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Why It Better Not Snow This Winter, In One Chart
"The U.S. is, for better or worse, the growth engine of the world economy right now"
- Adolfo Laurenti, chief international economist for Mesirow Financial in Chicago.
It will be the plotline of scary stories parents tell their children for decades to come: in Q1 2014, the US economy was supposed to grow 3%... and then it snowed. This led to a -2% collapse in the world's largest economy. Yes, inconceivably heavy snowfall (in the winter), and frigid temperatures (in the winter), were the reason for a $100+ billion swing in US GDP. Well, as the following chart from DB's Torsten Slok shows, of the roughly $2 trillion in GDP the global economy is expected to grow in 2015, about 90% of that is expected to come from China and the US!
And while we reserve judgment for what the ongoing housing slide in China may mean for global growth (recall "the aggregate exposure of China’s financial system to the property market is likely to be as much as 80% of GDP" which means about 70% for the upside in global GDP), we don know one thing: it better not snow in the US this winter.
In fact, with a global economy set to grow only in a priced to perfection US and Chinese environment, the weather better not deviate from the norm by more than 1 degree on any given day or else the global economic recovery gets it.
Ok fine, no snow. But is it realistic to assume a tri-coupling: namely a break of China and the US from the rest of the world? That answer is up to the reader, but as Goldman shows, aside from snow, in a world in which Europe has now unofficially entered a triple-dip recession and Japan has admitted that Abenomics has failed...
- YAMAMOTO:WAS MISCALCULATION TO EXPECT WEAK YEN TO BOOST EXPORTS
... just as we explained over the weekend, the US economy has numerous pitfalls to avoid if there is to be no US, and thus, global recession in the coming year. Here is what the WSJ said on the issue overnight:
“The U.S. for now is growing on its own, but it cannot grow on its own in the medium to long term,” said Eugenio Aleman, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. “We will need some help from the rest of the world.”
In addition to the external threats posed by China and Europe, the U.S. is contending with a host of others: new volatility in stock markets; falling commodity prices; and declining output and demand in big emerging markets like Brazil. That’s on top of political tensions in Russia and Ukraine and jitters over the Ebola virus.
“The U.S. is, for better or worse, the growth engine of the world economy right now,” said Adolfo Laurenti, chief international economist for Mesirow Financial in Chicago. “But with many other regions not performing, we may have some limit to how much momentum we can gain.”
The bottom line:
Economists doubt the U.S. can dodge all harm if the weaknesses overseas mount, creating the potential for a negative feedback loop of soft growth. Emerging economies, not the U.S., drove global growth for much of the last decade. Now, many of those markets—Brazil, Russia and South Africa, for example—are slumping and relying on the U.S. for growth. Together, they represent a global economy that isn’t firing on all cylinders.
But snow or no snow, here once again from Goldman, is a chart of all the upcoming likely scapegoats which will be used by pundits to "explain" why, once again, the US rebound is set disappoint.
Exhibit 1
From Goldman:
As shown in Exhibit 1, the simulation implies that the 0.3pp cut to our global GDP forecasts since July--which equates to almost a 0.5pp cut to the non-US forecast--should shave less than 0.1pp from US growth in 2015 through the end of 2016. Admittedly, the impact grows once we include the appreciation of the US dollar, which is also partly due to the weakness of global growth. However, the impact diminishes again once we include the drop in oil prices and the decline in bond yields, both of which are likewise partially due to the weakness in global growth. The overall impact from including all of the recent changes in growth forecasts and financial market moves is a 0.1pp hit to US growth, assuming we see a reversal of the recent equity and credit market weakness, as projected by our strategists and as partially realized over the past few trading days
Bottom line: while lower rates and oil prices are set to boost US growth, these will be more than offset by the global slowdown and stronger dollar headwinds. But the biggest intangible: weaker equity and credit markets. Because just as the relentless Fed pump of the S&P managed to give the impression that things in the economy are improving, so any sharp, and ongoing, selloff in risk is sure to hold and in fact, reverse, any so-called recovery. Which is also why, as Carl Icahn explained it succinctly last night, "The Fed Turned This Market Around Here."
Now, about that GDP weather forecast...
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Global warming will fix this problem.
Just be thankful the Fed can communicate that it is balmy when the mercury goes below 0 degrees F and there are 2 foot long icicles hanging from the eaves.
No snow, no water.
“The U.S. for now is growing on its own, but it cannot grow on its own in the medium to long term,” said Eugenio Aleman, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. “We will need some help from the rest of the world.”
