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Prepared? When Ebola hits your town you will want to be antifragile.
Back in July, I was pointing out my concern about air travel
between Africa and Texas.
Then some time passed.
Back on September 8th, thinking about my personal situation, I asked the following questions:
At what point do we implement:
- tele-commuting
- home schooling
- top off the farm tanks
- close the gate
- no guests
- staycation
Do I wait until Ebola cases confirmed in USA?
Do I wait until Ebola cases confirmed in my state?
Do I wait until Ebola cases confirmed in my city?
Do I wait until Ebola cases confirmed in my neighborhood?
Then some more time passed.
Well, now that Ebola has actually traveled on a plane from Africa to my home state of Texas, thanks to our government's inaction, I can eliminate the first two questions. Let's discuss some practical steps we all might take at this point. For the sake of this article, I will assume that many ZH readers have made at least some zombie-apocalypse preparations, maybe even along the lines of my article from 2012, Fear we are returning to a time in history where it is a common occurrence to fight for one's life?
Item 2
Develop a basic mindset. Here are some ideas. Commit to prepare for zombies, so that currency collapse, EMP, hurricanes, revolution, world war, [edit: Ebola Pandemic] or anything else will seem relatively mild. Understand that the time to make a plan and prepare is before, not after a zombie invasion. Understand that there is no way you can plan or prepare for every contingency, but doing something today goes a long way to peace of mind, and eliminating any regrets should the shit actually hit the fan. Realize that everything is likely to cost more next year, if you can get it, so better to buy it now. Acknowledge that nobody really knows if, what, when, or how anything in the future is going to happen...it is all just speculation. Finally, always remember that, "on a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero," so don't get too worked up, or go into debt, just because of this little exercise in paranoia.
One place we do tend to start our preparations is by trying to define the peril, or perils. Today, the obvious one is infection of myself, or family member, by the Ebola virus. But is that really the biggest peril? Maybe a bigger risk, for me, is financial. How might my business be affected by quarantine? Maybe, if someone in my family were dependent on dialysis, then the big peril is a collapse of the healthcare system, like in Liberia. Maybe, if the local grocery clerks decide that they would rather not risk infection for $7.50/hour, the big peril is starvation. Maybe, if others don't have food to eat, and I do, the big peril is looters. Maybe, our current government will never let a good crisis go to waste, and the biggest peril is to our freedom. Maybe, Taleb is correct, and we would all be better off if we stop trying to predict what exactly the Black Swans will be (not likely), when a Black Swan will arrive at our doorstep (less likely), and instead we start trying to be more antifragile, as described in his book of the same name.
"Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile. Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better."
Apart from option straddles on airline stocks, and going long MIC leaps, how can I become more antifragile? By thinking about Ebola arriving in my home state, I may have discovered that it isn't as difficult as it sounds, although becoming antifragile is not something that we can do in a hurry.
Sure, over the last month, I topped off the propane and diesel tanks on the farm. Why? First, it is easy, because I already have the tanks, and I already have an account with the suppliers, so all I had to do was make a couple of phone calls. Second, if our prayers for the best work out, then I am not out anything, because I will use the fuel over time. Third, if delivery drivers start thinking twice before going to work, and gas stations start closing down for lack of fuel, I will have options, and will not be put into the perilous situation of searching for fuel and waiting in lines to get a little. Taleb doesn't say this, exactly, but my interpretation is that being antifragile is mostly about having some good options when shit goes down in unexpected ways, as it always does. As an aside, what can you do if you don't have a farm or farm tanks? You could seek advice from the fuel can oracle.
I admit that I also made sure we have plenty of examination gloves, masks, gowns, rubber boots, and decontamination supplies. But does that make me more or less antifragile? Would I really benefit from having these things if Ebola cases started popping up in our school district? We do not have the inventory to sell these supplies, and if we did, I would just give them away, rather than profit from others misery. I guess it comes down to one's definition of benefit, and interpretation of antifragile.
