This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Secession Cometh to America?

Marc To Market's picture




 

There is much talk about the fragmentation of the international order. The failure of the Doha Round at the WTO, the efforts to make national firewalls are digital information, the decline cross-border movement of capital since 2008, the decline trade, the rise of anti-immigration sentiment all are part of the pessimistic picture painted by some observers.

 

The Scottish referendum also underscored how vulnerable the nation-state itself is to the centrifugal forces that have been unleashed.  Parts of Spain want to leave.  Parts of Italy and Germany have made secessionist noises. Sometimes it appears if it weren't for Brussels, Belgium might have ceased to be a country.  

 

It turns out the US also may be subject to secessionist sentiment. This Great Graphic is the result of a survey Reuters conducted and Jim Gaines wrote about here.   It was an internet-based survey that included about 9000 people.  It asked a straightforward question:  "Do you support or oppose the idea of your state peacefully withdrawing from the United States of America and the federal government?"

 

 

The results Gaines showed are on a regional basis.   If you click here, you will be able to filter the data by state and numerous demographic categories.  Gaines reports that Republicans favor their state leaving more than Democrats, the right more than the left-leaning independents, younger rather than older, lower income more than higher income and high school educated more than college educated.

 

In aggregate the results showed about a quarter (23.9%) of the respondents answered in the affirmative.    This is greater than the support for most of the anti-EU parties in Europe, like the UKIP and AfD.   Does this mean that next year, the 150th anniversary of the end of the war for Southern independence (Civil War), investors should be concerned about a new secessionist movement?

 

Gaines reports that follow-up conversations with some of the respondents found that the secessionist vote was more a protest vote than a genuine desire to secede.   The sense of aggrievement, Gaines found, was comprehensive, bipartisan, and deeply felt, even if somewhat incoherent.  It is an expression of disapproval of the direction that the country has moved,  or is moving in, rather than a call for independence.  

 

Some surveys in Europe has found, in a similar vein, that many voters of the anti-EU parties were also expressing disapproval and frustration.  In Germany, most recently the AfD won representation in two German state governments on a conservative social agenda, not its anti-EU stance, which it played down, for example.   

 

The political elites in the US and Europe have their work cut out for them.  There may be an economic solution for part of the problem, but it is not just about the pace of growth and historically high level of unemployment in many countries.  The issue of disparity of income and wealth means that aggregate measures of economic activity are no longer sufficient proof that more citizens have access to a better life.  In many high income countries, the crisis is over the social contract, which has fallen into disrepair, and respected primarily in its breach. 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 09/23/2014 - 19:25 | 5249700 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

The banksters won beginning in 1913 -- an extended WWI, a debt fueled Roaring 20s bubble, then the crash, depression and vastly expanded executive powers of the Executive branch.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 06:01 | 5250810 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Tremendous Avatar; and one has to agree with your post, in detail. it's simply correct.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 15:11 | 5248769 Salsipuedes
Salsipuedes's picture

Run of the mill divide and conquer. We in fact need to pull together and kick the bums out.

Nick the Greek's chances of success: 1 in 300.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 16:56 | 5249257 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

Can't cuz at least half don't want a change, think govt is good...black and white, rich and poor.  Too far gone down this path.

The only way to change it would be for those in media to step it up and start telling the truth and why the truth is bad for us.  

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 15:06 | 5248744 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Recent votes in both Crimea and Scotland has stirred the idea that people have the right to choose or reject who governs them. Any vote by any area stirs the issue and encourages more areas trying to shake free of the bonds they have within countries not meeting their needs.

Borders are a creation of man and not visible to the birds flying above. Much bloodshed and many wars could be avoided if the issues of regime change or borders could be handled in a more rational and constructive way, but do not expect this to happen. Borders and political control is a problem that haunts man since before the written word.

Recently President Obama and other officials have talked about the legal sanctity of sovereign borders, but in reality this is an argument of convenience masking deeper issues. When it comes down to it we are just pawns in this sad power game. If you doubt this just ask some of the many people displaced from their homes in Syria. More on the subject of sovereign borders in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-issue-of-sovereign-borders.html

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 15:52 | 5248977 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

Comparing war refugees to a people peacefully willing to disassociate from their governors is a false argument.   This country should have been permitted to divide in 1861.  We would have a far more responsive set of countries on this soil today, and not the plutocratic, oligarchical monopolistic powermongers living like kings while doing nothing but taking the blood of the people while they splash around in the lap of luxury all over the world.

The staus quo is only for the benefit of a very few in an exclusive Big club. 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:54 | 5248269 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

Clark Bent: Anyone on the dole should not be allowed to vote. It is an obvious conflict of interest. Would be nice if some politician would make this argument.

 

And Gov ain't on the "dole"?

 

Seriously?


