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Is Deutsche Bank The Next Lehman?
Looking back at the Lehman Brothers collapse of 2008, it’s amazing how quickly it all happened. In hindsight there were a few early-warning signs, but the true scale of the disaster publicly unfolded only in the final moments before it became apparent that Lehman was doomed.
First, for purposes of drawing a parallel, let’s re-cap the events of 2007-2008:
There were few early indicators of Lehman’s plight. Insiders however, were well aware: In late 2007, Goldman Sachs placed a massive proprietary bet against Lehman which would be known internally as the “Big Short”. (It’s a bet that would later profit from during the crisis).
In the summer 2007 subprime loans were beginning to perform poorly in the marketplace. By August of 2007, the commercial paper market saw liquidity evaporating quickly and funding for all types of asset-backed security was drying up.
But still — even in late 2007, there was little public indication that Lehman was circling the drain.
Probably the first public indication that things were heading downhill for Lehman wasn’t until June 9th, 2008, when Fitch Ratings cut Lehman’s rating to AA-minus, outlook negative. (ironically, 7 years to the day before S&P would cut DB)
The “negative outlook” indicates that another further downgrade is likely. In this particular case, it was the understatement of all time.
A mere 3 months later, in the course of just one week, Lehman would announce a major loss and file for bankruptcy.
And the rest is history.
Could this happen to Deutsche Bank?
First, we must state the obvious: If Deutsche Bank is the next Lehman, we will not know until events are moving at an uncontrollable and accelerating speed. The nature of all fractional-reserve banks — who are by definition bankrupt at all times – is to project an aura of stability until that illusion has already begun to implode.
By the time we are aware of a crisis – if one is in the offing — it will already be a roaring blaze by the time it is known publicly. It is by now well-established that truth is the first casualty of all banking crises. There will be little in the way of early warnings. To that end, we begin connecting the dots:
Here’s a re-cap of what’s happened at Deutsche Bank over the past 15 months:
- In April of 2014, Deutsche Bank was forced to raise an additional 1.5 Billion of Tier 1 capital to support it’s capital structure. Why?
- 1 month later in May of 2014, the scramble for liquidity continued as DB announced the selling of 8 billion euros worth of stock – at up to a 30% discount. Why again? It was a move which raised eyebrows across the financial media. The calm outward image of Deutsche Bank did not seem to reflect their rushed efforts to raise liquidity. Something was decidedly rotten behind the curtain.
- Fast forwarding to March of this year: Deutsche Bank fails the banking industry’s “stress tests” and is given a stern warning to shore up it’s capital structure.
- In April, Deutsche Bank confirms it’s agreement to a joint settlement with the US and UK regarding the manipulation of LIBOR. The bank is saddled with a massive $2.1 billion payment to the DOJ. (Still, a small fraction of their winnings from the crime).
- In May, one of Deutsche Bank’s CEOs, Anshu Jain is given an enormous amount of new authority by the board of directors. We guess that this is a “crisis move”. In times of crisis the power of the executive is often increased.
- June 5: Greece misses it’s payment to the IMF. The risk of default across all of it’s debt is now considered acute. This has massive implications for Deutsche Bank.
- June 6/7: (A Saturday/Sunday, and immediately following Greece’s missed payment to the IMF) Deutsche Bank’s two CEO’s announce their surprise departure from the company. (Just one month after Jain is given his new expanded powers). Anshu Jain will step down first at the end of June. Jürgen Fitschen will step down next May.
- June 9: S&P lowers the rating of Deutsche Bank to BBB+ Just three notches above “junk”. (Incidentally, BBB+ is even lower than Lehman’s downgrade – which preceded it’s collapse by just 3 months)
And that’s where we are now. How bad is it? We don’t know because we won’t be permitted to know. But these are not the moves of a healthy company.
Jürgen Fitschen will step down May 2016. Jain will step down at the end of this month.
How exposed is Deutsche Bank?
The trouble for Deutsche Bank is that it’s conventional retail banking operations are not a significant profit center. To maintain margins, Deutsche Bank has been forced into riskier asset classes than it’s peers.
Deutsche Bank is sitting on more than $75 Trillion in derivatives bets — an amount that is twenty times greater than German GDP. Their derivatives exposure dwarfs even JP Morgan’s exposure – by a staggering $5 trillion.
With that kind of exposure, relatively small moves can precipitate catastrophic losses. Again, we must note that Greece just missed it’s payment to the IMF – and further defaults are most certainly not beyond the realm of possibility.
