20% Chance Of Ebola In USA By October; 277,124 Global Cases By Year-End, Model Predicts

Tyler Durden's picture

"There's nothing to be optimistic about," warns the professor who developed the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to assess outbreaks, "if the number of cases increases and we are not able to start taming the epidemic, then it will be too late. And then it requires an effort that will be impossible to bring on the ground." As FredHutch reports, the deadly Ebola epidemic raging across West Africa will likely get far worse before it gets better, more than doubling the number of known cases by the end of this month, predicting as many as 10,000 cases of Ebola virus disease could be detected by Sept. 24 – and thousands more after that. “The cat’s already out of the box – way, way out," as the analysis of global mobility and epidemic patterns shows a rougly 25% chance of Ebola detection in the UK by the end of September and 18% it will turn up in the USA. "I hope to be wrong, he concludes, but "the data points are still aligned with the worst-case scenario."

 

Via FredHutch,

The next three weeks will be crucial to determining whether the Ebola outbreak is tamed or rages out of control, the experts agreed.

 

...

 

WHO officials have predicted as many as 20,000 cases of Ebola and laid out a “road map” for the outbreak response that calls for stopping the outbreak within six to nine months. But that’s only if a “massive” global response is implemented.

 

The scenario modeled in the new paper suggests that the actual number of cases could far exceed the WHO estimate – and far sooner. Vespignani said he and his colleagues are calibrating the model every couple of weeks to see whether there’s any change. So far, the answer is no.

 

“The data points are still aligned with the worst-case scenario,” Vespignani said. “It’s a bad feeling. I hope to be wrong.”

 

That’s a sentiment echoed by Longini, who said that he and other disease modelers are dismayed by what they see.

 

“There’s nothing to be optimistic about,” he said. “It’s frustrating. It feels like there should be a more concentrated international effort to help these countries.”

The latest counts Monday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which include WHO and Ministry of Health reports, put the total at 4,061 cases and 2,107 deaths.

The deadly Ebola epidemic raging across West Africa will likely get far worse before it gets better, more than doubling the number of known cases by the end of this month.

 

That’s the word from disease modelers at Northeastern University and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, who predict as many as 10,000 cases of Ebola virus disease could be detected by Sept. 24 – and thousands more after that.

 

“The epidemic just continues to spread without any end in sight,” said Dr. Ira Longini, a biostatistician at the the University of Florida and an affiliated member of Fred Hutch’s Vaccine and Infectious Disease and Public Health Sciences divisions. “The cat’s already out of the box – way, way out.”

 

It’s only a matter of time, they add, before the virus could start spreading to other places, including previously unaffected countries in Africa and developed nations like the United Kingdom -- and the U.S., according to a paper published Sept. 2 in the journal PLOS Currents Outbreaks.

 

There’s a roughly 25 percent chance Ebola will be detected in the United Kingdom– and as much as an 18 percent chance it will turn up in the U.S. – by the end of September, the analysis of global mobility and epidemic patterns shows. The new paper includes the top 16 countries where Ebola is most likely to spread.

 

Though concerning, a spread to Western nations is not the biggest threat. At most, there would be a cluster of a few cases imported to the U.S., probably through air travel.

 

...

 

“We are at a crucial point,” Vespiginani said. “If the number of cases increases and we are not able to start taming the epidemic, then it will be too late. And then it requires an effort that will be impossible to bring on the ground.”

*  *  *
As we noted previously, this is anything but "contained"

*  *  *

As another epidemiolgist (and federal advisor) - Dr. Michael T. Osterholm of the University of Minnesotta - warns:

I’ve spent enough time around public health people, in the US and in the field, to understand that they prefer to express themselves conservatively. So when they indulge in apocalyptic language, it is unusual, and notable.

 

When one of the most senior disease detectives in the US begins talking about “plague,” knowing how emotive that word can be, and another suggests calling out the military, it is time to start paying attention.

There are two possible future chapters to this story that should keep us up at night.

