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Researchers Expect Over 20 US Ebola Cases In Weeks, "You Don't Want To Know Worst Case"
"We have a worst-case scenario, and you don't even want to know," warns Alessandro Vespignani, a researcher creating simulations of infectious disease outbreaks, but there could be as many as two dozen people in the U.S. infected with Ebola by the end of the month. The projections only run through October because it’s too difficult to model what will occur if the pace of the outbreak changes but, as Bloomberg reports, Vespignani warns if the outbreak becomes more widespread in other regions, it "would be like a bad science fiction movie."
Alessandro Vespignani, a Northeastern University professor who runs computer simulations of infectious disease outbreaks warns there could be as many as two dozen people in the U.S. infected with Ebola by the end of the month.
...
The projections only run through October because it’s too difficult to model what will occur if the pace of the outbreak changes in West Africa, where more than 8,900 people have been infected and 4,400 have died, he said. If the outbreak isn’t contained, the numbers could rise significantly.
“If by the end of the year the growth rate hasn’t changed, then the game will be different,” Vespignani said. “It will increase for many other countries.”
The model analyzes disease activity, flight patterns and other factors that can contribute to its spread.
“We have a worst-case scenario, and you don’t even want to know,” Vespignani said. “We could have widespread epidemics in other countries, maybe the Far East. That would be like a bad science fiction movie.”
The worst case would occur if Ebola acquires pandemic status and is no longer contained in West Africa, he said. It would be a catastrophic event, one Vespignani says he is confident won’t happen.
The CDC disagrees...
It’s unlikely that Ebola will ever exceed 20 cases in the U.S. or Europe because of their extensive health care infrastructures, said Ramanan Laxminarayan, director of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy, a non-profit think tank in Washington, D.C. The problem in the developed world will center more on the economic impact, he said.
“The damage is not as much in the number of deaths as much as in the panic it creates and all the disruption it creates in trade and travel,” he said. “It’s important for public health officials to strike a balance between being serious and certainly not creating panic.”
“It’s not going to be like the movie ‘Contagion,’” he said.
And Eli Perencevich, professor of epidemiology at the University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, said average Americans shouldn’t see any risk from the virus outside of the medical community because patients aren’t terribly infectious until the disease peaks...
“There’s a high probability that there will be another person who comes in, no matter what we do, but the risk is in the hospital,” he said in a telephone interview. “As long as people who know they have been exposed to the virus get themselves quickly to the hospital, even after they have started a fever, it should be OK because they aren’t that infectious.”
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Let's hope he is right!
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That...sounds solid.
Where to get and what dose. All I need to know.
Independent health food stores or online.
400 Mcg of selenium is what I would do.
I'd follow the instructions on the fulvic acid. Don't get fulvic minerals. Higher doses of fulvic acid are okay maybe preferred right now, although most people will stir up toxins in their body and temporarily feel bad. Knowing that in advance is helpful.
See.
What's going to happen is people will become exposed to the virus, will start to show symptoms and because they read it on the internet, they are going to take food supplements and just continue with their daily lives.
Right until the point they keel over. This is how exponential functions work.
I don't recommend waiting until one is exposed to the virus. The selenium needs to be there in the body when the Ebola virus exposure occurs.
Once the virus hits, I'd be taking omega-3 fatty acids like crazy. They help to neutralize any and all viruses. It's good to take them beforehand, too. I am. :-)
Yeah... so you came accross the 1950's congressional hearing on mineral depletion of our soils. Ye are just babes, Bob Becks protocol while you can still get it from Sota instuments.... no guarantees of course.
I already have one.
Few people would be willing to wear one of those devices for an hour or two for a month or two. It's just not a workable solution for 99% of the people.
Nor is it necessary to read the 1950's study or the the 1990's study. It's obvious that if you don't use compost to grow your food, the soil will become depleted of trace minerals. Adding a few minerals back doesn't change that.
Uh oh, just as plywood, water, batteries, beer, and toilet paper fly off the shelves when hurricanes approach, now the onions will be in short supply. I think I read where onions are rich in selenium. Gotta get me some.
UNITED STATES
Future home of the Ebolians
Nobody's talking about the status of Duncan's family in Dallas. I wonder why?
