Veteran S&P Futures Trader: "I Am 100% Confident That Central Banks Are Buying S&P Futures"

Tyler Durden's picture

A Zero Hedge reader, and long-time futures trader, shares his views on the evolution of the "market", where it was, where it is, and where it may be going.

* * *

I have been an independent trader for 23 years, starting at the CBOT in grains and CME in the S&P 500 futures markets long ago while they were auction outcry markets, and have stayed in the alternative investment space ever since, and now run a small fund.

I understand better than most I would think, the "mechanics" of the markets and how they have evolved over time from the auction market to 'upstairs".  I am a self-taught, top down global macro economist, and historian of "money" and the Fed and all economic and governmental structures in the world.  One thing so many managers don't understand is that the markets take away the most amounts of money from the most amounts of people, and do so non-linearly.  Most sophisticated investors know to be successful, one must be a contrarian, and this philosophy is in parallel.  Markets will, on all time scales, through exponential decay (fat tails, or black swans, on longer term scales), or exponential growth of price itself.  Why was I so bearish on gold at its peak a few years back for instance?  Because of the ascent of non-linearity of price, and the massive consensus buildup of bulls.  Didier Sornette, author of "Why Stock Markets Crash", I believe correctly summarizes how Power Law Behavior, or exponential consensus, and how it lead to crashes.  The buildup of buyers' zeal, and the squeezing of shorts, leads to that "complex system" popping.  I have traded as a contrarian with these philosophies for some time.

The point here is, our general indices have been at that critical point now for a year, without "normal" reactions post critical points in time, from longer term time scales to intraday.  This suggests that many times, there is only an audience of one buyer, and as price goes up to certain levels, that buyer extracts all sellers.   After this year and especially this last 1900 point Dow run up in October, and post non-reaction, that I am 100 percent confident that that one buyer is our own Federal Reserve or other central banks with a goal to "stimulate" our economy by directly buying stock index futures.  Talking about a perpetual fat finger!  I guess "don't fight the Fed" truly exists, without fluctuation, in this situation.  Its important to note the mechanics; the Fed buys futures and the actual underlying constituents that make up the general indices will align by opportunistic spread arbitragers who sell the futures and buy the actual equities, thus, the Fed could use the con, if asked, that they aren't actually buying equities. 

They also consistently use events through their controlled media, whether bad or good price altering news, to create investment behavior.  The "ending" QE 3, and the immediate Bank of Japan QE news that night, and thus the ability to not quit QE using them as their front, and then propping our markets on Globex, like this is suppose to be good news, free markets totally dependent on QE, is one example.  Last night, Obama passing the amnesty bill, and the more great news about how Europe and now China are also printing money out of thin air and "stimulating" their economies with QE too, which in turn prompts the Fed to prop up overnight futures markets on Globex to make that look like great news as well.  I guess this is suppose to create a behavioral pattern for investors, that dependency on government gives us positive feedback and is good, much like Pavlov's dog and the ringing of the bell.

Why would the Fed prop up our stock market to begin with?  Weren't they just supposed to "stimulate" the treasuries market only, to keep interest rates low, indirectly, by an eventual direct purchase in secondary markets, keeping them propped up (for five years now!)?  Well, first of all as it relates to equities and utilizing the "Plunge Protection" mandate, why not just bypass the "plunge" altogether.  Can't the definition of Plunge Protection be just that?  Protection against a plunge instead of during a plunge?  Doesn't propping the market equate to "Plunge Protection" since propping alleviates plunge and "protects" us?  Does it depend on what the definition of "is" is?  And really, doesn't the Fed buying futures directly alleviate those bankers who take their money in TARP or however means and then this money doesn't make its way into the very heart of what the public deems as its consumption motivator, higher stocks and real estate?  Plus, buying futures is a means of then delivering fiat cash upon every expiration, therefore, "stimulus" to someone who receives it. 

