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Ekloges 2015: Greece Votes In Historic For Europe Election

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in June 2012, when Greece last voted to choose its ruling party not once but twice, the Eurozone ground to a halt in anticipation of a nailbiliting outcome that could have seen the exit of Greece from the Euro and the gradual, at first, collapse of the artificial European political union. It was this vote, which saw the hardline socialist, "anti-bailout" Syriza lose by the smallest of margins, that led the surge in peripheral yields to record highs in the weeks following, and was the catalyst for Draghi's infamous "whatever it takes" speech in July 2012, which culminated last week with the launch of the ECB's Q€.

Today, Greece votes again in an election that came to be after the now deeply unpopular Prime Minister failed to muster enough support for his presidential candidate, and here, courtesy of @damomac, is a sampling of the nearly 20 "choices" the Greek long-suffering population is presented with.

 

What is at stake for Greece today? Largely the same things as in 2012, which means an appropriate question is what is at stake for Europe. The answer: a lot, because suddenly the fate of the European monetary union is in the hands of some 9.8 million eligible to vote Greeks: something the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels had hoped to avoid in perpetuity. And with the leading candidate on war footing with Brussels (if only for the time being) the next few days in Europe will be quite interesting:  "In Greece, democracy will return," the party's 40-year-old leader Alexis Tsipras told a throng of cameras as he voted in Athens. "The message is that our common future in Europe is not the future of austerity."

Here is a quick summary of the day's events from Deutsche Welle:

Greek voters are going to the polls in an election that is being closely watched all over the EU. The vote could result in a party taking power that wants to renegotiate the terms of Greece's international bailout.

 

 

Opinion polls, published on Friday, the last day of the election campaign, gave the far left, anti-austerity Syriza party, led by 40-year-old Alexis Tsipras a clear lead over the governing conservative New Democracy party, led by Prime Minister Antonis Samaras.

 

Nine separate polls gave Syriza a lead of anywhere from 2.8 percent over New Democracy, but they also indicated that around 10 percent of Greece's nearly 10 million eligible voters remained undecided.

 

As voters cast their ballots this Sunday, they will be presented with a clear choice; to place their faith in the painful austerity measures introduced by Samaras' government to comply with the terms of Greece's international bailout and fix the country's finances long-term - or to hitch their wagon to Tsipras' promises to roll back the austerity measures and negotiate more favorable terms.

 

In his final appeal to the voters on Friday, Samaras urged Greeks to reelect his government, saying it sould be crazy to take a chance on Syriza just when the austerity measures he introduced could be about to pay off.

 

"Syriza will turn all of Europe against Greece.... They don't understand Europe, they don't believe in Europe," Samaras said at a campaign rally in Athens. However, with an unemployment rate of 25 percent, it is no secret that this is a tough sell.

 

For his part, Tsipras said he planned to restore Greece's dignity by rolling back public sector layoffs, pay and pension cuts, and getting the country's creditors to write off much of its public debt.

 

What remains unclear is whether, if elected, he will be able to deliver on these promises. Critics have also warned that trying to renegotiate the terms of Greece's bailout with the European Union, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, could lead the "Grexit" scenario, in which the country would wind up leaving the eurozone. Syriza has said that it wants Greece to remain in the eurozone, and on Friday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, seen by many Greeks as the driving force behind the tough terms of the bailout, expressed a similar sentiment.

 

"At the heart of our principles lies solidarity. I want Greece, despite the difficulties, to remain part of our story," Merkel said.

While Tsipras promises the unachievable, the population - eager to take a chance on anyone - will likely believe him. As Reuters reports, Tsipras' campaign slogan "Hope is coming!" has resonated with austerity-weary voters, despite Samaras' warnings that a Syriza government could bankrupt Greece.

"We are voting for Alexis Tsipras to put an end to this misery," said Stavroula Gourdourou, an unemployed mother who voted for the ruling conservatives in 2012. "Enough is enough! We won't let them destroy our children."

Which is also why Syriza's victory is assured. The only question is how big the majority will be and whether Syriza will have an absolute majority.

