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T. Boone Pickens Rages On CNBC: "I Am The Expert, Not You", Says Oil Down Due To "Weak Demand"
Narrative, we have a problem! No lesser oil-man than T. Boone Pickens made quite an appearance on CNBC this morning - stunning the cheerleaders into first defense then silence as he broke the facts on oil's collapse to them. Oil is down "mainly due to weak demand," he explains... the anchors deny, "I am the expert, not you" Pickens rages as he warns drilling rigs will be laid down on a very wide scale (just as we have noted previously). Arguing over 'peak oil', he calls CNBC chatter "bullshit" and laid out a rather dismal short- to medium-term outlook for the oil & gas sector - not what the cheerleading tax-cut slurping media narrative wants to hear at all...
"demand is down" - "lower demand is the main driver" - "rig count is gonna fall - drop 500 rigs in next 6-9 months"
Capex cuts coming... oil prices may be back at $90-100 Brent in 12-18 months but not without rig counts plunging.
At 4:15 Pickens starts to discuss Peak Oil... enjoy -
CNBC: "Peak Oil didn't happen" ..
Pickens: "that's all bullshit... I am the expert not you" CNBC: "well you're not much of an expert if you thought Peak Oil happened"
Enjoy some real-life pushback on the narrative... (apologies for audio quality)
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Your, "real," economics shows ignorance of the laws of physics.
The main factor is not cost in any kind of currency. The cost is in joules and if you're not including that unit in your calculations then your calculations are mostly useless.
It doesn't matter how much money it takes to produce the fuel. It matters how much energy goes into the process compared to how much comes out.
Ethanol and Algae are both losing propositions when looked at this way.
+1 SG.
True. That is how you should measure everything. The down arrows only show how many here are completely ignorant. You even measure the grams of protein per Joule used. Energy available is the final limiting actor
So you feel we're limited by the amount of energy the sun is showering us daily with?
No we're limited to the much smaller number that refers to how much of that sunlight we can catch and put towards meaningful work.
Which would be how many Petawatts?
20
And that's not sufficient?
As I like to tell folks who ain't go no gumption, EROI works like this.
I am going to bury a suit case full of 100 dollar bills on my 40 acre property, one at a time. They will be spread around, at different depths, some easy to get, some not so much. I will leave in my will a map to every one, with all the details required to retrieve them.
If the benefactors of the estate decide they want a 100 bill, they get out the map, hire a man for a dollar, and he digs up one 100 dollar bill in the afternoon. The estate benefited 99 dollars and proceeds to spend that on their new life style.
But, after some years, all the easy bills are gone, so now it costs 10 dollars in labor to dig up the 100 dollar bills.
And after some more time, 50 dollars to dig up a single 100 bill.
There is a big problem now.
The estate was used to the PROFIT of 99 dollars and 90 dollars and agreed to many structural expenses during that period (e.g. rent is 1000). However, they quickly ran into trouble as the return dropped but their expenses did not (e.g. it is approimately 10 notes at 99 profit, it is 11 notes at 90 profit, and it is 20 notes at 50 profit - a doubling).
And that is EROI; there has to be an ENERGY profit in any scheme or it will NEVER work, particularly at industrial scale. Too many people simply focus on the fact a "100 dollar bill was produced" and not how much labor it took to produce it.
Regards,
Cooter
.
Well done!
We will dig up the next suitcase only if the cost to do that is less than the value of what is in the suitcase (plus maybe the suitcase itself if it is an antique).
Please send me a copy of the map Cooter
Merry Christmas
nice
EROEI is a bitch and a physical reality.
EROEI can't be expressed in dollars?
Wrong.
Can - but it only represents a small slice of time and still with numerous variables such as the relative movements of currencies involved in any exchange.
What is at the base of the energy scheme though is just energy. Energy in and energy out. Thermodynamics. Economics is just layered on top.
Wait until they won’t accept dollars for it anymore. Gonna get real ‘spensive for merikans at that point.
Totally ignorant of physics, your comment is.
Price is irrelevant.
Net energy is everything.
Crude oil is the concentrated product of sunlight captured by plants and then subjected to millions of years of geologic pressure and heat. These energy inputs do not exist in fresh sawgrass, and must be replicated by man to turn it into fuel.
If you spend two units of electrical energy to make one unit of liquid energy out of something like sawgrass or algae then you have net energy loss. The extra utility of the liquid energy may make it a worthwhile trade-off for the net energy loss, but obviously such a process is not sustainable at a large scale.
Oil is a very special hydrocarbon, and cannot be replaced at any scale once it is gone.
Truth is you are spouting nonsense. If drillers cannot extract at a price consumers can afford, it's done. It doesn't matter that the earth is awash in hydrocarbons if it is not net energy positive.
Good pro liberty
Recently read in a response to a ZH article on
the sky is falling really
beware peak oil
The replyer. Said. Google or Wiki
Methane clathrate (CH4·5.75H2O)
Then also google that the core of the earth is made of ferric carbide
Thats iron + carbon and the carbon has been feeding hydrogen
Was feeding and still is feeding --- has been feeding
Thats where our future oil will come from
Will we need new technology --yes
Will new tech cost -- it always has
Will new tech costs rise then fall - they always do
What technology was used to drill to drive a shaft into the earth to get oil.
That technology wasnt available 250 years ago
And oil drilling was just a dream
some say - IT CAN'T BE DONE - SPOUTING NONSENSE - IGNORANT
except they are doing it
http://www.siluria.com/
I am curious as to how you think gasoline could be produced without oil, and why you think it would not be cost-prohibitive - or energy-prohibitive {not attacking, just asking}.
