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Ebola! How Worried Should We Be?
Submitted by Chris Martenson via Peak Prosperity,
The current Ebola outbreak, unlike others throughout history, is lasting a very long time; with cases now being reported on a variety of continents well outside of its equatorial African origin.
I'm not especially worried about Ebola striking me or my loved ones, for reasons I'll explain in a moment. But I'm growing increasingly concerned about government response to the outbreak.
So let's spend some time understanding the nature of Ebola, specifically, and viral contagion, more generally. At the very least, Ebola can serve as an instructive reminder about how our society's responses to a viral outbreak could prove to be at least as disruptive and damaging as the virus itself.
Ebola
While very often cited as being 90% fatal once contracted, Ebola is rarely that lethal. In fact it was only that lethal in a single isolated outbreak. A 50% to 70% mortality rate is more common. As of Oct 10 2014, the latest outbreak had afflicted 8,376 and killed 4,024 -- a mortality rate of 48%.
This places the Ebola strain responsible for the latest outbreak on the lower end of the Ebola lethality scale. Don't misunderstand me: this is still a very deadly virus, to be sure. But it's not a guaranteed death sentence, either.
Viruses come in a wide variety of types and shapes. But the general structure they all share is that they have some form of nuclear material, either DNA itself or RNA, housed inside of a protein capsule. Think of a peanut M&M, where the peanut is the genetic payload and the outer coatings serve both a protective purpose (while the virus is seeking a new host) and as the means of docking with a host's cell.
That’s really all a virus is. A few proteins and some genetic material. No membranes, no sexual merging of genetic material, and no ability to replicate themselves all on their own. There are debates still ongoing today as to whether a virus should even be considered a living thing.
The life cycle of a virus is very simple. A virus particle will dock with a target host cell (most viruses are highly specific for the precise sorts of cells they will and won’t bind to), insert its genetic payload which hijacks the host’s replicative machinery, replicate the genetic payload wildly which codes for both new genetic material and protein capsule subunits, and then reassemble lots of intact virus particles which then escape the host cell to go and find other cells to infect.
Within a mammalian host, once a virus attack is recognized, an antibody response is mounted and the fight is on. As the virus particles escape the host cell (which is usually damaged or killed as a consequence of having been hijacked) it is vulnerable to being identified by a host antibody, itself a highly-specialized protein that will 'dock' with a virus particle more or less permanently (they bind together very tightly) and thereby incapacitate the virus’ ability to dock to a new host cell.
With lethal viruses, something goes wrong with this process. Either the virus replicates too quickly for the host to counter effectively, or the virus tricks the immune response into either too little or too much activity -- both conditions which can end poorly for the host.
For example, the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 preferentially killed those between the ages of 20 and 40. This was unusual because it's exactly opposite the flu mortality patterns we normally expect, where the very young and the very old are the most susceptible.
The best prevailing explanation for this is that it was the very health and vigor of the patients that did them in. The Spanish flu (and other avian flu strains) cause the host body to unleash a 'cytokine storm' which is a very unhealthy, and sometimes lethal, positive feedback loop between immune cells and a class of attractor signaling molecules called cytokines. As more cytokines are released, say into the lung tissue, immune cells are attracted and can then release more cytokines, which attracts more immune cells, and so on. The place to which they are attracted becomes damaged by this overly-aggressive response of the immune cells and for the Spanish flu victims, this happened in the lungs, critically impairing respiration. Hence, the 'healthier' a host was, the more damage the Spanish flu virus caused.
In the case of Ebola, the virus preferentially targets the cells that line the inner walls of blood vessels (a.k.a. endothelial cells) as well as white blood cells, a fact which helps to spread the virus throughout the body fairly rapidly, as white blood cells actively migrate system-wide.
Through a variety of mechanisms, the Ebola virus causes the endothelial cells to detach from the blood vessels and die, which compromises blood vessel integrity. This targeting of the blood vessels is why the Ebola virus is classified as a hemorrhagic fever. The patient's blood vessels literally break down. That leads to the many visible symptoms of an Ebola victim, not the least of which is various burst blood vessels all throughout the body.