Which means that the fate of Greece will not be in the hands of the big parties, but in the small ones, with the question being how many pass the critical 3% threshold and whether enough do to prevent Syriza from getting an outright majority in parliament.

Ironically, it may be up to that veteran of Greek politics, George Papandreou, and his new KDS party, to determine if Syriza gets an absolute majority: something which will be unlikely if KDS crosses the 3% threshold.

Here is Macropolis' explanation of why the "also ran" parties are crucial this time around: "This time round, a total of 22 parties (including four coalitions) are running in the election. Assuming that seven of them will make it into parliament (Syriza, New Democracy, Potami, KKE, Pasok, Independent Greeks and Golden Dawn), recent opinion polls suggest that the “also rans” could take anything from 5 to 8 percent. Or even more. Pushing up the figure will be the share of the vote taken by former prime minister George Papandreou’s Movement of Democratic Socialists, leftwing antiausterity ANTARSYA, nationalist LAOS, and Democratic Left, all of which are not expected to make it into parliament."

More:

When the counting of votes gets underway in Greece’s election on Sunday night, most eyes will be focused on election favourite Syriza’s tally to see if the leftist party stands a chance of gaining an overall majority in the new parliament. But under the Greek electoral system, determining whether the biggest party achieves an overall majority just doesn’t depend on its share of the vote, as important as that may be. One of the quirks of the system is that a host of other parties also play a major role in whether the main party gets to rule alone or not.

 

The political equivalent of the “also rans” in horseracing, these are the parties that fail to clear the three percent hurdle to enter parliament. The aggregate of the “also rans” is always important because if the percentage gained by these small parties totals 5 percent, for example, the winning party would need 38.4 percent to take 151 seats. If the total support for parties not entering Parliament reaches 10 percent, the threshold for the victorious party falls to 36.4.

 

The other words: the higher the share of the “also rans”, the easier it is for the poll-topping party to form a single-party government and avoid a coalition.

 

While some of these parties are familiar, like the far-right LAOS party that was in parliament until 2012, most are so obscure that only hardened political anoraks will have never heard of them, like numerous groups sporting the word “communist” in their title or the fantastically named perennial contestant run by a farmer in northern Greece called “Independent Innovative Left, Renewed Right, Renewed PASOK, Renewed New Democracy, No to War, Party of Business ‘I Give Away Land, I Give Away Debts, I Save Lives,’ Panagriarian Workers Movement of Greece”.

 

As previous results show, these parties are neither are they small in number, nor are the percentages they receive anything to be scoffed at.

 

In the first of the elections in 2012, for example, a record 25 “also rans” won a staggering 1.2 million votes, or some 19 percent of the total. Taken together, that made them more successful than New Democracy, which took 1.19 million votes (18.85 percent).

 

In the second election in June, the 15 of them who could afford to run again took 368,277 votes, or almost 6 percent. That was more than the communist KKE received and just less than Democratic Left, which won 17 seats.

And then there is of course also the question of just how "hard line" Tsipras really is: assuming he does get an absolute majority, will he dare to end the gravy train of handouts, as meager as they may have been, from Germany and Brussels over the past 6 years just to risk returning to the Drahcma, and even more pain, if only for the next 6-12 months as Greece has its long-overdue external adjustment which would also allow Greece to finally return to growth but only after the very painful preliminary period. A period that would be even more painful for the rest of Europe as one after another peripheral nation, also drowning in unemployment, decides to take the Greek route?

According to Reuters, despite all the bluster and rhetoric, Tsipras will most likely just continue the same Euro-directed show and dance.

Renouncing much of the firebrand rhetoric that was once his hallmark, Tsipras has promised to keep Greece in the euro and dropped threats to "tear up" the tough requirements of its 240 billion euro bailout.

 

He has promised to renegotiate a deal with the European Commission, ECB and International Monetary Fund "troika" and write off much of Greece's 320 billion-euro debt, despite clear signs from partners including Germany that they would refuse.

 

At the same time, he wants to raise the minimum wage, cut power prices for low income families, cut taxes and reverse pension and public sector pay cuts.

We shall have the answers soon: the first exit polls hit at 7pm local Time (noon Eastern) with the first official projections due out just over two hours later, at 9:30pm local. Once available, the official results will be updated in real-time on the following map.

