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Small Business Optimism Slides, Hiring & Capex Plans Collapse
Just when the talking-heads thought it was safe to proclaim small business is back, the data turns around and smashes them in the face. The headline NFIB Small Business Optimism index slipped to its lowest since June (the 4th month below the 7-year-high peak in May). More problematic was the sub-indices which saw plans-to-hire drop to six-month lows and wage-related series stalling out, capex spending plans plunge to 2-year lows, along with current job openings.
Hiring tumbles...
Capex plans collapse...
As Goldman adds, NFIB small business optimism edged down a bit more than expected in September.
KEY NUMBERS:
NFIB small business optimism 95.3 for September vs. median forecast 95.8
MAIN POINTS: NFIB small business optimism declined to 95.3 in September (vs. consensus 95.8), from 96.1 in August. By component, the largest declines occurred in plans to make capital outlays (-5pt to +22) and current job openings (-5pt to +21). However, the proportion of respondents describing now as a good time to expand their business rose to a new high for the recovery (+4pt to +13). Upward momentum in wage-related series stalled in September, as reported wage increases declined (-4pt to +18), while plans to raise wages remained unchanged at +15. Despite the September downtick in the headline index, small business optimism is not far from the post-recession high set in May.
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Quit cheering us up, Tyler, with all this wonderful economic news.
The cool thing about having a 29.5 hr/wk job is you have more time to read it.
Thanks to John Boehner....for doing nothing. You inspire all of us.
Be a FX trader or join ISIS.
Can't I do both?
Crazy shit going down in Mexico...mass graves of students killed by the police, college gets burned down, and not a single article in American mass media?
Here is what you will find on the front page of Yahoo...
20 Photos of hottest NFL cheerleaders in action Week 6 of 2014 season
Where is the first lady on this one? No hashtags?
Mexico is a dump, glad we have the border sealed shut!
Pssst, if the War on (some) Drugs was ended all this would stop and Mexico would go back to being just another third world dump, not a warzone.
pods
not to mention the hemp crop for durable goods...
#bringbackourbuffalojills
and essential oils
hedgeless, thx...
fucken-eh, crazyhorse is riding again and i'm with his spirit!
edit-not bitting on the cheerleader drool shit
And the irony there is that in 3rd world Mexico, the television programming is identical - 'Tit-ilation' 24/7, to numb the otherwise miserable conditions of a 2-class society...
if you like your ISiS, you too can keep your ISiS!
unexpected, unlimited expenses no not ebola: one man...
Inflation hitting on the cops..thinking a few more Erics and the state is broke.
"It is likely the most intense manhunt in the history of the Pennsylvania State Police, which insists it will spend every waking moment to find Eric Frein, the man they believe ambushed two of their own.
But that's not all they're spending.
Three hundred troopers a day are filling the woods in Pike and Monroe Counties in a 24-7 search for Frein that began more than a month ago.
State police say they don't have cost estimates but calculations by the Allentown Morning-Call show that PSP is spending $1.1 million a week just in added labor costs.
Throw in hundreds of other officers from several different agencies - FBI, ATF, New Jersey State Police, New York State Police - and the cost to taxpayers is closer to $1.5 million a week, the newspaper estimates.
Add in the cost to feed and lodge all these people swarming the middle of nowhere and it's even higher.
Some locals say the cost is too high. "It's gotten a little ridiculous after this amount of time," Mount Pocono's Gary Johnson told Scranton television station WNEP. "If they can't find him in this amount of time, they gotta stop spending that amount of money."
GO ERIC GO !!!!
Long way to go to beat the 5 time National Hide-n-Seek champion, Eric Rudolph.
pods
A silly cop and we go nuts, kill a president and we juggle until there are no more balls and forget about it.
Which leads to the question, is Eric Frien that good, or or those searching for him inept?
It does provide a good lesson on just how easy it would be to 'bring it all down man'...
Facts is facts. Just gotta look at the bright side. Now you have time to pursue your artistic talents the world has been waiting for, or make 10 million selling authentic American Indian beaded necklaces made in China at the swap meet, or trade them for a can of Spam.
Velocity growth here we come!..............any moment now...............wait a minute now.............just a wee bit longer.........any second now...........any time now..........erm....
This is going to be the decade of treading water.....but eventually the Government will regulate you out of business...your sales will not keep up with their costs...
Decade? Who can tread that long.
Those who are debt-free can tread water for a long damned time because external support is not required.
We're self-funding. We can change directions on a dime. We can shrink our financial lives down to the size of a mouse, if that's what it takes. In short, we have options not available to those deeply in debt.
You're welcome to join us, by the way.
We too can change directions on a dime, and then give you nine cents change.
That sums it up.
Exactly. Very well said.
Youngman - that was last decade. This decade is about the remaining small business owners doing it all themselves without employees to survive.
Yep. That is what it is looking like. More hours less money. Then less employee hours or less employees doing more.
dupe
SITTING IN AN ENGLISH GARDEN WAITING FOR THE SUN...
If the sun don't come....
DON'T YOU KNOW THE JOKER LAUGHS AT YOU?
DON'T YOU KNOW THE JOKER LAUGHS AT YOU?
putting in tops every which way you look and splice it and dice it...
cept debt creation,ha...
