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Chinese Stocks Suffer Second Biggest Crash In History, 1,500 Companies Halted Limit Down

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This was not supposed to happen.

After pledging, investing and otherwise guaranteeing the Chinese stock market to the tune of 10% of GDP, and intervening on at least 40 different occasions in the past month ever since China's stock bubble burst in late June, with the subsequent crash nearly taking the Shanghai Composite red for the year, overnight China officially lost control for the second time, when after a weak start to the Monday trading session, things turned very ugly in the last hour, when the Shanghai Composite plunged by 8.48%, closing nearly at the lows, and tumbling some 345 points for its biggest one-day drop since February 2007 and its second biggest crash in history!

 

The selling was steady throughout the day, but spiked in the last hour on concerns China would rein in its market-supporting programs following IMF demands to normalize its relentless market intervention. According to Bloomberg's Richard Breslow: "fear that the extraordinary support measures employed to hold up the market may be scaled back caused heavy afternoon selling resulting in a down 8.5% day." Of course, one can come up with any number of theories to explain the plunge: for example the PBOC did not buy enough to offset the relentless selling.

 

The last thing the communist party and the PBOC wanted was another massive sell off after having not only fired the "bazooka" but come up with a different bazooka to halt "malicious sellers" virtually every day, including threats of arrest.

 

Nobody was spared in the selloff and of the 1,114 stocks in the Shanghai Composite, 13 closed higher on Monday.

Here, courtesy of the WSJ, are some of the more amazing numbers of today's selloff:

  • The Shanghai Composite Index ended down 8.5% at 3725.56, its second-straight day of losses and worst daily percentage fall since February 27, 2007. The smaller Shenzhen Composite fell 7% to 2160.09 and the ChiNext, composed of small-cap stocks and sometimes known as China’s Nasdaq,  closed 7.4% lower at 2683.45.
  • More than two-thirds of the stocks in the Shanghai Composite, or about 765 companies, hit their down limit on Monday. Those limits prevented hundreds of stocks from logging sharper declines, though they can also make it harder for investors to exit positions.
  • Since the Shanghai Composite peaked in June, it has lost 28% of its
    value.
    Massive intervention by authorities in Beijing engineered a
    rebound for the country’s stock markets earlier this month, but Monday’s
    selloff eroded much of that recovery.
  • Although hundreds of stocks have resumed trading since the market bottomed earlier this month, 126 stocks on the Shanghai Composite are still halted.
  • International investors have been ditching Chinese stocks for the past few weeks, spooked by widespread share suspensions that locked up capital. Investors sold stocks during 13 of the past 16 trading sessions via the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, a trading link connecting the two cities that launched in November. Cumulative outflows now total 39.9 billion yuan, or U.S. $6.43 billion.

According to Reuters, there was little to explain the scale of the sell-off. Some analysts said fears that China may hold off from further loosening of monetary policy had contributed to souring investor sentiment.

Sure enough, narratives to "explain" the selling which beget more selling, were promptly offered, as can be seen in this Bloomberg summary of aftter the fact research reports;

NORTHEAST SECURITIES

  • “The decline, extending losses on Friday, is a technical correction after hundreds of companies rebounded 50% with dozens of stocks even doubling after the sell-off,” analyst Shen Zhengyang says by phone
  • “The rebound from the earlier sell-off has pretty much come to an end and the market needs to take a breather”
  • Possible expansion of yuan band may put the currency under  depreciation pressure, while pick-up in home prices in 1st-    tier cities may mean weaker-than-expected monetary easing policies going forward
  • Mkt might enter range-bound consolidation after technical correction, but upside will be limited as investor confidence was shattered in earlier sell-off

CHINA SOUTHERN FUND

  • Mkt slumps due to “fragile” investment sentiment, investors locking in profit from previous rebound: chief strategist Yang Delong says in phone interview
  • A shares extend decline as investors started to take profit from last Friday after recent mkt rebound
  • Investors lose faith in a longer-term rebound
  • Expects China to roll out more measures to boost A shrs if SHCOMP drops below 3,800
  • Govt backed funds, with big enough war chest, may buy stocks after mkt slump today