The Fed boasts about having a printing press, and I guess this allows them to "fix" everything.  They "print money out of thin air" we keep hearing (which is true by the way) and with US taxpayer backing (fiat currency (always fails throughout history)), (perhaps post QE 3 there is an Executive Order for QE infinity), they sit on the actual bid and hold our treasury markets steady, and by buying out big sellers as they arise like Russia and China via their Belgium central bank franchise as an example, propping our dollar and then staying on that bid by other franchises, having constant bid flow into equity futures in real time hours and Globex overnite, all in order to retain US consumer confidence (since that is what we are suppose to continue to do) and the image of global strength to keep the dollar from losing its reserve status.  Their obsession of stopping a deflationary depression, has headfaked people like Bill Gross, formerly of PIMCO, and known to have started hedging long bond positions five years ago with the assumptions that Fed printing would be inflationary, and rates would move higher, but without the assumption of the perpetual direct bid in the market place by the Fed creating, "price discovery".  For now, that is.

In the end, which they know exactly when that is, the ultimate con is exposed through mass theft.  Americans finally find out what those guys on CNBC are talking about when they mention "inflation" and how it destroys buying power over time.  The end reflects the Fed stepping away from the bid in all markets.  Prior to this, of course, they prep their offshore fund accounts to take the other side and short dollar, short global equities, and short fixed income, with mass leverage for maximum gain.  I mean, why wouldn't they?  They are a private entity and are composed of non-US citizens with no accountability or oversight and they seem to be globalist humanists with a depopulation bent (Rockefeller Foundation). Why wouldn't they use our money to prop, their money to take other side in a massive global short play, then let it all crash by simply stepping off the bid of these markets.  They can then use the controlled talking heads who can relay the complexities of fiat money, index arbitrage, money velocity, currency and CDO swaps, with some geopolitical China worries, whatever, but really emphasize that the whole capitalistic system and constitution was flawed to begin with anyways, and that perhaps totalitarian fascism would be best for the country at this point since everyone's wealth is destroyed overnight and are literally hungry.  Perhaps Obama is just that person!  Maybe Dinesh D'souza was right about Obama.  This is the way to destroy us, or "equal" the playing field globally by taking us down to third world status, is it not?  Leverage the American people's money by trillions of dollars at the tops of capital markets, then bury them in a death spiral?  Maybe Thomas Jefferson knew what he was saying' "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered."  

Why wouldn't anyone believe these words written here?  Perhaps you can't imagine someone being so evil?  Wasn't the Federal Reserve Bank concept initially funded by a Rothschild in the 1800s, who used the media to deceive the public and sway the London Stock Market down negatively, who then speculated against that panicking public's sell orders by taking long positions in stocks, then making a fortune when everyone found out that the news was wrong and positive?  Then later another Rothschild founded our Federal Reserve in 1913, and others like JP Morgan who supposedly bought the US stock market in a banking panic and "saved" America in 1909?  Aren't all of these Fed owners Fabian Socialists?

Details of this last market move:

This last 1900 point Dow Jones push upwards - and the Ebola events leading into it - it was so orchestrated and heightened at critical points but the ascent and push straight up in price, and sideways nonreaction after was completely unlike anything I've seen before.   After going up for a record breaking amount of time the last five or so years, in a nonlinear exponential mania type of ascent, there should normally be tremendous volatility that follows.  But, this isn't a tech-like mania!  There aren't any buyers here other then the Fed.  The shorts were all squeezed in 2009, 2010, 11, 12, and everyone who has ever wanted to buy stocks is in! 

Modern Portfolio Theory has reached it's pinnacle, leading 55% of the American public who partake in that "diversified" portfolio theory off an eventual cliff. The market acts more like a penny stock that has been pumped up and is "boxed" (boxed, meaning, the whole float is buying and holding and held with the promoter, one broker dealer, and thus this one broker dealer can control price "discovery"(regardless of actual fundamentals and using "press releases" to sway and create order flow they want and need from naive clients)) , and less like a free market.  The Dow runs up that much that quickly, then on Globex its down .02 percent at the most over night, multiple days in a row?  No pullback?  Are you kidding me!?  Then the actual trading days have very little volume, and the peaks in price intraday also exhibit nonreactions sideways, just a couple of tics from the highs.  This price manipulation reflects that they want to expunge all shorts on all time scales, to the point that there will be no point to try, and at the very end, there will be very few.  This also reflects that a group of very smart prop trader types, experienced behavioralists, perhaps off of a prior prop desk like a Goldman, are controlling this game, and not some government treasury/cftc/sec "plunge protect" type who doesn't understand this game. 