My only other comment is that the US government can print money - but it doesn't. The FR does. That's a privately owned cartel. It is not the same thing.
One other thing down here they have natural gas pumps yesterday it was $1.96 and right up the road a Valero had unleaded for $2.04
What was the reason again for Nat gas vehicles.
Whatever happen to the Pickens Plan ???..
It is still there and quite active Seasmoke. Check out the website. He claims to have two million supporters. Maybe he does? Two million sheople is nothing. Spooky thought.
If the oil price drop is due to a boom in supply, then it will be a boon to the real economy. If the oil price drop due to a crash in demand, then it's a indicator that the real economy is fooked.
3rd world has no money to buy oil
many do not drive cars because it is too expensive for them
demand will increase somewhat with lower prices
"Trillion $ tax boost", placing mine 50-50 in Gold/Cash reserves. I also intend to raise my service rates again in 2015, TY bye bye come again you rich bastards.
Gold Bitchez....I pick up pennies
Origins of Peak Oil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cUg3lDgJ20
..
yeah, the energy expert with a thousand wind turbines laying around in the middle of nowhere gathering dust
WTF should oil go back to 90-100$ if demand is weak ? Last time it did this (30 to 90$) was on massive ZIRP supercharge. The bullets are already fired this time around.
Joe does have a point on "peak". It cant be peak if we supplied more. Sounds like TBP is making the point the peak oil happened ex US. Then US came online. I assume he means US can only make up the difference so long before we fall. This seems to be true in the US as oil rigs are profitable at $75-$90 dollars. Joe is arguing definitions rather than reality.
So let's change the definition for joe: peak oil occurs when the breakeven point of new wells is above current price. Who gives a shit if we find a quadrillion billion barrels on Mars?
Umm... by definition, it can't be peak oil if you find more......
Finding is not producing and peak oil is about the production rate of crude oil.
Now that's about the stupidest statement I heard about Peak Oil.
If anything, "Peak Oil" would mean the hard limit of amount of oil to be found in the ground.
When you start adding any condition such as "extractable with a positive EROI" it is not a hard limit anymore, because the techniques used to extract oil may get improved.
One can even argue that peak oil is no hard limit either, because we can synthesize oil ourselves if we have available the needed energy to do so.
Even leaving out nuclear/fission reactor possibilities, the amount of energy we receive from the sun should make clear we are not lacking energy itself, but only the means to put it to use.
"If anything, "Peak Oil" would mean the hard limit of amount of oil to be found in the ground."
But that is not what peak oil means.
As to synthetic - where would the energy to fabricate it come from, and why not use that energy source as the primary rather than squander it to create another form of stored energy? Maybe I'm missing something [always possible!]
Did the length of my post exceed your attention span?
US production is up but globally speaking the production of crude oil has been mostly flat for the past 5 years.
Before you reply with a graph make sure it doesn't include lease condensate or natural gas liquids.
This is about crude oil only.
It's called the "wavy plateau" and is expected by anyone who understands "peak oil" as more than just a term in a headline.
If Hubbert's curve is peak oil theory then the wavy plateau is peak oil reality on a global scale. We are at peak oil right now, on the wavy plateau. Shale oil is one of the waves in the wavy pleateau, keeping us from going over the edge for a while longer.
".....Shale oil is one of the waves in the wavy pleateau...."
.
Wag- I think you nailed it. Kernan doesn't understand Peak oil. His simple mind thinks it means that's the day we run out and since it didn't happen in 2005, it ain't gonna happen. He's simple minded besides being an assclown
Dont buy your gold jewlery from the Ukraine right now....yes rigs will shut down...all those strippers up in North Dakota will go home....the boom will be bust...Mobile homes for sale all over the place....and our growth for the last few years will slow down....I think our growth of the last 6 years has been up 30% buy the oil drilling....now that goes bye bye....for awhile..oil will be back..but it will take 3-4 years I think....or a war..whichever comes first...
Mr Angry. Clearly he is feeling the pressure of $55 buck oil. I love how he thinks the world was doing just fine with oil at $100. He might have been doing fine with oil at 100 but for avg joe's, filling their cars, heating their homes oil at 55 or lower will help a lot. So sick of all these smart arse cnts.....
Conventional oil peaked in 2005
THE DECLINE OF THE WORLD’S MAJOR OIL FIELDS
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2013/0412/The-decline-of-the-world-s-major-oil-fields
Why the Oil Industry is Running Into Major Trouble
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/06/joe-costello-oil-industry-running-major-trouble.html
FORMER BP GEOLOGIST: PEAK OIL IS HERE AND IT WILL ‘BREAK ECONOMIES’
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/dec/23/british-petroleum-geologist-peak-oil-break-economy-recession
THE TRUTH BEHIND SAUDI ARABIA’S SPARE CAPACITY
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2011/03/04/the-truth-behind-saudi-arabias-spare-capacity/
moonbats arriving in 3, 2, 1...
And taking new sites offline will damage overall production rates for years to come.
Here's some stats worth checking every once in awhile.
Short Term Energy Outlook -
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm
I thought this was fitting under this read to put "pure evil" which is this motherfucker T. Boone next to "pure good" and to ask yourself who you'd rather sit at the dinner table with to share a meal this holiday season?
No replys on this one necessary
Merry Xmas Everyone
Yeah.
Who doesn't like an American oil man who comes out 5 years after the looting of Iraq part two and declares those god damn camel jockeys should just hand over all that oil to their liberators for everything we've done for them!
What's not to love? He must be a dual citizen cause he sure thinks like one!
Low demand with high production (for now at least) and dropping prices. Slowing the velocity of USD. Hmmm... got to put on the thinking cap here.