(Source)
Currently, it's thought that once exposed, an Ebola victim will incubate the virus for a period of up to 21 days before symptoms express. It's only once the victim is symptomatic that they themselves can transmit the virus and infect others.
This characteristic of Ebola, more than any other, is why I don’t fear it overly much as a pandemic risk. A far more worrisome virus would be one that's infective during asymptomatic stages of its host cycle, as is the case with HIV.
Early symptoms of Ebola include the sudden onset of fever, intense weakness, muscle pain, headache and sore throat. Unfortunately, that pretty much describes any reasonably intense flu, which complicates screening procedures and causes unnecessary worry among those who merely have the flu but worry about the possibility of Ebola.
Nonetheless, authorities have no choice but to take every traveling passenger with these very ordinary flu symptoms as a possible Ebola case. It's a safe bet we’ll hear plenty in the coming days and weeks about Hazmat-suited response teams escorting sickly passengers off of planes.
A tip: if you have a fever, don’t travel. You'll worry a lot of people unnecessarily. And you may end up in quarantine, really throwing your travel plans off the rails.
The Short-Term Risk
While gruesome and heartbreaking, the actual number of deaths by Ebola as well as the total number of people infected is very, very low compared to other hazards out there.
Are you more worried about Ebola than driving to work? If so, you have those risks entirely inverted.
(Source)
In the above chart, there are 27 years worth of data contained in each data point. That means that if the chart reads 2,700 for a given day, then an average of 100 people died on US roads on that day each year out of 27.
For the US, the above chart translates into ~33,000 vehicle deaths per year. Even in Africa where some 4,000 people have died from Ebola so far in 2014, America's vehicle fatalities dwarf that current statistic.
Other communicable diseases such as HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, and diarrheal disease cause some 9 million deaths worldwide each year.
This is why I'm personally not that worried about Ebola striking me or my family here in the eastern US at this time. Nor would I be overly worried in Dallas, where the first two US-soil cases of Ebola command national attention. The odds of getting infected at this point are very low at the individual level.
The Longer-Term Risk
However, I do think that the reaction to Ebola, which could include ex- and inter-US travel bans and other economically and socially disruptive practices could be another matter altogether at this moment in time. While there is a small, but non-zero, chance that this Ebola strain could morph into something more virulent, there is a very good chance of a more Draconian government response developing.
In Part 2: Prudent Precautions To Take Now, we dive into not only what damage to our civil liberties and livelihood these heavy-handed and poorly executed government responses are likely to be, but we also address the actions that individuals can take today on important questions like:
- Who is at risk of infection in the current ebola outbreak?
- What's the likelihood the current strain will morph into a more virulent form?
- What are the best steps to take today to reduce your vulnerability to a pandemic?
What Ebola reminds us of is that when a true pandemic arrives it will travel much faster than those in the past (thanks to air travel being an order of magnitude faster than dawning recognition) and that our complex, highly leveraged, just-in-time global economy is utterly unprepared for even a minor glitch in the flow of goods let alone the virtual lockdown that a true pandemic would require.
A small amount of preparing can make you much less vulnerable should (when?) that comes to pass.
Click here to access Part 2 of this report (free executive summary; enrollment required for full access)
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YOu should be so worried that you and your children all dress up as Ebolites for trick or treat night.
Listen.
Ease up on Chris. Take what you want, leave what you don't.
But this type of criticism is only warranted if you allow me to critic your "Guest Posts" and you know how I can get, sometimes...
Your fear is palpable. Let's get calm for a few.
Does Ebola have an IPO in the works? Need to get in on the ground floor.
There is no evidence that the tiny few cases will result in piles of bodies being burned outside in hospital parking lots and nat'l guard armories.
The Vehicle Occupant Fatalities vs. Ebola Fatalities discussion is of limited use as it's only correct when looking for a single day.
Over longer time periods the comparison is invalid, as vehicle fatalities cannot cause other vehicle drivers to have fatal accidents, over bigger time distances.
Article totally ignores separate strain of Ebola in the Congo where 68 got infected and 41 died. That is much higher death rate.
