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Top Russia Expert: Ukraine Joining Nato Would Provoke Nuclear War
Stephen Cohen is one of America’s top experts on Russia. Cohen is professor emeritus of Russian studies and politics at New York University and Princeton University, and the author of a number of books on Russia and the Soviet Union.
Cohen says that the West is mainly to blame for the crisis in Ukraine:
This is a horrific, tragic, completely unnecessary war in eastern Ukraine. In my own judgment, we have contributed mightily to this tragedy. I would say that historians one day will look back and say that America has blood on its hands. Three thousand people have died, most of them civilians who couldn’t move quickly. That’s women with small children, older women. A million refugees.
Cohen joins other American experts on Russia – such as former U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union, Jack Matlock – in this assessment.
Cohen also says that if Ukraine joins NATO, it will lead to nuclear war:
[Interviewer:] The possibility of Ukraine in NATO and what that means and what—
STEPHEN COHEN: Nuclear war.
[Interviewer:] Explain.
STEPHEN COHEN: Next question. I mean, it’s clear. It’s clear. First of all, by NATO’s own rules, Ukraine cannot join NATO, a country that does not control its own territory. In this case, Kiev controls less and less by the day. It’s lost Crimea. It’s losing the Donbas—I just described why—to the war. A country that does not control its own territory cannot join Ukraine [sic]. Those are the rules.
[Interviewer:] Cannot join—
STEPHEN COHEN: I mean, NATO. Secondly, you have to meet certain economic, political and military criteria to join NATO.
Ukraine meets none of them. Thirdly, and most importantly, Ukraine is linked to Russia not only in terms of being Russia’s essential security zone, but it’s linked conjugally, so to speak, intermarriage. There are millions, if not tens of millions, of Russian and Ukrainians married together. Put it in NATO, and you’re going to put a barricade through millions of families. Russia will react militarily.
In fact, Russia is already reacting militarily, because look what they’re doing in Wales today. They’re going to create a so-called rapid deployment force of 4,000 fighters. What is 4,000 fighters? Fifteen thousand or less rebels in Ukraine are crushing a 50,000-member Ukrainian army. Four thousand against a million-man Russian army, it’s nonsense. The real reason for creating the so-called rapid deployment force is they say it needs infrastructure. And the infrastructure—that is, in plain language is military bases—need to be on Russia’s borders. And they’ve said where they’re going to put them: in the Baltic republic, Poland and Romania.
Now, why is this important? Because NATO has expanded for 20 years, but it’s been primarily a political expansion, bringing these countries of eastern Europe into our sphere of political influence; now it’s becoming a military expansion. So, within a short period of time, we will have a new—well, we have a new Cold War, but here’s the difference. The last Cold War, the military confrontation was in Berlin, far from Russia. Now it will be, if they go ahead with this NATO decision, right plunk on Russia’s borders. Russia will then leave the historic nuclear agreement that Reagan and Gorbachev signed in 1987 to abolish short-range nuclear missiles. It was the first time nuclear—a category of nuclear weapons had ever been abolished. Where are, by the way, the nuclear abolitionists today? Where is the grassroots movement, you know, FREEZE, SANE? Where have these people gone to? Because we’re looking at a new nuclear arms race. Russia moves these intermediate missiles now to protect its own borders, as the West comes toward Russia. And the tripwire for using these weapons is enormous.
One other thing. Russia has about, I think, 10,000 tactical nuclear weapons, sometimes called battlefield nuclear weapons. You use these for short distances. They can be fired; you don’t need an airplane or a missile to fly them. They can be fired from artillery. But they’re nuclear. They’re radioactive. They’ve never been used. Russia has about 10,000. We have about 500. Russia’s military doctrine clearly says that if Russia is threatened by overwhelming conventional forces, we will use tactical nuclear weapons. So when Obama boasts, as he has on two occasions, that our conventional weapons are vastly superior to Russia, he’s feeding into this argument by the Russian hawks that we have to get our tactical nuclear weapons ready.
Former Polish president – and famed anti-communist activist – Lech Walesa agrees that the U.S. and Nato’s arming of Ukraine could lead to a nuclear war
Cohen also notes that the West has entered into an agreement to cover-up what happened to Malaysian airlines flight 17, because Russia was not responsible:
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But But But... We Have A PEACENIk President OB, A Liberal, A Golfer, A Nobel Peace Prize Holder... But But BuTT...