In reality, I feel that most of the actions I can take to be more antifragile are long-term lifestyle actions, habits, not quick fixes or purchases in a panic. For example, as you all know, we live on a small farm where we grow healthy food for our family. We exercise regularly, and are not on any medications. We take our personal defense seriously. We take some responsibility for our children's education. We work on strengthening our relationships with each other. We seek to remove the middlemen from our lives through disintermediation. I believe that these are some practical ways to be more antifragile, although Taleb might disagree with me on several accounts, and so may you, dear reader, in the comments below.
Have we pulled the kids from school, closed the farm gates, and started an extended staycation because there is an African Ebola patient in Dallas? No. Have we stopped eating out at restaurants, traveling in airplanes or any public transportation, and consuming sugar in amounts that weaken our immune systems? Yes.
Peace be with you!
h_h
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OK, let's see. Ebola is supposed to be easy to spot, with blood flowing from almost every orifice of the body.
Seen any pictures of that? or even hear about any pictures or descriptions of that?
When someone dies of this "Ebola" have you heard of an autopsy in which it was stated that the cause of death was definitely real Ebola?
Have you heard almost every possible source of information (MSM), including our sacred leaders, trying to scare the shit out of everyone they possibly can?
Can you recall people who had real Ebola being "cured" in a short time? Doesn't happen.
Do you have the impression that maybe someone is trying to convince you that you should get the latest and greatest vaccine as soon as it is available, "before supplies run out", because you really don't know any better?
And why the heck is ZH taking part in all the scaremongering instead of the investigating journalism we follow them for?
Okay!
Once a month my wife have Ebola!
Kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk!
I read The Hot Zone by Richard Preston like everyone else and was shocked by his description of the copious bleeding from pretty much everywhere in the person's body. It was the word-byword description of disseminated intravascular coagulation, only gorier, which I've seen a few times in the hospital ICU setting and once in a trauma resusc.
As I've spent more time reading about this particular outbreak, it seems there is less profuse bleeding (roughly 20%) and more hypotension and hypoxemia --which is why survivors are sometimes impaired after they recover.
Ebola cells attack immune cells first so that system is not able to repel and fight the infection. This is a good example of what I've been reading:
http://infectiousdiseases.about.com/od/travelershealth/fl/What-does-Ebol...
See below and "no mention of the word information" in all this survival training. I find it far from unsurprising that we see no pictures of this most telegenic of diseases as clearly that would we ABSOLUTELY have an outbreak.
Leaving aside suspicion however how do we "survive" without the internet...and in my view we do not. The sooner Government that in fact created and deployed the internet starts seeing it as a public resource/utilitu fhe better.
You're not gonna survive unless you have access to the info folks.
Tomorrow a stranger will say with masterly good sense precisely what we have thought and felt all the time.
-Ralph Waldo Emerson-
GBK, i have not seen 1 photo of an Ebola victim, not that I would like to.
I will Google that and get back to ya.
One thing about Ebola in America is that people with money like to have lots of poor people working for them. They like to have their houses cleaned, their yards mowed, their children nannied, their country clubs staffed, and their meals prepared - all by poor folks (in clean uniforms of course).
So where is Ebiola most likely to strike in the US? In crowded poor neighborhoods, of course. And then all those maids, housekeepers, cooks, yardmen, parking attendants, and nannies will come trekking out of the inner city to go to work in the rich white homes in the suburbs. Spreading those body fluids far and wide.
Aachoo! Why Juanita - do you have a cold? No ma'am just a little tickle in my troat.
So, what does happen to American society when the rich are afraid to have the poor around them doing all those tasks they can't do for themselves? Uh oh.
Could be a great opportunity for the formerly middle class to start cutting lawns of the wealthy. But it won't be for $8/hr.
I think you would enjoy this book. Lot's of great cleaning tips.