Not good.
And if the dominos were not adequately stacked already, there is one final domino which perfects the setup.
Meet Tom Humphrey. He heads up Deutsche Bank’s Investment Banking operations on Wall Street.
He was also head of fixed income at Lehman.
Prior history.
History never repeats. But it does rhyme. In market terms, it tends to rhyme just about every 7 years.
* * *
For more read the Zero Hedge piece from April 2014: The Elephant In The Room: Deutsche Bank's $75 Trillion In Derivatives Is 20 Times Greater Than German GDP
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All it will take, like last time, is for the London office of Goldman to say...
"dont trade with them, their paper is no good."
kaboom
No, it's not the next Lehman because it's "Systemically Important", meaning that all capital controls / deposit confiscation / creditor fuck-overs will be imposed to save it. "For the Taxpayers".
DB is the largest and most important bank in europe. No fucking way they let it collapse. If DB collapsed, the end of the world would be here.
The calendar in my kitchen doesn't go past December, fwiw.
Easterners use a different calendar, fwiw.
They meet up with Saint Nick a hell of a lot sooner than we do too.
That is true. The Greek Orthodox Church already had their Christmas for THIS YEAR...
That happened on January 7th.
That is a hell of a lot sooner than December 25. I agree.
http://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/common/orthodox-christmas-day
That was Christmas for last year in the Julian calendar, which the orthodoxies stick to.
By the same token, the Russian "October Revolution" took place in November of the modern Gregorian calendar.
Bear Sterns and Lehman were two of the worlds largest banks when they collaspsed. Just because a bank is big doesn't mean they aren't going bankrupt.
But do we have "tanks in the streets"?
DB will be seized by GER FinMin
they might have no choice. a derivative is a cruel and demanding bitch.
Got to keep it alove until 100% of the new money raised to shore up equity is taken by DOJ in settlements.
if it does happen, I imagine Draghi, Merkel & co will get on the telly and remind us all to be good little Europeans and hand over our bank accounts.....or else.
Excellent -especially the last bit! In fact come to think of it, Greece should go to Deutsche Bank and get the money (through one of those "special purpose vehicles" - you know what I'm talking about).
Ask the accountants....IF any are left.
Quite a few "middle" managers have already left. Just lucky timing? Or did they know the accounting folks?
Blow and whores should fix everything....until the morning.
Anyone see the Hanover box chick walking the streets selling her ass?
when the serfs have had enough and the revolt begins - in other words, decades
When Merkel stops sanctions on Russia
Great post but fix the punctuation! It's "its" when it's possessive.
Exactly. And how about this:
Probably the first public indication that things were heading downhill for Lehman wasn’t until June 9th, 2008, when Fitch Ratings cut Lehman’s rating to AA-minus, outlook negative. (ironically, 7 years to the day before S&P would cut DB)
There is no irony in that. It's simply a coincidence--a simple coincidence with absolutely no meaning. So why even point it out?
DB then HSBC - can't wait!
Beware of underhand Hun-tricks.
Since Deutsche (tm) - mine
So just for someone who is not as well informed in this matter. Why is DB specifically the main bank which would suffer. Last time Greece was close to an exit many were talking about French banks and others? Just curious not questioning the article...
It's not that they're the only ones who would suffer, it's that they have the largest OTC derivatives exposure in the world. JPM is "only" at somewhere around $65 or $70 trillion.
Last time French banks were particularly exposed to greek paper... since then, it has been transfered to the "institutions", so the risk is now for the EU taxpayers. Re DB now, I guess it's their derivatives linked to rates that might cause problems. Nevertheless, the chronology of events show something is going on behind the scene...
Thanks for the explanation to both of you!
That global stall thing.
Some folks say that Goldman Sachs is the vampire that lives off other vampires.
In which case, the answer ye seek may lay in how Godless Sacks, The One Bank, is facing DB.
One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them,
One Ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind them
In the Land of Goldman where the Shadows lie.
Who is the GS stooge inside DB?
Who's the stooge?
Uhm, someone with a German sounding last name, but isn't catholic or protestant?
You have uncovered the secret phrase!
lol. Once Cramer gives it his seal of approval you can stick a fork in it.
"Don't move your money from Bear. That's just silly"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9EbPxTm5_s
The actual producers are the only ones that will ever wake up. No there are not very many of them left. But the good news is they are the only ones who actualy matter.
Very interesting!
