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According To Goldman, This Is Why China's GDP Was Better Than Expected (Spoiler Alert: Weather)
It is now beyond ridiculous.
Recall yesterday we reported that according to Japan's Economy Minister, Akira Amari, who over the weekend went full economic retard - rather than face reality that Abenomics currency devaluation printfest has crushed the consumer beyond all expectations, he blamed the weather for economic weakness: "including the effects of large typhoons and heavy rains in July and August, Japan’s 3Q economic situation is probably not a strong recovery."
Of course, it is not his fault: he is merely piggybacking on what the US did in early 2014 when it blamed the collapse in China's credit expansion which reverberated across the globe, crushing US GDP on "snow in the winter."
And since everyone had been wrong about Q1 GDP (not to mention Treasury yields) and was thus willing to look the other way and "accept" a grossly ridiculous explanation (because only idiots would believe that $100 billion in potential GDP was wiped out as a result of several winter storms) over fears that they too be exposed as grossly incompetent pattern-chasing penguins, blaming the weather stuck as the excuse for everything that happened since January which was somewhat unexpected, and for which the true explanation, namely that there is no global recovery, was just too unpalatable.
So fast forward to last night, when instead of the much hoped for Chinese GDP drop - because it would certainly unleash the greatly delayed Chinese liquidity firehose so hoped for by all the BTFDers who need at least once central bailout per day to keep up the charade - China reported GDP which beat expectations, leading to many sad faces on Wall Street, and forcing Reuters to leak the infamous ECB buying corporate bonds article, since refuted, which served as the overnight ramping catalyst.
So what is the "explanation" for this unpleasant, for once, economic beat? Why, the weather of course! From Goldman"
3Q GDP data was better than our and market expectations. The seasonally adjusted, non-annualized qoq growth calculated by the NBS showed a modest slowdown from 2.0% to 1.9% while our estimate of qoq annualized growth accelerated from 6.9% to 8.5%.
September IP growth surprised the market on the upside and was mostly in line with our forecast. Among IP components, electricity production increased to 4.1% yoy, from -2.2% yoy in August. Cement production fell to -2.2% yoy, from 3.0% yoy in August.
We believe the rebound was mainly because of the disappearance of the temperature distortion which could have lowered August IP by 1 ppt or more , see EM Macro Daily - China: Cool weather likely contributed to weak August activity growth, Oct 9, 2014.
Ah, the new normal, where every time central planning fails one can, and always does, just blame the weather. Because it is not reality.xls that is wrong. It is reality itself that is at fault.
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You can't even see the sun in Bejing during the day, WTF?
These people are just incredible. They have segmented and drilled down to what really drives GDP. The temperature. /sarc/
Fuck off Goldman/everybody who believes that weather is like a new iPhone. Same shit repackaged.
"In China we eat dim sum, then everything ok."
I wonder what economists did before we had weather? I can only imagine...... musta been difficult and all.
Yes this is true... "Wether" you believe their BS lies or not. If this is the case, well, then it is true.
Everybody knows you never go full retard:
http://youtu.be/oAKG-kbKeIo
You went full retard.
US Citizen, Press TV reporter dead in car crash near Syria 2 days after Turkey calls her a spy http://wtfrly.com/2014/10/20/us-citizen-press-tv-reporter-dead-in-car-cr...
that's why they get paid the big bucks. well that, and being a world killing vampire squid.
The only phrase you need to know to be an economist is "post hoc ergo propter hoc."
This was their Press Piece. Wonder what their real internal memo said?
japan in recession
europe (very) likely entering recession
US at doorstep of recession
no way china gets out unscathed
And people thought that the Vodoo and Witch Doctors were crazy.
Goldman is a mpnkey with a dartboard if they aren't squidding/rigging the market and ten there's a 50/50 chance they're publishing the opposite.
TPC's pick of the week... Magic Leap Inc.
google in for half a bill, super smart and savvy ceo... Sundar Pichai joining the board - heavy duty investors and tech people...
But perhaps I'm merely reciting the obvious.
Ebola!!!!
Who knew climate change could have such an impact on economic output! Government is gonna need a really big tax to make this right.
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