The NeoCon lunatics believe that the Americans will win this game of "Chicken" with Russia. After all, in their way of thinking, America has won every game of "Chicken" it has played, at least since 1988. The NeoCons think that surrender will ultimately prove to be be more desireable to Russia than defeat. They do not understand the meaning of "Patriotism" and national honor. They are wrong.
At some point, Russia will be faced with the same hard choice that Germany and Japan faced in 1941: either cave in or go all in, against the Soviet Union in the former's case, or The United States in Japan's case. Russia will make the same choice that these nations did, understanding at the same time that the West holds the logistical and qualitative advantages.
True. Economics andd pragmatism is not everything for everybody.
Rusians have a soul - a history - an amazing body of literature, music and art and an inspriring manifestion of Christianity. They overthrew their feudal masters.
They will defend their interests even at a cost.
Looks like even Scotland may feel the same way.
You're right, except for the part about feudalism. The peasants actually DESCENDED into feudalism after the Time of Troubles. Their movement (hence, their freedom) was restricted.
Back in medieval times, you had to pay a flat tax of 10% to the Crown, and 10% to the Church (AFAIK the Crown taxed you at the marketplace, the Church got you to 'donate' on Sunday). Of course there was also the 'blood tax', which was actually military conscription, for 10% of the boys.
Good points...may I add....Putin and the Russians are a unique cultural personality. Russians combine the depressive psychology seen in the writings of Dostoyevsky and the blood fierceness of Attila the Hun; Putin comes from a long line of Russian conquerers, empire builders, and physical expansionists.
The US, by contrast, has a cultural personality of the open-faced farm boy and the five-acres-and-a-mule is enough personality. NO Contest!
Russians from birth play chess, a game of strategy and thought and also a game of sacrifice for future gain. American's fed on food stamps and the pornification of the populace, now led by the whining "I get too little sleep" Oboma, better gear themselves up. This is the fight determining the fate of the world.
With Oboma declaring for years that the US is ceding our country to foreigners, physically via third world cesspool immigration, morally via the enshrining of genitalia in every media as a "form" of plot, and mentally via the "common core" teaching of our children, China and Russia see the opportunity to have the entire world as theirs. That is the goal and the only goal.
I like Huckabee for the next president; he's talking good and tough. And why oh why are they dog-and-ponying Mitt-the-money-whore Romney on any of the talk shows? The mormons say that doing their "voluntary" (in quotes because you are looked down upon in mormonism if you are male and don't show up to spout the policy for your two years of "missionary" work) two-years as a missionary is equivalent to serving in the military. So of his 5 creepy sons not a one has served in the military. (all mormons are creepy; if you've never lived among them you don't understand this, believe me). In fact Mormons have the lowest rate of military service of any group in the US.
>>>In fact Mormons have the lowest rate of military service of any group in the US.
Some folk would take that as evidence of good sense, and having more productive things to do.
or perhaps because they are too busy with treir 2nd wives affairs
Right...NO CONTEST...We "Dumb" farm-Boy Americans.
Transistor - Invented where? Not Russia
LASERS (CD/DVD, Fiber Optics) - Invented Where? Not Russia
Radio - Invented/Implemented Where - Not Russia
I could go on and on...Russian people are generally good...but their leaders are corrupt beyond what americans can conceive...as for a contects between American and Russian Soldiers.
Good luck with that one my friend...we had AMERICAN boots on the ground in 'Nam...we slaughters 10-20X as many enemy as we lost...Russia funded the Viet-Cong...but were too PUSSY to set actual boot on ground...and there was a damned good reason.
Nam was NOT lost due to military plight, it was "lost" because of communist sympathiser media pundits thorwing the US under the bus, then coming back home to make money in the same EVIL empire. It was a phycological loss.
and i doubt YOU would have the smarts to invent any of listed electronics-what a dork!
You write like you took too much LSD in college-youre delusional and aging with dementia
If Nam was a psychological loss, why was Afpakiraq lost? Not enough anti-psychotic meds?
First Satellite?
First man in space?
Who landed a robot on the moon?
NASA embarked on a quest to develop a pen capable of writing in zero gravity, upside down, or underwater. After spending $40m, they announced... the SpacePen.
Russians used a pencil.
This truth is scary as fuck. Let's just hope they can hold out long enough for the dollar to collapse rendering the US MiC worthless before we all get vaporized.
Well, look at it this way. At least we won't have to be concerned with Ebola.
A couple of well-aimed small yield tactical nuke air bursts would fry most of any attackers fancy electronics rendering those weapons useless.
Succinct, but ominous article; thanks, George.
