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Crude Carnage Contagion: Biggest Stock Bloodbath In 3 Years, Credit Crashes
We leave it to Jack to explain what happened this week...
Quite a week!!
- WTI's 2nd worst week in over 3 years (down 10 of last 11 weeks)
- Dow's worst worst week in 3 years
- Financials worst week in 2 months
- Materials worst week since Sept 2011
- VIX's Biggest week since Sept 2011
- Gold's best week in 6 months
- Silver's last 2 weeks are best in 6 months
- HY Credit's worst 2 weeks since May 2012
- IG Credit's worst week in 2 months
- 10Y Yield's best week since June 2012
- US Oil Rig Count worst week in 2 years
- The USDollar's worst week since July 2013
- USDJPY's worst week since June 2013
- Portugal Bonds worst week since July 2011
- Greek stocks worst week since 1987
Some serious intraday volatility this week as hope kept shining through but in the end, reality won. Despite spiking euphoria among US Consumers, concerns over Greek elections, Japanese elections, the GDP-plunge-driven collapse in oil prices (with neither OPEC nor non-OPEC willing to blink yet on cutting production), and contagion to high-yield finallly caught up with stocks after they blindly followed the mainstream media narrative that low oil prices are unequivocally good for every muppet.
First things first... 2014 so far... "why would you buy a Treasury bond when you can buy stocks with dividends?"
Here's why crude matters...
ES trading vs. Crude for the week pic.twitter.com/Dv5yweu5aZ
— Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) December 12, 2014
No Hindenburg Omen today but it appears the Dow & S&P are pressing down to test their 50DMAs...
On the week, The Dow was the laggard... NOT OFF THE LOWS
And Energy sector the worst...
The Russell 2000 closed the week negative year-to-date...
VIX surged this week (ignore the excitement over percentage moves)...
Treasury yields collapsed...
Leaving the decoupling at epic levels... between bonds and stocks..
and between credit and stocks...
The Dollar slipped a little today to end the week down over 1%
Gold and Silver had great weeks - very stable as the rest of the markets turmoiled - while oil prices
Crude is now down 25% from the initial OPEC leaks...back below $58!!
Makes you wonder eh? The decoupling began when QE3 was hinted at...
and energy credit is near 1000bps now... and is starting to spread to rest of the HY markets...
notably worse than stocks (for now)...
* * *
But it's all about the fundamentals!! Great Jobs Data, Great Retail Sales Data, and Great Consumer Confidence Data - unless that's all totally manipulated bullshit?
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: How much longer can this go on?
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Snap. My first thoughts too. How does this dip compare to October's pullback.
OPEC overproduces, oil price collapses, this is bad for the US, Europe, Japan,China how exactly?
It's great!!! everyone is missing the point! Dow should have been up 300! wtf?? fill up yer F150 and get those extra holiday gifts you were "on the fence" about! 'Merika Fuk Yeah!
You finance vets could maybe help this guy instead of just downvoting him....
High oil was keeping alot of balls juggling in emerging and mature energy production areas like texas ..
Collapsing oil prices are bad for the idiotic world of finance. They're great for the real world of mainstreet working Joes.
Huge sums of money have been created in the form of loans to support energy industry expansion and speculation. The collateral is energy prices. Energy prices drop, the collateral is wiped out and folks holding the speculative paper are pear shaped.
Think about what happened when housing prices collapsed. Cheap housing is GREAT for the working Joe. What's not to like about everyone living in a nice place for cheap? But the price collapse wiped out the collateral backing the idiotic loans that pushed prices up in the first place. The financial system went berserk because all that speculative money was now backed by insufficient collateral.
Thank you on newbs behalf, better than I would have put it.
The SHEEPLE are leaving their pens... get Cattle Dogs (Cramer & CNBC) are corral SHEEPLE back into their pens (Stocks).
Good value range for the DJIA = 2600-3000 [price/sales]
The CB's have merely placed a mad premium on stocks via open market operations.
It won't end any better than you would expect it to.
TOMO droped 35% this week. $490B this week vs $754B last week. Repo collateral drying up?
Why so eager for a market collapse when it does happen it aint goig to be pretty for any of us.I for one enjoy my lifestyle
Howdy pilgrim. You must be new to these parts.
life style
adult diapers..?
Depends on how "the market" does i guess?
We Depended some folks.
Right on, brother.
