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"The USDRUB Pair Will Be Discontinued Due To Recent Instability Of The Russian Ruble"
Dear Russian Ruble traders, please find a different sandbox, because "evil speculators" will no longer be tolerated, first at Forex Capital Markets and soon, everywhere else.
And now, unless the selloff in US equity futures is immediately halted, expect the first self-help headline in US markets to strike - as usual - within hours.
* * *
Update: And now FxPro:
@zerohedge Incoming mail pic.twitter.com/WJERtGh5IB
— raymond kipngetich (@Raymondfx) December 16, 2014
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Relationship status: 'It's complicated'
a rise in terrorist attacks across the west would be in russia's interest, esp on energy pipelines and production in gulf..this would be low cost high return strategy,, a sunk bulk oil carrier in homuz strait ,, destabilize the region and you got $200/b oil, No??
Ruble crash will destroy financial system
latest:
http://tersee.com/#!q=ruble&t=text
Taxpayer going to be pissed with trillions in energy derivatives added to that 18 trillion. We should get some numbers soon.
If that was the case the taxpayer should have been pissed when this all started long ago. The frog is still boiling, but not fully scalded....yet.
Sheesh!
But... They told me it was a hot tub.
Taxpayers on the hook for $18 Trillion, add in that the 100's of Trillions in derivatives the banks play are now backstopped by the taxpayer. Newsflash to government you might as well make it 100 quadrillion it will never get payed.
They know it. The trillions in derivatives are the equivalent of nukes. Financial WMD's. They (bankers) have created worldwide counterparty exposure. "Tanks in the streets" bitches.
Game, set, match. (and now they will march the world into war).
Futures coming back !!!! All is well. All is well. Hold your positions !!!
back the ruble with gold, you don't wanna know the relationship
Taxpayers? Not one person in my travels since budget passed brought up the budget let alone the derivative clause. Fuck the sheeple taxpayer, not those who are awake.
That notification came from FXCM. I save a copy of the 15 minute chart for education and posterity sake.
Steven Englander and Boris Schlossberg were on CNBC this morning. They stated that likely there's a hedge fund (guess who??) who's running the ruble as hard as possible. Even when I was watching it, it went from 72 to 74. Amazing stuff. Somebody is getting wealthy (er) today, but likely many are going bankrupt.
Putin is waiting patiently for the US to send offensive arms to Ukraine. Once that can be verified without doubt, he will invade/occupy eastern Ukraine. This will ratchet up the ante for the US. What will they do. No nukes of course.
All of this manuevering on his part is to shake up the western money system (black swan effect) and crash it if possible. I think his people are pretty much behind him.
miker read my prior post..energy infrastructure is where russia will enable "terrorists" to finally strike saudi oil.
no russian hands no way to blame russia, oil back over $100 what would you do if you where him?
In the absence to using tactical nukes, convential arms (which are horribly energy intensive and inefficient) will only hasten the demise of living standards around the planet for 99% of the population.
Same as it ever was...
hmmm it is going to be a long day if not a long week
For those of you ex ruble traders....
My sisterinlaw made 2,000$ dollars last week for only a few hours of work!
My coworkers arent known for their stamina......
saudi arabia and the US trying to start a war by flooding the market with oil
currency wars...trade wars...real shooting/killing wars...
same as it ever was...
Just like in the 30s..read history..it does repeat...
Russia's rouble went into free-fall in Tuesday trading, falling repeatedly to record lows, despite the central bank's dramatic decision to raise interest rates from 10.5% to 17%.
The rate rise was meant to strengthen the currency.
It helped the rouble to 58 to the dollar early on Tuesday, but the dollar now buys as many as 77 roubles.
The rouble has lost more than 50% against the US dollar this year, hit by oil price falls and Western sanctions.
Both of these have weakened the economy.
'Extraordinary measures'
Last week, Russia raised rates to 10.5% from 9.5%, a move that had little impact. The rouble's slide this week was prompted by fears that the US was considering a fresh set of sanctions against the country for its support for separatists in Ukraine.
US Dollar v Russian RoubleLast Updated at 16 Dec 2014, 08:36 ET *Chart shows local time
$1 buys change % 73.0864 +
+7.18 +
+10.90
The chairwoman of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said the latest rate rise should curb inflation and encourage Russians to put more roubles into interest rate-bearing accounts.
However, she said she did not expect the rouble's value to be immediately influenced by the rate rise.
"The rouble is currently undervalued according to all fundamental parameters and the state of the economy... and the current account," she said. "But for the rouble to return to its fundamental exchange rate it would take time."
Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at brokers Hargreaves Lansdown, said: 'The Russian central bank has moved to battle stations to defend its currency. So far the move has not stopped the slide, and it may yet have negative effects on the Russian economy.
"For investors wanting exposure to Russia, a long-term horizon and a strong stomach are both an absolute must."
Analysis: Stephen Ennis, BBC Monitoring Russian Media Analyst
Yesterday's rouble crash caused barely a ripple on Russia's primetime news last night.
Bulletins on the three main channels on 15 December led with a health scare for a famous poet and the aftermath of the siege in Sydney. Official channel Rossiya 1 ignored the rouble completely, while state-controlled Channel One and Gazprom-Media's NTV both dedicated around a minute to the story - in NTV's case close to the end of the hour-long bulletin.