SHENWAN HONGYUAN GROUP

  • Pullback today mainly due to profit-taking, while news on possible govt exit of mkt rescue also has impact on mkt: analyst Qian Qimin
  • Weakness in heavyweight stks may lead to “double dip” in mkt, sees “policy bottom” at 3,500 points as index below that level may trigger panic again
  • Fundamentals underpinning bull mkt may have disappeared given low probability in further monetary easing, potential investment shifting to property mkt, more cautious mkt sentiment

SINOLINK SECURITIES

  • A share slump today is an “aftershock” as mkt sentiment needs longer time to recover from previous mkt correction: analyst Huang Cendong

We agree with one thing: having gone all in, the Chinese government can't stop now, and after pledging half a trillion for its Plunge Protection Team (recall China skipped all the QE pleasantries and proceeded straight to buying stocks, launching a quasi-nationalization of the market and making the China Securities Finance Corp a Top 10 shareholder of numerous stocks), it will be forced to do even more, in the process crushing confidence that much more, since investors both offshore and domestic, realize that the fair value of stocks is far lower than current price ex. government intervention.

"Investors are not confident that the bull market will return any time soon," Jimmy Zuo, a trader at Guosen Securities, told Bloomberg.

"People want to pocket profits after the benchmark index rose past the 4,000 mark."

And who can blame them? The only question we have is when will people in other "developed" markets wake up to their own just as manipulated markets, and decide they too have had enough with the rigged casino.

Actually, there is another question: the last time Chinese stocks had a near-record crash, the PBOC somehow "discovered" 600 tons of gold hiding under the couch to prop up confidence. We wonder how much it will "discover" this time.

 

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Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:54 | 6358486 OneTinTrooper
OneTinTrooper's picture

exactly my point, only a nutcase would threaten people with 7 plagues if they question one's authority ... sounds like ISIS ... so many fucked up ideas come from that part of the world

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:18 | 6358373 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Evidence now indicates the book of revelations was not written by John the Baptist, but by John the deranged wandering homeless street person. So TB, good luck with your ranting and raving. You are carrying on a fine tradition. Can you tell us which street corner you will be spewing from today? I want some new comedy video for my youtube channel. Thanks for the levity, we all can use some.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:25 | 6358395 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

The quote above is not from the book of Revelation.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:36 | 6358424 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

Most if not all Bibles have a copyright notice in the first few pages.  I have yet to see one which has a copyright attributed to God, what does that tell you?

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:45 | 6358442 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

The Bible was written by men who had the word of God revealed to them by the Holy Spirit.

The fact that hundreds of prophecies written in the Bible have come true, plus the fact that the events that we all see happening were foretold by the Bible- would lead an observant person to the conclusion that the few prophecies that have not yet been fulfilled will be.

That's what it tells me.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:55 | 6359168 DeProgrammed
DeProgrammed's picture

It tells me that organized religion uses the same psychological tactics that keep horoscope peddlers and psychics in business.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:58 | 6358500 cgbspender
cgbspender's picture

It tells me that you don't even have a basic understanding of IP law. Copyrights are compulsory on items such as books.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:34 | 6358634 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Yes, & goD is not the author

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:48 | 6358686 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

Some of the homeless souls may be closer to God than the rest of us.  My number one son tells stories about when he became full of himself in law school he would go down the shelter and play chess with the street urchins.  Invariably one of them would clean his clock.  I would not out of hand dismiss the insights of some of the homeless. I have been to Patmos.  I have seen where John slept. It is a place of austerity and isolation.  Where better to listen to the still small voice?

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:19 | 6358375 headhunt
headhunt's picture

God ain't no communist.

Muhammad may be.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:33 | 6358861 DutchBoy2015
DutchBoy2015's picture

God and Santa, the Easter Bunny and Tooth fairy ..............all very REAL

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:49 | 6359142 headhunt
headhunt's picture

I think you have had too many meat members pounding against the back side of your mouth one too many times and it has damaged your brain.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:57 | 6359175 DeProgrammed
DeProgrammed's picture

Words of a true Christian?