The first possibility is that the Ebola virus spreads from West Africa to megacities in other regions of the developing world. This outbreak is very different from the 19 that have occurred in Africa over the past 40 years. It is much easier to control Ebola infections in isolated villages. But there has been a 300 percent increase in Africa’s population over the last four decades, much of it in large city slums…

 

The second possibility is one that virologists are loath to discuss openly but are definitely considering in private: that an Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air… viruses like Ebola are notoriously sloppy in replicating, meaning the virus entering one person may be genetically different from the virus entering the next. The current Ebola virus’s hyper-evolution is unprecedented; there has been more human-to-human transmission in the past four months than most likely occurred in the last 500 to 1,000 years. Each new infection represents trillions of throws of the genetic dice.

And finally, as Wired reports, the professor extrapolates:

In a worst-case hypothetical scenario, should the outbreak continue with recent trends, the case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.

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Sudden Debt's picture

I have the flue right now...
If you want to see a scary pic I'll send you a selfie...

I wonder why they never wasted 400 million dollar to cure me....

I PAY TAXES YOU BASTARDS!!!!
WHERE'S MY CURE!!!
WHERE'S MY HASMAT SUIT?!?!?

I'm so buying a monkey, get it sick and send it to the city to do my shopping...

WELL SEE WHO WILL BE LAUGHING THAN!!!!

Dave Thomas's picture

Sudden Debt, eat a few pounds of plastique, then hanglide over city of London at lunchtime!

Dr Strangemember's picture

So you're saying Al Gore supports Ebola given the results help us use fewer resources and thus less carbon release?   

Headbanger's picture

Yeah!

Al gore INVENTED Ebola!

 

BTW:  Lack of Vitamin C is a known factor for Ebola mortality.

Sudden Debt's picture

HEY!!
SPEAK FOR YOURSELF!!!
I RECYCLE!!

Overflow-admin's picture

If you don't like the shape, fix it with log scale.

Silky Johnson's picture

Easy fix, lock those shitholes down, no in or out for a year. All the ebolites will burn out by then. What's the problem?

knukles's picture

None
Cordon Sanitaire
Time tested, mom approved, Mikey likes it.

Alea Iactaest's picture

Right. Coming to your neighborhood soon. Of course, if West Point is any kind of example it is a perfect example of how not to run a quarantine. In which case, if properly run, you will find yourself a bit short on food and other supplies. Plus, good luck making it to work. Which means paying your bills may be a little tough. So if you like your heat and your lights you're probably going to get a bit creative about that cordon sanitaire.

knukles's picture

Be one hell of a great excuse for the Street to cut a couple quarters GDP estimates!

Alea Iactaest's picture

Well, for about $0.32 you could always:

 

+ SPY150320P0015000

- SPY150320P0014000

 

Renewable Life's picture

Never will you be happier you have physical assets in your hands, then the day Americans realize they are not invincible and bad things happen to them too!!

Magnix's picture

@.inf.capt - you will be one of them.

knukles's picture

Oh, my friend, it was only 30K last time.  And was pegged at 18% to come to our shores.
I'll take the 30K and over on domestic deaths and the over on the 20%

The Eugenicists dream

NoDebt's picture

Well, then obviously it must be getting worse if scientists keep making more and more dire predictions.  They're always right about this stuff.

I think this strain of Ebola was made by the CIA, like they created ISIS.  Only top level government officials have been innoculated.

And global warming is real.

Lost Word's picture

Innoculated ?

Vaccinated ?

RmcAZ's picture

It's most likely already getting to the point where authorities are unable to count affected victims or prove that the sick even have Ebola, as it takes a considerable amount of time to even test for it. This will only get worse as time progresses, and we may not know the true impact. The next 3 weeks will be crucial for the fudging of official numbers.

Alea Iactaest's picture

Count? We don't need no stinking count!

I've been tracking the data on healthmap.org/ebola (and other soures) and their reported infection and death counts haven't changed in a week, suggesting the truth is a bit "delicate".