“I would say that historians one day will look back and say that America has blood on its hands.”
An incredibly “politically correct” understatement – right up there with Obummer's “we tortured some folks” and an alleged preponderance of American society being “ok” with a SWAT team dropping incendiaries into a baby's crib – at the wrong house.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2014/05/baby-in-coma-after-police-...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/20/county-wont-pay-toddler-grenade...
America has decayed into one seriously incompetent, sick and twisted society. A reasonable person can not not blame anyone for joining ISIS – at least they appear to have competent leadership and are fighting for what they believe in.
What does America apparently believe in? Torture, murdering suspects, government thuggery, indefinite “detention”, offensive warmongering, international meddling, economic malfeasance, propaganda, lies and cover-ups, etc… all wrapped in the ever forgiving, warm and fuzzy box of “political correctness”.
Might be time for each of us to ask ourselves, “What do I believe in?”
The American style of "Freedom and Democracy" of course. /sarc
I learned what America really believed in, during my tour in Vietnam. Today my sense is that many Americans are too terrified, apathetic, distracted, and drugged to believe in anything, and those that do believe in something, believe in crap.
Maybe Dana Delaney has a daughter to star in the hit new TV show Siberia Beach. Let the Mission Accomplishing begin - onward to Moscvetnam!
"Thirdly, and most importantly, Ukraine is linked to Russia not only in terms of being Russia’s essential security zone, but it’s linked conjugally, so to speak, intermarriage. There are millions, if not tens of millions, of Russian and Ukrainians married together. Put it in NATO, and you’re going to put a barricade through millions of families. Russia will react militarily."...
I'll take that "Berlin Wall" through Ukraine and raise you an ABM "offensive shield" to protect you from an "Iranian missile" attack!...
Who's guilty of raising an "Iron Curtain" now?!!!
NATO needs to increase the PR campaign for this before the door on Mariupol closes for good like Crimea.
Get white poster(s) that say "NATO incluson or We Die"! and have Porko, Yats, and Tymo hold them up in front of NATO headquarters with a collection bucket?!!!
Cohen has always been an apologist. EVERYBODY loses in a nuclear war. Even Putin if the U.S. Air Force sends a nuke into the men's room at the Kremlin. Ukraine isn't worth fighting a nuclear war over; any sane person can understand that.
That's not the issue. The US needs to be humbled and contained. The east is making its stand.
this ain't about Ukraine, its a important step closer to a bigger prize, and we don't know if the escalation is already plan to start.
It's not a matter of starting that way, it's a matter of escalation.
Unlike the Cold War, NATO has strategic depth. However, also unlike the Cold War, the NATO armies are equipped and trained to fight guerrilla forces, not nation-state forces that can put up a real fight and have strategic depth of their own. The psychological aspects of the conflict from the soldier perspective will be horrific. We are upset about supposedly less than 10,000 KIA from the AfPak conflict, which has lasted what - 12 years? Now imagine a war where you lose that in an HOUR.
Escalation to battlefield nuclear weapons and beyond can occur very rapidly under these circumstances.
And just for old times' sake...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFFOUkipI4U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuUBCF3KKxc
"The psychological aspects of the conflict from the soldier perspective will be horrific."
Amen, bro! Berlin Brigade 1970.
Damn, you were there? I remember the games - longest the forces lasted was about 1 week. Gave folks on duty there a real feeling of love and security - NOT.
You got my respect, sir.
REFORGER!
Sanity seems to be in short supply right now.
The problem is if we keep going like this we will may lose the brain function all together.
Wars and rumors of wars
"For then there will be a great tribulation, such as has not occurred since the beginning of the world until now, nor ever will. Unless those days had been cut short, no life would have been saved..." Olivet sermon, circa 30
welll lets see if russia prevails and biblical propechy is correct, they do need to try and invade israel (unless israel means anyone allied with israel) shrug
i could be wrong on biblical intepretation though
Ersatz Israel?
Don't let the use of a name confuse you - the map is not the territory, friend.
Matthew 24:7 King James Bible, Olivet Discourse as it is called with Jesus speaking.
"For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places."
This refers to not only countries against other countries, but also civil wars within countries. Here we have both in the Ukraine, Syria, Libya and most likely soon in the US. If the US begins fighting amoung themselves, you think the rest of the world will not pile on?
How about famines and pestilences or diseases? Earthquakes? Judgement has begun, but nobody has seen nothing yet.