As of Oct 10 2014, the latest outbreak had afflicted 8,376 and killed 4,024 -- a mortality rate of 48%
He's a fool that's not how the death rate is calculated. His error exist becuase the number of cases currently living and in treatment skews the results. i.e. if they watched the disposition of all current patient plus total current deaths the CFR case fatality rate is 70%. WHO says so too.
you are wise
Imagine that 1 million have it but only 10,000 have died. 80% of those million will die in a few months, but if you ran a death rate you would conclude it is only 1%
Diseases, quite dangerous diseases that were all but eradicated diseases are now flooding into Texas. Don't get all hung up on this. Those other diseases are spreading into your gov't schools being forced by the Federal Gov't to 'educate' anyone who walks in and don't you dare ask where they're from or face the US DOJ/Civil Rights Division along with the US Dept of Ed, Civil Rights Division. Pleeeazzzze, you will take what comes and won't do jack.
Ebola Bowl final score:
Piles of burning bodies to stop spread > up
Piles of HazMat suites gathering dust > down
Oooh oooh oooh Martenson mentioned my fear of the 405 versus ebola. The other reason I'm not as worried is because Putin has already offered a vaccine and others are in trials. So you have a tiny portion of the population spreading the disease and many ways of combating that spread. But I think the 50-70% mortality rate is due to the 21 day lag. in other words you only have to wait 21 days until the 50% is 100% of what it was 21 days prior. One clean sweep of the planet may leave 50% of the population living and the other half dead. The other problem is who would want to survive it with huge testicles the rest of their life. And then there is the critical mass that causes social systems to break down. That may mean that only 3% - 5% of the population could shut the system down which would allow the virus to spread faster and cause people with medical needs to die. What would happen when 20% of the population can't get their psyche meds. And so on and so forth.
ok..so now we know the enemy..ebola..and we can't cure it or stop ourselves from throwing up and crapping ourselves, so it is going to spread..maybe this year is the test and in five years or ten years comes the real thing.
what do we know?
flying in and out of an infection..sorry..infected country will spread the infection..so ..we will let that keep happening, cos after all the economic consequences of trade ceasing in the infected area is far more important than 150 million or 200 million american deaths.
second, a disease has got stuff all to do with CDC, DHS ..or the Fed.. like a virulent diseases gives a flying (airborne transmission) fuck about federal rules when it can multiply wherever dirst vomit and faeces occur...which is pretty well anywhere
third...we will spend a proportion of our GDP to stop ourselves from dying. but right now, nobody is fucking in the streets or drinking a bottle of vodka tonight, or speeding at 140 mph becasue they think they are going to be dead tomorrow..
stats on domestic violence ending in brutalization of women and men are still 1,000 times per day more significant than the incidence of ebola vicitims.
but aside from that..each H5N1 or ebola outbreak, is another little taunt from nature that shit happens and you should enjoy the day you are given..since shit happens and you sometimes ummm die..
Nuthin to worry about.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUYbGrKU_bw#t=126
Non English speaking black guys always sweat profusely while puking on airplanes.
I have never said this before, but LISTEN UP if you live in the USA.
According to the post below, the primary ports of entry from West Africa are Atlanta, Baltimore, Houston, Miami and NYC, with significant West African immigrants living in NYC/NJ/Philadelphia, DC/VA/West VA/MD, and Minneapolis/St. Paul.
http://blog.sermo.com/2014/08/11/ebola-update-us-cities-most-at-risk-for...
Note that Dallas is NOT LISTED. If you live in the cities or regions listed above, please pay more attention to Ebola news! I'm a member of this community, and I'm sincerely concerned about you. Also, if you live in or near domestic hubs, such as Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, Minneapolis....or to a lesser extent Denver, Phoenix, LAX, SFO, or SEA...I just ask that you stay aware and make an intelligent decision for you and your family. Good luck.
Boston has a significant community as well, per media.
Just stay home and get drunk. My husband assures me that this will work. Oh, I forgot the stay drunk part. Very important. OMG, had to edit after eading Humble Mans comment; I live near SFO. Definitely gonna stay drunk.
I've run my own trials and can vouch for the efficacy of this course of action.
When I start seeing states using a virus as an excuse to clamp down on civil liberties, I get a bit suspicious. The ramping up of the fear factor makes me suspect we're being screwed with psychologically.
