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Retail Disaster: Holiday Sales Crater by 11%, Online Spend Declines: NRF Blames Shopping Fiasco On "Stronger Economy"
Last year was bad. This year is an outright disaster.
As we reported earlier using ShopperTrak data, the first two days of the holiday shopping season were already showing a -0.5% decline across bricks-and-mortar stores, following a "cash for clunkers"-like jump in early promotions which pulled demand forward with little follow through in the remaining shopping days. However, not even we predicted the shocker just released from the National Retail Federation, the traditionally cheery industry organization, which just reported absolutely abysmal numbers: sales during the four-day Thanksgiving holiday period crashed by a whopping 11% from $57.4 billion to $50.9 billion, confirming what everyone but the Fed knows by now: the US middle class is being obliterated, and that key driver of 70% of US economic growth is in the worst shape it has been since the Lehman collapse, courtesy of 6 years of Fed's ruinous central planning.
Demonstrating the sad state of America's "economic dynamo", shoppers spent an average only $380.95, down 6.4% from $407.02 a year earlier. In fact, as the NRF charts below demonstrate, there was a decline across virtually every tracked spending category (source):
As the WSJ reports, NRF's CEO Matt Shay attributed the drop to a combination of factors, including the fact that retailers moved promotions earlier this year in attempt to get people out sooner and avoid what happened last year when people didn’t finish their shopping because of bad weather.
Also did we mention the NRF is perpetually cheery and always desperate to put a metric ton of lipstick on a pig? Well, hold on to your hats folks:
He also attributed the declines to better online offerings and an improving economy where “people don’t feel the same psychological need to rush out and get the great deal that weekend, particularly if they expected to be more deals,” he said.
And of course the sprint vs marathon comparisons, such as this one: "The holiday season and the weekend are a marathon not a sprint,” NRF Chief Executive Officer Matthew Shay said on a conference call. Odd how that metaphor is never used when the (seasonally-adjusted) sprint beats the marathoners.
So there you have it: a 11% collapse in retail spending has just been spun as super bullish for the US economy, whereby US consumers aren't spending because the economy is simply too strong, and the only reason they don't spend is because they will spend much more later. Or something.
Apparently the plunge in Americans who even care about bargains is also an indication of an economic resurgence:
The retail trade group said the number of people who went shopping over the four-day weekend declined by 5.2% to 134 million, from 141 million last year.
Finally, what we said earlier about a surge in online sales, well forget it - it was a lie based on the now traditional skewed perspectives from a few self-servcing industry organizations:
Despite many retailers offering the same discounts on the Web as they offered in stores, the Internet didn’t attract more shoppers or more spending than last year. Online sales accounted for 42% of sales racked up over the four-day period, the same percentage as last year, though up from 26% in 2006, the trade group said.
In fact, it was worse: "Shoppers spent an average $159.55 online, down 10.2% from $177.67 last year."
But the propaganda piece de resistance is without doubt the following:
“A highly competitive environment, early promotions and the ability to shop 24/7 online all contributed to the shift witnessed this weekend,” Mr. Shay said.
So to summarize: holiday sales plunged, and Americans refused to shop because the economy is "stronger than ever" and because Americans have the option of shopping whenever, which is why they didn't shop in the first place. That, and of course plunging gasoline prices leading to... plunging retail sales, just as all the economists "correctly" predicted.
Goebbels approves.
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'Black Friday' was brought forward this year in Ferguson. 'Five-finger' discounts were reported across the city. Many sales were so hot, they were smoking. It was rumored that Preezy wished to give everything back to the hood. Screw those damn small businesses. They didnt build that.
Long Skittles.
recovery?
This is good for stocks............right?
