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GATA And Martin Armstrong Have Gone At It For Nearly 17 Years!

lemetropole's picture




 



A couple of days ago a Café member sent me some of the latest commentary by Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics, formally of Princeton Economics International. As you will read, he continues his rant against "the gold promoters," a rant that seemed more than vaguely familiar.

What an understatement!

The Café opened on September 3, 1998 with the price of gold at $285 and the price of silver at $4.93. The internet as a form of communication was just coming into its own back then and many of the commentators you read about today were nowhere to be found in those days. Martin Armstrong was an exception.

By September 23 of that year he already was made mention of in this column. In 1999 he was brought to Café member’s attention 4 times in headline form and around 30 times overall. All this can be checked out by doing a Café search on Le Menu.

Here you go with one of them…

Gold: Manipulation or Exaggeration?
By Martin A. Armstrong
Copyright 1999 / Princeton Economics International
June 10, 1999

A two-man army calling itself GATA has begun to besiege the media attempting to gain a lot of press on the platform that gold is being "manipulated" by a cartel of investment banks. They constantly point to what they call the huge "carry trade" in gold were there is far more gold sold than exists…

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=304&SearchParam=Martin Armstrong

 

-END-

I thought it might be interesting to get into our differences and bring them your way. However, I soon realized a book could be written on the prevailing material and the fascinating intrigue of it all. So for now, will keep it as simple and short as possible, starting with Martin A’s latest that includes some of his follower’s comments. Normally I edit swearing 99% of the time. However, this is not our commentary and I have left them in to capture the true vitriolic feelings of some of his followers, as a result of what their man has to say…


 

Posted on February 12, 2015 by Martin Armstrong


 http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/12/the-comments-on-gold/ - respond

http://i2.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/GCNYNF-W-2-12-2015.jpg

The comments have been pouring in on gold. To say they are interesting is to put it mildly. It is funny how both the gold promoters and the mainstream press actually respond in the same manner. Both desperately try to ignore the fact that our models just may have been an important advancement in the study of time and how things really function. It does not appear that either are ever really interested in helping anyone or advance one step in the game. They seem to both operate in the same manner to force their way of thing upon everyone else regardless if it is correct 0 they are both only drive by their self-interest.

http://i2.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/GCFOR-W-2-12-2015.jpg

 

The computer picked the gold pop for January targeting the week and the day of the high. You would think people might come to the conclusion that just maybe this model could have stumbled upon something since this is not an opinion. However, it just seems that it is far easier to assume the world is flat than to try to set sail around a sphere they cannot grasp even exists.

http://i2.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/1-Time-All-Connected.jpg

The implication of just the correct forecasts like this on gold go far beyond merely gold. What this demonstrates is that everything is truly connected. That means, if our computer models are correct, then a politician cannot actually run for office proclaiming vote for them and they will change everything. We are all just pieces of an interconnected world. That is the real implications of this forecast in gold. The sooner we realize that what Socrates has accomplished is the revelation that absolutely everything is connected. There is nothing that ever takes place in absolute isolation.

http://i2.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Resisting-Change.jpg

OMG – the most feared of all aspects C H A N G E!

I could have run to a beach and hide from the world. I was not looking to get back into hedge fund management or analysis. I held the 2011 Conference simply because they wanted to make this movie. So I agreed to do a conference. A former employee told me the industry changed. I would be lucky if 25 people would show up. Well we filled the Westin Hotel with just over 300 people and had to turn away over 300. It has been my loyal clients over the many years who have convinced me to come back. These forecasts are NOT my personal OPINION. They are not even my invention. They are the product of my DISCOVERY of time. For that reason only, my goal is to take this system public so that it survives me and from there perhaps knowledge will advance in a new direction. I promised our clients will get the first shot at the IPO. I will keep that promise when it is time.

COMMENT #1:

Hi Martin,
If the gold devotees are sure that you manipulate the gold market (if not also the whole markets and the world and its surroundings), why didn’t they shorted it when you said it is time for a decline to possibly 950$ ? They would have already made a fortune. Unless they shorted it or bought put options and made tons of money but don’t want to acknowledge it.

I bet anything, a pack of chewing gum for example, that they are going to be your first subscribers to the trading signals in november. Of course they will only consider the buy signals and discard the sell signals. But they are going to make money from them and stay hypocrits.

In 1971 (end of the gold standard), the world population was less than 3.5 billions; it is now 7.1 billions and the trend is upward. How is it possible to have enough gold for every country? Let’s suppose the USA adopt a gold standard ALONE (because they are the only ones on Earth who unserstand gold, helped by the gold promoters), then the whole world would be happy to send/sell its gold to Americans and the USA will end up quickly with massive inflation, this same inflation that the gold standard is supposed to eliminate.