The U.S. is a CHILD, you see. it cannot continue to grow ON IT'S OWN. It takes a VILLAGE (of idiots) to raise a child (who's an idiot).
"No snow, no water."
Rainfall is a thing of the PAST, I suppose. Don't DARE to dig a well looking for water, either. All you'll get is fracking waste. St. Algore the Beautified PROMISED the world that SNOWFALL will SOON be a THING OF THE PAST, so the 'economy' is set to grow (for the helpless United States).
WTF is a 'Eugenio Aleman'? An Spanish-Itralian derivitave for 'Gene', and a surname that means 'GERMANY' in SPANISH? 'Gene Germany'? Is this fucker from BRAZIL, or ARGENTINA? ARGENTINA, probably. Fascism and totalitarian socialism are alive and well. The prodigal son of Il Duche and Der Furher seems to be all grown up now, and working for...WELLS FARGO.
They STRIVE for the 'lowest common denominator' (everyone but THEM DEAD) by any means that they can muster. The REST OF THE WORLD comes to gut the meat and eat the flesh and break the bones of the former Republic (via 'Open Borders'), and the FED pushes the 'GLOBALIZATION' of the 'ECONOMY'; and some foreign JACKWEED that works for a FORMERLY-U.S. bank comes to the FORE and states the fucking AGENDA OPENLY (as well as the way that the Illuminati think and consider the former U.S. to be; only in the minds of the Powers That 'Want To Be'). 'GENE GERMANY' is a mid-lower level LACKEY. The controllers of the banks and the politicians don't have to get their hands dirty by dealing with day-to-day operations. Fucking 17th degree or so (it depends on which version of the Illuminati that you join up with, I suppose).
Go back and work on your fucking 'financial charts'. MAKE an EVER-INCREASING PROFIT for your MASTERS. You'll get the crumbs from the master's table (until he decides that you have served your purpose, and are no longer a benefit; due to HIS 'profit-loss' charts).
'NO SNOW, NO WATER'.
That's kind of simplistically STUPID; your statement is.
When Hurricane Katrina suddenly (?) changed course and hit New Orleans in 2005, there wasn't any SNOW. Plenty of WATER, though.
Sorry,
I assumed most ZH'ers were smart enough to realize most water (rivers) comes from snowmelt.
....and,
The Katrina water was sea water/contaminated.
Not good for plants or human consumption.
Our growth is all military, the Chinese growth is all junk.
in europe all the growth lies within asyl.
One more mouth for the taxpayers to feed is another consumer for the corporations to sell to, and they come in millions!
It will be a sad day for the bankers when enough people come to realize why everyone is always focused on growth.
pods
Sweden spends the equivalent of half the entire Russian military budget on it's so called " asylum seekers". Becoming the flop house of the Nordic nations comes at a price I suppose.
It's time to launch the "War on Junk"!
I SAW what you did there!
http://www.themodelships.com/chinese_junk.html
Markets dont perform so well in hot climates either.
true! Nobody ever talks about deficits or market crashes on the north pole!
Wait till Putin digs some holes up there.
Well, for the US to have a nice warm winter, the weather gods will have to freeze asia, which can be done certainly, and why not, since russians (unlike the us) will ADMIT they nuked the artic seas, causing all that fresh water that .......... well, that is secret, unless you know science enough, bottom line, they deserve cold, since they participated in causeing ....http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/nuclear-activities-in-the-arctic-...
well besides the ocean currents, there IS the wobbles. http://www.livescience.com/6937-ice-ages-blamed-tilted-earth.html
Siberia has early coldness...
if you know what you are looking at here, this speaks volumes, http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag442.html
but to warm you up, http://www.margaritaville.tv/player?mc_id=747
BUT...
THEY said EBOLA does well in colder climates as well.
You didn't hear it from ME, but if you check the latest, the CDC (Inc.) and 'shit' stated this for MSM consumption. It seems that this 12th generation of EBOLA can 'become' 'aeresolized' at temperatures 'below 45 degrees farenheight', and it seems to have a 'much higher survival rate' as well.
We never forget. We cannot forgive.
ANONYMOUS OPSEC
it will...
did you pay your global warming tax already?
just asking...
it's for the dolphins without opposable thumbs you know... those poor bastards need your help...
China manufactures things. What does America manufacture to justify this GDP? Derivatives? War? Paper? Give me a break.
The US manufactures government and incompetence. They are used interchangeably. But hey, they are growing so the GDP (Government Dependent Population) will be up again this year.
