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2015 Will Be All About Iran, China And Russia

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Authored by Pepe Escobar, originally posted at Sputnik News,

Fasten your seatbelts; 2015 will be a whirlwind pitting China, Russia and Iran against what I have described as the Empire of Chaos.

So yes – it will be all about further moves towards the integration of Eurasia as the US is progressively squeezed out of Eurasia. We will see a complex geostrategic interplay progressively undermining the hegemony of the US dollar as a reserve currency and, most of all, the petrodollar.

For all the immense challenges the Chinese face, all over Beijing it's easy to detect unmistakable signs of a self-assured, self-confident, fully emerged commercial superpower. President Xi Jinping and the current leadership will keep investing heavily in the urbanization drive and the fight against corruption, including at the highest levels of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Internationally, the Chinese will accelerate their overwhelming push for new 'Silk Roads' – both overland and maritime – which will underpin the long-term Chinese master strategy of unifying Eurasia with trade and commerce.

Global oil prices are bound to remain low. All bets are off on whether a nuclear deal will be reached by this summer between Iran and the P5+1. If sanctions (actually economic war) against Iran remain and continue to seriously hurt its economy, Tehran’s reaction will be firm, and will include even more integration with Asia, not the West.

Washington is well-aware that a comprehensive deal with Iran cannot be reached without Russia’s help. That would be the Obama administration’s sole – and I repeat – sole foreign policy success. A return to the “Bomb Iran” hysteria would only suit the proverbial usual (neo-con) suspects. Still, by no accident, both Iran and Russia are now subject to Western sanctions. No matter how it was engineered, the fact that stands is that the current financial/strategic oil price collapse is a direct attack against (who else?) Iran and Russia. 

That derivative war

Now let’s take a look at Russian fundamentals. Russia’s government debt totals only 13.4% of its GDP. Its budget deficit in relation to GDP is only 0.5%.  If we assume a US GDP of $16.8 trillion (the figure for 2013), the US budget deficit totals 4% of GDP, versus 0.5% for Russia. The Fed is essentially a private corporation owned by regional US private banks, although it passes itself off as a state institution. US publicly held debt is equal to a whopping 74% of GDP in fiscal year 2014. Russia’s is only 13.4%.

The declaration of economic war by the US and EU on Russia – via the run on the ruble and the oil derivative attack – was essentially a derivatives racket. Derivatives – in theory – may be multiplied to infinity. Derivative operators attacked both the ruble and oil prices in order to destroy the Russian economy. The problem is, the Russian economy is more soundly financed than America's.

Considering that this swift move was conceived as a checkmate, Moscow’s defensive strategy was not that bad. On the key energy front, the problem remains the West’s – not Russia’s. If the EU does not buy what Gazprom has to offer, it will collapse.

Moscow’s key mistake was to allow Russia's domestic industry to be financed by external, dollar-denominated debt. Talk about a monster debt trap  which can be easily manipulated by the West. The first step for Moscow should be to closely supervise its banks. Russian companies should borrow domestically and move to sell their assets abroad. Moscow should also consider implementing a system of currency controls so the basic interest rate can be brought down quickly.

And don’t forget that Russia can always deploy a moratorium on debt and interest, affecting over $600 billion. That would shake the entire world's banking system to the core. Talk about an undisguised “message” forcing the US/EU economic warfare to dissolve.

Russia does not need to import any raw materials. Russia can easily reverse-engineer virtually any imported technology if it needs to. Most of all, Russia can generate — from the sale of raw materials – enough credit in US dollars or euros. Russia's sale of its energy wealth — or sophisticated military gear — may decline. However, they will bring in the same amount of rubles — as the ruble has also declined. 

Replacing imports with domestic Russian manufacturing makes total sense. There will be an inevitable “adjustment” phase – but that won’t take long. German car manufacturers, for instance, can no longer sell their cars in Russia due to the ruble's decline. This means they will have to relocate their factories to Russia. If they don’t, Asia – from South Korea to China — will blow them out of the market.

Bear and dragon on the prowl

The EU's declaration of economic war against Russia makes no sense whatsoever. Russia controls, directly or indirectly, most of the oil and natural gas between Russia and China: roughly 25% of the world's supply. The Middle East is bound to remain a mess. Africa is unstable. The EU is doing everything it can to cut itself off from its most stable supply of hydrocarbons, prompting Moscow to redirect energy to China and the rest of Asia. What a gift for Beijing – as it minimizes the alarm about the US Navy playing with "containment" across the high seas. 

Still, an unspoken axiom in Beijing is that the Chinese remain extremely worried about an Empire of Chaos losing more and more control, and dictating the stormy terms of the relationship between the EU and Russia. The bottom line is that Beijing would never allow itself to be in a position where the US could interfere with China's energy imports – as was the case with Japan in July 1941 when the US declared war by imposing an oil embargo, cutting off 92% of Japanese oil imports.

Everyone knows a key plank of China’s spectacular surge in industrial power was the requirement for manufacturers to produce in China. If Russia did the same, its economy would be growing at a rate of over 5% per year in no time. It could grow even more if bank credit was tied only to productive investment.

Now imagine Russia and China jointly investing in a new gold, oil and natural resource-backed monetary union as a crucial alternative to the failed debt "democracy" model pushed by the Masters of the Universe on Wall Street, the Western central bank cartel, and neoliberal politicians. They would be showing the Global South that financing prosperity and improved standards of living by saddling future generations with debt was never meant to work in the first place.

Until then, a storm will be threatening our very lives – today and tomorrow. The Masters of the Universe/Washington combo won’t give up their strategy to make Russia a pariah state cut off from trade, the transfer of funds, banking and Western credit markets and thus prone to regime change.

Further on down the road, if all goes according to plan, their target will be (who else) China. And Beijing knows it. Meanwhile, expect a few bombshells to shake the EU to its foundations. Time may be running out – but for the EU, not Russia. Still, the overall trend won’t be altered; the Empire of Chaos is slowly but surely being squeezed out of Eurasia.

You can buy Pepe Escobar’s latest book "Empire of Chaos" here

 

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Sat, 01/03/2015 - 06:09 | 5617931 OhNo
OhNo's picture

It's all one team one dream, Red white and blue say the flags good guys vs bad guys and Russia will save us all and we keep hoping thats true. Its all part of the Problem Reaction Solution model and we all keep falling for it. I think it truly is full spectrum domanice. But those fuckin lizards sure are scared of something.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 11:32 | 5618258 GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

"But those fuckin lizards sure are scared of something."

Yup agree, they have figured like many others there is no "new consumptive area to create growth" or "empty cupboards to hid more debt and derivative skeletons". They maxed the system in both these areas and now we revert to type of the 30's and a depression.

Only one way out WW3 but under that scenario all modern weapons chances are humankind becomes extinct and who perishes or not becomes very uncertain.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 06:42 | 5617960 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Unless it is about 5-10 Big Events all in 2015.

Repost:

15.5% Bankruptcy Rate per person over 20 Years for US Citizens (Snapshot in Time).

What does ZH Think about the Cost of Living, Jobs, Economy, and Health Care in Light of this???

1.7 Million People in US will Face Bankruptcy this year due to Medical Bills (Jim Cramer). 147 + 98 = 245 M working aged. 1.7 M / 245 M = .69% Bankruptcy Rate per year per person Minimum. A US Rate of .77% Bankruptcy rate per year per person is reasonable based on 1.7 M / 219.6 M aged over 25 years old.

