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Prepared? When Ebola hits your town you will want to be antifragile.
Back in July, I was pointing out my concern about air travel
between Africa and Texas.
Then some time passed.
Back on September 8th, thinking about my personal situation, I asked the following questions:
At what point do we implement:
- tele-commuting
- home schooling
- top off the farm tanks
- close the gate
- no guests
- staycation
Do I wait until Ebola cases confirmed in USA?
Do I wait until Ebola cases confirmed in my state?
Do I wait until Ebola cases confirmed in my city?
Do I wait until Ebola cases confirmed in my neighborhood?
Then some more time passed.
Well, now that Ebola has actually traveled on a plane from Africa to my home state of Texas, thanks to our government's inaction, I can eliminate the first two questions. Let's discuss some practical steps we all might take at this point. For the sake of this article, I will assume that many ZH readers have made at least some zombie-apocalypse preparations, maybe even along the lines of my article from 2012, Fear we are returning to a time in history where it is a common occurrence to fight for one's life?
Item 2
Develop a basic mindset. Here are some ideas. Commit to prepare for zombies, so that currency collapse, EMP, hurricanes, revolution, world war, [edit: Ebola Pandemic] or anything else will seem relatively mild. Understand that the time to make a plan and prepare is before, not after a zombie invasion. Understand that there is no way you can plan or prepare for every contingency, but doing something today goes a long way to peace of mind, and eliminating any regrets should the shit actually hit the fan. Realize that everything is likely to cost more next year, if you can get it, so better to buy it now. Acknowledge that nobody really knows if, what, when, or how anything in the future is going to happen...it is all just speculation. Finally, always remember that, "on a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero," so don't get too worked up, or go into debt, just because of this little exercise in paranoia.
One place we do tend to start our preparations is by trying to define the peril, or perils. Today, the obvious one is infection of myself, or family member, by the Ebola virus. But is that really the biggest peril? Maybe a bigger risk, for me, is financial. How might my business be affected by quarantine? Maybe, if someone in my family were dependent on dialysis, then the big peril is a collapse of the healthcare system, like in Liberia. Maybe, if the local grocery clerks decide that they would rather not risk infection for $7.50/hour, the big peril is starvation. Maybe, if others don't have food to eat, and I do, the big peril is looters. Maybe, our current government will never let a good crisis go to waste, and the biggest peril is to our freedom. Maybe, Taleb is correct, and we would all be better off if we stop trying to predict what exactly the Black Swans will be (not likely), when a Black Swan will arrive at our doorstep (less likely), and instead we start trying to be more antifragile, as described in his book of the same name.
"Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile. Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better."
Apart from option straddles on airline stocks, and going long MIC leaps, how can I become more antifragile? By thinking about Ebola arriving in my home state, I may have discovered that it isn't as difficult as it sounds, although becoming antifragile is not something that we can do in a hurry.
Sure, over the last month, I topped off the propane and diesel tanks on the farm. Why? First, it is easy, because I already have the tanks, and I already have an account with the suppliers, so all I had to do was make a couple of phone calls. Second, if our prayers for the best work out, then I am not out anything, because I will use the fuel over time. Third, if delivery drivers start thinking twice before going to work, and gas stations start closing down for lack of fuel, I will have options, and will not be put into the perilous situation of searching for fuel and waiting in lines to get a little. Taleb doesn't say this, exactly, but my interpretation is that being antifragile is mostly about having some good options when shit goes down in unexpected ways, as it always does. As an aside, what can you do if you don't have a farm or farm tanks? You could seek advice from the fuel can oracle.
I admit that I also made sure we have plenty of examination gloves, masks, gowns, rubber boots, and decontamination supplies. But does that make me more or less antifragile? Would I really benefit from having these things if Ebola cases started popping up in our school district? We do not have the inventory to sell these supplies, and if we did, I would just give them away, rather than profit from others misery. I guess it comes down to one's definition of benefit, and interpretation of antifragile.
In reality, I feel that most of the actions I can take to be more antifragile are long-term lifestyle actions, habits, not quick fixes or purchases in a panic. For example, as you all know, we live on a small farm where we grow healthy food for our family. We exercise regularly, and are not on any medications. We take our personal defense seriously. We take some responsibility for our children's education. We work on strengthening our relationships with each other. We seek to remove the middlemen from our lives through disintermediation. I believe that these are some practical ways to be more antifragile, although Taleb might disagree with me on several accounts, and so may you, dear reader, in the comments below.
