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Paying Down The Debt Is Now Almost Mathematically Impossible
Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,
Exactly 199 years ago, in 1815, a “temporary” committee was established in the US Senate called the Committee on Finance and Uniform National Currency.
It was set up to address economic issues and the debt accrued by the US government after the War of 1812.
Of course, because there’s nothing more permanent than a temporary government measure, the committee became a permanent one after just one year.
It soon expanded its role from raising tariffs to having influence over taxation, banking, currency, and appropriations.
In subsequent wars, notably the American Civil War, the Committee was quick to use its powers and introduced the union’s first income tax. They also detached the dollar from gold to help fund the war.
This was all an indication of things to come.
Over the subsequent decades there was a sustained push to finally establish the country’s central bank that will control money and credit, as well as institute a permanent income tax to feed the expanding aspirations of government.
They succeeded in 1913 when the Federal Reserve Act was passed and the 16th Amendment ratified, binding the country in the shackles of central banking and taxation of income.
Over the century that followed, the US has gone from being the biggest creditor in the world to its biggest debtor.
Decades of expanding government programs, waste, endless and costly wars, etc. have racked up such an enormous pile of debt that it has become almost impossible to pay it down.
A lot of folks don’t realize that, since the end of World War II, the US government’s total tax revenue has been almost constant at roughly 17% of GDP.
In other words, even though the actual tax rates themselves rise and fall, the government’s ‘slice’ of the economic pie is almost always the same - 17%.
I’ve worked out a mathematical model which shows that, even with absurd assumptions (7%+ GDP growth for years at a time, low interest rates, etc.), it is simply not feasible for the US government to ‘grow’ its way out.
Default has become the only option. And that could mean a number of things.
They could default on their creditors (other governments like China who loaned money to the US government). But this would spark a global financial and banking crisis.
They could default on the Federal Reserve, which owns trillions of dollars of US debt. But this would create an epic currency crisis for the US dollar.
They could also default on their obligations to their citizens—primarily to future beneficiaries of Social Security (who collectively own trillions of dollars of US debt).
Or they could choose to default on their obligations to every human being alive who holds US dollars… and engineer rampant inflation.
None of these is a good option. And simply put, the US government has reached a point of no return.
I aim to demonstrate this to you in today’s video podcast episode. It’s a very sobering realization.
Join me to see it for yourself:
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A benevolent junta would certainly see to that.
Almost? It was never meant to be paid down.
Certainly not after Grover Norquist and his comic sidekick, Ronald Reagan, took office.
People have been saying this for a loooonnnngggg ttttiiiiimmmmeeeee.
If it were true that collapse is inevitable for the reasons given, then collapse would already have occurred.
There is in fact another option: continuance of the status quo, with gradual and controlled inflation.
In addition, as the economy recovers and expands, the debt picture changes. As recently as 1999, the federal government ran a surplus.
“….There is in fact another option: continuance of the status quo, with gradual and controlled inflation. ...”
This might work if it were just one nation. But we have a whole world out of control printing money. So inflation will not happen.
You are either deceived, ignorant of real mathematics, or a faux-Hebrew/Babylonian/Khazarian/Chosenite/Keynesian deceiver. The so-called "national debt" was intentionally created when the FED and unconstitutional personal income tax was laid upon the backs of the American People by a corrupt cadre of wealthy political manipulators, corrupt judiciary, and federal bureaucrats working for the Rothchildes/Rockefeller Internatioal (stateless) wealthy Chosenites of Europe and America. It was, from the outset never intended to be repaid, as there is never enough currency created when debt-money is created to repay the debt with the added usury attached to it, requiring the creation of more debt-money to pay the prior debt and the added usury, thereby compounding the debt to infinity. It was intended, and has succeeded exceedingly in confiscating real assets and personal wealth of individuals, and controlling national economies, food production, and goyim governments of the World.
Fractional reserve banking, using debt-money creation, elevated to the level of worldwide central banking has impoverished all the producing, non-Chosenite, peoples of the world. It will certainly bring about the ultimate collapse of all nations who have fallen prey to the resulting mathematical certainty of infinitely compounding usury.
An internetaional currency reset will only serve to solidify and expand the power and control of those shadowy Chosenite impresarios who have instituted and manipulated the laws and the regulating of the evil system to their current advantage.
Soon they will have nothing left worth consuming but each other........Worldwide war to finally determine the Chosenite-In-Chief!.....As until there is but ONE Chosenite in control, the lust for power will not be satiated.