20 Years Rate = 1.7 * 20 / 219.6 = 15.5% Bankruptcy Rate per person over 20 Years.

http://www.amednews.com/article/20130708/business/130709932/6/
http://www.debt.org/bankruptcy/statistics/
http://www.infoplease.com/us/census/data/demographic.html
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html

- 60% of bankruptcies are due to medical bills.
- Younger patients had two to five times higher rates of bankruptcy than cancer patients 65 or older.
- Since the early 1990s, bankruptcy has been used with increasing frequency by older individuals. While more senior citizens are declaring bankruptcy, a decreasing percentage of filers are younger than 25.

------------------------------
---- Bankruptcy Rate --------
------------------------------

115.6 million = Total Households
2.63 people per Household

74.3 Million people under 18 years old
244.7 Million people over 18 years old

99.4 Million people under 25 years old
219.6 Million people over 25 years old

319 Million = Total Population (FRED)
245 Million = Total Population over 16 years old (BLS)
147 Million = Total Employed (FRED & BLS)
92 Million = Total Not in Labor Force (FRED)
98 Million = Total Not in Labor Force (BLS over 16)

Active Population: Aged 25-54: Males for the United States©
2013: 53,964,000.00000 Persons (+ see more)
Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted, LFAC25MAUSA647S, Updated: 2014-02-05
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LFAC25MAUSA647S

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 11:21 | 5618249 GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

Well when you do not bust the banks, leave the bad debt in the system to come out somewhere what do you think was going to happen? Taxpayers and citizens go bust, bleed out the debt and real assets are taken in fire sales as assets by the bank.

A bankster win,win,win!

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 06:49 | 5617967 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Great strategic moves by Vlad and Xi.

What can the west cut off?

Add Russian natural Resources and Chinese Factories in one contained land mass and you can go your own way.

All they have to do now is de-dollarize.

The West has shot itself in the foot, and now needs to conceal that from the Serfs.

 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 11:15 | 5618240 GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

de-dollarize

Dump all reserve dollars they have and purchase any raw material that does not perish. Be like going to a wedding and all the dolllar confetti everywhere.

 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 08:45 | 5618048 IndianaJohn
IndianaJohn's picture

I ran.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 09:41 | 5618100 Rikeska
Rikeska's picture

This was placed as a revelatory lyric plant in 1982 by Flock of Seagulls.  Just like The Simpsons forewarning 9/11 and Family Guy  Malaya Airlines disappearance.  It's all right in front of you if you know where to look.

I quote. 

"And I ran"

 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 10:10 | 5618136 apocalypticbrother
apocalypticbrother's picture

USA/UK axis is going to "save face" by losing their currency, their gold , and their miltary might to the new world order. Headquarters in Astana Kazakhstan. Your guys have sold us all out a long time ago when usa went off gold standard. The gold is long gone. Watch the Illuminati slight of hand as the great cull begins and our kids do the heavy lifting...

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 15:35 | 5618788 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

"Iran is a western partner"

Appearances can be deceiving.

Iran, Turkey, India, and very likely Germany and France (at a minimum) are ready to swivel away from the West and towards a new Eastern construct with Russia and China.

All these countries are hedging their bets, any appearance of loyalty should be highly suspect.

Much of this will become clear throughout 2015.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 08:41 | 5618044 silverer
silverer's picture

Bitcoin? That's a template of how we should be handling the dollar. But there is that pesky printing press. Bitcoin problem? It's just like dollars: zeroes and ones on a computer. As many ZH readers have read, if you can't put it in a pile on the floor, stand on top of it and defend it with a weapon, then it isn't yours and probably never was. I think precious metals is probably the best we can ever do, because you can't make it up: you either have it, or you don't.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 12:40 | 5618396 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Bitcoin has no future as a store of value.

It may have a future as a transactional medium.

Gold has a past and future as a store of value.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 08:49 | 5618049 enloe creek
enloe creek's picture

well fuck me you all seem to think some government from some country is going to just emerge all competent and well meaning with organization and drive to save the world.  well we are truly truly fucked.  I feela good backwoods hiddeout will shelter you from a few months of chaos then you might be ok to go out and die at the hands of the truly fucked up survivors who got their end of world shit down 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 12:19 | 5618348 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

Lol, thats Brilliant enloe,

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 12:36 | 5618387 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

Yeah I'm thinking he's right. I'm giving myself a year, then full retard and it's over.

 

Gold Bitchez....I pick up trash

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:03 | 5618560 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Yeah...Full retard and then it is over.

 

If you really believe that then currently you have nothing left to lose. You are dead anyway.

 

Oh. Do not make the mistake that I am not agreeing with you. I am...er...

 

...just thinking aloud.

 

Know how to make land mines?

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 09:28 | 5618087 dsty
dsty's picture

EMPIRE OF CHAOS
VS
AXIS OF EVIL

AC, where are you, golfing? 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 09:59 | 5618126 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

"The EU is doing everything it can to cut itself off from its most stable supply of hydrocarbons"

I wonder is that the same supplier who cut off gas supplies as a bargaining method a few years ago? Stable my ass, Europe has had enough of Russia's bully tactics and would rather pay MORE for gas and oil than they would otherwise have to spend on military assets to keep the bear in it's cage. Choke on your oil Putin.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 10:29 | 5618149 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Then the Hollywood/Langley LLC will be doing well at the cinema this year with many stories to come to shape around toilet flusher thriller/comedies that never would have made it like "The Interview"...

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 10:48 | 5618180 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

I just had a scary thought.

What if the numbers were that 25% of the oligarchs mechanizations were planned but the remaining 75% were simple reactions to the unforeseen circumstances that arise from those plans?

Game theory, after all, is based on if/or models that suppose rational human behavior. Given what we know about the accuracy of past modeling experiments and the rationality of human reactions, particularly humans under stress, I think it might be optimistic to assume a positive and controllable outcome.

What if these cocksuckers have no idea what will happen next and are just winging it?

What if our future looks like that video of the chimp with a loaded automatic AK-47?

I might have to go put some Irish in my coffee.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 11:31 | 5618257 Charming Anarchist
Charming Anarchist's picture

That is not such a scary thought at all.  I think it is most plausible. 

Regardless, oligarchs are likely at war amongst themselves.  From our perspective, their actions may be objectively no different than winging it. 

If there is any shadow of hope to be found in how all of this plays out, I get it from the possibility that oligarchs eat themselves up before they eat us up. 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 12:19 | 5618342 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

'Game theory, after all, is based on if/or models that suppose rational human behavior'

The longer I live the less confidence I have in rational human behaviour, is there less of it around than when I was younger or is old age just creeping up on me, a chimp with an AK47, yeah, not too far off when I think about US Foreign policy over the last 15 years.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 11:04 | 5618221 GreatUncle
GreatUncle's picture

Nah won't be 2015, think at some certain point in the future though. As people we get so fixated with a certain day because the chaos is not knowing definitive dates.

Either Russia / China / Iran succumb to the fiat dollar or they go it alone but they really need kicking to remember the dollar if you use it will undermine any change because that is how they will own you.

"The Fed is essentially a private corporation owned by regional US private banks" ????