But what I hope for and what I expect are not the same things, unfortunately.
well what do u know...
they finally got Silver below $17 in the fucking "nobodys really selling any Silver" Globex...
yeah, ok...
17.01 now though so off the lows.
Okay, so how low will the Fed let the markets fall before they either try jawboning with a few hints of plenty of ammo left (read QE infinity), or directly intervene? Will they get a call from the White House to make a clever Sunday evening statement and have their BOJ proxies pump the futures to prevent a dismal Monday open? They cannot allow the Dow to plunge and bears to make money. Their model is 100% based upon pumping up the markets and the ‘trickle down’ effect. Everything else is fluff. If the wealthy get scared and lose faith in Fed’s wealth support, they will close up shop, take their gold and leave the country. The collapse will feed on itself. The largest property bubble areas will implode as fear takes over. Those that bought high in the biggest bubble regions, will panic. Many will walk away and the banks will demand bailouts. It will get ugly fast. This is the ‘New Normal’ where the central bankers and their constant interventions is all that prevents the final collapse.
Maybe they will let it go a couple of days, then move to rip the shorts faces off again.
00ps!
It's down like 3%... Last bottom 1840... 2000 now......get over it
Fed may, may give help then if it gets there
The "global financial oligarchy" as Putin calls it attempted bankruptcy of Russia is having a few undesired side effects.
They can't let the market fall very far or they will lose their political puppet support.
If they suspended open market operations entirely they would all be bumping along the sidewalk on ropes tied to chevy suburbans.
They'll be working on it Sunday evening. Probably have it all fixed up by Mon AM open.
Saudis are making lots of enemies.
yes but the syndicate triple cross is that after the saudis agreed to take down oil prices for their benefit of bankrupting the US shale oil industry, the syndicate then takes oil to $35-40 to destablize Saudi Arabia [part of securing the realm 1996].
Syndicate
Evil = yes
Diabolically Smart = yes
They are really trying to stop the Crude Oil fall: Gartman is LIVE ON CNBC, again!
But the Gartman-Omen is not working anymore.
TPTB are really fucked!
wait - is he bearish of crude? by now everyone knows he's always wrong? or are they still pretending he's a commodities guru? mixed signals, confused...
Yes, he's bearish! He said last week it can go much lower - and then I already thought oh fuck, crude will be right back at a 100 USD/barrel - didn't happen. And now today again he said it can go much much lower.
He must have lost his contrarian-indicator-mojo!?
lol, he was great fade for a while, esp. with PM's and stawks... can't press it too far i guess
If this is a massive naked short this could spell back to a great reverse correction.
How far can this Oil spill go?
Saudi is the covered short. All other producers, paradoxically need to pump more to generate the same revenue, furthering the fall. The Saudi's understand this overshoot process. They just needed to tip the market by not cutting production, and let the virtuous circle/ death spiral do the rest.
Same play as the 80's - see of William Enghdahl's "The Century Of War", page 202
pps 202 and 203 are very interesting. if the history would repeat itself, the crude oil price would be stablized quickly.
Looks to me like the S&P is the 'odd man out'.
Oh, oh, Mary Jo...
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/why-is-the-head-of-the-sec-calling-for-mutual-fund-stress-tests/
And now for the shooting distraction. At or near. Off campus. What is it CNn?
Wheres the guy telling us the BTFD?
BTFD, FGT.
You're not the one I was thinking of, but you will do.
Silvuh, Bitchezz!
:yes:
Oy vey, keep yoh powdah dry, Mortimer
<-Monday it roars back, or
<-Black Monday
Sunday night ES down 15, visions of sugar plums, monday open flat, then slow grinding ramp to 2025-2030 by the close...? what did I win?
so where's the deer?
about time for him to make an apperance, yeah?
oil crunch is a transfer from speculators to consumers... thank you assholes.
Builds character. BTFD
From a daytrading perspective, the Dow was the only relatively easy mark today, heading straight down, after the initial pre-10 bounce all indices saw, with only a modest 2:00 retrace. For SPY, and even more for IWM and QQQ, we saw hellish, complete whipsawing over wide amplitudes that didn’t resolve negatively until after 3:20, with the QQQ’s flirting with positive at one point.
The first hour’s bounce and dump I’ll credit to standard algos, but mid-day it seemed an argument between profit-takers and those trying to save their year ensued, making short profits more slippery than the CNBC headlines might suggest.
'Those trying to save their year ' will make this the December to remember.
And what about Monday? Looks scary enough to me already.
