escrava Isaura's comment above to know WHO rules France. Big corporations, just like the USA.
"'Ultraliberal' is a word invented by the same french politicians"
No, it's another word for Milton Friedman's doctrine.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoliberalism
I know the meaning of neoliberalism . 'Ultraliberalisme' , is a french political invention.
I also know who runs france , i left because i couldnt do business with their retarded laws and tax rates.
dp.
+1 I'm french and yes france is ruled by neoliberal EU and brussels now.
You know why people hate Hollande ?
Because it's a false socialist and he uses neoliberal laws and thoughts. His new advisor Emmanuel Macron was in rothschild bank before. Not really 'socialism' lol.
And i suppose you'd prefer true , pure socialism ?
Surely that would be the start of general happiness , and increase his rating dramatically.
You will see the front national growth, because they want national socialism (lol not nazis politic but economic national socialism).
People needs more security (and economic security) and no more muslim, no more europe, they want france to french people.
We don't want TAFTA, this shit for 2015.
(you guessed i'm french too)
i agree and fear a long coming FN taking office during the next or the second next election.
UMP is pretty much gone and offer nothing of value
PS is..well..
I guess there is only one thing that hasnt been tried for the last 60 years..the legendary lepen family.
We'll see how things turn out , i m ready to hand over my passport.
why do i keep double posting?
We double posting because we are french 1 french = double voice lol.
.
what's wrong with free healthcare, public services, labour laws & unemployment benefits ?
what's wrong with 6 weeks paid-holidays ?
apart the fact that the 0.1% make less profit, those psychopath still remain in charge, isn't that enough for you ?
"There is NO SOCIALISM in France."
lol. The proportion of French GDP which is down to Government and its obsession with tax/spend clearly demonstrate you are wrong. Successive socialist French govts have got sticky fingers into every nook and cranny of the economy and society. It's called "dirigism".
That you see govt involvement as "neoliberal" simply tells you how good they are at hiding corporatism which is the EU's current stance.
mitterrand was a fraud (ex-vichy), beregovoy was suicided, delors refused the job, jospin did a 100% neolib policy & valls is a imf agent working directly for the zionists-banksters (ever heard of the French American Foundation ?).
you don't know what you're talking about man.
the last "dirigist" president france had was de Gaulle & he was removed by may 68 (=by the banksters that needed to implant consumption society for good)
You don't know how socialism operates.
France is a socialist country and has been for a very long time. THAT some of its leaders give themselves other labels to fool the masses doesn't change that it is a very statist country. Nobody can deny that.
As I wrote earlier, take one look at the proportion of GDP accounted for by government. That's all you need to know.
you're stuck in that bankster paradigm that want you to believe that every aspect of the economy should be private that free healtcare, public services or labour laws are bad things.
what's wrong with free healthcare ?
what's wrong with public services ?
what's wrong with labour laws ?
(apart that they deprive the 0.1% of some power & profits)
you fail to see the wrong in this world which is not capitalism or socialism or communism because they don't exist. the wrong is those 0.1% of psychopath zionists mother fuckers, that always want more power & control & that decide everything even & especially in so-called socialist countries (that if they were really, wouldn't allow for the state of slavery, this elite indulge upon us through their fractional reserve rate debt paradigm)
Actually, I'm not stuck anywhere and I see a great deal more than you imagine.
"what's wrong with free healthcare ?" -- see British NHS. Complete with its "death panels".
"what's wrong with public services ?" -- see British public services. I have to pay twice to have my bins emptied. Public Servants in Britain are overpaid, over-powered and out of control. That's what's wrong.
"what's wrong with labour laws ?" -- nothing providing workforces don't lose sight of the need for employers to make a profit in order to pay wages.
