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California To Get Relief from Drought: El Niño to the Rescue

George Washington's picture




 

California is finally set to get some drought relief …

Specifically, forecasters say a strong El Niño is heading our way.

Time gives odds:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there is now a 90% chance that El Niño will last through the winter and an 80% chance it will last into spring 2016.

As does the Los Angeles Times:

Scientists say the likelihood that a significant El Niño will happen is more than 90%, and some models suggest there is a nearly 100% chance it will be strong this fall.

El Niño increases rainfall in California.

Forecasters say this could be the strongest El Niño in 50 years.  USA Today notes:

There is growing evidence California could see an even stronger El Niño event this winter than the 1997 one that caused massive flooding across Northern California.

Indeed, it could be so large that it sets “a new all-time record”.

However, even a very wet winter probably won’t be enough to erase California’s drought.  Scientific American reports:

“California would probably need to experience its wettest year on record (by a fairly wide margin) to erase ongoing deficits in a single year,” Swain wrote on his blog. “While it’s not physically impossible, that would be a very tall order, indeed.”

Wired provides figures:

The state would need about 150 percent of its normal rainfall to replenish its reservoirs (the groundwater situation is a little bit trickier).

See this and this for related stories.

Note: Wired and Accuweather point out that there are other factors which could still derail a wet winter.

 

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Tue, 07/14/2015 - 20:03 | 6313368 Dr. Bonzo
Dr. Bonzo's picture

That's nice. On the other hand, it might worsen the problem by giving people the impression their "problems" have been solved. There's one simple problem, it holds true for Cal, and for the rest of the planet. There are too many fucking people. You can't set up major agricultural industry in the middle of a semi-arid wasteland and just expect the desert to let you get away with it. It's fucking lunacy. Denial at its finest.

There are too many fucking people. That's not a pleasant fact for the perpetual growth crowd that relies on moar moar moar to keep those stats going up up up. But it's the way it is.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 21:05 | 6313562 Milestones
Milestones's picture

POPULUTION! Ocum's Razor.             Milestones

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 19:56 | 6313342 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Once the Ogallula (sp) Aquafilter is totally drained (now about 40-50%) it would require TWICE the amount of water that is in the 5 Great Lakes to refill it and take appx. 200 yeaars to accomplish.

The water in the aquafilters are filled by run off rain and snow in thhe mountains into I imagine large underground rivers, not from rain water.            Miestones 

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:51 | 6313876 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

Not quite.

Estimates put the volume of the Ogallala aquifer at over one million billion (i.e. one quadrillion) gallons of water; enough water to fill Lake Huron and then some.

http://www.oswego.edu/~schneidr/CHE300/envinv/EnvInv12.html


Would doing a little Goggle search before posting bullshit stats kill you?

Yes, I junked you and I'd love to junk the three other idiots who gave you a greenie.  

Fucking idioits will believe anything they read if it fits their preconceived beliefs.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 17:26 | 6312693 Alvin Fernald
Alvin Fernald's picture

" there are other factors which could still derail a wet winter."
- yeah just ask the geoengineers.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 17:42 | 6312722 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

If it actually works I can only think of two:

 

1) loss of the electrical grid

2) failure to pay the geoengineers the request $1B not to derail the wet winter

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 17:46 | 6312595 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

 

 

In other news (actually NOT in the news for some unknown reason) parts of England, Scotland, Belguim, Luxembourg and Germany experienced the first frost of the fall season a couple of days ago on July 10th confirming yet again Obama's assertion that "Climate Change" is the #1 threat to life on the planet. Oh right... almost forgot it's NOT fall it's supposed to be SUMMER

 http://iceagenow.info/2015/07/snow-white-fields-in-germany/

Anyway it's not like we haven't seen winter in summer before... it also happened during the Dalton and Maunder solar minimums when 1/3 of northern Europe's population died due to cold and starvation..

In any case it never happened unless there are pictures (preferably not of the photoshopped variety) so here's a video of Hans or Franz giving you a rundown of what his farm looked like. (Comprehension of German helpful but not mandatory)

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB4Ce7dUB0Y#t=31

Interesting times...