Now the gold adorers don’t trust the government in managing the paper money. But it is more arduous to manage money when it is gold, because it is a natural ressources, It is like agriculture: we are never sure in advance of the quantity we are going to obtain. And who is going to manage this? The government! So the gold adorers are the cousins of the government devotees (the keynesians/interventionists).

COMMENT #2: Hey Marty,
I just wanted to say thanks for being the only one who has the balls to take on these scumbag gold promoters. They had me sucked in for a while until I could see something was wrong. So I sold my silver when it was $27 a few years ago.

It was not until I discovered you that I truly understood that selling my silver was the right thing to do.

These pricks make me sick and I chuckle to myself every time you give them shit in your blog.

Keep up the great work mate.
S

COMMENT #3:

The folks who are mad at you or the "manipulators" are completely schitzo. First, they should be upset with themselves, which I am. But then they should be pissed at the gold promoters and I won’t mention any names. I follow these gold sites just to gauge the interest and I will say that the interest

in gold is waning quickly.

Thanks,
TH

COMMENT #4

This gold essay was written when he was in prison.

I think it’s his best gold essay in an unbiased way.

Look at the graph where 1980 is the peak and 2016 is the bottom of gold.

He says ,"The next target happens to be 2016 that lines up with the purchasing power of the dollar. When we look at GOLD, hopefully you are starting to see, this is a very critical market to understand."

COMMENT #5:

I used to be a gold bug, thank you for your blog.

Remember that immature girl in high school, how every little thing that happened to her meant that someone either hated her or was obsessed with her; who thought every teacher who ever gave her a bad grade was being totally unfair and everything good that happened to her was because of how amazing she was? Yeah, we’re that immature high school girl.

COMMENT #6

A great call by Marty. Not only did he pick the week of the high but also the day of the week of the high:

 http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/15/gold-the-january-pop-on-schedule/

and

 http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/22/can-gold-continue-to-rise/

Can’t wait for this deal to go live.

-END-

And yes, Martin A did call the recent top in gold above $1300 and when it would do so. It was the right call, a good one. But, as you also know as highlighted here, most EVERYONE was bearish right then. Only the gold market does what the crowd expects. That said, it does not take away from the call.

Now, since you don’t want to read a book, here are some key points of interest over the years…

*From a Martin Armstrong email to my colleague Chris Powell…

May 14, 1999

Dear Chris:

I understand your frustration that gold has been perhaps the worst investment for the past 20 years. But to argue that it is being manipulated due to large short positions is not justified.

There is no interest in gold at this time and the central banks are all sellers. After they sell their gold, then we will see a bull market. Once those supplies are gone, no one will be able to lean on that supply and your bull market will begin.

I hate to tell you, but gold will drop to under $200 before it turns…

***

As you know now, gold never came close to taking out $200.

From CP’s response to Martin A…

May 14, 1999

Dear Martin:

…And I don't know what other than "manipulation" you can call it when the Bank of England announces its gold sales in advance even as it says it is selling gold because it wants a better return on its assets. If the Bank of England really wanted a better return on its assets, it would not announce its gold sales until they had been completed; it would not do anything to drive down the price of the asset yet to be sold.

Obviously the IMF and Bank of England gold sales have a primarily political purpose, a purpose other than the stated purposes. We believe that this purpose is to manipulate the price of gold, thus to tamper with this traditional gauge of the integrity of currencies.

We also think "manipulation" is fairly applied to the bailout by Wall Street, at the behest of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, of Long-Term Capital Management last summer. That bailout was ADMITTEDLY manipulation; the Fed believed, and the Wall Street investment houses were persuaded, that the free market could not be allowed to work in the ordinary way, which would have meant LTCM's bankruptcy and collapse and with great losses suffered by LTCM's counterparties. So these so- called capitalists were all bailed out under government sponsorship when their casino bets went against them and threatened to take them all down. GATA believes that LTCM and its counterparites had troublesome liabilities related to gold.

Contrary to your suggestion, GATA hasn't argued that central banks should not be allowed to sell their gold. We may not consider that a wise policy, but our objection is a matter of HOW they are handling their gold. Are they, for example, leasing it in circumstances that put its recovery at risk? GATA argues that so much of this gold has been leased, sold, and absorbed by the market that its recovery could prove impossible in a short squeeze when gold's price direction changes, and that many financial institutions are at serious risk because the "gold carry trade" has gone too far. Further, there's some reason to think that the Bank of England's gold sale -- or at least its announcement that it plans to sell its gold -- was meant largely to rescue one of the big shorts in the market, another financial institution that, like LTCM, is deemed "too big to fail."…

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=257&SearchParam=Armstrong

***

The Bank of England’s announcement to sell half their gold was only a week old and the egregious nature of it all attracted more adherents to the GATA camp than any other factor ever.