Channel One used a somewhat misleading screen graphic that understated the currency's collapse. It also warned that shops displaying prices in any other currency than the rouble could face stiff fines.
The rouble had fallen by more than 10% on the day.
The last time state TV tried to hush up such a dramatic and nationally important event was when all three main channels completely blanked the protests that followed the disputed parliamentary election in 2011.
Russia's central bank has previously tried unsuccessfully to stabilise the currency, buying roubles in the markets.
It has spent more than $70bn (£44.7bn) supporting the rouble since the start of the year.
"This decision is aimed at limiting substantially increased rouble depreciation risks and inflation risks," the central bank said in a statement.
Last week, the World Bank warned that Russia's economy would shrink by at least 0.7% in 2015 if oil prices did not recover. It says an oil price of $70 a barrel would leave it with a fall of 1.5%.
Capital Economics' latest prediction is for a contraction of 2%, should the price of oil remain close to its current price of $60 a barrel.
Raising interest rates has its own risks, as more expensive borrowing can itself slow growth. But it may also stem the tide of money leaving the country.
Oil prices are at levels not seen for five-and-a-half years. US benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate is below $55 a barrel, while North Sea Brent crude is trading below $60 a barrel. Both benchmarks have fallen by almost half since June.
Analysis: Steve Rosenberg, BBC News, Moscow
When Russia's Central Bank raised its base rate by one percentage point last week, it was like a doctor giving a seriously ill patient a headache tablet.
Now, it seems, the bank has reached for the defibrillator.
The 6.5 percentage point increase in the key rate to 17% is a desperate measure. But then the situation is looking increasingly desperate.
On Monday, the rouble suffered its sharpest fall in more than 15 years, losing about 10% of its value against the dollar. Moscow's RTS share index plummeted 10%.
On the streets of Moscow yesterday, there was no sign of panic, there were no queues outside banks. But the Central Bank knows it needs to bolster the national currency to prevent panic from setting in. Hence the large rise in the key interest rate.
But there is a risk. High interest rates slow economic growth, and that's not good with Russia on the verge of recession.
WARNING Amerikan Patriot is a TRoLLER/paid SHill (check his history)
all he does is post MSM/ CNN articles like this one is from : http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30492518
CAN SOMEONE PLEASE ban him
thank you
There are drawbacks to censorship.
Not the least of which is administering any censorship.
No one should object to censoring comments that are irrelevant advertisements.
Or prohibiting comments that make personal threats.
Nor should one censor simply because one disagrees with comments made. (e.g.5557747 ?)
However, worthwhile discussions can be lost or hijacked when threads are too littered with pointless insulting ad hominems, abusive rants, repetitious irrelevancies, etc.
(e.g. comments 5557771 & 5557791 ??)
There is also the likelihood that threads can be/are sometimes flooded by paid trolls for government agencies or lobbyist organizations.
Is there a reasonable solution?
Perhaps for some articles, two separate columns/threads, the first restricted to selected commenters,
and the second with other unrestricted comments added to the first??
Or perhaps we will just have to live with the problems.
(also related is what the gov't is doing)
http://www.globalresearch.ca/offensive-online-comments-could-earn-you-a-...
Downvote is already a form of censorship, downvote him like hell and don't respond to him (ie don't feed the Troll). When he will have enough he will leave by himself.
"""Bulletins on the three main channels on 15 December led with a health scare for a famous poet and the aftermath of the siege in Sydney. Official channel Rossiya 1 ignored the rouble completely, while state-controlled Channel One and Gazprom-Media's NTV both dedicated around a minute to the story - in NTV's case close to the end of the hour-long bulletin.
Channel One used a somewhat misleading screen graphic that understated the currency's collapse. It also warned that shops displaying prices in any other currency than the rouble could face stiff fines."""
This looks so bad. How stupid can the Russian PTP be? The propoganda is now IN YOUR FACE.
Ripple-effects:
Ruble crash can destroy financial system
latest:
http://tersee.com/#!q=ruble&t=text
RT are reporting on the collapse of the Ruble and Hey Ho the atroturfers are having a field day in the comments section.
Some bastards really want to see a major war.
What the hell here? Now I know I am surrounded by idiots no matter where you go, there's an idiot.
American Patidiot is just another one of many.
Here's one: go jump in the lake.
downvote, but do not respond, do not even give credit to him.
golden rule: never talk to idiots, by doin so you educte em.
in life, some things must remain what they are. like the coffee circular trace let by the mug on a sheet.... idiots remains idiots, no matter what., :)
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/car-registrations:-) :-)
Vlad has isolated Russia such that it is now a pariah state like Iran and North Korea. And now Russia's commodity clearinghouse - it doesn't have a real economy - is in the toilet.
What to do...what to do...?
Like Saddam before him, Vlad now spends every night in a different 'spider hole', wondering when the good people of Russia will locate him and slit his throat for impoverishing them again.
Russians were just getting a taste of the good life and Vlad dashed their hopes.
Instead of focusing exclusively on oil, this imbecile had many years to steer Russia into a more diversified economy.