Have we pulled the kids from school, closed the farm gates, and started an extended staycation because there is an African Ebola patient in Dallas? No. Have we stopped eating out at restaurants, traveling in airplanes or any public transportation, and consuming sugar in amounts that weaken our immune systems? Yes.
Peace be with you!
h_h
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I'm glad we "unschool" and wish everyone who wants to could do the same.
At one time years ago, we had 4 kids in 4 different grades -- a veritable petri dish of "fun". Kids go to school sick all of the time - then pass all their crap around.
I would joke that I was going to set up an anthrax decontaimination tent outside the front door of our house.
If this thing "blows" - I'll bet one place will be via schools - where it will rage.
Just like the virus knocking the kids out, where only a small percentage tests positive for D68.
Right on schedule.
Remember, the US has been soaking in intense radiation (aerosolized enriched uranium and plutonium) from Fukushima for almost 4 years, significantly impairing our immune systems.
There is no returning to any health norms before 3/11/11.
Ever heard of hormesis? The trace amounts of radiation from Fukushima probably strengthened our immune system if anything.
I promise you there are more chances you die from a car accident than get Ebola.
Is that you Mr. Robinson?
Just had to +1, tap that ass!
Hormesis. Hahahahaha. Tell that to the USS Reagan sailors and the Chernobyl babies.
Here, let me help you:
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=chernobyl+babies&qs=n&form=QBIR&pq=c...
Great article and idea.
AntiFragile is a very good goal, especially when they are now reporting that the versions of Ebola we are seeing are very, not sure of the term they use, but basically it was changing very often and frequently....
. . . the genomes are mutating as the scientists watch . . .
Most of my homesteader/prepper friends call it "resiliency." Regardless - it's time to be the Ant instead of the Grasshopper and Winter's-a-coming.
Winter is good. Helps cut down on air borne and contact slime transmission.
I make my own colloidal silver and drink it on the spot after making it. I also use purest silver wire available, maybe
.99997 fine? Don't forget the placebo effect. If you are convinced it isn't real or you are not susceptible to it you will do
far better than if you are afraid of it.
http://www.naturalnews.com/047101_Ebola_colloidal_silver_government_seiz...
Yea I know, they did not really seize it but did stop delivery of it. Interesting article.
Colloidal silver is NOT that effective against ANY viruses. It does much better with bacteria based illesses.
It will help, running it through sinuses can keep a cold at bay, but odds are it will not be enough to overwhelm the virus and return you to health.
And I believe in it, trust it and make my own silver every couple weeks, give it almost daily to the family and dog.
Vitamin C is what saved lives with H1N1, Vitamin C is where I would look first with ebola.
I've already started ramping up our daily dosages. A body very high in blood serum C levels is a body that can kill off almost any illness that comes along.
Immunizations lower our immunity and leave us vulnerable to other diseases.
If I were a conspiracy theorist, I would think that this new focus on silver is to make sure people use it, and die. Then after the vaccinations and the real killer is released, most won't turn back to the silver and it would be effective.
But I'm just thinking out loud here.
Anyway, silver is great for many things, I NEVER use it as a first line of defense against viruses. Never. Having the right tool for the job is half the battle. Finding it is the rest.
Adjusting your pH to slightly alkaline works well against viruses and bacteria.
g'kar
unfortunately most people have no concept of the benefits of alkaline water. drinking 9.5 pH water will destroy most virus and all bacteria. acids like soda enhance the strength of both virus and bacteria within the body. im not sure how well 9.5 pH does with ebola as a cure but i know it wouldn't hurt .
Your body can't take that 9.5 pH for very long, but I think any virus or bacteria would find it unpleasent. Remember The Andromeda Strain? Acid pH is like feeding fertilizer to bacteria. The American sugar diet is perfect for them.
My well water is slightly alkaline. Haven't been sick for the 18 years I've been drinking it. Except those damn allergies.
I replenished today.
A note to anyone new to colloidal silver: you'll see some with 500ppm and some with 10ppm. You'd think: hey, I'll get the one with more silver, it's got to be stronger! But apparently it is a function of surface area and the 10ppm stuff (like Sovereign Silver) is only .0008 microns in diameter. More effective, and more easily eliminated. There's a good blurb on Amazon.
you can make 25 ppm very easily with 2 maple leafs. be sure to store it in a brown bottle
Couple o' Maples, a whack of alkaline batteries and distilled water is all you need.
