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Everyone's 'Guesses' At Today's Payroll Data In 1 Simple Chart

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Between professional economists, CNBC's "Nail The Number", and Twitter #NFPGuesses, the range of today's guesses for payrolls is between 100k and 400k...

 

 

Source: @M_McDonough

 

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Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:28 | 5519998 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

CNBC really sucks... I cannot listen to their over optimistic banter.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:28 | 5520002 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Who?

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:29 | 5520009 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Bloomberg has actually surpassed CNBC in suckishness in my opinion.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:34 | 5520017 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

They're all (every media outlet of any kind) owned by 5 corporations.

CNBC has a prize for anyone predicting the exact NFP #: A one hour lunch with Steve Linesman @ Applebee's.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:34 | 5520023 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

Republican control of congress equals jobs.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:35 | 5520028 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Did you get lost on your way to Huffpo lil fella?

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:37 | 5520035 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

He isn't representative of HuffPo's clientelle. 

He got lost on the way to Faux (WE <3 WOAR) News.  

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:52 | 5520104 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

November elections brought confidence and in our industry....it meant a thaw on job freezes. We added several new positions and invested in new growth. Our partners played the identical moves.

Sure we may not be a proxy for the national economy but the tie to the election was clear.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:36 | 5520029 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Wow, that is a huge number.  Guess lots of part time retail and bartenders got hired last month.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 10:28 | 5520291 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

If you owned stocks during this time.....you'd be optimistic, too.

It all a farce though.  As a man who owned a newspaper stand in 1929 said when asked he was going to buy stocks: "Nope, I'll pass.  I have a bad feeling.  You'll see".

3 mths later, he was right.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:28 | 5520001 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

More fun to guess how low they will smash the Vix today

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:29 | 5520003 himaroid
himaroid's picture

I just told my old lady that the password to my brokerage account is "BALD PUSSY".

Now why the fuck should she cuss me for that?

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:42 | 5520052 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Women?!?!?!....?!?

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:31 | 5520014 youngman
youngman's picture

321,000    who wodda tunk it...

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:39 | 5520037 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Me.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:32 | 5520015 skbull44
skbull44's picture

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

In this age of constantly manipulated data do any numbers really mean anything beyond the narrative they are wrapped within??

http://olduvai.ca

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:33 | 5520022 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

What?  You guys didn't get the early-release number yet?  Wow, that sucks.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:34 | 5520025 Rockatanski
Rockatanski's picture

just holiday season bumb, happens every year right?

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:35 | 5520027 youngman
youngman's picture

and gold and silver are slammed

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:36 | 5520030 achmachat
achmachat's picture

actually japan just crashed.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:39 | 5520044 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

:-o

USD-JPY printing at 121

Ho Li Fuk

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:40 | 5520048 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

and gold and silver are slammed

 

Yeah....that's pretty normal.....it's Black Friday for gold investors. Set a good example....no pushing or shoving.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:37 | 5520032 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Gold monthly chart analysis:

http://investfts.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/gold-monthly-thoughts.html

Weak payroll could get a bullish close needed for week.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:39 | 5520043 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

What about a manipulation strong number ???

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:50 | 5520100 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Rollin the last minute dice are we? 

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:36 | 5520034 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Why on earth would the guessing of some random people from all over the place with totally different know-how and background on something they probably can't even explain and at the same time influencing each others be normally distributed?

Everybody using a normal distribution for almost everything in Finance is crazy.

NOTHING in Finance and Investing is normally distributed. NOTHING!!! PERIOD!

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 09:38 | 5520036 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

PS: 321k?

Yeah right.

Fri, 12/05/2014 - 10:37 | 5520310 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

BLS must have decided to count  "rioter & looter" as a full time job, protester as a part time job.

 

 

Obama needs to show a drop in black unemployment and this will be the easiest way.

 

 

We reclassified some folks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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