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"Hottest Year On Record?" Think Again! Meet 'Seasonally-Adjusted' Seasons

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Day after day in modern macro-economics, investors are bombarded with 'odd' seasonal adjustments that spuriously lift (in the case of growth-related variables) or reduce (in the case of inflation-related variables) data to ensure a constant flow of "we must keep offering free/cheap money" narrative-confirming news.

However, as The Telegraph reports, it appears this "seasonal adjustment" smoke-screen has reached the just as bifurcated opinioned world of global warming trends and Climate-Gate...

Although it has been emerging for seven years or more, one of the most extraordinary scandals of our time has never hit the headlines. Yet another little example of it lately caught my eye when, in the wake of those excited claims that 2014 was “the hottest year on record”, I saw the headline on a climate blog: “Massive tampering with temperatures in South America”. The evidence on Notalotofpeopleknowthat, uncovered by Paul Homewood, was indeed striking.

 

Puzzled by those “2014 hottest ever” claims, which were led by the most quoted of all the five official global temperature records – Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Giss) – Homewood examined a place in the world where Giss was showing temperatures to have risen faster than almost anywhere else: a large chunk of South America stretching from Brazil to Paraguay.

 

Noting that weather stations there were thin on the ground, he decided to focus on three rural stations covering a huge area of Paraguay. Giss showed it as having recorded, between 1950 and 2014, a particularly steep temperature rise of more than 1.5C: twice the accepted global increase for the whole of the 20th century.

 

But when Homewood was then able to check Giss’s figures against the original data from which they were derived, he found that they had been altered. Far from the new graph showing any rise, it showed temperatures in fact having declined over those 65 years by a full degree. When he did the same for the other two stations, he found the same. In each case, the original data showed not a rise but a decline.

 

Homewood had in fact uncovered yet another example of the thousands of pieces of evidence coming to light in recent years that show that something very odd has been going on with the temperature data relied on by the world's scientists. And in particular by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has driven the greatest and most costly scare in history: the belief that the world is in the grip of an unprecedented warming.

 

How have we come to be told that global temperatures have suddenly taken a great leap upwards to their highest level in 1,000 years? In fact, it has been no greater than their upward leaps between 1860 and 1880, and 1910 and 1940, as part of that gradual natural warming since the world emerged from its centuries-long “Little Ice Age” around 200 years ago.

 

This belief has rested entirely on five official data records. Three of these are based on measurements taken on the Earth’s surface, versions of which are then compiled by Giss, by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and by the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit working with the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, part of the UK Met Office. The other two records are derived from measurements made by satellites, and then compiled by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) in California and the University of Alabama, Huntsville (UAH).

 

 

 

 

To fill in the huge gaps, those compiling the records have resorted to computerised “infilling” or “homogenising”, whereby the higher temperatures recorded by the remaining stations are projected out to vast surrounding areas (Giss allows single stations to give a reading covering 1.6 million square miles). This alone contributed to the sharp temperature rise shown in the years after 1990.

 

But still more worrying has been the evidence that even this data has then been subjected to continual “adjustments”, invariably in only one direction. Earlier temperatures are adjusted downwards, more recent temperatures upwards, thus giving the impression that they have risen much more sharply than was shown by the original data.

 

In reality, the implications of such distortions of the data go much further than just representing one of the most bizarre aberrations in the history of science. The fact that our politicians have fallen for all this scary chicanery has given Britain the most suicidally crazy energy policy (useless windmills and all) of any country in the world.

*  *  *

Seaonally-adjusted seasons? Sure, why not!

 

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Sun, 02/01/2015 - 20:46 | 5733084 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Global Warming suspect. But the real tale of the tape would be rising or falling sea levels. What's the data on this?