Why do YOU think?
I don't see it spreading. We can watch Outbreak on Netflix now, no need to go to Blockbuster to rent and potentially get infected.
"We have a worst-case scenario, and you don't even want to know," warns Alessandro Vespignani, a researcher creating simulations of infectious disease outbreaks, but there could be as many as two dozen people in the U.S. infected with Ebola by the end of the month"
Awwwww, horseshirt!
Fear, fear fear. How well does it sell?
The sky is falling...the sky is falling!
Fark you fear propagandists, and ALL the horse-turd-maggots that help propagate this fear porn. FARK YOU ALL!
Factor in all the people taking Colloidal Silver, Oregano Oil, and Olive oil all mixed together and then tell us how many people that are on this weekly regime get sick, ASSHATASAUROUS!
Hocky-pucs and goldfish farts. That is what is coming out of this arseholes blabbity-ass-mouth. One has to wonder, do they go to fear-porn-propaganda-school to learn how to spew this garbage ca-ca tripe from their open mouths? Gawd! Nuff already. STOP VERBALLY SHATTING OUT THE THE FEAR PARADIGM NOW!
Here is the latest on the obola hoax news channel. You decide.:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWpCD6T5E94
I understand where you are coming from and you are right to warn of panic but sorry.... Oregeno oil isn't going to save you from this shit but good luck to you nonetheless.
very mature link. it kinda summarize the state of you brain, prolly post ebola.
poor boy.
The worse case scenario is if/when Ebola breaks out in some Central American hell hole and rapidly spreads out of control, with a subsequent surge of the infected for the open southern U.S. border that Obama has mandated. With hundreds or even thousands of Ebola-infected Central Americans melting invisibly into the U.S. we've then entered "The Stand" phase for our country.
If/when you see Ebola in Central American then that's the signal to start prepping if you haven't already.
That's when you rotate your selector from safe to semi, and "watch your lane". (GI's Have heard this one)
The wolves are at the door...... bitchez
"Americans shouldn’t see any risk from the virus outside of the medical community" Um, these "medical people" go home you know, and their kids go to school, and their spouses go to work. This is how the CDC is losing credibility, by saying shit like this.
It won't take much to overwhelm Western health services.
A few dozen cases is fine ... but, a few hundred?
I know a couple of people in the business and they are adamant that, if it kicks off, they aren't going near their fucking hospitals.
Whatcha gonna do ... round up doctors, technicians, cleaners and nurses at gun-point?
The system can cope with many things, but it falls apart in the face of FEAR.
Kinda ironic, given that fear is the State's number one manipulative tool .... I mean, ironic to the point that I may just laugh my ass off.
just have to think about annual winter doctor waiting room....
all the cough cough, give a blow in chain...
normal flu, 1 in the family shoot whole rest of family, that mean, if one case mix flu with ebola and go to a single mutiply factor such metro pillar, door handle, any thing, then in a month you have minimum 10k cases on a million city populated, after 2 month, every one is hit.
the problem is this not happening in spring or summer, if fucking happen in winter.
"Center for Disease Communication"
"A male passenger who died after vomiting on a trans-Atlantic flight from Nigeria to New York sparked panic he could be carrying the Ebola virus....
It was what I was told a cursory examination. The Port Authority cops and personnel from Customs and Border Protection were there, and they were told there was no danger because the person did not have Ebola, King said, according to the New York Post. But their concern was, how could you tell so quickly? And what adds to the concern is how wrong the CDC has been over the past few weeks,” King added that personnel from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) boarded the plane after it had landed to examine the body of the passenger, however, he called the whole process “alarming.”
http://rt.com/usa/196696-ebola-newyork-vomiting-plane/
Stop posting this Ebola fear porn, Tyler. Nothing significant will come of this just like SARS, mad cow, swine flu, bird flu, etc.
Dammit Reggie, it is not spreading fast enough!
How about getting a guy on a plane and have him barf on everyone?
Great idea! Then we'll tell everyone he was not sick. Call the airlines, Reg!
On it, Munchkins!