Yellen orders the weather to behave. Details at 11.
<A happy Yellen is a happy banking clan.>
CD, I'm in amazement that you would associate our esteemed bankers with such a word as "clan", it having that negative connotation left over from the civil rights movement and all.
So in my feeble, drug and alcohol stained mind, should we start a new civil rights movement and demand the Bill of Rights be applied equally without regards to social or economic status?
I say we start marching now!!
DaddyO
Actually I was thinking of the Hatfield's and the McCoy's when I used 'clan' but Klu Klux works as well.
You are playing the role of the sultry bitch, CD.
As a person who's Great Grand-Uncle was a Grand Wizard, I can ASSURE YOU that the spelling is 'KU KLUX', NOT 'klu klux'.
They, too, started off as an 'ANTI-CLAN' grassroots organisation.
The current example of their quick and sure takeover and ownership might be compared to a group called 'The Hell's Angels'. A bunch of displaced WWII American fighter pilots decided to start a club that used the Harley-Davidson motorcycles to take tours of the nation that they supposedly 'defended'; but in the 1950's, the C.I.A. got ahold of them and hijacked their club; their purpose, and their faith. SURE, SOME fought back, but were terminated (usually with 'extreme prejudice').
The Hatfields and the McCoys were simply a bunch of inbred wanna-be pussiified men. Still are, as a matter of fact.
When I think about it I touch myself.
I touch myself.
You are dating yourself. http://youtu.be/wv-34w8kGPM
Want to feel really old? She passed away last year.
probably one of the coldest and nastiest winters in a very, very long time is going to hit the northern hemisphere this winter.
stock up on what will you need now to get you through it if you live in bad winter areas, because it's just around the corner.
And it won't just be this winter that will be exceptionally bad. We're entering a long planetary cold cycle that could last up to 30 years...
If you think food is expensive now, how about with long, harsh winters and shorter growing seasons???
One cord up, one to go.
Just two? OMG.....our wood stove boiler eats that for breakfast. :-)
Sounds like you need a rocket stove. Hat tip to whoever here linked to Permies. Really like it.
http://www.permies.com/forums/f-125/rocket-stoves
I love chaos.
But Obama told me the world is getting warmer! How can we have winter?! Can't he stop it? It might help his golf game.*
*I was joking, nothing can help his golf game.
And we will remain the growth economy as the government takes over more and more of the economy with Obola care and entitlement programs then manufactures the numbers monthly to prove how well they are doing.
Looks like someone has a plan after the elections
Card Consumables - Federal Business Opportunities: Opportunities
4 million Permanent Resident and Employment Authorization cards per year...but they are requiring RFIDs so maybe these will be replacement cards.
Wouldn't be shocked at this point if we all are eventually required to have RFID Employment Authorization cards.
REALLY?!?
Well, slap me SILLY and call me HILLARY!
UM...
WELL, DUH!
Run faster
https://www.academia.edu/8899526/How_to_run_faster_and_why_
I'm still traumatized from LAST winter.
but what about the snowshovel ready jobs if it won't snow???
Then you can plant some more green shoots.
Drone delivery weather advisory cable channel.
The weather personnel can report on how many MIA packages never made there final destination. Gieco can offer a new string of insurance policies.
Snow interferes with your PC/tablet/phone when ordering products online.
/ sarc. The silly fucks still think we believe their bullshit.
Can't wait for a drone to crash into a snow drift or be taken down by hailstones.
today's forecast includes a skittles storm
if this happens, jump your unicorn and get to the highland
one deer in the freezer,,, more to come,,,, peace in the autumn woods,,,, empty commercial,, industrial,, and residential properties everywhere here in Rahm ville. Two foreclosures in my neighborhood this week. One tax eviction and all their property thrown out on the street,,,,,, Best of times,, worst of times huh? God I hate seeing people thrown out on the street. Truth be told most Americans are a major illness or one year job loss from being in the same boat. My wife just needed surgery to reattach the main tendon to her thumb. Snapped and retracted while making the bed,,, pulling the sheets snug,, go figure,,,
no insurance,,, no Obama care,, downsized from a 22 year positon,,, out of pocket out patient surgery,,, we are in the 6k range if all goes well with follow up,,,, does anyone owe me free surgery? Nope. Would Obama care cover it? I don't care. I have paid my way since I was 18 and will continue but there is an ill wind blowing in this country. There are different worlds. Blind sheeple,,,,, I was in a home the other day on a sales call, the kitchen in this house was bigger than my living, dining and family room combined. Hell it might have been bigger than the footprint of the main floor of my house. Same day,,,, later,,, I was in south chicago,,, every fourth house,, burned out ,, boarded up,,, only good thing,,, with the cooler weather I don't need to Carry Concealed as the natives don't congregate like the summer months.