Monday is a liftime away...
Enjoy the weekend like it's your last.
Cue emergency call to Saudi and a cut annoucement tomorrow and gap up Sunday night?
Phony wealth creates phony demand for resources. Eventually the rubber meets the road.
Hey what's that Fear-o-meter saying about now....'holy fuck' level?
CNBC:
"Rosenberg: I don't see Fed raising rates next year"
Huh?!? But they said they would!
welcome NIRP
You can fool some of the people all of the time and those are the marks for the CNBC talking shitheads.
This could be the IT event that kicks everything off. Appreciate the coverage especially considering the amount of flak taken in the process.
yep... alot of pain, alot of risk/ bad debt unwinding, could get very dicey very fastly
As someone short the QQQ's I feel great!
As someone long the IYR's not so much!
Damn, oil's down - what's next, porn viewing down?....
this would have been a fun week if I hadn't gotten wiped out by the previous 15% move up... well still fun to watch, FUCK YOU YELLEN
The blue line on top, looks like it is computer generated, and always remains within a range.
Like I've always said...
When they don't get what they want and most important of all when they lose the bets they've placed, they always take you to war!
We are in the final stretch to see who will be the last one standing!... But unlike any of the ones prior to this one it includes an unpleasant "game of chicken" that has never been played at this level EVER before and will be unsuccessful for all parties involved should it reach fruition!
May the losers that have started it think twice before they go all in!
This is going to make my parents Great Depression look like a walk in the park. Long 2014 Silver Eagles, ammo, and believe it or not... Gold Miners.
Oh yeah, no car payment, mortgage, child support. Life is good.
“Long… Silver Eagles, ammo,… and Gold Miners… Life is good.”
I hate to tell you, but you overlooked a very significant fact of history.
Those who hoard supplies, or prepare for catastrophes are among the first to fall during the proscription that always accompanies social unrest, or slave uprisings.
You also have to focus your attention on how to protect yourself when government-protected fictions evaporate – when everything falls apart. That’s when the proscription begins: a time when dissidents are openly eliminated along with many thousands, or millions, of useless eaters.
What happens during such a proscription? During the French slaughter (1792-4), Judeo-Bolshevik money-lenders withheld food from the market; they blamed shopkeepers, peasants (farmers) and hoarders for such shortages, seized their supplies and paraded them before a Revolutionary Tribunal before carting them off to the guillotine.
During the Russian mass slaughter, they did the same thing, only with a wider net: hooligans, speculators (those with property worth 10,000 roubles or more), anti-socialists, obstructionists, and saboteurs were added to their lists. Their property was seized, they were paraded before a Revolutionary Tribunal before receiving the shot in the nape of the neck.
You think it’s not likely here? Then, why is the Department of Homeland Security modeled after the French committees of terror, the Judeo-Bolshevik Cheka and the Nazi Schutzstaffel?
What does the DHS plan to do with 2-3 billion rounds of ammo… an amount sufficient to wage an Iraqi War, at its highest rate, for 25 years?
Rest assured, your name is on a list, and when the DHS knocks your door down, it will be too late.
There is a better alternative: we have to duplicate what American Founders did, minus their mistakes. (Complete article)
Neglect these lessons of real history at your peril.
? Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
It will be everyone's duty to take as many with them as possible when the time comes.
Great post. I read that before as well.
Right now I consider myself lucky. I failed to mention that I have had the same non Government job for going on twenty years and no credit card debit. Heck, I don't even have a credit card. I spent 8 years in the military before I went to college so I'm ready for anything life throws at me.
Neglect these lessons of real history at your peril.
Your part of the herd that will be led to the slaughter house. I'm going out in a blaze of glory. Last man standing so to speak.
Good luck to you being passive. I guess you didn't mind when bully's took your lunch money either. Just saying.
Information. People have more of it and many understand history and what is to come. Remember when the BLM info was released? 500 million guns and a lot of pissed off people are quite unlike the Pissantry of the past.
You think 'Baby Doc' Obama is misreading the mood of the populace before his 20 day Hawaiian vacation?
Why waste ammo when a broken supply chain will do all that's necessary.
They'll put us against each other. Logistics of death squads is not feasible. Quell rebellion and let us burn each other over scraps. Nice history lesson though....
to Clesthenes: I understand a fine religious man is in charge of DHS so we don't have anything to worry about (not).
I'm just here to BTFDYFI.
I know BTFD but what is YFI?