Would be better worded "The western central bank is essentially a private corporation owned by regional private banks". So much more accurate and not specific to any western country they are all at it.

If anybody knows the answer derivatives = fiat rehypothecation of physical material.

So what is the ratio of oil derivatives to actual real oil that has been extracted.

If as I suspect backed by a global fiat currency along the lines of Libor / FX rigging that NOBODY GOT ARRESTED FOR the fiat derivative component is manipulated to change the physical oil market price. You lose nothing neither, expect brown paper wallet of freshly created dollars to replace what you lost.

THAT IS THE POWER OF FIAT NOT BACKED BY ANYTHING REAL AND MANIPULATED BEHIND CLOSED DOORS TO KEEP YOU IN YOUR PLACE SERFS.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 11:10 | 5618235 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

I don't really know what is driving thought in Russia and China, not to mention Iran or the EU or anyplace else.

What I see in the US however scares the hell out of me.  I see that we have a national cultural mythology that hasn't correlated to reality in a long time, and is finally so divergent that a growing number of people are no longer accepting of it.  When that growing number reaches a critical mass, we have a huge problem, because our system is mostly built on voluntary compliance and "full faith and credit."

The Elites are clearly aware of this, and their actions reflect it.  This is why the gulf between official actions and official words has grown so huge that the cognitive dissonance is nearly intolerably painful for most Americans.  They either tune out what they can't reconcile, become cynical, or ignore everything outside their immediate daily purview.

Meanwhile, US policy makes no damn sense according to its stated objectives and justifications.  To make any sense of it, one has to ignore the verbiage and try to examine the actions as if done by "Nation X," to get one's preconceived notions out of the way.  It's not easy to do.

Very briefly, I see that a large portion of the world now uses the American debt-based finance system.  This requires infinite inputs of money, energy, resources, and infinite markets.  They have to be infinite, because growth has to be infinite, because all our "money" is in fact debt at interest.  If growth ever stops, the interest is unpayable and the whole thing collapses.

Unfortunately we live in a finite world.  We've found all the continents we're going to find, we've sold a refrigerator to everyone who can buy one  and has electricity to hook it up to.  Antarctica and the bottoms of the oceans are unreachable due to Energy Returned On Energy Invested calculations.  So to keep the balls in the air until we come up with another system, we've made money infinite by making it abstract, as that's the only necessary input we can do that with.  That is not without its consequences however, as we see all around us.

Our current crop of Elites is unequal to the task. Our system has been developing conventional linear thinkers who are conditioned to seek the approval of authority figures.  Many of them are very intelligent, but that might actually make them less adaptible than the dummies.  The intelligence has been put to use in pursuit of the true goal of our intellectual system, which is to curry favor with authority rather than some abstract quest for truth and knowledge.

When you look at the current US Administration, you see the most intelligent and capable people our system can create.  They really are that; they're not dumb or useless at all.  It's just that their true goals can never be their stated goals, because our national cultural mythology is so divergent from reality that the circle can no longer be pretended to be squared.  When you can't ever cross the Finance Sector, for just one example, there's no way to address what ails the US Health Care finance system.  US Health Care is great.  The Finance aspects of it are hopelessly corrupted and broken.  So when we have a Health Care crisis, what we get is bailouts for Finance.  It's like prescribing aspirin for brain cancer, because someone with brain cancer has a headache.

These conventional thinkers have too many variables to contend with.  It's too much to keep straight.  They have to assume everyone in the world wants what their idea of a US citizen would want, so they strategize accordingly.  Except, not everyone is a US Elite-trained conventional linear thinker.  What if Russia and China are willing to withdraw from the US-developed global Finance system and do something else?  That's not a concept that can even be processed in Official Washington.  The EU is completely screwed by their own doing.  They've cozied up to the Imperium, and are now faced with the very real catastrophe that the dominant paradigm of US cultural mythology has absolutely no application for Europe.  In fact, US categorical imperatives completely contradict basic EU survival needs.

The one thing that cuts through all mythologies is war.  As the perverse fascinations of the Brzezinski/Kissinger/Wolfowitz worldview mixed with the onrushing collapse of the debt-based corporate finance capitalism combine to tear apart the system based on the US cultural mythology, total warfare is all that remains.  Either that or the critical mass of Americans simply one day decides not to show up.  That would be the much better outcome, but that has to happen on its own.  

The Brzezinski/Kissinger/Wolfowitz worldview has led the US to attempt to subvert all potential rivals to US Imperium.  That's why we've surrounded Russia and China with smoldering dumpster fires in nations atop deposits of strategic resources or the trade routes those resources have to traverse.  That's why we try to keep the EU dependent on energy streams easily controlled by US military power.  However, the potential rivals to US power have the "inside lines" advantage of geography.  From China to the Azores, and potentially to the Cape of Good Hope, no trade has to be exposed to US military power necessarily.  The US knows this, which is why we are bleeding our economy dry to maintain a global strike-anywhere military machine.

Time is running out on the US Elites and they know it.  Unfortunately for us in the US, our Elites are completely confined in the mental constructs their authority figures have constructed for them.  The rest of the world doesn't care about the approval of US academic "gray eminences."  However this turns out, current US reality cannot continue for long.  That's tough beans for us, because it's been pretty nice being a US citizen, beneficiary of global Empire.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 11:57 | 5618301 EternalAnusocracy
EternalAnusocracy's picture

Well put. The U.S. however still holds many of the trump cards in the current global order. Short of a new global order, I think US hegemony continues for the foreseeable future.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 12:16 | 5618334 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

yes 'eternal' but 'swmnguys' response was almost an article in itself, big thumbs up. 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 12:26 | 5618369 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Yeah, I get long-winded.  But I need to try on some of the ideas swirling around in my head, and you guys are great for that.  Sorry if I abuse your patience.  I do appreciate it and it does mean a lot to me.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:31 | 5618498 a common man
a common man's picture

It cracks me up when some new poster comes here and complains about the quality of the Articles. I come here to read the comments of the Posters; The informative comments like yours is what really makes ZH what it is.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 17:09 | 5618983 silentsock
silentsock's picture

Hell. I thought your post was better than the original article. lol

You should be a contributor here.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 00:32 | 5619895 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Thanks!  I need to have a few more ideas though.  It wasn't ever my intent, but the weird circumstances we live in are forcing me to develop a Unified Theory Of Everything.  Otherwise I can't make heads or tails of anything.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 10:27 | 5620394 techstrategy
techstrategy's picture

Most everything we do is cover for the original sin -- fractional reserve banking.  It does unify everything.  It inherently tends toward a financial asset ponzi.  Because debt is a senior claimant and because of interest rate spreads,  it has created distributionally driven demand destruction (even beyond their encouragement of outsourcing all manufacturing to China which gutted our middle class).

 

No nation can win a war with another major power without the support of the people.   The Neocons badly miscalculated.   When you constantly support the banks at the expense of the people,  you lose their support.  When you lie to them incessantly in the greatest confidence game ever,  you lose their trust.   The financial system is experiencing a wholesale collapse of trust. 

 

There's 1 and only 1 semi stable path out of this mess.   Real assets and financial assets will come back into balance.   Gold will go parabolic to reliquify the system.   