 

Overflow-admin's picture

It depends if you consider the evolution of data and try to build a growth model (like in Abenomics), then you get something like 30,000 by year's end - my personal forecast stands at 42'851 cases and 18'471 deaths (based on probable+confirmed cases): https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx7I-MzAy7p5Smx6TnBGZjhXeFU/edit?usp=sh...

 

If you try to build a behavioural model of infection, I bet it gets much worse if big cities are hit. 277k cases doesn't fit the current trend, but what do we know of it, really?

armageddon addahere's picture

Cure for Ebola (and a lot of other diseases) Bob Beck Protocol.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkiX0jJJozk

No, I am not kidding. I use the devices and have not had so much as a cold since I started.

Dr_Dazed's picture

The way I read the Wired article the worried comment:

I’ve spent enough time around public health people, in the US and in the field, to understand that they prefer to express themselves conservatively. So when they indulge in apocalyptic language, it is unusual, and notable.

When one of the most senior disease detectives in the US begins talking about “plague,” knowing how emotive that word can be, and another suggests calling out the military, it is time to start paying attention."

Was the  author of that article,  , and not Dr. Osterholm.

Dr_Dazed's picture

The way I read the Wired article the worried comment:

I’ve spent enough time around public health people, in the US and in the field, to understand that they prefer to express themselves conservatively. So when they indulge in apocalyptic language, it is unusual, and notable.

When one of the most senior disease detectives in the US begins talking about “plague,” knowing how emotive that word can be, and another suggests calling out the military, it is time to start paying attention."

Was the  author of that article,  , and not Dr. Osterholm.

batushka's picture

Don't worry.  The vaccine will be available when the crisis comes to America and other western nations.  It will come with a mandatory RFID chip to monitor our condition.

knukles's picture

Yes!  My daily dose of Ebola porn!
Stoke that fucking fear.  Make like it's the End of the World. 
Call for massive efforts
Need funding
Raise taxes
Slowly realize so this is why FEMA has all those plastic coffins and the other mugs, billions of rounds of hollow points.
Get panicky without scaring the population.
Just enough panicky to curtail freedoms further.
Just enough , it it gets further out of control, to declare martial law.
Stay indoors, folks.
Nope, no stores open
The water might have Marburg in it.
Stay feared.
And now we all undrstand why those "underground bases" were built

thamnosma's picture

Indeed, it's important to keep this outbreak in perspective.  Nevertheless, this one definitely has legs and I can certainly imagine such a virus to hit a "take off" point in overpopulated teeming third world cities.   Just seems like something waiting to happen, though I am not personally fearful at all, yet.

kliguy38's picture

this little baby has a higher chance than 20% of landing here before November and fortunately its mortality rate is not nearly as high as 50%....but it will kill about 20% mostly very young, old and weak like most viral pandemics. The problem with this one is they DO HAVE a vaccine since THEY engineered the virus, but they won't roll it out if the spread is too fast. My guess is they do get it rolled out before the panic goes full bore and NO ONE shows up at Wally World to stock the shelves.

thamnosma's picture

I thought the current strain has a 40-50% kill ratio and doesn't appear to be taking out the young and old like those flu pandemics do.  Ah, what the hell do I know....

kliguy38's picture

don't believe everything they're telling you. Its biggest effect will be respiratory and that will be the hardest on the groups mentioned.. basically its a bad fochin virus that makes you sicker than shit. but you can survive it.

Alea Iactaest's picture

Once you adjust sample size for time and this round of Ebola is sticking to the time-tested 80% mortality rate.

The problem is that the rate of increasing infections is so high that the mortality rate is lagging. This creates a bit of a math problem as the deaths catch up to the infections.

For more info about Estimating the Fatality Rate check out this link:
http://www.healthmap.org/site/diseasedaily/article/estimating-fatality-2...

The author is a systems engineer and MIT PhD. Pretty sharp and more good info on her site here:
http://maimunamajumder.wordpress.com/

 

thamnosma's picture

Thank you for some real info.

Lost Word's picture

Not only the young and old?

Not Too Important's picture

The cure is monoclonal antibodies from whole blood, for passive immunization.

