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VIX Has Never Done This Before... Ever
Never, in the history of VIX - the so-called 'fear-index' - has this ever happened before...
The last 3 days have seen VIX drop 12.74%, 15.55%, and 13.4% today... VIX has NEVER dropped more than 10% for 3 days in a row ever
h/t @RyanDetrick
And here is VIX today - does that look in any way normal or efficient to you!!??
* * *
And then there's this from last week - As Nanex shows, S&P 500 e-mini futures liquidity dropped to the lowest ever...
Connected? Who knows...
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You may be ashamed but you're still short!
Do you have an inside track to be 55% short and close the books for a year?
I think you're invited to cocktail parties at 33 Wall.
I applaud your honesty.
What does these drop mean for the market? Can anyone explain this to me?
It's a message from TPTB: "remain calm, everything is under control, there is no volatility but permitted volatility. DO NOT SELL. REPEAT: DO NOT SELL."
The scary thing is I'm actually not being very sarcastic here.
Yeah, not at all actually.
So the drop represents market is very unstable, and if ViX raise it represent the market not stable? Am I correct here? Just doesn't make sense.
Low VIX = stable market (ie low volatility), High VIX = high volatility.
So they're gaming the market to dive VIX low to make it appear that there's low volatility and things are stable.
In the real world low VIX would mean just that, but in this la-la world, you're seeing the VIX go from a high to a low rapidly. The real world doesn't work that way, which is why we know the VIX is being gamed to make it appear better than it really is.
All you really need to know is that there is massive, hundreds-of-billions level intervention in all markets to make things appear to be better than they really are. Pick your market, index, or indicator, it's being artificially manipulated.
All you really need to know is that there is massive, hundreds-of-billions level intervention in all markets to make things appear to be better than they really are. Pick your market, index, or indicator, it's being artificially manipulated.
Very, very true. To make matters worse, the economists are out there in force re-writing history and trying to convince us of correlations between the stock market and a healthy economy that do not exist.
Study and research paper after another--and revisionist history--is at work everywhere. The wheels are spinning so fast this machine is in serious trouble.
Let's just say that Yellen and her fucking central bankers can continue to pump this market up without impunity. At what point do the questions about real solvency get so perrvasive that someone has to answer? Someone's currency comes into question? Trade gets questioned? The value of payments get questioned?
Everything has an end to it. EVERYTHING. This market cannot be pumped up infinitely because something "real" has to come out the other end. What is that going to be?
Thanks seek for clarifying this, I'm a engineer by trade so I'm not family with financial market definition and terms but hoping to pickup some of this on ZH.
This is a fairly good place to learn, though unfortunately a lot of the hardcore trader types that were here 5 years ago have given up and moved on.
Given the engineering mindset, a lot of this stuff will drive you crazy now, because of the manipulation. Things that used to have extremely high correlations (USD down, gold up, for example) no longer do because of the financial engineering happening. So you'll see a lot of stories/posts about bizarro-world activities where things go against their correlation, or changes in reported data that are six-sigma events (IIRC a few years ago Tyler had a story on an 8-sigma deviation in something.)
A lot of the frustration here is that nothing is working the way it should -- so it's no surprise your comment about VIX not making any sense. It doesn't, when it should.
...hardcore trader types... Gone, yes, perhaps they just got stopped out and died at the side of the road someplace... broke and inconsolable. But, hey, maybe they got stinkin' rich and left the dregs like us for greener pastures and good times on their yachts. Who knows.
As for the VIX, it's a derivative thingy anyhow. It's not like some J6P is slaving over a hot drill press making something useful that we can all see and feel. How do we figger out if they just changed the rules on how it's calculated and the result is as shown in the graphs above? If you're losing, just fix the rules of the game in your favor. Wouldn't be the first time.
some of us are still here. just don't have much to say. use to trade /es like i was marlin fishing. i'm in cash, israeli bonds, antiques, some real estate, metals and investment gemstones. i still watch all the markets, bond, currency, world equities, etc. but they do not correlate like they did for decades. since 2009 it has been a bullshit freakshow so i watch it and dabble in a few things.
the thing is, i thought i knew all the things you wish to know, turns out i dont' know anything.