With the indoctrination of Modern Portfolio Theory, and the masses' epistemology from experience and from "experts" to never ever get out because "it always comes back", and from corporate buybacks, the actual intraday trading float has disappeared, thus, easier and cheaper to manipulate and find the perfect "price discovery" for every situation to control investor behavior, especially during off hours on Globex.  This past situation, during the break and runup, there would be thousands of opportunities for the Fed insiders using different variations of ways to front run (without using the focus dump then pump futures contract itself), making the HFT guys front running for pennies look like complete chumps.  Can you imagine all the different ways to bet the global markets at the height of the ebola scare, which just happened to be the height of the mass media hammering the public with fear about it(haven't heard a word since!), which happened to be the exact moment of a very large Dow Jones 600 points intraday range after falling 1000 points in 9 days, which also happened to be at the height of put option premiums expanding and call option premiums eroding quickly, by knowing that the Fed is now going to prop it back up, way back up, and quickly!  Shorting put premium globally for expiration in 7 or 37 days?  Buying way out of the money cheap calls, buying the underlying equities, shorting interest rates, buying inflation, buying emerging markets and all of their liquid securities, options plays etc...  on and on.  That prior knowledge ts worth trillions, is it not?  We all know that investment bank broker dealer desks take the other side of trades, and inventory the other side opportunistically.  Why wouldn't this "bank" too, especially now that they are intertwined with investment banks thus have gained their intellectual property in trading?  And why wouldn't they influence our idiot sheepish politicians to mandate the Fed Reserve, to encourage the Fed Reserve, to stimulate, whereas our Fed could use that for "the people", while at the same time, for themselves take the other side based on their offshore opportunistic mandate?  Today's current markets are completely manipulated, every market, all the time, with our money and political Keynesian (control) mandate doing the manipulation in order for their money to front run and profit from there opportunistic mandate. 

So if I am right, and my 23 years of experience trading equities, during manias enables me to know with certainty that I am, that they are allowed to directly be involved and have a perpetual standing bid in the secondary derivatives markets, they can then take the other side when they want (no need to publicly announce this, but to justify in their own heads).  So when they take the other side in the public markets upon themselves pulling the prior US citizen backed bids in all markets for the ultimate 80 year cyclical "end game" (btw, about 23 years past the Kondratief Cycle deadline which is one way to describe the inevitable delay in this ongoing natural economic system reset) of the US fiat backed paper print con capped off by mass leverage, wouldn't they make trillions on the bubble pop on the way down?  Wouldn't they also end up eventually owning the whole US since commerce would halt immediately, everyone would lose their jobs causing mass deflation (and hyperinflation due to our currency being booted as reserve currency, and imports becoming expensive overnight) causing mass defaults on their home loan obligations?  Where do our mortgages end up now post 2008, 2009 financial collapse?  Our governments coffers via FHA, FNMA, GNMA?  And who will place a lien on our government when they default on it's loans?  Wouldn't they be able to foreclose on America? 

The US mandate on allowing Plunge Protection enabling the Fed to stick their noses directly in the equities markets was written in 1988 and is public knowledge and found in the public forum.  And the attached "memo" shows incentives from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for Central Bankers to use their equity futures markets. 

Write me if you have any questions or comments, or if you need me to join in your efforts help to expose this Ponzi scam. 

