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What Happens Next In Russia - A 6-Step Recipe For Western Disaster

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Dmitry Orlov via Club Orlov blog,

Recent events, such as the overthrow of the government in Ukraine, the secession of Crimea and its decision to join the Russian Federation, the subsequent military campaign against civilians in Eastern Ukraine, western sanctions against Russia, and, most recently, the attack on the ruble, have caused a certain phase transition to occur within Russian society, which, I believe, is very poorly, if at all, understood in the west. This lack of understanding puts Europe at a significant disadvantage in being able to negotiate an end to this crisis.

Whereas prior to these events the Russians were rather content to consider themselves “just another European country,” they have now remembered that they are a distinct civilization, with different civilizational roots (Byzantium rather than Rome)—one that has been subject to concerted western efforts to destroy it once or twice a century, be it by Sweden, Poland, France, Germany, or some combination of the above. This has conditioned the Russian character in a specific set of ways which, if not adequately understood, is likely to lead to disaster for Europe and the world.

Lest you think that Byzantium is some minor cultural influence on Russia, it is, in fact, rather key. Byzantine cultural influences, which came along with Orthodox Christianity, first through Crimea (the birthplace of Christianity in Russia), then through the Russian capital Kiev (the same Kiev that is now the capital of Ukraine), allowed Russia to leapfrog across a millennium or so of cultural development. Such influences include the opaque and ponderously bureaucratic nature of Russian governance, which the westerners, who love transparency (if only in others) find so unnerving, along with many other things. Russians sometimes like to call Moscow the Third Rome—third after Rome itself and Constantinople—and this is not an entirely empty claim. But this is not to say that Russian civilization is derivative; yes, it has managed to absorb the entire classical heritage, viewed through a distinctly eastern lens, but its vast northern environment has transformed that heritage into something radically different.

Since this subject is of overwhelming complexity, I will focus on just four factors, which I find essential for understanding the transformation we are currently witnessing.

1. Taking offense

Western nations have emerged in an environment of limited resources and relentless population pressure, and this has to a large degree determined the way in which they respond when they are offended. For quite a long time, while centralized authority was weak, conflicts were settled through bloody conflict, and even a minor affront could cause former friends to become instant adversaries and draw their swords. This is because it was an environment in which standing your ground was key to survival.

In contrast, Russia emerged as a nation in an environment of almost infinite, although mostly quite diffuse, resources. It also drew from the bounty of the trade route that led from the Vikings to the Greeks, which was so active that Arab geographers believed that there was a salt-water strait linking the Black Sea with the Baltic, whereas the route consisted of rivers with a considerable amount of portage. In this environment, it was important to avoid conflict, and people who would draw their swords at a single misspoken word were unlikely to do well in it.

Thus, a very different conflict resolution strategy has emerged, which survives to this day. If you insult, aggrieve or otherwise harm a Russian, you are unlikely to get a fight (unless it happens to be a demonstrative beating held in a public setting, or a calculated settling of scores through violence). Instead, more likely than not, the Russian will simply tell you to go to hell, and then refuse to have anything further to do with you. If physical proximity makes this difficult, the Russian will consider relocating, moving in any direction that happens to be away from you. So common is this speech act in practice that it has been abbreviated to a monosyllabic utterance: “????!” (“Pshol!”) and can be referred to simply as “???????” (literally, “to send”). In an environment where there is an almost infinite amount of free land to settle, such a strategy makes perfect sense. Russians live like settled people, but when they have to move, they move like nomads, whose main method of conflict resolution is voluntary relocation.

This response to grievance as something permanent is a major facet of the Russian culture, and westerners who do not understand it are unlikely to achieve an outcome they would like, or even understand. To a westerner, an insult can be resolved by saying something like “I am sorry!” To a Russian that's pretty much just noise, especially if it is being emitted by somebody who has already been told to go to hell. A verbal apology that is not backed up by something tangible is one of these rules of politeness, which to the Russians are something of a luxury. Until a couple of decades ago, the standard Russian apology was “?????????” (“izviniáius'”), which can be translated literally as “I excuse myself.” Russia is now a much more polite country, but the basic cultural pattern remains in place.

Although purely verbal apologies are worthless, restitution is not. Setting things right may involve parting with a prized possession, or making a significant new pledge, or announcing an important change of direction. The point is, these all involve taking pivotal actions, not just words, because beyond a certain point words can only make the situation worse, taking it from the “Go to hell” stage to the even less copacetic “Let me show you the way” stage.

2. Dealing with invaders

Russia has a long history of being invaded from every direction, but especially from the west, and Russian culture has evolved a certain mindset which is difficult for outsiders to comprehend. First of all, it is important to realize that when Russians fight off an invasion (and having the CIA and the US State Department run Ukraine with the help of Ukrainian Nazis qualifies as an invasion) they are not fighting for territory, at least not directly. Rather, they are fighting for Russia as a concept. And the concept states that Russia has been invaded numerous times, but never successfully. In the Russian mindset, invading Russia successfully involves killing just about every Russian, and, as they are fond of saying, “They can't kill us all.” (“??? ???? ?? ??????.”) Population can be restored over time (it was down 22 million at the end of World War II) but the concept, once lost, would be lost forever. It may sound nonsensical to a westerner to hear Russians call their country “a country of princes, poets and saints,” but that's what it is—it is a state of mind. Russia doesn't have a history—it is its history.