Same amateur boat. So I read and read. For years.
But if you look at the gist of the charts kindly presented...and reference an earlier article today where some markets were halted. (with VIX related bets highlighted as unavailable)...Then look at the chart again. Note the point where there was a halt (higher VIX) and then how it tumbled in blocks. Does not take an engineer to see does it?
So down down down the "perceived volatility index" went. Like Joni Mitchell said "down, down down the dark ladder"
This is highly suspect and desperate IMHO.
Joni Mitchell:
"Come with me
I know the way" she says
"It's down, down, down the dark ladder
Do you want to contact somebody first
Leave someone a letter
You can come now
Or you can come later"
A wristwatch, a ring, a downstairs screamer
Edgy-black cracks of the sky
"Pin cushion prick fix this poor bad dreamer"
"Money" cold shadows reply
Pawnshops crisscrossed and padlocked
Corridors spit on prayers and pleas
Sparks fly up from sweet fire
Black soot of lady release
Central command at NSA controls in and out trading signals under the logic of "national security"
There is no market. Listen to me.
Congress and White House killed the market to simply let bank lobby derivatives live another day.
There is no way out, none.
Market drop is not possible, only cratering is possible.
Agreed.
Try to have paid-off land and hope existing property ownership rights remain in tact.
Or
Get portable wealth and rent something on Greenland or Iceland or Paraguay.
http://nypost.com/2014/10/20/plunge-protection-behind-markets-sudden-rec...
Central Command goes main stream.
Same journalist who had BLS fudging data leak, John Crudele
todays zh brought to you by: pulte, prudential, blackrock (x5), capital one (x5), etrade, h. clinton, boa (x5).
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/10/goldman-makes-it-official-that-th...
That is what happens when the market perceives a 5% percent floor on any financial asset purchases. At least for now, tail risk is gone.
buy buy buy!
When you truly smell DESPERATION in the air, buy XIV...up 20.72% in the last FIVE days!!!!
Does the FED use $VIX to move the market? From 11/2011 to 7/2014 the XIV (inverse VIX) was up 800%!!
Since they are once again pumping down the VIX, what do you think is next? We've seen this movie before...getting worse than JAWS 14.
at least we know the new level the ppt will defend
I mainly trade SVXY because it has stayed in a perfect upward sloping channel for 3 years. It broke way below the channel last week and it is now bouncing up to the bottom of the old channel. I think the central banks lost control of the markets last week, along with oil, and are desparately trying to bring the markets back up. It took 3 months in 2011 to sort this mess out before the markets could move back up again. Beware out there.
Hopefully this is showing its getting harder for the manipulators to keep the shitshow going.
VIX drops: Ebola relief rally.
After a week of excursions and a 200 Dow point day no real "volatility index" could be low.
It's a statistical artifact, and of course it came right off Janet's spreadsheet.
Isn't there some derivative that takes the trailing average of the RMS values or something?
Me and my beers are going to the beach.
When do we get ice cream?
The S&P is up 60 points in the past two trading days and 90 points if you count Friday. This is someone with his finger on a button ramping the S&P. It's amazing that more people don't question these ridiculous ramp sessions that see no pull backs. The market is up because the ECB is going to step in and continue QE after the fed exits. The fed learned from its prior mistakes and decided to hand off the QE potato to the ECB to cover for the wind down of the federal reserve program.
This is starting to get scary. This kind of fuckery wouldn't happen unless there was something huge on the line.
The end of the financial system as we know it has been on the line since 2008 (or even 1987 if you believe some of the things recently said in retrospectives.)
All it takes is a little wake up call to TPTB about this fact and you get a massive re-assert control freakout from them.
+1 Well Said. I think ZHers should take time to contemplate, when you get month ranges in the matter of days, records/extremes not seen in years, and BALANTENT MARKET BREAKDOWNS then you know its a big moment.
Something huge? Possibly the end game?
And by the way, "fuckery" is a most excellent word.
+1 Most excellent indeed.
Supersonic stock boom coming, female cnbc anchors will flash tits.