And now...Poof!
Are you payed by the line or by the down arrow count?
WARNING Amerikan Patriot is a TRoLLER/paid SHill (check his history)
CAN SOMEONE PLEASE ban him
thank you
Shit like this simply tells the rest of BRIC that they've got to set up alternative to this fucking NWO violence. This is the begining of the end of the American Empire.
Another favorite Zero Hedge meme down the toilet:
"Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is a competent leader and he will steer Russia away from the dollar and to prosperity."
B-O-O-M !
Tyler, why don't you ban this fuck?
It doesn't matter, Bob. I'll be back under another user name, then another.
You get the idea.
Idiots like you are going to be forced to hear the truth whether you want to or not.
Bust some champale on a new i.d. and tell us about Kiev selling arms to the DPR, or is that a touchy subject?
Hey AP,
Is it game over for Russia? Game over for Putin? What happens next?
Put it down on paper and then if you are right then you can say you told us so, but right now all you are doing is cheerleading.
Anybody can jump on the bandwagon and 'predict' the demise of Putin, Russia and the Ruble after a 13% drop in a day.
Try a real comment and you won't get so many downvotes.
I get it, Putin's toast, at least you think so, now explain how.
What happens next in Crimea, Eastern Ukraine, Russia's Swift alternative, energy supplies to Europe....
Put your predictions down on paper, or else you're just a cheerleading troll.
Ten Zerohedgers want to ban a guy for saying something they don't like to hear. So much for libertarianism...
It's not about "not liking to hear", it's about stopping the spam in the discussion; what's the point about having dozens stupid pointless posts from a single troll? My time for reading is limited, I really don't care about useless rants from paid dicks.
His name is Amerikan patriot, skip his posts... You can do it...
Agreed.
Banning is a bad idea. Ignoring is a much better idea.
Posts should be limited to a reasonable maximum (800 bytes?) and any post voted down more than 5 should be displayed distinctively (pale red?) to assist ignoring.
I agree, banning is a bad idea, but we should add a function
"put on my ignore list".
Also, on reddit the post disappear (still accessible by clicking a link) after a certain number of downvote...
Reddit sucks cock.
Yes actually I left them: it's full of liberals, American Imperialist and Russophobe, then arriving here on ZH not so much liberals but still full of neo-con, American Imperialist shit.
The issue is that other people are arguing with him - and that takes a lot of place on the screen. And this is his goal - to fuck up the discussion and shit on the table.
Opinions are like assholes. Everyones got one.
UNLESS.... you have a working crystal ball. (mine broke... dammit).
And they all stink except mine.
HughK duh, its because these Putlers fanboys are so long Russia, that they are just miserable when someone mocks their leader and getting margin calls on their Gold/Russia longs does not help at all, but hey! Those of us who are actually not conspiracy nuts are having the best 2days in a long time by being short Russia.
I know, right?
Back in the day someone would have taken him apart point by point. Now it's just crying "ban him , BAN HIM!"
I'm no better tho... after the first few lines I'm just, "this dudes fucked. Skip this..."
Apathy is gonna kill us all...
Well said toady. Even trolls can provide a decent launching point for good conversation. And this guy has extended some really solid opportunities that no one here has used. Why? Well, it seems they just want to spout off thier own opinions/predictions - and earning the badge of a hypocrit in the process.
Sorry this isn't . . . . . . RUSSIA. Perhaps we should poison him, no?
He is a entertaining Kike trolling for the Kike bankers.. Let him stay.
Amerikan Patriot - shouldn't you be working the glory hole in the men's bathroom at the Rayburn house office building today? It's Tuesday, the day Nancy Pelosi stops by to get her pipe drained. She's going to be very, very disappointed in you if you are not there to service her. I suggest you take out your dentures and get to work.
Ruble will be backed by gold and the whole of BRICS will follow. Energy futures, derivatives and shale oill collapses. The whole house of cards collapses.
How this isn't the end result, I can't imagine.
He who backs his fiat currnecy with gold first wins!
Western C/Bs will now take gold on the mother of all takedowns in 3-2-1. Is China ready??
I can smell $550 billion rehypothecated through credit default swaps on a giant FED bubble called shale oil that was even unprofitable at $100 a barrel.First part of next year be aware because the banks are already taking added protection against each other in the CDS markets.A big Australian shale producer is the first casualty there.Credit has been cut off as the banks prepare for the needle to prick the latest bubble-scam in the U.S. and worldwide.$40 bucks a barrel will bancrupt many and New York banks were again behind the latest scam.Thanks a lot Dick Cheney,it didn't work though.
What is name of the Australia shale producer?
Russian roulette.
I don't think anybody reads American Patriot since it is plain what each and all his post will be.
Just down vote when I see the name since I know the TPTB/MSM shill opinion he will opine...ie worhtless repetitive comment with one theme only.
Seems I must, upvote for Adult common sense..
The US trying to force Russia to sell their gold to "support" the Ruble thereby giving the US the needed gold to handle all of the announced repatriations.
stateside
All real liquidity must be removed. Only algo illiquidity will be allowed.
No muppets, the big money on this trade is only allowed to be made by the insiders.