I grant you that public servants in France appear to run services better than in Britain, but that doesn't mean they can't be run equally well in properly regulated prvate companies and keep the State out of it. The role of the State is to facilitate things to happen, not to run things. France has never learnt this lesson because it is a socialist country.
public services or free health care in uk were destroyed by thatcher; they don't exist no more since 30 years (i lived in uk 3 years, there aren't public services in uk) , also you have to pay the medecine; it ain't free at all
& they are being destroyed in france too in a very similar manneer, although the process is slower, it is very similar, the consequences as well.
you should go to live in scandinavian countries, germany, switzerland to understand what are public services or free health care are about.
you should also study little more about accountancy : the definition of profit is what left AFTER paying the bills (which include the big salaries of the employer as well), not before.
public services can't be run by profit; that is a matter of fact that has been proven all along the XX century in every country public services got privatised. healthcare cannot be provided properly by greed, transport safety cannot be provided properly by greed, good education cannot be provided by greed.
an economay to be sane, however required a middle class that is well educated, healthy & can commute safely -> see scandinavian countries, or swtzerland...
Germany was a near bankrupt basket case.
Until it decided to go it alone and default on its debts in 1933.
It was ready to take on the world six years later.
When you bite the bullet and default on impossible debts you are ready for a fresh start.
You're not supposed to know that part of history!
You're only supposed to believe in escape-velocity-through-more-debt-and-austerity theory.
Fining businesses for every job they do not create? That's effing brilliant! With the government's ability to manufacture economic numbers to suit the politicians' purposes, they should have no problem closing their deficit while spending even moar on their socialist welfare industrial complex. I mean, what could go wrong with such a system...
french people have not realized yet that they will have to learn how to live on $2 a day as the most of the world lives
"Dirigisme, the French version of socialist capitalism, has failed."
propaganda bs; everything is done in france to break this model since the 80's (& a very steep acceleration since 2002) through privatisations, deregulations & minutious destruction bit by bit of the labour laws that were playing against the profits of the 0.1%.
the most they "reform", the most the economy dives into recession & surely they are motherfuckers like this author to explain it's because they didn't reform enough, didn't break enough what was working in fact pretty well.
culmination of that piece of ignorance & hypocrisy & propaganda "France needs a Thatcher moment"
maggie ? the most hated woman ever in uk ? the one that destroys everything that was working in uk to hand over more profits & control to the 0.1%
M Jacobsen from saxobank : go fuck yourself, we know who you are working for, & that's not the people.
And yet people are limited to how many hours per week they can work...or are urged to do so. And look at their vacation requirements. And the other myriad heroin-like social welfare benefits.
So to your comment, I say ..."huh?"
huh ? like
* huh? why pay 1000$ a year for free health care when you can pay 3000$ + 10000$ of health bills before the insurance can kick in (if they didn't find an alinea that can disqualify you) ?
* huh? why have 6 weeks paid holidays when you can have one ?
* huh ? why have time to spend with your kids when you can work all the time ?
huh? why being protected by laws from your employer greed, when you can be at his mercy & find yourself with not a dime to pay your mortgage from one day to another ?
huh ! freedom through hard work for crumbs for you & all profits for the elite, the great utopia !
huh ! "work will set you free", huh ! yes that nice nazi anthem that was written at the entrance of the camps !
* huh ? why question the central banksters & their paradigm when you can accept everything they say as the golden & immaculate truth ?
* huh ? why ever question them when you can be their docile slave for life ?
* huh ? why question wealth & government budgets wasted in killing peasants all over the non-zionist world when you can question any social policy left in your country ?
huh ?!
one more :
* huh ? why having your retirement benefits secured by the state when it can be gamble on any finacial markets by private companies risking a margin call every minute ?
huh ?!!
@hairinthesoup +1000
A question for brucyy: are you planning on spending your hard-earned retirement years in USA or back in France? I'll bet you return to France...
yeah well, i don't know how old is he but i'm afraid that by that time france will be the just same as usa or uk.
"you old & ill & your pension was lost on the bond market ? well just die now, we have no more use for you"
scandinavian countries or switzerland may be a better bet & place to give part of our income to a government to manage the collectivty & its well being (+ they don't participate in imperialist wars)
A typical 'American' assumption is that different ethnic, racial, and religious types can be 'assimilated' into America with the aliens becoming 'Americans' within 3 generations.