Martin Armstrong’s time was soon preoccupied with personal issues. However, the cordial, but contentious relationship between GATA and the brilliant Martin Armstrong was an ongoing one…

 

1/15/2000 Bill Murphy - Conversations With Marty Armstrong Before He Was Thrown In Jail

Cafe members:

A week ago today I had a two-hour conversation over the phone with investment guru Martin Armstrong which was, in many ways, quite remarkable. It was only a couple of months ago we were almost at each other's throats about GATA.

For those of you new to this story, Armstrong presided over Princeton Economics International, a renowned investment research firm that was noted for its Japanese fixed-income clients.

Armstrong was invited all over the world as a guest speaker to comment about his views of the markets. To give you some idea of the scope of his firm's worldwide presence, I took the following off the www.princetoneconomics.com web site:

"PEI seminars are held around the world in Tokyo, Osaka, Hong Kong, London, Munich, Los Angeles, Princeton, Vancouver and Edinburgh, with normally annual events held in Beijing, Sydney and selected cities in Southeast Asia.

"All seminars are recorded and transcripts are normally available. Selected seminars are also available on video tape in NTSC or PAL. Audio tapes are available, as well, normally in English but also in Japanese for those held in Japan."

Before I get into the matter, here is the latest to bring you up-to-date about Martin Armstrong:

* * *

 

Armstrong jailed over allegedly missing assets

 

By Tony Hagen
Trenton (N.J.) Times
Saturday, January 15, 2000

NEW YORK -- Commodities guru Martin Armstrong was jailed last night after a federal judge ruled he willfully disobeyed a court order to turn over corporate records and millions in gold and antiquities.

Armstrong, who faces criminal securities fraud charges, was accused of concealing items belonging to Princeton Economics International and Princeton Economics Institute of Carnegie Center in West Windsor, N.J.

Armstrong, the head of the two companies, has pleaded innocent to charges he bilked Japanese investors out of $1 billion, and spent $16 million of their money to acquire gold, rare coins, and art work.

U.S. Magistrate Richard Owen ordered Armstrong held for 18 months or until he divulges the location of the missing assets. Armstrong was taken from the court to New York Metropolitan Correction Center.

Prosecutors said yesterday that Armstrong turned over a portion of the assets but destroyed corporate records they had demanded…

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=375&SearchParam=Armstrong

***

February 11, 2000 - Spot Gold $311 down $5 - Spot Silver $5.29 down 7 cents

…Chris Powell received a letter today from Martin Armstrong. He wrote that the government seized some of the tape recordings he had made describing market manipulations. He asked Chris to get a transcript of his appearance in court Feb. 7, which would have been just a few days ago. He said the transcript "may be of great interest to your members and your cause to unravel the organized crime ring that is controlling the markets."

Chris has contacted GATA's attorney, Merrill Davidoff, to find out if they are connected enough to get the transcript.

Lordy, lordy what are we getting into?…

***

*Chris made attempts to visit Martin A in jail, but was rebuffed by the authorities.

Then, things went quiet as Mr. MA spent more than a decade in jail, which seems outrageous, but he was not a popular man with the authorities. Finally,…

Ex-Adviser Out of Jail After 11 Years, Including 7 for Contempt

 

 

By DealBook

March 15, 2011 8:14 pm March 15, 2011 8:14 pm

Martin A. Armstrong at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York in 2000.

Rick Maiman/Bloomberg News Martin A. Armstrong at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York in 2000.

Martin A. Armstrong, who prosecutors accused of running a $3 billion Ponzi scheme, is finally out of jail after 11 years, including a possible record seven years for contempt of court in a dispute over gold and antiquities.

Mr. Armstrong, a former financial adviser who once ran an investment firm called Princeton Economics International, will be held under house arrest until his federal custody ends in September, a spokesman for the Federal Bureau of Prisons, Chris Burke, told Bloomberg News.

Mr. Burke said Mr. Armstrong would be allowed to go to work and required to check in at a halfway house in the Philadelphia area. He was released last week, according to Bloomberg.

Mr. Armstrong spent seven years behind bars for contempt after he defied a federal judge’s order in January 2000 to turn over to the government about $15 million worth of gold bars, rare coins and antiquities including a bust of Julius Caesar. Normally, people held in contempt by a judge are jailed for no longer than 18 months.