Poland is going to be made an example of by Putin.It is the tip of the NATO spear controlled by Fascists (USA favorite people) with Tusk now in Brussels and his people still firmly in charge back home, they will not know when to stop.
between the US weapons, US bases, border and an economy dependent on russian gas and 30% of their trade they will get squeezed from every angle
They spend $2 billion on Military - 2% of GDP - but the US can fund 100% from phony financing, base rentals etc
the country is toast in a conflict - Dresden 1944!
Poland started/provoked WWII by refusing Hitler's request that Ostpreussen, Silesien and other German speaking territories be given reasonable local autonomy under Polish rule. Negotiations lasted for months while Poland was encouraged to refuse all offers due to its alliances with Britain, U.S. and France, alliances provoked by the need to get autarchic Germany under the sway of the international bankers.
In my view the only way for Russia to deter war is to explicitly target London, Frankfurt, New York, and Chateau Lafitte-Rothschild in France for the very first nuclear response. Russia needs to make crystal clear who will die first if war with NATO breaks out. After all, the bankers and Poland deliberately started WWII resulting in 30 to 40 million deaths. It is quite clear that they do not care how many peasants die as long as banker feeding rights over the entire world remain intact.
LOL.
And the Mohawks started the Indian Extermination Campaigns by not ceding their ancestral hunting grounds for European agrarian expansion.
Hitler was an evil fuck bent on world domination and autonomy claims were an excuse to light the fuse.
world domination, no.
evil fuck - sure. But Hitler wasn't the "Hitler" of Hollywood, while Stalin and Mao killed far, far more people - generally simply to kill them. From a certain standpoint - wanting to unite Germans was not in and of itself evil or megalomaniacal.
The devil is in the details, of course.
and I hold that Hitler invaded Russia because he anticipated a Russian invasion and also imagined himself a defender of "Europe" from, of course, 'Jewish Bolshevism' - but however you slice it the Bolshevik Empire was an evil, and truly megalomaniacal one.
The Nazis would very likely have attacked Russia/Ukraine at some point, but Hitler did seek Poland as an allied state to join in any war in the East - the same sort of deal that Romania and others ultimately accepted.
"Hitler was an evil fuck bent on world domination and autonomy claims were an excuse to light the fuse."
Absolute nonsense!!
Hitler was absolutely determined to expand the Reich to include all German speaking lands rather than leave irredent Germans as minorities to be exploited in surrounding countries. He had extensive negotiations with Poland over what in past centuries had been German lands with German speaking people. Hitler abandoned demands that Poland cede sovereignty over German speaking lands, and began negotiations over degrees of autonomy for those regions but Britain and France encouraged Poland to refuse all offers. Once he invaded Poland and captured the German speaking lands, declarations of war from France, Britain and Russia compelled attacks against those countries and their allies as a matter of self defense. He never had any notion of conquering the world.
It appears that multi-culturalism as a means of elite control has been around for centuries, none of which would have been visible or understood by the average Pole at the time. Ethnic voting blocks and low intensity conflict within one's borders (which we now have in the U.S.) is an easy way to deflect attention away from the activities and motivations of elites, and, of course, Hitler was opposed to multiculturalism, at least as it pertained to German speaking peoples of Europe.
I find it hard to believe that Allied propaganda and obvious lies about WWII (and Germany) still have currency. As a son of the British Empire, with not a shred of German ancestry, I am saddened by the persistence of elite lies, diversions an misdirection from their real political aims and interests, and the ease with which they can incite the population to sacrifice their lives for utterly false and fabricated reasons.
always take Jewish versions of history with a grain of salt
So, with the Sudetenland "buffer" secured (and "his people" safe) in 1938 and that limp wristed ninny Chamberlain proclaiming "peace in our time!" Hitler figured, oh what the hell, might as well take all of Czechoslovakia, right?
Revisionist bullshit.
That propaganda is the prime method that the elites use to keep the livestock in their respective corrals.
You are correct, of course, about Hitler and Poland, England and France.
http://www.iamthewitness.com/books/Archibald.Maule.Ramsay/The.Nameless.W...
There are so many flipp'n idiots on this site it's breath taking. If you want to make out Hitler as a good guy, be my guest, but you are siding with unmitigated evil.
"If you want to make out Hitler as a good guy, be my guest,"
I am not making him out to be a good guy, but it would be a nice prophylactic against further murderous wars if we could learn to shed the 70 year old propaganda about WWII and recognize that most of what Hitler did was normal statecraft for someone wanting to liberate all Germans from the oppression of the Versaille treaty.