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 11:19 | 5618242 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Exciting!  Beats the hell out of the ice cream social days lmao.  Hell we could be the next 'sheet of glass' on the"ancient wonders" show in a million years.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 11:57 | 5618299 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Depression Glass..,.You know...That which was doped with Uranium???

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 18:52 | 5619212 mt paul
mt paul's picture

fumed with stannous chloride too

 

glassblowers didn't live long then ...

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 11:57 | 5618300 reader2010
reader2010's picture

The billionaires who need to make the rest of the world's population their slaves fight those billionaires of the rest of the world who said fuck off. 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 12:08 | 5618322 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Know when the the U.S. will be ready to declare all out war on Russia?...

In addition to a joint Russian/China running it's own version of SWIFT for payments... What will send the Anglo-American establishment into orbit will be the unfinshed business of a central bank charter that works for the Russian Federation and not other foreign central banks!

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 12:17 | 5618339 objectivist
objectivist's picture

I take issue with this part:  "Moscow’s key mistake was to allow Russia's domestic industry to be financed by external, dollar-denominated debt."

 

What choice did Moscow have?  If they denominated debt in rubles then most investors would not have bought the bonds, or would have demanded much higher interest rates.  Russia wanted the low interest rates, but wanted it denominated in Rubles to permit it to be devalued on a whim.  You can't have your cake and eat it too.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 12:27 | 5618365 localizer
localizer's picture

Good analysis by Pepe. Now I am just wondering regarding this point:

moratorium on debt and interest, affecting over $600 billion

I think if the pressure continues to pile up on Russia this is exactly what they should do - not a default, but exactly this a "moratorium" since that would actually be totally justified under what can certainly be construed as force majeure circumstances.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 12:32 | 5618380 Anunnaki
Anunnaki's picture

History does repeat

The next bubble bursts Fall 2016 to force Too Big toFail Cromnibus bailout. The deal is done, just have to force Cankles (hillary) and Jebula to give it their blessing to prevent another "Depression"

So obvious. Look for the Internet Kill Switch Bill to pass. And the end of Net Neutrality. Game over We the Sheeple

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 13:15 | 5618458 Livermore Legend
Livermore Legend's picture

".....You can buy Pepe Escobar’s latest book "Empire of Chaos"...."

Toilet Paper would be a much more beneficial use of Capital......

One Question and its Answer brings an End to the Discussion:

What is more vital to its Entire Economy, China's Economic Relationship with the United States or Russia ?

You See, End of Discussion......

For those who do not Know, or have not been Enlightened, the Old Saw:

"Nations don't have Friends; Only Interests"........

Every Matter of Note Revolves Around that Principle...... 

 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:11 | 5618581 Max Steel
Max Steel's picture

Empire of chaos can't  commit its warcrimes and imperialistic actions all over the world . A fact which you should learn . It's better for us to mend its ways and start being real instead of believing in the state of exceptionalism  Gun boat diplomacy not going to work .

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:16 | 5618593 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Commodity back currencies and economies are not sustainable. Manufacturing-based a little better. Knowledge-based plus manufacturing based even more so. What we need is not a return to commodity-backed currency, but currency backed by the rule of law against manipulation, leverage and high debt. Only then will we be putting the cards on the table and addressing the real problems.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:16 | 5618596 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I predict there will be a large,negative financial Event in Europe in 2015. Any cooperation between China/Russia/Iran is more than 12 months in the making that will have any effect on the world stage. Iraq is a G.Dubya gift that will keep on giving until we give up like Viet Nam. By looking at the low number of US troops and equipment Obama has sent to counter Putin I predict there will be no US/Russia war in Ukraine until the next President.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:18 | 5618598 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

What a joke- The Russians have to change their culture to do that...

It just anint easy to do it...

Lets see, stop all caorruption, stop rampant drug us, not to mention most a bing drinking vodka...

Yup I bet their reverse engeneered vehicals would be in huge demand....

It is going to take along time for this transistion to take place and in the mean time they will struggle along....

Come on down arrows from all you putin loving freedom fighters...

If that aint an oxymoron i do not know what is...

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:30 | 5618630 amadeus39
amadeus39's picture

all of them.

 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 14:53 | 5618667 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

"Moscow’s key mistake was to allow Russia's domestic industry to be financed by external, dollar-denominated debt. Talk about a monster debt trap  which can be easily manipulated by the West."

I always try and keep up with Pepe's writings, because he usually looks in the right corners. Moscow indeed has one great weakness, and Pepe just pointed this out. This is a problem, and the horses are out of the barn. As for the future, I suggest Putin do most of the things Pepe suggests.

What we don't know, and can't know, is what Obama and the Washington Zionist Neocons have planned for the Spring of 2015. The Kiev government now has non-citizens taking over top government posts. In the military realm, it is likley the Pentagon has set up a mini Pentagon in Kiev, and jointly with NATO, are now in full control of the Ukrainian Army. I expect Kiev handed over control after their disasterous offensive last summer. IN which the entire elite Air Borne Battlions, the only functioning troops Kiev had, were thrown away in an attempt to encircle Donbass and close the borders to Russia. Fighting heavily outnumbered and totally outgunned, the rebels adopted a flexible defense, avoided pitched battles and static defense positions, they lured the Kiev Amry into encirclements and then chopped them up using captured Mobile GRAD multiple rocket launchers. They also met the Nazi Battlions on the northern front, halted their advance, then launched a counter attack using freshly trained volunteers to take both flanks of the Nazis. In the retreat from this defeat, over a 1,000 Nazis were killed, and all equipment was destroyed or captured. The rebels then launched an offensive against a defeated Ukrainian Army, at that exact moment, Kiev and America begged for a ceasefire. Russia stepped in an Putin order rebels to stop fighting, or lose all support from Russia. SO today we have static fighting under this false ceasefire.

NATO has ordered a build up and rearming of the Nazis and the regular Kiev Amry. These forces are growing into a huge army on the outskirts of Donetsk. NATO could order an assault at any time, but Spring is more likley, as America can rearm Kiev better over the next 4 months. Then, Spring 2015 could see a major war break out. Russia will not sit silent when the offensive begins. Rebels will lkely sport modern weapons supplied by Russia. But look for a major war in the April to May range.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 16:16 | 5618880 windcatcher
windcatcher's picture

In reply to Jack Burton: We have been at war, financed by debt to the banksters, for the last 13 years: Trillions in debt for war and nothing to show for it but destruction and death of innocent people.

Speaking of moar war, the fascist bankster puppet Congress during the “Christmas session” passed a war with Russia recommendation based on contrived evidence of Russian aggression on the Ukrainian border, (remember the phony news reels of tanks crossing the border) then the puppet Congress, passed another war resolution to escalate that war against Russia in the Ukraine: The Ukrainian Freedom Support Act of 2014 financed by more debt to the banksters.

Obama has signed the bill into LAW and made the declaration for war evident in section 6 of the new war LAW. Meanwhile, during the same time frame, China and Russia signed a defense pact so the surprise element to the Ukrainian attack is gone.

Washington has already admitted to spending 20 billion (in borrowed debt to the banksters) in the small country of Ukraine (about 45 million people) to formulate rebellion and chaos. Demonstrators were paid a month wage to protest for one day.