You fucking idiot
Buy the Fucking Dip you fucking idiot.
See this video...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4
If you do not buy the fucking dip then you are a fucking idiot.
Buy the fucking dip.
Out at the top.....yes this is still the top, now close the door behind you and STFU
I got wood (in more ways than one).
I may be wrong, but I wouldn't want to make my living off of "the skim" in the coming years. If I am wrong, I'll be serving long pig and obese Walfart scooter operators for dinner.
Yummm, tastes like pork.
Long Pork!!!
The other white meat.
Is that racissst?
Only if you had said "The other dark meat"
Awww, this is just TPTB trying to wring the last dime out of "savvy" investors who will BTFD and unwittingly pump the market for one last clean out.
Just like wringing out the last drop of water from a wash cloth. You wring it twice or more to be sure you got every last drop.
Apparently the Oil slide is taking out billionaire HF manager Einhorn and Tesla owner Musk...
Big heads will roll if the Oil lobby loses its underwear.
"Big heads will roll if the Oil lobby loses its underwear."
The undoing of the neocons? One can only hope...
I'm all about that bass
Drill baby, drill!
Krudlow? can you get me some good coke?
Damn the torpedoes. Full speed ahead.
This is great. This is so laughable.
Forward Lemmings. Over the cliff.
We are so fucking doomed.
"Bonus Chart: How much longer can this go on?"
Oh I got this one FO show. "Until it doesn't?"
"You can't handle the truth." - Nicholson
"We're doing God's work." - Blankfien
"U can hamble my toof." - Obama (on instagram)
"...my cold, dead hands." - Heston
Congrats to Meat Hammer. Personally, I, just today, excused myself from a woman who insisted on turning a perfectly good shed with an old wood-burning stove, electric, and a hole in the plank shitter into a faggy Euro-apartment. We spent the past ten weekends, gutting it, and installing everything new. I'm worn the fuck out. This was supposed to be my abode. She fucking ruined it and I did most of the work at her behest. Today, I withdrew my tools and my help as I'd prefer to die in the cold rather than pay some utility a monthly bill.
I wanted to escape the rat race and she (since it's her land and her building) insisted on every modern fucking convenience, costing her money and me time. Now that the snow is flying, I've had enough. We even had a fight over the fact that I would not buy a new 32" flat-screen TV when my 27" analog worked just fine, as if TV was all that important. She's a good woman (somewhere in there), but has warped (sheeple) perceptions.
I continue my search for raw land with or without a shed, house, etc. I'm a pretty good gardener, just looking for the right place, but, for now, it's hunkering down in my foreclosed home until Spring. Thank you, Bank of America.
Thank God I'm still young enough at 61 to do my own work and MAKE UP MY OWN GODDAMN MIND.
Thanks for listening, ZHers. Great comments, BTW. And, yes, we're fucked.
And the obligatory, fuck you, ____________ (fill in blank with most hated politician, banker, wanker; multiple entries encouraged).
You was robbed.
I feel your pain but am blessed with a Woman who has the good sense to pay attention to her Hubby. And I agree, we're truly fucked.
drop her off at Targ-wal-k-mart and just keep fucking driving, find a woman with some sense there are a few out there trust me, and good luck
Congrats, FNE!!! Here's to freedom. Cheers!
Good luck to you as well Meat, enjoyed the previous thread comments ... ballsy move
I'm glad that you walked. Not many men will at 61. I was force marched at about 45. Just a few years later I learned that the women devalue sharply when they turn 52. Young life was fun. At 68, quiet is nice.
don't you mean; Women devalue sharply when they turn 25 ?
He didn't walk for good; he walked for the moment (to save his mental health, such as it is).
Ah, the things that guys will do for a 'steady' supply of Pink.
For all the power of the big head, it's the little head that rules them. Even after all these millenia... just clever monkeys.
Rustic sounds lovely, and wood stoves are great, and who needs a TV at all, but really pooping through a hole in a piece of wood in upstate NY in January with cold wind gusting up sounds awful. A homemade composting toilet might be a reasonable compromise.
"That Was The Week That Was"
Hummm...and the next step towards totalitarian world domination using the ELECTRONIC MONEY-GOD SYSTEM of the beast is...drum roll please...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/yuan-has-real-shot-at-imf-bless...
Duh geee george....do ya thunk they planedded all dis on poipoise?
Gosh...how bad could it get in the great recovery and awesome leadership of the good ship lollipop?