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 08:55 | 5734066 fel.temp.reparatio
fel.temp.reparatio's picture

*** NEWS FLASH: SEA LEVELS RISING DAILY!! ***

...just don't mention the tides ;-)

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 17:13 | 5732379 viator
viator's picture

"Look at Washington State. The Nisqually Glacier on Mt. Rainier is growing. The Emmons Glacier on Mt. Rainier is growing. Glaciers on Glacier Peak in northern Washington are growing. And Crater Glacier on Mt. Saint Helens is now larger than it was before the 1980 eruption. (I don’t think all of the glaciers in Washington or Alaska are being monitored either.)

Or look at California. All seven glaciers on California’s Mount Shasta are growing. This includes three-mile-long Whitney glacier, the state’s largest. Three of Mount Shasta’s glaciers have doubled in size since 1950.

Or look at Alaska. Glaciers are growing in Alaska for the first time in 250 years. In May of last year, Alaska’s Hubbard Glacier was advancing at the rate of seven feet (two meters) per day - more than half-a-mile per year. And in Icy Bay, at least three glaciers advanced a third of a mile (one half kilometer) in one year.

Oh, by the way. The Juneau Icefield, with its “positive values,” covers 1,505 square miles (3,900 sq km) and is the fifth-largest ice field in the Western Hemisphere. Rather interesting to know that Gore’s own source admits that the fifth-largest ice field in the Western Hemisphere is growing, don’t you think?

But this mere handful of growing glaciers is just an anomaly, the erstwhile Mr. Gore would have you believe.

Well, let’s look at a few other countries.

  • Perito Moreno Glacier, the largest glacier in Argentina, is growing. 
  • Pio XI Glacier, the largest glacier in Chile, is growing.
  • Glaciers are growing on Mt. Logan, the tallest mountain in Canada.
  • Glaciers are growing on Mt. Blanc, the tallest mountain in France.
  • Glaciers are growing in Norway, says the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE)."
Sun, 02/01/2015 - 22:32 | 5733300 Binko
Binko's picture

That's just fucking sad. You are linking to some fruitcake fringe website called "Ice Age Now". The articles that they, in turn, link to are actually saying the exact opposite of the spin they try to put on it.

For example, the one about Glaciers Growing in Alaska for the first time in 250 years. Wow, sounds like a big change in trend. Wrong, the reality is that Glaciers shrunk in 249 years out of 250 and grew in this one extra cold year.

Climate change denial is like some kind of secondary religion for the loony. It's so detached from reality that I figure it must be mostly religious nuts who feel threatened by the idea that some force other than their imaginary friend can change the planet.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 05:25 | 5734013 fel.temp.reparatio
fel.temp.reparatio's picture

"We globally warmed some folks."

...actually has multiple meanings, when you think about it

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 08:56 | 5734272 Donutwarrior
Donutwarrior's picture

Detached from reality, you mean like faking your data is "real science".  Now that is funny.  AGW is a fraud, period.

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 22:29 | 5733296 Jameson18
Jameson18's picture

Are you new here or just stupid ?

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 16:56 | 5732323 rejected
rejected's picture

" The fact that our politicians have fallen for all this scary chicanery has given Britain the most suicidally crazy energy policy (useless windmills and all) of any country in the world."

 

They haven't 'fallen for it'  they developed and nurtured it. It's the final takeover which is why you cannot kill it regardless of how much truth is disseminated. Ask Lord Monckton.

The global warming Nazi's wanted to halve the CO2 which would have probably killed off a large chunk of plant life. Please remember,,, these plants make the oxygen we breath, so there is a good probability animal life would be adversely affected too.  

A good interview with Lord Monckton:

http://usawatchdog.com/climate-change-is-global-communist-tyranny-lord-c...

 

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 17:19 | 5732406 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Not so fast.  The difference between the two graphs is not "raw" vs "adjusted".  The graph you label as "raw" is actually the GHCN v2 analysis, while the graph you label as "seasonally-adjusted" is the GHCN v3 analysis.  You can dig into the GISS web site and the peer-reviewed publications cited there, which lay out the various analytical methods.  But this is not "raw" data versus "adjusted" data.