Mr. Armstrong contended he did not have those assets.

As Mr. Armstrong sat in the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan, federal prosecutors tried to build a criminal case against him.

Ultimately, Mr. Armstrong was sentenced to five years in prison in April 2007 after he agreed to plea guilty the year before to one count of conspiracy to hide hundreds of millions of dollars in trading losses.

After seven long years, the judge in the case finally lifted the contempt sanction so Mr. Armstrong could begin his prison term. He received no time off his prison sentence for the time he spent in the Manhattan jail.

-END-

It did not take Mr. Armstrong very long to build quite a following again. What a story!

So, Armstrong is back and GATA is still at it all these years later. The evidence we have uncovered over all this time has bolstered our case 100 times over since those early days, but it won’t make a difference to him, not as stubborn as he is.

Chris mentioned LTCM, the famed hedge fund, whose demise was threatening the financial system at the end of 1998 into 1999. GATA was on their case too, as it was very clear the bullion banks (including the Fed) were coordinating their selling of gold to keep the price below $300 an ounce. Financial institutions were short an enormous amount of gold to finance their business operations and a spike in the price could have been devastating to many of the major financial institutions in the U.S and abroad.

GATA received information that LTCM was short up to 400 tonnes of gold on their books (perhaps for the Bank of Italy, as per Rob Kirby). That position was to be protected at all costs and we made our thoughts on that matter known.

GATA received an affidavit from Eric Rosenfeld, a principal of LTCM, and a letter from their senior counsel Jim Rickards, denying being short all that gold … which is another long story.

Why bring it up? In August of 2011 Jim Rickards was a featured speaker at our Gold Rush 2011 conference at The Savoy Hotel in London. Do you think Jim would have been a speaker at a GATA conference if we were really off base? If anyone knew how right GATA was about the suppression of the gold price, and what it involved, it is him!

So, all these years later Martin Armstrong is back in the limelight and making his own waves again ... and still a gold bear. On the other side of the aisle, Jim Rickards is one of the more vociferous gold bulls around, talking about a gold reset price, etc. And GATA is still plugging away, doing what we can to expose what will eventually be the greatest financial market scandal in U.S. history.

 

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Mon, 02/16/2015 - 02:00 | 5789121 Augustus
Augustus's picture

What else is left to do after holding gold from $1,800 to today's $1,250 but try to highlight someone else who once made a wrong call? 

To the MOON, Alice.  To the MOON.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 01:55 | 5789103 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Now I know what Phil Collins will look like in 100 years.  OUCH.  Bad pic.

On another note, Armstrong is no stranger to the boyz club.  He's in it.  You bet your azz he's got all the inside info on futures patterns and knows what "the plan" is for PM's.

What I struggle with is how can a guy be so smart and have his own propreitary pattern software, yet turn around and then be an admitted klepto?  Who the hell in his right mind, and with the almighty "software" tool that would make you billions (if it is what he claims it to be) in his back pocket, decide to steal assets and think they'd never be caught?

He's either REALLY dumb, or a party to the fraud with a massive ego.

And it's for those two reasons that I don't listen to him, because I can see that he is in the know and is selling a service based on being an insider crony capitalist.  Without futures and rehypothecation taking place, the subscription services for most of these palm-reading frauds in commodities is over.  The futures market is their cover, and without it they have nothing because the flow of tangible assets then is based on trade and fundamentals, not speculation.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 07:14 | 5789336 BigJim
BigJim's picture

 What I struggle with is how can a guy be so smart and have his own propreitary pattern software, yet turn around and then be an admitted klepto? 

Plenty of innocent people have copped a plea deal with US JustUs to avoid spending life in prison for even more egregious crimes they didn't commit either.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 00:07 | 5788938 donpaulo
donpaulo's picture

I see no reason to stop reading either *side* of the issue. At worst its good reading and entertaining, at best some party may be right when all is said and done.

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 23:24 | 5788856 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

 

 

 

Soooooo..... Just spitballing here.....

But I wonder if Martin agreed to STFU regarding manipulation of PM prices as an unwritten condition of his release ( or survival ).

Martin is a smart guy, runs in interesting circles and has significant influence. I am inclined to believe that someone gave him a tap

on the shoulder and a stern warning.

I could be wrong, but the preponderance of the evidence as amassed by GATA, the ongoing refusal to audit the Fed, the

on-video examples of manipulation by Andrew Maguire and the myriad of other shenanigans taking place surrounding Au

and Ag clearly demonstrate something is up.

 

For Martin to be as vitriolic as he is on the topic speaks volumes.

