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Dow-Stockalypse-Wow: Bonds & Bullion Soar As Equities Crash
On a day like this - we deserve two clips...
And of course...
- *S&P 500 FALLS 2.1% FOR WORST DAY SINCE FEBRUARY 2014
With the biggest volume for this time of year since 2011...
And here's why...
It's not over yet...
WE'RE GONNA NEED A BIGGER BALANCE SHEET
So let's dive in - here is the US equity indices Since their kneejerk pop after FOMC Minutes...NOT "Off The Lows"
- *S&P 500 SLIPS BELOW MARCH LOW OF 2,040, BOTTOM OF TRADING RANGE
And on the week...CARNAGE!
But futures show the swings even more dramatically... China China China...Fold...
Here are all the major stock indices showing the level of retardation...
And since the end of QE3...Small Caps are now unchanged, Dow and Trannies notably red...
VIX exploded back above 19...
65% Off Sale in TWTR...
and 18% Off Sale in DIS...
Surprise!!! Energy stocks are collapsing back to credit and commodity reality.. NOTE: Energy Credit Risk is at a record high 1110bps!
Who could have seen that coming?
No brainer: short energy stocks, long credit pic.twitter.com/rC05G32OkS
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 11, 2015
This has been worrying us for a while...
Stocks cratered to catch down to credit's reality once again... for the 3rd time in 10 days...
But stocks have a long way to go to reality...
Treasury yields collapsed with 10Y pushing back towards a 1 handle...10Y 2.07% lows, 30Y 2.74%
This leaves the entire Treasury complex lower in yield on the year (but but but all those clever economists said rates would rise?)
Swiss Franc contonues tobe well bid, as is the EUR, as Yellen popped the dollar bid bubble (albeit maybe briefly) yesterday with her confusion... This is the biggest 2day drop in USD Index in 3 months and closes at its lowest in 6 weeks...
Commodities all gained on the day (as the USD dumped) but crude was technically driven by the expiration...
While the carnage in stocks grabbed the headlines, the last 2 days have seen the biggest surge in gold prices sicne 2014...breaking back above its 50-day moving average...
Gold and Silver soared...
And finally this trend is not your friend...
Bonds are now the best performer of 2015 (up very modestly) with gold and silver ahead of stocks...
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: Is Oil Cheap? Is Gold Expensive?
Bonus Bonus Chart: with a big h/t to @RaoulGMI - This is the most important trendline in the world right now... which way next?
Bonus Bonus Bonus Chart...
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Rut tagged the lower trend line of my descending wedge which is getting awfully tight (bullish). RSI on IWM 4 hr is flashing oversold.
A face ripping short squeeze next week starting maybe as early as tomorrow may be the soup du jour. Been making a killing on the way down here...feels like it's time to take the other side for a short time... still feels like this will resolve to TNA being range bound in the 70's for a bit once this vol. shakes out a bit. If I'm wrong, then the blinders have finally fallen off the masses and the cronies have long since unloaded their longs and are short.
Took an at the money calendar bull call spread on TNA for a ride with the short leg expiring tomorrow to help finance the long side a month out. Nothing too crazy.
Entered a Covered call position on USO today as well with a really cheap Jan 16 protective put. Plan on rolling the call each week until oil gets over priced again...which could be a looooong time from now.
teh "blinders have finally fallen off" teh "masses "
Stop it, you're killin me! lulz
It's also at the weekly 100 simple MA, which seemed to hold last Oct for a big bounce. I assume the bigger money uses weekly's, but we may be in a new paradigm, but you're right in not assuming a change until you see evidence. You're more an option expert than I (big understatement), but am I correct in assuming that, given how far we are in RUT from key Daily moving avgs, tomorrow's OPEX won't see as much of a pinning impact, just possible dip-buying (?)