Europe is both blistering at the perphery and roten at the core (With DB and possible others). The best they could do is to the calendar.
Who's the tart on the right and why isn't some dude carrying her box for her?
Maybe muscles in the front is carrying two of her boxes.
I'll carry her box.... it's an attractive box. If you look close enough you can make out a little camel toe.
Bank Holiday on Monday in Greece?
Maybe Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday as well!!
Just think how big this bailout will need to be. The scale of it is mind numbing.
As George Bush would say...."This sucker's going down."
Cant wait for Wall St Bankstas to start jumping out of buildings
Here's a wardrobe suggestion for Alexis Tsipras' next meeting in Brussels: A dirty and torn Deutsche Bank Tee shirt. Here's a logo idea:
http://www.toonpool.com/user/59028/files/deutsche_bank_1917135.jpg
Outstanding article of comparison !
DB Aufsichtsratsvorsitzender is Paul Achleitner who tried with J C Flowers when Achleitner was CFO of Allianz to buy AIG. Achleitner bought Dresdner Bank for Allianz and then offloaded the carcass onto Commerzbank which needed a 25% nationalisation to stay afloat after 2008 and is barely profitable today.
Achleitner is ex-Goldman and ex-Bain and it is his strategy that Jain was implementing. The whole of DB will go off a cliff and take down London, Tokyo and NYC but probably not Frankfurt
well.
db and stock exchange are technically deeply "interwoven",
will be a rupture for frankfurt
Commerzbank are STILL trying to unravel the jigsaw of SIV and CDS positions that Dresdner London parked in Dublin.
Deutche London has a history of spectacular equity derivative book blow ups. The can carirers mostly end up well looked after at JPM London and NY, they certainly have never done anything `wrong` in the eyes of the regulators.
The idea that Deutche is the AIG type holder of the bag has some credibillity.
The original architects of the DB `investment bank` were the partners of Morgan Grenfell which Deutche aquired in 1990. DB has not been the same since.
Maybe that's why HSBC et. al are firing their staff?
The EuroZone is Europe's Subprime
FUCK YOU, DEUTSCHE BANK AND LEHMAN!!! BASTARDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
greedy-fingers chance to steal some money?
i will be there
later they will say "no one could see this coming"
and blame someone else
and change some laws (to their profits)
Questions for next year.....
If Ukraine had gone well....
Would the looting of Ukraine assets had saved Deutch bank?
Or just bought a lil more time before bankruptcy?
Direct Connection US sub-prime debt-------> EU Ukraine war
They can't just print paper to cover up their losses in funding Mexican and Muslim invasion.
Ukraine war is all about sub-prime debt, look at the warmongers, all FNM FRE FHA veterans, not military veterans.
Bush crime legacy <How do I type a swastica?>
I have found in life that when a question is posed such as this, the answer is invariably yes.
Has Jamie Dimon started the rumor that Deutsche Bank is "not money good" yet?
Zero Hedge from 2013-03-03: Did JPM's CIO Intentionally Start The Margin Call Avalanche That Crushed Lehman?
Oh thank god now we can say "SINCE Deutsche Bank" and stop saying since Lehman.
FXCM and the rest are telling traders to go Long EUR/USD.Don't think I'll be taking the suckers' bet.
Jürgen Fitschen Jamie Gorelick trilateral Commission
BTW Jamie was on the SLM board from 2002-2010
Hey Tyler, I'd like to see an inforgraphic comparing Lehman size to DB size, "this time is different" DB is what 5000% larger?
This is why Diesel-Bloom says 'NEIN!' to Tsipras'
non-compliance.....He knows if Greece defaults, Douche-Bank implodes like a Collapsar.
40% haircut on Greek debt.
3rd bailout which may or may not help bring their economy back from the dead
In a nutshell, it is a complete desaster one way or another
No matter which doctor they're going to see. That medicine is bitter and the subsequent treatments are desastrous.
But.. before they can put Humpty Dumpty back together again, they actually have to let Humpty Dumpty fall off that wall.
Right now they're just trying to hold HD on that wall to prevent the fall. Ok, they might even have a few cushions laying on the ground.
Humpthy Dumpty got on that wall by himself, then he got too fat and he is either allowed to fall or the wall will collapse under Humpty's weight.
Easier to put HD on a diet after the fall than trying to mend the entire wall.
Ya know the banksters are looking at this like a mega jackpot. Remember how they got paid 100% on CDS ? They might be thinking they could get paid on the derivetives 100% also.