Good points, now the question is which bank was long oil....because a bank is about to get margin called after being leveraged to the hilt long.
Grapevine says most of the big banks are long oil and this could get funny in a few months.
On the surface it all looks one way. The more this onion gets peeled back it starts to look like something different. Just speculating as the saga unfolds!
Some were long some were short and some were very long and some are very short....
....only the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets knows.
Si if as Pickens says everything runs fine at any 'awwwl' price, then why even pay attention to oil price anyway? Also I don't agree with his 'tax cut' nonsense, you'll get dinged either way.
T. Boone isn't used to dealing with total morons who interrupt him every six seconds. He doesn't surround himself with "Joes."
We are about to peak on TOTAL global supply. When that happens, it is game over. $147 will look cheap
12-1st half 89.68128717
12-2nd half 89.83083083
13-1st half 89.61196729
13-2nd half 90.69364283
14-1st half 91.10622417
Hi!
Do you have that data compiled into any neat format?
Thanks!
Why sure, http://alturl.com/bege5
Peak oil off your gas guzzling cars. This charade is to promote the Santa Claus rallying for end of year promotion. This is nothing more than an oil supply vs. demand shit cake. Thankfully, all combined cars have over 300+ gallons stored in gas tank. Fuck you Obama!
Which bank was long oil? Which bank will get a margin call leveraged 50 to 1? Which one will it be?
Pickens apparently knows his OIL...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/oil-light-sweet-crudeelliott-wave-upd...
Oil's price is based on more than slave's purchasing gas
G20 Profits Off Massive Subsidies For Fake Peak Oil
Russia and U.S. Spread Arctic War Fear Over Nothing
Caspian Strategy Institute Analyst Claims “The U.S. and Saudi Arabia alone do not have the power to seriously affect oil prices...."
Oil Price Crash Brings Big Profits For Swiss Banks, Investment Corps
Dubai’s Gold & Commodities Xchange DGCX To Start Russian Ruble-Futures, Gold and Oil Contracts
Exxon Sees Abundant Oil & Gas Far Into Future…..What Happened To Peak Oil?
Cheaper Oil Could Be a Gift for Big Energy Companies – Baron’s
Is he saying the lower rig count is a cause and not an effect of lower oil prices? He was acting confused, maybe he didn't get the talking points memo before the interview.
well while oil prices are being "managed downwardly" russia HAS to sell it's gas to Europe .........
oil prices will go up in the spring.
I still believe it's going to be a cold winter in Europe. I can't see Russia not having to fall back on it's gas as an economic weapon against them. And if the attacks on Russia continue for a year then next winter Europe will freeze to death.
Putin knows that if the Qatar/Iran Natural gas pipeline gets built then it's game over for Putin and Russia. That's why Obama is thawing relations with Iran and why we haven't heard a whisper about Iran's nuclear program in months. Russia has no place in the New World Order. The only way to integrate them is to break the country up into smaller more managable parts. China will be easy to integrate though once they are given control of the Siberian oil reserves.
Anyways to make a long story short - The cattle are doomed.
11°C today in Berlin. In mid winter as we pass the solstice. That isn't cold at all. 5 years ago it was -30°C at the same time of year.
Hang on now...
Right up front in response to the question about oil, "What happened?". Pickens responded, "Too much oil". And he went on to say, "And the oversupply of oil has actually come from the United States."
What he says about demand is this, "The thing that has been not too much focus on is that demand is down. Forecast demand for the world was another 1,300,000 barrels this year. And half of that is what we got."
This exchange doesn't exactly match the theme of this article.
So it is a simple supply and demand graph, the bog standard ones we did in
economics many moons ago GCJ. I enjoyed Pickens piece he didnt lie.
To CNBC news-hair shill: "I'm the expert, not you".
Well duh. the only expertise any of those fucktards have is in how to lie from dawn to dusk and beyond.
Pickens Water-to-Riches Dream Unravels as 11 Texas Cities Scoop Up Rights
T. Boned Pickens is not a very smart businessman. His ends up walking on every cow patty.
Oh, OK, I guess that means that consumption has fallen 100% lockstep with the price?
everything is so manipulated that no one can tell for certain what is going on.
U.S. Oil demand remains 4 million barrels a day below the peak demand in 2008. U.S .shale oil production is nearing a peak already regardless of the current slowdown and declining rig count that was happening in the Bakken as early as October before the price crash. Peak Conventional oil was 2005 as Boone said. Shale oil is not conventional oil production. All the folks still hoping for Santa Claus in the oil patch are delusional. The marginal production is very expensive and vulnerable to lower prices....duh! The big issue remains NET ENERGY....meaning you can't run our world when you invest the equivalent of a barrel of oil to produce a barre and a half.....thats the case in much of the shale oil production.....
How Joe dumbass Kernan can even begin to be so stupid after hearing about Peak Oil for so many years and still not done any due diligence on the definition much less the facts is the true testament to his mental midget brain. Becky has been on the scene to long I can remember years ago when she was not such a smug arrogant bitch.... Nothing completes the picture of their ignorance more than constantly intrerupting with their guest with insane comments of their own ignorance....Pathetic.
Please consider if T Boone is admitting Peak Oil its not just because he thinks it will make him more money its because its the truth and as an 86 year old man he isn't just worried about getting more $$$. He wants the U.S. to make the right decisions on its energy future.
In case you missed it the first time....
http://srsroccoreport.com/big-trouble-for-the-bakken-oil-field-has-the-bust-begun/big-trouble-for-the-bakken-oil-field-has-the-bust-begun/
Funny, BP seems to disagree: http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/statisti...