Thanks for the Jack Nicholson line - one of his very best.
Replace "You" with "I", have it tattooed onto every politicians forehead.
Breaking International News. "Ukraine’s new Minister of Economic Development and Trade Aivaras Abromavicius said on Wednesday the country was in fact a bankrupt.
“The state, as a matter of fact, is bankrupt, so, it is simply unrealistic to expect us to offer substantive, rather than merely declarative, programmes of motivation,” he said at a session of the Verkhovna Rada (parliemant) committee for economic policy."
The IMF reports Europe must provide an immediate 17 billion dollar hand out to Kiev in order to prevent total default and shut down of government due to bankruptcy. This is short term aid on top of the recent 15 billion dollar loan. By next year another 25 billion will be needed, and this ALL BEFORE, and restructuring of the economy can occur. That will rewuire 200+ billion dollars, all from Europe.
Wanna see markets crash and riots in the streets of the EU? Just announce this 17 billin dollar hand out in the news papers and TV.
maybe Nuland can generate enough gas for Ukraine this winter.
She must adhere to a diet of refried beans...it may be possible.
If she has a big ass, that will help intensify the farts needed to produce gas.
Have you seen the Mr.? i won't ruin it for you
To Jack Burton: I say it is time that the people tell the government that the jig is up. We know our country is technically bankrupt and all government personnel must accept the fate of individuals that are or were employed by bankrupt companies. When the airlines went bankrupt and the retirees pension funds were insufficient, they had their benefits reduced to 20 % (supplied by pension benfit gaurantee corp). So a pilot , who recently retired at 60 thousand dollars per year was reduced to 12 thousand dollars per year. All government retirees should be treated this way right now. All remaining workers should have they pay reduced by 50% as they are grossly overpaid (with stolen money) and the number of government employees must be reduced by one third. Farm labor jobs are up for grabs by these people. They can be trained by the illegals for a little while and then replace these workers who need to return to Mexico to straighten out their country instead of running away.
Breaking International News. "Ukraine’s new Minister of Economic Development and Trade Aivaras Abromavicius said on Wednesday the country was in fact a bankrupt.
“The state, as a matter of fact, is bankrupt, so, it is simply unrealistic to expect us to offer substantive, rather than merely declarative, programmes of motivation,” he said at a session of the Verkhovna Rada (parliemant) committee for economic policy."
The IMF reports Europe must provide an immediate 17 billion dollar hand out to Kiev in order to prevent total default and shut down of government due to bankruptcy. This is short term aid on top of the recent 15 billion dollar loan. By next year another 25 billion will be needed, and this ALL BEFORE, and restructuring of the economy can occur. That will rewuire 200+ billion dollars, all from Europe.
Wanna see markets crash and riots in the streets of the EU? Just announce this 17 billin dollar hand out in the news papers and TV.
That's what I call a money pit. Cut your losses and run.
In an interview on Ukrainian television, the chief from the Ukraine Central Bank has finally admitted that “in the vaults of the central bank there is diddly squat gold left. There is a small amount of gold bullion left, but it’s just 1% of reserves.”
http://newswire-24.com/2014/11/19/ukraine-official-admits-on-tv-there-is...
Those that have fed the wolves...should have no troubles when they bite their hands off...hummmm...maybe moar!
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/storm-shows-americans-are-totally-...
Of course, what else are you gonna get in the purposely contrived and created and all love so much, chaos?
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/storm-shows-americans-are-totally-...
Dropping oil prices add a new surprising new dimension to the stability of the world financial system. While often heralded as a godsend to the economy and the end consumer we must remember lower prices hurt both producers and those in the business of oil exploration, drilling, and sales.
When financial problems occur in the energy sector it is often accompanied by political instability and sometimes her ugly sister war. As a rule the economy loves stability, bottom-line dropping oil prices means more risk for an already shaky world economy. All this is being complicated by the recently strong dollar.
The dollars strength and the rising American stock market could also be taken as a sign of an unstable global economy. The money flowing in from other countries in search of a safe home screams of a bigger problem! When a strong shift in currencies occurs someone usually gets hurt and this can lead to bankruptcy, default, or contagion.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/11/dropping-oil-prices-increase-risk-to.html
Dropping oil prices add a new surprising new dimension to the stability of the world financial system.
NO!!!
Dropping oil prices add a new surprising new dimension to the INSTABILITY of the world financial system.