History will not look upon the sheeple kindly in the future - just as we wondered how Hitler was able to destroy the world so to speak while the world watched- history will judge us poorly, ignorant, greedy - rightfully so
The Bank of International Settlement in Basel, Switzerland, Brown Brothers Harriman, the Dulles Brothers, and Union Bank (Prescott Bush) laundered the loot for the Krauts all the way through Operation Market Garden late in the war.
sarc/off
They will never let this crash before Dear Leader is out. If another progressive is elected it will not crash then either.
What happunt the last time it never ever did this?
The Fed paniced today and they bought the S&P and Dow.
Look at all the big boy stocks at absolutely peak earnings: IBM, INTC, KO, MCD, AAPL and any I might have missed.
Now the S&P futures has a parabola to it's shape on the upward trend. So you had Fed buying in combination with short covering. Since the Fed buying futures can't actually make people buy stocks they can only make shorts cover as soon as the covering is done it'll go right back down.
Aside from this I moved my 401K today from global bonds into the S&P500 not because I think it'll go up but becaues I don't want treasuries and euro bonds more than I don't want the S&P. My 401K doesn't give me a choice to be in cash.
Jesus, if you don't have at least one money market option, pull the out of the plan! Fuck the "match" if you get one. You are looking at a near certain chance SPX will be much lower 10 years from now.
I did pull out. A loan from the plan which will ceratinly pay for itself. I get to trade the pulled out plan. :-)
Good show. My next suggestion was to drain it with a loan.
Just rmember you can't short what the Fed will protect and that's any DOW or S&P500 stock it seems.
The money market option is not necessarily safe either:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-23/gates-are-closing-sec-votes-thr...
http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB122169845959750475
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_market_fund#Breaking_the_buck
FEAR is not working any more
Yipppppeeeeee.... were immune to it
its true ... i'm not scared of FA
See, this time IS different!
Where's the Horseshit Index at? Through the roof.
Ask Fred FlintsCohen
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-20/meat-farcestones
FED software maybe eh?
Arrest Loyd Blankfein.
Someone sells so they just pull the plug, and keep repeating the electric shock therapy until the thought to sell by human life forms is forgotten about
...and the new gold standard is $1250 and silver fix is $17.50 and not a penny higher. Probably an agreement to big U.S. debt holders so they can cash out strong. Then after every oz is drained and every mine goes bankrupt they can buy those for pennies too. It's exactly what I would do if I could print unlimited amounts of the World Reserve Currecny. Sort of like Oceans 11 when when Clooney and Pitt were stealing everything from Andy Garcia but the live video surveilance was pre-recorded to display a quiet full vault. It's a pretty simple concept really.
China, Russia and several other billion people may have something to say about that plan, ya think?
And now came back to edit. Yeah. But do not count on it to remain at those levels after it is all nicely cornered. Far as Reserve Sellout goes. Over a barrel. So maybe so. Move all the assets to the creditors. Mines get sold at pennies on the dollar. But eventually you still have the IOU that was used to engineer the situation.
IOU ?
Thats what I've been saying on bankrupt the miners, run them into the ground, buy em up for pennies on the dollar then ramp pm's.
Fukkin Crooks.
Has everything become a charade or has everything been a charade and I’m just starting to notice it’s a charade…
I can’t tell anymore…
The GM recalls & Pope really did it… “For the first time in 600 years! The Sistine Chapel now offers private parties! Boo-Ya”
The VIX longer plots a sine wave and is morphing into a square wave. LOL
Pegged currencies also plot square waves.
I have been drinking gin and tonics for months (because I worship the Queen). and in my humble observations I have been quietly having a "sanity questioning moment" or two.
Cheers.
The veils are falling. Now what?
The market never does the exact same thing twice.
except than it does
Today was Tuesday .
Did we all forget ?
Unless there is a new easy money starting in November...every day the FED is tightennig to zero QE.
These disturbances of the farce are to be expected, but for how long ?
QE has been happening for 100 years. It will never end.
I thought it would take all week for the ES and NQ to get here. I have no idea what happens next, so I'm gonna take off until the Fed and get as far away from a computer as I can.
