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WTF Chart Du Jour: The Broken Market Fallacy
UPDATE: And then this happened...
As every good Keynesian 'knows', broken-windows are good for the economy; so that must mean that 'broken markets' are good for the... markets?
Having started to fade after the opening ramp, since the NYSE broke, stocks have levitated linearly...
...driven by a surge in XIV (the inverse VIX ETF, which was among the 150 symbols that 'broke' today)...
As Stocks decouple from any fun-durr-mental carry driver...
As well as Bonds and credit markets' perspective on 'recovery' and ECB rumors...
and equity volume is well below average... (again)
* * *
Why anyone would trust this shambles of a US equity "market" anymore...?
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Not it!
I calculate the VWAP for the entire period between options expiration. ES has moved back to the VWAP for last month's period.
I trust this shambles of a US equity market.
Really I do.
Don't you?
:-)
(heh, heh, heh)
All your doomsday crap and the markets are bullish!! WTF I sold my GILD at $95 and its at $105. You basturds! I knew i should have followed my instincts. Zero H is right 1% of the time. blahhhhhh blahhhhhh blahhhhh
Is Fibonacci telling you to buy this Rally? Beause $105 turns into $86 really quick.
Perhaps you should ask for a refund of your monthly subscription to ZH.
ZH is the inverse LarryKudlow/Bob Doll analysis, i.e., it is a permabear.... ;)
Instead, how 'bout you follow those PINKO COMMIE FASCISTS you so lavishly worship? Loser!
my neighbor's half-sister makes $71 hourly on the laptop . She has been fired from work for 9 months but last month her paycheck was $17975 just working on the laptop for a few hours. look at this site... www.job-reports.com
FOMC meets next week
why should/would "market" go down?
QE will end ... but A LOT of tender "rates will stay low till the apocalypse" will soothe the pain
yer, QE ends but PPT on full blast
so wheeere does the PPT get the moula from? Oh, ok, can only be moar QE on the sly. Still - rupert murdoch can tell everyone its totally different and buy another year or 2 of market confidence
Armstrong says this:
"The Dow closed higher with an inside day. The turning points this week seem to be Wednesday (minor) and Friday (main). A reaction high this week still points to a lower low perhaps for the week of November 3rd. It appears that the Phase Transition in stocks will be postponed into the downside of the ECM. This is a reflection of the bubble that is unfolding in debt. This looks like the BIG BANG we targeted for 2016 is unfolding as we first scheduled back in 1985."
We scheduled '2016 crash' back in 1985.....yea sure.
I'm calling a crash right here and now for the 2nd Tuesday of May in 2085. If it doesn't crash by then I'll buy you a lunch.
Sounds good. I predicted in May 2085 world daily oil production will be 250,000 barrels.
soothsaying is quite profitable these days...everyone knows where we are headed but no one knows when we will arrive....except Armstrong. But he can only tell us in a decimal language of his own invention that does not translate well to the Gregorian calendar.
I think you're confused by the bling bling there, Mr T. That was indeed a 31 year interval, not not in normal terms. I suspect you are not a subscriber to the Gartman market letter. If you were, you'd consider that perhaps Dennis was short that market for the event, but the event interval was on dog years terms. 31/7 would have put you Dennis short around 1990.
Would you trust anyone who told you that Bob spelled backwards is not Bob. They think the lower case b will do the trick.
Let me repeat this again:
Central Command at NSA controls all signals in and out and can override digits on computers misleadingly known as 'financial markets'.
There is no market. NYSE etc is no different from Sony Playstation network, centrally managed.
That is why world has reduced REAL TRADE with USA and is avoiding faster and faster USD for real trade.
The financial system is no longer pricing real trade.
And they are not hiding that they are centrally managing the system. No conspiracy here at all
Here it is, they are telling to us they are centrally controlling the system
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/04/28/exclusive_meet_the_secr...
As long as this continues, economy will collapse further, wars will expand and assassinations which started yesterday will continue
WASHINGTON, October 10, 2014 – Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to see a final surge and set a new monthly record in October as the holiday season approaches, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
https://nrf.com/media/press-releases/retail-imports-set-new-record-final...