Think of it as an infinite theft. I know, crack head logic right.
How much was each individual on the Executive Committee as well as each individual on DB's Board of Directors paid over the last 8 to 10 years? Yearly total income for each person would shed some light on who benefited the most by running the business and the shareholders into the ground
We will come rejoicing bringing in the thieves.
I stand ready to btfd. Credit card at hand.
I'm the type of man that doesn't like to see innocent people ever get hurt....but MAN I WANT TO SEE THE FACES ON THESE MOTHERFUCKER BANKERS WHEN THIS SHIT BLOWS THE FUCK UP!!!!!!!
so the financial crises is not over, and the regulators at the reserve banks allow risk to transfer to soveriegns. at the bottom of the swirling brown water is the federal reserve. stuck in the flow unable to surface for air until all the water has left the bowl then it will finALLY BE SUCKED DOWN BY THE VACUM AND DISSOLVE IN THE SEPTIC TANK
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/a-derivatives-bomb-exploded-within...
<poof>
It is not Lehman because it will be bailed out at any cost.
^this. congrats. i scrolled through all the comments for the first person to say that.
Then Weimar amigo!
Does anyone has the Q1 ledger spreadsheet?
HSBC has been on the radar for the last 48 hours. Let’s see how this plays out.
Deutsche-Bank-Rivale baut bis zu 50.000 Stellen ab
Bulletin for 2010 |BIS
http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs165/deutschebankliq.pdf
She came from Greece, she a had a thirst for knowledge, she studied sculpture at St Martins college, thats where I caught her eye.
She told me that her dad was loaded, so I said in that case I'll have another coca cola, she said fine, and then in thirty seconds time, she said, I wanna live like common people, I wanna do what ever common people do, I want to sleep with common people, I want to sleep with common people like you, what else could I do? I said, al see what I can do.
You'll never live like common people, you'll never do what ever common people do, never fail like common people, you'll never watch your life slide out of view, while you dance and drink and screw, because theres nothing else to do...
You will, whether you like the cunt or not.
Pulp, Common People, Motiv8 mix, On the CD Inthemix96.
Do not forget that we the people dont. You might want to remember that...
;-)
This reminds me of a white woman portraying to be black while working for the NAACP. She is a wigger.
Wigger Wigger
Only in Banking, Government, and receiving Welfare can you be a complete and total failure and still profit from your incompetence.
What if both Greece and Ukraine both defaulted totally at once? Greek and Ukraine bonds are all over the EU banking system. DB is probably chocked full of these shit bonds [bomds]!
Yep, I think a rabbit will be pulled out of the hat to aim for September 23, 2015, Day of Atonement 2015.
The photo that introduces this story is instructive when it comes to investment banks. The photo shown is two Lehman employees clearing out with their boxes. Jobs gone. Notice they are both way up the scale on the looks chart? Woman and Man both, probably owe their jobs to three things. Their Connections, their University and their looks. Without one of these big three, I doubt they would ever have landed such high level jobs. I was once down at Canarey Warf in East London. Center to UK banking, bnext to the City itself. Watching the high power executives and project mangers having their lunches at fancy Thames side restaurants up river, I could not help but notice not one ugly face! The women all seemed 28-38 years old, the men all seemed 30-45 years old. Each one very good looking by any standard. Also I noticed NO Short people at all, nearly every one of these upper level bankers was tall, 5'9" at lower end for women. 6' for men.
Obviously, the intelligence to investment bank is not restricted to tall handsome or beautiful people. I think that this must be so just on the face of it. We are left to wonder WHY looks and height play so important a role in upper level investment banking. Reminds me of two Bankers with briefcases running by me in Victoria Station to catch a commuter train home, one white, one black. Each one towered over me at 5' 9". perhaps they both were 6' 3". 30 years old, both handsome.
I really believe there is a bias for height and looks, plus the perfect age 28-38 for advancement to high level postions. The only friends I have in upper level RBS banking are both over 6'. Just over 30 years old, and by any standards very good looking men. Seems to just ALWAYS be so.
Not lloyd
Yes, the people who hold Senior Management positions at any large bank need to be tall and good looking. This is a tried and true advertising technique. They inspire confidence and project the image that the bank is in good, confident hands. Have you ever seen ugly short people in the commercial selling Land Rovers? Youthful execs to steer the company thru troubled times, etc.