We shop for groceries and that is about it. I have all the junk i could possibly use already. As a matter of fact the family is in the process of selling our excess crap we have accumulated over the last 15 years and mind you almost all of that stuff was bought at yard sales auctions and thrift stores. We laughed when we drove past wal-mart last thusday evening looking at all the sheep flocking to be fleeced. Opt out and beat the system.
exactly what we did, so much better off now
Yeah,driving by the packed wal mart on thanksgiving night was depressing, to say the least.
I mean, how could you not have something better to do?
Because sales are just so - out - this year.
Personally, I prefer to pay full price retail every chance I get.
Doesn't everyone?
Was at the local mall this weekend for shits and grins to see what was going on. Could have taken the 12 gauge and shot skeet in there without hurring anyone. NEVER haveI seen that mall that empty on the day after Thanksgiving. If I was a retailer I would be shit scared of the coming shake out. Perhaps that is why wally world is going full retard and buiding a neighborhood market on every corner.
I hope that maybe, just maybe, this is a sign people are waking up as to how venal and downright disgusting the "Black Friday" nonsense is.
A creation of marketing with no logical justification that embodies the absolute moral opposite of what holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas are supposed to mean, with all of the nastiest, most materialistic excesses of human behavior on display.
One can hope...
Brother can you spare a cigarillo?
Das rayciss!
I'm with Delivered on this one. There is literally nothing of quality to buy, and I have WAY too much shit already, and donating most of it to the Goodwill.
Don't need no TV, no blue-ray player, no crappy spoons or barbecue stuff (the old ones work just fine), no bed mattress or linens, no carpet cleaner crap, no robots (the one from 2009 still works just fine).
There is nothing compelling out there that I need. Don't need a new iPhone or Android. My 1.5 year old Samsung works just fine.
Don't need any new car loan, the old ones work just fine and are paid for. All I really gotta do is change the oil on a regular basis and filters.
Fuck the economy. Don't need it. I got my own economy to worry about.
Have to admit to spending $15 on gas and about $9 on food this weekend.
Pales in comparison to the 50 oz of silver I purchased on Tuesday. Possibly poor timing, but my silver arrived Saturday and I'm so happy, I'm going to buy moar on Monday.
But ya' know, gotta think like Lawrence Yun: It's always a great time to buy silver.
I bought some hot sauce, a gift card for my Dad's birthday and a six pack of beer. Spent probably $40.
Cajohn's Reaper Sling Blade, in case anyone was curious.
I just bought the hot sauce and beer. Just saying Merry Xmas is good enough at my place. Don't need a bunch of crap you don't really need in the first place.
Damn straight.
There were record numbers of travelers this week and horrible weather, which disrupted travel as well as shoppers. Don't try to make too much out of ths.
Yea, cause none of the other Black Friday weekends had lots of travelers or bad weather. Hell, last year I was wearing nothing but a loincloth while shopping non-stop for 92-hours in a balmy 61-degree paradise.
We are doing much better, but no thanks to the government. We simply turned a liability into an asset by renting our nice house out and buying a smaller fixer upper outright during the downturn to live in. The bank expected us to throw that last bit of savings we had left into their black hole. We are very grateful and know we are also very lucky. For us, spending less is a choice, we'll never go into debt slavery again and neither will our kids if we can help it. Consumerism is forever in our past, fuck the banksters!
Give Precious Metals this Christmas... especially to family and friends who don't have any..
every person who realizes the advantages or non taxed, non audited wealth, that can slip from one hand to another.. is a Chink in their Armour...
While I continue to hear from the media how sales were brisk or people did a hard shift to buying online or on Thursday it does not change what I saw.
Reports from the local mall and surrounding stores started coming in around 6:00AM from my "shopping team" on the morning of Black Friday. They shocked even me, not only were the parking lots empty but many of the stores had more employees working than customers. This was something I felt was worth seeing first hand.