Mon, 02/23/2015 - 12:21 | 5818474 UserZero
UserZero's picture

"peer-reviewed"

We can thank the Warmmunists for completely draining that term of any substantive meaning.

 

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 18:10 | 5732605 Bumbu Sauce
Bumbu Sauce's picture

They tell you what they war against freely.

The war on carbon is a war on humans.  They want a diminished human population with them as the philosopher kings, and you to lay the bricks for their castles and homes.  Fluck them to hades.

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 18:51 | 5732721 logicalman
logicalman's picture

I don't think the thieves want less people on the planet, that would reduce the number they can steal from.

Women were encouraged to go into the workforce so they could be taxed, not for the benefit of women.

I don't view men as being superior to women, or vice versa.

Evolution gave the two genders different roles.

8 months pregnant trying to bring down a large animal with a stone-tipped spear just wouldn't work.

I'm thinking many in here enjoy the differences ;-)

It's all about the theft and the methods of convincing people that 'it's for their own good'

 

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 19:05 | 5732786 Mayer Amschel R...
Mayer Amschel Rothschild's picture

Ironically, evolution can't explain how the two sexes come about from asexual reproduction.  This would have required a coordinated parallel path of evolution.

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 19:58 | 5732974 logicalman
logicalman's picture

You sure about that?

 

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 22:27 | 5733280 mijev
mijev's picture

They're not like us humans.

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 21:51 | 5733195 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Women are a completely different specie, sent here from another planet to ruin a many a Man. 

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 18:26 | 5732652 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

So, basically, the whole global warming meme has been rigged from the start. Go figure.

But why? Cui bono? (who benefits)

Global carbon tax (to combat global warming) = groundwork for global taxation by a global government

 

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 18:44 | 5732702 logicalman
logicalman's picture

The only part the 1% give a shit about is another excuse to steal from the populace.

It's not that they actually give a shit about people.

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 22:34 | 5733305 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

To overcome the resistance of ingroup-outgroup morality towards being forced into one globally governed ingroup by using the fiction of man-made global warming as the evil threatening outgroup.

By the time the lie is exposed for what it is, you would have had world government for 50 years and virtually no chance of undoing it.

Like lying us into war but without a tangible enemy.

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 22:34 | 5733307 Binko
Binko's picture

Yes!! Massive global conspiracy by all the richest people in the world, coordinated across 100 different nations and co-opting 99% of the world's climatologists. Lol.

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 18:32 | 5732672 P?keh?
P?keh?'s picture

Many surface weather stations undergo minor relocations through their history of observation. Stations may also be subject to changes in instrumentation as measurement technology evolves. Further, the land use/land cover in the vicinity of an observing site may also change with time. Such modifications to an observing site have the potential to alter a thermometer's microclimate exposure characteristics and/or change the bias of measurements, the impact of which can be a systematic shift in the mean level of temperature readings that is unrelated to true climate variations. The process of removing such "non-climatic" artifacts in a climate time series is called homogenization.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ghcnm/v3.php?section=homogeneity_adjustment

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 18:53 | 5732739 Grimaldus
Grimaldus's picture

Why is it progressives are always involved in criminal scams?

Grimaldus

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 22:12 | 5733246 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

They have a weaker concept of property rights.

Sun, 02/01/2015 - 22:28 | 5733291 Jameson18
Jameson18's picture

Just look at their names or the names of the people who finance the reports and you will see that they all come from the same place.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 03:01 | 5733905 trader1
trader1's picture

 

 

Useful idiots out in full effect.  

http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/26/section-7-global-warming-environment-and-energy/

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/09/23/most-americans-believe-in-climate-change-but-give-it-low-priority/

http://www.gallup.com/poll/167879/not-global-warming-serious-threat.aspx

 

CO2 Levels above 400 PPM Threshold for Third Month in a Row

Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas, which helps drive global warming, haven’t been this high in somewhere between 800,000 and 15 million years