We will provide updates during this historic for Greece and the Eurozone day, but in the meantime, here are some additional notable comments from twitter.

 

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Sun, 01/25/2015 - 12:23 | 5702076 grekko
grekko's picture

Come on Greece, give it one for the Gipper!  Trash the Euro Scum from Brussels.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 12:34 | 5702104 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Humanity is waking up as fast as I can type these words down, and dont forget some 3 Billion of us 'Humans' have no access to the web.  :-)  Unpossiible eh?

Anyone else here wondering what Tspiras the leader of Syriza knows at the tender age of 40 having never held a 'Real' job, outside of the muck-pool that is politics?  Strange eh?  Bit like Obama, Cameron, Clegg, Miliband, Hollande, Merkel, Samaras, you get my drift?  Fucking queer that eh?

Nope my ZH friends, I'm sticking to my guns, there is no fucking political answer to our fucking monumental problems, at this point its the fucking theatre of the absurd, and in all honesty if you asked yourself the very same question wherever you live, I do believe it applies to us all, eh?

How mother fucking strange..

;-)

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 13:26 | 5702429 Escapedgoat
Escapedgoat's picture

How right are you mate, how right.

There are safety zones for the system.

1st The Electoral fraud starts from the SINGULAR  that counts the Votes

2nd You cannot verify the counted votes. Counted behind closed doors.

3rd The so called 1st Party gets a bonus of 20% extra seats , something like a TV Game. It favours the old established corrupt parties.

4th Dead, unaccounted voters vote, Too many Emigrated that are eligible but obviously NOT ALL can get to vote, therefore the Crooks in charge twick the results.

5th All the Mainstream Media are Nobled with NO independed opinions THEY ARE ALL BOUGHT and PAID FOR. Tools of the Oligarchs. ALL of THEM

6th ALL Politicians ARE LYING  even as they are asleep (I borrowed the term from Alex Jones),  SomeAreAss promised to negotiate and as soon as he was declared the winner in the last election, he Somersaulted spectacularly and announced the he wil NOT NEGOTIATE  as he respects the previous governement's signature.

7th All Parties are the managers of the BANKSTERS  with the hope to steal some or a lot of the LOOT.

And finally there may be other points that I missed, Thats what I could extract from a quick search.

 

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 12:35 | 5702113 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

Greece can break the House of Cards today

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 12:44 | 5702180 Pinstripe
Pinstripe's picture

I wanna keep th EU around, but we don't need the Euro for that. Thank you.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 12:59 | 5702263 Ribeye
Ribeye's picture

To quote Vicky Noodles 

 

"fck the EU"

 

I hope I live to see those buildings in Brussels and Strasbourg razed to the ground, 

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 12:46 | 5702182 SystemOfaDrown
SystemOfaDrown's picture

Beginning of the End for Neo-Liberalism and it's horrific austerity policies.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 13:00 | 5702267 JR
JR's picture

By mislabeling concepts and words, the oligarchs and their media puppets win both ways.

Obhene’s post to The Guardian a few minutes ago regarding the Greek election story and Tsipras’  “radical leftist party,” as the media calls it, expresses the dilemma the people of the world face because words have lost their true meaning through Newspeak.  The oligarchs and their media label the inhumane results of their own finance or crony “capitalism” (fascism) to denounce free-market capitalism that built America as they work feverishly to replace it with a banker-controlled world socialist state.

Both ways, the oligarchs win. That is why the richest men in the world, such as George Soros, finance both Communist revolution and Socialist legislation; it is to manipulate themselves into domination of the world’s governments and wealth.

Through this seizure of power via Communist agitation and Socialist legislation they gain the human and natural resources of the world while the unwashed concentrate on the evils of “Hitler” and “capitalism.”

Witness Greece’s downfall and Obhene’s lament:

“Ancient Greece brought many great changes into the ancient world. I hope the progressives there can help create a new model – again.