But these are not people playing poker late at night who can't stop until they've lost their pocket money. These are the people whos' actions will bring down a bank or two that are TBTF. People under the age of 50 probably don't remember sitting spellbound in front of the TV watching the government of Romania crumble in about 3 days.
For those who missed it, the all powerful Dictator (president for life) and his wife the Deputy Prime Minister finally went too far. They were the Ceausescus. The rank and file army immediately switched sides and joined the protestors. And the protests were country-wide like we just saw in Ukraine. So these two criminals went on the run on Dec 22, 1989. Even the hated and effective secret police, the Securitate were suddenly powerless. These guys were among the worst in modern Europe. They would compare favorably with the Stasi or Gestapo. The two C's were captured on Dec 22, tried for 'abuse of power to execute military actions against the people of Romania' AND 'damage to the national economy'. Convicted on all charges and immediately executed three days later on Christmas Day. I recall that the people had finally had enough. They broke into the Securitate headquarters, read the secret files and went after these guys with knives, pitchforks and shotguns. They 'avenged family members imprisoned and killed unfairly'. This happened only 26 years ago, right around the time that the EU came to be. Those two Imperial Dictators and their feared secret police thought they had those 'sheeple' well under their collective heel. If the US ever goes down like this, the ones who think they are beyond the law may very quickly learn otherwise.
Mate, that was absolutely fantastic. I took it and copied it onto my facebook in 'notes'. Full thumbs up!
Here are some more signs of a coming recession.
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record...
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/20/fed-warns-of-two-bubbles/
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/24/would-you-pay-39-more-than-asked/
Here is the starting point.
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/04/28/next-recession-will-start-with-this-country/
Here is how to prepare.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
I'm guessing your name is Michael E Kelley.
JUMP YOU FUCKERS, JUMP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As Will Emerson says in Margin Call,
"NOT TODAY!"
If Deutschebank is 100% owned by and run by Isreal
Then everything will be fine
Else
Yes, they are the next Lehman and will collapse, crush the German economy, and be bought out by Goldman Sachs for micro-pennies on the dollar
Maybe Douche-bank is the next Bear Sterns.,, or maybe Lehman. What happened in both of those cases is that the other banks decided to kick them out of the club. They both could have been saved by the Fed. That is obvious ... but they decided not to.
My guess is that the reason is that the other players did not like Jimmy Cayne and Dick Fuld and wanted to kick them to the curb.
If Douche-bank fails, it will be for the same reason.
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I'll bet it works great for Bitcoin.
In the movie, Margin Call (starring Kevin Spacey, among others), what company is being portrayed
as having to sell all of their MBS position in one single day?
I've watched it at least 7 times (own the blu-ray) but have never been sure.
Apparently, it's too tough a question to ask the name of the
Company portrayed in Margin Call?
While I am an RPLS and a six-figure salary programmer who started writing code when Apple was introducing the Apple II,
I'm a "layman" (as opposed to "Lehman") when it comes to Wall Street and the Financial Sector. I come to ZH for two reasons:
1) To learn the TRUTH about our economy and the Financial Markets
2) To absorb as much knowledge as I can about Financial Markets, from the markets.
Now, is it too much to ask the name of the Company that's portrayed in Margin Call?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jakezamansky/2011/10/25/margin-call-is-for-real/
I share your views on this. Reading ZH for a while has enlightened me that the all-singing-all-dancing public façade of our financial markets and the criminal banksters who operate within it, as portrayed by Wall Street/The City, the elites and MSM talking heads, is a million miles away from the reality.
It's just a matter of time until the implosion happens and the house of dominos goes down. It will then be martial law and fascism. Preps are already going on for that inevitability, some overt, others covert.
As for who the company is portrayed in the movie, that would never be revealed at this stage by anyone, at least not until the collapse has happened. The risks to life are simply too great. Speculation is all we have at this point.
The living nightmare to get even worse. It really does feel like the final act is here.
If DB does end up being another Lehman, the German government will do everything to support it. They most likely will nationalize it. The cost to the German public will be enormous.
That said, why would Merkel and her colleagues not offer Greece a bread crumb or two to keep the facade from collapsing?
unless the rot is so bad that the evil attribute of time will take its course not matter what.
You have got it. They need the excuse.
The Derivatives Market busted a couple of weeks ago.
They're going hold Greece at gunpoint to take out another Mortgage to save the EU.