Hard to say right here...I look to open intrest throughout the week to give me some clues. If you look at the put and call OI on IWM you could read todays action several ways at the moment...in the morning I may get a better idea of what happened today in terms of whether todays volume was closing or opening positions...
You know sometimes people sell puts in hopes they get excersised...sometimes they buy calls with the intention of excersising. If you want to spark a rally, just cause an imbalance in the system by excersising large blocks of in the money options and all of a sudden everyone is scrambling to meet their margin/fed/reg-t calls in order to deliver the underlying or cover the excersise induced short...1000 ways these guys have of skinning a cat to get momentum in their favor.
If I look at TNA weeklys, looks like big money knew a fall was in the cards....put OI is unusually high compared to most weeks and has been high for awhile this week....and they were buying them deep in the money to minimize premium. Call and Put OI suggests a lot of bearish market spreads that all worked out this week...a lot of this is conjecture but sometimes a picture emerges throughout the week that is not necessarily 100% accurate but shows a bias.
For example this weeks TNA 88 and 87 calls have an OI of nearly the same 1280 by 1256...this is the same person who has been making this play for the last several months...when the rut goes up large they enter way out of the money call spreads...long the 88 and short the 87 in this case...they may only be making 5 or 10 cents on that spread but I see it get opened regularly...thats $6-12K per week if they are right with a low probability of being wrong and only $110K at risk if they are....which they would then just roll until they get a reversal. I know for a fact what they are up to cause I routinely play this strategy when we get absurd pumps.
Well thanks, JMF, for such detailed reply, it seems even those of us who don't directly trade options can benefit by taking a gander at OI for various strikes. Good luck.
At the close
Dow is down $358
Nasdaq is down $141
S & P 500 is down $43
from Yahoo Finance
are we off the lows? lol
This is an outrage. I demand an investigation. Get those brokers back in here. Turn those machines back ooooooooon!
The CNBC clowns are going to have to dust off those dow 10,000 hats again.
It seems they are doomed for all eternity to keep revisiting them
Wait until tomorrow's trading. Our Federal Reserve will show the Chinese Plunge Protection Team how things are really done!! Go USA!!!
This is an outrage, I demand an investigation. [/mortimer]
People had become to believe the omnipotence of the Fed/Government to prop up stock prices in perpetuity. I think the recent attempts to do so in China that have failed have more than a few people scared. They are finally realizing that if everyone but the government is selling things will still go down
They built a house of straw. The thundering algoz sputtered and stopped. Their leaders talked and talked and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men.
On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice. And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed.
Except for one ZHer armed with an AK-47, and a Honda full of silver...
dont forget the Smith and Wesson...its the original point and click interface
Those things go BANG!
Yours must be out of ammo!
~30 days left before the meeting. How many more days of this before December becomes the new target..?
the meeting is irrelevant
September 29th is the date
I'm thinking Oct 1
New fiscal year for the gov't, no budget, so they go into shutdown
How many days until *they say December is the target.*
Im really not liking seeing this style sentiment on engineering.com A place that decidedly very little finance news rears its ugly head
"So what do we do? In the short term, we need the Fed to put any interest rate increases on hold. We’d also better pray that the equities and real estate bubble, inflated by quantitative easing, doesn’t burst just when American manufacturers are getting a handle on cost and quality issues."
http://www.engineering.com/AdvancedManufacturing/ArticleID/10549/U-S-Headed-for-500-000-Lost-Manufacturing-Jobs.aspx
Im feeling bullish on tin foil
just another day
glueing kugerrands on the old ladies cat...
Here's my TA on the deer chart:
The deer are moving from the lower left to the upper right.
I'm calling bullshit on this blatant lie from Google.
http://i.imgur.com/OYOgXjX.png
Damn Bear! That is funny.
The "rate hike tantrum" is rearing its ugly head...