Because the Russians fight for the concept of Russia rather than for any given chunk of Russian territory, they are always rather willing to retreat—at first. When Napoleon invaded Russia, fully planning to plunder his way across the countryside, he found the entire countryside torched by the retreating Russians. When he finally occupied Moscow, it too went up in flames. Napoleon camped out for a bit, but eventually, realizing that there was nothing more to be done (attack Siberia?) and that his army would starve and die of exposure if they remained, he beat a hasty and shameful retreat, eventually abandoning his men to their fate. As they retreated, another facet of Russian cultural heritage came to the fore: every peasant from every village that got torched as the Russians retreated was in the forefront as the Russians advanced, itching for a chance to take a pot shot at a French soldier.

Similarly, the German invasion during World War II was at first able to make rapid advances, taking a lot of territory, while the Russians equally swiftly retreated and evacuated their populations, relocating entire factories and other institutions to Siberia and resettling families in the interior of the country. Then the German advance stopped, reversed, and eventually turned into a rout. The standard pattern repeated itself, with the Russian army breaking the invader's will while most of the locals that found themselves under occupation withheld cooperation, organized as partisans and inflicted maximum possible damage on the retreating invader.
 

Another Russian adaptation for dealing with invaders is to rely on the Russian climate to do the job. A standard way of ridding a Russian village house of vermin is simply to not heat it; a few days at 40 below or better and the cockroaches, bedbugs, lice, nits, weevils, mice, rats are all dead. It works with invaders too. Russia is the world's most northern country. Canada is far north, but most of its population is spread along its southern border, and it has no major cities above the Arctic Circle, while Russia has two. Life in Russia in some ways resembles life in outer space or on the open ocean: impossible without life support. The Russian winter is simply not survivable without cooperation from the locals, and so all they have to do to wipe out an invader is withhold cooperation. And if you think that an invader can secure cooperation by shooting a few locals to scare the rest, see above under “Taking offense.”

3. Dealing with foreign powers

Russia owns almost the entire northern portion of the Eurasian continent, which comprises something like 1/6 of the Earth's dry surface. That, by Earth standards, is a lot of territory. This is not an aberration or an accident of history: throughout their history, the Russians were absolutely driven to provide for their collective security by gaining as much territory as possible. If you are wondering what motivated them to undertake such a quest, see “Dealing with invaders” above.

If you think that foreign powers repeatedly attempted to invade and conquer Russia in order to gain access to its vast natural resources, then you are wrong: the access was always there for the asking. The Russians are not exactly known for refusing to sell their natural resources—even to their potential enemies. No, what Russia's enemies wanted was to be able to tap into Russia's resources free of charge. To them, Russia's existence was an inconvenience, which they attempted to eliminate through violence.

What they achieved instead was a higher price for themselves, once their invasion attempt failed. The calculus is simple: the foreigners want Russia's resources; to defend them, Russia needs a strong, centralized state with a big, powerful military; ergo, the foreigners should be made to pay, to support Russia's state and military. Consequently, most of the Russian state's financial needs are addressed through export tariffs, on oil and natural gas especially, rather than by taxing the Russian population. After all, the Russian population is taxed heavily enough by having to fight off periodic invasions; why tax them more? Thus, the Russian state is a customs state: it uses customs duties and tariffs to extract funds from the enemies who would destroy it and use these funds to defend itself. Since there is no replacement for Russia's natural resources, the more hostile the outside world acts toward Russia, the more it will end up paying for Russia's national defense.

Note that this policy is directed at foreign powers, not at foreign-born people. Over the centuries, Russia has absorbed numerous immigrants: from Germany during the 30 years' war; from France after the French revolution. More recent influxes have been from Vietnam, Korea, China and Central Asia. Last year Russia absorbed more immigrants than any other country except for the United States, which is dealing with an influx from countries on its southern border, whose populations its policies have done much to impoverish. Moreover, the Russians are absorbing this major influx, which includes close to a million from war-torn Ukraine, without much complaint. Russia is a nation of immigrants to a greater extent than most others, and is more of a melting pot than the United States.

4. Thanks, but we have our own

One more interesting Russian cultural trait is that Russians have always felt compelled to excel in all categories, from ballet and figure-skating to hockey and football to space flight and microchip manufacturing. You may think of champagne as a trademark French product, but last I checked “????????? ??????????” (“Soviet champagne”) was still selling briskly around New Year's Eve, and not only in Russia but in Russian shops in the US because, you see, the French stuff may be nice, but it just doesn't taste sufficiently Russian. For just about every thing you can imagine there is a Russian version of it, which the Russians often feel is better, and sometimes can claim they invented in the first place (the radio, for instance, was invented by Popov, not by Marconi). There are exceptions (tropical fruit is one example) and they are allowed provided they come from a “brotherly nation” such as Cuba. That was the pattern during the Soviet times, and it appears to be coming back to some extent now.

During the late Brezhnev/Andropov/Gorbachev “stagnation” period Russian innovation indeed stagnated, along with everything else, and Russia lost ground against the west technologically (but not culturally). After the Soviet collapse Russians became eager for western imports, and this was quite normal considering that Russia wasn't producing much of anything at the time. Then, during the 1990s, there came the era of western compradors, who dumped imported products on Russia with the long-term goal of completely wiping out domestic industry and making Russia into a pure raw materials supplier, at which point it would be defenseless against an embargo and easily forced to surrender its sovereignty. This would be an invasion by non-military means, against which Russia would find itself defenseless.