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 08:29 | 6362317 headhunt
headhunt's picture

My comment was for DutchBoy not MrSteve - not sure how that posted in that order

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 14:19 | 6359735 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

I've played three, but not God, that's reserved for Charleton Heston. Tooth Fairy is my fav, exchanging dimes for "tooths" left under a pillow. The dimes, tooths and exchange are all very real as are the decorated eggs and presents under the tree.

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 08:25 | 6366403 headhunt
headhunt's picture

Sorry MRSteve - my comment was for DutchBoy - not sure how that posted in that order

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:29 | 6358405 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

Tribulation Blues = False Prophet.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:39 | 6358426 agstacks
agstacks's picture

I missed the references to America when I read the bible.  

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 12:12 | 6359237 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Daughter of Babylon

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 15:02 | 6359895 ebear
ebear's picture

You need the secret decoder ring.

19.95 plus shipping and handling.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:29 | 6358409 ross81
ross81's picture

so wild speculation & casino capitalism is communism now?

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:31 | 6358416 headhunt
headhunt's picture

No - just their reaction to the risks of capitalism.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 07:49 | 6358308 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the boc and gubbermint will own it all eventually. if i'm not mistaken they already own half?

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 07:51 | 6358315 Bogdog
Bogdog's picture

In our collective "race to the bottom" China appears to be winning.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 07:57 | 6358326 BGO
BGO's picture

When the Chinese start to dump their US real estate holdings- good times~!

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:38 | 6358651 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Housing crash 2.0 caused by the faux rich foreigners vs. Housing crash 1.0 caused by the faux rich American! 

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:12 | 6358358 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

They wont sell their gold.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:14 | 6358364 secretargentman
secretargentman's picture

Quick, arrest more sellers! (obviously sellers are counter-revolutionaries who need time in a re-education camp)

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:25 | 6358393 Surveyor4Pres
Surveyor4Pres's picture

Shhhhhh.  Don't tell General Wesley Clark.

(He wants to send all 'disloyal Americans' to internment camps).

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:17 | 6358369 headhunt
headhunt's picture

That Chinese world reserve dollar plan is going well.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:51 | 6358474 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Indeed, but in this fiat world there is no shortage of "dirty shirts".  Now imagine the implosion in the American standard of living should China's "market" become the "cleanest dirty shirt"...

 

Still a ways to go IMO, but I buy physical PMs, so I am a "barbarian".

Wed, 07/29/2015 - 08:24 | 6366399 headhunt
headhunt's picture

'Barbarians' always win in the end

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:20 | 6358377 Surveyor4Pres
Surveyor4Pres's picture

And yet, Drudge's headline reads:

WHITNEY HOUSTON DAUGHTER DEAD

More Hollywood Headlines for the Stupid Masses...

(and I thought FOX News was bad).

P.S.

I usually like Drudge.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:40 | 6358430 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

OMG, houston is dead??? oh that houston, never mind.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:52 | 6358477 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

I usually like Drudge as well but more and more it seems like I'm reading the front page of the National Enquirer at the checkout when I click on his site.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:03 | 6358520 no1ninja
no1ninja's picture

Drudge is for old people who are too confused using more than one link for news. 

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:11 | 6358554 Surveyor4Pres
Surveyor4Pres's picture

Funny, when mom (75 yrs old) and I talk and she mentions a Drudge "article",

many times I have to ask her: Did you actually read the story, or just the headline?

Headlines can be misleading on some sites.  The worst are the "teaser" headlines on the Jerry Springer of online news--The Blaze!!

(Their version of the Whitney Houston headline would be something like "Guess who's daughter just died?")

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 14:33 | 6359796 DelusionalGrandeur
DelusionalGrandeur's picture

Good, fuck her....blame it on my white privileges.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:29 | 6358412 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Sell German car makers, Swiss luxury goods companies and Diageo.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:34 | 6358413 Lazarus09
Lazarus09's picture

chinese shares lost $4 trillion in capitalization in about a month.. seems that bubble is fucked. Seems all the bubbles goes to the dogs .. big bang in Nov. ?