I never gamble or make predictions because I am always wrong and I always lose...in economics anyway, not in my spiritual life and hamanity and history learnings, but gambling? I always lose, and on a really good day I break even. But I am going to branch out cause I dont care anyway, I am not in the stock market and all I lose is my fellow zerohedgers laughing at me, and I am already use to that....So here goes: I say the DJIA stays flat tomorrow. Ok, I said it...lets see what happens.
If it follows the 2008 pattern, next day or two will be PPT ramp-ups, and we'll see a series of shocks and ramps (including inexplicable end-of-day mega ramps) until finally it can't be held together anymore and the big one lets loose.
I say wait to see what China does overnight. Black Friday came out of nowhere in 1929
As an outsider to the financial markets and global economics, but rather one who studied and trained in infinite math (Physics major), rather than finite math, I must say I'm fascinated by all that is the financial World and the Stock Market.
And I've learned alot (one would hope) by visiting ZeroHedge for the past several years.
The one chart that amazes me, and is very clear to me, from above, is the one of Oil prices versus Gold. That chart is very telling, indeed, and much can be learned from that one single graph!
yeah I just come for the deer.
I read the articles AND look at the pictures.
The pictures in this one are particularly interesting - bit short on charts though.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-20/fraud-company-trying-sell-share...
makes you wonder if the saudi's are going to slam the brakes on oil production here soon
http://www.macrotrends.net/1380/gold-to-oil-ratio-historical-chart
Thanks for that link!
Seriously, that one chart (Au vs. Oil) was an epiphany for me! I would suppose an entire doctoral thesis could be done on that one, simple theme!
yer welcome, they got alot of nice easy to read charts there
bring back Helicopter Ben...nothing beats a good QE high
Hot off the Presses, US Treasuries, TIC Data for Foreign Registered Ownership.
No change in China Holdings.
http://www.treasury.gov/ticdata/Publish/mfh.txt
China, Mainland, $1271.2 Billion
Belgium, $207.7 Billion
Luxembourg, $184.0 Billion
Hong Kong, $181.3 Billion
India, $117.0 Billion
Black Thursday?
You can't cheat the calendar!
SMH is on track
Black Friday tomorrow?
Tis Nuts.
FBN was talking to a suit from S&P Capital IQ (McGraw-Hill Financial) near the market close, and I quote:
"You only lose money when you actually sell out of positions"
As the selloff continued, and several interruptions later by the host as the DOW kept falling below 17,000, he delivered another gem:
"What I tell investors is, 'you're going to be amazed by the speed with which the market tends to recover from corrections and bears'."
His suit and tie were a bit askew and there was a stridency in his voice, so I don't know whether trust him or not. /s
Thank you, that's funny.
A HIGH negative number. Most sheeple need some time to digest...
Henceforth, let this day be known as Barberous (relic) Thurday
Gold at 1150 and silver at 15.5 yellenbux isn't my definition of 'soaring'.
Toto, something tells me we're not in Kansas anymore
i'm still here...and it's sunny
THIS IS THE START of a very painful period of time for Americans.
I can hardly believe that more mutual fund managers didn't take defensive positions. Many Americans who have 401K's will see their life savings enviscerated over the next few weeks & months.
Like I said on another thread ... I fully expect to see a lot of Hedge Fund managers and CEO's bail out of the system completely now. They "cashed in" while the going was good. They will grab their profits and take them offshore. You should expect to see wholesale selling, while these people try to get a good "exit price" for the stock holdings. WATCH IT HAPPEN !!!
American stock holders, and hedge fund groupies, are really gullible.
Couldn't happen a nicer bunch of fucking bullies, and warmongers who think the USA owns the world.
You assholes that check negatives: You don't like what he wrote. So you agree we should spend old people's social security on the largest war machine the world has ever seen, invade several countries at once and burn innocent children alive. Fuck you. If you wrote to your congress person to oppose it, different story. If you just sit around and let it happen, as far as I'm concerned, you did it.
Yep all culpable and they will suffer the COLLECTIVE karmic retribution.
Slow learners.