I'm using EIA data.....2008 BPD 20,700,000 BPD,
Last weeks Refinery output 16,300,000 (throw out a million BPD for imported gasoline and distillates imported) and you have 19.7-16.3 = 3.4 Million BPD) Those aren't total apples to apples but I should have used ~.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million barrels per day during the week ending December 12, 2014, 326,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 93.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging about 9.7 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased slightly last week, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day
[PDF] Weekly Petroleum Status Report - U.S. Energy Information ...Not complete data but won't have that for some time.
Just to make clear. "Shale oil" is NOT oil. It's a substance called kerogen which has to be processed at 200°C to turn it into oil.
"....."Shale oil" is NOT oil.......
Indeed....
It is all about EROEI........
Well, according to this, demand isn't down so much in the USA.
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
Kernan is an @ss.
TBoone needs more coffee.
CNBC producers should recognise that their bang-bang-bang format does not allow world authorities to get anything across to the public.
I have not been back to CNBC for afew years and can see it was a well justified avoidance. What a bunch of @sshats
Nor have I. Becky is using Clorox bleach to tint her hair. I was shocked to see how she looked this morning.
What is going on with Keystone XL Pipeline?
White House hires former Keystone lobbyist as Senate liaison
IMO....... It's all manipulated,,, everything. If this group can move the Dow 1000 points in a week then oil or anything else won't present a problem. Exactly why they are reducing the price only they could tell you, but whatever the case I am 99% sure it's manipulated like the rest of our world. Charts and bullshit won't cut it,,, you need 'real' investigative journalists to dig this shit out and like 'real' anything in this world ,,, they don't exist. Even if they did, it would be more accidental nail gun discharges to the head. But I guess it's fun to read all the different theories presented.
Merry Christmas,,, and a Happy New Manipulated Year.
Boone is wrong
its not weak demand .... it's oversupply
the global economy is in the tank
it's weak demand AND over supply
there, fixed it for you
You're all wrong. Its strategic.
It's a combo of both.
I too think oil prices will rebound in 12-18 months after the supply side of the industry has a chance to react to the recent price shocks. I’m in the camp that sees $80-90 / bbl as the number where it will stabilize, since I think this is where the Saudi’s really want the price to be too.
But, I’m still waiting for the right signal to get long. That will be when the MSM pulls out their big gun Jackie DeAngelis and she starts an interview with Pickens by berating him for being long oil (like she did with Bill Fleckenstein on gold). That will be the moment to go all in.
Pickens is wrong about "reduced demand"; supply would normally be adjusted to reflect that.
The elephant in the room is a malfunctioning oil market directly due to political interference that is preventing supply reductions, initially intended to wreck the Russian economy by deliberately crashing the price.
As for CNBC - what a prat maximus the guy is who argued about Peak Oil. Not a f*&^ing clue.
Thank God I don't watch CNBC.
Naimi now spreading around the pain as explained here :
http://127.0.0.1:1886/startpageapi/redirect_to_item_from_sp?item_id=4285...
That seems to be a non-working link.
For me it only gets:
Unable to connect
Firefox can't establish a connection to the server at 127.0.0.1:1886.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/saudis-tell-shale-industry-will-b...
Yes bum connection. I picked it up too.
127.0.0.1 is your own PC, where you downloaded the file.
I had to activate some brain cells that I thought I had killed a long time ago. Wasn't this the oil-baron windmill/solar guy from the 90's? Yep, it's that guy. Then I remembered the the Pickens Plan. Right. I think CNBC is lame so don't get me wrong. Lameness squared.
He's also the water guy here in the Texas Panhandle.
This asshole Pickens was born in 1928 and he is still not dead yet. Greenspan is another asshole born in 1926. I should live so long as these assholes do? I guess life must be easy on you if you never did a days work in your life and you live forever on everyone elses work. There are plenty more examples but you get the point.
They drink children's blood before returning to their coffins at daybreak.
Fucking ignorant CNBC fuck sticks. People who listen to their bullshit on a daily basis get what they deserve. Rig count motherfuckers!
CNBC - USELESS & WORTHLESS FOR OVER 30+ YEARS. Money-honeys feeding the Sheeple "all is well and bullish" until their brains seep out their ears.
www.traderzoo.mobi
"Respect my authoritah!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gx4jn77VKlQ
Woohoo! I just forwarded an email!
I forgot that hosts name after I stopped watching a while back. I have never seem him so disrespectful. Pickens should learn how to blog and just come here.
Yea really, the guy is a nothing. The average accountant probably makes more than him.
How does all of this help me get into Amanda Drury's underpants?
You're going to have to show her your drilling equipment first. No two ways about that.
I've always thought Mandy would be a wild ride. Nice funbags too
Sneak into her house while she's at work :)
Oh yea, Pickens the expert with the Pickens plan. Wind energy. LOL
But oddly enough, I agree with him as I had already predicted price declines in commodities since that is what happens in a deflationary environment.
But that won't matter since wages and jobs will be lost so even lower prices for anything will still seem expensive to the common man.
don't forget his benevolence a few years back when he tried to corner the Ogallala aquifer.
From Magoo's last link:
"The Saudis have also made public plans to start injecting carbon dioxide into the world’s largest oil field, Ghawar, no later than 2013. CO2 injection is what you do when an oil field starts yielding progressively less oil. It gooses the output…for a little while.
The plans come as no surprise from the Saudis, given Ghawar was discovered in 1948."
Note the Article was written in 2011.
I also read (can't remember where) that the Saudis won't slow production because they CANT slow production. If they stop pumping CO2 or whatever they're using now to push out the oil, the fields will start filling with seawater.