Moses

PM

Mozkickurbutt@yahoo.com

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CapitalistPigsInZen's picture

Needlessly long rant. Horrible run on sentences. Even worse grammar and errors. SPURIOUS QUOTE FROM JEFFERSON.
I wish the truth movement would do their fucking homework. That quote is fabricated and makes us look stupid when it is used.

Mephistopheles's picture

Traders are generally not elegant writers; and it should not detract from the veracity of the message, which rings true to me. However, a citation as to where the Jefferson quotation came from would have been helpful. It is no secret what Jefferson's views were on banks; however, I don't recall ever reading anything of Jefferson's on fiat money; but I am surely no expert in the writings of Jefferson, which I do know were extensive.  

Not My Real Name's picture

Well said. I was going to leave a similar comment (regarding Jefferson), but you beat me to it.

That quote was never uttered by Jefferson and using it unnecessarily diminishes an otherwise excellent piece.

q99x2's picture

Told you so. Told you. The markets are a graph of FED software applications (and media hype) CNBC is funded by Goldman Sachs. 

Essentially the Bankers are purchasing title ownership of all corporations and all assets of the world. Once they've purchased enough with fiat from the central banks they will implode the system, pay for military and domestic forces to quell and depopulate and they won't give a damn because they'll own all the assets. Done deal bitchez. War has been declared against us. It is taking place at this time and the trick to pulling the whole thing off is to have it realized by us in a split second: so there will be no time to physically fight the war that we are in and the markets won't go down they will stop. Prepare to become toast at any moment M'Fers.

Arrest Loyd Blankfein.

grekko's picture

"CNBC is funded by Goldman Sachs"

 

No wonder that they are losing viewership on a massive scale.

Mephistopheles's picture

Excellent Article!

Especially liked the following passage:

This also reflects that a group of very smart prop trader types, experienced behavioralists, perhaps off of a prior prop desk like a Goldman, are controlling this game, and not some government treasury/cftc/sec "plunge protect" type who doesn't understand this game. 

I've been trading intraday markets for almost 20 years- I know "normal" behaviorally based price patterns.  Now, when I watch for classic bearish setups, I wait for the anticipated price break only to see the break start and then reverse back up- not all the time, but lately its become more or more frequent and obvious.  More recently, I can almost count on the reversals of normal behavioral price patterns; and as you indicate, it is happening in more and more securities and in all time frames.

I am a long time ZH reader but I rarely post comments.  My thanks to you Moses for writing this. 

max2205's picture

Yeah but regardless of the fed you should know bull market rules are in effect as this is a bull market

grekko's picture

Bull market, no.  Rigged market, yes!  Ther is nothing free market about this market.  As Chris Powell said, there are no markets anymore, only manipulation.

 

PS:  Please, invest all you have in this market.  I'll be watching for you in the bread and soup line shortly.

Fuku Ben's picture

Zero Hedge --> Home of the Contrarian

You almost lost me here "Fed buying with a goal to "stimulate" our economy"

but kind of saved yourself with you last series of questions that I hope were rhetorical

Of course the goal is to crash everything, own and control everything in a globalist one world order

Your 23 years inside the system has dulled your senses to reality but you're catching on albeit slowly

Jack Burton's picture

Once again, I made these claims about direct buying of indexes by the Fed as part of their "wealth effect" economic recovery scheme years ago and on a different economics blog. And one well known blogger told me, and several others who felt the same as me, that we were "on our asses." Well, I dare suggest we were not on our asses. The problem was he was so wrapped up in the theory of free markets that he failed to believe that those in power who most expouse free markets are the ones perfectly prepared to step in and manipulate those markets. It was a case of ideology trumping common sense based on evidence.

Yes the Fed buys directly and they have agents inside banking that also use their ZIRP loans to act in the Feds stead.

I love free markets and unmanipulated capitalism too. But these people who claim to be the preachers of that system via blogging on economics, have gotta know that theory is different than reality. The Fed is toatally corrupt, and totally "all in" on manipulation of equities. The bankers and speculators who buy congress and and send their executives into the fed and regulatory agencies use those powers to reward themselves and their allies by MANIPULATION. Including direct purchase of indexes when needed to prevent a correction.