This process ran quite far before it hit a couple of major snags. First, Russian manufacturing and non-hydrocarbon exports rebounded, doubling several times in the course of a decade. The surge included grain exports, weapons, and high-tech. Second, Russia found lots of better, cheaper, friendlier trading partners around the world. Still, Russia's trade with the west, and with the EU specifically, is by no means insignificant. Third, the Russian defense industry has been able to maintain its standards, and its independence from imports. (This can hardly be said about the defense firms in the west, which depend on Russian titanium exports.)

And now there has come the perfect storm for the compradors: the ruble has partially devalued in response to lower oil prices, pricing out imports and helping domestic producers; sanctions have undermined Russia's confidence in the reliability of the west as suppliers; and the conflict over Crimea has boosted the Russians' confidence in their own abilities. The Russian government is seizing this opportunity to champion companies that can quickly effect import replacement for imports from the west. Russia's central bank has been charged with financing them at interest rates that make import replacement even more attractive.

Some people have been drawing comparisons between the period we are in now and the last time oil prices dropped—all the way to $10/barrel—in some measure precipitating the Soviet collapse. But this analogy is false. At the time, the Soviet Union was economically stagnant and dependent on western credit to secure grain imports, without which it wouldn't have been able to raise enough livestock to feed its population. It was led by the feckless and malleable Gorbachev—an appeaser, a capitulator, and a world-class windbag whose wife loved to go shopping in London. The Russian people despised him and referred to him as “Mishka the Marked,” thanks to his birthmark. And now Russia is resurgent, is one of the world's largest grain exporters, and is being led by the defiant and implacable President Putin who enjoys an approval rating of over 80%. In comparing pre-collapse USSR to Russia today, commentators and analysts showcase their ignorance.

Conclusions

This part almost writes itself. It's a recipe for disaster, so I'll write it out as a recipe.

1. Take a nation of people who respond to offense by damning you to hell, and refusing to having anything more to do with you, rather than fighting. Make sure that this is a nation whose natural resources are essential for keeping your lights on and your houses heated, for making your passenger airliners and your jet fighters, and for a great many other things. Keep in mind, a quarter of the light bulbs in the US light up thanks to Russian nuclear fuel, whereas a cut-off of Russian gas to Europe would be a cataclysm of the first order.

 

2. Make them feel that they are being invaded by installing a government that is hostile to them in a territory that they consider part of their historical homeland. The only truly non-Russian part of the Ukraine is Galicia, which parted company many centuries ago and which, most Russians will tell you, “You can take to hell with you.” If you like your neo-Nazis, you can keep your neo-Nazis. Also keep in mind how the Russians deal with invaders: they freeze them out.

 

3. Impose economic and financial sanctions on Russia. Watch in dismay as your exporters start losing money when in instant retaliation Russia blocks your agricultural exports. Keep in mind that this is a country that, thanks to surviving a long string of invasion attempts, traditionally relies on potentially hostile foreign states to finance its defense against them. If they fail to do so, then it will resort to other ways of deterring them, such as freezing them out. “No gas for NATO members” seems like a catchy slogan. Hope and pray that it doesn't catch on in Moscow.

 

4. Mount an attack on their national currency, causing it to lose part of its value on par with a lower price of oil. Watch in dismay as Russian officials laugh all the way to the central bank because the lower ruble has caused state revenues to remain unchanged in spite of lower oil prices, erasing a potential budget deficit. Watch in dismay as your exporters go bankrupt because their exports are priced out of the Russian market. Keep in mind, Russia has no national debt to speak of, runs a negligible budget deficit, has plentiful foreign currency reserves and ample gold reserves. Also keep in mind that your banks have loaned hundreds of billions of dollars to Russian businesses (which you have just deprived of access to your banking system by imposing sanctions). Hope and pray that Russia doesn't put a freeze on debt repayments to western banks until the sanctions are lifted, since that would blow up your banks.

 

5. Watch in dismay as Russia signs major natural gas export deals with everyone except you. Is there going to be enough gas left for you when they are done? Well, it appears that this no longer a concern for the Russians, because you have offended them, and, being who they are, they told you to go to hell (don't forget to take Galicia with you) and will now deal with other, friendlier countries.

 

6. Continue to watch in dismay as Russia actively looks for ways to sever most of the trade links with you, finding suppliers in other parts of the world or organizing production for import replacement.

But now comes a surprise—an underreported one, to say the least. Russia has just offered the EU a deal. If the EU refuses to join the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the US (which, by the way, would hurt it economically) then it can join the Customs Union with Russia. Why freeze yourselves out when we can all freeze out Washington instead? This is the restitution Russia would accept for the EU's offensive behavior with regard to the Ukraine and the sanctions. Coming from a customs state, it is a most generous offer. A lot went into making it: the recognition that the EU poses no military threat to Russia and not much of an economic one either; the fact that the European countries are all very cute and tiny and lovable, and make tasty cheeses and sausages; the understanding that their current crop of national politicians is feckless and beholden to Washington, and that they need a big push in order to understand where their nations' true interests lie... Will the EU accept this offer, or will they accept Galicia as a new member and “freeze out”?

 

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Wed, 01/14/2015 - 04:40 | 5659044 Joe A
Joe A's picture

Seems like if they don't pay back the debt it are the creditors that have a problem. What are they going to do, send the debt collectors? As you say: "They have no access to western banks.". And the western banks have no access to their outstanding credits.