Read the end of The Book, the story has already been told. It does not end well for the Prime Chosenite who thinks, for a short time, that he has finally won it all.
"Contolled inflation"
That would be funny if it weren' t so sadly naive
Sir...
You are alone in mentioning collapse. However, there are a dozen ways to skip a default. Ah, 1999. The very year Glass-Steagall was repealed.there was no surplus in 1999. it was accounting shenanigans.
Was it ever mathematically possible?
No, the government's slice of the economic pie is not "almost exactly the same - 17%" all the time. It varies in a range. Until Bush cut taxes, it averaged 17.4%, with minimum of 14.1% and maximum of 20.5%. Last year, it was 16.7%. This year's estimate is 17.3%, and is estimated to rise to nearly 19% in future years. Outlays are currently running along at around 21% of GDP. That needs to come down, clearly. Cut that down to 18.5% of GDP, 2.5% of $17 trillion, which is about $425 billion per year of spending we need to reduce, about 17% of the current estimated spend. If we do that, then we should be reducing the debt by about $85 billion/yr.
Not only is it mathematically impossible to pay off the debt, under our present system of currency creation---via one mechanism only, namely debt-assumption through signatures on promissory notes to the 0.001% financial class---such an action would result in the complete extinguishment of our money supply when all debts are paid off!
The general public must come to understand the complete insanity of our present banking mechanism. Money is only created when some party signs a promissory note to the bankster class. That is it. We don't have a stand-alone money in the hands of the citizenry, not here in the United States nor anywhere else on the entire planet.
The bankers create this 'money' ex nihilo---out of the ether---by indebting you! When 'loans' are paid off, the 'money' is extinguished.
Until this is properly understood by more people we will continue our headlong march into neofeudalism, lead by our clueless Congresscritters and their infantile delusions about the nature of money in the modern world.
It is time to put on 'big-boy' pants and destroy this false monetary system.
Modern mathematics is just an invention of various Caucasian racist pigs (Greeks, "A"-rabs(Algebra), and white Euro racists like Newton(Calculus)etc...)that tends to have a really great track record of predicting things.
I firmly believe in the TPTB's ability to overcome mathematics' innate racism much like overcoming the racism of gravity.
Now, pass that next shot of Jaegar Meister with yet another beer chaser into my empty stomach.
I would like to ask these qustions.
Will the UK ever be able to pay down its debt?
Will Japan ever be able to pay down its debt?
Will the EU ever be able to pay down its debt?
On the first page of comments, far above, NoDebt and Stackers already made the most important points, that the MAD Money as Debt system started long ago, and automatically got worse at an exponential rate, which point can be most clearly seen when one recognizes that under that MAD Money As Debt system, IF there was no more of that debt based "money" then there would be no more "money" at all.
As stated by NoDebt & Stackers:
"Paying down the debt became mathematically impossible when the first dollar was borrowed under our pure fiat system. Don't confuse the point at which the problem becomes acute with the point at which the problem actually started. ... Anyone who even talks about paying down the national debt has no idea how our money system works. To pay off debt is to decrease the money supply. ..."
Under the currently established systems, paying off debts destroys the public "money" supply, which therefore automatically destroys itself, the more that tended to be accomplished. The basic point has been that the international bankers successfully applied the methods of organized crime to the dominate the political processes, in order to legal the counterfeiting of the public "money" supply out of nothing as debts. That system was always INSANE, because it was due to the best organized gang of criminals, the biggest gangsters, the banksters, capturing control over the power of governments, and thereby effectively privatizing those powers.
The deeper problems are
MEASUREMENT BACKED BY MURDER.
That fact was manifested by the ways that
the public "money" supply has become
systems of ENFORCED FRAUDS.
THOSE ENFORCED FRAUDS HAVE NECESSARILY GOTTEN WORSE, FASTER, AT AN EXPONENTIALLY ACCELERATING RATE, PARTICULARLY SINCE 1971, WHEN THOSE FRAUDS BECAME COMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM ANY CONNECTIONS TO THE PHYSICAL WORLD, OTHER THAN THE HIDDEN CONNECTIONS REGARDING THE ABILITY TO BACK UP LEGALIZED LIES WITH LEGALIZED VIOLENCE.
