Submitted by Ben Hunt via Salient Partners' Epsilon Theory blog,
People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world.
- Bill Watterson, “Calvin And Hobbes”
Here is the most fundamental idea behind game theory, the one concept you MUST understand to be an effective game player. Ready?
You are not a super genius, and we are not idiots. The people you are playing with and against are just as smart as you are. Not smarter. But just as smart. If you think that you are seeing more deeply into a repeated-play strategic interaction (a game!) than we are, you are wrong. And ultimately it will cost you dearly. But if there is a mutually acceptable decision point – one that both you and we can agree upon, full in the knowledge that you know that we know that you know what’s going on – that’s an equilibrium. And that’s a decision or outcome or policy that’s built to last.
Fair warning, this is an “Angry Ben” email, brought on by the US government’s “communication policy” on Ebola, which is a mirror image of the US government’s “communication policy” on markets and monetary policy, which is a mirror image of the US government’s “communication policy” on ISIS and foreign policy. We are being told what to think about Ebola and QE and ISIS. Not by some heavy-handed pronouncement as you might find in North Korea or some Soviet-era Ministry, but in the kinder gentler modern way, by a Wise Man or Woman of Science who delivers words carefully chosen for their effect in constructing social expectations and behaviors.
The words are not lies. But they’re only not-lies because if they were found to be lies that would be counterproductive to the social policy goals, not because there’s any fundamental objection to lying. The words are chosen for their truthiness, to use Stephen Colbert’s wonderful term, not their truthfulness. The words are chosen in order to influence us as manipulable objects, not to inform us as autonomous subjects.
It’s always for the best of intentions. It’s always to prevent a panic or to maintain confidence or to maintain social stability. All good and noble ends. But it’s never a stable equilibrium. It’s never a lasting legislative or regulatory peace. The policy always crumbles in Emperor’s New Clothes fashion because we-the-people or we-the-market have not been brought along to make a self-interested, committed decision. Instead the Powers That Be – whether that’s the Fed or the CDC or the White House – take the quick and easy path of selling us a strategy as if they were selling us a bar of soap.
This is what very smart people do when they are, as the Brits would say, too clever by half. This is why very smart people are, as often as not, poor game players. It’s why there aren’t many academics on the pro poker tour. It’s why there haven’t been many law professors in the Oval Office. This isn’t a Democrat vs. Republican thing. This isn’t a US vs. Europe thing. It’s a mass society + technology thing. It’s a class thing. And it’s very much the defining characteristic of the Golden Age of the Central Banker.
Am I personally worried about an Ebola outbreak in the US? On balance … no, not at all. But don’t tell me that I’m an idiot if I have questions about the sufficiency of the social policies being implemented to prevent that outbreak. And make no mistake, that’s EXACTLY what I have been told by CDC Directors and Dr. Gupta and the White House and all the rest of the super genius, supercilious, remain-calm crew.
I am calm. I understand that a victim must be symptomatic to be contagious. But I also understand that one man’s symptomatic is another man’s “I’m fine”, and questioning a self-reporting immigration and quarantine regime does not make me a know-nothing isolationist.
I am calm. I understand that the virus is not airborne but is transmitted by “bodily fluids”. But I also understand why Rule #1 for journalists in West Africa is pretty simple: Touch No One, and questioning the wisdom of sitting next to a sick stranger on a flight originating from, say, Brussels does not make me a Howard Hughes-esque nutjob.
I am calm. I understand that the US public health and acute care infrastructure is light years ahead of what’s available in Liberia or Nigeria. I understand that Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas is not just one of the best health care facilities in Texas, but one of the best hospitals in the world. But I also understand that we are all creatures of our standard operating procedures, and what’s second nature in a hot zone will be slow to catch on in the Birmingham, Alabama ER where my father worked for 30 years.
The mistake made by our modern leaders – in every public sphere! – is to believe that they are operating on a deeper, smarter, more far-seeing level of game-playing than we are. I’ve got a long example of the levels of decision-making in the Epsilon Theory note “A Game of Sentiment”, so I won’t repeat all that here. The basic idea, though, is that by announcing a consensus based on the Narrative authority of Science our leaders believe they are stacking the deck for each of us to buy into that consensus as our individual first-level decision. This can be quite effective when you’re promoting a brand of toothpaste, where it is impossible to be proven wrong in your consensus claims, much less so when you’re promoting a social policy, where all it takes is one sick nurse to make the entire linguistic effort seem staged and for effect … which of course it was. The fact that we go along with a game – that we act AS IF we believe in the Common Knowledge of an announced consensus – does NOT mean that we have accepted the party line in our heart of hearts. It does NOT mean that we are myopic game-players, unerringly led this way or that by the oh-so-clever words of the Missionaries. But that’s how it’s been taken, to terrible effect.