I'd say what you did was prudent. It's a good thing that a very cold winter is at the doorstep, but the flu seaon is about to begin. This will raise merry old hell at medical facilities everywhere and it wouldn't surprise me that it may be mandated that medical personnel will not be allowed to leave their employment without penalty. I would urge caution.
Great book to read on this subject (prepping in a pandemic) is called Jakarta Pandemic. Imo a realistic portrayal of what people will do in a full blown pandemic/ outbreak.
Well good luck with all that.
Actually the symptoms of ebola are similar to a grenade going off in your guts.
But yeah whatever. Have fun.
Stories are starting to emerge on how this man got to Dallas and how the hospital dropped the ball and sent him home. This is why I have warned that high profile incidents covered by the media reassuring the public that the government stands ready to rush to our aid in case of a national disaster are a disservice to the public.
Following a tornado or hurricane in newscast we see FEMA workers spread-out and moving from door to door offering help to Americans in need. Be prepared that in the case of a major crisis or disaster the government will prove largely ineffective. If and when a large Armageddon event does occur we will quickly become acutely aware that God helps those who help themselves. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/07/government-pandering-in-disasters...
Well be'n how it is in Texas I will flame the fire...
Ebola; beans or no beans?
No beans. If it has beans then it's not ebola... it's fruit bat soup (duh).
You win something for that one!
Thanks for this HH. Good read.
Most important to me is staying connected. The software does run the hardware. There is a lot of hardware in this world.
Anyone who wants to get their head in the appropriate space for ebola should watch the old short-lived TV series titled "Jeremiah", which friends tell me is still available at hulu dot com if you're not into torrentland.
Once of the most enjoyable two hours of TV ever are the first two episodes of season two, where the predators-that-be get their just desserts... for once. But make sure you watch the first season first so you understand the background, context and story.
Good show.
Or 'The Road'. McCarthy never really said what the cause was. Maybe a killer epidemic, with nothing but survivors eating each other?
One week - pets. Two weeks - long pig.
My mask is a Sperian Opti-Fit with the CN / CS / P100 40mm Canister. NIOSH approved. Will this do the trick?
Rumor is, Hitler wore his mustache the way he did so a gas mask could properly seal to his face.
Those copycat Duck Hunters w/beards are dead meat.
To paraphrase Bill Cosby, that is about the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
Back in tthe 70's there was a movie called Tender Flesh, part of a double feature with Flesh Gordon, at our local drive-in. The male owned an ocean front mansion and would lure young women to his secluded beach under the guise of professional modeling. He would then invite them up to the mansion and...
Ah, I apologize, I've been drinking and something and someone else on this comment thread triggered my comment and I am not at fault.
Any scuba diver will confirm the under-the-nose trim for a tight seal.
How and with what, exactly, are you going to decontaminate it?
Honestly, I do not have the slightest idea. Suggestions would be greatly appreciated. Although, I don't think the mask & canister are specifically designed for this particular scenario.
Exactly.
1) Do not willingly put yourself in a situation where you are going to need to be decontaminated, or to decontaminate others.
2) When you find yourself in such a situation, have the right stuff on hand, know how to use it, and pray to God, because decontamination is rarely 100% effective.
While you cannot decon the fibers of a filter with chemicals, I bet you can microwave them.. obviously not your standard one minute on high.. Anyone know the particulars?
Hope so. Check the warranty out . . . maybe you could get a refund if not.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/top-doctors-ebola-may-become-airborne-and-may-already-be-transmissible-via-aerosols/5405907
"Viruses like Ebola are notoriously sloppy in replicating, meaning the virus entering one person may be genetically different from the virus entering the next. The current Ebola virus’s hyper-evolution is unprecedented; there has been more human-to-human transmission in the past four months than most likely occurred in the last 500 to 1,000 years. Each new infection represents trillions of throws of the genetic dice."
Love that part.