Russians would be hurting but they are used to that, in the West we are not. We've become pussies and that will make us hurt. This article might be full of pro Russia propaganda but the Russians are tough. People in the SU did not care about that system but when you attack 'Mother Russia' then it becomes personal. Putin plays into that.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 01:57 | 5658854 frivolous_spend...
frivolous_spendthrift's picture

I predict 'MeriKa will eventually become self sufficient in chewing gum. Once this has been achieved they can once again return to creating genuine bubbles.

 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 03:01 | 5658897 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

Couple of minor points, apart from laughing hysterically at this exhibition of pseudo-intellectual national mysticism that would make Alfred Rosenberg glow with pride.

First off, one would need to delve into the reasons why Bobby Fischer won and the changes he insisted upon (which were never instituted) after his utterly amazing victory. Suffice it to say that chess was a team sport in the CCCP, not an individual mano-a-mano undertaking. His win was probably the greatest in the history of chess due to the way the rules for the match were set up. One man against a team of grand masters and still he beat them. Fischer was the last of the true individual champions and one who prevailed despite staying up all night trying to plan his moves against a whole team of experts who ran through probabilities while Spassky slept and could arise refreshed and with a full list of suggested options awaiting him when play resumed.

But who the hell ever won a war based on chess anyhow? Poker is the game of generals who do not have the luxury of evenly-balanced forces and a one-move advantage over the opponent.

Secondly, the Dmitster needs to work on his geography book. Russia is not 1/6th of the world's landmass. The Soviet Union was. Russia has seen many of the very best portions of the empire amputated and now only accounts for about 1/8th of the land mass. Much, if not most, of the remaining territory being comprised of uninhabitable wastelands that nobody, not even his nomadic movin-on Russians, want to homestead on. And for those of you playing along at home, that represents about a 25% loss of the territory of the former Empire of Evil.

Third, I'd have more respect for his paean to Russian greatness if he lived someplace other than safe, warm, and (according to him) scenic Massachusetts. I always find myself asking one simple question of expats everywhere: If the homeland is such a great place and offers such fantastic opportunities, why aren't you there instead of here?

Finally, his assertion that the Soviet Union with its worldwide legion of slave colonies, controlled NLF front groups, and captive satellites was weaker than the current shell of a successor state is simply, well, unlikely.

Putin is crowing about regaining a naval base in the freaking Black Sea, which was once an incontestable Soviet lake, and rubbing his hands in glee at the thought of recapturing the burnt out ruins of the rustbelt Donets Basin. So far have they fallen.

Those who once dreamed of hoisting the Red Banner over every nation on earth now obsess over the same sort of paranoid claims of encirclement that brought Germany to grief eventually. Nobody wants Russia-- except maybe the Chinese. And he now finds himself becoming their client and vassal, call him what you will.

And that approaching state of Chinese vassalage, come to think of it, is exactly where Russia got its start in the first place. Way to go, Bay State chess players. 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 03:44 | 5659002 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

There's probably no greater thrill a reader/commenter at ZH can experience than when tarabel (herself?, himself?) takes one of those $25 Smartagra pills and plops down 7 (seven) paragraphs of pure intellect.

Who, in a million years, would have guessed that s/he's the Bob Costas of chess?  That gambits and pawns turning into queens are dancing around in his head like sugar plum fairies in the head of a seven year old girl after seeing the 'Nutcracker' at the Mariinsky at Christmastide?  Not me?  

And chiding the author for stupidly claiming that Russia possessed 1/6th of the earth's land mass when it was actually only 1/8th.  This is why I read ZH because nobody gets away with fuzzy facts here.

And pointing out that that no war was ever won based on chess. tarabel has srudied and picked apart every war since the Battle of Hastings and has come to the conclusion that NONE were won by bishop to knight 4. Don't even think about it.  The only war that wasn't won by playing poker was Napoleon's War of 100 days.  That was won on the playing fields of Eton.

S/he yammers on pointlessly about expats and whether today's Russia is stronger than yesterday's USSR, failing to mention Russias superiority in missile technology, which can only be proved by a war, which poker faced Putin would wipe up the floor with winkin, blinkin and noddy BO.

Finally, dear heart, the Black Sea. Pipelines to be on either side of it and underneath it.  And Crimea sitting in the strategic center of that sea like a bulbous appendage, that tarabel may or may not possess.

Have you ever thought of being objective?  Or is that against the faith of your tribe?

 

 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:28 | 5660927 tired1
tired1's picture

Dont forget that with a freindly Turkey, passage into the Med is assured. Now Russia is a player in the games played by USrael.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 17:19 | 5661891 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

"With a friendly Turkey..."

Remember when Russia was considered " a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma"?

That distinction now belogs to Turkey.

A large, modern Muslim country, straddling Asia and Europe.  A member of NATO, but obdurate and an enemy of Israel. A friend of Russia but sworn foe of Russia's ally,  Assad of Syria.  Charged with keeping the Black Sea peaceful.

"All warships from countries without a coast on the Black Sea operate under the 1936 Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits.

"Montreux rules call for foreign warships to depart the Black Sea after 21 days.

"With a steady rotation of assets, the number of NATO ships in the Black Sea has been up to nine – the highest level in several decades.

I'm not sure that with Turkey "What yo see is what you get."  It may be operating under a special agenda with either the US or Russia.

No doubt Turkey is friendlier with one of the major powers. Figuring out which one is the hard part.

 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 02:38 | 5658922 freedom123
freedom123's picture

Reality about Russia is different than this Putin regime propaganda material ZH has posted.