I know lots of LONG TIME small businesses and in many different areas and sectors and NONE are feeling better and some are worried the end is near......the Golden Goose has been slaughtered. (And yet the public takers I speak with have no idea how this means they are dead too!!!!)
Small business failures should receive a lot more attention then they do, we will see a lot of these in the near future as people have started down this path when unable to find a job. Small business is hard, going into business is risky, and many people are not up to the task.
As a property owner that leases space to many start-ups I have a keen interest and knowledge of the microeconomics that occur. Just as important is the effect, long and short term on the economy. With most business start-ups having a very short lifespan of just months or around a year, the short term burst of spending is quickly followed by the longer term negatives. More on the toll taken on all of us when a small business fails in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/03/small-business-failures.html
Agreed. Nobody I am speaking with is planning on hiring. Why would they?
I just recently talked to a small business owner. He said the last 4 months was the worst he had in his 30 year history. He said he'd close up the store this month if he was renting, but he owns his store. He said he talked to quite a few business owners this year and all of them said the economy was dredful. It's no joke. It's really awful out there.
Dobermangang - I own a small business and yes, the last four months were dreadful. Summer isn't the best time for publishing anyways but I usually see 6-8 incoming requests per month from my advertising. This year it was TWO since June. In any event, I am not going to add people with a completely lawless, police state government that can rob me at will. When the police state shit starts going away I'll invest more.
Police states are horrible for confidence and I had the State of NH rob me when it went bankrupt in 2011. They said I owed $6k from people on unemployment in 2007, although I paid all UI's. When I said I was coming up to Concord with proof and an attorney they wired tapped the money directly out of my account the next morning. It sure teaches you some hard lessons about government. Ask some cops and firemen up there what happened to there pensions.
Federal government does ZIRP and inflates away the debt while the state and local government robs with retroactive laws, using police as tax collectors and now cash forfitures.
dupe
Small business, with two to ten employees, are becoming an endangered species in America. The family business once the backbone of this country is under attack from the unintended consequences of the many laws and mandates passed in recent years.
Inspections, a plethora of permits, licenses, taxes, insurance requirements, and regulations make it almost impossible for a small business to open, compete, and operate legally. Big government has become toxic for small business. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2012/03/small-bussiness-under-attack.html
No room for small business in the communist utopia, which exists ALWAYS in the future.
It is the statist utopia. Small business is too independent from the state. I'm actually getting the same vibe from the local economic development team; basically going around trying to impose their will on owners for aesthetic reasons. Of course they have no concept of money or value either...
Most small businesses are IDIOTS and go out of business, anything they say in a survey means SQUAT! Just watch Sharktank if you don't believe it.
Some shrink to a small business of one. Some of those cats have the right idea.
You are right. I used to employ 35 full and part time people. Now I am down to me contracting my services. It is far less stressful and I am making money for me.
This is a bit like the unemployment numbers. You only get feedack from those still in the system. The small businesses that no longer exist do not have input on hiring or CapEx.
As such, these numbers are actually skewed to the positive. Just like an employment environment where those have just "given up" no longer count in the stats.
Ths is far gloomier than most realize.
Way to go, fucking obozocare!
nodebt +1000
economy is crap
barry says mission accomplished
this communist has to go
there are so many people who think obama is a communist...wow...he is the farthest thing from it...how can you not see that???
It may very well be just my company, but there has been a very recent negative "surge" of poor sales. I scratch my head and try to figure it out, but all of the general indicators that suggest sales should be ok are normal. But sales suck folks, and frankly I have never seen such a sudden struggle to move inventory. Again, it could just be us, and a fluke, and tomorrow things will be back to normal, but we sell product that typically does well regardless of the economy and we're on about the third week of shit performance. I've really thought about selling out what we have available, stop ordering new product, lay off staff, and ride it out with the revenue generated from selling what we now have in storage.
It is not just your company.
We had a decent September and October is off to a good start but we also have been seeing this same pattern for a few months. The month starts well and turns to basically break even in the final week. Another thing we haven't been seeing is the bigger ticket items being sold.
The thing about inventory is you need new stuff all the time to move it. It certainly is stressful when you know you need to restock but understand where the economy could be headed. It would be even harder for some that have higher debt but at this point we are in decent shape. We've been preparing but aren't quite where we want to be.
We are up 2014 over 2013 but the last 4-5 weeks things have gone into a downward direction for sure. Sometimes I want to cut bait and watch from the sidelines rather than buck up and take more risk, just to keep the deal going. Don't need to frankly.
We'll just have to wait and see. The chart shows a fair amt. of volatility, but certainly CapEx is still considerably below pre-Lehman.
I'm ready for the dreaded downward reds, but there are obviously still areas where business is doing just fine, if not booming. .Gov is still spending a couple of trillion a year. If you've been fortunate enough as a business to tap in to that spigot, then you're probably not too worried about the future.
On a personal note, having a business based in metro Detroit, I can attest to the rebound for most any and all businesses related to auto. Yes, I know auto sales are a part of the big Ponzi, but if the former Home of the Free is selling 16 or 17 million cars a year, then those businesses will continue to boom.
Edit: And by "selling" I mean all forms of leases/sales/financial voodoo that gets cars off the lot.