 

KEEP CALM and JUST KEEP STACKING

 

 

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 16:21 | 5791022 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"For Martin to be as vitriolic as he is on the topic speaks volumes."

 

The real vitriol is coming from those claiming gold is being manipulated down, when they think it should be going up.  Armstrong is responding to vitriol directed at him, because they don't like what they are hearing.

To the gold promoters, there is never a bad time to buy gold.  They need to sell it to some one.  There is never a bad time to buy a house.  Realtors need to sell to some one.

Hyperinflationists have been promoting a crash in the dollar for how long, now? With fiat, deflation couldn't happen.  Yet all the talk now is about deflation, after 6 years of money pumping by Bernanke. 

Commodity prices drop during deflationary pressure and gold is a commodity.  Baltic Dry just hit another new low.

The middle class is being deflated, yet people think the price of gold should skyrocket.

Armstrong doesn't say that gold is going to go down for the next 20 years.  He says it is just not it's time, yet.

 

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 01:45 | 5789097 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

Everyone knows that if someone dumps a lot of anything, the price will drop. Most of these comments read as though Armstrong denies that, he doesn't. He argues that efforts to manipulate market trends are always futile, thats all. If Apple has X value and Goldman sells a giant block, it will drive the price down, but does it affect the value of the asset, and in a way that the market can't see through? No. Gold is lethargic because other vehicles seem poised to return more money at present, period. That may change, but for now it is a fact.

I think his 'vitriol' such as it is can be explained by the average profile of his readers: outsiders who probably have some experience with gold. Most have spent the last ten years convinced that money printing will bid up gold and lead to hyperinflation. That's clearly BS and he explains why.

Had many writing here just played his three major themes over the last year (euro down, gold down, dollar up) just a bit of leverage would have made them a nice pile of money. Cut him some slack by at least telling us how his analysis is wrong on market direction. That's what matters to investors, most of the rest of the comments here are a lot of useless moaning.

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 22:58 | 5788800 MountainMan
MountainMan's picture

Enough already. Like gold is the only fucking asset class to invest in. Pick another instrument and to hell with all this GATA shit.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 08:10 | 5789394 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

Mountain Man? Sounds more like a "modern man".

Yes, there are other good hard assets, but please don't refer to this stuff as "GATA shit". They have been doing yoeman's work to speak truth to power in the most basic way. I'm pretty sure You'll thank God for them one day.

ANd get a clue about why Au is so important to the current financial circus.

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 23:09 | 5788828 WhackoWarner
WhackoWarner's picture

So farmland so as not to be poisoned.

Energy self-sufficiency.

Family.

Virtue.

Moral behaviour?

Toilet paper and bought -off politicians?  Banks that used to pay for capital but now rape it?

 

With all due respect sir.  What asset do you consider to be honest?

 

Some asset that can help your children?  I double dare you tell me?

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 00:31 | 5788978 MountainMan
MountainMan's picture

To start with how about some good old dividend paying utility stocks...a good piece of real estate never hurts either. Gold leaves you at the mercy of the so called cartel.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 01:21 | 5789060 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

but utilities are at the mercy of the debtleveragedmatrix

subject to LBO's and all the rest of it, they too will get hammered when we are forced to return to old school prudence. You think Enron was an exception? You dont think every other utility in the last 15 years has become as bad or worse -forced to become so by keeping-up-with-he- corporate-joneses-competitivity ?

Im telling you right now, any utility that failed to become another Enron would have been gobbled up by mergers and acquisitions by such unethical monstrousities who were willing to participate in the rehypothecated leveraged madness of our day

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 22:56 | 5788795 abenomicstimebomb
abenomicstimebomb's picture

The proof is in the pudding.  Martin Armstrong's calls on gold have been spot on lately.  He called the high for this year in mid Janauary 2015.  He calls for a low either 4Q 2015 or 1Q2016.  GATA has been a relentless pumper of gold since inception.  Anyone listening to them would have lost the opportuinty to sell at 1900+ in 2011.  On the flip side, gold had a remarkable run prior so GATA was correct for most of the 2000s.  

Just because Armstrong is bearish gold short term doesn't make him an enemy of gold.  He just sees gold as any another asset, and just as any other asset prices will move UP and DOWN.  Amrstrong believes  gold has not yet hit bottom, and until then it is a sell. I listened to his advice and it has saved my ass so far.  But I also see GATA's point of view as well and look to buy in again, hopefully at a lower price. I do believe when the shit hits the fan gold will be the last man standing.  Better hold it in smaller denominated coins and definitely not at a bank.  