You have to understand that there isn’t one country as Russia – but it’s Russia Federation. It means it consists of many nations – it’s an empire. And its imperator is Putin. There is no democracy in Russia Federation. And there is no freedom of speech, press, etc. in Russia – or it has been oppressed by each day more and more. And there are no cultural roots any more in Russia – it has been erased by USSR. What they have is about 80% of brainwashed people by Putin regime propaganda channels that are state owned and few people who are not brainwashed but are systematically oppressed. Those people belong to intelligence that doesn’t line up with Putin regime – which are ready to scarify their job but will tell the truth. Those are brave journalists who will scarify not only their job but also their life to tell truth though those few private small media companies that are dying more and more each day. Could you imagine – Putin regime decided to ban commercial advertisement in private TV companies. Putin regime is doing everything he can to destroy any alternative to his controlled regime propaganda channels. He acts like Hitler. Hitler also was popular, but only than when he fully controlled all media and then propaganda channels worked to brainwash people. So this is reality. And about how poor Russia has been invaded all the time – well as I wrote – it consists of many nations. How that happened? Through conquer. Russia allways has been aggressor and bullied smaller nations around it. Russians remember with pride how they occupied Baltic states, Poland, etc. They think that oppressing other people who are around Russia is their security issue. They don’t care what those other nations think and want. They are from imperia. And when USSR collapsed, those occupied nations got away. They knew that they have very small limited time to secure it’s future before Russia regains new imperator who will occupy them again. So Baltic states got away and managed to join EU & NATO. Georgia & Ukraine as some other nations didn’t managed to do that in time – so when Putin regime was rising up because it had growing oil prices and so growing budget that could be spend on military, these countries where stopped on their way. First Georgia was invaded and created artificial territories that are Russian puppets and only recognized by Russia Federation, than Ukrainian people stood up against their Russian puppet government and after that Putin regime invaded Ukraine. But as Putin regime can’t stand against whole world in open war, he is using this new type of war where he sends troops, mercenaries, bandits, etc. to Ukraine armed with Russian army weapons, tanks, etc. Using skilled propaganda some people where brainwashed before in Ukraine but not majority. And that is proven by polls where majority even in east Ukraine doesn’t support Russian army invasion to “liberate” them. Crimea first was occupied than annexed. If Ukraine at that time didn’t had traitor military staff than Crimea would be protected from this invasion with “little green man” (AKA Russian army soldiers without recognition signs) – but at that time Russia puppet government shills in Ukraine was still in many power structures and was not cleaned out – so that didn’t happened. Than came illegal referendums that Crimean’s chosen to join to Russia (just like when USSR occupied other countries and done these referendums) – and it was only recognized by RUSSIA as legit – but of course – it was they who invaded and organized this.  Any way – in result Georgia and Ukraine was stopped from joining EU & NATO. Something that people of those nations wanted but didn’t match Putin regime plans. We are fighting in two fronts, on the ground military and before that information war. And people in western world is attacked by such Putin regime propaganda to try brainwash you too. This year Putin regime has increased budget for creating new propaganda channels, pay more for internet trolls, so you can be sure – they will attack your mind.

 

Knowing ZH policy regarding truth – I guess this could be my last post from this account, because I could be simply blocked.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 02:48 | 5658931 InvalidID
InvalidID's picture

 

 You likely won't be blocked. I shit on Russia all the time and I've been here for years.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 03:21 | 5658967 Max Steel
Max Steel's picture

King of propaganda US getting pissed . strange .

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 18:39 | 5662233 InvalidID
InvalidID's picture

King? WOOT!!!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 05:30 | 5659094 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Ah, viedoklis_lv, I mean freedom123, is it that hard for you to be factual on obvious things?

Self contradictory, detached from reality, wishful thinking, unrealistic childish.

Sore delusion.

Another circular, empty, biased stroke of vacuity. Hope you can find your way back to earth to collect potato.

Tough landing to reality...

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:53 | 5659303 smacker
smacker's picture

"viedoklis_lv" (currently posting as "freedom123") writes: "I guess this could be my last post from this account, because I could be simply blocked."

I live in hope :-)

But you'll be back with yet another posting handle :-(

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:39 | 5659421 HowdyDoody
Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:21 | 5660889 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

All the best to you. There's no democracy in Canada iether. We have Putin light in charge. Only thing is I think we can kick him to the curb.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 02:51 | 5658932 Moribundus
Moribundus's picture

The magazine The Economist published an issue named “The World in 2015?. On the cover are odd images :  A mushroom cloud, the Federal Reserve in a game called “Panic” and much more.

http://vigilantcitizen.com/

http://vigilantcitizen.com/vigilantreport/economist-2015-cover-filled-cr...

 

But author missed one interesting point: @ the end of sign Singapore is Napoleon from painting done in 1812, year his unsuccesful march to Russia. 

http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/2015/01/08/bfp-exclusive-a-rothschild-pl...

 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 02:55 | 5658939 adeptish
adeptish's picture

" the fact that the European countries are all very cute and tiny and lovable, and make tasty cheeses and sausages; "

Best fucking sentence in a long time.

Russia, bitchez...

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 03:04 | 5658952 MedicalQuack
MedicalQuack's picture

If you haven't seen it, just came out today PBS Frontline, Putin's way...very well done..

MedicalQuack MT @frontlinepbs: #PutinsWay on @PBS and here online: bit.ly/1swy4Fh bit.ly/1swy2NQ (just watched this-excellent)

And then there's this article...

MedicalQuack "PUTIN not interested in building the middle class because he thinks the middle class is ungrateful.” to.pbs.org/1swzlMs via @PBS

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 03:52 | 5658999 Element
Element's picture

 

 

Oh get over all the Borsht Orlov, evolution is a process of adaptation.