It's not nearly as much fun as a geo-political conspiracy visiting hedgemonic doom against our enemies, but it seems plausible as regular old fashioned science.
It would be interesting to hear what a boots-on-the-ground Ghawar oilfield engineer has to say on the subject.
It's a link but still: I have noted elsewhere that the data I am being told by engineers who have actually worked on Ghawar, that this decade will see it's peak. (Morton, 2004 PSCF in press). : http://www.resilience.org/stories/2004-07-29/trouble-worlds-largest-oil-...
Search Ghawar water cut
ps. and really technical: http://www.321energy.com/editorials/staniford/staniford051807.html (Stuart Staniford www.theoildrum.com May 18,2007)
Those CNBC anchors are so annoying. Just let the old man speak for Christ sake
exactly, we can take the old man's bullshit .... but the anchors.... I would never watch that crap if it wasn't linked
EAT A BIG BAG OF DICKS PICKENS!
There.....I feel better now. They should put me of CNBC...I'll say it right to his face.
The old man is no "expert". Notice how billionaires are always referred to as experts. Most are not experts. They are just lucky. Any one of us could get lucky as well.
These old fucks never shut up do they.
Merry Christmas!
Unless you have ALL the info for supply & demand, these charts are useless. It seems clear to me that US domestic production and oil sands (both high cost) have oversupplied the market. SA can maintain their levels as their cost of production is lower than probably anybody else, a great competitive advantage. Lets see if they buy up the crippled domestic producers after the fallout.
Peak Oil Denial
At the end of 2014, in a well-established, government proclaimed recovery from the crash of 2008, supported by new highs in the DJIA and S&P500 and without the discovery of new, large, deposits of oil, the price of a barrel of oil plummets from $110 to $55.
In the 7 months from the beginning of the Recession of 2007 (the recession which began in December 2007 but was not declared until December 2008), the price of a barrel of oil went from $90 to $147, indicating a reduced supply, increased demand, or, more likely, the usual suspects manipulating the market for their own evil gains.
Today most everyone with a high school equivalency diploma, understands the threat of Peak Oil to their existence and is weighted down, cap a pie, in the armor of denial and has lost all semblance to objectivity.
Present company excepted.
I can't believe this old fucker is alive. He was old when I was young, now I am old and this fucker is still alive! Fuck, is he 120 years old?
Must have "earrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrl" running through his veins...
What I wanna know is........
WHAT is this Jurrasic fuck doing going on cnbc?
The whole fucking network is lousy with liberal cuntrags - sans Santelli....and I am of the mind that Rick needs to shove off that train wreck of a shit-work.
It reminds me of some cop video I saw a while ago. The cops yells I'm in charge here not you
The poor weak minded pathetic fools crying for attention and demanding that you recognize their power and authoritie
Another example of respect is earned not given by demands. That is unless you falsely believe you've earned it by advancing in the hierarchy. The poor delusional fools have a rude awakening coming as their faux power and authority crumbles in the planned global collapse
Peak oil was never about prices, but about production. Production of conventional oil has already peaked and this price movement certainly will make sure all of it has peaked.
Cheap oil makes war less expencive for the US and boosts consumer spending. This whole thing is manipulated.
I experienced the last oil implosion first hand from 1985 through 1990. I worked as an auditor for C&L in Denver, which at that time had an economy heavily based on energy (unlike today which is based on another form of energy, i.e., weed). There was no question that the oil belt which ran from the plains through Denver and Oklahoma and basically all of Texas suffered mightly. I know the economy in Denver was in the tank for 4+ years which saw numerous business failures, consumer BKs, real estate problems, you name it as a direct or indirect result of this event. As for this event, please remember the following:
- First, the benefit to consumers via lower gas prices was more "immediate" as retail gasoline prices dropped relatively quickly. The negative impact on the regional economy was more gradual as the energy industry finally realized their situation and adjusted with lower capital expenditures, job cuts, business consolidations (stronger consumed the weaker), etc. The full effect of the correction took at least two years to realize but make no mistake, it impacted every segment of the regional economy from retail sales to residential real estate prices to auto purchases to commercial development to government revenues (and spending on infrastructure, schools, etc.).
- Second, notice the drop-off in domestic oil production starting in the mid 1980's time frame. Actually, domestic oil production held-up until about 1987 at which point it finally took a deep and prolonged drop. I don't think there's any doubt that this was directly associated wtih the price dropping by over 50% a BBL but also emphasizes the lag effect associated with these types of events (which has been discussed on ZH previously). That is, with oil cap ex already committed for 2014 and some for 2015, oil production doesn't just turn off immediately as these "sunk" costs are already gone so you might as well produce as much product above variable costs as possible (as the money has already been spent). Further, in order to protect revenue levels, oil production may increase temporarily to increase unit sales in a falling per unit pricing environment. Thus, oil supplies may continue to remain stable or actually increase in 2015 as domestic wells are squeezed for production, OPEC refuses to give on marketshare, and the other BRICs attempt to sell as much oil for USDs as possible.
- As for the argument about the impact on the domestic economy being positive (lower gas prices) or negative (damage to the energy industry), in 1985 the feeling was that more of the US's consumption of oil was based on foreign supplies and thus by the price dropping, this would help the trade balance and represent more of a tax cut for the general US population. This time, with more of the US consumption tied to domestic production, I'm not sure the tax cut argument holds as well but I do think in the short-term, a net benefit of lower gas prices will assist the domestic economy (but not as much as various economists think).