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 08:17 | 5789400 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

And that's why I'm very nuetral on MA. Despite his looney/questionable background and past, his recent calls have been quite good.

But to treat gold like any other asset is exactly what the Central banks want you to think - just another asset/commodity that can securitized on paper. With that wedged into your brain, manipulations can be hidden as "market action" and then AU (and AG) can be trivialized with options and derivatives....and disappear into the financial horizon like plywood did (any of you remember plywood futures?). This would then leave fiat to safely do whatever its masters want.

GOLD is not a financial "asset". It is money, a store of value, and an extinguisher of debt. "Gold has nothing to say, but it tells no lies."

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 00:31 | 5788977 pachanguero
pachanguero's picture

I think he makes up so much I find it hard to take him seriously......but I read him anyway just to see how the crazy fucker is thinking because sometimes he gets it right.....

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 22:02 | 5788627 essence
essence's picture

Armstrong's blog is a daily read of mine, but then so are a host of sites.

Interestingly enough, in one of his posts a month or so ago, he ADMITTED, that he doesn't follow others. In fact, if I interpreted him correctly, he essentially admitted that he does not get on the Internet and educate himself about current  thoughts and views concerning the world (he said he was too busy).

Apparently he is completely ignorant of persons such as FOFOA.  He seems to categorically label all PM holders as "Gold Bugs" and seems to think they are all underwater and disgruntled. He seems to believe that all PM holders are convinced that Gold/Silver convertibility is necessary, that any reintroduction of Gold into the monetary/financial  system  automatically equates to gold convertibility (i.e. fiat to physical on demand exchange), that 'gold backing' isn't in any way possible without actual convertibility for the man in the street. He seems oblivious that something such as a Gold trade note could exist, that Gold collateral could be used, that digital Gold (i.e. digital transactions of Gold held by an agreed upon 3rd party used as an intermediary) is possible.

Martin  is also in total denial that anything such as a 'cabal' or 'elite' even exists. Instead, according to him, it's just those petty government bureaucrats that are responsible for misguided governmental policies. And of course, Martin denies that PM manipulation exists (note to all, even dubious source Jiim Rickards NOW admits PM manipulation is obvious).

All in all, Martin Armstrong is one strange bird. A lot of knowledge & experience, and yet so filled with hubris.
And let's not forget. He runs a subscription service and claims it's all based on cycles and that he is the sole keymaster of cycles. Surely a conflict of interest with admitting that such a thing as extreme market manipulation exists.
What's that quote .... ah yes ....

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it."

 

 

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 22:39 | 5788742 WhackoWarner
WhackoWarner's picture

Martin is in total rip-off.  He can baffle-gab to rival the best.

 

Marty is out for Number one.  Ignores anything beyond his own models.  Won't discuss with "lower insight".  Ah poor Martin,

 

I would point out the fact that GATA has been proved factually correct and Marty is running on dubious models.  NOW why did Marty not give up his gold???????  Armstrong give it a rest.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 01:26 | 5789069 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 22:15 | 5788676 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Exactly. How can he be taken seriously when he ignores the 800 lb gorillas like JPM and HSBC who attack and flood the market with millions of ounces of paper gold and silver that do not exist in the real world.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 13:18 | 5790318 Payne
Payne's picture

Asset managers hate Gold bugs.  They do not generate commissions.  Simple as that.   

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 22:47 | 5788761 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

I think his position on gold manipulation is more nuanced than that, but that he's playing ignorant for some (suspicious) reason.  The way I read his thesis is that the commercial bullion banks aren't going to fight to tape endlessly at a loss - which is correct and which makes certain people in the gold manipulation community look like raving lunatics.  At the same time, it is possible to fight the tape and profit in the process.  I can forgive some gold bugs for their their ignorance and lack of trading sophistication, but Armstrong is neither ignorant nor unsophisticated when it comes to trading - so why help the 800lb gorilla?  It's not like he doesn't have a bone to pick with the NY Banks (and Courts)... On the flip side, bucket shops and boiler rooms writing borderline fake analysis to pump and dump junior miners at a high cost to the entrepreneurs (and investors) is as old as the US gold mining industry itself - it would be nice if the industry had other financing options, or the SEC would crack down on those manipulators, since they do have an interest in suppressing the gold price, regardless of their (non-)commitment to honest markets.

As to the raving lunatics (from the last time I posted in a Au/JPY correlation thread) - You can't tell me Armstrong couldn't explain how to profit off a highly correlated hedge, regardless of market direction.. After all the guy recommends almost as many exotic order types as certain dark pools offer to quants... Then again you have to be rather headstrong to pull seven years for contempt, so why is GATA picking a fight that they will lose?  Perhaps gold just makes people... FUCKING CRAZY!