50 years after the immigration law of 1965 and the civil rights law of 1964 we find that this assumption is no longer true. Some racial, and religious types are not capable of assimilation or reject it. The America of the last 50 years is not the America of a century earlier. The frontier is closed. The world is 'smaller' and America is more prone to manipulation from outside of the country. We find that in certain quarters that the assimilation concept has been superceded by the idea of 'diversity' where it is no longer necessary for immigrants to ever become 'Americans'. Indeed 'Americans' should adjust to the newcomers. We find that certain political operatives see more opportunity in having 'distinct' minorities and 'balkanizing' America. After 50 years we can no longer assimilate aliens if for no other reason than there are too many. America needs to pause for a generation or two and assimilate those we have now.
The argument is made that we need cheap labor or cheap brain power. In that instance we would best 'import' east Asians and Mexicans only. Yet large numbers of Moslems and Africans are imported from countries that are supposedly America's 'enemies'. Why do that? These people cannot be assimilated.
The ultimate answer to many seemingly puzzling questions is that the policy serves the empire and the people who run it. Not the people, the empire. Those that support the current immigration without knowing this are merely useful idiots. The people overwhelmingly reject this policy, but their voice means nothing.
the only people the melting pot is getting difficult for are the last of the second generation american euro immigrants from the turn of the 20th century. tony's meat market is now an asian grocery and the local high school valedictorian is a first generation indian guy who speaks much better english than you speak. your lawn maintenance guys are mexican from the same extended family(and their kids are going to private catholic schools) and the pakistani guy who runs the quickie store gas station is willing to work the 80 hours/wk you aren't willing to work anymore to make a buck and a half/year so his kids can go to the best schools in the country.
it isn't that diversification doesn't work. it is the people who cannot move forward until the future is past, the bottom half of the class.
"the only people the melting pot is getting difficult for are the last of the second generation american euro immigrants from the turn of the 20th century."
When the competition is brought in on an H1B visa and is cheaper labor (50% off) that is coerced, yeah, it can create some difficulties. And some resentment, if that "second generation american euro immigrant" or his dad served in the military protecting this country. Or if the "euro" had to train his H1B replacement.
"tony's meat market is now an asian grocery"
Tony's son is college educated and doesn't need the quicky mart.
"your lawn maintenance guys are mexican from the same extended family(and their kids are going to private catholic schools)"
I see exactly zero Mexicans at my local Catholic school, but I wouldn't want to stop them from trying. The public schools are garbage. Thanks to people like you.
"the local high school valedictorian is a first generation indian guy who speaks much better english than you speak. "
I'm sure Indians get their share of valedictorians. I'm not sure that a prize for being the most compliant in school is worth much, but someone has to get it. He speaks Urdu better than me and that's it.
You're in over your head here, professor.
anecdotal stories pass as redneck proof.the facts cantradict your stories. sorry, pal. tell your kids how tuff it is as a minority political/economic entity so they can come up with better excuses than you can.
Anecdotal? Nope. But even anecdotes have some basis in reality. Your stuff is pure myth. I'll trust in the judgment of the audience here. This isn't the Oprah show, professor.
I've been quite successful by American standards, so no excuses offered and none accepted.
The lies you guys tell are not going to hold much longer.
One more thing. For a guy who spouts a lot of BS, it's ironic that you claim to be reality based. You want some reality?
Seen Eric Cantor lately?
Have I got your attention now, chum?
I know that I do, because afterward there was lot of hurried activity to save guys like Thad Cochran.
For now anyway. Tick, tock, tick tock.
Zbiggy himself said that empire and democracy are inherently incompatible.
Take a moment and mull the ramifications of that.
A banker calls for revolution. LOL. Can't you just see the pin-striped suits at the barricades throwing paving stones?
What would their revolutionary slogan be? "Bigger bonuses for the suits and bread for all"?
The writer of this article contradicts himself but what can you expect from a banker. It seems to have brought out the trolls in the comments section as well.
And yet Obama and Democrats seek to emulate France and this European economic model. No wonder we're doing so poorly, too.
All of the above see the government as the company they work for. Companies with no competition become stale with misplaced priotities - and eventually other companies take their place. Governments existing as companies have no competition.