You're coming with us you Western European "aligned in common accord" ass is coming with us. Get your fuckin asshole gel primed cuz your colon is getting pressed too.
Wanna bet?
Hell yeah I'll take that bet. Whole world is going down on this one. You didn't start it, I didn't start it, but you yours and mine are all gonna eat a big shit sandwich together.
Who are you kidding.The only way to change the system is to rollout the guillotines. Anything short of that is just a waste of time and effort.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/21...
silverer, I did do it. now what? you never did it, did you? nobody gets out alive. pussy's never did nuthin, just ask yellen when they come for her. Hitler did kinda know something ,gotta give him that..now again what are you guilty of?
I can fully agree with Europeans throwing verbal shit at our bought and paid for politicians, but at the American citizenry, not so much.
I think Europe has its fair share of corrupt leaders too.
It's the old double Axel climaxing with the final bendover. What a show! Ooo!
that herd of deer is growing...
so, black friday on tap? monday?
or is there one last dead cat unicorn skittle shit magic for no logical reason bounce left?
who's going to come out and BTFD this time? anybody?
or is this god awful shit show of centrally planned stupidity finally reaching it's inevitable conclusion, which if the bottom is indeed about to fall out it's happening a bit sooner than I expected.
going on vacation next week and I can't help but wonder if I will still have a job when it's over...
still, to be honest I've got the popcorn and I wouldn't mind a little fire to roast it over.
just so long as it isn't of the nuclear variety.
I'm afraid you're right marcus. When all else fails, they go to war. Or, it comes here. It's all they know.
I'll stick with your call of the god awful shit show. I liquidated all my equities to cash. Nuked 'em from orbit. Just to be sure...
if u sell now, how are you going to take advantage of QE for ever?
Omega - I'm curious to see how many billions in naked shorts it's going to take to keep gold and silver down. Hoo Ha!
Only if you rush out and buy artwork immediately.
At least we finished off the lows of today!
Yeah. Well put! But it's kinda like being on the giant roller coaster, in that first car as it just crests the hill. It even seems to go slowly that first 20 feet or so going down, but then it gets the momentum of the rest of the shareholders, I mean seatholders behind you, and you really rocket down!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiMHTK15Pik&spfreload=10
Tyler, +1 for Apocalypse Now.
Ah, hell. Plus for Ron Burgundy as well. That one really fits today.
I love the smell of dead Americunts in the morning.
ummm, I think that smell is your mom, dude.
I think its you sisters snatch thats filling your nostrils there dude.
You think it would be trapped under her burkah but when you bathe monthly, what should you expect?
I can't wait for those lazy lowlife paper shufflers who gloat about buying 175 dollar burgers to jump off of buildings.
No sympathy for warmongering Americans. NONE
The plan is to take you down with America.
Laughing at you sucker...Your banks are filled with American Paper.
Worthless coupons.
Enjoy your lack and starvation.
NO way is this a serious down day! Unless I see a unicorn or clown vomiting a rainbow I'm not concerned!
An important message from the President of the United States
My fellow Americans, ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv4kp4ZnSuE
Its 2300 CET (Central European Time) here. Lets see what HongKong does in a couple of hours.
They are imploding as planned.
When the Federal Reserve stopped QE it also stopped the flow of the spice to jazz those Asian Markets. They knew that they could collapse China...and Europe...any time that they pleased.
And your leaders were PAID OFF so that you, and you fellow countrymen, can personally suffer.
That is why your Central Bank is stuffed with worthless FED paper.
What a socialist Eurotrash loser.
Laughing at you. You probably think that you have a choice and actually vote??? LMAO.
Cue Rally Time Monkey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmfE4KAZicY
I HEREBY DECLARE ...
