20% Chance Of Ebola In USA By October; 277,124 Global Cases By Year-End, Model Predicts

Tyler Durden's picture

"There's nothing to be optimistic about," warns the professor who developed the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to assess outbreaks, "if the number of cases increases and we are not able to start taming the epidemic, then it will be too late. And then it requires an effort that will be impossible to bring on the ground." As FredHutch reports, the deadly Ebola epidemic raging across West Africa will likely get far worse before it gets better, more than doubling the number of known cases by the end of this month, predicting as many as 10,000 cases of Ebola virus disease could be detected by Sept. 24 – and thousands more after that. “The cat’s already out of the box – way, way out," as the analysis of global mobility and epidemic patterns shows a rougly 25% chance of Ebola detection in the UK by the end of September and 18% it will turn up in the USA. "I hope to be wrong, he concludes, but "the data points are still aligned with the worst-case scenario."

 

Via FredHutch,

The next three weeks will be crucial to determining whether the Ebola outbreak is tamed or rages out of control, the experts agreed.

 

...

 

WHO officials have predicted as many as 20,000 cases of Ebola and laid out a “road map” for the outbreak response that calls for stopping the outbreak within six to nine months. But that’s only if a “massive” global response is implemented.

 

The scenario modeled in the new paper suggests that the actual number of cases could far exceed the WHO estimate – and far sooner. Vespignani said he and his colleagues are calibrating the model every couple of weeks to see whether there’s any change. So far, the answer is no.

 

“The data points are still aligned with the worst-case scenario,” Vespignani said. “It’s a bad feeling. I hope to be wrong.”

 

That’s a sentiment echoed by Longini, who said that he and other disease modelers are dismayed by what they see.

 

“There’s nothing to be optimistic about,” he said. “It’s frustrating. It feels like there should be a more concentrated international effort to help these countries.”

The latest counts Monday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which include WHO and Ministry of Health reports, put the total at 4,061 cases and 2,107 deaths.

The deadly Ebola epidemic raging across West Africa will likely get far worse before it gets better, more than doubling the number of known cases by the end of this month.

 

That’s the word from disease modelers at Northeastern University and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, who predict as many as 10,000 cases of Ebola virus disease could be detected by Sept. 24 – and thousands more after that.

 

“The epidemic just continues to spread without any end in sight,” said Dr. Ira Longini, a biostatistician at the the University of Florida and an affiliated member of Fred Hutch’s Vaccine and Infectious Disease and Public Health Sciences divisions. “The cat’s already out of the box – way, way out.”

 

It’s only a matter of time, they add, before the virus could start spreading to other places, including previously unaffected countries in Africa and developed nations like the United Kingdom -- and the U.S., according to a paper published Sept. 2 in the journal PLOS Currents Outbreaks.

 

There’s a roughly 25 percent chance Ebola will be detected in the United Kingdom– and as much as an 18 percent chance it will turn up in the U.S. – by the end of September, the analysis of global mobility and epidemic patterns shows. The new paper includes the top 16 countries where Ebola is most likely to spread.

 

Though concerning, a spread to Western nations is not the biggest threat. At most, there would be a cluster of a few cases imported to the U.S., probably through air travel.

 

...

 

“We are at a crucial point,” Vespiginani said. “If the number of cases increases and we are not able to start taming the epidemic, then it will be too late. And then it requires an effort that will be impossible to bring on the ground.”

*  *  *
As we noted previously, this is anything but "contained"

*  *  *

As another epidemiolgist (and federal advisor) - Dr. Michael T. Osterholm of the University of Minnesotta - warns:

I’ve spent enough time around public health people, in the US and in the field, to understand that they prefer to express themselves conservatively. So when they indulge in apocalyptic language, it is unusual, and notable.

 

When one of the most senior disease detectives in the US begins talking about “plague,” knowing how emotive that word can be, and another suggests calling out the military, it is time to start paying attention.

There are two possible future chapters to this story that should keep us up at night.

The first possibility is that the Ebola virus spreads from West Africa to megacities in other regions of the developing world. This outbreak is very different from the 19 that have occurred in Africa over the past 40 years. It is much easier to control Ebola infections in isolated villages. But there has been a 300 percent increase in Africa’s population over the last four decades, much of it in large city slums…

 

The second possibility is one that virologists are loath to discuss openly but are definitely considering in private: that an Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air… viruses like Ebola are notoriously sloppy in replicating, meaning the virus entering one person may be genetically different from the virus entering the next. The current Ebola virus’s hyper-evolution is unprecedented; there has been more human-to-human transmission in the past four months than most likely occurred in the last 500 to 1,000 years. Each new infection represents trillions of throws of the genetic dice.