I don't like to come on as a person who says "hey, look I was so right!" But, when I am belittled and called an idiot, and then am proven RIGHT, I feel a right to say "I told you so". If I disagree with someones thoughts on an issue, I don't call them idiots. Those who do practice that on their blogs should be held to account when they wer the one's who were wrong.

There is a desperation at work in America! You can see it in how desperate the stock market bubble is being manipulated, desperate in just how much money is being printed, and worse of all, a terrible desperation in the drive to war with Russia over issues that don't warrent war. Why the urgent ruch by America's Powers That Be to print and wage war. I hear some analysts outside the Atlantic NATO and EU grouping starting to say that a financial and ecnomic collapse of the USA based system is nearing reality. They think America acts now with the desperation of one who has to find a way out, and war is always one way that Kings and Dictators chose to turn too when their systems are dying. How bad is the real US Economy and Banking System? Media won't tell us, but Washington's actions speak loudly that disaster is close at hand for the Fiat Dollar system, the corrupt banking system, the manipulated markets and the miltiary industrial complex!

max2205's picture

Look, it's always tough to make serious coin in the markets...free OR rigged

Ride the wave, you can't change it

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

What you say is true though being vindicated must be hollow. Though none of this is surprising to me, I do have a disquieting feeling that if this were to become mainstream knowledge, most would shrug their shoulders unable to grasp the implication and continue down their path. It is just a confirmation for me my non participation is the correct course of action. Small fry should never swim with sharks because one can never predict when the friendship will end and feeding frenzy commences.

I guess my greatest dismay is the fact this has been running on fumes for so long. Every ponzi does fail. No tree touches the sky. Physics has proven there is no such thing perpetual motion but it appears economics is not constrained by natural laws.

Miffed

grekko's picture

I believe that these Ivory Tower Idiots at the Fed are being led on by their Master(s).  They actually believe that they are trying to keep the economy going stronger, fools that they be.  When the time comes, their Master(s) will pull the rug out from underneath them, like Soros did to the English Pound some years ago.  It makes perfect sense to me.  The USA has been put to sleep (first step), then propagandized by MSM (globalists), then dumped into the trashbin by overspending on Hegemony.  Everything is planned to the tee.  Game over, soon. 

 

Lock and load.  Puppetmasters in sight!

Hamm Jamm's picture

I AM CONVINCED THAT CENTRAL BANKS DON'T HAVE OUR BEST INTERESTS AT HEART !

 

Hahahahahahahahahaha

 

C'mon you bunch of tarts, let get this done....   Lets BOIL them in HOT OIL ...      squeeeeeeeeel bankers SQUEEEEEEEEL

Irishcyclist's picture

I've no doubt that what is said in the article is true.

The FED is both the poacher and the gamekeeper at the point - and that circumstance is wide open to abuse.

 

Rubbish's picture

Tptb will have a plan after this plan. You need to start living, be prepared, work the sheep, steal from the rich, fly low and

 

Gold Bitchez.....I pick up pennies

TheFutureReset's picture

I pick nickels out of change. 

yogibear's picture

Some people say this is BS and tinfoil yet Japan annouces it outright.

Expect the US is doing the same.

They can't have it drop due to pension funds. 

spekulatn's picture

Well done ZH. Great read.

Outstanding stuff Moses. Best to you.

SocialismIsCancer's picture

Government, financial system, political system all hopelessly broken. Arm yourselves and prepare for a re-creation event.

devo's picture

Oh man, lost me at that Jefferson misquote and mention of the Rothchilds. Another lunatic.

frankinpetca's picture

Youri Karma  -  The you tube revelation doesn't or no longer exists. +

Bryan's picture

Whatever happened to the "audit the Fed" people?  I don't hear much about that any more -- where they all nailgunned or otherwise told to shut up?

devo's picture

Comcast put them in the "slow lane".