So sorry. But that was not written well, Bruce.
But I DO KNOW what you really meant.
Okay, I'll take the bullish side.
On next Monday or Tuesday the strong hands of Manipulatorosaurus rex will quietly begin to cover the shorts it put on in the last few weeks. And soon start buying more of the Dow stocks with the profits from the move down.
In the Dow's climb from 6500 to the present, it's hard to believe that there is any Dow stock left in weak hands and that the float of those 30 odd stocks can't be sucked up by a Dirt Devil.
When Nuland announces through Poroshenko that the Christmas Cease-fire is holding and the EU says some of the sanctions on Russia will be lifted and France will certainly be able to deliver the Mistral to Russia....
The only question left for ZH to answer will be will the Dow stop somewhere in the 18 thousands or will it just charge right into the 19 thousands?
I have a question. Over the past few weeks shorts have been hammered in the top 20 or so most shorted stocks. How far down the list did TPTB go? The top 20? The top 30? I am looking for a cutoff number and am thinking about playing those below the cutoff number if one actually exists. If there a website where I can dredge this info up all at once?
Thanks in advance.
We have been warning people for at least 3 or 4 years this was going to happen. Now the nails are going into the coffin. There are other acts to follow I am sure, but this week we have seen some very strong and strange moves. Some people laugh at people who knows a thing or two about history, but history has a way of repeating itself. I don't want the economy to go down, but if you keep playing with fire, you are going to get burned. Some people would do well to heed some of those conspiracies out there as a way to know what is coming. Not all conspiracies are not true but not taking financial responsibility is great way to wind up in trouble. I hope you are prepared if things make a turn for the worse. The hand writing is on the wall. I don't care for the New World Order, but the signs are strong that it will not be long before the NWO takes place. I wish all a good day.
I'm sure you say this every time the stock market drops. How boring.
I'm with Bid Boy. You can bet your knickers this entire thing will be fixed but good by 3:30, Tuesday. Anyone betting against it is a fucking fool.
Perhaps it is time to start unraveling the master chess game, and unfortunately, right now we have no Bobbie Fischer either in the White House or in our governmental structure to counter the oppostion's Gary Kasparov. Putin is no choir boy, but neither is he a fool. He has stated that he wishes to do to America that which America had done to Russia (well - actually to the Soviet Union - but Putin's recollections of history also have their senior moments) and that is, to finish them off, not militarily, but economically. And it is quite apparent that, over the past several years, Putin and his entourage have been playing chess, while Obama and his cacaphony have been playing checkers (or possibly tiddlywinks - by inference I may be insuting the fine game of Checkers here), and in the context of such a framework, one has to consider whether or not Putin and his folks have suckered the US into a financial trap. For astute economic observers, it is beccoming increasingly clear that declining oil prices are going to burst a massive financial energy bubble that has been hiding in plain site under the code word "shale". As in any battle, both sides are going to get hurt, but the winner will be the one who can survive the first battle to eventually win the war. And in the long run, the price war is going to burst the shale / deepwater / bitumen bubble, drive up the cost of fracked natural gas (as oil / NGL's have been subsidizing otherwise uneconomic methane in these wells), and destroy the economics of the renewable sector (as it is now completely priced out of the market). The result will be the collapse of a large portion of the energy plays and their underlying debt structures, which have been the only true sources of US economic recovery since 2008. This was our plan B, and it may well be that Putin has goaded the US into commiting economic "ritual seppuku". That is the mark of a true chess master.
Putin only has until the end of his current term to pull this one out of his hat (contrary to popular belief, the only way Putin could ever have a chance of over turning the Russian constitution to give himself a third term would be to take down the US) - this is an all or nothing game for him, and the US, by medlling in Ukraine, drew the first card in the final hand. The timing is too cute (beginning of winter when gas - not oil - is a key European commodity that currently only Russia can supply), the US has multiple foreign affairs issues to deal with that are not going well (Ukraine, Syria, ISIS, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq), Russia has secured strong allies that will provide it with enough economic reinforcements to be able to weather this fight (China, India and many other countries), the Russians have isolated themselves from direct financial pressures through their previous repatriation of foreign debt (although currency markets are proving to be, and will continue to prove to be, troublesome in the short to mid term), Putin has cultivated and developed a very high personal approval rating in his own country (which gives him much more leeway in the event that he loses a few battles along the way), and Russia has orchestrated with the other BRICS the development of an alternative global financial system to replace a US reserve based one, (alternative to the world bank, COMEX, SWIFT, charge cards etc all in place or quickly being put in place); all of which gives the Russians the strategic high ground in an economic battle. Does this sound like complete serendipity, or more like the work of a master chess player. The secret of the ambush is that the losing party is most often the architect of their own demise, and they do not see it coming until it is too late (gotta love that first world educational system ...)