I'd like to get short gold and silver from higher prices on or after Fed day if they act right. I still think stocks could be in trouble post Fed but we'll see how far they get and what the reaction is. Maybe Draghi QE changes that temporarily. One more down day in the Euro and it could be picking up speed again.
Good luck.
Oh yeah and to prove it's not rigged. BRK-B is up. LOL
(Opens door...) HELLO! Whew! It's dark in here. Are there any regulators in here? Any at all? Hello...?
By my count, that's abnormal event #1289 in the New Normal.
There has never been a completely government-controlled market before in the U.S.
There has never been a completely banker-controlled government before in the US
Epic economic recovery
THe Bernanke Fed said flat out... "they target the vix", he should have said we are owning it.
Its the new normal "all clear" signal.
In the land of lies, all things are lies.
The Plunge Protection Team not even bothering to hide their work......public masturbation by TPTB.....just turn away and believe their lies....if you don't look at the scan your cancer is gone, everything will be just fine.....
Do I get my billion dollar gift when the VIX hits 0? Or does it have to go negative?
Maybe this time really IS different-in a bad way.
To answer the question: I don't know if that is normal because I never look at Vix charts.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp
It takes a bit for us non-finance types to get the \sarc. Slowly, slowly I'm learning to see just how bizarre these markets really are.
What is clear enough is that the masters of this financial world are ready to commit murder and go to war to preserve the illusion of normality - which is all that's holding their house of cards together.
The Federal Reserve uses money printing to buy:
1.) US treasury debt.
2.) Stock indexes.
3.) Mortgage debt.
Since they own everything else all they need to do now is print money for the treasury so they can give everyone $50,000 and we would have all the inflation they could ever ask for.
The Federal Reserve should just print $18 trillion and pay off the US deficit. Make it on huge board game with monopoly money.
I dare say we file a Global class-action lawsuit against Japan for the Fukushima ding. 50K apiece sounds good to me.
“Pay or die mofo.”
Everyone, please calm down and breath easy. These United States are blessed with unbelievable prosperity. Enough, in fact to keep everyone away from wars and poverty. We are destined to achieve the best, brightest most brilliant beehive every made. We are very close to being our own God.
Skip posting here at Zero Hedge for 1 week, I ask. Just 1 week and allow the true awareness of utter destiny and a harvesting of good souls lift your spirits where the eagle dare go.
Poco buzzing like a bee....
Where'd you buy those brownies you're eating? I need to get me some of those!
'In Dreams' -- Roy Orbison. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPqZs7Vl_xg
Harvesting of good souls?
That sounds genocidal.
No Worries! Obolo and crew will change the formula for VIX and Happy Days will be here again!
Because, everyday, is FREE Money day, at the Fed!
when you know the fed has your back -- the perception is that there is no risk
What Does It All Mean Basil?
All your VIX are ours.
All your VIX are belong to us.
There, fixed it for you. :-)
Test run on the VIX for the demise of the Euro.
That is all.
Does it matter?
To say the market is rigged is an understatement. After over 30 years of trading commodities I will flat out state without any reservations that lies and manipulation run rampant. This is a rigged game that has come straight out of Hell!
An unholy alliance of the Federal Reserve, the government, and the too big to fail has left the rest of us in a precarious position. For the big boys, its insider information and computer trading, this includes computing patterns that exploit where stops are placed, this improves their ability to wash the weak out of their positions. The bottom-line is that the higher the market goes the more vulnerable it becomes to a major collapse and sudden downward move. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/07/markets-more-lies-and-munipulation.html
Nothing like that period before, when records are set all over the spectrum for highest fastest sharpest never-ever-befores mostest leastest. It makes it very interesting to look away for micro seconds and wonder what is not going to be recognizable anymore. It's like Breaking Bad hits the markets in industrial doeses, and any day could see any thing hit the fan. the curse of interesting times indeed.....
ENOUGH with the Negative waves, man !!!
You tell 'em Oddball !