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:34 | 6358418 mademesmile
mademesmile's picture

I dont place much faith in the predictive ability of dreams, but this one was too weird not to share.

I was watching a cardinals baseball game on TV and I had the inpression it was September. There was a lady for the entertainment that came on and instead of singing the national anthem, went on this political speal and also announced the government was going to be taking over even larger pieces of the economy. Someone hussled her off the stage to much booing. You could hear someone in the croud yell "the real revolution has just started" and after that it was just chaos. The entire stadum was yelling, throwing things and acting viral. It spread to anyone who was watching.  

I have the distinct impress September is going to be interesting. I think it just manafast in a dream.

 

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:53 | 6358944 Cold-Pragmatism
Cold-Pragmatism's picture

Or it meant that the Mets were getting slaughtered again, and that the fans had enough of it!

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 12:19 | 6359262 mademesmile
mademesmile's picture

Lol. The weird part is while a fairweather cardinal fan I rarely watch baseball on TV. This was one of those dreams where you wake up, make sure you are awake and just think wow, movies just don't compete with the human brain.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:41 | 6358434 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Be optimistic, this could be the begining of China's "market" become more honest by comparison.  Yes, dirty shirts everywhere, but think of the implosion of the american standard of living should China's market become the "cleanest dirty shirt"...

tick tock motherfuckers...

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:48 | 6358923 Cold-Pragmatism
Cold-Pragmatism's picture

Well, at least we know that the Laws of Physics, in this case gravity, work better in China than they do in the USA!

What goes up must come down, no!

I'd be more worried if the Chinese and US markets had some sort of quantum entanglement! Apologizes I just couldn't resist, your name and all that.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 15:14 | 6359941 ebear
ebear's picture

"Well, at least we know that the Laws of Physics, in this case gravity, work better in China than they do in the USA!"

Now ask him why your chickens don't lay eggs.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:48 | 6358465 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Did the NYSE break already LOLOL

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:15 | 6358568 Two Theives and...
Two Theives and a Liar's picture

Exactly. I'll take the "under" on what time the first self-help message goes out...

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:50 | 6358470 Able Ape
Able Ape's picture

Chinese fire-drills on bath salts aren't supposed to be a lot of fun...

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:52 | 6358481 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrFbYhlr1Ws

Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 08:54 | 6358484 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Calm down, Chinese officials could dump all their private shares into this "recovery", now they let it crash. It's a completely normal behavior of corrupt Communist elites.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:02 | 6358517 redwater
redwater's picture

They've become Hotel California:

"You can check out any time you like. But you can never leave."

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:10 | 6358549 Apocalicious
Apocalicious's picture

Any number of theories? No, there is exactly one reason: more sellers than buyers.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:15 | 6358569 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

As usual this can all be "fixed" with the "proper" accounting. 

2+2=5. I love big brother. 

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:25 | 6358598 Sid James
Sid James's picture

Sheng ta ma de, guanbi wo de zhanghu, rang wo dìng jipiao qu lundun.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:39 | 6358884 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

talk dirty to me

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:03 | 6358984 Sid James
Sid James's picture

Fuck that, close my account, I am moving to London.

Is that dirty enough for you?

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:29 | 6358622 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

China needs a Hank Paulson to walk on stage hands trembling begging for a trillion dollar bailout [and his own $600 million one].  China will copy The Bernank/Geitner playbook and flood their markets with paper.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:43 | 6358901 nosam
nosam's picture

China needs no stinkin Paulson. They are not pretending to be a democracy the way the US is. They govern by royal decree,

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:36 | 6358642 CHC
CHC's picture

I just think the China Plunge Protection Team got their work schedules mixed up and had the day off.  No biggie.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:36 | 6358643 whoknoz
whoknoz's picture

“The rebound from the earlier sell-off has pretty much come to an end and the market needs to take a breather”

...the actual translation was "...needs to take its last breath..."