And finally, as Wired reports, the professor extrapolates:

In a worst-case hypothetical scenario, should the outbreak continue with recent trends, the case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.

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knukles's picture

Just think of what our first "black" president's legacy is going to read like....

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/16/opinion/roger-cohen-the-great-unraveli...

NoDebt's picture

They're not telling anyone where they are dropping off all the illegals crossing the southern border, why would they tell us if they were flying in Ebola patients?

Dr. Engali's picture

I'm pretty sure it's not in places like the Hamptons. Maybe Fonz can confirm.

NoDebt's picture

I don't think he leaves "the island".  Most who live there don't.  Ever.

knukles's picture

LI is like a cockroach hotel.  Fucking shithole, even the "nice" places.  Without Wall Street money, it'd turn into another Detroit.

Not Too Important's picture

You don't have to be told where the illegal kids went, just look at the new respiratory infection map:

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/07/health/respiratory-virus-midwest/index.htm...

And for the record, there are still doctors that say they don't know what it is, despite weeks of testing for Enterovirus EV-D68. It could very well be something else entirely.

ebworthen's picture

They're going to pull out the virus before they cum back to society, promise.

Lost Word's picture

Dr. Engali,

I presume,

20 percent chance of Un-quarantined case getting here.

Prefer Zero percent chance.

somecallmetimmah's picture

Timmah is gonna hide behind his new couch, until all you fuckers die-off!

Ha!  Ha!

Then Timmah is gonna eat all the oreo cookies!!!

buzzsaw99's picture

probably the same model gs uses for their s&p predictions

Iriestx's picture

My prediction: whoever is making these "EBOLA IS GOING TO KILL US ALL!!!!!' predictions is an idiot.

Enceladus's picture

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=18065&d=141...

 

Check this out. this is the kind of math that even the Fed could get excited about

Modeled deaths 6/11/2015 4,335,959

Iriestx's picture

Wake me when something of consequence happens.  These "models" are about as reliable as a eco-terrorist's "global warming models."  This is just jack off fodder for doomsdayers.

BrosephStiglitz's picture

I could use some more cash.  Should work in admin for the WHO.  They must be raking it in.

thamnosma's picture

The UN has been a cash cow for decades. 

thamnosma's picture

Since there isn't a chance in hell of the world "mobilizing" in the next 3 weeks (after all we have wars to work on), looks as if this baby is gonna take off.   God help us if this thing mutates into a truly airborne state.

IridiumRebel's picture

or if mosquitoes pass the virus....

knukles's picture

"ewwwwww ...  leaches"
-H Bogart African Queen

Not Too Important's picture

"Someone pointed out that in medical terms, if the virus is transferred through tiny droplets in the air this would technically not be called an "airborne virus". Airborne, in medical terms would mean that the virus has the ability to stay alive without a liquid carrier. On one hand this is a question of semantics, and the point is well taken, but keep in mind that the study did not officially determine how the virus traveled through the air, it merely established that it does travel through the air. Doctor Kobinger's hypothesis regarding droplets of liquid is just that, a hypothesis. For the average person however what needs to be understood is very simple: if you are in a room with someone infected with Ebola, you are not safe, even if you never touch them or their bodily fluids, and this is not what you are being told by the mainstream media. Essentially I am using the word "airborne" as a layman term."

"Translation: Ebola IS an airborne virus. (as is annotated in the video and below, I am using this term in the layman's sense as TRAVELS THROUGH AIR)"

http://scgnews.com/ebola-what-youre-not-being-told

 

Not Too Important's picture

"The public has been misinformed regarding human-to-human transmission of Ebola. Assurances that Ebola can be transmitted only through direct contact with bodily fluids need to be seriously scrutinized in the wake of the West Africa outbreak.

The Canadian Health Department states that airborne transmission of Ebola is strongly suspected and the CDC admits that Ebola can be transmitted in situations where there is no physical contact between people, i.e.: via direct airborne inhalation into the lungs or into the eyes, or via contact with airborne fomites which adhere to nearby surfaces. That helps explain why 81 doctors, nurses and other healthcare workers have died in West Africa to date. These courageous healthcare providers use careful CDC-level barrier precautions such as gowns, gloves, and head cover, but it appears they have inadequate respiratory and eye protection. Dr. Michael V. Callahan, an infectious disease specialist at Massachusetts General Hospital who has worked in Africa during Ebola outbreaks said that minimum CDC level precautions

“led to the infection of my nurses and physician co-workers who came in contact with body fluids.”

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2014/08/airborne_transmission_of_ebola.html

Lots of scientific protocol for the scientifically-inclined at the above.

hungrydweller's picture

I bet those population control cheerleaders Buffett and Gates are just about giddy by now and peeing all over themselves.