He was no better or no worse than most charismatic leaders. However, as a working class lad, never having mixed with the elites, he did not have any means of understanding their true agenda or power, and thus because part of his agenda was revenge for the Versaille Treaty, he seriously miscalculated. The question then becomes why the heavy investment in perpetuating this myth of Hitler's unspeakable evil at ever increasing decibel levels for 70 years. He was far less evil than Lenin (who's henchmen ran the Lubyanka prison murder machine as well as the murderous gulag, the millions of victims of which are never celebrated) and Stalin and many others. Who benefits from this heavy investment? Qui Bono??
And precisely why is Germany still and occupied country?? Qui Bono??
"The question then becomes why the heavy investment in perpetuating this myth of Hitler's unspeakable evil at ever increasing decibel levels for 70 years."
Because it was unspeakable, orderly, machine-like, the death of humans.
"He was far less evil than Lenin (who's henchmen ran the Lubyanka prison murder machine as well as the murderous gulag, the millions of victims of which are never celebrated) and Stalin and many others."
No one "celebrates" the victims, they remember them and evil is evil, whether one victim of it or millions.
"Who benefits from this heavy investment?"
Speaking for myself (and myself only) we all do by understanding what nationalistic zeal combined with "laws" thus created can bring to all of us. You do realize Hitler & Lenin & Stalin are products of the left (commonly defined with Marx) don't you?
"We are socialists, we are enemies of today's capitalistic economic system for the exploitation of the economically weak, with its unfair salaries, with its unseemly evaluation of a human being according to wealth and property instead of responsibility and performance, and we are all determined to destroy this system under all conditions." --Adolf Hitler...May 1, 1927.
http://constitutionalistnc.tripod.com/hitler-leftist/
But was he not, in fact, (as we say now) the first crony-socialist?
25. To put the whole of this programme into effect, we demand the creation of a strong central state power for the Reich; the unconditional authority of the political central Parliament over the entire Reich and its organizations; and the formation of Corporations (edit: lol) based on estate and occupation for the purpose of carrying out the general legislation passed by the Reich in the various German states."
But he knew of course, he could kill anyone "legally" and seize that estate or business once he became dictator, for da fadderland, of course ;-)
"You do realize Hitler & Lenin & Stalin are products of the left (commonly defined with Marx) don't you?"
And Roosevelt was not? Get fucking real for a change! This was not a conflict between "The Right" and "The Left" or the Democrats and the Republicans or similar made-up enemies.
The Great War, i.e. WW1 and WW2 -- they were both part of the same conflict, was a war for global domination. The Real Winners are yet to be determined, although a certain tribe that must not be mentioned appear to be in front.
Thats gotta be the weakest defense of socialism I've ever seen. WWII was in fact fought over two different versions of Marxism, communism vs national socialism, two brothers, different mothers, same father. And neither government paid much attention to how many distant cousins were murdered.
Versailles as onerous (or unfair, however Hitler apologists choose to look at it) was still just an excuse for Hitler to point to a boogeyman to further his own goals, which was an authoritarian state with him and his cronies at the top via law.
FDR had much the same idea's, you might remember his attempt to pack the Supreme Court with his cronies if you didn't have your head stuck so far up your ass.
"Thats gotta be the weakest defense of socialism I've ever seen."
You're claiming FDR wasn't a socialist? And how am I defending socialism? Socialism is a Zionist invention. You're the Zionist defender here, not me.
There seems little doubt that Elite Zionist interests were at the command level on BOTH sides of the Great War pulling the strings of their puppets, Hitler, Churchill, FDR, and Stalin being some of the notable puppets. And the Zionist won! And the Rotschilds became the planet's resident trillionaires! Imagine that!
Socialism is wonderful, (if you're a Zionist).
"You're claiming FDR wasn't a socialist?"
No, I thought I was pretty clear, he absolutely was a socialist.
"Socialism is a Zionist invention."
Frederich Engels was not Jewish (it was he who financed Marx, Marx being a fucking bum, if you will remember and this is the second time I've had to straighten you out on historical fact) and neither was Stalin or Mao or Pol Pot or Hugo Chavez or Castro or Che Guevara for that matter.
"You're the Zionist defender here, not me."
If pointing out Hitler was a socialist with murderous nationalistic ambitions I stand before you and everyone else on ZH, guilty as charged.
Unlike you and Tony Wilson and all the rest of these fucking nutcases around here, I don't see a Jew or a black or a chinaman etc. hiding under everyones bed and I have no problem pointing out who is actually hiding under there.