Those that adapt best (not too much, nor for its own sake) generally will do better.

If you are not flexible to the practical realities around you, you lose.

Those that suck-up a pile of old cultural poo, and pound their chests for insular stasis, end up broke and broken.

Was the full and complete engagement with the West, after the war, an economic or cultural catastrophe for Japan? Or was it the greatest phase of their entire national history and development? They adapted, they excelled, they're globally respected, we value them greatly, and their culture also.

What is Russia so afraid of? Russia won't be invaded, ever again, if it invades none of its neighbours.

Or could it be fear of the unknown and of real adaptive change, instead? It sure looks that way. The world is not going to let Russia just sit there and make a prick of itself, you do have to engage with it and not try to run away from it. Stop the insecure macho bleating and get on with it.

Make friends, influence people, trade, have a good life, cut the crap.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 04:44 | 5659050 squid
squid's picture

"What is Russia so afraid of? Russia won't be invaded, ever again, if it invades none of its neighbours."

 

According to the way Russians look at it, Washington invaded Ukraine which in Russia is seen as "Little Russia".

 

You actually made his point, good job.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:19 | 5660875 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Dude, Japan is completely destroyed. They will all be moving to fucking Saskatchewan where they can hunt seals.

Thu, 01/15/2015 - 01:32 | 5663660 Element
Element's picture

Funny, I watched the MotoGP and F1 there this year, and the place was fucking great!

Better get your blinkers checked.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 05:18 | 5659082 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

lol, very interesting article

"But now comes a surprise—an underreported one, to say the least. Russia has just offered the EU a deal. 

(A) If the EU refuses to join the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the US (which, by the way, would hurt it economically)

(B) then it can join the Customs Union with Russia. Why freeze yourselves out when we can all freeze out Washington instead? This is the restitution Russia would accept for the EU's offensive behavior with regard to the Ukraine and the sanctions. Coming from a customs state, it is a most generous offer. A lot went into making it:

(C) the recognition that the EU poses no military threat to Russia and not much of an economic one either;

(D) the fact that the European countries are all very cute and tiny and lovable, and make tasty cheeses and sausages; the understanding that their current crop of national politicians is feckless and beholden to Washington, and that they need a big push in order to understand where their nations' true interests lie...

(E) Will the EU accept this offer, or will they accept Galicia as a new member and “freeze out”? "

from my perspective of someone that sees the TTIP as an aberration of all what Europe is, (A) is music to my ears

and yet, the article states that Eurasia/Russia is a customs state. Whatever the EU is, their members strive for a customs/trading arrangement. So the "trade with us instead with the US" is very partisan. We would prefer to trade with Russia/Eurasia and the US and the rest of the world. Even the most "feckless politicians beholden to Washington" see all this embargo stuff as a temporary measure, tied to an expected recognition from Russia that it startled it's (D) cute and tiny and lovable neighbours, which, as the article itselfs explains...

(1.) ... took offense. Yes, took offense by the non-standard format of how Crimea became a Russian claim. And this makes us having to stand our ground until Russia explains which rulebook it is going to use in the future. And again, this very article explains very well why we react this way (interestingly, to the puzzlement of many American diplos, who though obviously don't complain)

We europeans hate the unpredictability of Uncle Sam. We hate even more the extreme unpredictability of Uncle Vlad, paired with the "go to hell" position. To put it in less offensive terms, then offense is not meant, we would wish both to be more predictable, and to stick to one damn rulebook

it does not matter if it's the "sovereign" principles or the "international law" principles or even a new one. just damn be more predictable, publish a rulebook and damn stick to it

Mr. Orlov, Galicia is not your's to give nor ours to take. Don't mistake the thing from our side as an old imperial "territory swap" thing. Russia gave us a lot of offense, lately. A lot of the reasons for it resonate very well in Europe, particularly on how the US behaved,

but we are not just leaving a somewhat reliable though highly unpredictable partner (and sometimes overbearing overlord to be managed) for a...

less reliable and even more unpredictable ex-enemy-hopefully-new-partner (which might think itself as a new overbearing overlord with even less handles to be managed)

it's really as easy as that. the US might be painted at as the frying pan, but you gave us lots of reasons to look at you as the burning fire

Russia's future friendship with Europe can find many grounds, particularly trade. Our chief concern is reliability and predictability of partners. Preferably, peers, then that's our preferred way

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 08:15 | 5659269 smacker
smacker's picture

Did I hear you say: "Let's Bomb Brussels"?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:49 | 5659471 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

no, smacker, what I write is: "Mr. Smacker, tear down that avatar! it's... inaccurate". you cute little european, you. have a sausage. a Spotted Dick?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 12:51 | 5660393 smacker
smacker's picture

OK. I'll replace it with a Swastika emblem.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:29 | 5660943 tired1
tired1's picture

How did Brussles become the center of anything?

Look for the usual suspects.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 08:36 | 5659293 Element
Element's picture

So what you seem to be saying is that Russia was doing really well there, the relationship was developing nicely, but then Vladimir Putin went a bit skew-if, not much at first, then a false flag in Damascus occurred, Vlad tried to compromise, but the west then went after the Black sea fleet host, then Vlad got really Bolshy, started pointing nuclear weapons, took big chunk of Ukraine, stole a navy, ignited a war, and turned Russia into a substantial, trade, political, and geopolitical as well as direct physical risk to the EU, and to international trade and order, and to world peace.