- As for the financial/collateral risks, these are very real and could be extremely problematic. I witnessed more than a few banks fail in Denver during the late 1980's as well as in Texas. Maybe this time the banks don't have the full risk but there are a ton of debt products floating around that are sitting in someone's portfolio that will eventually blow-up. Again, this is going to take some time as a number of energy companies will find a way to hold on (restructure debt agreements/default waivers, utilize liquid resources, sell assets, leverage production, etc.) for 6, 12, and maybe 24 months but eventually, economic reality will set in. I can't tell you how many energy related investment funds, comapnies, etc. failed in Denver in the late 1980's.
- Finally and if you recall, the oil bust of the late 1980's was followed by the commercial real estate and S&L implosion which started in 1990 to 1991 timeframe. Excessive speculation combined with poor interest rate management doomed these two industries joined at the hip. Just look to the carnage in the S&L industry in California through 1995 (Home Fed to Home Dead, Imperial, etc.). Adding fuel to the fire in California in the early 1990's was the cutbacks in the defense industry which was the icing on the cake for residential real estate which saw countless home buyers quickly go underwater with purchases made in the 1988 - 1991 time frame. The residential real estate market bottomed in 1994 with a number of home buyers not seeing positive equity again until the late 1990's.
My point to all of this is as follows. First, the real impact of the correction in oil prices has not even begun to be felt yet. While the consumer gets the immediate benefit, it's going to take another 12 to 24 months to digest the damage at the corporate/industry level. Second, the reference to the S&L implosion was made to highlight the significant risks present (and often hidden) with interest rates. S&L's got into trouble for a number of reasons but a key was the mismanagement of interest rate risks. Again and today, with the interest rates artificially surpressed, interest rate risk mismanagement potential is at all time highs, especially if the Fed begins to raise rates.
Thus, the debt/interest rate timebomb has already been planted (just like from 2004 through 2007) and the only thing that remains to light the fuse is when the Fed decides to raise rates as you can be assured something somewhere will absolutely blow-up and create the next crisis.
Good contextual summary. Thanks.
good stuff.
Smaller banks and those outside the Fed's matrix may indeed fail, which the Fed and large banks love, meanwhile the biggest impact will be on the large banks/default swaps - but fortunately, Congress has enacted Citi's legislation, and the taxpayer will be required to backstop any losses, again, while the banks keep any ill-gotten gains, again.
As to 12-24 months, I think that for various reasons, things move much faster than they did 20 or 30 years ago and you may see some unintended consequences as early as February/March. I may be wrong, however.
First CNBC's Cinderella then Dumber ass Dumb and then Psycho's Norman Bates. Quite a freak show LOlz
I heard someone on Tom Keene's show (Bloomberg) say this morning that Opec wont cut each others throat's to lower the price of oil. It made me think in terms of metaphors. 1) literally they WIll cut each others throats 2) metaphorically all business is about cut-throat competition, isnt it?
I mean really , why should we take up for these Sheiks and Sultans when every small business in America - from restaurants to lawyers to refineries has a narrow margin with which to live off. Only politicians (once they are elected) and Google seem to have no competitors - whereby their margins get compressed by competition. I have no sympathy! Like one poster said- be on your guard when oil prices start going up and CNBC hacks start to justify it as a really good thing.
I heard someone on Tom Keene's show (Bloomberg) say this morning that Opec wont cut each others throat's to lower the price of oil. It made me think in terms of metaphors. 1) literally they WIll cut each others throats 2) metaphorically all business is about cut-throat competition, isnt it?
I mean really , why should we take up for these Sheiks and Sultans when every small business in America - from restaurants to lawyers to refineries has a narrow margin with which to live off. Only politicians (once they are elected) and Google seem to have no competitors - whereby their margins get compressed by competition. I have no sympathy! Like one poster said- be on your guard when oil prices start going up and CNBC hacks start to justify it as a really good thing.
the notion that oil prices are so essentially reactive to mere supply and demand is dubious, at best.
Then again, the conventional view is that the US is bombing Syrian refineries to stop ISIS from selling gas to Europe via Turkey and Israel, rather than primarily doing so to destroy Syria's economic infrastructure.
Link ?
Joe Kernan is probably the worst interviewer in the public domain. What a pompus bonehead-- that wont STFU! CNBC is full of shit-- they would never step in front of Warren Buffett like they tried to do with Boone. They would have their collective noses up Buffett's ass to far to accomplish that!
Gawd, Kernan is an asshole. And Quick is like a dime store little kewpie doll and what the fuck is Sorkin doing on TV? No blowjobs to give in DC today?
I haven't seen CNBC in years but the cast of fucktards never changes. At least it's highly rated. Bwaaaaaah
"I'm a self appointed expert!!"
Methylcyclohexanemethanol, an absinthe-like primary alcohol, is the reason for the death of the Frack, by way of King Coal. It killed a town or two in a way that to this day makes Erin Brokovitch wet under her rig.
It's one thing when it's in your air freshener, polluting your home while happily keeping your husband's stank at bay.
It's quite another when it's in your drinking water turning your kids into their own inner fish.
MCHM, the change we've asked for.
Dihydrogen Monoxide
Is Becky Quick being made into a "Clone" of Sue Herrera?
Cue the next fake war.
At this point it would be entertaining for Skynet to finally come online and kick everyone's ass.
Web sites like Our Finite World, Doomstead Diner, or Economic Undertow, have been talking about the trends stated above consistently and clearly for at least a couple of years.