20 August, 2015: "JOHN HUSSMAN'S DAY OF REVENGE"
The system ignored Dr. John Hussman, but his advice in 2015 was superb! Risk is never dead ... it re-surfaces when you least expect it.
ben? ben? alan? alan? save me,you promised when that bad day came you would be there.. I am just an old yenta, don't let this happen.....iit's not my fault!! ... then it does...noooooooo
Deer Ben and Janet in the headlights,
Everything is so starting to feel like 07 on steroids and I was wondering if you could possibly print another trillion so things might settle down a bit? I know you have taken on an extra 4 trillion on the books and another 20+ trillion off the books so what's another trillion going to hurt anyway? Heck the American debt has only jumped a mere 9 trillion since you started the experiment so what could possibly go wrong? I know many of the countries you and the ECB bailed out are in total capitulation however I know you're economic science rockets and will pull us out of this situation. Then again you were so sure you could fight a debt crisis with more debt so what's another trillion anyway? Come on, it's only a T from one keynesian to another, I know we can make this happen...
Sincerely,
Paul K
Just checked my current account on my phone app , pensions are in. Same time every month like clockwork. We are funde d 80 years in advance and its UNTOUCHABLE. as per our Constiution.
We are Number 4..
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/21...
AIG Executive Talks
Jackie and Dunlap express America's outrage over the AIG bonuses in their interview with one of the most hated men in America... Shimmysham the AIG Dummy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owy0-3CJkVI
Facebook is still worth 255 billion. We have a long way to go.
They aren't getting a dime from me. So what is it based on??
Every single "new media" company assumes their advertizing revenue is going to double (or more) to catch up with their market valuations.
Yet the entire global pot of advertizing dollars isn't growing. Does anyone see a problem?
Facebook P/E of 100
That's the new normal???
And....Tomorrow everything will go back up 1 - 2% as everything is great again.
pop goes the weasel
Right, 2 percent up , 5 percent down, 2 up, 5 down, 2 up 5 down
gotta' crank on dem 2x and 3x thangs
BTW, I think this year is more 2007. I think 2016 will be more like 2008. BUt I could be wrong.
The crash will be mid 2016 before the elections just like the last time and the one before that.
Shemitah?
smegma
Chartz are Hawt!
Lowest prices above spot for Gold, Silver Platinum and Palladium https://www.eurgold.eu
The land mines are getting closer together! Feckin hell some of those charts are nasty reading. I think that poster who is calling mid 2016 as D-Day is on the money.
www.teamramgold.com/about-us
I do love the deer with their eyes reflecting the jacking light:
a) they are frozen,
b) they are targetz,
c) "You may fire when ready, Gridley!"
Four Legs Good 'n' shit, but seriously deer, get the fuck outta' there.
oh ...
- Ned
Does the world need shareholders that don't do jack shit?? I think not.
The world needs gardenerss and people that build things.
You almost disappointed me Tyler.....waiting til the end for the deer.....made up for it with a whole herd though.
Bitcoin $236
"The world needs gardeners and people that build things."
Spot on! That's exacty what the world needs now!!
The worlds gonna need people who know how to make pine boxes and dig deep holes.
Did you see the Four Chinese Red Arrows of the Apocalypse?
Well, I can tell you the neighbors on either side of me have bigger problems than this stock market thing. House payments, car payments, credit card payments. Shortened work week. Those dammed foreclosure notices in the front windows will be back real soon. Sorry to see them go - nice people (without a clue).
Looks like oil has just about bottomed or gold has just about peaked.
You forgot the /sarc.
There's an important difference about this downturn in 2015-2016, that did not exist in the years 2002-2003 or 2008. Investors who are just looking to "buy the dip" are going to get burned.
Last time I checked, it was 'trade at your own risk'. Anyone greedy and moronic enough to trade in this market is probably too stupid to have money in the first place.
I think this clip is called for once again
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DT7bX-B1Mg
Robert Duvall says at the end of Apackalips Now, 'someday this wars gonna end'....WRONG. This war is never going to fucking end, so we might as well enjoy it. It would be cool to have someone like Marlon Brandos character in that movie, Colonel Kurtz as the next POTUS. How could he possibly be worse than the gay monkey we have had. Just think of it, all of the politicians with their heads on sticks out on main street.