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:37 | 6358648 besnook
besnook's picture

the chinese market takedown looks more and more like a western zionazi operation. as the saying goes, the chinese can print more yuan than you have shorts. the real danger is the counterparty risk of the dark pools of western fiat responsible for this takedown. i don't think it will end as successfully as the japan takedown of the early 90s.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 14:46 | 6358653 Pullmyfinger
Pullmyfinger's picture

This is closely related to the geopolitical cyberwar raging just below the surface. Given that the global blogosphere has been yacking on about the Chinese stock market bubble for many months, how likely is it that the Chinese themselves couldn't see it, nor made any preparations in advance of its collapse to take advantage of it in some manner? Bear in mind that the Chinese markets --by a very wide margin-- do not have the same proportional significance to their general economy as those in the U.S. So when I take this apart with Occam's razor, I see this:

It's being reported that the Chinese have also dumped $250 billion in U.S. Treasuries during just the last six months alone. Then they stirred the hornet's nest by coming out with that ridiculously lowballed announcement that the PBOC had increased its gold holdings over the last six or seven years by 600 tonnes. Both of these actions are extremely threatening to the dollar's hegemony. Conclusion: the rapidity in which this bubble grew, in conjunction with the insistent violence of its deflation, has been engineered by the West.

However, in two or three month's time, when the same thing has begun here in earnest, devastating the general economy and probably shutting down the credit and finance machinery altogether, the Chinese government's "investment" in all those stocks it's currently buying up under the guise of "plunge protection," will ultimately begin to pay a handsome dividend... 

America's neocons always think they are playing Chess with the Chinese, when all the while, the rules of the real game are those of Go. Guess who loses.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:42 | 6358672 Richard Whitney
Richard Whitney's picture

This decline has delivered a buying opportunity. Price is still above the 200-day moving average. Another, slower decline to just below these numbers, to the lows of three weeks ago, and the bell will ring.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:18 | 6358812 DutchBoy2015
DutchBoy2015's picture

Sure, buy , buy .buy   money for nothing.   Have you ever thought of doing some real work?

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:50 | 6358696 Panic Mode
Panic Mode's picture

Margin the fuck down.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 09:51 | 6358699 SMC
SMC's picture

Reality is setting in... coming soon to the USSA as well.

Fair value for trash is zero.  Fair value for a company that depends on government debt to fund their corporate welfare is less than zero.

The punchline will be the alphabet soup agencies paying their thugs wheelbarrows of worthless FRN USD to use their billions of hollow-points attempting to enforce agricultural and industrial production, rationing and price controls.

 

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:02 | 6358746 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

If I were a China peasant man I would say screw this stock market thing, I'm saving my money with gold.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:12 | 6358782 rejected
rejected's picture

"China would rein in its market-supporting programs following IMF demands to normalize its relentless market intervention."

lololol,,, Now that's funny coming from the West.! My humor of the day....

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:15 | 6358792 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Last Tuesday with DJIA at 17,900 my screens pointed to a bear market lower low at 17250, now down just 150 more points:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=DJIA&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=8

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:18 | 6358811 juicy_bananas
juicy_bananas's picture

Now ban buyers.  Derp.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:18 | 6358813 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Anyone: what does "limit down" mean?

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:35 | 6358871 ChargingHandle
ChargingHandle's picture

Limit down also refers to the maximum decline permitted in individual stocks on certain exchanges before trading curbs kick in. The limit is generally set as a percentage of the market price of the futures or stock, and occasionally as a dollar amount.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 14:08 | 6359681 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

All God's Children Got Circuit Breakers!

 

from the SEC website,

here's the percentage limits for US exchanges:

http://www.sec.gov/investor/alerts/circuitbreakersbulletin.htm

Under the revised rules approved by the SEC, market-wide circuit breakers will provide for cross-market trading halts during a severe market decline as measured by a single-day decrease in the S&P 500 Index. A cross-market trading halt can be triggered at three circuit breaker thresholds—7% (Level 1), 13% (Level 2), and 20% (Level 3). These triggers are set by the markets at point levels that are calculated daily based on the prior day’s closing price of the S&P 500 Index.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 16:28 | 6360224 Hyjinx
Hyjinx's picture

No circuit breaker for an out-of-control ramp, eh?  No, move along, nothing to see here!