After all, the bankers wouldn't get blamed for a financial collapse if it were to occur in the middle of a viral outbreak. So, ask yourself one question: Who benefits?
As others have pointed out, he is flawed in his death rate. Then non-chalantly acts like a 40% deathrate is no big deal. Meh..
Crappy analysis, and as this virus replicates, and grows and expands, we will watch the wreckage of the world order, and mutation of society as the fabric of our country and world societies are shredded....
It's not the current number of deaths that's worisome, it's the rate that it's spreading. I've seen multiple reports that infections are doubling every 3-4 weeks. Assuming there's currently only 15,000 people in the world that are infected, it will take between 14 and 19 months to infect all 7 billion people. We have to take this seriously.
It doubles every 20 days, and every time the data is updated that timeframe holds.
I would prefer a break in the trendline.
This will cause huge issues long, LONG, before even one million have it.
As of Oct 10 2014, the latest outbreak had afflicted 8,376 and killed 4,024 -- a mortality rate of 48%.
That assumes that all people who are currently sick with Ebola will recover. Not a good assumption.
No, it assumes that all those who were afflicted were identified (which is horse-shit - the 8376 only counts those who were afflicted, presented themselves for diagnosis, and were diagnosed postiive). In other words, it excludes those who were infected but remained asymptomatic, plus those who were infected, became symptomatic and refused to self-report. These are 'Rumsfeld numbers' - unknown unknowns.
So the mortality rate is those who were identified as symptomatic, who died. Without knowing more abouot rates of self-reportage, and rates of recovery without symptoms, it is not possible to make declarative statements about the mortality rate of the disease.
People should be far more aware of "Gell-Mann Amnesia" (a term coined by Michale Crichton when discussing the shallow dilettante treatment of complex subjects by journalists): it applies double or triple - at least - to bureaucracies.
Khorasan flopped as the "scare the proles into submission" meme du jour , so the sociopathic vermin decided to confect another scare... along the lines of SARS, Chikungunya, H1N1, grippe aviare, and so forth.
Only a 50% mort rate?
Thanks Tyler.
Most comforting to know it's not 80%, or that ebola is hard to spread like I was told repeatedly by my government.
People need to stop panicking n' shit.
Just keep that nasty shit away from me- period.
"We believe there is scientific and epidemiologic evidence that Ebola virus has the potential to be transmitted via infectious aerosol particles both near and at a distance from infected patients, which means that healthcare workers should be wearing respirators, not facemasks."
University of Minnesota, the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP)
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/09/commentary-health-wor...
Obbamma has unleashed /legalized Homosexual marrriage & Drug abuse legal
Nature has unleased Ebola
Listen what nature says...
You pleased from the A$$
Now bleed from the A$$
We are all gonna die
We are all gonna die
We are all gonna die
We are all gonna die
PREDICTION (also a mortal lock): The incubation period in the US is going to be much shorter than it is in Africa.
Why? Because the controlling factor for the virus to show symptoms is the level of selenium we have in our cells. The Ebola virus has eight receptors. When those receptors aren't met with enough selenium, the cell bursts.
Africans - especially the poor ones whose crops benefit from composting - have more selenium in their cells than do Americans. Our soil is selenium poor due to a lack of compositing.
You're going to see this disease spread so fast you'll bleed out of your eyes. So will your family members.
Here is how to protect yourself to actually absorb whatever selenium you might ingest.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/article/20141003223018-17610704-got-ebola...
No. 80-90% death rate. That simple division of deaths-to-date / infections-to-date understates the rate because so many new people catch the virus every week.
The low infection rate + the rapid learning about how to handle the infection that is taking place around the world will control the disease. That process is exponential also, is still a bit behind the virus here in the US, far behind in Africa.
If everyone has the discipline to never leave home when they have a fever, we can establish Ebola-Free zones. Hospitals only need one more level of triage in front of the ER to separate out possible-Ebola, and the Japanese have a rapid test for it. So we won't have transmission in hospital settings.
Interesting article Mr Durden.
But I struggle to see how any government could possibly contain this.
