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Scottish "No" Poll Sends Nasdaq Green On Week
Today's v-shaped recovery in US equities was brought to you by the number 107 (USDJPY target) and the words "Scottish poll" which showed a majority of "no"s this afternoon. Early weakness in stocks (but not in Treasuries) reversed almost perfectly as Europe closed and JPY started to ramp towards the next logical stop run at 107.00. Nasdaq led the way (as AAPLites swept back in) and pushed into the green for the week (while the rest are still red). Treasury yields rose on the day, led by the long-end (30Y +3bps) stalling some of yesterday's flattening (5Y +9bps on the week). GBP rallied notably after the "no" poll which kept pressure on the USD (closing practically unch on the day). Gold, silver, and oil slipped lower as US woke up then stabilized. Credit spreads compressed on the day but not as exuberantly as stocks even as VIX dropped back under 13 again. For the 2nd day in a row, the S&P 500 closed below 2,000 - turmoil?
So NOT Panic...
Suddenly, iClocks are all the rage - though note that AAPL was unable to hold above the iPhone 6 "news" level..
But it's JPY selling that drives the market remember...
Nasdaq managed to scramble back to green on the week...
As a positive Scottish poll appears to have been just enough catalyst to spark momentum this afternoon - and high beta followed... (notice Trannies diverged notably into the close)
From last week's dismal jobs data print, it is the JPY-linked Nikkei that has exploded higher...
Convergence complete...
Rates rose on the day, led by long-end weakness which offsets some of yesterday's notable flattening...
FX markets were dominated by JPY weakness (pressing to 107) and GBP strength (over 1.62) as the "no" poll hit...
PMs and Oil slipped lower into the 8amET witching hour then stabilized...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Who knew what when?
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It's not who votes who matters, but who counts the votes.
Or the size of your Scottish Pole...
Rigged polls to manipulate the masses.
Winning!
Polling is a perfect science. There is no greater force than public opinion polls and as the world is more informed and connected by technology we can expect peace and prosperity to ensue.
I've gone long the Groat and I recommend you straddle Cameron.
So know it's the Scots independence vote that the markets hinge on???
Because an independent Scotland does what again to the trillions of fake dollars sloshing around the planet????
So the western stock markets are projecting that independence is bad and no independence is good for us all!!!!
Geezus we are down the fucking wormhole here, the even more hilarious thing is, "the Scots" have purported to want freedom and independence from England for a 1000 fucking years, but next week they can have it, but a majority doesn't want it actually?? Are you serious, ill bet that vote is 65/35 for independence when it's all counted!! Just my prediction!
The reversion to nationalism is a staging post on the way back to living communities
Ed Miliband tweeted two hours ago to say ‘On the #indyref campaign trail today with the simple message: stay with us.’ He being a Suprastateist Socialist, it is highly significant that the Labour leader made a plea completely devoid of the one thing Scottish waverers would most like to know about voting No: why?
The Big State social democratic Left has always used communication in this way: pleas bordering on commands, with an enormous act of faith required to give any credence to the message. It produced slogans like ‘Keep Calm & Carry On’, ‘You know it makes sense’, and ‘I’m backing Britain’…but they all beg the same question: why?
All the Cameron/Miliband/Clegg trio can see is the need for immediate-term damage limitation. Such is the reaction of those who never grasp the payback of a longer-term view. And yet – even more depressing – there isn’t a glimmer anywhere in the UK Überbau right now of any insight asking “I wonder what’s really going on here?”
In the last 97 years, we have seen the formation of two suprastates, the collapse of a former global colonial power, and then collapse and distress in thosee suprastates. I refer time-respectively to the Soviet Union, the British Empire, the Soviet Union again – and now, the European Union.
When the British Empire dissolved itself after the Second World War, initial member delight at being free morphed rapidly into a deconstruction of the unreal entities created by the colonial power: India, Nigeria, and so on.
When the USSR collapsed, initial delight at being free morphed rapidly into a deconstruction of the unreal vassals nurtured by the Communists: Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and so on.
Now that the artificially joined United Kingdom’s collapse has spread from 1916 Eire to 2014 Caledonia, initial Scottish delight at being free will – I do not doubt – morph into the emergence of Cornwallian and Welsh claims….if the Welsh can successfully withdraw from their dependence culture.
And when the ramifications of a fascist Brussels, a crooked Frankfurt, globalist fanaticism and an egomaniacal Berlin finally sit too heavily one day on the three-legged chair called the European Union, its members too will rediscover the divisions within: Belgium, Spain, and so on.
But the trouble with short-term historical events is that (a) they don’t happen in an ordered way to neatly mirror a long-term change, and (b) the leaders living through them – almost without exception – simply do not grasp WTF is going on. In such a context of unenvisaged change, those In Power jerk at the knee in order to protect the power they had hitherto imagined to be unassailable.
None of this has been made any easier by the emergence of an aggressive but anxious China, the post-USSR mafia-anarchy of Putin’s energy-obsessive Russia, the newly declining American energy-fixated commercial Empire, an AIDS-riddled Africa, and the rise of two religious throwbacks: one travelling chaotically under the title of Islamic Jihadism, and the other trading insidiously under the utterly false flag of capitalist neoliberalism.
But like the ill-fated Martin Luther King (albeit on a comparatively minute and obscenely privileged scale) I do have a dream. A hope that, in the fullness of time, all these tributaries of history will give way to a raging river of reaction: that is, the return of Homo sapiens to manageable pack sizes – and the realisation that family and community are respectively the building blocks and mortar of tranquil fulfilment and material progress.