wswarrior's picture

I totally agree with what the author said. I am a long time options trader selling puts and calls on the S&P futures and I've lost a lot of money in the past few weeks as the market continued to run. I expected a bounce off of the lows and played that properly, but I was expecting a pull back after we passed 2000 again that never transpired. It's amazing to see the same pattern day in and day out in this manipulated market. If they were smart they would at least allow some minor pull backs during these run ups to keep people honest. I'm truly amazed by the lack of downside volatility because humans don't Rush to buy stocks after an index has climbed over 10% in just a few weeks. I've also noticed that futures ramp further in the 15 minutes after the cash markets close on no news pretty regularly.

gmak's picture

"I'm truly amazed by the lack of downside volatility because humans don't Rush to buy stocks after an index has climbed over 10% in just a few weeks."

 

What about the madness of crowds? Tulips at a million dollars anyone? Crack Shack or Mansion? Long line in front of an empty club (Regine). c'mon! That is exactly when humans rush in - when it seems that that is what everyone is doing! It's called the herd instinct and there are so many books about it....

 


devo's picture

Right? Everyone just bought gold and bitcoin at all time highs. Few years before that houses. Few years before that tech...etc. It's exactly what one would expect. I bought the dip and made 10% in a week. Then sold. Waiting to do it again, though Santa Claus ralling coming up...

insanelysane's picture

Just like at the poker table you can play the perfect strategy and still lose, especially if the dealer is dealing from the bottom of the deck.

Actually a better poker analogy is a poker tournament where everyone gets a set amount of chips to start and there are a finite amount of chips for all players.  You and all the players play based on certain parameters knowing the odds and the number of chips in the game.  Along comes a new player and this guy has an infinite amount of chips.  Can you win the tournament?  He can't be busted.  He can call any bet you make and play any and every hand in the game.  Game over.

devo's picture

The FED will never let it crash, just to avoid the "Peter Schiff was right" videos.

Dre4dwolf's picture

The stock market is a great way to launder counterfeit money.

Insiders (Central Banks friends buy stocks).

Central Bank Counterfeits money to buy those stocks.

No one is the wiser.

Insiders Sell stocks causing biggest crash in human history.

Wealth is transfered from middle to top.

And the govt and banks sick the homeless and destitute on the middle class to keep them busy and in shock.

NWO engages.

Thats all thats going on.

gmak's picture

If I understand correctly (and I may not), the authour is saying that the markets have reached a 'critical' peak - not defining how this is recognized. The authour then says that most people don't understand: "One thing so many managers don't understand is that the markets take away the most amounts of money from the most amounts of people, and do so non-linearly. " - My understanding is that almost everyone recognizes that the market OFTEN acts so as to hurt the most people (a crowded trade doesn't always work out the way expected).

 

The author further states that because this critical peak has not resolved (sounds like 1999 and 2004 - 2007 all over again, no?) that there can be only ONE BUYER in the market taking everyone out.  I confess that I may be slow here - but I just don't get the connection.  Finally, the authour states that they are 100% certain that it is the FED without offering any facts to back this.

I don't understand. Perhaps if this sentence were complete, it might make more sense:

"Markets will, on all time scales, through exponential decay (fat tails, or black swans, on longer term scales), or exponential growth of price itself.  "

 

What I am hearing is:

1. The market is behaving differently this time than the authour expects (see 1999, 2004 - 2007; heck, even go back to 1950ish when equity dividends went lower than long term treasuries - which common wisdom stated should never happen due to the fact that dividends were riskier) and many lost their shirts betting against this and for a reversion to the previous relationship).

2. The market ALWAYS goes against the most crowded trade. (Not always but I would agree often - but only because the crowded trades are usually where the weak hands of late 'dumb' money reside). Also stated as one only makes money as a contrarian (whatever happened to the trend is your friend until it isn't?). My opinion is that the market trends, then it consolidates, then it trends again - not always in the same direction. Your mileage may vary depending on the time scale you are looking at.