20 contracting the disease... yes
200 contracting the disease... yes
2000 contracting the disease... possibly
20000 contracting the disease....probably not
200000 contracting the diseae....unlikley
2000000 contracting the disease.....no
It looks like it's going to be down to the numbers unfortunately
It turns out that there is a vaccine against Ebola. Pentagon scientists were developing it for 30 years, and all the rights for the drug belong to the government of the United States. Two infected US medics received injections of the vaccine and they started recovering from the disease immediately. Why has this been made public only now?
Why is it that the USA holds all the rights for the use of the vaccine?There can be two most obvious answers to these questions.As one can see, Ebola is a perfect biological weapon: it spreads quickly and gives nearly 100% mortality rate. Those having the life-saving vaccine can dictate any conditions to others.
The second answer is a purely commercial interest. It is enough to arrange panic with the help of the media, as it was the case with several epidemics before, such as avian flu. Afterwards, it will be possible to sell the life-saving medicine at any price.
However, Russian scientists doubt that the Americans created the medicine indeed. Russian scientists also conducted the research to study the nature of the virus to be able to create the vaccine against it. Soviet scientists, for example, Professor Alexander Butenko, was a member of the joint Soviet-Guinean expedition in 1982 and spent nearly a year in the rain forests of Guinea, when the then unknown virus was discovered.
Strategy of Biological WarfareOn Dec. 10, 1974, the U.S. National Security Council under Henry Kissinger completed a classified 200-page study, “National Security Study Memorandum 200: Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for U.S. Security and Overseas Interests.” The study falsely claimed that population growth in the so-called Lesser Developed Countries (LDCs) was a grave threat to U.S. national security. Adopted as official policy in November 1975 by President Gerald Ford, NSSM 200 outlined a covert plan to reduce population growth in those countries through birth control, and also, implicitly, war and famine. Brent Scowcroft, who had by then replaced Kissinger as National Security Adviser (the same post Scowcroft was to hold in the Bush administration), was put in charge of implementing the plan. CIA Director George Bush was ordered to assist Scowcroft, as were the secretaries of state, treasury, defense, and agriculture.
EBOLA Biological Warfare – Is India Prepared ?You've spammed the same shit in half a dozen places in the last few minutes.
What Soviet-Guinean expedition in 1982 discovered the then unknown virus in the rain forests of Guinea?
What two infected US medics received injections some vaccine and they started recovering from ebola immediately?
You're like a Nigerian scammer peddling poorly written, factually challenged doom porn for the gullible.
Phew!!! Only a 50-70% mortality rate. I was beginning to think this might be dangerous if contracted. Now I feel much better. Just give me some Nyquil and have a hazmatted coroner pick up my remains in the morning.
What this episode really tells me is nothing new. If the government is involved, stay away and don't trust anything they say. Sadly, CDC is every bit as incompetent as is every other department in the US government. They have no protocol, but to the protocol that says to lie about the existence of a protocol till they can figure out a protocol they can roll out later. I bet CDC employees, like every other government employee, spends their day scanning for porn.
Ebola virus is so small (0.8-1 um x 0.08 um) that it can be spread even by the smallest droplets produced by a human breathing, talking, coughing, sneezing (smallest respiratory droplets are 5 um or smaller).
In this sense it absolutely is possible to be infected by droplets via air, and in addition the virus stays infectious for upto 90 minutes on surfaces. Anyone denying this is lying.
Hunch, I will deny it. The virus stays infectious on surfaces for much longer than 90 minutes.
Michael Prescott argues that practices and attitudes and conditions in Africa that promote the spread of Ebola are much rarer here, and that our medical system is much better:
http://michaelprescott.typepad.com/michael_prescotts_blog/2014/10/panic-...
I don't know shinola about ebola, so I'm not gonna guess how bad this will/can get in the USA. That said, I'm confident that whatever additional controls over the population that the government implements (to "save us") will be with us looooooonnng after ebola is an unpleasant memory.
Symptoms read like a typical big pharma cover your ass disclaimer
Similar symptoms as the flu. Perfect. Flu-season coming up. Wach out for double infection flubola patients... That should provide for an easily transmittable double whammy.