I think that what we’re seeing at the moment is the second stage of an anti-globalist reaction…ironically made possible by the arrival of that very internet most people see as the secret agent of a horrible New World Order. For the internet makes it possible for a community in Hungary to seek out and give mutual satisfaction to a community in Dorset, Ohio, Queensland, Ossetia or the Yucatan peninsular.
The Bigwigs in Whitehall wish to present the #indyref in Scotland as a potential Sword of Damocles. It certainly does have two incredibly sharp edges: but it is no more than the kitchen knife inadvertantly cutting a finger in the preparation of truly sustaining (and sustainable) meals.
We have been sold political, economic, social, cultural and constitutional garbage for some 50 years. Whatever the Scots do in the end, their desire to go it alone is a symptom of change…and very probably, a catalyst for more of it.
Extreme nationalism and it's eventual failures are what's required to promote globalism as a rational alternative.
Action. Reaction. Solution.
I wholeheartedly agree with this premise entirely, word for word!
Nicely put!
If a majority of Scots vote "no", they'll be the laughing stock of the entire planet.
The net cash flow is from the rest of the UK into Scotland not the other way around. So all the emotions aside, Scotland will suffer more by becoming independent than staying in the UK. At least in the short to medium term. There is a very real and material reason to vote against independence.
So... Scotland is where money goes to die?
If there is a net cash flow into Scotland, then over a fairly short period of a few years, a decade at most, most of the money would be in Scotland. Or do you not understand how that works? If more money always goes into Scotland than comes out, eventually it will all be in Scotland. Pretty quickly Scotland would be much richer than the rest of the UK, experiencing high levels of inflation in housing and so on. That's clear from what you said ... Please, think about what you're saying before opening your mouth. Or put another way. There cannot be a net cashflow into Scotland.
The only areas of the UK which can be described as having evidence of a net cash inflow is the southeast of England and specifically, The City of London. That is where money goes to die.
The whole of the UK would benefit from dropping The City into the Thames.
Ok, let me rephrase that, the net flow of subsidies and government benefits to the Scotland is more than what they contribute to the UK economy. At least that was the situation ca. 1993-98 when I was living in the UK.
So now public sector money goes in... but less comes back out...
Oh well that's just exactly the same statement again, but this time you also said that Scotland has NO private sector at all. Zero. I just asked you to think about what you're saying. Do you have any idea at all what you're talking about? Where do you get this crap? Some politician? Labour? Tory? Someone who can't count? Someone with an agenda?
I don't personally subscribe to Hanlon's Razor. When I see something which could be attributed to either rank stupidity or malice, I ask myself "who benefits and how?".
Scotland has oil. They can adopt bitcoin as currency. They should vote yes.
"So the western stock markets are projecting that independence is bad and no independence is good for us all!!!!"
Yep. Complete PINKO COMMIE FASCISTS BASTARDS buying stocks & bonds. They now run the planet.
Unfortunately, when they are finally brought to JUSTICE the rivers will run red with blood......
This poll cooked for you by Motivated Survey Monkeys
<---------Actual "No" Votes
<---------Bullshit survey that literally say anything you want them to say..AKA all surveys
Charts, polls, graphs. Whatever. All one needs to knowi s one word:
Bullish.
So that means Diebold was counting this one?
Today had nothing to do with a worthless poll in Scotland. It's all about futures expiring next Friday...they do this every 3 months for the two weeks before futures expiry. Up, down, up, down and settle right in the middle so everyone gets fucked. Yellen could have announced a rate hike today and we were going up. The stock market has become the derivative of the derivatives.
The other question to ask is how many Yen is the BOJ going to have to print to convert into S&P Futures to keep this turd afloat after next Friday?
But then you'd have to admit it's a rigged casino and you're the fish. The pit bosses are reaching to find a 'fundamental' reason to explain the blatant, in your face, 24/7 rigged theft that occurs in the paper 'markets'.
Braveheart is responsible.
lets just make a new club and do it right!
I assume we ALL know that both Scotland and Wales have been functionally independent for a long time (each have their own Parliament / Assembly, each set their own laws).
It might be a benefit for England to lose both of these "self-govening entities" - remembering the disastrous "Blair Brown Partnership". It's not just the Scots who want "independence" - many English wouldn't be exactly sorry to see them have to face an un-subsidised reality.
They have some sham show organizations but they are milked dry by the fed and their long straws on the thames.
Scotch on the Rocks, please
You realise that Scotland is maybe 5 million people... Out of a population of 63 million for the whole UK. Compared to a US population of 300 million people.
Overreacting much?
216 billion GDP to 5 million people... Scotland would top Switzerland, Canada or any of the Scandinavian countrys in standard of living.
Look at that Japanese Nikkei shite go ! what was their GDP -7.1% now pushing fucking 16000 !!! LOL
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.110033387
the yes vote has drifted significantly on the kitchen sink effort today. explains the rally in cable
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.110033387
the yes vote has drifted significantly on the kitchen sink effort today. explains the rally in cable
Don't panic. Keep grazing. And carry a towel.
Earth is not being wiped out to make way for a Super-galactic highway. Unless there's a sign of that posted at City Hall. Only 42% are for Independence.
Was the poll conducted by Yellen?
This is garbage. Wall St has no interest in a Scots vote. Just finding a headline to match every minor fluctuation in markets is not analysis!
Shouldn't it be called the "Rothschild Banksters' Scottish Independence Decision?!"
An American, not US subject.
Ahh, tremors on the economic seismographs of doom… Waiting for the actual earthquake.
Let's hope they use paper ballots in Scotland.
Amen. I was going to point out that if they're using the same votinig machines as we have here in America then the British have nothing to worry about but you beat me to it.
Cheers