The essential political problem is that the debt controls are backed by the death controls, therefore, when the debt slavery systems runaway to create debt insanities, the only actual "corrections" must become some series of psychotic breakdowns of the established systems, which provoke death insanities. Furthermore, any genuine longer term better resolutions would require better death controls, in order to back up better debt controls. However, the systems exist now due to the REAL history of the best death controls being done through the maximum possible deceits, which then backed up the best debt controls being done through the maximum possible frauds. The ACTUAL systems are that the governments are the biggest form of organized crime, controlled by the best organized gangs of criminals. The only genuinely better resolutions to those situations would require better organized crime, because the fundamentals must necessarily be that MONEY IS MEASUREMENT BACKED BY MURDER.
Of course, our civilization is almost totally dominated by the biggest bullies' bullshit social stories, which lie about themselves to the maximum possible degree, all the way through from some of the most important aspects of the philosophy of science, throughout every particular aspect of politics. As usual on Zero Hedge, this article above grossly understates how serious the problems are, and therefore, is able to grossly underestimate what the possible "solutions" to those problems may be. Meanwhile, some of the comments better hit the nail on the head, regarding the analysis of the problems, however, virtually nobody promotes any genuinely better solutions, because there can NOT actually be any better resolutions, given the degree to which our civilization is already criminally insane!
The established systems, along with the controlled opposition groups, are able to almost totally dominate the public debates, in ways which make sure that those public debates are almost totally dominated by absurd bullshit. There is deliberately no more scientific perceptions of basic human ecology, and how human civilizations operate as general energy systems within their environment. Instead, social successes were built on the basis of being best able to back up lies with violence. America is currently dominated by two utterly absurd State Religions, its monetary system and national security, while the vast majority of Americans do not perceive the degree to which those ARE absurd State Religions, which are based on the history of being able to back up lies with violence automatically becoming more psychotic the more successfully done that was.
Our political economy is based on organized lies, operating robberies, which get to promote themselves as being the opposite of what they actually are, while the controlled opposition to those established systems also promote the same sorts of impossible ideals about the political economy should be. America was leading the world in the development of integrated systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, whose success has driven those to become more and more criminally insane at an exponential accelerating rate.
As that debt slavery system develops numbers which have become more blatantly obvious debt insanities, relatively more people are noticing that. However, the basic underlying situation is still the same as it always was, only amplified to more astronomical SIZES by advances in science and technology, so that we now have globalized electronic monkey money, backed by apes with atomic bombs, which overall situation is more criminally insane and out of control than we can currently comprehend, especially since those established systems, along with their controlled opposition groups, do not want to understand that.
From a more sublime perspective, I probably waste my time attempting to point out the facts that I have outlined above, because the established systems, and their controlled opposition groups, are far too criminally insane to care about relatively more rational evidence and logical arguments. While we theoretically should better understand the problems, in order to be able to develop genuinely better resolutions, in fact, we are inside of a runaway fascist plutocracy juggernaut, building a fascist police state that is going to become even more criminally insane and self-destructive, especially since that system is almost totally dominated by professional liars, and immaculate hypocrites, promoting bullshit to mainstream morons and Zombie Sheeple, which continues to be only more relatively successful ENFORCEMENT OF FRAUDS, driving society to become even more psychotically insane.
Inside of the globalized context of electronic monkey money, backed by apes with atomic bombs, the problems of the American Dollar and American Military, becoming runaway debt insanities and death insanities has no theoretically better resolutions than through a series of intellectual scientific revolutions, which would enable better understanding of those problems. HOWEVER, it is the deeper nature of those problems themselves that they are too criminally insane to be able to care how criminally insane they are, while those who were relatively successful within those systems to not want to understand the basic fact that MONEY IS MEASUREMENT BACKED BY MURDER, which means that no better murder systems to back up better money systems appear possible ... especially since those who were relatively successful within those systems have no other plans than to continue to double down on how criminally insane they already are.
For some reason you just can't say it, RM, can you?
We are past the point of no return, my friend.
We shall never return to the place from which we started.
There are no options. If we want to rid ourselves of these evil miscreants, there is only this:
“Let there be justice, though the world perish.”
Indeed, since the injustice is so extreme, it appears that the human world is going to perish due to its own madness. Any ability to develop better ecological economics, within a system based on making "money" out of nothing, appears practically impossible, especially since, by the time enough people recognize that, it will be too late. As many others have observed, we are decades, at least, too late, to start adapting to live differently, in ways whereby enforced frauds do not continue to drive us to live in criminally insane ways. The world is so far, far out of balance that apparently only the human world perishing is the way that will be balanced. Human society is so totally dominated by systems of lies backed by violence, because those were so successful within that human world, that it is almost impossible to estimate the degree to which that has driven the destruction of the natural world to be irreparable.