The ability of private banks to make the public "money" supply out of nothing as debts, wherein that kind of "money" can also disappear back to nothing, is OBJECTIVELY INSANE, because that system of ENFORCED FRAUDS was the result of the successful application of the methods of organized crime to the political processes, in order to result in systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, whose basic ABSURDITIES are that they appear to get away with deliberately ignoring the laws of nature, since the ONLY connection between human laws and natural laws is the ability to back up lies with violence. Therefore, the "money" supply seems to be made out of nothing and can disappear back to nothing, in ways which at first glance violate the most basic laws of nature, such as the conservation of matter and energy, and momentum, etc. ... Of course, that system of ENFORCED FRAUD does not actually violate the laws of nature, but only appears so, to the degree that those are ENFORCED FRAUDS. But nevertheless, those ENFORCED FRAUDS totally dominate our political economy, and therefore, should always be the central concerns during any analysis regarding the prices or costs of goods or services.
"Demand destruction" is likely to become wilder and wilder oscillations, which will eventually result in destruction of the lives of the majority of people. The so-called "financialization" of all economic activities, which is actually the result of triumphant frauds, makes its fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems warp everything, in ways which oscillate more wildly, which often appear to be profoundly PARADOXICAL, because those oscillations are due to ways that civilization is controlled by systems of ENFORCED FRAUDS.
In that context, one can confidently count on society approaching times of PEAK INSANITIES. Controlling civilization through systems of ENFORCED FRAUDS, which tend to deliberately ignore and distort the basic laws of nature, because those systems ONLY connect human laws to natural laws through the ability to back up lies with violence, drive the political economy to behave in ways which automatically become more criminally insane, faster ... In my view, it is vital to understand the profound degree to which that problem goes as deep as one can possible look down its "rabbit hole," where the lies are different at every level. Note only are the problems presented to the public in ways which tend to be backwards, the "solutions" tend to also be presented as backwards too.
The ouroboros of incorporated robberies of ENFORCED FRAUDS is quite paradoxical to follow through its twists and turns. There IS a real connection between natural laws and human laws, which IS the ability to back up lies with violence. However, there are no other functional connections, and therefore, understanding that situation is to encounter a hyper-complicated system of feedback loops, most of which are deliberately ignored by most people. Ultimately, everything eats everything else. There are toroidal vortices nested inside of other toroidal vortices, and they are are built by infinite loops through the environment.
Human systems are entropic pumps of energy through the environment. However, the ways that those actually work are through systems of lies backed by violence, which is fundamentally the way that it must be, but which also includes the ways that the people doing that engage in the maximum possible deceits and frauds while doing that. Therefore, not only ARE human systems organized lies operating robberies, but they MUST BE! Therefore, money is measurement backed by murder, while that situation is deliberately denied and ignored by people to the maximum degree possible. Those ENFORCED FRAUDS that made "money" out of nothing "paid" for strip-mining the Earth's natural resources. That was all done by people who were socially successful by being the best professional liars and immaculate hypocrites that they could possibly be.
The situation we are looking at is that the debt controls were backed up by the death controls. The runaway debt slavery systems have generated numbers which have become debt insanities, which are manifesting as "demand destruction." That "demand destruction" is headed towards provoking unprecedented levels of death insanities. The primary reasons for that are that the established systems are unable to face the facts about themselves, since those facts are that they are based on ENFORCED FRAUDS. Furthermore, the major secondary reason for that is that the controlled opposition groups who pretend to be against the established systems tend to also be inside of the same frame of reference of ENFORCED FRAUDS.
When I listened to Pickens in that embedded video above, I heard him as saying that "Peak Oil" was an overall physically real phenomenon, while the mainstream media moronic talking head did not understand, because those kinds of talking heads do not want to understand, the more objectively real situations. Those more objectively real situations are how human civilization has operated as an entropic pump of energy within its environment, which developed its history to do that through the maximum possible deceits and frauds, because that was what was actually internally consistent with human civilization operating as an entropic energy pump.
There continues to be a growing grand canyon chasm between human beings understanding general energy systems better and better, while deliberately NOT applying that to them understanding themselves. The reasons are relatively obvious, that human realities were the dynamic equilibria of different systems of organized lies operating robberies, in which context, the most socially successful were the best professional liars and hypocrites, whose lies were best backed up with destruction done through deceits and treacheries.
It is theoretically possible for human beings to understand themselves in ways which could be better reconciled with understanding the energy flows through industrial and natural systems. However, in practice that would require addressing the ways that human laws only connected to natural laws through the abilities to back up lies with violence, which is how and why we ended up with fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems, wherein "money" could appear out of nothing, and disappear back to nothing, in ways which completely contradicted the basic laws of nature, because the ways that human activities were consistent with natural laws were ONLY those whereby lies could be backed up with violence.
As we rush at an exponentially accelerating rate towards the limits of diminishing returns from being able to strip-mine the Earth's natural resources, the first places that shows up are inside of the financial systems based on ENFORCED FRAUDS. The results of those wild oscillations in the relative social successes due to being able to back up lies with violence, in order to keep the "financialization" going, are manifesting as "demand destruction." However, those wild oscillations have only started ... one must expect much worse oscillations, getting much wilder, in the foreseeable future, because the basic trends are that those systems of ENFORCED FRAUDS are headed towards psychotic breakdowns, as we approach some times of PEAK INSANITIES, which will be the main manifestation of trends towards Peak Everything Else.
There is NOT going to be linear phenomena in the ways that the ouroboros of incorporated robberies work themselves through. Rather, we are looking at the hyper-complicated developments of the feedback loops of ENFORCED FRAUDS becoming more psychotically detached from the relatively objective physical, biological and social facts. Theoretically speaking, human beings ought to be understanding natural selection better, in order to improve their cultural systems of artificial selection. However, the main obstacles in the way of doing that are that when one understands human systems as manifestations of general energy systems, then one discovers how and why human civilization operates as fractal patterns of the development of the principles and methods of organized crime, in which context governments are the biggest form of organized crime, controlled by the best organized gangs of criminals.