LOL who's gives a fuck...if you need to talk bullshit hit the bloomy headlines with talk of QE...need QE...need language that is always promising and fruitful.. Lie about data...sparse words to find dovish language..have trillions in debt 6 years now after lax lending creating the end of all things...be aware that central banks buy stocks, be ES, buy indexes, buy etfs, use the media to promote your story , increase the debt limit, Increase war spending to where we are back with a Cold War with Russia and relentlessly lie about BLS data just to keep markets mildly going up because we buy our own debt to the tune of a few comumless algos doing all the ping pong work FOR 6 mother fucking non existent years or mark to market and Basel rule delays and false Dodd Frank bills that promote the falsity we have addressed this thievery...and you still want to be long into the belief that these fucks will save you when their only track record is failure...be my guest....
It took only 3 days of selling and the oral garbage came....it's all they have...be short..get shorter...stay short...because volume never lies...
The free market is out there...it cannot be bargained with not reasoned with...it can be distorted temporarily...but the free market terminator is out there and it will not stop until it find fair value...and all the central banks can do is stave off the inevitable....
Totally off-topic and I apologize upfront for that, but this has been 'stickin in my craw' all day.
So, I was half-listening to cnbc this morning as I was getting ready for work and they were discussing the microsoft miss and how much they love <or hate> the new Iphone thingie and Kernan and Sorkin were sparring as usual and <good gawd it makes me sick> they went there with the loose analogy of whose dick is bigger <hedgers know neither of them have a dick, so measuring is useless>.
Anyways. so Sorkin actually says and I won't quote, but loosely paraphrase "So, maybe one day we will get to the place where our phones can read our minds and then we won't need keyboards"
ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME ??
Is he <and those like him> so willing to become a part of the collective ... the 'borg' <credit Star Trek>
Scared the 'bejesus' outta me!!
There are those who do not like to work at anything and if they could give up part of their brain to make life 'easier' they will.
I often hear people say they are too 'busy' with one thing or another and later I observe that most of the time in the evening they are watching tv or on social media. :)
Work is a good thing, provides something to do, gives us a feeling of purpose and accomplishment and a way to put a roof over our heads and food.
Many who have not worked in awhile and use every excuse in the book for not working have lives I couldn't live, doing nothing all day except for watching the boob tube.
In all things there should be a balance, but for many it is tilting to far one way or another.
The guard is on steroidal Hopium..
Fukashema, Ebola, ISIL, Obama, insider trading, so many Traders, so many triggers. So little VIX.
yes it has
yes it has
Last night the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all retraced closing the gap,formed on the way down, and stopped on the 61.8% retracement level.
It will be interesting to see if Europe follows through or we see a top. CAC40 is just short of a similar retracement so may see an intraday high.
We all will wait to see in a few hours.
VIX measures uncertainty .
Passwords create uncertainty
"Halt! Who goes there !"
"Ebola"
"Ebola who ?"
"Ebola Rumpelstiltskin , daughter of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rumpelstiltskin ."
"Who's that ?"
"I have come to collect on your promises ."
"Is RumpDump the password ?"
"I don't know . This might take some serious time ."
https://www.academia.edu/8897094/Passwords_to_Babel
still calling tops ? :)))
An old girlfriend thought the -en on VIX was sexist .
This is for old memories.
We used to go jogging together .
I needed this then , but did not know it .
https://www.academia.edu/8899526/How_to_run_faster_and_why_
SO what? If I flip a coin 10 times in a row, and do this over and over there will come a time when I do 8 or 9 or 10 heads in a row. I will never have done that before. Yet probability indicates that given enough occurences, it will happen. The VIX has been around how long? 10 years, 15 years? How many times has it fallen > 10% in that time? How many times has it fallen > 10% for, say 3 days out of 10? The fact that this happens in a row is meaningless in this context. The interesting part would be the total % move from low to high, and high to low, and the time frame involved in each.
Efficient market behavior...........thats all folks!
that's what my date said last night before I nailed her up the cheeks
Wow, what a lady's man. I bet they keep coming back for more, huh?
http://www.stayfitbuzz.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Fat-girls.jpg
Well, the Plunge Protection Team is hard as work with this one.
It's nice to see that the Plunge Protection Team is hard at work.