I have spent several decades attempting to DO something about that social insanity, only to discover that the more I learned, the worse it got, because the people who are the best at being dishonest, and backing that up with violence, continue to dominate society more and more, and so, things constantly get more insane everyday, while there appear no practical ways to prevent that from happening, as it does, automatically getting worse, faster ... I get by with irrational hopes for finite miracles, and transcendental hope for the ways that the conservation of energy may continue to drive evolutionary ecologies, despite that the human world is based on the maximum possible deceits and frauds, wherein people are able to continue to behave like monkeys and apes, despite having the industrial revolutions deliver to them powers which are trillions of times greater.
Since the continued survival of civilization is looking like that would deliver powers and capabilities which would become quadrillions of times greater, but those would end up still primarily being employed by some people to control other people with lies backed by violence, while those social systems are deliberately ignoring everything else outside of continuing to be able to do that, the world has developed such extreme injustice that it is not hard to comprehend how the human world perishing might be the only way that justice could be served.
Human beings are driving the sixth great extinction of other life forms, in ways which display no compassion, and so, are headed towards causing their own extinction. However, since the human world continues to be almost totally dominated by systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, we collectively continue to prepare to commit suicide. Debt slavery has "successfully" driven numbers which have become debt insanities, which are set to provoke human death insanities. However, the same systems of enforced frauds, wherein "money" is made out of nothing to "pay" for everything, is much more psychotically out of touch with the natural world, than it is merely driving runaway social polarization. The social triumphs of enforcing frauds produced a criminally insane society!
As the ancient anonymous saying goes: "Whom the gods would destroy, they first drive mad." The human species is so totally dominated by systems of lies backed by violence, that we have collectively become criminally insane. Since there appears nothing within the human world that can stop that criminal insanity from continuing to get worse, faster, therefore, the resulting extreme degree of injustice, on a globalized scale, causing more and more other species to go extinct, faster and faster, appears to indicate that "justice" in that context would be the human species finally causing its own extinction.
After several decades of attempting to prevent that tragedy from unfolding, I have been gradually forced to face the facts that there is no practically possible ways to do that. The human world continues to be controlled by systems of lies, backed by violence, despite those enforced frauds causing us to behave in more criminally insane ways! The only way that the "justice" of evolutionary ecologies appears to be able to influence systems of electronic monkey money, backed by apes with atomic bombs, is for them to finally destroy themselves.
The most fundamental principles of physics are all pretty well deliberately ignored, or understood backwards, within the civilization that now dominates the world, as systems of organized lies, operating robberies, which have become too criminally insane to recognize how extremely far out of balance they are becoming, since they deliberately ignore those basic laws of nature, which are the reasons how and why things finally do balance. Since we ARE being driven that far out of balance, indeed, the final "solutions" may be that drastic!
“Let there be justice, though the world perish," is a saying that currently seems to indicate that human world will perish!
We're screwed no matter what we do, but here's a plan to not immediately re-screw ourselves once we climb back out of the hole (in about 50 years):
Cut the military by 90%. We have nukes; no foreign army is going to invade. Close all foreign bases and all non-essential bases in the US.
Repeal the Patriot Act and the National Security Act of 1947. No more CIA, NSA, TSA, DoD (we'd go back to the Department of War). Cut the State Dept budget by 75%.
Cut Social Security and Medicare by 25% each year for the next four years, giving old people time to make arrangements to move in with their kids, then abolish them ("them" being SS/Medicare, not the old people).
Repeal all laws that create victimless crimes and stop throwing people in prison for non-violent offenses, and cut law enforcement/prisons/courts by 60%.
End every program and department that does nothing more than redistribute wealth (this would end about half of all federal jobs).
The "foreign army" (Liberals, Zionists, progressives, Islamunists, bankster Babylonians, and the imbecilic Black Plague) to which you refer has already invaded and markedly infested the U.S. Government and turned it against the U.S. Constitution and the American People.
The most powerful and dangerous enemy the American People have ever faced is now the United States Government and the satanic scourge which now infests that lawless political institution.