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:38 | 6358878 besnook
besnook's picture

there is a cap on how far equity prices can fall in one session at one time, say 10%(i don't know what the exact number is). limit down means that the price has fallen as much as it is allowed to fall in one session.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 21:17 | 6361215 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Thanks all.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:25 | 6358839 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

There is a non-zero (and growing) probability that a generation of Americans will see the large majority of their assets/savings destroyed by forces well beyond their control.  I have a 'no thank you' equity allocation, choosing instead to focus on ag land with multiple, diversified cash flow streams.  There is something satisfying about seeing land change as you build businesses on it.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:51 | 6359154 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

Agreed. I chose isolated farmland with wells run by windmills and a house over gold and stocks. Running cattle on some of it. Added affordable rentals and hard money mortgages on properties I'd love to own if the buyers go South.

It's working out fine. 

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:40 | 6358888 Able Ape
Able Ape's picture

Paging Hank PauRson, paging Hank PauRson.....

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:43 | 6358896 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

At this point, I really don't see a "crash". I foresee a slow, steady rot in all markets. 

 

The fruit (QE/ZIRP) is pretty and tasty when it's fresh (rising equities/low inflation), but if you leave it on the counter too long, it starts to rot and turns to shit. 

 

 

(Not to be confused with Wicksellian cumulative rot) 

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 10:47 | 6358920 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

You can only bounce a dead cat so many times before it just sticks to the ground.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:01 | 6358978 Omega_Man
Omega_Man's picture

I suspect this market was aided in it's meltdown by those who wanted more QE from the FED.... They need to get more QE from the US in order to utterly destroy the USA.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:03 | 6358985 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

What do you mean, "Not supposed to happen"?  When the SSEC jumps from 2000 to 5000 inside of a year, it's just cruisin' for a bruisin'.  This chart is eager to dip down to 3000.  Maybe tomorrow.  Markets these days don't leave trend lying around waiting to happen.  Would be a 20% drop.  And still mean nothing.  BTFCD!

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:03 | 6358986 jonytk
jonytk's picture

Just imagine all this chinese "banks" rehipotecating copper, oil, real state as collateral for leverage stock trading. What could possibly go wrong .jpg

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:15 | 6359018 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

gravity OP

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:16 | 6359026 shankster
Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:34 | 6359081 mcbond
mcbond's picture

China Shanghai Composite target 2000?

world's No. 2 economy, knocking down global equities and the prices of key commodities.

http://tersee.com/#!q=stocks&t=text

 

 

 

 

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:39 | 6359100 highwaytoserfdom
highwaytoserfdom's picture

gee gold is not money   yous   R Wong   says  mee Tinks  Low

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 11:47 | 6359135 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

But but, I was told China was an economic juggernaut that was going to rule the world!

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 15:17 | 6359953 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

"Nobody could have seen this coming!"

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 12:28 | 6359292 mademesmile
mademesmile's picture

I do wonder if America has anything to do with it. Watched a great 30 minute show called on the record which proved how our CIA funded ALqueida - and the ambassador that was killed was a big part of it. He had asked out government for back up months before, repeated, and was declined. This was because Gadaffi had started trading gold for oil in Adrica and was planning a gold backed currency that would expand into Africa. So we decided support the group that was against him. I had heard all of these conspiracy theories before but never laid out with the interviews and documentation. Proves it beyond a reasonable doubt.
Anyway, it sounds like China was close to a gold backed currency and America is going to do everything to make sure it doesn't happen.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 14:50 | 6359837 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

The only currency on the planet that has significant 'gold backing' is the Euro. The ECB holds 10,800 tons reported on its Consolidated Financial Statement....roughly 60% of it's reserves in dollar terms are gold. Because they mark it to market, few understand the significance. In our current monetary system having a gold standard type of currency, where a country promises to buy gold at a set price is the death of that economy. Holding gold as a reserve however allows the currency to become stronger if the dollar price of gold increases, without harming the local economy.