 

To the contrary there is a great mystery.  

Lot's of people like to hurl allegations of conspiracy that rely on the existence and utility of the Magic Money Tree, even though they claim the MMT is bullocks and they are advocates of hard money.  It doesn't work both ways. 

Even the CIA has to balance the books of the ESF if it dips its fingers that cookie jar.  The closest thing to a bottomless pit balance sheet exists at the DoD, whose "clients" generally require payment in specie (Au or Pb) and we found out what the limits of that bottomless pit actually were on September 10, 2001.  And when you drag in private sector banksters, not only do the books have to balance, but you have to compensate both the shareholders and bonus pool.  So the mystery is this:

Step 1) short gold (in large quantities, while the Chinese are at lunch and you get the most bang/price movement for each paper buck)

Step 2) ???

Step 3) ???

Step 4) PROFIT!

Since the people doing this are professionals, they are hedging their short gold positions (step 2) before exiting their trades (step 3).  Since JPY has an obscene correlation to gold during the period of paper dumping in question and trades in volume at the hours in question,  it is an ideal market to hedge in.  If they hedge this way, then their net exposure is (while the trade is open) isnot short x billion in gold (notional) it is an infinitesimal fraction of that, if it is even net short.  The PROFIT! is also less, but for each billion deployed 100bps of intra-day gain is almost $30K into the hookers and blow petty cash/bonus pool.  

Being a bankster isn't that complicated, one employs spread arithmetic to achieve profit.  But yet, very few mere mortals seem to understand the classical mechanics dictating and constraining actions in the parallel bankster universe.

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 22:05 | 5788609 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Good old Marty still defending the paper humping banksters and assorted criminals who dominate the fraud ridden SEC, CFTC, COMEX, and other agencies. Armstrong couldn't carry Chris Powells jockstrap on this subject. The guy is a spectacular assclown on gold and silver issues.

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 22:41 | 5788750 WhackoWarner
WhackoWarner's picture

A well he has a lot of leg-humping to do after his faux pas.  POOR POOR marty has to kiss ass.

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 21:51 | 5788605 TradingTroll
TradingTroll's picture

Its not clear the point of the article. Weak ending. Yeah that Martin Armstrong.  But let's talk about Jim Rickards.i got the s3 se that despite Martin's track record of successful calls, the writer likes Jim R as he's a gold bug. I just finished his book Death of Money ( published 2014) where he heaps praise on the Euro declaring their problems fixed. No thanks.  I'll follow that criminal Martin's calls. Between his calls to short copper, oil and the Euro on Jan 1/15 I had three leveraged positions that returned 500%+ last month. In comparison Jim Rickards.i hasn't done anything notable at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 22:57 | 5788797 WhackoWarner
WhackoWarner's picture

I would suggest that this synopsis by GATA is not meant to have any ending/conclusion,  Meant for the reader to think.

 

I do think upon occasion

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 23:02 | 5788813 WhackoWarner
WhackoWarner's picture

And haviing read Marty's jail papers and freedom papers?

I conclude he is oppotunistic (which put him in the slammer)  and even mr so now (as he must make up for lost time on making money).  Nothing to see here.  Guy is a Madoff with more stats,

 

Marty?  How come you would not give up your gold, hey Marty?

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 22:00 | 5788635 weburke
weburke's picture

gold price turned after 12 european central banks, including england, said they were not going to loan gold after 10 more years. That was in august or maybe sept 98 i believe, and at the usagold forum, which had stellar posters for a while, we all knew the bottom was right then, and it was. If you want precious metal investing advice, Barrons has called it right at each juncture. To date. gata wishes there was a god of math. 

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 21:39 | 5788571 lordbyroniv
lordbyroniv's picture

Armstrong took cock while in prison

 

It messes up ur mind to have hairy dick up ur ass

 

one would think

 

no?

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 00:44 | 5788993 oddjob
oddjob's picture

bi-curious much?

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 22:53 | 5788783 cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

You would probably know from experience.

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 21:19 | 5788501 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Armstrong's conflations of gold & silver with 'commodities' are specious, as is his ignoring of past governmental manipulations of PM prices. What was the US inflation during Bretton Woods but a giant conspiracy to keep down the dollar price of gold? I enjoy reading his blog - he brings up a lot of interesting facts from history - but on this subject he's deluded - or deceiving.