We know EVIL when we see the tools in their tool bag that they use to accomplish their goals. Americans are due for a harsh reality of governance by fascist and their methods of totalitarian secrecy, market control, DOJ control, Congress control, brainwashing, torture, militarization, mass murder, extortion, bribery and terrorism: A new Evil Empire by Chaos and the destruction of the old. Corporate fascist hate all social services other than slavery.

It will take an army to bring the fascist to Justice and we do not have an army. We will not have an army until citizens miss three meals in a row and then they become a revolutionary overnight: we have to grow an army.

 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 15:08 | 5618717 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

duplicate. :(

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 15:08 | 5618718 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

This in brief sums up the continuity of the war on Russia. You have to realize, the Washington DC Neoconserative Zionists decided long before Ukraine to go to war with Russia. It really was a case of starting the war small, and as the Nocons failed to gain victory, they have upped the stakes each year. Till we find ourselves in Jan 2015 on the very brink of a massive war in East Ukraine, a proxy war in which NATO directly launches a military attack and ethnic cleansing assualt against ethnic Russians, living on land that is Russian and has been for centuries, using proxies. Donbass has never ever been Ukrainian in the sense of West Ukrainian, it has always been Russian through it's population, though communists though Donbass should be administered through Kiev. WHat else did communists get wrong eh?

 

"The Ukrainian crisis has become a logical continuation of the Syrian and Libyan crises, which began in 2011 and continued until now, and the Georgian crisis of 2008. All of these crises were stages of coordinated U.S. attack on Russia.
Actually the last six years, we are dealing with a global confrontation between Moscow and Washington, which entered an open phase in 2008 on the initiative of the USA and since then, developing incrementally. In these sequence the year 2014 became pivotal. Having suffered defeat in Georgia, stalled in the Middle East and North Africa, the USA attempted with one blow to turn the tide in their favor in Ukraine. With this goal an armed coup was organized in Kiev in an attempt to build a Nazi Russophobic state that would become the springboard for anti-Russian actions, and, ultimately lead to the destabilization of Russia and the destruction of its statehood.'

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 15:53 | 5618830 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

You're and your fellow Russkys are deluded. If and when Russia matters again, the USA and its 6.6GHZ geopolitical processor might decide to allocate a few thousands or tens of thousands of cycles per second to Russia. Right now, a few dozen cycles per second is all the USA need to utilize.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 22:39 | 5626447 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

If your beloved Rabbi, Stanley Fischer, the Rhodesian, Israeli, American Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, whose scheme  --  the New Israeli Dollar  --   doesn't work, lfdf, you will be right back at Taco Bell where you started out before you got a job posting here.

Shortly after Fischer joined the Fed a year ago, the dollar began its meteoric rise up to the pinnacle of strong currencies.  Strong because its the denominated currency of America's $18 trillion dollar debt.  And because another $10 trillion were printed into circulation in the last 6 years.  And also because the US is forthcoming about publishing exactly how much was printed.

What is Fischer's scheme that's going to keep you from passing out crunchy burritos again?

IMPORT THY NEIGHBOR

  As the dollar strengthens, it will buy more and more of the exports of our friends in Europe, whose economies are on the stink.  I'm sure you've read about it.

America is about to go on a European shopping spree without leaving home.  We are about to import everything in sight that Europe produces and sell them in the malls that are still open, on line. Everywhere.

All the money that the US citizen saves when he fills up his car with gas will be flowing to England, Germany and France.

In a matter of months, Europe will be strong again.  And so will the euro and then they'll will resume buying our exports.

At 69 you may be too old to remember the Led Zepplein's Stairway to Heaven, but Stanley Fischer's scheme is exactly what they had in mind.

It's so simple, lfdf, I'm surprised you didn't think of it.

 

There's a lady who's sure all that glitters is gold
And she's buying a stairway to heaven.
When she gets there she knows, if the stores are all closed
With a word she can get what she came for.
Ooh, ooh, and she's buying a stairway to heaven.


Wed, 01/07/2015 - 02:45 | 5631450 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

Good post. No, I remember Led Zeppelin.

A little anecdote. A couple of decades ago, I worked in Vancouver BC, but lived in the states. Commuted every day. As one of many radio stations, I listened to classical music on the CBC. Once a year, I think, they did a show with nothing but renditions of Stairway to Heaven played by classical music orchestras from around the world. It was awesome. I got lucky and chanced upon it twice. It was fucking amazing how each rendition (or orchestration) was so golden. The last "and she's buying a stairway to heaven", as you might imagine, shook the soul, mind, and heart to the core.

 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 15:29 | 5618765 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

Sorry for being so late to the party.

No pink or red fonts. Fuck. Pink so befits Russia.

Linked from that great conservative blogger Instapundit is an article on Armed and Dangerous entitled Gramscian damage. While almost 8 years old, it is relevant to the issue of Russia. A prime excerpt:

In a previous post on Suicidalism, I identified some of the most important of the Soviet Union’s (propaganda) memetic weapons. Here is that list again:

  • There is no truth, only competing agendas.
  • All Western (and especially American) claims to moral superiority over Communism/Fascism/Islam are vitiated by the West’s history of racism and colonialism.
  • There are no objective standards by which we may judge one culture to be better than another. Anyone who claims that there are such standards is an evil oppressor.
  • The prosperity of the West is built on ruthless exploitation of the Third World; therefore Westerners actually deserve to be impoverished and miserable.
  • Crime is the fault of society, not the individual criminal. Poor criminals are entitled to what they take. Submitting to criminal predation is more virtuous than resisting it.
  • The poor are victims. Criminals are victims. And only victims are virtuous. Therefore only the poor and criminals are virtuous. (Rich people can borrow some virtue by identifying with poor people and criminals.)
  • For a virtuous person, violence and war are never justified. It is always better to be a victim than to fight, or even to defend oneself. But ‘oppressed’ people are allowed to use violence anyway; they are merely reflecting the evil of their oppressors.
  • When confronted with terror, the only moral course for a Westerner is to apologize for past sins, understand the terrorist’s point of view, and make concessions.

Yes, Soviet propaganda was all that and more, but my point is that the Progressive Left in this country grabbed the torch from the USSR, and now are much more effective propaganizers than anything impotent Putin's impotent Russia can spew. In that sense, you Russkys should celebrate. The USSR did have a major success, in that the prevailing American culture is, to a very large extent, "Soviet-ized".

Now, I know you Russkys believe that the USA spews rightist propaganda, but anyone who believes that is a dumb, ignorant asshole. The culture of the USA is Progressive-nee-Marxist. Hollywood, our colleges and universities, and the MSM are somewhere between communist sympathizers and communist supporters.

Note 'communist' with a small 'c'. But, Hollywood, the MSM, and college and universities are much more attuned to the ethos of Khrushchev's Russia than with Reagan's USA.

We conservatives continue to fight the battle to purge our culture of this leftist drek. We're not being very successful. Radical Progressivism is still ascendant, and somehow seems to be increasingly ascendant, but I think the second derivative of their impact is negative.

Anyway, you should be proud, you Russkys. We no longer fight the Cold War with Russia, but with Hollywood, the MSM, and our colleges and universities. You're gone, but not forgotten.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 16:35 | 5618916 windcatcher
windcatcher's picture

Your PROPAGANDA is second rate bullshit that is not even entertaining because it is so stupid. Ha. Ha. Ha.

No one pays me to write but someone pays you to regurgitate their puke. Ha. Ha. Ha.