Muppet holocaust flash sale incoming.
It's clear to me what the Fed's next action will be: Raise rates AND kick in QE4.
Just need to open the market up to Chinese farmers.
No worries It is all Non GAAP absent FX and massive stock buybacks. Don't believe me just go to Salesfarce.com FarceBoook and MSM... nothing here look away.
http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/08/18/425206/Africa-Djibouti-US-milita...
and we were thrown off MSM for Anwar al-Awlaki murder of 16 year old...
China China China China USSA USSA USSA USSA
"Sweet Caroline" "Sweet Caroline" "Sweet Caroline" "Sweet Caroline" "Sweet Caroline"
The Wall Street Vampires would never use their own money to bid up commodities. They are expecting QE forever.
I actually think Yellen may attempt to raise rates to 2% or so even if it looks like we are in deflation simply because she believes it would be best for the economy longer term.
Of course, she is going to be heavily criticizes on ZH no matter what she does.
As far as Energy goes... they should change the name of WTI to WTF.
now that was fookin funny
This is not just any Shemitah, this is the "grand" Shemitah where the Pope goes to the United Nations and announces the New World Order, and Madonna performs in DC and does her satanic rutuals right before the Pope goes to Congress for the first time, on the heels of the fourth blood moon! Now, throw in an economic collapse, CERN opening a portal and releasing the Nephilim into our reality, and you got yourself the makins of a serious shitstorm!
Now, you know I love the chart porn, best I've seen in awhile, but can't hold a candle to a grand Shemitah!
That fucking Hitlery picture is priceless. I'll bet she makes that face when Huma Weiner sticks the Dildo up her ass when she's expecting it in her big wrinkly gaping pussy. lmao
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMuka0kWgAAlZdX.jpg
She's waiting for the firing squad.
Price of OIL down= big earthquake on WS comming
US’s Saudi Oil Deal from Win-Win to Mega-Loose
http://journal-neo.org/2015/08/08/us-s-saudi-oil-deal-from-win-win-to-me...
I have a sneaky suspicion that this is why house sales are up. Everyone getting out of the market and into something they think is safe. Real Estate.
Certainly isn't young couples buying their first home.
This is all because I questioned ZH's accuracy a couple of days ago. Sorry, my bad :)
This is all because I questioned ZH's accuracy a couple of days ago. Sorry, my bad :)
Meanwhile, the prices of Bitcoin and Litecoin are recovering from the recent crash. Get in while you still can.
Hey I was fishing on the Sacramento river today and caught a 4.2 Trillion POUND tARP
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_zd_QPabcY
Japan cracked 20K. Down over 1.6%
All the carries are going to flush, tits up, etc. All the borrowed dollars have now created CONTAGION. And this was heavily unexpected.
Forget the deer. Bring out the TITS UP chart
No worries - the Fed will fix everything by "normalizing" interest rates.
this is nothing a 20% devaluation of the dollar and a coupla trillion(paid out as citizen bonuses, for being such great sheeple) on the fed balance sheet won't cure. btfd!
40 charts of fixed, rigged, crooked, manipulated (with the government's blessing) markets.
Apocalypse Now had to be the worst movie depicting that war of all time. That was my unit and we didn't do any of that shit! Especially the dope crap.
Want a decent movie,,, try Firebase Gloria. A little over on a few things but overall fairly close and shows how well Americans could fight when the need arose.
Merikans are so broke it ain't funny. 'tis moar robust every day. It's embarrassing to see Piglosi or Barry getting up saying how "awesome" the economy is. Too bad Reed resigned; he's more fun to watch then Ronnie McD.
Read as far as Silverdoctors.com. You can bring the double-A players with you to the big league game, but don't expect them to take to the field.