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 22:29 | 5788715 WhackoWarner
WhackoWarner's picture

"Mr. Armstrong spent seven years behind bars for contempt after he defied a federal judge’s order in January 2000 to turn over to the government about $15 million worth of gold bars, rare coins and antiquities including a bust of Julius Caesar. Normally, people held in contempt by a judge are jailed for no longer than 18 months."

 

So Martin would not give up the gold?  OK.

 

The rest is ego and an interrupted retirement plan.

 

My thought on Mr. M has always been; dispite his intelligence his self-servng ego blinds him.  He is out for number 1 and will model the theory to fit,

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 22:54 | 5788789 cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

I've actually corresponded with him.  He's a few bricks short of a load.  I havd little respect for him these days.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 07:20 | 5789341 BigJim
BigJim's picture

He had the shit beaten out of him in prison. And spending so long in the slammer for crimes he didn't commit probably didn't do his brain much good either.

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 21:26 | 5788524 BigJim
BigJim's picture

What gets me is that he says all manipulations of 'commodities' come to an end because you can't stop supply and demand from eventually doing their thing. What he ignores is that i) the stock:flow of PMs are unlike any commodity, as is the amount in government hands; and ii) one of the primary drivers for demand is the perception of PM's safe-haven status.

If someone manipulates the price of corn downwards, that won't make people demand it less; in fact, the opposite, demand will go up, making the manipulation harder to sustain. But if you can crash PM prices at times you'd expect prices to rise, or even just induce huge volatility, you effect the underlying demand itself. If people distrust PM's ability to offer insurance in bad times, then fewer people will buy it. I believe THAT is the primary reason for these manipulations; nothing short of permanently changing the psychology of investors worldwide. The temporary suppression of prices is just icing on the cake.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 13:13 | 5790292 Payne
Payne's picture

Armstrong either stole or lost a hugh amount of money AUM.  He has not repaid the money.  So he starts from a foundation of" I am not responsible".  He is brilliant but a narcicist.

Rickards appears to be a propaganda tool of the CIA.  

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 07:24 | 5789343 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Furthermore, if PM prices are being manipulated downwards, the manipulators will almost certainly be using technical analysis to determine timing and quantities to maximise the impact on the psyches of other market participants. Thus Armstrong's 'miracululous' ability to predict where prices are going... using technical analysis. Which - in the end - is all his 'cycles' model boils down to.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 04:00 | 5789209 ebear
ebear's picture

One thing I don't see discussed much is the effect the miners have on price.

Consider:

You have 10 million oz all scoped and ready to go.  You know your cost of prooduction, but what you don't know is the future price of gold.  Obviously you sell forward some amount in line with your production schedule, which can run to years.  This means you are a constant seller of forward gold, and in a rising price scenario with new mines coming on line, the selling will increase as the price.  So, how much downward pressure does this create?   Enough to build a manipulation theory around, or is it an insignificant part of the whole?  I have no idea, it just occurs to me as a factor worth considering.

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 01:56 | 5789114 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yes.  Precious metals are tangible value in a world of increasingly intangible value and values.

What are the alternatives?  Stocks?  Real estate?  Treasuries?  Cash?

You'd have to be a dope to not have some tangible PM's in your stash.

Sun, 02/15/2015 - 22:00 | 5788634 philipat
philipat's picture

Anyone who insists on calling 3Q instead 0.75 must indeed be a pretentious prick?

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 07:55 | 5789363 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The Café opened on September 3, 1998 with the price of gold at $285 and the price of silver at $4.93.

 

Bought gold at $273.....all those years ago.

 

You know who made fun of me?

 

Everyone.

 

 

I got to know Martin.......how much gold did you get away with? Was it worth it?

Mon, 02/16/2015 - 14:21 | 5789982 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

Armstrong doesn't deal with the distortion of trading digital/virtual gold on London's LBMA (that sets the global gold and silver benchmark) and how investors holding massive unbacked positions of gold (and especiallly silver) distort the market.  They are holding nothing (the LBMA says they are merely unsecured creditors) and believe they are hedged by holding these virtual positions.

It would be interesting for Marti to explain in detail how a 3.5 billion to 5.0 billion oz of silver open interest can exist in London with all of the world's above ground refined silver stockpiles (including ETFs at 0.9 billion oz.) and mine supply at 0.8 billion oz p.a.  How does Marti propose to conjure the silver (and the 400M to 600M oz of gold open interest):

http://www.safehaven.com/article/36534/lbma-data-points-to-gold-and-silver-default

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2871836-lbma-data-points-to-gold-and-silver-default-video

also,

http://www.safehaven.com/article/36659/greshams-law-predicts-the-lbmas-end

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2909656-greshams-law-predicts-the-lbmas-end-video

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