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Considering Ebola is not discriminatory about its host, the last laugh may be ours. Well, if we managed to survive. Holed up in their vast estates and unlimited resources can only bide so much time. Sooner or later they must venture out and they will be just as susceptible to the agent as all of us. Reminds me of the old Gary Larson comic strip The Far Side when the couple emerges from their bunker shouting in elation " We're alive!" against a backdrop of nuclear destruction.

They may be peeing for a different reason at some point.

Miffed;-)

blu's picture

How do you manage compassion fatigue?

knukles's picture

Quit caring and tell the poor, sick, hungry, homeless and weary to "Go fuckyerself"

blu's picture

Got it thx i feel btr alrady

Not Too Important's picture

"SOME of America’s leading billionaires have met secretly to consider how their wealth could be used to slow the growth of the world’s population and speed up improvements in health and education.

The philanthropists who attended a summit convened on the initiative of Bill Gates, the Microsoft co-founder, discussed joining forces to overcome political and religious obstacles to change.

Described as the Good Club by one insider it included David Rockefeller Jr, the patriarch of America’s wealthiest dynasty, Warren Buffett and George Soros, the financiers, Michael Bloomberg, the mayor of New York, and the media moguls Ted Turner and Oprah Winfrey."

http://globalresearch.ca/billionaire-club-in-bid-to-curb-overpopulation/...

Chuck Knoblauch's picture

All the voting machines will be infected with Ebola.

Just stay home and call off the elections.

knukles's picture

Martial Law a la Boston lock down.
And no, voting over the Internet is not secure so elections p[ostponed until further notice.
But we'll be stopping by to insert your biometric ID chip
Love,
The Progressives

Grande Tetons's picture

Terrorism - Go out and shop, America!!!!

Ebolism - Go out and shop, America, on-line!!!

Seems we need to be indoors for some reason. 

joego1's picture

We could have a three term president living in a bunker before this is over.

Lost Word's picture

No,

Just everyone will be wearing the new fashion in suits,

bio-hazard suits.

ebworthen's picture

We can guarantee the 20% chance of Ebola in the U.S. if we send down more aid workers and soldiers to "help" - then fly them home for treatment in large metropolitan areas.

Oh, and don't restrict any inbound flights or emigration/visitation from infected regions.

I guarantee you we will do exactly what you should not do to prevent a pandemic.

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Eb,

You'd be shocked what I have been seeing getting off planes from Africa. They go directly to the hospital so they now these people are infective. The laxity of public health now is amazing. I have queried what the Hell is going on. Humanitarian or political asylum is the response and their hands our tied. Un-fucking-believable.

I know most here probably think this whole thing is just funny doomer porn. I hope to God they are right. From where I sit, I'm frankly scared shitless. Ok, if it really doesn't go down I guess I owe everyone a Coke.

Miffed;-)

blu's picture

Okay but what are you scared of exactly? Serious question. Maybe I'm just stupid, but I'm not real worried. Should I be?

thamnosma's picture

Only when you start bleeding out of every orifice.  I'd be worried at that point.

IridiumRebel's picture

I'll feild this one......

With an incubation period of 21 days or so, you could easily have someone fly to major city centers and begin a true global pandemic if it got to Beijing, Mumbai, NYC....it has infected hundreds of HC workers and many follow strict protocol. The word "airborne" is beginning to get tossed around. i'd say you better pay fucking heed cuz those in control are too tied to political correctness to mount a stabilization by closing flights and such; economics is too important. i suggest p-95 masks.

knukles's picture

BINGO!  And IR has the Daily Double!
For all the tea in China.... the answer is:

"i'd say you better pay fucking heed cuz those in control are too tied to political correctness to mount a stabilization by closing flights and such"

And build that truism upon Miffed's comment above.

This cannot be an accident. 
Not even most Progressive I know are that fucking stoooopid.

blu's picture

See thats what I mean. So long as its just a wild conspriacy to get money for algore I don't have to worry about it because all that is a fairytale. YOu want to scare little kids kay fine you do that. I'm sitting hear looking at all this and I'm going to myself the fuck are they talking about? Off the map is off the map and i don't believe in monsters.

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Ebola presents like flu. During flu season I handle 100s of flu specimens a week. This is a virus. Chances of it being on the vial is great. Many will be exposed before it is in my hand. With up to a 21 day incubation, do the math.

Miffed;-)

blu's picture

I get the math part.

Not connecting all the dots the same way you are but it's all a big guess. Most of what I read on these threads is a kind of Halloween jump-scare-porn. Not so much your stuff, but just about all of the rest. Slightly annoying if you want my opinion. So I cant think clearly about it.

But thanks for the clarification.

Not Too Important's picture

It's very easy. If Mif is wrong, there's nothing to worry about, except for the financial corruption and Fukushima radiation.