Starve The Beast!!
please...you all do not have a clue how credit systsems work...first off...The public debt is what the US Governmnet has borrowed from the total credit market debt which is around 58 Trillion dollars.
18 trillion or 31% of teh total credit market debt.
according to the FED only about 3% of teh total credit market debt is in teh form of Federal reserve notes...the rest of the 58 trillion dollar credit supply of the USA is composed of electrinic polarity differentials on hard disk platters...bits of information...bit coins.
now all this credit is debt owed to someone esle and ultimatly back to the commercial bank that created it.
the working population fo teh USA is around 140 million.
$414.285 that is what every worker owes ultimately...the debt they are serviceing the continued existance of...since when you pay down debt...the money supply which is composed of credit which is debt owed to someone else and ultimately back to the bank that created it...returns back into thin air from where it came from.
So the only way to keep the credit supply from imploding to absolute 0 is to constantly create more new debt to sustain the explosion up to absolute 1
It was impossible to pay off teh debt as soon as it was created since you all supply real power to teh master and the master converts the real power into fake power or money the servant of the master you all slave for.
The master owns the money supply which is composed of credit which is debt owed to someone else and ultimately back to the bank that created it...
You all rent the servant from the master and the cost to pay teh rent is hidden in the prices of everything.
you all will never be out of debt...until of course it become impossible for you all to sustain the constant exponetial inflation of the money supply.
when your demands for yield from you all become greater than the yield you supply to you all...then you will be negatively yielding...and the credit systsem along with what you all call civilization implodes back into thin air from where it came from.
you saw this in 2008...that is where the USA reached maximum potential after 64 years following teh implementation of teh 1944 bretton woods global trade agreement...1 2 4 8 16 32 64.
that was the beginning of the end for the USA and post WW2 global trade system...you all in the USA and world have been in a controlled collapse ever since.
you all lauging at the sheep...are sheep...just higher up in the hierarchy of sheep
Dsylexic, but essentially correct.
"... also detached the dollar from gold to help fund the war." - it wasn't attached prior. There was no national currency. It was gold held by the Federal Government. Without plunder no army can be afforded. Inflation is a modern form of plunder.
"They could default on their creditors (other governments like China who loaned money to the US government). But this would spark a global financial and banking crisis." - no it would not. Both nations can print money. Both can bailout their own contries, friends and allies. While it may affect those with trillions of assets, the common man will not feel the brunt.
"They could default on the Federal Reserve, which owns trillions of dollars of US debt. But this would create an epic currency crisis for the US dollar." - no it does not. The fed can offset any losses. There is no limitation. It is all done with a flick of a switch. And most interest paid to the fed goes right back to the government anyway. There would be no effect.
"They could also default on their obligations to their citizens..." - political suicide? Maybe after many seniors have passed away and become a political minority. no any default of this type will be on those whom have the least political affluence. And government agencies will shrink over time. You are starting to see this with minorities and unions pension plans.
"Or they could choose to default on their obligations to every human being alive who holds US dollars… and engineer rampant inflation." - And how does this work? Very few people who have US dollars have US securities. They are too different entities. Banks have excess reserves beyond such securities.
This article, like much on this website is fictional. It has a lot of people who don't know what they are talking about, talking to a lot of other people who don't know what they are talking about. Many of you should learn something about money. Oh and just because you trade does not mean you know what you are talking about.
If there is default it will be strategic over a long term. Government properties will be sold, government benefits slashed, government will will get smaller and smaller all of which is good for economies and markets btw. Unless people started to borrow a lot of money, there will be no monetary inflation. ANd when they do, it will not be hyperinflation.
When the debt created by the amoral bankster descendents of the Babylonians is laid on the backs of the citizens subjected to use of the debt money, then the "plunder" is actually the "plunder" and impoverishment of the native citizens of the debt-money entity.
It is, and has been, mathematically unpayable from the very first fiat dollar printed. All of the charlatans involved in the creation of the FED knew from the outset that the system they created would suck all the wealth from the producing class of America and ultimately indebt and impoverish and ultimately destroy the free nation that had given them succor in a dangerous world.
It is a Satanic irony that the same Chosenites that produced the Savior of humanity has inflicted such misery and evil and so many wars upon the world.
All nations that have fallen prey to the fractional reserve fiat debt-money central banking scheme will inevitably enter into a devolutionary economic vortex and finally collapse under the weight of unpayable national, corporate, and personal debt. If you don't believe that, you need to repeat third grade math and set aside your Phd. in economics.