Ebola on cruise ship
Texas health worker isolated on cruise ship
A Texas health worker who may have had contact with specimens from the first patient diagnosed with Ebola in the United States has been isolated on a cruise ship despite showing no symptoms of the disease, the Department of State said on Friday.
http://tersee.com/#!q=ebola&t=text
I have the ability to change my mind when presented with new information. I was swaying away from this being a fake Ebola outbreak, maybe because it was a natural fear for my life to prepare for it as best I can, just incase it was real. However after today I may be swinging my view more towards hoax. I saw a video of the first nurse Pham and she does not look to be suffering from a deadly disease, she is quite perky for what I had imagined in my head a sufferer of Ebola would look like. So when I get an itch for a different prospective I go with it. I decided to look up African forums and blogs to see if they were talking about Ebola, I didn't find many West African sites, So I said fuck it, South African should be atleast talking about this shit. I found about 20 different forums/chats/blogs (feel free to use Google) and you know what, None of them are even talking about Ebola. I will admit when I'm wrong, and I am a pretty flexible person, I realize I may be misinterpreting all this, so decided to do an internet search for ebola victims and what they look like when you have ebola, with so many victims you are bound to see images slip out on the internet. I found videos of heads getting chopped off by Isis, ,I can see lots of Africans being blown to pieces by warlord violence, tons of blown up children from Gaza, but the images I have found after a thorough search for ebola victims are sadly limited, I even was hoping to find old images from past outbreaks with no luck. I know every one will say, then go to Africa and find out, and I agree with that notion and at this rate I really really really wish someone would go to Africa and find out. The nurse Pham video felt like complete propaganda.The gross imcompatence of the CDC, the flights still freely happening, and well you all get the point. I just think I am more open to this being a hoax as of today. However like everyone else we shall see how this plays out.
Sample African sites:
http://www.southafrica.com/forums/
http://forum.skeptic.za.org/conspiracy-theories/?PHPSESSID=9bon2f29i1qsn...
Perky Ebola Nurse:
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/ebola-nurse-nina-p...
look at a fucking map will you. do you kknow where south africa is in relation to the infected area? was there any talk in the usa before ebola landed in atlanta?
I would think by now since the world is apparently talking about Ebola, the last time I looked at the map of Africa it was the same continent? Am I wrong? All one land mass, kinda like I would have been alarmed if I heard Canada or Mexico had and unprecedented outbreak of a Level 4 containment virus! Anyway Instead of insulting my intelligence with map insults, why dont you try to prove me wrong by finding a closer area website and show me? Jesus man I was freakin out a bit when I heard that shit was coming to Atlanta, and it was obviously because I knew about the outbreak in africa already and because I was smart enough to know what Ebola was.
(Edited because I spell a fancy word wrong and didn't want to look too stupid)
Try Ghana- they're closer, speak English, and don't have ebola (yet). Rusty Shorts can probably provide better links since I'm not social media friendly.
http://www.ghanaforum.com/forumdisplay.php/10-Politics-Current-Affairs?s...
Looking at South African website forums to try and get grassroots chatter on Ebola in West Africa betrays a total lack of geographical awareness - it's like reading Chilean forums to try get on-the-ground gossip about what's going on in Monreal, because, you know, they're both in the Americas.
Why would South Africa give a shit about ebola? They're bass ackwards and dumb as shit to begin with. RSA is also extremely low risk vis-a-vis the USSA, EUSSR, and ChiComms, Indians, etc. since overland travel/migration to South Africa from West Africa is isn't going to happen (they are literally worlds apart since there are no nice interstates and superhighways connecting them overland) and air traffic is negligible due to low direct flights and the fact that even the dumbest West African isn't going to fly to some Mecca of healthcare infrastructure and .gov handouts, only to grab a connecting flight to that shithole.