Don't ignore the fact that the Euro is the youngest new currency (of any size) and was developed by some fairly smart people (and even a Nobel Laureate).

It will get stronger as the dollar gets weaker in gold.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 16:29 | 6360229 Hyjinx
Hyjinx's picture

Or it will completely implode because it is a curse on a lot of countries entrapped by it.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 12:47 | 6359363 roddy6667
roddy6667's picture

Hyperbole. Look at the charts. The drop in 2007 was many times as big and China recovered nicely. Much nicer than America, in fact.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 15:33 | 6360017 PleasedToMeatYou
PleasedToMeatYou's picture

"Hyperbole. Look at the charts.

Completely true, so far, but I'm pretty sure this round isn't done yet for China or for US. 

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 01:41 | 6361891 roddy6667
roddy6667's picture

If the Shanghai Composite dropped to 2000 and took a year to reach 3000, it would be right where it should be. look at the chart. In 2007, the market dropped more than that, and China did nor collapse. In fact, it recovered niclely and is doing much better than America. But that doesn't make headlines for the Doom And Gloomers to peddle their articles.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 14:35 | 6359801 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

How odd that the massive sell off did not result in selling of gold (due to margin calls of course) did not happen yesterday like it did last week...perhaps that theory was wrong.

I continue to watch with amusement the slow drain of gold from GLD and the simultaneous drop in the gold price. I'm sure I'll amuse the grandchildren with such stories in my old age.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 14:40 | 6359818 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Even in communist China they have better "price discovery" then the ponzi U.S. casino.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 14:46 | 6359844 chickadee
chickadee's picture

Get ready for another dump of gold collected from today's Chinese margin calls.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 14:54 | 6359867 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

That was last week, did not happen yesterday...they will need another excuse for the next plunge in gold price.

In essense a bullion bank can sell paper as long as anyone will buy it. As long as they never have to produce physical and they have the backing of the central bank and produce the paper price of the gold they have sold, they are OK. Things only go sideways if there is a problem with a major player demanding physical. So far all the big shots are playing nicely. To be the one who crashed the system by insisting on physical would mean drawing the ire of the whole rest of the world.

I suspect this will be a group decision when it happens (the repricing of physical).

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 14:57 | 6359871 oldguyonBMXbike
oldguyonBMXbike's picture

I thought I had to go to North Korea to find Battle Unicorns?

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 15:18 | 6359958 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

Don't step in the rainbow.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 15:03 | 6359899 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

Shenzhen Sidewalk for the blind (watch that last step, its a doozie): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibM-Q8SjvZY

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 15:19 | 6359969 Magooo
Magooo's picture
China's Ghost Cities - 60 Minutes Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1ZsVUB_-qg

 

To say nobody saw this coming speaks of the idiocy and greed of man.....

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 15:34 | 6360022 JLM
JLM's picture

A quote from Yoda, "There is no such thing as strong support in the markets".  In other words the Force will not help you!

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 15:52 | 6360045 Md4
Md4's picture

Fundamentals underpinning bull mkt may have disappeared given low probability in further monetary easing, potential investment shifting to property mkt, more cautious mkt sentiment"

This statement, apparently at ground level, is at the heart of the matter.

What exactly does this term "investment" mean?

It certainly doesn't mean investment; if it did, we...and China...would already be onto real recovery.

The market fundamentals that inspire and lead to real investment means capital has been allocated and commited to worthwhile endeavors, benefitting consumers and workers, and THAT leads to actual returns on the capital invested.

Clearly, that's NOT what's going on in China.

That's because, it's not really going on here either.

In the absence of real income growth in western consumer's pockets (from new, good-paying jobs), there can't be acutal GDP growth in what are now producer economies. We began to scramble first...now they scramble too.

The longer this unproductive, deleterious madness continues, the worse the collapse will be. It doesn't matter which government or central bank is doing what or why; in the total absence of a genuinely free market, it is exceedingly harmful.

If the manuipulation doesn't end for reason's sake soon, I submit, it's high time the broken western and asian working poor begin to rise to stop it. They're increasingly being crushed for no real benefit anyway. Lives AND futures are at stake, and the world's multitudes are NOT prospering.