You have US Chamber of Commerce written all over you, dumb ass. Ha. Ha. Ha.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 22:22 | 5619627 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

Who knows in which media environment you're immersed. Based upon this Russky article which attracts Russkys, I would guess Russia's. If so, no wonder why you're incapable of understanding what my post is: Acute observations on objective truth.

Anyone immersed in the USA's media environment would concur with my major point: Any propaganda being spewed in the USA is that of the predominant USA culture, which is Progressive; aka, radical left. This predominant culture, consisting of the MSM, Hollywood and the entertainment industry, and educational institutions is leftist.

You can disagree, but those are the facts.

For example, Oliver Stone, mainstream Hollywood, is planning on making a movie contending that the CIA involvement in the Ukraine led to the current Russia-v-Ukraine brouhaha. So, in this sense, Hollywood concurs with Russian propaganda about Russia-v-Ukraine. You see how simple it is?

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 00:34 | 5619901 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

lfdf

You see how simple it is

The only simple thing I see is your inability to reason and argue.

If, on January 3, 2015 you can post a comment that the MSM is NOT behind Ukraine and FOR Russia in the Battle of Donbas, either you don't read the WSJ, NYT, WaPo, Reuters, BBC, Independent, Telegraph, etc., or you are the biggest eruption of bullshit since "the explosion of Mount Tambora.

The largest eruption ever recorded by humans, ranking a 7 (or "super-colossal") on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, the second-highest rating in the index. 

The eruption reached its peak in April 1815, when it exploded so loudly that it was heard on Sumatra Island, more than 1,200 miles (1,930 km) away."

Thanks to the internet, your explosion of bullshit will be heard even farther away than Mount Tambora's.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 02:49 | 5620075 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

Learn to read. Review my 2 posts which you criticized, and excerpt where I said anything about the MSM involvement in the specific brouhaha of Russia-v-Ukraine. Yea, I mentioned Oliver Stone in reference to his potential movie about the alleged CIA involvement in Ukraine, but Oliver Stone is Hollywood, not MSM.

Yes, dolt, my point was a general one, about which side's propaganda dominates USA culture. Ergo, your criticism is invalid since it's based upon a straw man.

btw, I'm glad you stopped the gay flirting bit. You do it again, and nomomofo (Translated: No more, mother-fucker). Capiche?

A little personal background. I essentially retired in 1995. Since then, I've indulged in my hobby: Politics on the Web. While I didn't become heavily involved until the Gingrich Revolution, I've been posting on political Web sites since about 1992.

My wife is essentially bedridden, and has been for over a decade. I can indulge myself because I can't go anywhere.

So, every day, I access the Web. Currently, there are about 30 to 40 Web sites that I peruse daily. I've missed perhaps one day in 20 to 30, being rarely away from home.

Over the years, the mix of Web sites I peruse has changed, but the ones I access are mature and reasoned ones, not looney extremist. For example, I refuse to peruse WND, the Free Republic, NewsMax, Glenn Beck, and others of that ilk. As most long-time true conservatives do, I leave extremism to the left. They're very good at it.

Many of the sites I access (eg, RealClearPolitics, HotAir, Powerline, Daily Caller, and many others) have links to other articles or sites. As a result, I read/peruse/skim from many dozens to hundreds of articles every day about politics. I admit, it's pretty fucking shameful, but I spend 2 to 10 hours every day on the Web.

So, how much time has my hobby 'cost' me these past 20 years? Probably somewhere in excess of 25,000 man-hours. And how many posts have a written? Thousands, at least, if not more than ten thousand.

A lot of the time, (particularly, say, when I'm posting on Zerohedge), I find I need to do research on a particular topic or issue. The Russia-v-Ukraine brouhaha was one such. I do a lot of research. Becoming and staying informed is hard work.

OK, so now you know. I'm the equivalent of a very experienced political operative. You can doubt me all you want. Doesn't matter, but I have a black belt in politics with oak leave clusters.

Now, regarding the 7 news sources you mentioned. As a survival trait, any political operative must learn the political bias of individuals or organzations. Of your 7 sources: 3 are far left (NYT, Reuters, BBC), 2 are center-left (WaPo, Independent), one is right (Telegraph), and one is conservative on their editorial page but leftist on the news pages (WSJ). I may be somewhat mistaken on the 2 UK newspapers (ie, I used to read them a lot more in the past; currently, not so much. Dunno why not), but it doesn't matter.

Why not? If the NYT, BBC, or Reuters "takes the side" of the Ukraine versus Russia, you can believe that what they report is fact, not propaganda.

I just searched articles from NYT, Reuters, and the BBC re the crises. and they all essentially took Ukraine's side.

Let me reiterate: These 3 organizations are heavily biased left. Their predisposition would be to support Russia if they at all could. But, they didn't.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 16:12 | 5621129 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

lfdf

Deception thy name is internet

Here's a few paragraphs of your post of Sun @ 1:49:

"Any propaganda being spewed in the USA is that of the predominant USA culture, which is Progressive; aka, radical left. This predominant culture, consisting of the MSM, Hollywood and the entertainment industry, and educational institutions is leftist."

 

"Why not? If the NYT, BBC, or Reuters "takes the side" of the Ukraine versus Russia, you can believe that what they report is fact, not propaganda."

"I just searched articles from NYT, Reuters, and the BBC re the crises. and they all essentially took Ukraine's side."

"Yea, I mentioned Oliver Stone in reference to his potential movie about the alleged CIA involvement in Ukraine, but Oliver Stone is Hollywood, not MSM."

First, the MSM propaganda is not just the plethora of stories every day about how 'legit' the Ukrainians are, including swoboda and pravy sektor. How it is always the separatists who break the Minsk truce and never the Ukrainians.  How the Russians have invaded Ukraine several time, but the MSM do not think it necessary to offer any proof except for a statement by Supreme Commander Breedlove. 

How much coverage the MSM gives to the Russian violation of NATO countries' air space and when Sweden, Latvia, Estonia, etc. retract their charges, how little coverage is given to that.

Twice as many people read the MSM I listed EVERY DAY than will ever see Oliver Stone's film.

Finally there is the propaganda of omission.

How many of the claims and refutations made by Russia never even appear in the MSM and are never seen by Americans who only read the American press?

As I said earlier the Internet is Subterfuge and Subterfuge is the Internet.

 

With respect, I have a great deal of sympathy for your bedridden wife and you if she is really such an invalid.  But hearing that, and hearing that you were mugged in Borneo and need $4000 to get home are peas from the same pod.

It is clear to me that many of the important posters at zh, post under a variety of monikers and avatars.  That's fine with me.  It's the way blogging on the internet works.

 I'm glad you stopped the gay flirting bit. 

I came up with the gay flirting bit just to be annoying, anti-Russians like Amerikan Patriot and viedoklis.  Sorry if i got too close to the bone.  :o)

In 2010 I came up with the premise that, the subprime bubble was devised by the government to reduce demand for oil because there is much less in the ground than they have claimed.

 

I posted that at zh in 2012.  By the end of 2014 everyone knew that demand for oil is greatly reduced.

Link me to anything on a global scale you have predicted that has come to pass.   Then I'll say you are black belt in politics.

Till then you're just a huffandpuff.

 

 

 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 21:09 | 5621985 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

I don't predict. In fact, I violently reject predicting.