I am calm. But I am angry, too. It doesn’t have to be this way … this consensus-by-fiat style of policy leadership where we are always only one counter-factual reveal – the sick nurse or the sick economy – away from a breakdown in market or governmental confidence. I am angry that we have been consistently misjudged and underestimated, treated as children to be “educated” rather than as citizens to be trusted. I am angry that our most important political institutions have sacrificed their most important asset – not their credibility, but their authenticity – on the altar of political expediency, all in a misconceived notion of what it means to lead.
And yet here we are. On the precipice of that breakdown in confidence. A cold wind of change is starting to blow. Can you feel it?
you are mixing theorectical with realistic.
At some point theories must be tested - thats when reality hits.
So this was not a Viagra article after all.
Common guys. We are all smart here. Haven't we figured it out yet. It's simple. All gov't bonds must not fail. Anything else is expendable even PM's.
If everyone is poor and broke there is no money to buy gold or silver. Sure the rich may take some stabs at it. But think about it with common sense.
US, Japan, Euro interest rates are heading for 0. It's guarenteed or the system fails.
Sure, keep pumping that gold and silver - i'm sure the pawn shop will give you a fair price when the SHTF. Maybe you can sell it on street corners with the cup of pencils.
....as you warm your hands with greenbacks from the fire you started with them.
Greenbacks as futile as gold and silver - buy practical tangible stuff. Productive land, 3 b's, animals, tools, develop skills, etc. If not independent and somewhat self-sufficient say goodbye sheeple. All this high-speak will not help you.
I enjoyed reading this post by Ben Hunt, as it was grammatically intact and punctuated correctly. A stellar feat, compared to some of the other guest posts that appear on ZH.
Thank you, Mr. Hunt for your contribution. I just found it refreshing based on the above criteria. I'm not going to critique it further regarding content, actionable suggestions, etc.
Sometimes, you just have to appreciate when you see the opposite of "losing one's language".
I get physically sick looking down from great heights like a balcony on the 25th floor. The Grand Canyon is a no go. Airplanes at 40k feet are ok though. Maybe I'm scared I'm gonna jump.
Great stuff, Ben!
Loved it.
Our leaders are F*cking nazis, that's the problem
feels more like a prodrome than a cold wind...with a touch of fever and an upset stomach...oh hell I'm leaking blood...
We are being told what to think about Ebola and QE and ISIS
.......we are being lied to on all 3 .......
the CDC is as corrupt as the rest of the obama regime giving positions and contracts to campaign cronys and researching useless shit.... like if monkeys use their left or right hand to throw feces..
the entire regime has been "purchased" with campaign crony deals and is infested wtih liars and hypocrites
the Fed is a criminal cartel
ISIS is a pawn in the sunni / shia deathmatch model of the middle east... iran vs iraq redux....
why is the #2 man in ISIS a chechen... why did the house of saud threaten putin with muslim terrorist violence.... why did turkey bomb the kurds and not ISIS.... why is susan rice full of shit... why dont we stop ebola at the source vs importing it .... why isn't obama impeached...why do the generals eat shit from a community organizer... why was hillary so open about taking orders from the cfr...why are the borders open, why are children getting paralysis from disease brought into the country by illegals... why is congress silent.... how does one fucking asshole in the senate bring government to a halt...
Oh gawd, one of those peak oil guys. A million different factions in this country. All to the marxist advantage. Obama just scoops up the FSA and cruises. Then resumes his destruction. R's just want to circle jerk and hope Obama will spare thier heads. The mexicans are sprinting to the FSA sign up. We are way down the rabbit hole.
You mean to tell me it's not a good time to sell of my shinies and get into futures trading?
Shinies ARE a form of futures trading.
Trade the metals for alcohol, honey, tools, soap, - anything easier to trade or use if the economy carries on - all will gain in value.
One problem is, those "scientists" who tell people what to think are not scientists, they are only given the label of "scientist" by human predators who control universities, and what these "scientists" say to "the public" has nothing whatsoever to do with "science"... or even basic honesty.
Almost the entirety of so-called "science" is now "authoritarianism". These scientists have the same role, purpose and modus-operandi as mainstream-media... which is to promote whatever propaganda their employer wants (government, corporation, NGO, etc).
It has gotten so bad in recent years that... the only scientist you might be able to trust is... yourself. That is, assuming you are uncorruptable yourself, and not funded by any predators. To be sure, we can observe others who appear to be acting as honest scientists and give their claims more weight and attention, but we can't even trust them, because so many are switching to the dark side, the side that acts as a mouthpiece for predators-that-be.
So, the question remains? As American's, what in the hell do we do about it? Can't understand why we haven't attempted to call for a country wide strike. Everyone stock up on things & then say we all stay home until Obama & the rest of the corrupt govt. in DC are removed & replaced with some top military brass? It is not violent, yet we could make a difference, but how do we get American's to do this. I would love to go down trying something, anything rather than curling up in the fetal position like a baby.