But only after the US had done many similar vile things, but with not quite the same (arguable) level of apparent egregiousness.

In the end this is all about trade restriction removal, but these two 'sides' want to impose barriers, and global-control oriented fiefdoms, and are both using some very underhanded, nasty, objectionable violent and literally offensive methods.

Well, how about you tell them both to go get stuffed, and Europa joins forces with Oceania, and we'll all go shopping after a perfunctory anti-terrorism strip-search as we just need to be sure your undies aren't packing a WMD or something.
 
I do hope no one trade-sanctions the popcorn as Orwell was just 31 years late ... and I just caught my telescreen looking at me again!! ... wtf?! ... oh, and Goldstein really is a terrorist shithead, it's all true! ... but O'Brien is really named ... Obumma!!

Other than that, pretty close. ... oh, got to go ... the two minites of hate is about to start.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:02 | 5659512 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Losing the link to Russia would be a strategic mistake for Europe.

As De Gaulle said : From the Atlantic to the Urals...stays true today.

The poster makes some very valid historical points :

1° Alexander Nevski and the Kiev/Vladimir legacy is key to Russian culture just like Byzantine orthodoxy is.

2° All western encroachments ended up like Napoleon's campaign; one step is all it takes to fall from the sublime to the absurd. And Russia has lots of space to make that come about !

3° Russia's contribution to the Enlightenment; its quest for cultural excellence is beyond doubt : Tolstoi to Kasparov and in so many fields.

4° For Europe to decouple to Pax Americana is a necessary pre-requisite; now in the cards as the Empire fades. But it'll take time as the US is not just a coercitive empire, it is also beacon of innovation and freedom. How the US evolves and how the Europeans emerge as a coherent political group have still to be defined. Its not just Russia that has to change.

5° For this rapprochement to occur the Russian system has to evolve from a militarist and corrupt Oligarchy to something more palatable for European values. The Putin galaxy is not a system that is stable and it must evolve to be at par with Europe on the vital issue of ethos of power. Russia's big stick has to be put aside. Nuclear threats have no place in the coming world order if it wants to avoid recurrent Armageddon.

Yes, Peers and predicatble acts, 'cos similar values and mindsets about the ESSENTIEL are the pre-requisites.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 06:33 | 5659086 Pundit
Pundit's picture

As I already wrote in some of my comments here on ZH I'm Russian. Just an ordinary guy with a family and a nine-to-five job. I did support Putin a few months ago and I do support him even stronger today. Although it must be admitted that the US and their european lapdogs has achieved a certain success in making ordinary Russians poorer and their life more difficult, which they can definitely be proud of, my attitude to Putin hasn't changed. What has changed dramatically is my attitude towards the West. I've seen the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the bloody nineties, the despair of the 1998 default, the world economic crisis of 2008. I've been through it all but this time it's totally different. The current economic difficulties in Russia are caused by deliberate action of a group of countries lead by the US directed to stopping Russia from implementing an independent foreign policy and defending its national interests. Who the hell are you to tell us what to do? Do you really think you can dictate others how they're supposed to live and punish them if  they dare to disobey? Naive fools. We'll get over it. Just as we always did. But we will not forget.

Speaking of the Paris Unity march attended by millions of people and lots of world leaders, where were you all when almost fifty innocent people were burnt alive in Odessa on the 2nd of May????????

 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:42 | 5659438 HowdyDoody
HowdyDoody's picture

"where were you all when almost fifty innocent people were burnt alive in Odessa on the 2nd of May????????"

+1000

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:27 | 5659661 'argar the 'orrible
'argar the 'orrible's picture

I'm with you on what you say Pundit, but please do not be too hard on the us/uk nato citizens, ( different from the grasping washington  lead eu politicians) they do not know the truth as they are fed B/S from the so called 'news media' who are controlled by the cia, not to mention the die hard, 'my country right or wrong' mindless mob. One day they will find out, although I suspect it will be to late, and there will be severe consequences.

The pitchforks are coming.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:56 | 5659811 falak pema
falak pema's picture

very true; as for the murders of Boko Haram occuring in Nigeria. 

The west first looks at its own narrow parochial interest. 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:23 | 5660554 Watchingtheweasels
Watchingtheweasels's picture

Hello - I'm an American (politically of the constitutional-libertarian bent, not Republican or Democrat).

You reference this: "where were you all when almost fifty innocent people were burnt alive in Odessa on the 2nd of May????????"

What happened here?  We didn't hear anything about this on our mainstream - or even on alternative - news sources.

My personal view is this is retarded.  We need to end sanctions and work with Russia against the growing Islamic menace that has bitten both of our countries (in New York and Beslan, respectively...)

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:22 | 5660555 Watchingtheweasels
Watchingtheweasels's picture

Hello - I'm an American (politically of the constitutional-libertarian bent, not Republican or Democrat).

You reference this: "where were you all when almost fifty innocent people were burnt alive in Odessa on the 2nd of May????????"

What happened here?  We didn't hear anything about this on our mainstream - or even on alternative - news sources.

My personal view is this is retarded.  We need to end sanctions and work with Russia against the growing Islamic menace that has bitten both of our countries (in New York and Beslan, respectively...)

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 06:31 | 5659134 activisor
activisor's picture

The US is at last being openly recognised as a rogue State, whose bullying and threatening tactics are no longer acceptable to a waking world. Leaders are beginning speak out, despite the threats of retaliatory "hits" via Operation Gladio events. Financially, the dollar is being rejected across the world, and its days as a reserve currency are numbered.