Then there's the African tinfoil hatter problem, which involves an amazing amount of group think and circular logic when it hits the West. The tinfoil hatters in both Africa and developed world have a tendency to think everything is a hoax or conspiracy. So the "normal" West Africans don't think anything ebola at first, and the West African tinfoil hatters specifically think its Witchcraft, Jewcraft, CIAcraft or just a big hoax, which forces the governments and the NGOs to launch all these information and awareness campaigns to overcome inertia, ignorance, and downright lunacy. So as soon as ebola hits the West the American tinfoil hatters, who didn't think anything of ebola moths ago, crawl out from their bomb shelters and look at the West African awareness campaigns and (because everything is a hoax)... if they have launch these campaigns about ebola then ebola must be a haox (because it can't be that the West Africans are just as paranoid and fact-phobic as Westerners). The same mini-cycle/cyclone within the larger shit storm WILL repeat and play out when ebola eventually makes it to South Africa.
There was a South African here at ZH a couple years ago (somewhat peculiar with a particular Rothschild fetish) who could explain the RSA-specific nuances better (and probably that ebola is real but a Rothschild depopulation plot), but I think he bugged out to the Drakensberg. (My African adventures rarely make it that far South except for brief visits to the local banksters when Jamie or György's minions won't open their wallets.)
I grew up in RSA and oddly enough I grew up near the Drakensberg.
I agree that it's low risk there since the country is kind of isolated from West Africa - minimal contact.
Just fyi, South Africa compares to West Africa as Switzerland compares to Honduras. It's a positively first-class place in comparison to the real shitholes like Nigeria, Liberia, Sierra Leone, etc.
In terms of infrastructure and day to day life for the top 20%, South Africa does seem worlds ahead of West Africa (where you certainly picked the rotten lemons for a comparison). But the view out the SUV window in RSA (and the armed driver) make me think the bottom 80% is just as fucked, with the possible exception of a marginal and functioning public healthcare system.
In terms of being ass backwards and dumb as shit (with an extreme dose of paranoia and predilection for tinfoil hats) - that was directed to all of Africa. Even among the RSA empowered- the gamut seems to run from "AIDS is a hoax" to former Health Minster "garlic & beetroot will save you" to President "shower the HIV away"... Blaming lack of education or distrust of government is easy, but it's not entirely accurate, since even the educated and the government are infected. And while the government in the USSA strives ban the tinfoil from uniforms, some of the nutters are quite well educated.
If you grew up in RSA, perhaps you have some insight into why African Moonbat Disease is so much more virulent and endemic than its Western counterpart...
Thank you for the info Urban, I have not been to Africa and do not have first hand experience with it. I chose South Africa only because I figured the money was there for more website and internet activities. The links I found on West African sites seemed to be more of official Gov stuff, I was looking for the local talk, trying to avoid what may have been propaganda sites, it was a shot in the dark. I am an humanist kinda person naturally and still under the delusion that some humans still give a shit about each other, but I'm working on that.
I still only see 10 of the same pics on Ebola victims or examples, they are the same pictures. So for now I am sticking to my opinion we should be seeing more, Bozo or not. If having Ebola looks likes everyone that walks out of the hospital here in the exceptional USA (except Duncan) it looks to me like its not so bad, Nurse Pham seems to be able to smile with it. Sarc/
Someone in Africa with a camera would have had a five dollar bill to offer someone to show a peek of the destruction and devastation uncut by now. Hell for that matter I hear the bodies are piling up in the streets, this is Time Life newsworthy kinda stuff! I know this sounds cold, and I'm not trying to be. I was even thinking for scientific analyses it would be useful to see the stages of virus in a human. It could be as simple as a website I have not found yet.
I think the pause button on YouTube might be the best source for what you are seeking.
The wealthy/elite (and tourists - who are non-existant right now) do have smart phones and internet access (often dial-up that goes out seemingly daily with the electricity) but the selfie/Twitter disease and the need to broadcast every mundane moment of life has not infected the iGadget equipped like it has in the West (dead bodies in the street qualify as mundane, unfortunately) . Nigeria and Ghana have the most tech infrastructure but only Nigeria has seen ebola and even there only a few cases. Another issue might be that it is very impolite (and often dangerous) to be taking pictures in the presence of police and military troops who are often protecting the ebola treatment centers and foreign NGO workers. The riots in West Point were a form of organized social protest, so everyone who had a phone camera or camcorder brought them, and we still only have a handful of pictures and video clips which are endlessly recycled from that event.