This is big world news...and it will change the world in the future...people and countries are scrambling to save themselves....some will...some will not....there is going to be many losers in this fallout....and they will blame someone....who controls that narative controls the markets....who can we blame for this...is it Putin or Obama???? Someone will get blamed that is for sure
Hanukkah gift??? I'll just celebrate with Tom Lehrer instead.... http://videos.teamwukar.com/video/1055769/tom-lehrer-hanukkah-in-santa-m...
When you need them the most nowhere to be found.
2018: "This ATM machine/Credit card will be discontinued due to instability in the_____________ (insert currency)"
2018: "This ATM machine/Credit card will be discontinued due to instability in the_____________ (insert currency)"
Translation people are lining up to take ruble positions and the banks would be screwed.
The bankers want all the cheap rubles for themselves.
Stingee bastards!!!
Yup.
This is the equivalent of smashing the chess board to the floor.
The message is. You don't get to win. If it looks like you are going to win we'll break the game.
FOX BREAKING NEWS. RUSSIA ECONOMY COLLAPSES! AMERICAN FRACKERS BREAK PUTIN. PUTIN IS ON THE ROPES. AND NOW THE USA HAS ALL THE LEVERAGE! WTF?
TALKING HEADS ARE HAVING ORGASMS! PUTIN IS A ONE TRICK PONY AND IS FINISHED.
Faux news!
Sounds likely to be good for a few laughs. Let's go turn it on and see...
Ukraine moves on Crimea.
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&nv=1&r...
Nice try. This would be the last action of the poor Ukies army.
Current exchange values are a derivative of the dollar system. Forex will become as irrelevant to the emerging bloc as COMEX - they will not trade with the tapped out consuption based US. It's the dollar that faces self-immolation ... and isolation.
http://roacheforque.blogspot.com/2014/12/case-in-point.html
Oh yes, a collapseatarian. The dollar will collapse as soon as we run out of zeros.
FEAR NOT, LOYAL ZERO HEDGE READERS.
VLADIMIR PUTIN IS FULLY IN CONTROL OF THE CURRENT MONETARY SITUATION. MR. PUTIN HAS ANTICIPATED EACH MOVE TO DESTROY RUSSIA AND HAS EVERYTHING WELL IN HAND.
THEREFORE, DO NOT DESPAIR. VLAD BESEECHES EACH OF HIS LOYAL SUBJECTS TO CONTINUE ON ABOUT THEIR DAILY BUSINESS AND TO HAVE A FESTIVE EVENING WITH A FULL BOTTLE OF VODKA.
IN RUSSIA, EVERY PROBLEM CAN BE SOLVED WITH A BOTTLE OF VODKA.
WARNING Amerikan Patriot is a TRoLLER/paid SHill (check his history)
CAN SOMEONE PLEASE ban him
thank you
I really don't think he's a paid shill. Paid shills have talking points and a message to get across. This guy is just spamming. He doesn't have anything useful to say and is not knowledgeable about it.
He's just a troll.
Nothing useful to say and no knowledge means he probably has an office next to that arsehole Jen Psaki. He's trying a little to hard with the propaganda.
I found this article on George Friedman's recent trip to Moscow enlightning. Shows the greedy arseholes infesting the Federal govenment are going to get us all killed.
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/viewing-russia-inside
Shh no tears, your Russian longs will have more pain :) I hope you put your retirement money where you mouth is, if you got any left with all those Russian longs, gold longs and US stock makret shorts. Great job nuttler sheeple.
He isn't a paid troll. You just don't like his message.
Putin will fail and the dollar will collapse as soon as we run out of zeros. Sorry, Dollar, Inc always wins. Deal with it. The Nwo is just a few steps away. When Iran and Russia capitulate, brave new world. Imagine that, no more independant central banks anywhere on the planet.
Zerohedge and it's Putin worship . . . .
Is a distinct possibility. Reality is that no matter which way it goes, it is going to be a disaster. That is just the underlying math.
And youu madam are a vibrating dildo with dead batteries. Just a dildo!
And youu madam are a vibrating dildo with dead batteries. Just a dildo!
Will a ruble crash destroy the entire monetary system?
Just like the ruble crash did in 1998?
Everything is going as expected :)
Drinks on me, Russia short is working perfectly, I wish yall listened to me & that White House guy, when I told you all to short Russia @ RSX 24 and not drink the Putlers kool aid on how great Russia is.
.
"Rock n Roll n Vodka bitchez... All the way to the tanks"
LOL!
First they take Alaska then they take Portland. Please leave Europe outside this US/USSR mess...
Cnmcdee- This isn't going to do shit to Russia - those guys are depressions masters.
Yes they are masters at depression. Why do you think they drink so much vodka? Because their cuntry has been run by psychopaths for most of their lives.
I'd be depressed to but I live in the good ol US of A where we have a government that respects our rights. Especially property rights.
I'll let you figure out where to put the sarc if one is needed.
"Currency Wars" taken to the next level. Shit is gonna hit the fan. Russia does not play around.
This completes the "TEST" of the emergency broadcast system! This was only a TEST....
I'm with just about every other comment on this thread that isn't a Zionist troll that this is the quickest way to neutralize a psychopath with lots of money that already lost his shirt 6 years ago!...