I'm not optimistic about France, Japan, or the USA. They all suffer from the same basic disease. Walt Disney showed it best in Pinocchio. Give boys the chance and they'll make asses out of themselves quickly enough.
Hollande, Obama, and their ilk sell what the people want to hear. They tell the intellectual children "Uncle Sugar will provide - don't worry. France will provide for its people. Japan will provide for its people. 'Obama is gonna buy me a house!'"
These idiots have the vote, and gladly sell it for an empty promise.
Yes, there are innovators in France. Yes, France is a nation with a great history of innovation, science, and hard work. That's right: hard work. France has a strong military history too, if you can believe it.
But the brave French soldiers are now in a deep minority. The serious scientists, the entrepreneur (a French word, btw), the innovator - these are all minorities in France now, buried under the tidal wave of lazy, ignorant socialists who eat the seed corn like locusts.
And so goes Japan. And so goes the USA.
And the small pockets where capitalism and freedom still abound, like Singapore? Hardly enough to stem the tide.
No, things will get very bad. And *then* there will be a revolution. Such is the cycle. Look at the Sovied Union - they suffered under the communist yoke for something like 80 years. A nation with all of those resources, and plenty of educated people, shackled for generations.
It can happen. It has happened. And it will likely happen again.
"Workers of the world, unite! Follow me and I will lead you to... well, as Walt said: 'make an ass of yourselves, and then I will enslave you.'"
Why are bankers (Saxobank) getting ANY space on this website ?
Fance is not a Socialist Capitalism country by no stretch of the imagination.
In France 56% of GDP is STATE "Generated" or should I say, "intermediated" ! ...stolen to the French ...
In France:
- ALL public transportation is State-owned that means All Trains all city buses, AirFrance ... you name it.
- All Telecoms networks Are State Owned and operated.
- All urban water and Gas are State-Owned and operated.
- All Roads are State owned.
- All Hospitals (or maybe 90% of then) are State-Owned and operated ...
- All Schools (maybe 95% of them) are State owned and operated.
- All Fuel companies are State owned ad operated. Taxes on Gasoline is around 75%+ ...
And the list goes on.
France like, Most of Southern Europe is in Fact a Socialist country.
airfrance -> privatised long ago
railroads -> privatised more recently
telecom, only one ever was -> have been privatised long ago
highways -> have been privatised (then some road are state owned, other region owned the rest city owned)
hospital -> in the process of being privatised, public hospitals already acting as private & independent entities
schools, a mess since education budget are being shrinked in % of gvt budget year after year (never in history so many teachers from public school putting their kids in private school) as a result, as in usa we can observe a dumbing down of the population
fuel companies ? always been private
all this been corrected, many french have lived the transition between some publicly run PUBLIC services & PRIVATELY run PUBLIC services (find the error lol) and have been very well placed to see the difference between both ways :
since public services have become private : quality of the services are down, costs to use them are up =
new owners of those private public services make more money (the 0.1%); french middle class lives less comfortably & has less money to spend otherwise in the economy.
last but not least that never ever answered question : why is it bad for people to have public service public ? or if you prefer why is it good for public services to be private & not public ?
to further illustrate : why is it better for you to send your kids to a school which first priority is how much money they can make from you than to send them to a school which priority is to provide a smart education ?
why is it better for you to see a doctor in an hospital for which the main objective is to make the most money as possible from your disease rather than one which priority would be to keep you healthy no matter what (no matter it's cheap or costly)?
why is it better for you to use a road belonging to a corporation that wants to maximise profit rather than one managed by people for which the priority is that you travel safely ?
& on & on & on...
France is a failed state.
France does not have a full control of its territory, see the african insurgence in the french cities; you dare not to go to Marseiles or Nice some districts, you dare not to go to some districts in Paris.
15% of the population contributes to the population growth. This are the 15% of peolple, who all are of african descent.
France is doomed and faster, then US with the hispanics; hispanics are sympathetic, they are at least christians.
France is becoming a melting pot like the US.
Arabs (most muslims) and Black People (muslims and christians) are approximatly 10% of the population, Jews 1%, Protestants 2% .. etc ... Believe it or not, most of them are sympathetic ...
First comes hunger, then revolution.