It's too bad that we always prepare for the last war - we can now fight just about any physical war; howver we are woefully unprepared for the full bore economic and financial dust up that we have talked ourselves into.
Do you guys know any, I repeat any, metaphor other than that blithering chess and checkers canard? Come on, I know Russia only has cheap copies of stolen technologies but somebody over there ought to be able to come up with something other than this mindless repetitive nonsense that would make a parrot scream with frustration.
Surely Russia is known for something other than their fixation on a medieval game that has nothing to do with the human wave attacks the last time they ever needed any strategy.
Nestng dolls, oily vodka that you douse with pepper to get the toxic chemicals to sink to the bottom, crumbling concrete, anything. Come on, help me out here... There has to be something other than P-K4 in the national repertoire of political similes.
Are you saying that if you douse oily vodka with pepper the toxic chemicals sink to the bottom?
Well, that's the metaphor you're looking for.
When the toxic chemicals of Russian vodka sink to the bottom, they meet your oily arguments there.
They swiftly embrace and tumble headlong into the abyss of oily, toxic reasoning.
Generally speaking, during a "bloodbath" aren't the "vampires" sucking in a lot of moola?
After the Congressional Taxpayer Guarantee put on all bets made by the Wall Street Casino, ah...nevermind.
Here is something that might help.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Thanks
ooooh, look at all the pretty colors
Bankrupt the Russians.
It'll bankrupt us too.
...
"QE4... comin' up!"
And instead of $85 billion/month Janet, Dudley, Williams and Evans will double or triple it.
It'll be the starting death roll of the US dollar.
Posted elsewhere but hoping for traffic to yield something here.
It would be great to see volume measures - actual consumption - as opposed to just price measures. Prices are falling, not just because there is excess supply relative to demand, but, that anticipated demand, in my opinion, must also be seen to be falling perhaps even more. I think quantity demanded (at whatever price) is falling - in other words an inward shift in the demand curve rather than a movement along. Price is really just a monetary phenomenon. Doesn't mean much if it is not associated with quantity purchased. For example, you could have $100 oil, but, if volume demanded is diminishing, then as a producer, the price doesn't matter much.
It would be good to see not only consumption measures, but, also the distribution - where the oil is consumed (manufacturing, fuel, products, etc.). Just an ask, not a complaint. cheers ZH'ers.
Port Moody, Canada
I say the Ruble will trade at 1 cent US by this summer!It's dropping in value faster than the Mark in Weimar Germany did in the 1920's!
But, in that case Germany lost a war against the assembled Allied powers after four long years.
In this case, Russia has lost its war and failed in its invasion of Ukraine in only a few months!!!!
WOW!
Here's the latest;
Russian Ruble Hits New Low Of 57 To Dollar
December 12, 2014
The Russian ruble fell below 57 to the dollar in trading on December 12, continuing a slide that has cut its value nearly in half this year.
The ruble's value against the dollar and the euro has continued to decline despite Russia's effort to shore it up by raising a key interest rate by one percentage point on December 11, the fifth increase this year.
The ruble was trading at about 57.31 to the dollar at midday on the Moscow exchange and later fell below 57.5.
One euro was buying more than 71 rubles.
The Russian central bank raised its key interest rate from 9.5 percent to 10.5 percent on December 11 -- and almost double the rate of 5.5 percent in March, when President Vladimir Putin set off a tense confrontation with the West by annexing Crimea from Ukraine.
The ruble and Russia's energy-reliant economy have been battered for months by falling world oil prices and sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, and other nations over Moscow's seizure of Crimea and its support for pro-Russian separatists fighting government forces in eastern Ukraine.
The central bank said it would continue to raise its key rate "in the case of further aggravation of inflation risks."
Andrei Klepach, deputy CEO of Russia's Vnesheconombank, said the rate hike was unlikely to help the ruble but would have "a negative impact on the economy."
Klepach said that "rates are already quite high and therefore one percentage point changes little."
Some investors said the central bank intervened on December 12 to avert a steeper decline.