******
Ebola: Texas hospital says it's deeply sorry
White House shifts into crisis mode on Ebola…
Latest
http://tersee.com/#!q=ebola&t=text
This is a BIG W T F. If it takes 21 days to start showing symptoms, how come the two nurses had the fever in such a short time. Sure wasn't 21 days. As for Obama hugging on the nurses. Too bad it wasn't a male nurse and Barry didin't take one up the ass for the team just to see how quickly bodily fluid transfer transmission takes place.
Within the window. Thomas Duncan was exposed to Ebola from this pregnant neighbor the 16th of September. He arrived in Dallas TX, the 20th. He first began showing symptoms serious enough to seek medical help the 26th, 11 days from exposure. He arrived at the hospital the second time the 28th of September. Given that no one in his immediate family has been reported as infected, not even pressure washer guy, we can make the assumption that the viral load was not high enough for easy contagion until at least the 29th. Unless we are to assume that his adopted family, the pressure washer guy, the ambulance crew and everyone in the emergency room that day is immune. So, we will assume he did not become infectious until the 29th and, until we get more information, let’s assume that Amber Vinson and Nina Phan both treated him starting the 29th.
Nina Phan became symptomatic the 12th of October and Amber Vinson the 13th, giving us 13 ad 14 days respectively.
So we have 11 days (+/- 1) for Thomas Duncan, 13 days (+/- 2 assumed) for Nina Phan and 14 (=/- 2 assumed) for Amber Vinson.
Considering that neither of the nurses have been reported to be vomiting yet, we can make the assumption that they are earlier in the process than Thomas Duncan was the 26th of September. So, let’s assume that Thomas Duncan became febrile 2 days earlier; that gives us 10 days for Thomas Duncan 13 days for Nina and Amber (assuming the saw him the first day). The timeline is a bit off since we do not know for sure when the nurses came into contact with patient zero. If we assume the same 10 day timeline than Duncan, it means that Nina did not come into contact with Duncan until the second and Amber the 3rd of October. 3 and 4 days respectively after the diagnosis and while wearing PPE.
Speaking of the pressure washer guy. Somewhere there is an ebola infested rat lurking in a sewer storm drain.
Over the past 10 years I was involved in taking care of two elderly parents, both of who were immobile due to health issues. I can tell you straight up that dealing with human waste and bodily fluids is a nightmare....throw in vomiting and diarreah on top of it and you've got a real problem on your hands....(no pun intended) I have sat for days in hospital rooms while my parents were in for treatment watching the nurses and how they handle patients without proper protective gear and how careless most of them were. Most of the CNA's were beauty school dropouts if that gives you any indication of professionalism. You can rest assured, once a few more patients start stacking up across the fruited plain,puking and crapping the bed and bleeding out of every orifice....this thing is going to spread like a California brush fire.
All credibility flushed in one article. America is under attack and this Martensen clown is singing a lullaby. back to the old death by car crash crap analogy.
maybe he thinks when that first african baby ate the fruit bat the death rate from ebola was 0%. nothing to worry about!
RE: Morbidity rate
There are 3 known mutations of the Ebola virus, Ebola Zarie, Ebola Reston and Marburg. The morbidity rate for Marburg is Approx. 50%. Ebola Zaire has a morbidity rate of about 63-96%. Ebola Reston is undistingusable from Ebola Zaire under an Electron Microscope. Ebola Reston is transmittalbe through the air, but does not cause symptons in humans. Very deadle to monkeys though. So, talking heads can "Average" or quote other mutations to "Calm" the public. Your not supposed to know the facts, only what talking heads tell you.
im surprised at ZH and just how many cannot see how this is so heavily manipulated by the fear monger society.you see the manipulations in the markets, political scenes, health care, border security (or lack there of), war on drugs, war on terror, war on isis, it's all a fucking play and if you believe this latest BS campaign then i feel sorry for you.
everyone worried about this should just go curl up in a ball and expire, save the rest of us from having to watch you all freak out to death anyway. run screaming in the night if it helps you sleep. lol or call your mommy for suckling.
Why are people worried? It is as easy to cure as any other virus; fast, drink lots of (fluoride/chlorine free) water, take food grade hydrogen peroxide even add nano silver if you are paranoid. Oh, I forgot, people would rather die than fast. Same cure as cancer, nothing new.