:-)
You actually believe that?
China's costs have skyrocketed. China's trade surplus has shrunk
Who is providing those goods?
Now tell me again, you actually believe official data?
you have a better source?
2014 imports higher thru first 8 months of year than in 2012 and 2013
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/...
China's biggest export customer is europe ... europe (likely) entering recession ... look there for china's trade woes
Another fake source
Yes, I have a better source.
Real income is 23% lower
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/11/us-usa-mayors-jobs-idUSKBN0GB1...
you sure Reuters is a better source???
btw, what you make of the Total CEO death...sounds suspicious to say the least....when are the heads of the greedy evil bastards start rolling???
It's not reuters.
Treasury receipts cannot be hidden. Proffessionals can do reverse calculations and come up with real wage data.
In my view: He was killed. Assassinations just started
Are you suggesting that wages matter?
/s
:-)
You need income to import stuff? That's not what Dr. Krugman said.
XIV, VXX, and TVIX are oscillating 10-20% per day.
What say you ZH people? Where do I put my money right now. Give me a good solid prediction for the next 24 hours. Inside that time, if you are right, you will make 10-20% in a single day. Day after day for what, two weeks now. Just have to know which way the wind is about to blow.
buy a lottery ticket instead. Your odds of making money are better.
jj - doncha know.. yet? You just buy...sheesh....get with the feckin program.
Stick it up your ass. That way you won't lose it.
This isn't an advice source but I'll give that one to you for free.
So, any ideas out there about which hedge fund have up the ghost last week?
I believe Milton Friedman already disproved this broken windows crap with his statement regarding digging holes and immediately filling them back in.
Now, the only way to make that better would be to throw Krugman in the hole before filling it back up.
Ebola fear trade getting killed.
That would be "fear of a financial Ebola." Ten million can still die but that's not the point.
The point is to create fear which generates churn which in turn....
I don't even know anyone concerned with 'markets' anymore, they're just playing rigged poker with themselves here. For example, last week when the so-called markets were diving, I asked around about how the stawks were doing lately and none of them even knew.
Economics 4 Dummies Too
The sustainable disposable income bubble is 4. With insufficient disposable income, you cannot discount; too much and you don’t pay attention. Decrease your rent and increase your income, in that order, as necessary. Continue until you can keep $5k in your pocket, +/- inventory turnover.
The empire is a loss-leader. Money working for you is a lie. Those employing it for you must make a greater return just to stay in business, and you already have enough mouths to feed, which means that all the promises are false. The grandparents now choking their spoiled grandchildren gave everything to the middlemen, who cannot change their printing habit despite demographic bust.
As an old-timer with an extra car and an extra house in inventory, who doesn’t care to support the ‘bankster’ class, I am going to discount price to industrious young people in my community, because their labor will incrementally increase both my income and NPV multiplier in the back end of the economic cycle, which solves the economic mobility problem.
The majority is going to the car dealer, the bank, and the government, working in the middle. There is a balance between the top down and bottom up economies, which is lost with increasing monetary surveillance, and the top chokes off its own supply, assuming that power resides in the global city, with majority vote, among people who cannot feed themselves.
A bank hiring a moron to watch a computer-controlled box feed 250,000 chickens next to the Chesapeake is not a sustainable economy, but that is precisely what the stock market depends upon, critters who think that technology solves problems, and voila, it sheds critters into poverty, globally, which are educated to complain and do nothing.
War doesn’t work, so, from time to time, during which time the feudalists are always at war, with remote control, you make an example of war. You can tell your kids once and be done with it, or plead with your juveniles everyday, and then release them on the world.
The net present value of your wealth depends upon confidence in your grandchildren to produce wealth in the future. That is economics.
Everything else, bank arbitrarily inflating rent and government arbitrarily deflating income, arbitrarily controlling the means of production, to provide for everyone else, because you failed to do so, is politics. Of course the majority makes religion of politics and calls the result science, in a self-fulfilling prophesy. Stupid is self-adjusting.