Our Founding Fathers would be so ashamed, disgusted & embarrassed by this sissy group of American's. They left us the Constitution along with instructions to deal with a bunch of traitors guilty of treason. They made damn sure the 2nd Amend. was in place. You know they will come for those soon. The clock is ticking & we may be approaching our 2 minute warning!
We can kill the beast by simply not consuming any more that the bare minimum from now till Christmas - when the sheeple stop buying 70% of the economy stops and the political system falls with it.
edit
the ones most hurt by this action would be China and other outsource countries - strengthen the US and send the world a message!
"A cold wind of change is starting to blow"
If by starting you mean 1972...
No - 1913
That, too.
"not their credibility, but their authenticity"
When did they ever have either of these? How do you loose something you never posessed?
- Pods
EBOLA
US: Second health care worker in Texas tests positive
Latest
http://tersee.com/#!q=ebola&t=text
Third Ebola case in Texas, second case of transmission in US to a health care worker.
http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/mobile/content.aspx?id=8589991239
Of course its not all bad news
Not for some of us at least, and I know for certain that more and more are catching on and catching on fast.
Of course you see them lying, you see the body language, the tics the sweat the eyes, the facial muscles that are all screaming at you ,LIAR if you learn how to read it, but instead of getting angry you start to see a pattern, a pattern that shows how myopic their view is and even more important what kind of lens they see the rest of us through.
Now the game is how to present before that lens distorting their world the picture you want hem to see.
That is how what what they see and what you do become two entirely different things.
But for them they have only a lens to see through, they cannot see what you see, the reality, so they can never catch up to you.
One step ahead at all times, Look after number one, look for a way to extend to two steps and three steps ahead,.
It is safe and even people who know me think sometimes I seem reckless in some of my actions, I am comfortable, because I can see what they never look for and don't even understand.
It works both ways, you just have to learn to hand the same crap back to them, so so full of truthiness.
I went through the airport a couple of weeks ago and filled in the declarations card.
I had nothing more thn a string of indecipherable garbled nonsense for the answers and I signed it Now Fuck Off
I could see the fat little man in his booth looking officious, and what he did, gance at each card and pit on the pile with the rest. That exactly what he did , he glanced at it, saw letters and writing and put it with the rest.
I KNEW he wsnt going to read it, that if he saw any writing at al he was only ever going to believe it was all done properly and correct.
As long as I can increase my $tack at a di$count that's good enough for me as a strategy. When *they* see the light, it will be a new game though. Let's keep playing on for a bit longer.
Our "Fearless Leaders", whomever and wherever they may be, have sacrificed their LEGITIMACY—not credibility or trustworthiness or authenticity. Politicians have always been sociopaths or psychopaths.
Your prime example, the scientists, long ago sacrificed truth for cushy public funding. The scientific system only works if each scientist is free to research, publish and read the works of other truthful scientists. But, truth disappeared when anonymous—and self-interested—reviewers shutdown dissent, by denying publication to dissenters while also anonymously awarding public funding to scientists who won't rock the boat.
That's why a fundamentally religious creation story—The Big Bang Theory—exists long after it was falsified by the works of Halton Arp and others. Arp's book, "Catalogue of Discordant Redshift Associations", copyright 2003, shows numerous high-redshift objects closely connected to neighboring low-redshift galaxies, by a largely manual sensor fusion process. That is, combining multiple visible light telescope images, x-ray telescope images, and radio telescope images, at the appropriate scale, declination, right ascension, etc.
For instance, the disturbed galaxy IC 1767 (Arp, Astrofizikia, 1968), z= .018, has two quasars of strikingly similar redshift, z= .669 & z= .616, almost diametrically opposed.
Radio quasars 3C 39, z= .765, and 3C 37, z= .672, lie across the disturbed pair of galaxies NGC 470/NGC 474 (Arp, Atlas of Peculiar Galaxies No. 227). Arp and Russell (2001) calculated that their probability of "accidental association is about 1E-9 (I.e., one chance in a billion).
The reference catalogue is filled with examples of very well known galaxies that categorically falsifies the theory that redshift equates to distance. Mr. Arp's first publication was in Scientific American in 1963. As his discoveries multiplied he was forced out of the United States by the scientific establishment. Fortunately he was allowed to continue his work in Germany.
In essence, it's been known that The Big Bang Theory was increasingly fraudulent for fifty years. But, what are your children learning in school? What are the carefully coifed fraudulent TV scientists telling you? Don't trust them. They sacrificed their Legitimacy for money. Our whole culture is rotten to the core.
If you are interested in searching for the truth, then Google " plasma universe" and "Arp controversy".
By the way, I am a genius. But, I do not believe that most people are idiots. I don't think or talk about people that way. They have received horrible educations at exorbitant cost in the United States. Companies selling language software use public school language classes as their best advertising.
..... a breakdown in confidence requires that people start paying attention, otherwise all confidence would have already been lost.