Hope you can feed your families for 3 months or more with what you have in your homes right now. Look up,,, look out,,, enjoy the sun,,, enjoy the kids or grandkids,,, one day,,, this country,,, will cross a line,,,, that there will be no turning back from,,, it is approaching,,, there is an ill wind blowing,,,,
Yep. Bad decisions + bad luck snowball faster now.
My brother lost his job over tardiness due to his entanglement with another crazy woman (bad decision). Then his car had an expensive breakdown (bad luck). So no job to get money to fix the car and no car to get/commute to a job.
Racked up a couple of high-ish months of water bills due to broken plumbing that he didn't have money to repair. Water turned off, collects rain water, gets some from neighbors. But the city posts a notice on the front door -no water service, no occupancy, pay or get evicted.
I chipped in what I could as did my mom. He begged/borrowed/or stole the rest...don't know.
But in the opinion of the city it would be better for him to be homeless and lose everything he owns than to live in a house without water service, nevermind that the house is clean and sanitary.
I know a number of folks just on the edge of this kind of thing. A few of them used to be 6-figurish salary types. My how fast the '90's went.
I love this
The wet summer thingy.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/agribusiness-and-food/surprise-decline-in-beer-sales-for-brewer-heineken-1.1972592
Northern Europeans with purchasing power and not exposed to health fascism will always drink beer.
The Irish will drink beer in dry or wet weather regardless.
But they ain't. (it was a great summer in Ireland)
All available energy must be put into the machines.
Well this is a forecast so it may well be that growth appears where it is least expected next year, but the bottom line is that by now we should all realize that government "stimulus" doesn't stimulate anything. If your economy is uncompetitive, all it ends up doing is pushing on a string. There's vast numbers of potential new consumers in the world. There's no reason the world economy should be mired in economic stagnation. The problem is too few producers in the developed (consumption focused) economies, and too few consumers in the developing (production focused) economies, none of which are ready to take on the US's traditional role as engine of the world economy. The question is, are we smart enough to realize this and jettison the "you didn't build that" economic agenda and get the US producers back to work creating economic growth and allow the US to resume that role? Maybe not as all I see is people blaming free trade, not free stuff for non-producers as being the root of our economic problems.
any stock in folklore? The doe I shot last week had the thickest layer of fat stored up for winter I have seen on a deer since 1979. If anyone recalls the midwest winter that year,,, we maybe will see if folkllore holds any truth or not. This deer had over two inches of fat on hips and back,,,, huge fat layer,,,, get ready folks. Snow blowers in good repair may be wise,,,, good day all
Don't know, but my fave theory on worldwide increasing obesity is that the human race is unconsciously preparing for massive famine.
GMO, pesticides, herbicides, plastics, depleted soils, chemicals that act as hormones, etc. are more likely though.
Ya, the fact that most people work at desks or basically sedentary jobs instead of out in the fields - as was the norm just 120 years ago - and the fact that people's wealth has skyrocketed through the 20th century so they can afford more to eat and the fact that hyper-scared mommies won't let kids just play without adult supervision anymore or even walk to a friend's house and the fact that many schools won't let kids play ball games (or even tag!) in the schoolyard so kids don't get exercise - those are not important to the obesity issue. Let's blame it on corporations!
Venison is yummy. Hail to the leaf eating, bark chewing vegans who hate beef.
Are you referring to the vegans of the two legged variety, or the four legged ones that provided the venison?
That Nor'easter winter of '78 was a corker.
Read all about it in the sunny climes of Orange County, California.
Closed airports, freeways, and Nat'l Guard hauling popsicle people out of cars and houses.
Ok,
Who predicted this growth in the first place?
That's your biggest fly in the ointment.
Wecome to the new and improved "Downsizing America".
"Where the Govt. keeps spending more so you can spend less"
Catchy little slogan, no?
This summer near Lake Superior was one of the coldest (…34 degree night in July) and wettest on record. Locals told me prepare for snow and cold this winter…
Eboler Vortex?
iphone 7 and 8 and 9 should take care of growth in the US and China
maybe we can eat the iphone 10 +++
Should be interesting to see if black friday will be all that profitable this year with inventory stuffing.