Despite what people write on the interwebz the three most infected countries are NOT densely populated, so as long as the infections remain in the thousands (or cumulatively in the low tens of thousands) and largely confined to these three countries- the majority of the dead bodies are going to be inside homes and out of site, or at the front gates of clinics waiting for treatment that isn't available or effective, where people often don't want to be seen taking pictures.
So like I said YouTube might be the best bet, or the Twitter feeds and Facebook pages of foreigner NGO workers who are in country (and still feel the bizarre need to update all their friends back home about they ate for dinner). But like I said earlier, social media isn't my thing so I'm guessing here based what I'd seen long before Ebola showed up in the neighborhood.
A quick google search finds these African blogs on ebola:
http://blog.liberiapastandpresent.org/
http://liberiaandfriends.blogspot.com/
http://ilabliberia.org/blog/
http://www.drogbascountry.com/
http://lindaikeji.blogspot.com/2014/08/nigerian-nurse-dies-of-ebola-viru...
No photos of ebola victims? Don't think ebola is for real? Try these, Bozo:
http://www.nairaland.com/1848781/scary-pictures-ebola-virus-victims
http://ebolavirus2014.com/
main problem for zh idiots requesting flights ban is mainly they do not have business, and they fucking do not know how an entreprise works. if they would, they would never talking about stopping activity because of supposed hillness touching some niggers and making pseudo death for 40%...
when you stop working for 24h and loosing 300-500 million dollars a day to please masse about fear fuck mongering, you not really welcome of beeing in charge for a plane company.
get this ENGRAVED in your fucking sheep brains.
flights = business.
they do not give a fuck about your wealth.
You can do business without personally meeting with people. Make do - because we'll all be in the same boat. My life or your money? Fuck you.
“It’s not going to be like the movie ‘Contagion,’”
More like the movie Outbreak.
With only one black guy or girl surviving, the last hope of humanity.
“As long as people who know they have been exposed to the virus get themselves quickly to the hospital, even after they have started a fever, it should be OK because they aren’t that infectious.”
Ah Yes. This is all fine and good, but one thing I have learned about my fellow americans is that they have an exceptional ability to deny reality and nearly always fall into a panic when it isn't called for.
"I'm feeling feverish today. I think I'll just go into work for a few hours and then head home to watch the ballgame."
"I'm feeling feverish today. But I have to usher at church."
"I'm feeling feverish today. But I wouldn't miss the family reunion."
etc etc etc
fn nurses union! how dare they get in the way of a pandemic! fn unions are useless!
Pandemic brought to you by the monumentally stupid inside the beltway. Obola already wants an ebola czar in order to insulate himself so that he can say "that's not what I said" and sacrifice more people on his throne of political correctness. The man is not fit to serve, period. As for the rest of us, this might just get real.
And precisely who do you think he is serving???
So, if it did not stop at 1 case, why it would stop at 20 cases?
Because our Dear Leader Obumbles said so fellow consumer. Do you question the Dear Leader?
Is it just me? Or does anyone else out there long for the good old days
White Bronco Chases
Anna Nicole Smith
Super Model escaping death in Tsunami
Michael Jackson
Semen stained dresses
and what (or who) is Jennifer Anniston doing these days.?
Does this include U.S. citizens on cruise ships in Belize? A nurse from Dallas, TX and her husband on a cruise to Belize have exhibited ebola-like symptoms and are now in quarantine on a tender. There are 3,700 other passengers on the cruise ship. Let´s hope its just a bad case of norovirus... which infects thousands of cruise-ship vacationers each year and is transmitted mostly through the consumption of raw foods prepared on contaminated surfaces and by touch or contact with an infected person. http://www.webmd.com/children/norovirus-symptoms-and-treatment
My guess is just a bad hangover. Mark my word .. . get drunk, puke. You're fucked and in quarantine. Wait till you get that $ 500K bill. Obama ain't comin to your rescue then.
and one other question. Does every Dallas nurse take a vacation or cruise after they get off work? W T F is up with that. Those bitches need to stay home once in awhile I can hear that cruise ship nurse now calling home "Honey, pack your bags, I just got off a really tough shift cleaning up shit and puke from an ebola guy from Africa. We need to take a cruise. NOW!" Meet ya at the airport."