Starve The Beast!!
I just want to be clear on what you are saying in your last paragraph.
1. The US Govt debt - currently $18 Billion and the unfunded liabilities at $whatever amount - will grow and can grow without a problem indefinately.
2. Payback (retirement of these amounts) need not happen.
3. Stretegiicaly - through asset sales, seniors dying and reducing SS obligations, smaler govt spending the long term debt situation will be better.
4. There are therefore no problems with anyone, including foreign governments and central banks holding US debt.
FULL FAITH IN THE FED AND ITS PERPETUAL BORROWERS, - THE US GOVERNMENT AND MAJOR BANKS DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN IN THE WORLD, IS THE SINGLE RUNG AT THE TOP OF THE PROVERBIAL LADDER THAT WE ALL REST ON. ALL HAIL THE FED ??????????????????????????
If deflation were to occur the debt would become even more of an issue. For a while I was one of the people concerned we would see the world tumble into a massive deflationary cycle as debts went unpaid and credit collapsed. Now I have come to think inflation is getting closer every day.
This would mean the "major deflationary period" is mostly behind us and it has not been disinflation as much as inflation being kept in check because of several factors, including where the money flowed, weak demand, dropping velocity of money, and the onetime benefit of lower interest rates.
Before you discount the possibility that we will move directly from where we are into stagflation then hyperinflation please consider that hyperinflation paves the way for governments and those in power to make a transition to a replacement currency and a reset of the whole system. Below is more of the argument against deflation.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/11/deflation-i-think-not.html
Inevitably, we must return to a Free Banking system. The Fed has run itself into the ground; we cannont continue. Individual states and banks and people must now look to create independant small scale operations to replace the current system.
I did a quick "best case analysis" on this years ago and found the same conclusion:
Let's use only mathematics, no politics, to show how federal borrowing fails MATHEMATICALLY:
We'll do it in 3 steps
1. Identify how GDP growth translates into tax revenue using a standard metric of tax revenue per unit of GDP.
2. Use the current deficit to identify the new GDP NOW required to generate the tax revenue to pay back the current debt if we stop borrowing now.
3. Spread the new GDP into an avg growth rate required to pay back the debt over 1 generation, 20 years.
Our current tax rate is around 15% of GDP. Let's figure the payback GDP growth (not growth rate!!!) to pay back the money borrowed to create jobs, OK? If we borrow a trillion, we need growth to yield a trillion in new tax revenue to pay it back, right? That means the GDP would have to grow $1 trillion /0.15 = $6.66 trillion in growth to yield a $1 trillion in debt repayment.
The reciprocal of the tax rate per GDP yields the new, *minimum* new GDP required to pay back the debt created by the government.
We will now consider how this is amortized across a period of years. Let's figure the new GDP required to pay back the current debt with 5 perfect "best case" assumptions:
1. All the new tax revenue goes to deficit.
2. The current marginal tax rate of 15% of GDP stays in effect.
3. We stop borrowing now.
4. assume 0 % interest.
5. 0% inflation
(When engineers have a problem that is too crazy to control all the inputs, we assume all the inputs are controlled to "best case" and then see if the problem can even be solved at all.)
If the economy gets healthy, interest rates will go up and greatly exacerbate payback burden. LIkewise, taxes must rise, that will make it worse. We probably won't stop borrowing this year. And interest rates can't get down to 0%, at least not for long.
But, with these best case assumptions, let's spread the GDP out into a growth rate.
We currently owe $15 trillion in debt that is ON THE BOOKS. (There is actually 5X more than that but the government can keep crooked books).
15/0.15 = $100 trillion in new GDP.
Now let's spread this over 20 years, using a constant growth rate formula.
I used Excel to spread $100 trillion of growth over 20 years, I assumed a constant growth $ per year, this starts out at 3.5% and trails downward to 2.1% in the last year.
That averages to 2.7% growth per year for 20 years straight !!! If you look up our past history you can see that is about as good as average as we can hope for, check out the 1960-1980 period where we didn't deficit spend, so the GDP wasn't so bloated with artificial deficit spending. Assumption 3 above, which mandates the debt stop now, will cause at least a 9% immediate drop in GDP in the first year, so averaging 2.7% a year is not going to produce payback revenue, it will need to be a bit higher.
So under 2.7% GDP growth per year and the 5 outlandish "best case" assumptions, we can see the debt is not payable.