Or the IMF will default on the ECB which will default on DB wihch will default on SG and so on and so on
DB is House of Morgan viz Morgan Grenfell
Timmy Geithner thought he could stem the banks from falling like dominos by increasing leverage and making TBTF bigger than ever so that he could buy time to BUG out before everyone on Wall Street was really running around the streets with their hair on fire. Time is up and that's why Jade Helm 15 is suddenly appearing, folks. It's not like the American Government can afford to send them into Texas, eh. America is bankrupt completely now, but officialdom does not want to admit it to anyone before they collectively cash out like the Congressional Senators did recently.
It's the end of the World as we know it, Z/H.
DB is abut 6% of the FED system and their European wing. I doubt they would be allowed to go under. Just keep rocking the money boat between Europe and America.
DB will be supported at any price. Ask the Greeks. They've been living in hell since the financial crisis because had DB taken losses on Greek debt they would have had to explain to German housewives why the fuck they gave their life savings to rich Greek thieves to spend on their whores.
We had a mortgage crisis. They have a foreign debt crisis. Nice thing about ours it that nobody's talking about bombing American suburbs---yet.
No.
We're gonna need a biiger bank!
Thanks. You do not need to sit arond and bet on a bail-out i.e. DB will be rescued. For the same level of risk that you are prepared to take, you can yank money out of DB either as investors or depositors and place it in other options.
DB's derivatives book is a defiance against Prudence. Not even GS with all its powers dares to venture to such limits. However, is this an emblem of how far you can fool the muppets ?
Enjoy the shaft from this top in class banksters.
That blonde in the top pic is right.
The warning signs are there like the points noted in the article. The politcians, banksters and MSM seek to deceive you from knowing the truth because if the truth was forced down the throats of the ordinary person there would be uproar.
As for DB, RBS is the comical one. UK government bailed out for 40 billion going to take a loss when all sold off to the tune of 12 billion? NO NO NO deception once more. For 5 years 40 billion was used to shore up a failed bank but where was the return on investment that never materialised. You know how prices go up through forced central bank inflation right?
That 40 billion is in fact around 60 billion or more in todays money if it had been ploughed into other things or it could have been used to pay down debt to the tune of 40 billion saving the interest YOY up to today and more going into the future.
An odious debt has been incurred for 12 billion, malinvestment, not in the benefit of the people etc. etc.
"An odious debt has been incurred for 12 billion, malinvestment, not in the benefit of the people etc. etc."
I'm coming round to the idea that there are vast quantities of odious debts on the books of our governments which should be transferred to the accounts of those in government who took them on.
In the UK, HRH Tony Blair & Gordoom Brown are two prime candidates.
Hang the pretty blonde from the nearest lamppost. evil banker! She is to blame for everything that is wrong in the world. evil, evil, eeeviiiiillll
On another note, don't you all agree that we should have goverment issued money like Germany in the 1930's? People is the wealth and the power. Instead of governments paying interest to borrow 'money', banks should pay government/the people to borrow goverment issued money. It is as easy as that.
Would think maybe that a Grexit would be most unlikely. I suspect nail gun accidents in Greece before Grexit. Then again nail gun accidents would send the population crazy.
Also then Greece would hold the aces wouldn't they? They have little to lose when compared to the ultimate outcome for them, but they hold the leverage here it would seem, and for a very long time. Or until their political process can be infiltrated.
I dont think they will use Greece as an excuse for the chaos a DB failure would create as that chaos would be global contagion and a whole bunch of unknown unknowns, to scary even for the hard core neo-cons
OT: The IMF has declared that it will financially support Ukraine whether it defaults or not. The IMF has openly jumped the shark.
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/imf-confirms-it-will-support-ukrai...
"It is known that back in 2010 all the non-Western representatives on the IMF’s board, as well as the Swiss representative, vigorously opposed the planned bailout of Greece, seeing it as a blatantly political attempt to rescue the euro by piling debt on Greece which it could never repay. On that occasion the decision was rammed through by the Western majority, only for the criticism of the non-Western representatives to be proved true later."
So Greece should have started killing its own citizens and all would have been well regarding funding.
Ukraine has more geopolitical and strategic capital than Greece. Don't think for a minute that anyone in Ukraine is getting rich from IMF business.
Douche Bank - what a name.
-or-
Was Lehman The Deutsche Bank Precursor?-i.e., the test run, like OK City--
It must be a pretty big bank because for three days now I've been seeing the same people carry the boxes out in the photo above.
They had really big cubicles and stuff just builds up over time. Kind of like my garage. Know what I mean?