Here's my take. The Good Lord imbued this Universe with quantum mechanical uncertainty. Therefore, even the Good Lord cannot know its future. Think about it. Any true God would be infinite, eternal, and complete. Result: No novelty. So, the Good Lord created this Universe with quantum mechanical uncertainty at its heart. Thus, the Good Lord experiences novelty as the Universe ages.

Due to my tens of thousands of hours of experience, what I am able to do is almost immediately assess any political situation. Why? Because it gets easier. After a while, patterns repeat. That's good enough for me. I don't want to become an idol revered by the world. I want to know, and discover political truths.

And be able to effectively argue on forums. :)

OK. You asked for it, so you're going to get it. It appears Russia has a fairly substantive case re Crimea and the Ukraine. Much of the Russian propaganda is at least somewhat credible. However, the realities and the facts remain largely obscure.

Russia is paying the penalty for past aggressions. Does Russia deserve those penalties? Yes.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 02:18 | 5622628 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

 

Of course, you don't predict.  Why should you?

Pontificating on fora is your forte.

Russia is paying the penalty for past aggressions. Does Russia deserve those penalties? Yes.

Why that was the zeitgeist Napoleon rode into  Moscow with in 1812.  Remember the penalty Russia paid then.  Russia had to burn down Moscow as not to give succor to the Grande Armee.

And then there was the penalty France paid on when she tried to return to the status quo ante.

After a while, patterns repeat. That's good enough for me. 

I'm sure the patterns of the War of 1812 and WWII is exactly what Vladimir V. Putin would like to see.  I'm sure he will be thrilled to learn livefree validates his expectation.

Touche, livefree, another brilliant point.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 03:50 | 5622740 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

Pontificating on fora is your forte.

Sure is. Just as I've earned my white privilege, I've earned my right to comment eruditely and perspicaciouly on many topics.

Of course, you don't predict. Why should you?

I know my limits.

I'm sure the patterns of the War of 1812 and WWII is exactly what Vladimir V. Putin would like to see. I'm sure he will be thrilled to learn livefree validates his expectation.

Your Russky propaganda contends that the US wants war with Russia. Fuck, no, we don't. Even when commie lover Obama is replaced by a conservative Republican President in 2017, war with Russia will be off the table. It would be stupid for the US to war with Russia. Russia is destroying itself just fine on its own.

The major reason Putin maintains his popularity is the Russian people's support for his confrontations with the West. Putin must be bellicose and belligerent. He has nothing else to offer. Domestically, Russia is a basket case. Putin needs at least the threat of war.

What the USA wants is what the USA is getting: An increasingly irrelevant Russia.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 04:20 | 5622767 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

lfdf

Pontificate

express one's opinions in a way considered annoyingly pompous and dogmatic

You're prolly a nicer human bean when you post comments under some of your other monikers.  No? 

 

 

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 13:56 | 5624366 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

I post only as lfdf.

The USA left believes the end justifies the means. The left will do or say anything to advance their cause. To them, war is total war, no quarter given. They believe their cause embodies the ultimate morality, blessing them to do whatever they need to do to achieve their goal.

An objective review of Obama's 6 years proves my case. If the fed'l gov't were sued in criminal court under the RICO statute, Obama's gov't would be found guilty of being an ongoing criminal organization.

Forget the Mafia. Obama is the ultimate Allahfather.

So, bid, are you a soldier? If you are, instead of calling me 'pompous' and 'dogmatic', how about 'militaristic'? I approach politics as war by other means. No namby-pamby, halfway measures for me.

If people don't like it (and they don't based upon the number of downvotes I get; so far, my best is 0 up and 17 down), fuck em. I tell it like it is. Reality is and facts are.

God was becoming increasingly angry with Something. Try as He might, God could not get Something to compromise with Nothing. "Why are you so dogmatic, Something?", God asked. "Life is compromise. Existence is compromise. Nothing is your brother, birthed the same time I created you. Join with Nothing, your brother. Together, you 2 will be greater together than separately". Something responded, "OK, God. I will". Something met Nothing half way. Unfortunately, what Something only vaguely subconsciously suspected was true: When you compromise with Nothing, you become Nothing. Nothing is so powerful that any attempt to meet Nothing half-way results in your perdition. "Damn it", God said, "Another failure. Let me think. How in the hell can I create a Something who consciously realizes that compromise is anathema, and that fierce and unyielding dogmatism is the only way to survive." To this day, God still thinks.

Mon, 01/05/2015 - 16:16 | 5625077 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

ged outta here

I post only as lfdf.

As if you'd ever admit otherwise.  Or George Bush would admit he knew Saddam didn't have WMD.

In your paragraph about the "ends justifying the means", you may as well have written that with the words conservative neocons for liberal lefties.

My name is there for all who google.  "Bid the soldiers shoot", the last line of Shakespeare's play "Hamlet".

Given by the militaristic Fortinbras, kinda like you.

Glad you mentioned God as it allows me an opportunity to descant.

I don't actually believe in God.  I believe in a creator.  No religion. No books. no treasure maps.  Everyone the young Helen Keller. The creator, Annie Sullivan.

Some thing to do when you run out of comments.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 01:33 | 5625960 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

I post only as lfdf. I don't give a fuck if you don't believe me.

Saddam not only had WMD, he used them. To date, Saddam's WMD attack against the Kurds still holds the record for the greatest number of civilian deaths due to a WMD attack. The way I see it, if Saddam used WMDs, he had WMDs. Seems pretty fucking logical to me.

In your paragraph about the "ends justifying the means", you may as well have written that with the words conservative neocons for liberal lefties.

No, I couldn't have written that because it would have been wrong. Only the radical left practices situational ethics. The right's morality is based upon religion, the left upon nothing but winning.

I don't actually believe in God.

Which is why you can't understand why the right eschews situational ethics. Your lack of understanding is not a matter of ignorance, but of capability. Since you don't believe in God, you are incapable of understanding the right's morality.

See comment below ...

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 03:19 | 5627019 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

I cerainly don't give a fuck about you not giving a fuck.  That goes without saying.

No doubt that chemical weapons are WMD.  The problem is that they were given to Saddam by Ronald Reagan along with satellite pictures of the Iranian Army's position until the end of the war. And by the time the war ended Reagan, Poindexter and North were selling weapons to Iran and telling Iraq where to explode their gas weapons over the Iranian army.

Very moral. Very honorable. Very conservative.

Which is why you can't understand why the right eschews situational ethics.

WRONG. There are ethics and there are no ethics. Black and white.  Nothing in between.

That is the fucking Israeli modus operandi. It's okay to slaughter children because when they grow up, they'll fight us.

That's nigger shit.  If that's what you believe, you're pathetic.  I'm surprised you'd even admit it.

Oh, I believe in God, but not that make-believe, lowest common denominator found in the old and new testament.  You really believe the earth is 4000 years old?  Interesting.

The creator I believe in is almost the same as the God you believe in.  Except he doesn't have a son, an address where you're invited to go when you die, a throne, a bevy of saints, etc.  Any depiction of your God is a violation of the second commandment.  So you better get rid of your bobblehead dashboard Jesus before you drive into a sinkhole.

Conservatives don't believe that the ends justify the means.  