All I can say to Russia after the attacks in Vologograd and the "peace action" that followed shortly with it's next door neighbor 10 months ago...
What the fuck took you so long to do this?...
a zionist troll
anyone who disagrees with you is
a zionist troll
Im thinking the rubble may be a good investment at this point. I mean this "crash" is the NWO Bankster cabal at its finest.
lets see.. NWO Bankster cabal instigates a faux coup de tat in Ukraine, then has the aballs to blme and antagonize russia. now , their trying to crash them.. yet.. interestingly, Russia actually has some resources that arent controlled by the NWO Bankster cabal.. unlike us.. where all the resources have been consumed or monopolized by the NWO bankster cabal..
who actually has value? not the fiat destroyed west...
Agreed. There are no fundamental reasons for this big a move. Oil prices would cause the ruble to weaken a bit - but not this much. It is purely speculative at this point, and as we all know the speculators will move on soon enough.
Today's close will be a key. After Citi and JPM dissed the rate increase and looked at huge losses, they likely came in with both barrles blasting overnight. What we need to see is if they hold by their 'not enough' positions (or increase them) -- versus them doing one final big down push so that they could close out their ruble shorts. If the USDRUB closes near 60 then we know they both exited -- stage left.
The price of the Ruble versus the dollar is not relevent to the Russian people -- the only price that matters is how many rubles do you need to buy a bottle of vodka -- and I bet that has not changed very much! The price of European fruits and vegetables has not changed -- they are banned. The price of a Big Mac has not changed -- they have been banned. The price of US oil equipment has not changed -- they have been sanctioned.
Oh really? Did you miss the part where food prices have gone up 25% this year and inflation is well above 10%, while wages are not increasing?
Or how Russians spend 30% of their income on food compared to the wests' 6.7%?
Russian billionaires spend 300 million a year on food? They must be super fat.
http://news.yahoo.com/western-sanctions-ruble-crash-hit-russians-hard-14...
Olga Kupriyanova, a 35-year-old law professor at Moscow State University, says her family of four feels the pinch particularly when it comes to putting food on the table. Inflation is estimated to reach 10 percent by early next year, and food is rising fastest. According to the Federal Statistics Service, chicken costs 27 percent more than it did last year, pork 25 percent, and the beloved staple of buckwheat 48 percent. Russians on average spend about 30 percent of their income on food, compared with 6.7 percent in the United States.
"We've started to economize on food, but nonetheless because of rising prices our expenses have grown by about 10 percent," said Kupriyanova, who has replaced red meat with chicken and cut most cheese and fish out of the family's diet.
Do they have food stamps in Russia?
cornflake, some of them are beyond belief into Putlers propoganda, they won't believe anything you say until it is reported by the state controlled RT or RIA. I just enjoy them scrambling for any news that could help their Russian stock longs, those of us who are not under RT propoganda are drinking champagne today, by far the most 2 profitable days I have had in a long time by being short RSX.
come on, he is right. most of this planet's population spends 30% of their income on food. what do oligarchs have to do with it? by the way, 6.7% is not the West's, it's the US "quota". In the EU countries, it's 15%
you fucking dreaming man, 6.7% for food on mensual wages ? looooool
multiple choices accepted
1-you never workd of your life
2-you have less than 16 years old
3-you live at parent's home
4-you fucking assisted worm in the fruit with a nice fucking EBT tattoo on your face.
http://news.yahoo.com/western-sanctions-ruble-crash-hit-russians-hard-14...
i dont give a shit about your links, you say west spend 6% wage to eat ?
I say :
1) you read too much BS
2) you never worked a single day in your whole life.
french midd wage is 1100€ try to eat for 30 days with 73.7€ ( = 93 USD ( @ 1.25 ) )
LMFAOOOOO
in spain, mid wage is less than 800€ ( 53.6€ - 67USD ( @ 1.25 )
west eat for 6.7%.... you so lost. fucking dumbass
Can confirm here France that's not 6.7 % that number is totally BS.
Some Russophobic "patriot" should learn Math...
We come from an medium middle class family and we spend about 25% on food monthly...
Food price was at best stable if not in 10%-15 % inflation, electronic are always deflationary but food/energy was never deflationary until the abnormal oil price fall since September.
And yet we still spend 20-25% monthly revenue...
The 6.7 % it's when you are upper class or the guy who don't need to work to live.
Yes, it's called buying hamburger in America.
Hey, it sounds like you're describing this country ('Murica, Fuck Yeah!). I know they say the US dollar is "strong", yet I bought some breakfast cereal and the box was half full of product. I bought some Irish Cream liqueur and the bottle was 1/3 smaller than before. Fuck the doctored CPI and fuck stealth inflation.
In 1992, consumer price inflation spiked to 2500% in Russia (y/y). After the 1998 crisis, it spiked to 120%. It was 14% in 2005 and 15% in 2008. Currently it is at 9.1%. High, but not terribly high for Russia. Presumably it will go up a bit as a result of the sharp decline in the ruble, but Russia has a current account surplus of 3% of GDP and government debt of just 13% of GDP (it so to speak the "anti-Greece"). No doubt many of these data points will worsen, but even with the sharp decline in oil prices and the economic sanctions the current level of the ruble makes little sense, especially as money supply growth has slowed sharply from its peaks in the mid 2000ds.