Tue, 09/23/2014 - 16:18 | 5249100 hootowl
hootowl's picture

On the dole and/or elected, appointed, or working for the fed government......no vote......except for the military.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 18:57 | 5249610 bilejones
bilejones's picture

Especially the Military: You don't want fuckers who are so dumb and morally crippled that they kill at the behest of the political filth to have the vote.

 

It should disqualify you forever.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:15 | 5248399 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

But Businesses are People too, and all Wall Street Financial and MIC firms are on the Dole

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:47 | 5248221 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

The cause of all of this is Congress. Two-thirds of the states are voting Red and their voice is being ignored in Congress and is instead being overridden by a handful of large Blue states who have large populations who are on the dole.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:57 | 5248080 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

SECEDING from ISRAEL would be a good start!

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:05 | 5248019 Buster Cherry
Buster Cherry's picture

I would have no problem with a return of the Texas Republic.

I would say those immigrants from California or New York/Jersey be quarrantined for 12 months to assure they have no communist tendencies and are self sufficient enough to benefit the community and not instead a burden.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:32 | 5247820 Serfdom Highway
Serfdom Highway's picture

How about a 313,900,000-state solution?

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:28 | 5247806 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

< meh > at the end of the day, all eCONomies are local.  I may not always agree with what my county commissioner does or thinks, but he listens and we know what he does, and where he lives.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 15:56 | 5248991 Comte d'herblay
Comte d&#039;herblay's picture

We know what ours thinks and where they live and they STILL disobey the will of the majority at every important and expensive juncture that takes taxes from the people to give to their contributors.

Hang em.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:46 | 5247905 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

So would President Sambo be an illegal alien in a Free and Independent Texas?  I sure hope so... 

 

"Breakin the Law, Breakin the Law"

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:36 | 5248160 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Depends on what interest your "President" represents I guess.

 

One thing is for sure, people define borders and markets, not the other way around.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:20 | 5247769 himaroid
himaroid's picture

Socialists are terrified of this because they know that the states that really favor seccession would immediately cut benefits, and all of the deadbeats would leave and head to the free shit states.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:06 | 5248021 Clark Bent
Clark Bent's picture

Socialists are terrified of nothing. Having jettisoned reality, they are insulated from fear. In their minds, what they desire will eventually come true. They are certainly willing to murder millions to achieve this psychopathological end. 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 20:36 | 5249925 paul steinert
paul steinert's picture

Clark, I've met dozens of socialists in Europe.  There are some here in the ZH audience.  I haven't run across any who would "murder millions" for any reason.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 18:54 | 5249606 himaroid
himaroid's picture

They might want to think about the two way nature of that murder thingy.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:44 | 5247897 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

Alaska will be first... then Hawaii.  After that, Texas, the S.E....  And it will be glorious to watch Washington crumble into a pile of irrelevance.  : )

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 21:28 | 5250099 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Rhode Island, then Idaho and Nebraska.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:50 | 5248235 Freddie
Freddie's picture

China might end up with Hawaii.  They can have it.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 17:57 | 5249450 WakeUpPeeeeeople
WakeUpPeeeeeople's picture

Don't you mean Japan will end up with HI. They already own it from the '90s.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 20:32 | 5249912 paul steinert
paul steinert's picture

When you talk about Japanese Americans in Hawaii, you're talking about the most decorated veterans of WWII, despite being relocated to internment camps on the mainland.  Check out the Hawaiin phone book, look for surnames like Nishihiro, and note the first names:  Carl, Bob, Mary, Janet........no, they're not going back to Japan anytime soon.

Wed, 09/24/2014 - 02:20 | 5250726 Freddie
Freddie's picture

F Hawaii and their liberal pols.   The one lady who worked for the state mentioned something about Obama's fake BC and she ends up dead in an airplane ditching but everyone survives.  FDR did the internment camps and was another collectivist douchebag.

Nobody said China will ask.  The USA goes broke then Hawaii is wide open. Japan is in a worse tstae than the USSA too.  Destroyed by Fuki, demographic nightmare, debt bomb with no solution.  Japan is a dying country.  I like them but there is some character flaw because it is one country that has committed suicide. 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 16:06 | 5249038 tvdog
tvdog's picture

Hawaiian nativisists won't like being ruled by Chinese any better than they like being ruled by haoles.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 15:57 | 5249000 Comte d'herblay
Comte d&#039;herblay's picture

They might have a problem with the Japanese who have a stronghold in Hilo as well.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:34 | 5247835 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

And meanwhile all the people in the oppressed states will want to move to the seceding states seems a fair trade to me.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:03 | 5247688 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Best way to get out from under USSA debt.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 11:59 | 5247672 madcows
madcows's picture

The conservatives, the Young, and the Less-Educated.  Don't lump them all together.  Conservatives are pissed at the oppressive and corrupt government; The Young are pissed b/c they are inheriting a massively indebted society and will be footing the bill for previous fiduciary dishonesty; and the less educated b/c they are under the thumb of the more educated.  They can't advance b/c even being a burger flipper requires a PhD.  Funny, the less educated are the poorest, and most likely to be in the FSA?  They vote democrats in every chance they get, but they want out?  there's some inconsistancy there.