So the invasion of Iraq and the slaughter of it people was not the means achieve the ends of killing Saddam, selling Haliburton oil field equipment, and putting foreign oil producers in charge of pumping up as much oil as possible, as quickly as they could before the first 'Peak Oil' scare.

Oh, you don't have to patronize me by saying I'm not ignorant, only incapable.  As if what you think of me, means anything to me at all.  I assume you feel the same way.

That's what internet commenting is all about, nicht wahr?

Wed, 01/07/2015 - 02:57 | 5631463 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

Fuck, man. Powerful comeback.

WRONG. There are ethics and there are no ethics. Black and white. Nothing in between.

Yea. Situational ethics is no ethics. Ethics is what a person does when he's alone.

Oh, you don't have to patronize me by saying I'm not ignorant, only incapable.

OK, so you do believe in a creator, or some kind of God. Good. You are capable. I tend to agree with those who maintain that there can be no morality or ethics without God.

Interesting about Saddam. During the UN inspection regime, inspectors could find no WMD. I asked myself "Why not?". The only answer I could come up with is that Iraq destroyed their WMD. "Why would they do that, though?", I asked myself. Couldn't answer that question.

An appendix of the2006 or so Senate intelligence report on WMD in Iraq answered the question. It said that Saddam was amazed at how good the UN inspection regimen was, and, because it was so good, he ordered Iraq's WMDs destroyed. The report also said that it was common understanding among Saddam's top lieutenants (said lieutenants having been interviewed by US forces) that, as soon as the UN sanctions were lifted, Saddam planned to reconstitute Iraq's WMD program.

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 00:07 | 5619841 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

lfdf

We conservatives continue to fight the battle to purge our culture of this leftist drek.

When you say "we conservatives' to whom do refer beside Bibi Netanyahu and his rock throwing Likudniks, Irving Kristol and son Bill, Norman Podhoretz, Robert Kagan and his shrewish wife, Victoria Nudleman ?

Who gives a fuck about conservatives except other mindless conservatives like you?

 

Next time you feel you're staying too long at the party, do us a favor and stay longer. 

Open another beer, pop another Viagra and pray to Ronald Reagan, standing at the right hand of God,  that you finally get lucky after all these months.   

 

Sun, 01/04/2015 - 03:29 | 5620078 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

You gotta learn to trash-talk better.

Interesting, though, how your postures are all over the map. I suppose you could be trying to demonstrate your multi-dimensionality. Or mocking me, the viciously anti-Russky, for your Russky friends. Or just being yourself. Whatever.

You, however, are akin to Russia in one sense: I've concluded you, like Russia, are 3rd or 4th rate.

Makes sense. I am an American, born in the greatest country that's even existed on the face of the earth. I, therefore, am great because the USA is great. You suck because Russia sucks.

Me, great. You, 4th rate. Yep. That about wraps it up.

 

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 15:37 | 5618798 Imagery
Imagery's picture

ABSOLUTELY.  The Quality of the COMMENTERS on ZH far surpass that of the content provided.  NOT dissing the content, just offering the well-deserved, and important recognition due, the commenters.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 15:51 | 5618820 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Generally an interesting read but Russia will be able to easily reverse any technology? Utter and complete nonsense especially with their current industrial base and the way global supply chains are set up. Like the same jerkoffs at BCG or McKinsey who has pushed this BS since 2010 in a big way in the US about manufacturing plants rebounding & surging as if it is as simple and opening a McDonald's or a warehouse.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 16:17 | 5618878 MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

This is all about a question of who loses less and how quickly. Simply way too many people to live anywhere close to a Western level of consumption.

Just look at the quality and price of just about any commodity and good stuff. Yeah the price of traded commodities have see sawed but I am talking about the actual price vs quality of the good. Quality of ore in just about any mined mineral, increased food production on very marginal lands and the lack of any real increased productivity despite the promise of gmo, global seafood stocks, etc.

Yeah technology buys us a bit of time here and there (see frackibg) but it isn't nearly enough to keep up with the demands of billions who the past 20 years are no longer under the yoke of communist economic systems run almost exclusively by the state including ownership.

globally living standards are improving but it is only because the starting levels were so low. Not hard to improve when they were at slightly above sustinence levels for so many. What appears to be happening is that labor can't effectively counter capital in any country and that we are headed to a globe where in countries you have maybe 5-20% who legimateky well off with the rest staring on the outside looking in as they can't counter wealth and the state is weakened and or enthralled almost completely by the wealthy. There are some differences between the ultra-wealthy and powerful in each country but they also hedges their bets globally by spreading their wealth around and putting their fingers in so many pies.

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 18:47 | 5619194 besnook
besnook's picture

it tickles my gonads to see that the reality of the usa and brits starting ww2 with japan with the oil embargo on japan against all treaties and trade agreements in effect at the time has become mainstream history.

since the 70s i have told anyone who wanted to discuss the pacific war of this declaration of war that precipitated the (preknown) attack on pearl harbor only to be met with derision.

the usa has already lost this war with russia/china but there will be millions of people killed before they will admit it.

Tue, 01/06/2015 - 01:19 | 5626151 livefreediefree
livefreediefree's picture

Cool. "Bid the soldier" is a literary references. I found Shakespeare overwrought. Never much liked poetry, either. Fuck high culture. Culture is an I5 off-ramp in the California San Joaquin valley, with its attendant fast food places, convenience stores, and gas stations. Any culture beyond that is pretentious prickism.

I'm the ham-handed grandson of Polish peasants. So, sue me.

Feminists have a saying; "The personal is political". If you examine feminist writings, you'll find that that saying is so very true because the words they most often use are "I", "me", "myself", and "my".

All women are self-absorbed narcissists. Feminists take it to the next level, and become malignant narcissists. They elevate every last jot, tittle, and iota that crosses their mind, or courses through their emotions, to the level of Eternal Truths.

This Washington Post column may become an eternal, iconic example of feminism's essence.

Fuck intimacy.

Why this aside into feminism? Because I fucking hate how overwrought-ly narcissistic feminists (and women) are.

OK, students. Let's begin this class on "Lack of Sensitivity" training. When I count to zero, repeat after me, "Fuck you! Suck my dick!". OK, class, 3, 2, 1, 0, "Fuck you! Suck my dick!". Thank you, students. You've just completed the "Lack of Sensitivity" training class.

A little anecdote which occurred during either the Galileo mission to Jupiter, or the Cassini mission to Saturn. NASA had had to hire women. The gov't bureaucracy mandated that, since women make up 50% of the population, women had to make up 50% of NASA scientists. When whichever spacecraft achieved orbit, many female scientists were interviewed. Every single fucking one of them used the word "I", and used it a lot. To them, this magnificent scientific achievement was all about them; ie, first came them, and then came the mission. At worst, only about 50% of the male scientists used the word "I", and then only softly and sparingly.

Here's Ms scientist!!!. "Oh, I think this is so wonderful. I am just so joyous, even overwhelmed. When I was a little girl, laying on my bed at night, looking out at the stars, I would say to myself, 'Oh, it is so wonderful that I am laying here, and thinking of how I relate to the stars, as I am looking at the stars'. Yes, I so remember being a little girl, and how I thought about the stars, and how they related to me." Et puke.

Yes. I fucking hate the personal. QED.

PS: Yea, did the research re Hamlet and Keller. Worth the 90 seconds spent.

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