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/co2-levels-above-400-ppm-threshold-for-third-month-in-a-row/

 

400ppm cresting at 450ppm (ceteris paribus) implies a warming of 2C to 4C over the next 50 - 100 years which will be disastrous in ecological impact:

http://www.amphilsoc.org/sites/default/files/proceedings/1560404.pdf

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1

http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2241

http://www.wienslab.com/Publications_files/Quintero%26Wiens_Ecol_Lett_2013.pdf

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/abs/ngeo755.html

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23697-up-to-half-of-all-birds-threatened-by-climate-change.html%23.UcH5zhYmhQZ%23.Ud2P4RaQhQY

 

Given that for the last ~ 3,000,000 years the Earth has had >500 ppm CO2, and in the last 200 years we've moved past 400 ppm, do the useful idiots grasp the concept of TIME?

3,000,000 years - > movement of perhaps ~220ppm from 500 -> 280 [includes ice age, rise of homo sapiens, entire changes to global ecosystems, loss of mega fauna and development of entire new species]

200 years -> +120 ppm back to 400ppm [until recently there were people born in the 19th Century still alive, and certainly it's within 3 generations]

Hint: 3,000,000 years ago, the Earth did not support the ecosystems we have today. Want to know how fast ecosystems adapt to environmental changes? Hint: takes more than 200 years. 

 

A mind that can't grasp this simple issue indicates suffering under a Belief Formation, which is difficult to re-program.

For those wondering about record amounts of snow (polar vortex) or droughts in Texas, California, Brazil...

Warmer climate = more water vapor = more snow in colder climes, and less water in hotter climes, because it's gone elsewhere.

Localized weather =! the climate.

Climate is a nonlinear system.

QED. 

 

Failing to react against current events is worrisome; being ignorant of what's coming is going to surprise you.

 

http://www.defense.gov/Releases/Release.aspx?ReleaseID=16976

http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/Appendix%20A%20DHS%2...

 


h/t aurora ex machina 

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 05:10 | 5734051 MEAN BUSINESS
MEAN BUSINESS's picture

read through those aurora ex machina links you put out a few weeks ago. Thank you. And thank you again! Super Bowl 2015? LULZ!!!

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 02:43 | 5737987 trader1
trader1's picture

you're welcome.

 

 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 03:31 | 5738036 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The peanut gallery seems a bit short on non-conformists these days (to either the predominate or counter culture).

The ringing of the echo chamber gives me a headache.  

The discussions and fights around here these days are worse for the absence and non-replacement of so many.

Mon, 02/02/2015 - 13:03 | 5735180 dougie
dougie's picture

Is ZH trying to lose all credibility?  Mr. Booker is another garden variety climate change denialist who shares a primary qualification of most deniers; no scientific background.  If you want to read a scientific comparison of temperature records, not all of which show 2014 to be the hottest year, try this:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/01/thoughts-on-2014-a...

 

Tue, 02/03/2015 - 02:45 | 5737989 trader1
trader1's picture

it's credible that ZH has an agenda, one of being a cynical joke fest...

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 19:01 | 5788144 HughK
HughK's picture

Sorry, ZH climate change deniers, but a majority of you voting in the comment section that climate change isn't real doesn't make your opinions true.

Like the end of the debt supercycle and economic stagnation due to falling net energy, climate change is a very real limit to growth.

Here's a good starting point for y'all:  http://www.skepticalscience.com/fiddling-with-global-warming-conspiracy-...

And click the red arrow all you like, but afterwards, go ahead and have yourselves a little read and get informed.

Sorry if the fact that there are environmental limits creates cognitive dissonance for those of you who believe that libertarianism is a perfect ideology.  I like libertianism too and I certainly don't like big government.  But climate change is real, and so is the fact that 2014 was the warmest year on record.  Facts can be a bitch sometime.  

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!