With all due respect to Chris Martenson, maybe he ought to stick to peak prosperity, peak oil, Austrian economics, and so forth. There are multiple problems with this article.
1) The number of cases of Ebola includes all positive diagnoses in W. Africa, which includes many people, probably 2-3,000 currently under treatment. They have not yet "survived." So to say that 4000 of 8000 infected have died, may be true. The verdict is still out on 2 or 3 thousand. It is more accurate to say that 4,000 of 6,000 or so have survived.
2) Even this number is only those who have been admitted, tested, and diagnosed, thereby receiving medical care. Thousands have been turned away owing to overcrowding at West African hospitals. No one knows the survival rate for untreated Ebola, but it is certainly not higher than the survival rate for those receiving some care.
3) The vectors of infection in poverty-stricken countries are much more limited actually than vectors in wealthy nations. West Africans are not crowded into offices, airplanes, subways, and rarely into buses. Most illnesses are treated in the home by family, approximating a quarantine. They are not frequently rushed to hospitals in ambulances (which are later used to transport homeless people) and then attended to by 80 healthcare workers who, following CDC guidelines (or lack thereof), are wearing only minimal droplet protection gear.
4) While human waste often enters the ground and can sometimes contaminate ground and surface water in poverty-stricken nations, this tends to be a rather slow process, during which pathogens can often die, and precautions are typically taken such as boiling water and so forth. There are not many "public" toilets. In a wealthy nation, this is quite the opposite. The common and frequent use of rarely sanitized public toilets in communal areas of wealthy nations creates abundant opportunities for a virus to spread.
You suck ass Tyler, a fucking ad.
I'm old and have those symptom most of the time.
Statistics (and statisticians?) ignore viral amplifiers and viral superspreaders.
Ebola can live for 50 days on glass substrate at room temp other substrates 26 days observed by the Journal of Applied Microbiology issn 1364-5072 published 05/11/2010.
Enjoy! :)
QUOTE
CDC: You Can Give—But Can’t Get—Ebola on a Bus October 15, 2014 - 3:26 PMBy Brittany M. Hughes
(CNSNews.com) - Dr. Tom Frieden, director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said during a telephone press briefing Wednesday that you cannot get Ebola by sitting next to someone on a bus, but that infected or exposed persons should not ride public transportation because they could transmit the disease to someone else. UNQUOTE It's hopeless. We're doomed because of lack of clarity. I know what he is saying, but there needs to be ONE OVERRIDING PROTOCOL OF SANITY AND SANITATION, and it needs to be stated not only unequivically but CLEARLY, without obfuscation. EBOLA MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO SPREAD. WHATEVER FACILITATES THAT IS WHAT MUST BE DONE. Conneciticut is protecting its population, so they claim. So, finally, is Texas, so they claim. Anybody else? No? Too bad;home purchases and new home starts, tax collections, etc., likely to be taking a further nosedive in near and maybe not-so-near future. Costs for handling what's looking likely to be a bad epidemic... to the moon. And the reaction will be...surprise. But TPTB will have their war. Just not the on they hoped to get, and it may not turn out so well for them personally.
http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2014-10-15.html
WE'LL TELL YOU HOW DANGEROUS EBOLA IS AFTER THE ELECTION October 15, 2014Hospital beds per 1000 population: http://prosperouswaydown.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/health-hospital-beds-per-1000-population-oecd-2011.png USA: NOT near the top. Those that exist probably entirely not prepared for epidemic,
Good article: http://prosperouswaydown.com/category/authors/odum-posts/
"...an Ebola victim will incubate the virus for a period of up to 21 days before symptoms express." the key phrase here is "up to". The author needs to review the World Health Organization documentation and his Statistics 101 class. The 21 day point expressed in the news media is the number of days it takes 95% of the infected people to become symptomatic (infectious). Depending on which WHO web page you read, a person can become symptomitic in as little as one or two days. Think this is bunk? Look at the timeline from when the Dallas patient was admitted to when our flying nurse friend ran her first fever. Count the days.
The other worrisome part of this statistic is the government only quarentines for 21 days. This means the remaining 5% on the long tail of the bell curve that take a wee bit longer to become symptomatic will be released into the general population...and the cycle starts again.