Humans are biologically designed to be disease incubators. Suggest you avoid contact with them as much as possible....
and don't forget to get your ' pig flu ' shot.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/death-toll-from-flu-rises-as-h1n1-strain-returnswith-young-invincibles-most-affected/2014/02/19/71f539f4-98b0-11e3-b931-0204122c514b_story.html
I'm reminded of a story when I was first in the investment business in the 1970s I had a client who owned an engineering firm and the worries of today were similar, only the details differed. Then it was hyper-inflation based on the massive stupidity of the Arthur Burns Fed, the Nixon idiocy which was followed by the Carter lunacy. (Nothing really changes, just the names). Viet Nam had ended in the debacle it was, inflation was running hot and the idiot Nixon became a Keynesian. he was followed by Carter who was spending his time avoiding swamp rabbits and Iran threatened the peace.
Anyhow, this client decided that he would change his risk profile and sold his business, buying Gold, Shotguns & ammo and freeze dried food. His wife divorced him, so he was living in an apartment with all of this stuff and of course, he had me sell all of his assets, which he added to the pile of gold, guns etc.
Months became a year and we had not yet decended into armageddon. I phoned him to see how was getting on and he was, it seemed to me, in a bit of stress. I asked what was wrong. He replied that he was running out of freeze dried food and toilet paper and worried about how he was going to deliver a gold bar to get cash to buy more.
The point, I think, is that we should always be circumspect because the morons in government today are no different than their predecessors. That said, it doesn't mean that we should take to the bunkers because we might wind up being as early to the post as my long ago client.
What about staggering debt, that is new!
Seems like more will be added on before it is over. Servicing that seems like a certain loser.
No question things are different now.
"First you've gotta know - not fear, know - that someday you're gonna die."
- Tyler Durden
"It's only after we've lost everything that we're free to do anything."
- Tyler Durden
Yea the fact that it was allowed into the usa by <cough cough> accident is irrelevant to the story and this story works for many other scenarios.
Oh, this is all silliness. Ebola is not that transmissible. They have isolated anybody this guy so much as waved at. Hell, even Nigeria managed to contain Ebola transmission. We have infinitely better public health systems here, and the climate just isn't suitable for the thing anyway. Whatever problems America may have, Ebola will not be one of them.... barring unexpected mutations of course.
Disagree with me now if you want. You may all acknowledge my rightness in a few weeks.
Ebola is only deadly if you are not immune. Hello????
"Whatever problems America may have, Ebola will not be one of them.... barring unexpected mutations of course."
Three different strains right now, all mutating as the scientists watch.
Yes, we will know in a few weeks how this is going to shake out. There's no stopping exponential math once we get a few more.
"Three different strains right now, all mutating as the scientists watch."
Practicing Antifragility.
It appears that the virus understands and practices Taleb's book much better than humanity does.
That's the funny thing. There won't an Ebola epidemic in the West. Africa has the lowest hygiene standards in the world, yet even Senegal managed to stay free of Ebola. Chill out people that is just a distraction.
If India or China get contaminated. Then it will be cause for worry.
Reminds me of that game "Plague" where you play the virus, hours of fun with my smartphone while commuting.
http://www.ndemiccreations.com/en/
It doubles every 26 days in Africa. It should do about the same everywhere it hits.
Check out the stands at the next Cowboys home game, coming up.The tip of the economic Ebola iceberg.
Good luck, folks.
I'll be there in my blue/white/silver hazmat get-up.
You may be correct. You are making a big bet. I hope it works out for you.
Monrovia, Liberia, forecast: Highs of 86 and lows of 72, avg 60% humidity
Houston, Texas, forecast: Highs of 88 and lows of 70, avg 60% humidity
Elderberry extract and a Colt .45 are all you really need.......
I am with you on the .45 but elderberry is nasty tasting stuff.
Elderberry wine is quite pleasant - My mum used to make gallons of the stuff.
I once distilled some when I was a teenager - dark red liquid gave me something clear that closely resembled rocket fuel!