Given the purity of Maples, I'd think they'd be ideal.
If you keep it in a dark cupboard, you don't need brown bottles.
Plus once you turn blue less people want to fuck with you....
Do smurfs care if you're blue? Closest I ever came to blueness happened when I went swimming with some friends in Lake George (upstate NY) in early spring. The girls looked fine regardless of color.
But less women will want to fuck you. Or men, whatever your thing is. Sheep and chickens probably won't mind though.
Do you know how much of the stuff you have to take to turn blue?
the blue is from using contaminated water, with salts in it. distilled water only, and nothing else, but the silver.
"Plus once you turn blue less people want to fuck with you...."
It worked for the Picts.
Here is antifragile for you. In my worst case scenario, the wife and I are dead in six weeks, even though we are prepared for a longer emergency. But if we DO live longer than six weeks, and everybody ELSE is dead, then we are the king and queen of Texas. Prepare to make obeisance and to be taxed.
Not bad, but you're counting on passive luck.
From someone who's read the book twice, this is more antifragile: Start a militia or street gang, ready to loot and engage in profitable mayhem when things break down.
The key is not only to survive, but also to thrive.
The last thing you want is stuff covered with infection. This is going to be more like "Masque of the Red Death" where you barricade yourself in place for a year or two and hope nobody gets past your perimeter.
I disagree let them rape and pillage, steal from the infected and enjoy themselves. It wont last long. Not long at all.
2g, when you assure us that 'twon't last 2 long, how far is ur projection?
justa' wonderin'
- Ned
Incubation period is max of 21 days. So I would guess about 3 weeks after the chaos starts.
Sure - "they" can do whatever they want.
I'm going to be laying low, however (assuming it comes to that) and trying to maintain a w - i - d - e bearth.
That's an interesting strategy - purposely get infected NOW when you stand a chance of getting decent care, take your 50/50 shot, and possibly be the big winner if you make it.
Hmmmm. . . That would be a ballsey move.
After you, Alphonse. No, Gaston, I insist!
"Here is antifragile for you. In my worst case scenario, the wife and I are dead in six weeks, even though we are prepared for a longer emergency. But if we DO live longer than six weeks, and everybody ELSE is dead, then we are the king and queen of Texas. Prepare to make obeisance and to be taxed."
Bruce Leroy and the Shogun of Harlem have dibs on NYC.
Dem burrowz gonna flame out in the geometric thing that someone just said "ain't gonna' happen"
Can I get by with a wetsuit a dive mask and a spear gun?
"Can I get by with a wetsuit a dive mask and a spear gun?"
Dear Rubberman: Yes, a wetsuit will work, the mask not so much as 100% of your body must be protected, flippers will make it difficult to run.
Who said anything about flippers? That would be the stupidest thing I could do! ALSO, I'll be travelling with my mother-in-law. So there!
how long can you stay underwater?
prepare, for this ,but luck is always needed.
Yo, overmedicated thang, ya gotta' get off the drugz and understand wtf is goin' on:
Actually, ya gotta' gitcher head out of ur ass.
U make ur own luck, don't cha' know
- Ned
UNITED AIRLINES IS RELEASING THE INFO ON THE FLIGHTS THAT PATIENT X TOOK TO AMERICA
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2777375/Were-YOU-flight-America-...
When do I stop going to work? When do I get a free pass (jubilee) on my bills?
Seriously though - I'm making long-term shelter-in-place plans at my farm right now.
Antifragile?
By the time this is over a lot of people are going to be anti-alive.
Starter fluid to burn the bodies...
I say we mail thousands of invitations to West Africans to come visit the White House. Ant-fragility starts at the top.
When do we get worried? We have six months to prepare.
When the number of cases has doubled every three weeks for six months inthe U.S. we take action. At that time the number of incidents will be less than 500 but it will be starting to accelerate and in the following six months it will blossom to around 100,000 cases and six months after that the number will be up to 10-12 Million.
The power of exponential growth.
The real question is how do we prepare?
antifragile..?
not sure.. but maybe the ability to not need to venture out for a few months might be worthwhile.
zombie-apocalypse preparations..
oh yeah.. Hornady did some good marketing in that respect.
?? how many hundreds/thousands of rolls of TP and little plastic bottles of H2O do YOU stock?
Inquiring minds want to know.
"Ant-fragility starts at the top"
i am still pretty much into the concept of catapulting diseased carcasses back where the problem began.