The basic realities are that human being NECESSARILY are systems of organized lies operating robberies. Human beings have always operated as robbers in their environment. Progress in science and technology have enabled the industrial revolutions to develop those to become the current systems of globalized electronic monkey money, backed by the threat of force of apes with atomic bombs. Militarism was the supreme ideology, while economics was a subset of militarism. That manifested through the combined murder/money systems, operating as ENFORCED FRAUDS. That was always the basic nature of our political economy and human ecology, and that was always as deliberately denied as possible, while instead being explained and defended through the biggest bullies' bullshit regarding that. It was not an accident that the philosophy of science ended up making some enormous errors, such as when an arbitrary minus sign was inserted into the entropy equations of thermodynamics and information theory.
The development of petroleum resources was matched by the development of thermodynamics, in order to understand how heat engines worked. As science progressed, it was discovered that power and information are literally on a continuum, and the same entropy equation regarding power from petroleum, etc., also works through the flow of information, as another form of energy. HOWEVER, that was all deliberately understood in ways which were inverted and perverted, because of the ways that the biggest bullies' bullshit dominated all social enterprises, including the history of science.
The harnessing of the previously inanimate energy sources in petroleum enabled civilization to use orders of magnitude more energy than previously. However, that all continued to be primarily done through the development of systems of ENFORCED FRAUDS, or through systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, which, of course, deliberately ignored and denied those basic facts about themselves. Therefore, wars for the control over oil resources were one of the main themes of the 20th Century, and relative success through those wars enabled the American Dollar to become the global reserve currency, as basically a system of ENFORCED FRAUDS.
Since the political economy is controlled by those ENFORCED FRAUDS, whereby the production of destruction controls production, there can be wild oscillations in the public "money" supply, since that can be made out of nothing, and disappear back to nothing, while that hyper-complicated ouroboros of incorporated robberies has an abundance of counter-intuitive manifestations, since the ability to back up lies with violence never stops those lies from being false, but nevertheless, those lies can continue to be socially successful, despite that they are false.
That situation is behind the paradoxical ways that "demand destruction" manifests, which wild oscillations will tend to be misunderstood by mainstream morons, as well as reactionary revolutionaries, who do not face the fundamental facts that money is measurement backed by murder. That is the context in which the measurement of petroleum takes place, which is how and why those measurements are ENFORCED FRAUDS, which can swing so wildly, from one absurd extreme to the other, so that the price of oil can go up and down by 50% during the course of several years, while the overall supply of oil on barely decreased during the same time.
The basic world economy is based on ENFORCED FRAUDS, which have leveraged up and UP everything by orders of magnitude of madness, due to them being based on MAD Money As Debt, backed by MAD Mutual Assured Destruction. Thereby, the grand canyon chasms are growing wider and wilder, between progress in physical sciences, without anything comparable to that taking place in political sciences.
Overall, we have not seen anything yet, because running into the limits of diminish returns from strip-mining the planet is only barely beginning to be significant, while its paradoxical effects through the ouroboros of incorporated robberies is being leveraged up and UP by orders of magnitude, due to the political economy being based on systems of ENFORCED FRAUDS, which are inherently unstable. However, since almost nobody is able and willing to face the fundamental facts that money is measurement backed by murder, therefore, we can not imagine developing any better human understandings of themselves. Instead, the degree of social success based on ENFORCED FRAUDS is driving society towards those debt insanities provoking death insanities. Along the way, events like "demand destruction," can drive the price of oil through crazy loops, which end up making things much worse overall.
The bottom line has always been that, after there is life, then the death controls are the central features of the evolutionary ecology of that life. Those central facts regarding natural selection pressures also have applied through the systems of artificial selection that human beings have developed. The history of oil continues to demonstrate that, with the banksters' systems of enforced frauds dominating the development of petroleum resources, in ways which were overall criminally insane, but which could not be prevented, since human civilizations were always operating as systems of lies backed by violence.
In order to apply a more scientific understanding through politics, one has to come to terms with the ways that the history of warfare developed to become most successful when based on deceits and treacheries, which then, in turn, was the foundation for the kind of political economy that operates through ENFORCED FRAUDS. However, such a deeper understanding can not continue use false fundamental dichotomies, which then proposes bogus "solutions" based on impossible ideals. Rather, the opposite is the case.
Only that which actually exists can actually evolve. What actually exists is an ouroboros of incorporated robberies which is the dynamic equilibria of different systems of organized lies operating robberies, the most important of which developed throughout the 19th and 20th Centuries, into the 21st Century, to be built on extracting petroleum resources. However, during that time, we also saw the basic concepts of heat engines operating through the principles of thermodynamics be extrapolated through development of the capacities of things like electronics and atomic energy.
Throughout that time, the basic errors in the concept of entropy kept on getting bigger and BIGGER in their social consequences, such as that we now have globalized systems of electronic monkey money, backed by apes with atomic bombs. That is the context in which people are fighting over what are, for the first time in human history, the relatively dwindling stock of petroleum resources. Paradoxically, due the quite crazy nature of the ENFORCED FRAUDS that the banksters built on top of oil, etc., those events are driving "demand destruction" for large numbers of people, which effects are being leveraged up and UP, by the nonlinear feedback loops in the established ouroboros of incorporated robberies!
dear ole dad, the idiot
Hit the nail on the head there...do believe there is some dollar strength issue here as all the oil is coming from 3rd world countries so as dollars move must be having an impact on oil prices along with the fact that the Vampire Squid takes orders from the Pentagon and that missive was clearly to hurt Putin and Russia due to Crimea takeover. Your list is probably a third of the impact with these two items being the other 2/3rds.