3. Since the market has not yet done this on all the bulls - there must be a SINGLE buyer taking everyone out.  (huh? I find this to be quite a leap, if I am reading it correctly.). Was there a single buyer in 1999? What about 2004 - 2007? 

4. That buyer MUST be (100% certainty) be the FED!!! okay. I'm going to keep my voice low and soft and not make any sudden movements on this.

 

I think that I much prefer the Occam's Razor corollary. That when enough individuals, acting in their own best interest, see those interests align - it can appear to be a single action or a conspiracy.  I apply this to the simple solution that the market has continued to go up while this trader expects it to go down because senior management of public companies are being given extraordinary rewards to leverage up at very low rates and buy back their own stock in order to "BEAT the STREET" in EPS.  The rewards are so great that they are willing to overlook the longer run health of their companies ("I won't be here in 6 years at 50 - 200 million per in bonus).

You and I know that these markets are not being the discount mechanism they are supposed to be. I know that they need to correct and will do so violently when the metaphorical elastic stretches to far and snaps. However, I don't know when - no one does - and that is where money is lost (being early). 

Back in the old days post-Bretton Woods, when countries would interfere in the natural (market) movement of their currencies, they could change the expectd outcome for a time. However, inevitably there would be a reaction away from the intervention much much more violent that would have otherwise occured. Soveriegn funds are intervening in the markets, and the consequences will be much greater volatility in the future than would otherwise have occured. 

 

IN conclusion: The markets are behaving the way they are because the FED is taking everyone out? I don't think so. Many parties are using very very cheap leverage to buy equities in order to personally benefit? Much more likely.

 

Cheers.

Livermore Legend's picture

"......when enough individuals, acting in their own best interest, see those interests align - it can appear to be a single action or a conspiracy......"

Indeed.

You have alot of Potential.......Pursue it...

Livermore Legend's picture

".........One thing so many managers don't understand is that the markets take away the most amounts of money from the most amounts of people, and do so non-linearly......." 

Indeed.

".......This price manipulation reflects that they want to expunge all shorts on all time scales, to the point that there will be no point to try, and at the very end, there will be very few......."

Manipulation is a Lame Excuse by Both Proponent and Believer:

LONG ETFC @ 0.59 in 2009;

SHORT RIMM at 70.00 in 2010;

SHORT APPL @ 700 in 2012;

Plenty of Money to Made in Markets at ALL TIMES.

Anyone taking Position based on the Actions of any other Party is basically incompetent.

If you cannot Play the Game on your Own Two Feet with your Own Abilities, Don't Play.

There is only One Agenda and One Objective:

Yield on Capital Relative to Time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

gmak's picture

"The shorts were all squeezed in 2009, 2010, 11, 12, and everyone who has ever wanted to buy stocks is in! "

 

I don't know about this. I see a lot of shorts still in the market. I see a lot in some very crowded trades that will make it impossible to get out unless the underlying in question goes bankrupt. I also think that there are still those wanting to buy stocks: Corporate buy-backs for instance.

 

This reminds me of religioin where everything that cannot be immediately explained in relation to experience to date, must be ascribed to some higher entity. 

 

C'mon people. We are observing the results of an alignment of vested interests. Shorts have been trained to get out early. ETF buying (retail coming back in) happens everyday after 3PM.  There are explanations for everything being observed. Just because someone may not know why does not mean that there is a higher entity solely responsible for everythingl.  

 

If the authour really believes their thesis, then they must be longer than the proverbial 10 foot pole. Why fight the FED and the army of CBs who print money?  How did the market ever fall to SPX = 1900ish before Bullard jaw-boned?

Is there no critical thought left anywhere?

Livermore Legend's picture

"......We are observing the results of an alignment of vested interests...."

 

.

silverer's picture

"Is there no critical thought left anywhere?" Well, only when they write the history books, apparently.

SheepDog-One's picture

Wow big deal....I was 100% certain central banksters were scamming the stock market with Fed backing years ago.

Mi Naem's picture

"Markets will, on all time scales, through exponential decay (fat tails, or black swans, on longer term scales), or exponential growth of price itself.