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 23:39 | 6314001 ILLILLILLI
ILLILLILLI's picture

Sorry...I'm afraid I'll need to see some pics of rigid Fräulein nipples to confirm. One must have their scientific standards, you know. 

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 23:38 | 6313997 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

The tripe now being peddled is that we should be in a cooling period. So evidence that we are not cooling means we are actually warming. /2xfacepalm

Nevermind that cooling has historically resulted in mass die-offs.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 20:54 | 6313537 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

when it comes to water, we are in a closed loop system, no?

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 20:55 | 6313501 conscious being
conscious being's picture

I appreciate the post. Just want to say, after checking (some of) the video, Hans or Franz's frost is weak. I mean you have to kind of squint.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 16:49 | 6312501 theeseer
theeseer's picture

El Nino is a liberal cospiracy!!

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 19:40 | 6313292 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

Save this article and watch  what happens the next 12 months.

We'll see how their frickin computer models work out.

Who cares, by 2030 the sun is going to turn out the lights anyway.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 19:50 | 6313324 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

Grand Minima, here we come!

Let's have a contest between the models predicting global warming and those predicting the Grand Minima. See which ones replicate the last 11,000 years and the next 15 best.

Any even money bets to be paid up in 2030?

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 20:58 | 6313548 Karaio
Karaio's picture

Bet on nuclear winter ...

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:33 | 6313824 ILLILLILLI
ILLILLILLI's picture

Be careful what you ask for...

From an article in the San Jose Mercury News:

 

In 2010, the U.S. Geoglogical Survey published a paper titled "ARkStorm: California's other 'Big One'." The Scientific American ran an article in 2012 entitled "California Megaflood: Lessons from a Forgotten Catastrophe" as well as a 2013 article, "Megastorms Could Drown Massive Portions of California."

Geologic evidence shows that massive flooding, caused by rainfall alone, have occurred in California every 100 to 200 years. Atmospheric scientists refer to these megafloods as ARkStorms (Atmospheric River, 1000). An ARkStorm would be the equivalent of what we call the "Pineapple Express" on bath salts. The last time California experienced a megaflood of this kind was 154 years ago, when the population was only 500,000.

 In the Bible, it rained for 40 days. Beginning Christmas Eve of 1861, powerful Pacific storms battered California with torrential rains that continued unabated for 43 days. Rivers and creeks throughout the state quickly became raging torrents of water and debris overflowing their banks and destroying everything in their path. This enormous pulse of water from the sky raced down mountain slopes and across California's landscape, creating a huge inland sea in California's Central Valley 300 miles long and 20 miles wide.

Water covered farmlands and towns, drowning people, horses, 200,000 head of cattle, and washing away houses, buildings, barns and bridges. Water reached depths up to 30 feet; Sacramento was under 10 feet of water -- for several months! The state capital was moved to San Francisco, and the state of California went bankrupt.

It wasn't just California that was affected. Nevada received twice its average annual rainfall between December 1861 and January 1862. The Carson Valley became a vast lake, inundating Nevada City with 9 feet of rain. In Oregon, deluges covered huge portions of the lower Willamette Valley where Oregon City is located.

Full article here:

http://www.mercurynews.com/opinion/ci_28462025/todd-dwyer-el-nino-be-car...

 

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 23:19 | 6313961 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

My forecast is for a 100% chance of another fucking "temporary" sales tax increase to pay for the damage. You can take that to the bank.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 00:52 | 6314108 capitallosses
capitallosses's picture

I've been in Kalifornia my whole life. No such thing as a "temporary" tax increase.

Wed, 07/15/2015 - 01:37 | 6314145 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Sure there is.  It's temporary until they admit it's permanent.

Tue, 07/14/2015 - 22:27 | 6313818 Paveway IV
Paveway IV's picture

Black rain from Fukushima. Black tide from Fukushima. 

And the first Chinese reactor accident hasn't even happened yet. 

But don't worry - what they don't report can't hurt you. The jetstream is a figment of your imagination.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!