My office is across from the second largest mall in my state so as I went into work an unplanned visit seemed in order. Foot traffic inside the mall was far less than I imagined, most of the shoppers were younger women and older girls. These are considered the "core" and most diehard of shoppers. Many were carrying few if any bags, this indicates little in the way of buying. The article below includes a picture of foot traffic at 7:00am and looks at why animal spirits in reaction to Black Friday were far less enthusiastic than in the past.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/11/retail-sales-expectations-should-be.html
When the cost of capital is zero, investment will not stop until there is not one dime in profit remaining.
In my area the news is telling us the economy is so good…. People no longer have to shop for the discounts. They are fine with paying higher prices.
-11% ?
I'm sure those numbers will be corrected tomorrow.
Seasonally adjusted , of course.
One of the Visa servers forgot to report back to the cluster.
The government is gonna close their shit down fast.
There has been a 22% increase in quality of boots produced by MiniProd, which has resulted in an 22% decrease in price with the result that the real sales are actually up 11%.
I dunno, maybe there is a difference between the cunts that call themselves democrats and their maniacal belief in the keynsian fairy tail and the conservatives* and sound fiscal discipline.
*Anyone with the name of bush is not a conservative.
Edit: by the way, went to the local mall today in Naples FL....a busy busy place normally, parked in third spot from the door, many of the stores, you could hear crickets. I waited in no line to buy a pair of sneakers. Nothing going on.
Oh so let me guess.........Everyeone was too fucking busy working some great job to go out and shop?
What a bunch of cum belching whores!
The clock ticks closer to midnight you goddamn fucking clowns!!!!
Uparrowed your sentiments.
This news re dismal sales doesn't even appear on CNN or Reuters; incredible. Bloomberg has it, but it is far down the page; you have to hunt for it. I guess along with possible ebola infections, we aren't supposed to know about lousy Black Friday sales.
I went shopping this weekend and bought the following:
TOOLS, Nails, Screws - For fixing stuff around the house
PVC - Still cheap as fuck, bought a TON of connectors and stuf so I can fix my own plumbing if it goes. Still need like 40 feet of the "good" insulated stuff for new solar heater planned this year.
EDIABLE PLANTS - Seeds, some Aloe, and trying something new, passionfriut!
I am buying stuff that will help me save a lot of money in the coming year!
Hey any other ideas? (other than the normal gold, guns, silver, blah blah)
nite vision gear/wd-40/wild cherry flavored candy pants
Peak....more gold...the rest will be almost free later...
Grab some 3 or 4 mil plastic tarps and duct tape. You can use that with the PVC to build cold frames to start a garden early, or even a greenhouse. If you live anywhere cold you can use it to seal off a room or windows. Likewise in the cold, use thicker drapes/curtains and weatherstrip. A cheap laser thermometer will help you find leaks. Good garden and potting soil is always nice. If you are doing solar, get some black water barrels or trash cans for passive heating too.
I went full off grid solar. Doing my own shopping, research, and installation the complete setup with a back up generator was almost 2000 dollars. Year 6 coming up. Single father of 2 teenagers so my demand isn't as large as many people...but hell spend 8 thousand then.
Will we also witness, just in time for X-mas, a plunge in stawk prices? Perhaps they will wait til after New Year's to go on 50%-off sale.
Stayed home and played Risk with son and granddaughter (I won the whole world!)...but sorry, I haven't spent anything....does that make me a terrorist?
+1. You're surely not a sheeple, you've proven that without a doubt. With that said: Get out there and consume something quickly!!! Buy a plastic $499.00 vacuum from "England" or something.
So long sears, kmart, radioshack etc
i think the news media is reporting this as a huge success, the muppets will buy stocks, the CNBC guests will confirm the consumer is not dead, but of course we all know different
Maybe this will be the new form of education. Experience is worth it's weight in gold.
After the crash, all the people will realize how bad debt can be and never forget.
And you can thank your Gubmint for the free education.
Can't wait until the weather is trotted out as an excuse.