Alos the price of carrots, beets, and potatoes from their backyard gardens has not gone up.
Problem solved. Obama leaving on 17 day taxpayer vacation. Talking heads euphoric. Merry Christmas Motherfuckers. Corks popping at Goldman and Soros headquarters. I wouldn't count Russia out. They're not a bunch of pansy assed welfare losers. This will turn out to be another "Bridge Too Far." Shit is about to get real.
Long Russian Dating Sites.
Translation: We can't afford to match that 17% in our sandbox where we are on the other side of every trade. You are now required to sell all Ruble positions so we can close this trade.
We begin bombing in 5 minutes.
http://tass.ru/en/russia/767116h
Combat readiness snap check held in Russia's westernmost Kaliningrad regionWhen a beast gets cornered they lash out. What will Putin do next? Think he now realizes he should not threaten the petrodollar? No coincidence here folks. The systematic price drop in oil was aimed at Putin. Thus I made positions for oil tanking 118 days ago.
BTFD
i understand the troll army is doing happy dances and you have full right to do so, but do you have to post every fucking five seconds with the same tripe? Do you add any value besides regurgitated MSM sites and musings? It adds nothing and one must wonder why you would spend so much time here doing this incessantly.
The U.S. Dollar's got what plants crave, it's got electrolytes.
And i thought FX trades were used to hedge against instability. Silly me.
it's always good to remind myself.. everything is theater.. everything is scripted...
not much of anything organic is allowed to happen in this space.... managed theater...
Electricity As Currency? 10 Reasons It Could Work
http://www.activistpost.com/2013/03/electricity-as-currency-10-reasons-i...
Russia think about energy backed currency since deep soviet era. gugl energoruble
Russia has also tradition in theory of gold standard
http://ru-facts.com/news/view/34181.html
And there is still solution of Weimar- Hjalmar Schacht, Gottfried Feder, Silvio Gesell
http://www.counter-currents.com/2012/11/two-volumes-by-gottfried-feder/
Anyway. Rocks are spliting. Change
The US dollar is going to increase so much that gold will be 250 bucks and silver will be back to the price it takes to dig it out of the ground. This was the plan all along.
PS. everything you mortgaged will soon be owned by the bank. Have a nice day.
Russia under Putin is has only one strength - they were born on top of a big sea of glurp. They thought that was enough - that they didn't need creative freedom or rule of law.
Not surprisingly, the worlds creative people have fugured out substitutes for glurp, and how to extract more of their own glurp, and how to use less glurp. Now Russia has to compete on it's own relative skills in the world - and discovers that they have nothing that anybody else wants.
Suck it, Vlad.
The Russian ruble crashed again on December 15, in the biggest fall since the last big crisis in 1998. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) belatedly stepped in with a huge interest rate hike overnight, but it has been roundly criticised for being "behind the curve" and unnecessarily threatening the stability of Russia's financial sector.
"You have to kind of ask yourself what a central bank is doing when it lets its own currency fall by 10% in a day, when it has $420bn in FX reserves (like 18 months of import cover). This is extreme central banking, and the question is what are they trying to achieve?" asked the ubiquitous Tim Ash, head of emerging markets research at Standard Bank. "Moves like this create systemic risks – the risk of panic amongst the general population, and surely risks of major deposit flight. And it also comes on the back of already huge moves in the exchange rate."
The ruble has now lost over half its value to the dollar this year – a UK penny was worth more than a ruble on December 16 for the first time ever – while all previous attempts by the CBR to stop the rot have failed. Bankers like Ash are complaining that the central bank's rate hike of earlier in December by 100 basis points and the lack of intervention on the currency market have led to a rout that threatens to spin out of control. Russia watchers had been expecting at least a 150bp hike, and the ruble entirely ignored the increase and continued to slide, before taking another big step-down on December 15.
At a late night panic meeting on December 15, the CBR finally conceded defeat and pushed through a massive 650bp increase in the key policy rate that will almost certainly kill off growth in 2015 and lead to a deep recession on the order of "at least 4.5% in 2015 if oil stays at $60", the CBR said in a statement. The choice has become between a recession next year or a financial crisis now – and the CBR has gone with recession in 2015 as the lesser evil. "This decision is aimed at limiting substantially increased ruble depreciation risks and inflation risks," the central bank said in a statement.
The CBR also said early on December 16 that it would increase the maximum volume of foreign currency it provides to Russian banks, via its forex repurchase agreement auctions for 28 days, to $5bn from $1.5bn.
Unfortunately, the aggressive move looks to have been in vain. Despite coming out of the gate with a 9% gain at the opening of the market on December 16, the ruble has since given up all those gains and by midday Moscow time was down about 3% on the day.
Keeping the power dry
CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina has made it clear that the last thing she wanted to do was hike rates, as she has been more worried about the effect on Russia's already low growth (Russia will finish 2014 with about 0.5% growth). But in the end, say critics, she now has the worst of all worlds: $100bn has been spent managing the currency lower; total rate hikes this year are still a growth-killing 10%; and the ruble's value has still been cut in half. Some are already calling for her head.