More like "I booked this vacay MONTHS ago but didn't buy trip insurance so I'll just put innocent people in harms way because, well I deserve this vacation"...
OK.....can anyone think of ANYTHING "good" that ever came out of Africa? (beside the Tarzan movies)
cheap weed, mostly best worldwide, coz natural.
neitherland weed is chemical crap.
OK.....can anyone think of ANYTHING "good" that ever came out of Africa? (beside the Tarzan movies)
First of all, I think ALL incoming flights from ebola infected countries should go to WA DC's Dulles Airport.
Maybe then prez 0bola would ban such flights.
Of course, if he banned these flights the next LOGICAL step would be to SEAL THE BORDERS and that would screw up his amensty bs.
In the first movie Jane's beaver even came out...
@eemie
your ancestors? hm, but cant be good then;)
Just Recieved this.....
VA Ann Arbor Healthcare System Prepares for Ebola
Although the risk of an outbreak in the United States is very low, the 2014 Ebola epidemic is the largest in history, affecting multiple countries in West Africa.
In the United States, one travel-associated case was diagnosed on Sept 30, 2014. Recently, two nurses who provided care for that patient at Texas Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas have also tested positive for Ebola.
The VA Ann Arbor Healthcare System is taking necessary precautions in the unlikely event that any exposed or potentially infected patient or staff member present at the Ann Arbor VA or the Flint, Jackson and Toledo CBOCs.
Locally, we have convened a task force of clinical experts – led by Dr. Suzanne Bradley, our Infection Control Program Director – to ensure the rapid detection and isolation of exposed patients and to minimize exposure to nurses, providers, staff, patients, and visitors in all of our facilities. Screening protocols and staff training have been initiated in the Emergency Department and Primary Care. CBOC clinical staff will be trained tomorrow and we will fully implement the recommendations of the Task Force in the coming days to include additional staff training.
We have included the informational links below as a resource for you to learn more about Ebola and the ongoing Outbreak in West Africa and beyond. We will also be providing regular updates through emails, our INTRANET SITE, and social media to keep you fully informed of our efforts. Please talk to your supervisor if you have any questions or concerns about Ebola or any other Infectious Disease issue.
Thank you for your efforts in providing high-quality, Veteran-centered care to America’s heroes and know that we are taking necessary precautions to ensure the safety and well-being of our Veterans, staff and community.
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/
pls, can cdc wait until end of walking dead S05 so we can learn a lil more about self defense ?
It’s unlikely that Ebola will ever exceed 20 cases in the U.S. or Europe because of their extensive health care infrastructures, said Ramanan Laxminarayan
A simple assumption backed by nothing at all. He has no idea the state of affairs at any hospital or clinic. Simply assuming your "system" is up to snuff will get a great number of people killed. Trust but verify applies to much more than international relations. In the case of ebola you actually need a written and rehearsed plan that is above all things adaptable to a changing situation. The best thing that can come of this will be the shunning of anything big gub'ment tries to do and hopefully big gub'ment itself.
but gwyneth paltrow dies in 'contagion'...please let it be like 'contagion'
I predict ebola will spread widely & rapidly in USA for 3 reasons:
1. Ebola will spread widely & rapidly in Latin America because it is hyper-overpolulated destitute, incompetent & corrupt. Latin Americas have unrestricted entry to USA.
2. USA willl be the GO-TO destination for everyone in human shithole countries who believe they have been infected with ebola.
3. USA politicians are immoral, incompetent & corrupt and will not lock out ANY invaders, eg economic, disease-infested, criminal, etc.
You have seen what happens in USA when just a few are infected with ebola, just extrapolate what will happen to healthcare system & economy when ONLY 100 or 1000 infected invaders emerge.
Remember that you are not helpless! Take charge of your health by boosting your immune system to help it fight pathogens and keep you healthy. How? Avoid the sick, stay rested, drink clean water, wash your hands, take a vitamin C supplement and drink a powerful anti-viral wellness tea on the daily! (Here's one http://www.soulvibrance.com/herbal-tea-blends/antiviral-wellness). We can take charge of our own health even in the face of this potential threat!