Retailers are doing it to themselves with early setup of Christmas decorations - with 'sales' of some kind starting on November 1st and being 'pre Black Friday', with opening on Thanksgiving, and with increased online sales presence even for brick and mortar store web sites. Black Friday used to be special because it kicked off the holiday buying season. Now it has become just another in long, tired series of fall and winter sales.
I just can't come to terms with seeing X-Mas displays in stores when public swimming pools are still open.
The open on Thanksgiving meme is sort of like failing restaurants. When a restaurant advertises, "Now open for breakfast," it' won't be long before the place closes its doors for good.
The open on Thanksgiving meme is sort of like failing restaurants. When a restaurant advertises, "Now open for breakfast," it' won't be long before the place closes its doors for good.
I'm waiting for it. "My fellow Americans, well,we fucked some folks..."
At least 30% of the annual sales budget of big retailers depend on this hols season. Fun to watch the dumping of inventories when the hols are over and maybe the retailers themselves too.
Calm down, the economy is just fine.
Economy up = it's only because of the Fed and is all going to end in disaster
Economy down = it's all because of the Fed and is ending in disaster
That's Zerohedge.
and then there was hope on ZH, and therefore the World.
blessed be and happy fucking monday come morning!
you could see it coming, expand black friday to black friday WEEK and you take away the impetus. okay every days Christmas, (so why buy any gifts at all?) big mistake but unavoidable. now the real bargains begin, and the real deflation grabs hold
About time those numbers went down. YUPP.
When their shopping crazy - it's bad in ZH perspective.
If they are not shopping crazy - it's bad anyway in ZH perspective.
So what ever happens - US sucks in ZH perspective and Russia rules :D
Sick bastards!
Just got an email from Dell telling their Black Friday doorbusters are extended to December 11.
Now should I be buying S&500 Puts?
Now should I be buying S&500 Puts?
Zerohedgers - stop thinking, just nod and keep stacking. India is going all in on physical with restrictions lifted and Fed Monday prices!
I spend all my money on cheap silver today, so no more money left for plastic icrap.
Bye
Think anybody is living in Greece still?
No one has mentioned what this means to China and the manufacturers.
Goal Seeking 7.5% will be tough with a -11% drop in NA retail sales of Chinese junks.
One contributor to slow sales: No whiz-bang must-have new product. Where are the $10 DVD player riots of yesteryear?
We went shopping saturday and the stores were very empty. Not that I'm complaining.
Consumers are now obsolete. The only things that matter now are Bullard's musings and Keynesian bullshit.
Hey look everything that was selling on friday is now cheaper/same price today on monday.
But O, I don't want / need anything so ...not gona buy junk I don't need.
That was predictable.
Really stores should reduce inventory upkeep and streamline and only stock things people need to replace on a regular basis.... if I was managing best-buy, I would cut inventory by 30% make the stores smaller and more streamline (like a radio-shack maybe but little bigger).
You don't need 60 flat-screens on display burning electricity for no reason.
and
You don't need 9 useless people walking around pretending to help people.
These outlets are going to be in big trouble soon.... they are very wasteful and inefficient and there is no way they are making the sales to cover their expenses by a wide enough margin to make it meaningful.
It seems the Fed accidentally sent my stimulus check to Goldman Sacks by mistake, so I didn't have any money to spend this Black Friday. But there's always next year!
" NRF Blames Shopping Fiasco On "Stronger Economy" "
You couldn't make this stuff up.
Cool. After reading the headline of this article, I Googled "retail sales" and this article was the 1st hit.
Google and ZeroHedge, married at last! Heterosexual, homosexual, or hermaphrodite sex?
CNBC quote today was a classic in response to b/f retail figures down 11%.
"It's difficult to understand why they are down, I guess there must be 'some' people left in recession"
What a bunch of isolated f#ckwits.
It's lucky that the unemployment rate is only 5.9%...or sales would really suck.
Oh...I just got it......face palm. So many people are busy working that they have no time to buy things.