Nabiullina has said that she believes the fall in the ruble is "temporary" as it adjusts to the falling prices in oil, which are also "temporary" and she expects both to rebound next year. The plan was to keep the powder of hard currency reserves dry now, so that Russia could cope with the pain of long-term financial sanctions.
"This is a really high risk strategy from the CBR, and I think few global central bankers would buy into this one. The only thing I can think is what I have been saying for some weeks now, that FX reserves have been deemed mega strategic due to the geopolitical setting and to be conserved at all cost – while the CBR has also been told not to raise policy rates that much," says Ash.
Russia's heavy dependence on oil for budget revenues means that, now the ruble has become a freely floating currency since November, it is only natural for the ruble to recalibrate to the lower oil prices. The Brent oil price was just over $60 at the open of trading on the morning of December 16, but had dropped below this level by mid-morning. If oil loses about half its value, then so should the ruble. What traders and economist are objecting to is the fact that the CBR has not used some of its $416bn in forex reserves (down $4bn on the week last week) to smooth out the fall.
The danger is causing a panic. A crashing currency unsettles depositors, who rush to withdraw cash and destabilise the banking sector. Surprisingly, the crisis-hardened Russians have not panicked so far, as many have anticipated this devaluation, leading to soaring car and apartment purchases this year. But such a large movement could tip them over the edge. In the last two years both the Indian and Turkish central banks have faced similar crises, and massively hiked interest rates by hundreds of basis points to successfully quell fears and stave off potential bank runs.
The collapsing ruble will only hurt corporate Russia more. Underneath the currency crisis Russia has been suffering from a much more debilitating "investment crisis" – the instability means that Russia's business owners have halted investment plans and fixed investment was already falling this year, without which Russia has no chance of growth.
Banks are in a stronger position having already built up some $40bn in hard currency reserves in 2014 and so are better able to weather the storm. However, the high interest rates will kill their lending business, cutting them off from one of their main sources of income. It will also accelerate the accumulation of non-performing loans, which have been at modest levels in 2014 and are not an immediate threat to the system. But banks were already struggling to make profits in 2014, which were down by a quarter from the peak profits of over RUB1 trillion in 2012, and 2015 will be an even more difficult year for the sector.
Red lines
The generally accepted theory on the CBR's inaction is that the US/EU financial sanctions have been far more successful than Russia at first anticipated; with more than 1.8 years of hard currency reserves in the bank, Russian President Vladimir Putin calculated Russia could tough it out. However, now the CBR is called on to burn through about $10bn a week ,that cash pile doesn’t look quite as big.
The focus changed about two weeks ago at the CBR when it stopped intervening and allowed the ruble to sink unhindered as the hard currency reserves have become a "strategic resource". The CBR preferred to let the ruble slide so that it could keep its cash to support the banking sector and help cover an estimated $150bn of debt repayments that come due next year – mostly money owned by big state-owned corporations that have been cut off from refinancing their debt on the international capital markets by financial sanctions.
Oil prices fell to below $40 in 2009 and caused none of the panic that Russia is currently feeling. What scares everyone this time around is that oil prices could fall to $40 and stay there for at least a year. In 2009, low oil prices were seem as temporary and Russia's low debt levels reassured investors that it could borrow its way out of trouble if it really had to. Today, financial sanctions mean that Russia will have to rely entirely on its hard currency reserves and now no-one is expecting oil to return to $100 a barrel next year.
A debate has started on where the "red line" is for a fall in Russia's forex reserves; how far do they have to fall before Russia's financial system goes into meltdown? On paper, Russia should be fine, all other things being equal, until $60bn, or three months’ worth of import cover (and Ukraine's economy is currently defying gravity with half this amount of import cover).
The economist Anders Aslund suggested in a recent blog that Russia's reserves are actually $200bn of "useable money" and so a collapse could come even earlier, but as bne argued in a blog, this is an extreme view.
On December 16, the Association of Institution International Finance said the red line for Russia's hard currency reserves was at $330bn, whereas Charlie Robinson, chief economist at Renaissance Capital, said in a tweet, "We strongly disagree," pointing out that Russia still has $270bn of cash reserves and another $170bn in the two reserve funds, which should be more than adequate to support the ruble. The CBR's new policy of letting the ruble sink means that the money will last much longer.
Nabiullina has been betting that the oil price will stop falling soon and the price rebound to something like $70, bringing the ruble up with it. But that looks a lot less likely now and last night's rate hike suggests the CBR has caved into a new, much darker economic outlook.
Everything now depends on whether the oil price stabilises and at what level. There has been a lot of speculation that Opec members, and Saudi Arabia in particular, are happy to let oil prices fall in the short term to drive marginal US shale oil producers out of business. But the selloff is causing its own problems.
"Financial investors into oil have stop-loss positions which cause them to sell off their positions whenever the prices falls to certain levels," says one senior Russian fund manager, who has just been negotiating with Arab sovereign wealth funds. “What we are seeing now is several of these mandatory sell-offs being triggered, each one which drives oil down to the next trigger level.”