Translated, that's harvesting young survivors without other blood disorders.

You've been here long enough, you can finish the rest.

Al Huxley's picture

The trend is geometric, but it if you do the math (and I read an article that confirms) it's still only around 1.7 new infections/case.  Eg for everybody infected with Ebola, they're passing it on to < 2 people.  Mathematically still a problem, but if you look at the abysmal conditions where this is happening, that says to me that it really isn't THAT transmissible (otherwise I'd expect a transmission rate of 10 or 50 or 100 given the conditions in west Africa - infected people touring the Liberian countryside in taxis looking for medical care - how is that not causing a massive increase in cases?). 

 

So absent some mutation that makes it a lot more transmissible, it seems to me there's a good chance it's going to be a horrible problem for west Africa for a while, but probably not a global problem.

thamnosma's picture

Seems right though clearly the virus has mutated to an extent that the current outbreak is very different than previous ones, all of those burning out quickly.   I'd call this one a "mid danger level" strain.  High level danger will be full airborne capability.  Now THAT can start taking out the world's overpopulated shitholes.

Alea Iactaest's picture

Interesting interview with Dr. C.J. Peters, the original "virus hunter" and real life virologist that Dustin Hoffman's character was based on:
http://www.pathogenperspectives.com/2014/09/ebola-q-with-dr-cj-peters-wh...

 

Q: Is this Ebola epidemic a threat to humanity?

A: No. It may very well decimate Africa. Africa is in real trouble, but it is not a threat to humanity and it won't cause a pandemic.

 

EDIT: When an event affects 1 out of 100 there is an experience rate of 1%, unless you are that 1 case at which point your experience rate is 100%. So maybe the severity of the threat depends a bit on where you happen to be...

thamnosma's picture

He may be right concerning this current strain....again, it's all about the mode of transmission.

Not Too Important's picture

The Doctor's right. It'll stop at the border, and not cross it.

He's busy protecting his paycheck right now, and trying to avoid nailguns.

The Japanese are killing off newspeople that talk about Fukushima too much:

“Very Frightening”: Journalist on popular Japan news program found dead — Only person reporting about Fukushima on national TV — Chilling recent quote: “I want you to know I will never commit suicide” — No news coverage of death, no obituary, ‘strange’ nuclear message shown on air"

http://enenews.com/very-frightening-journalist-very-popular-japan-news-p...

August's picture

>>>It may very well decimate Africa.

Finally, someone uses the word "decimate" correctly.

There is a God.

Whoa Dammit's picture

Look at the CDC Advisory for EV-D68, the respiratory virus that is now infecting children here in the US. Think about how quickly it has spread here. We know that Ebola is spread by Droplets. The CDC health advisory on EV-D68 says"As EV-D68 is a cause of clusters of respiratory illness, similar to rhinoviruses, droplet precautions also should be considered as an interim recommendation."

Then think about how quickly Ebola can be spread here.

CDC EV-D68 Advisory can be found at this link:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=546301#post546301

Abitdodgie's picture

It would be funny if they went down thier DUMBS sealed themselves in and and Ebola got in with them and they all died , I know to good to be true.

Not Too Important's picture

They do all have enriched uranium and plutonium in their lungs, from Fukushima. If they go down and seal the doors, even without GMO Ebola it's only a matter of time. They certainly won't be breeding down there, nothing but mutants unable to procreate.

Dr Strangemember's picture

Ebola! Ebola! Ebola!  I'm buying guns, blankets and MREs all over the place!!!!!!!!!  Hunker down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Death, destruction, violence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   :o

Dr. Engali's picture

20% chance? They do know we flew two cases in, don't they? Call me crazy, but I'd say that's 100% chance.

Grande Tetons's picture

They only put in the tip so it does not count. 

knukles's picture

Was in the news a few days ago (on Yahoo, of all places) that many more contagious infuckted folks have been flown in, just not been told about it.
Think it would be on purpose, no?

Grande Tetons's picture

We have some infected folks. However, let me clear, I have a plan. A plan that involves golifing...but a plan, nonetheless.