In the US, the Fed's Yellen will soon face a critical moment of truth: to raise rates from zero (even a little) or to yet again hold, awaiting "further strengthening" in what's left of the old economy.

If she hesitates again, regardless of the result should she have raised rates, THEN, it's time OUR nation's embattled working classes rise, and put a stop to the madness here, themselves. The American people should at that time demand Congress step in to repeal the Federal Reserve Act, and take direct (constitutional) responsibility for the nation's currency.

Folks, consider this carefully; Congress has shirked it's unique constitutional authority AND responsibility long enough. Just look at what we have to show for it.

It's been SIX-PLUS YEARS people; we're NOT going to get better with six more.

It's time force an end to this lunacy.

m

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 15:51 | 6360080 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

1. Financial crises are part of a process. If we do not understand the process and how it links to the economy and economic expectations that are themselves unreal, we will not be able to take actions that tame financial crises in the future.

2. Financial crises arise out of excessive optimism about innovation, economic prospects and policy control. Unfortunately, optimism is also an important driver of innovation and economic growth. Human beings have to contend with these contradictions.

3. A central policy question is how to control all avenues of money expansion, personal wealth (new money) and personal credit demanded (credit demand). An important indicator of “over gearing” is when cash requirements are too low relative to the prevailing and prospective price.

4. Jawboning doesn’t help. History is littered with central bankers and Treasury officials who have cautioned against, to use former Chairman Greenspan’s term, irrational exuberance—and with the same result: rejection, even derision.

5. The process of displacement can take years, even decades, but the actual period of excess historically is very short, often only a couple of years. Thus, efforts to moderate and reduce the tendency for crisis have to rest within the ongoing economic system, including policy, and cannot be introduced only when the peak occurs. Then, it is too late.

6. Revulsion also takes years. The lender of last resort plays an important role in the healing process, but the temptation to force the process too quickly creates new problems.

7. Finally, almost all modern financial crises are international in scope.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 16:59 | 6360361 J Jason Djfmam
J Jason Djfmam's picture

The problem I am seeing here is that there is not enough value in the world to borrow enough money against to cover the losses.

Creating money out of thin air only takes us this far.

Mon, 07/27/2015 - 20:14 | 6360924 honestann
honestann's picture

The Chinese government has UTTERLY, TOTALLY and PERMANENTLY destroyed any illusion that any degree of economic freedom exists in China.

I must admit that I'm stunned they've been so stupid.

They could have just created a pile of fiat and bought stocks on the sly.  But no!  They let their true colors shine through for everyone to see.

And now they can't take it back.

What morons!

Disclaimer:  I'm not saying the Chinese government should have printed fiat and bought stocks on the sly.  They should have let the "market" collapse to whatever point became attractive enough for buyers.

I'm just saying they totally screwed themselves by demonstrating "the market is not even remotely a market".  And especially, "if you put your money into China, you may never be able to get it out".  That's STUPID.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 06:34 | 6362104 redd_green
redd_green's picture

Tell me who believed there was any freedom BEFORE this stock market stuff?  Anyone?   Anyone?

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 16:09 | 6364169 honestann
honestann's picture

Lots of westerners thought China had fairly good economic freedom.  Maybe even some Chinese too.

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 00:20 | 6361758 hedgiex
hedgiex's picture

Their market is relatively not significant to be saved with this huge infusion and interference. It does not threaten thie Economy.

PBOC should have saved its creditability arsenal for more serious meltdowns. What an asinine misuse by bureaucrats who think that they can control market forces.

They gained nothing but just a destruction of other financial reforms initiatives. It wil take aeons or maybe never for investors to buy whatever coming reforms.

Good that some get vindicated that the Command and Control Economy has not lost its color in lowering risks for shorts.

While foreign investors in the market are relatively small, those who have bought the spins of growth, etc should now give their snake oil peddlers some bouquets.

 

 

 

Tue, 07/28/2015 - 06:31 | 6362098 redd_green
redd_green's picture

And they did ALL this, without HFT! Amazing.

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