You and your spouse have five children, and the rest of your community is a homosexual couple, a heterosexual couple with one child, and a single adult. How do you suppose the majority of adults are going to vote, to educate your children? Who do you suppose is going to be the bad guy, the teacher, the cop and the banker?
The empire depends upon your production and identifies you as a threat. Playing the victim empowers the empire. The empire’s entitled grandparents and spoiled grandchildren are the problemsolution.
What you see in the telescope is an illusion of time. Don’t make decisions based upon an illusion. The span of humanity is insignificant relative to the universe, except that which is timeless. The only thing inevitable about empire is stupidity, chasing its own tail.
Property without labor, slavery, is an illusion of time. That is what the Founding Fathers said, as they proceeded to rebuild the illusion. The critters wake up when their turn comes to go over the cliff, and the politicians get recycled. Surprise.
Betting money, which is arbitrary, on an arbitrary theory, assumption or myth, is one thing; betting your life is another. One technology is just the dress rehearsal for the next, and science, based upon statistical assumption, can only be a game of last to lose. Bet on people, with experience, thinking before they are pressed to act.
Selling bonds on artificially created crisis is as old as finance, and finance is war. That kid isn’t sitting in the back of class, by the exit, until disappearing, by accident. The Governor is welcome to issue, and buy back just as many bonds as he likes, with lost purchasing power, until income inequality blows up the position.
In summary, I am glad I went long local balck markets and sharecropping. Useless paper-pishing middlemen will sign their own death warrants, eventually.
"Why anyone would trust this shambles of a US equity "market" anymore...?"
Silly question. If you have a fast computer and the Fed at your back, there is a lot of money to be made. Look at the last several days. There is no risk now, is there.
You have outstanding Pinko Commie Reasoning skillls. You are the 'Good' sheep the elite take such delight in. Fool.
US Citizen, Press TV reporter dead in car crash near Syria 2 days after Turkey calls her a spy
http://wtfrly.com/2014/10/20/us-citizen-press-tv-reporter-dead-in-car-cr...
the invisable hand job
Injecting 200 Billion a quarter into a waterballoon is going to cause leaks sometimes.
ZeroHedge, is that you?
‘Plunge protection’ behind market’s sudden recovery
http://nypost.com/2014/10/20/plunge-protection-behind-markets-sudden-rec...
What happened to the uber bear call by some schmuck (whose name I can't pronounce, let alone spell) that stated with "great confidence' the SPX would not break above its 200 day MA?
BTW, Gartman's a fool, but for ZH to belittle someone when it has itself so spectacularly wrongly called the markets is a bit, well, rich.
yep, ZH was wrong as were many others - who would have traded on fuck the earnings and fuck the revenue and factored POMO into their positions and analysis??
not defending ZH - just think its a shit show out there - S&P up 120 points in four days - after S&P fell 150 points in 5 days
instructing yellen to fuck off and die or to eat shit, or to rot in hell would be more appropriate. pick one, or use them all - your choice.
Nobody makes any money around here, it seems. Just snarky comments and snarky advice. Doom porn and that's it. I guess it's fun, but ZH suffers from a common online problem... Trolls and dummy accounts flooding an unmoderated board. I guess ZH just doesn't give any fucks at all. On a long enough timeline, anyone will be right. But day-to-day, garbage in garbage out commentary. Buy gold buy silver, oh you lost 50% in two years good job. Dudes around here just rubbing coins on their nippies all day. Actionable items? Maybe once in a hundred posts something decent, otherwise just the same circle jerk day in day out.
Tyler - why not make a public virtual fund and create your own momo space with willing lemmings all jumping over the edge. Then use your actual money to Gartman your own fund. Can probably create a mini-Goldman type fund and laugh at the idiots who come here. All twelve of them.
Meanwhile ... US Air Force supplying IS-terrorists with boxes full of granades.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOuPX6z50EM
You want a prediction - when the sheeple stop buying coke and big macs, the economy is headed down.