The EU leaders, against the wishes of the majority of their citizens, continue (on the surface) to support US foreign policy on Ukraine. Business leaders do not. It is clear that a choice has to made -either do nothing and watch their economies die, or risk the wrath of US might, and align with the Eurasian bloc, which is where the future trading opportunities lie.  It is a no brainer -let us hope common sense prevails. 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 06:33 | 5659138 activisor
activisor's picture

The US is at last being openly recognised as a rogue State, whose bullying and threatening tactics are no longer acceptable to a waking world. Leaders are beginning speak out, despite the threats of retaliatory "hits" via Operation Gladio events. Financially, the dollar is being rejected across the world, and its days as a reserve currency are numbered.

The EU leaders, against the wishes of the majority of their citizens, continue (on the surface) to support US foreign policy on Ukraine. Business leaders do not. It is clear that a choice has to made -either do nothing and watch their economies die, or risk the wrath of US might, and align with the Eurasian bloc, which is where the future trading opportunities lie.  It is a no brainer -let us hope common sense prevails. 

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 07:26 | 5659204 golightly
golightly's picture

Pretty slanted, but a good read

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:28 | 5659384 Duude
Duude's picture

Russia requires a healthy world economy to keep themselves afloat over the long term. There is no way around it. Russia has virtually all of their economic eggs in the basket of natural resources. Natural resources get cheap when the world economy sucks. Its a demand/supply thing. Russia also exports weapons and nuclear power plant builds. But together these two exports are nothing next to its exports of natural resources.  The remainder of Russia's economy is dominated by old Soviet era government enterprise aka make-work jobs. The Russian economy is notoriously inefficient and fully noncompetitive when dealing with global competition. Putin has done NOTHING for the Russian economy. He took power in the late 1990s when oil was in the toilet. Upon seizing power he seized natural resource assets previously in the possession of cronies of the last President and transferred them to his own cronies. The rise in the price of oil had nothing to do with Putin. He was just the beneficiary of a glut that transformed into not enough for world demand. With higher revenue from natural resouces Putin did NOTHING to transform the Russian economy  into a more dynamic economy. He only recently admitted to Russia's need to diversify.  As for Russia's recently signed agreements to provide China with natural gas, the devil is in the details. Russia was deeply in need of a signed agreement to counter the blowback he was getting from Europe at the time. Russia and China had been negotiating for 10 years and couldn't reach an agreement on account of price. Recently, it was revealed they never did agree on price.  No wonder, China has the world's largest shale deposits and is expected to be well on their way to fracking their way to self-sufficiency sometime in the decade of the 2020s.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:43 | 5659434 'argar the 'orrible
'argar the 'orrible's picture

Duude, It seems you did not read all of the article, the largest grain exporter, millitary ( Russia now supplys  China's aircraft with engines) and farm equipment, and rocket engines, the us can't get it's iss support rockets off the ground, or did you forget the one that exploded, or maybe you were not told of that in the us. I think you predudice is showing. Russia is not the best in everything but its getting there, give it another 10 years, and see the changes. Notwithstanding the best efforts of the us in trying to destabilise Russia, it has come along way.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:47 | 5661048 tired1
tired1's picture

10 years? I think you're correct. Western powers realise now that in ten years,left undisturbed, Russia will become the great power in Europe/Asia. Hence the sense of urgency to move against her now.

Ironically it was Stolypin who said something like“Give Russia 20 years of internal and external peace and quiet and it will change beyond recognition.”

Sortly afterwards he was assinated, the Jews took over and the rest is history.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 09:28 | 5659387 'argar the 'orrible
'argar the 'orrible's picture

Seems that Vlad has them by the short and curlys. Ouch!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:25 | 5659603 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Western nations have emerged in an environment of limited resources and relentless population pressure,

Limited resouces and relentless population pressure?...

100 years of American imperialism at it's finest creating a stable of dislocated souls from all corners of the globe they touch and the vassal states they leave behind in it's wake with no choices or incentives to staying home and ironically coming in many cases to the "casino" for survival after the indigenous home has been obliterated!

When Uncle Sam is the "hammer" and every vassal state it attempts to acquire is another "nail"!!!!

100 years later with an offensive military in the worst shape in it's history taking on a well rested and strategically superior military that will be the last range war they will fight?...

NOT!!!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:39 | 5659727 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Based on the author's description, I guess my mother is even a bigger liar than I previously thought. She has always claimed I am of Scottish, Irish, and Welsh heritage, but clearly, this is a big fat lie and I am actually Russian. What a relief!!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 10:46 | 5659767 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Superb read!

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 12:27 | 5660270 401-Kulak
401-Kulak's picture

20 Dollar Oil Dead Cash Cow Says What?!?

Economy the Size of Italy Says What?!?

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 13:18 | 5660535 Watchingtheweasels
Watchingtheweasels's picture

So the Russians are upset about our Ukrainian interventions, just as we were upset over their Cuban ones.  We need to quit meddling around in the Ukraine.  Ask yourself, would George Washington have anything to say about Russian-Ukraian relations let alone sending money or troops there?  We need to cut this crap out and get back to being the old (pre-Spanish-American war) America.  Every camel herder on the planet wants to kill us and we're playing chicken with a potential ally in Russia?  This is retarded...but so is our president.

Wed, 01/14/2015 - 14:06 | 5660804 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Do not dent your Porsche. The replacement parts are expensive. Or will you just find a stolen one?

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