This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Maybe Tepper Should Stick To Stocks
Just over a month ago, business media went manic when none other than David Tepper announced that it was "the beginning of the end of the bond market rally." His word is truth and thus the world bid stocks, offered bonds and all was well in the world of status quo believers for a day or two... but then reality hit again and macro fundamentals, and collateral shortages, and so on... and now Treasury yields have broken below the Tepper-yield lows (with the 30Y -16bps from the 'end' of the bond bubble)... perhaps the hedge fund momentum master should stick to stocks - at least they are risk-free... oh wait.
Treasury yields from the Tepper-lows...
Chart: Bloomberg
»
- 5732 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
"Buys everythings...dollahs, dollah putz, stahhhks, stahhhk putz, bahnd putz...everything's going higher."
[Statement bookended by barely-audible flatulations]
Amazing how 1 'person of authority' can make some declaration and everyone just follows blindly....people are such fucking fanboy lemmings.
The thirty year is printing a triple top; I agree that the US Bond Rally is over.
bill gross made the same call in 2011. i wouldn't give either of them a plug nickel to manage.
Calling an end to JPY ever-falling yields killed many an investment manager's career from about 1990 to.... well, it's still going on, I guess. It will be the same in the US. Better stock up now before those juicy 2.4% yields are just a distant memory. We're going sub-one in a timeframe you will likely live to see.
Can see this getting really nasty if thse who bot on scale got a nasty margin call for buying all those e-mini's due at the end of October.
"the beginning of the end of the bond market rally."
i so dearly hope he put his $$s where his mouth was
moron
"I'll have you know fine sir we paid that man a pretty penny to lie like that!"
I know I put my $$$ where my mouth is.
Two weeks ago, I made several comments here about buying the US 10yr when it touched 2.6%. Today, you can't imagine how much fun it is to "comment" that the 10yr yield has fallen to ~2.34%.
Now, if only some moron (I don't mind if Tepper does it again!) scares money out of Treasuries again.....so I can re-buy what I sold today......again.
Look whenever these dorks pipe up you should know they are doing the opposite.
Like I said that day, "They always trot these mutha fuckas out to try and fool you. Fuck tepper and goldman."
But I thank tepper and goldman for giving me a chance to reload TLT.
That still looks like Godzilla on a rocket powered skateboard to me.
MOAR HOOKERS AND BLOW! RETURN TO NORMALCY NOW MR MARKET!
I have a witness!
They really are a pain in the ass arent they?
David Tepper is Spectacular when he follows the Fundamental Trend. But he has shown that he doesn't know when the Trend has ended. He was down on avg. 25 pct in the 1998 Russian crisis, the 2000 Tech Wreck and the 2008 crisis.
Indexes continue their slide into the red.
Meanwhile, oil still going down along with bond rates.
And damn...look at Soda Stream and CAT...not a good time to spend?
Hmmm...
As I said back then ... what the fuk does he know about bonds or macro?
In late July I drove through corn country and it looked like the crop would be great.
Is there a commodity guy out there who can explain why, after the obvious could be observed (ie the crop would be good), corn has continued to tumble. granted it is up nicely today but why did it continue to drop from 400+ish to 300+ish?. I would expect corn of all things to be pretty tied to supply. Apparently not...was this just momentum? ...Some traders who have never seen corn grow just doing TA?
I don't know beyond the generalized answer that it is traded in paper markets. I would really love to see the debt situation with some of the megafarms at these prices though.
"These are stunningly large crops." Farmers overplanted. They're getting kickbacks from .gov via the ethanol lobby, but there is a surplus of ethanol currently.
Too much supply versus demand = lower price.
1 Billion bushels higher this year versus 2013.
Drought in CA but the corn belt has had rain.
(I'm not a commodity guy).
http://www.agweb.com/article/corn_declines_on_harvest_outlook_as_wheat_climbs_BLMG/
Corn crops are looking about 70% average here.
it's not corn, it's the macro
most agri commodities have been falling, corn, wheat, soy, all following the fall in PM and oil
take a look across the commodities board, they have all been falling
Global economic slowdown = commodities fall
note: I'm not a commodities guy either, but I'm a macro guy, and macro trend seem pretty obvious
Not a huge Tech Analysis fan especially with crooked ass fed sticking their snotty nose in mkt business all the time, BUT IF that reversal low of what $192.50 from last Thursday on S&P gets taken out, there's going to be a blood letting.
2 hawks are leaving the fed
obama gets to nominate their replacements
german rates are breaking 1%, spanish & italian paper still trapped sub-2%
if someone can explain to me how the fugg rates are going higher in the short-term, im all ears
only way i see them going higher is WHEN the BIG HEAVY INDUSTRIALIZED shit actually does hit the fan & is sprayed all over the walls, ceiling & floor (people NOT getting their principal back on the "safe" bonds they are buying) and THEN they start dumping whats left in the bond portfolio, sending yields higher.
JMO but the "great rotation" is starting right now except its the EXACT OPPOSITE of what the clown-car on CNBC was suggesting; the REAL great rotation is going to be out of stocks, into bonds, and THEN when all the lobsters are in the pot, it will blow when they realize these sovereigns are not getting paid back.
But with the end of QE can it really keep rallying?
The thing is, with rates this low, even a tiny bit of volatility can mean big profits, so some playas are going to keep taking positions and trying to guide rates just another few points down. It's working so far. Watch out for those Belgiums.
Tepper was born at Goldman hi-yield desk, mining credit structures in Milken days, not govies with no spreads, alas.
let's not forget as member of Fed market advisory committee, he is granted early look at Fed policy decsions, as long as he whistles their tune. Fed wants bond rally to be over, so Tepper says it's over. It's that simple.