If she's right, 4 billion dead in 2.5/3 years.

Flip a coin, if you need an answer now.

Zerozen's picture

Is there no middle path? Maybe a few million deaths in Africa, then a flat line in new cases and a slow fizzle out?

I've been hearing horror stories of the impending depopulation of Africa from AIDS since I was 8 or 9 years old, and it just never really happened. In South Africa population has been officially flat for the last 15 years, unofficially millions of illegals from Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Mozambique, etc. have come in. The average birth rate is still 5 or 6 kids per woman and there are  still millions of unemployed slum dwellers, just like it was 5, 10 or 15 years ago.

Then again, Ebola kills a lot quicker than AIDS...

MsCreant's picture

I am worried because of the clusterfucky responses I am reading about such as the article I am posting here. I am reading about not only the lack of response, but the disorganization of response.

‘It doesn’t make sense’: Concerns over enlisting DoD in Ebola response

An excerpt from the article: According to a senior military official, General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said at a recent meeting: "The Department of Defense's number one priority is combating Ebola." However, a Defense Department source told Fox News that alarms had been raised about the decision. “We don’t need to be taking planners away from the CT [counterterrorism] mission, and that is what is going on,” the Defense Department source said.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/09/14/it-doesnt-make-sense-concerns...

Let me be blunt, not enough people are willing to physically go deal with this thing AND there is no coordination of effort. 

A doc died recently because they could not find the funds to fly her out of there. http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/ebola-outbreak-dr-olivet-buck-dies-sierra-leone-after-who-n202991

The wired article, the "virus hunter" they interviewed, they had no money to pay him, but they found some money to pay for his plane and other small stuff. http://www.wired.com/2014/09/r0-ebola/

They can't pay this guy, yet they are crediting him with the level of organization that exists now, and they say that if it was not for him this would be worse? Are you shiting me?

This is what concerns me.

knukles's picture

Yes, Missy, t'is a compleate fedrulgubamint clusterfuck
SNAFU

Urban Redneck's picture

The USSA fedrulgubamint has spent more money talking about ebola than the four West African governments have spent fighting ebola.

The next part of SNAFU is the scary part.

(but if you gave me access to the NSA's datacenters I could actually prove and quantify how much more the US has spent, which is almost as scary)

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Everything in life is pretty much a guess. Some things have more statistical probability than others. If this country were treating illegal immigration and even legal travel from a country with an emerging epidemic in a proper microbiological, epidemiological or bio terroristic framework, I would think as you do. The chances would be remote at best. Geographically we'd be safe. However, this virus has the capability to do extreme damage to the economy and cause many deaths. It is also a select agent. Numerous people infected making an coordinated attack would CRIPPLE the health system very fast. Believe it or not but we are NO WAY equipped to handle multiple Ebola infections occurring simultaneously in this country. I'm wearing a N95 mask to work under a decertified laminar flow hood until they can come up with the money to replace it and I work in a major medical center. What do you think would happen if there was even a rumor of an Ebola case in the hospital? I'm compassionate but not crazy.

Miffed;-)

blu's picture

"Numerous people infected making an coordinated attack"

See. That. That's the dot I can't connect to anything, so I don't have to worry. The rest doesn't follow and I don't have to worry about any of it.

Off the map is off the map and we don't worry about monsters that lurk off the edge of the map.

Right? amiright?

phaedrus1952's picture

A quick follow up in regards to the 21-day incubation period...the young nurses's aide to the dead doctor in Port Harcourt Nigeria was observed as a "contact" person for 21 days and deemed to be ok. Six days later she was led into an emergency room at her university in Nigeria with a fever, vomiting, and bloody diarrhea. She was immediately quarantined,and I do not know her status at the moment. However the hospital staff inmediately did a massive disinfection of the emergency room where she was.

One of the Ebola victims who survived in Monrovia was released and his girlfriend contracted and died of ebola a few weeks later.

It appears to me that there is a great deal we do not know, and that which is unknown is more and more ominous.

MsCreant's picture

Do you have sources to guide us to? Links? Not that I do not believe you, I want to know more please.

phaedrus1952's picture

Ms.  I got the story a few days ago on tersee.com. I just tried to retrieve it and this is what I got ...newsfetchers.com/2014/09/panic-in-oau-as-p'harcourt something something. Next one I got is faitholaniran.blogspot.com/.../panic-in-oau something something..  I originally tracked it down 10 minutes ago by just googling obafemi awolowo university sick nurse's aide.

Sorry I'm not a little more computer proficient. By the way that tersee.com is one heck of a news site with literally minute by minute news feeds on any topic worldwide. Another commentator - tall Tom - I think - turned me on to it a few weeks ago.