Contagion
Most worryingly, Russia's problems are starting to spread. Ukraine has been in deep trouble all year and it is now teetering on the edge of collapse; its hard currency reserves dipped below $10bn earlier this month, or about 1.3 months’ of import cover. The hryvna is down by some 40% since the start of the year and the only thing holding it up now is the promise of more international bailout money in the new year.
Kazakhstan devalued the tenge in February by 18%, but all the wiggle room it created has now been used up. Fears of another devaluation are mounting fast, as Kazakhstan's economy remains closely tied to Russia's as well as being a major oil exporter.
The falling currencies are no longer just hitting countries that are tied to Russia and the contagion is spreading out, leading some to start talking about a repeat of 1998 when oil prices fell to $10. Last week the Turkish lira sank to its lowest levels against the dollar for a year, despite the fact it is one of the big winners from falling oil prices, as it is heavily dependent on oil and gas imports. Likewise, China, another major energy importer. has watched its currency fall by 26% since May, and 7% since the end of October alone.
Collapsing currencies around the world, coupled with the "death spiral" of selling in the oil markets, is sparking worries that we are coming to the point where things could spin out of control – and not just for Russia.
CMC Markets quoting a 100-200 pip spread on USD/RUB (was 10-20 yesterday)
You feeling rich?
Market manipulation tug-of-war.
With over 50% of the Ruble's value tied up in energy sales, this was a very predictable result of "Drill, Baby Drill!"
How does it work?
Why would the US abandon the terms of the PetroDollar treaty, and begin re-expansion of its oil industry (which was the world's largest when Petro-Dollar began)??
What would you expect the other big producers to do when one of the top 3 producers hugely increases production in a very short period?
How would you expect politicians or their banker-owners to leverage those conditions?
THEORY:
- US told Saudi 'No more bad neighbors for you, high oil prices, and failing productive US economy means our oil is worth more to us than your alliance...and re-expanded oil production. PROBLEM FOR CONVENTIONAL PRODUCERS: The oil accessible using new processes for fracking and tar sands is ENORMOUS. What you've heard about isn't even the tip, of the tip, of the tip, of the iceberg.
- Saudi is worried about Pacific Rim oil markets. Tankers rule. Too geologically unstable for pipelines in many places.
- Saudi does a spoiling attack on the nascent industry by entering into a pricing war.
- Russia is PREDICTABLE collateral damage due to the Russian economy's great reliance on energy sales revenue.
- Financiers, playing for political dominance in EUROPE, target Russia in FOREX using leveraged puts on the Ruble to magnify the PREDICTABLE consequences of the price war to induce political compliance with financier agenda.
Whether this theory is right or wrong is largely immaterial. What is material is that there is a Mexican standoff between Saudi, a few dozen private unconventional oil players, and Russia.
Who will blink first?
Many on the sidelines are placing their bets, through currency trading, oil futures, treasuries, etc.
BTW....
We are getting a big test of the expectations of a Russia-China Gold Standard.
If they have the Gold to establish a real Gold standard (not a fake one like Bretton-Woods, where only CB's get gold) then they can halt the Ruble's fall overnight by announcing their high percentage of gold backing.
If they make no such announcement under near existential conditions like, these (people in Russia are worried) then it is a better than 50/50 bet the 'Russian Gold Standard' meme was a silver lining without a cloud... i.e. is propaganda, fake, not real...etc.
By proceeding towards an end-game relative to the toilet-paper-dollar, Putin has committed Russia to a course where Russia must either capitulate, or must present the Dollar alternative everyone has been hearing is imminent.
Who's naked?
We'll see. No conclusions yet!
Yawn...., My wife and I just talked with the in-laws on the phone in St. Petersburg. Despite all of the hysterical girlyman noise in the western MSM about the Russian economy collapsing, they aren't stressed out and haven't noticed any significant price or availability changes in recent months for basic staples such as food, energy, etc. Like most average Russians, they don't use credit cards, and they don't buy smelly French cheese, German BMW's or overpriced Chinese-made "American" Iphones. Since the Rouble's crash in 1998, they are hip to the Wallstreet banksters' financial games and they, like many average Russians, have always kept most of their cash in several different currencies (along with a bit of gold and silver) hidden at home as a hedge against events such as this. And unlike most Americans they have no debt and actually have positive net worth. Like many average Russians, they also directly barter services and goods with other Russians far more than folks do in the west so the impact of currency fluctuations is greatly reduced.
The banksters and their bought-and-paid for financial PR girlymen on CNBC, WSJ, Forbes, etc. don't seem to understand that in the real world, the real economies on the street in many countries are often significantly decoupled from their financial engineering shenanigans. This is why decades of bankster economic wars against Iran, Cuba, and North Korea have simply not worked (duh). Russia will make it through this bankster economic war just like it did WW2, the collapse of the USSR in 1991, and the raping and pillaging of their country by the hooknosed bankster carpetbaggers and their Russian Oligarch henchmen in the 90's. The real danger for the West is that once this current bankster attack fails in a year or two, Russia will be even stronger and angrier at the West.
Listen:
Amerikan patriot is bangalore equity by a different name!!!!
Also goes by 'Cristopher Larson' on RT. Identical posts, Same person or same script writer.