Anybody understand what he meant to say here? 

Imagery's picture

guessing but "given enough time and freely exchanged info, markets price themselves"?

of course, intervening in markets and hiding market signals is indisputably what the Fed does.....how else would one "move" a market? 

El Hosel's picture

Up Markets are Policy now

theyjustcantstop's picture

some still don't get it, the end game is, the BIS will own all assets, and you can't get out of the game, this why something radical has to be done now.

there's some stating, i seen this coming for --- i've went long for --- made out good, what do you have, big house, ---- acres of land--- stacked---, ok now what do you do, who's better off?

we now know about myra's, (confiscation) of 401k's, and ira's), and gates, financial penalties for try to access your money, of course it goes without saying, any money in the banks, whats yours, and whats theirs will be decided before, (if), they reopen for business again.  

have you ever been in a poker game, and the players won't let you leave winner, well i see now i have been in one all my life, but just didn't know it.

work, pay your taxes, play by the rules, save for retirement for 35-50 yrs., now what, at this point in time i've got to tell my children, and grand-children i've been played for a sucker by americas govt..

virtually impossible to leave america with my assets, but anyone can enter and proceed to spend my assets.

back to my main point, who's better off, this is as decision many are going to have to make.

#1 your retired, it's you, and your wife living in a nice, 4 bedroom house, you get a letter from the irs, your on or list for relocation, there are many families in your area in need of larger housing.

you'll be moved to a less sparsely populated area in your hub.

yes we know, it's in a trust for your heirs, thats being worked out, and you will recieve a check for the difference in the houses, after capital-gains taxes.

#2 self explanatory, if you sold all your longs, the irs knows where your assets are, if their still in the market, try to get out of the game, then into what.

#3 same letter from irs, your retired, you, and your wife own 500 acres of farm-ground, it's been decided thats 490 acres more than you need, there are other families more in need.

#4 same letter from the irs., are records show your income for last 20 yrs. our records, supported by your different bank records, visa, and mastercard records, show a $ 250.000.00-$ 300,000.00, of unaccountable surplus, do you collect anything of value, or been putting currency in a safety deposit box, or personal vault.

all the while there are 6 others with metal-detectors roaming your premises. 

scary shit yes?

whats scarier is it's not unbelieveable, and would get full support of over 50% of americans.

kristian01's picture

I think it's safe to say that ZH has officially jumped the shark with this one.  At least in the past when they've been thin on conspiracy theory rants they've trotted out Saxo Bank or Peter Schiff to go on the record.

How long have these clowns been short, btw--something like the last 1,500 S&P points?  Never wrong, just early...

magne13's picture

The fact that the market goes up means that there is a consistent buyer, who it is or how many buyers that it may be is irrelevant, the fact that the market basically goes up everyday is to me, very simple, QE, when you have access and the ability to print money, or add a zero to a commercial banks account, this is a very powerful tool to increase nominal values.  The FED and every other central bank may not be DIRECTLY buying stocks, of which, they are as is noted in many articles, and as noted by the CME incentive program.  We are allowing a very small group of individuals to basically counterfeit money and buy assets legally.  This should not be allowed as it raises the price for real long term investors, but what it really does over time, is that it drives everyone who can't afford to buy,out of the market.  This is the exact rationale the FED is using to control the market and to steal wealth from everyone.  They know the higher the market goes the less regular people can afford to buy it, this is why the volumes are miserable, basically it is no longer a zero sum game.  Central banks never have to sell, ever, well at least not until they are fully loaded with longer dated puts, but no matter, they will own underlying land assets after they foreclose on everything, rinse recycle, repeat...

Bear's picture

The volumes are miserable because they (Thr FED) are the only buyers and a few sellers like The Bear

wswarrior's picture

I was eluding to the intraday movements. Even in bull markets, you have pull backs, but this has been a vertical move up for five weeks with no corresponding pull back. That's not how free markets work, sorry you don't understand this.