 

So, that leads to followup question, who doesn't want out?  Well, the democrats, b/c they need to control everyone, and need their money to buy votes.  The old, b/c they need to young to pay for their SS and retirement pensions.  And, the Educated, b/c they haven't done too bad in the depression.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 17:00 | 5249268 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

You give the young waaay to much credit.  They don't even know what's going on with debt, or politics.  Can't be bothered.   Don't want to fight, don't want to have to be 'mean'.   Just get along.  

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:29 | 5248126 SumTing Wong
SumTing Wong's picture

I have a PhD and three master degrees, and I want out. Let's all move to one state and tip the percentages to more like 60%+ there. Then we can secede. 

My reasoning is that this whole thing is going to come down sooner or later. And I want to be out from under it when it comes down. I have standing job offers in places like France, Germany, and the UK. And note that I haven't moved there...this will really be a pandemic type of a problem when this fucker starts teetering. And there will be no stability at all when it really gets going...

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 15:59 | 5249010 Comte d'herblay
Comte d&#039;herblay's picture

You should live in Portland.  The West one.  They have the highest percentage of people like you, overeducated, bearded, do not work, can't make any money, but love the rain, the 'freedom', and the dope laws.

 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 20:25 | 5249889 paul steinert
paul steinert's picture

STW, you have all those degrees, and you still couldn't come up with a better internet handle than that tired cliche?

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 21:26 | 5250095 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

a degree is not a sign of intelligence or creativity, its more a sign of persistence or indebtedness.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 11:55 | 5247659 Hail Spode
Hail Spode's picture

America was a great idea, but Washington won't let it work.  They want to impose their uniformity on every domestic policy when in truth they should not even have a say in 99% of domestic policy.   I DO NOT favor sucession because the other states are not my enemy, Washington and the globally-funded One party with two faces is my enemy.   The states need to demand changes in the relationship with Washington, that is the only way the union is ultimately sustainable on any other basis than abject terror and force.  What should the new relationship be like?  THIS http://www.amazon.com/Localism-Philosophy-Government-Mark-Moore/dp/06922...

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 23:03 | 5250386 dark_matter
dark_matter's picture

I up arrowed you just because your handle is Hail Spode.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 20:59 | 5249765 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

Hail Spode: "The states need to demand changes in the relationship with Washington, that is the only way the union is ultimately sustainable on any other basis than abject terror and force."

Yes, like these defenseless nations that have accordingly been terrorized and overrun by force:

http://www.hotelclub.com/blog/the-worlds-10-smallest-states

To hell with "Washington," in other words, and a "Union" that exists by force, not to mention by monetary fraud and every other contrivance imaginable. Even the Soviet Union's constitution provided for secession, for chrissakes, and it collapsed without secession and with barely a shot fired.  

So, then, will the American Union collapse, "not with a bang but a whimper":

https://www2.bc.edu/john-g-boylan/files/thehollowmen.pdf

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:14 | 5248386 madcows
madcows's picture

The other states aren't enemies.  It's washington.  Secession is a desire to free oneself from Tyranny.  The other states are likewise victims of washington.

I want to seceed b/c I don't want to be a subject of washington's criminality.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 17:58 | 5249454 Overfed
Overfed's picture

In a war, the government tells the people who is their enemy. In a revolution, the people figure it out for themselves.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 13:19 | 5248086 MrPalladium
MrPalladium's picture

Yes, the commerce clause needs to be limited to the prevention of trade barriers and tarrifs between states. That would obliterate 90% of the federal control over the states and the lives of the people. Double jeopardy needs to preclude a second trial based on omitted counts arising out of the same single set of operative facts tried in the first criminal trial. A state criminal statute should preempt a federal criminal statute dealing with the same subject matter. All matters realting to freedom of assoication, discrimination, religion, race and morality must be left to the states with all of the landmark supreme court decisions imposing national uniformity repealed and the constitution amended to so provide.

 

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:12 | 5248375 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

And all laws should have a sunset clause and law enforcement by paramilitary units should be prohibited and no legislative body should be allowed to delegate any authority to declare anything criminal and it should be clear that one of the reasons for an armed populace is to throw off a totalitarian government, and I could go on.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 23:38 | 5250494 Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog's picture

Very good summary Vaquero.  I think the sunset clause is the crucial one.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 11:52 | 5247635 shankster
shankster's picture

Texas can do it!

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 14:02 | 5248304 OpTwoMistic
OpTwoMistic's picture

I believe you about Texas.  I believe O intends to turn this country over to the UN before he leaves. If you can defend it, you can have it.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 12:41 | 5247878 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Won't happen.  Gov Perry traded in his manly chaps for some flashy fishnet pantyhose.

Tue, 09/23/2014 - 11:52 | 5247632 stant
stant's picture

It will come about by default. No central gov to stop it.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!