Aleksei Vorobyov, head of the foreign-exchange-operations department at Vozrozhdenie bank in Moscow, said he believed the bank "went out to defend the 58-ruble mark" by selling hundreds of millions of dollars.
The central bank said it had conducted nearly $200 million worth of forex market interventions on December 10.
Russian share prices were also on the decline on December 12, with the RTS index falling more than 4 percent in early trading before recovering modestly.
The ruble has lost about 42 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar and 36 percent against the euro since the beginning of the year.
The central bank has predicted that the country's economy was unlikely to see any growth in 2015 or 2016.
The Russian government recently revised its economic forecast for 2015, predicting a drop of 0.8 percent instead of 1.2 percent growth.....
Please provide proof of Russian invasion of Ukraine...like real proof.
Roger that. It's more like NATO took over most part of Ukraine, a non-NATO country. Go figure...
Which part of the Pentagon do you shit in ?
simpler, what dick you not sucked yet.
Oh, surely they won't do anything in response, like Pearl Harbor?
"...Russia has lost its war and failed in its invasion of Ukraine in only a few months!!!"
Typical swill from a .gov shill...
December 12, 2014
The Russian ruble fell below 58 to the dollar in trading on December 12, continuing a slide that has cut its value nearly in half this year.
The ruble's value against the dollar and the euro has continued to decline despite Russia's effort to shore it up by raising a key interest rate by one percentage point on December 11, the fifth increase this year.
The ruble was trading at about 57.31 to the dollar at midday on the Moscow exchange and later fell below 57.5.
One euro was buying more than 71 rubles.
The Russian central bank raised its key interest rate from 9.5 percent to 10.5 percent on December 11 -- and almost double the rate of 5.5 percent in March, when President Vladimir Putin set off a tense confrontation with the West by annexing Crimea from Ukraine.
The ruble and Russia's energy-reliant economy have been battered for months by falling world oil prices and sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, and other nations over Moscow's seizure of Crimea and its support for pro-Russian separatists fighting government forces in eastern Ukraine.
The central bank said it would continue to raise its key rate "in the case of further aggravation of inflation risks."
Andrei Klepach, deputy CEO of Russia's Vnesheconombank, said the rate hike was unlikely to help the ruble but would have "a negative impact on the economy."
Klepach said that "rates are already quite high and therefore one percentage point changes little."
Some investors said the central bank intervened on December 12 to avert a steeper decline.
Aleksei Vorobyov, head of the foreign-exchange-operations department at Vozrozhdenie bank in Moscow, said he believed the bank "went out to defend the 58-ruble mark" by selling hundreds of millions of dollars.
The central bank said it had conducted nearly $200 million worth of forex market interventions on December 10.
Russian share prices were also on the decline on December 12, with the RTS index falling more than 4 percent in early trading before recovering modestly.
The ruble has lost about 42 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar and 36 percent against the euro since the beginning of the year.
The central bank has predicted that the country's economy was unlikely to see any growth in 2015 or 2016.
The Russian government recently revised its economic forecast for 2015, predicting a drop of 0.8 percent instead of 1.2 percent growth.
So the ruble is worth about 15 cents to the dollar?
Well, that's ok, 15 cents is more than our dollar is worth anyway...Putin, winning!
the clown with no opinion of his own. must be an ex-drone pilot
Looks pretty grim!!
Almost all of the "grown ups" have closed down for the year. Most of the rest will close next week. The adolescents will be running amok until January 5th. Even the "algos" will be restricted until then.
Great time for a small-size trader!
As predicted here last week...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/oil-light-sweet-crudeelliott-wave-upd...
and here
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dow-jones-industrial-averageelliott-w...
and don't forget about Europe...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/as-early-as-2011-ewis-analysis-warned...
Last chance to get your stacks of bullets, beans, and sardines order.
Pockycylpse in 3... 2... 1
"...you have to ask yourself if you feel lucky today. Well, do ya punk"?
not much of a santa claus rally
Art the Fart Cashin was on cbnc saying it's balls to the fucking deck the halls for Santa.
The fat man has kids on his mind....not the wanking fuckin bankers....satan is on their side...fuck them....
FAIL Cashin....look...why the flying fuck are you even ON cbnc?
Jesus tits man!
Cogently stated.
Did anyone else lose zerohedge tweets this morning at 10:03cst? I haven't gotten anything all day...still.
GLP, where you can get both breaking news and the most recent Jesus sitings, is down.