“Last week the coalition of the powerful -- billionaires, investors, shareholders and their political servants -- arrived in Davos, Switzerland. They were protected by more than a thousand strong police officers, some soldiers and their personal bodyguards. Most of these people are among the 1% who control about 60-70% of the world’s wealth. Switzerland has some of the best and most expensive ski resorts in the world. So the Economy Forum has been scheduled to coincide with the Winter season. Davos has some of the most exclusive hotels in the world. It attracts the best chefs, who can cook the best meals and choose the best wines some of us can only dream of. During this time many gorgeous women are also available – in Switzerland we call it ‘discreet’.

“Meanwhile many citizens across the world, even in wealthy nations including Switzerland, are living on the existence minimum.

“These super-rich and the politicians and what the British thinker Terry Eagleton refers to as ‘neocon gangsters’ who help the 1% to increase their inordinate wealth, come and talk and talk and talk, and nothing changes. The only thing that changes is their lucrative connections, and plans on how to increase their already phenomenal wealth.

“This capitalism, this liberalism that has converted the earth into a market, and everything into commodity, and in the process has created appalling inequalities the kinds the world has never seen before, has failed. It has to be replaced by a new more humane and sympathetic model.

“Ancient Greece brought many great changes into the ancient world. I hope the progressives there can help create a new model -- again.

“Again, I wish Syriza all the best in this endeavour. . I wholeheartedly wish Syriza a great success!”

Here is the truth, from Martin Armstrong: “The difference between Capitalism and Socialism is simple. Capitalism is where you are free to decide what you do with your money, and Socialism is where government orders you what to do with their money, which you earn.

“The difference between Communism and Socialism is clever. The former ‘owns’ everything and the latter you own it but they tax it and if you cannot pay the tax they take it.”

That said and ignoring all media labels and cheap hand wringing, I am rooting for Alexis Tsipras.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 13:06 | 5702297 youngman
youngman's picture

Exit polls say Syriza has a 12% lead...more than last night....they might not need any one else to form a government...then watch the sparks fly...

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 13:27 | 5702439 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

Optimistic polls say 39.5%

 

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 13:26 | 5702431 Evil Franklin
Evil Franklin's picture

So far it's only the bankers that are being off'd.

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 17:27 | 5702902 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

Dear Citizens of The Republic Of Greece,

I am writing this note to you to encourage you to default on ALL outstanding Greek Government obligations to foreign creditors at the earliest possible convenience.

I am not encouraging default in order to profit in any way as I have NO direct or indirect financial interest in Greek debts or securities relating to Greek debts of any kind.

I am encouraging that you take this step for several reasons which I will here ennumerate.

1. I believe that the Citizens of Greece have unjustly been saddled with both foreign debts and domestic debts without proper compensation in the form of title to foreign and domestic real assets and other proper collaterals that backed many of these debts at the time of origination.

2. I believe that captured politicians and bureaucrats have acted to protect their personal interests and the interests of their supporters both foreign and domestic by engineering an illegal socialization of private debts unto the balance sheet of the Greek Republic.

3. I believe that debt must be apportioned and priced according to the risk of it being repaid.  -At present there are persons and institutions, the so-called Troika not being inclusive of ALL of these, which are subverting these neccessary market forces by instigating regimes of forced austerity and debt sharing onto not only the Citizens of Greece, but onto populations all over the world.

I believe that by defaulting on ALL of the foreign obligations outstanding to ALL creditors that The Citizens of Greece will be doing not only themselves a service but many other populations as well in forcing a both a proper assessment of the genesis and nature of outstanding debts, and recognition of risk into the debt markets all over the world.

Thank you ALL for your time and consideration.

With best regards, hope, and deep affection for your Republic and the Citizenry that The Republic Of Greece exists only to serve,

The Throxx Of Vron

Sun, 01/25/2015 - 22:25 | 5704583 flyonmywall
flyonmywall's picture

It doesn't matter if Greece defaults.

Do you really think that the timing of the QE announcement, the Greek Election, and the Swiss going off their Euro peg were mere accidents?

Please. Nothing in politics happens by accident. Don't be so naive. The Greek debt is 4 months worth of QE, at 60 billion a month. The well connected banks will make their money back in spades in a few months. Nobody in Brussels gives a rat's ass about Greece. It's a rounding error.

 

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