This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

California - A Deluge Followed by Mega Drought?

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

 

Both NOAA and the Australian Meteorologists issued El Nino updates in the past 24 hours. The weekly numbers that were released confirm that an historic event is taking place. It now is (nearly) certain that the most significant El Nino in recorded history will be with us over the next five months. From the Aussie weather geeks:

The 2015 El Niño is now the strongest El Niño since 1997–98.

The last time we were close to the current El Nino conditions was the fall/winter of 1997/1998. National Geographic has this to say of the 1997 El Nino:

It rose out of the tropical Pacific in late 1997, bearing more energy than a million Hiroshima bombs. By the time it had run its course eight months later, the giant El Niño of 1997-98 had deranged weather patterns around the world, killed an estimated 2,100 people, and caused at least 33 billion [U.S.] dollars in property damage.

At its peak, the 1997 El Nino index reached a record high of 2.3. This extreme level was nearly reached over the past week, there is every indication that it will move higher in the coming months.

The 1997-98 results:

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.35.29 AM

We just hit 2.2 on the weekly numbers. This number will climb over the coming months:

 

weeklysst

 

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.39.51 AM

What does a super El Nino mean for California? Record rains are coming soon! The historical results from the 1997 Nino event:

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.51.57 AM

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.52.13 AM

National Geographic sums up the consequences of a weather system that has the power of 1m nukes:

In the U.S. mudslides and flash floods flattened communities from California to Mississippi, storms pounded the Gulf Coast, and tornadoes ripped Florida.

The effects of the 1997 Nino were felt globally:

Forest fires burned furiously in Sumatra, Borneo, and Malaysia, forcing drivers to use their headlights at noon. The haze traveled thousands of miles to the west into the ordinarily sparkling air of the Maldive Islands, limiting visibility to half a mile [0.8 kilometer] at times.

Temperatures reached 108°F [42°C] in Mongolia; Kenya’s rainfall was 40 inches [100 centimeters] above normal; central Europe suffered record flooding that killed 55 in Poland and 60 in the Czech Republic; and Madagascar was battered with monsoons and cyclones.

Okay - It's going to rain in the Pacific West the next four months. If history is any guide, the rainfall will reach record levels. Extreme flooding is a probable outcome. As the rain/snow falls the epic drought that is now going on will abate. The rivers and reservoirs will refill by the end of February 2016. BUT THEN WHAT?

If history is any guide the extreme El Nino will be followed by a crash in ocean temperatures. By next summer it is increasing likely that the world will be facing La Nina conditions. The 1997 El Nino was followed by one of the longest periods of La Nina conditions in history.

noaaLT

Put this together and what do you get? It now very likely that extreme weather conditions will be with us through this winter. The West and the South will be inundated with rain. But a year from now we will be facing much different conditions. The La Nina that will be with us in 12 months will bring with it very dry conditions for California. This drought is likely to last for years.

 

2851147936_f403456217

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 09/01/2015 - 13:10 | 6495842 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

Eastern white oak makes for good acorn eatin'.

Although I admit that after processing thousands of Juglans Nigra, the trees make better lumber.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:29 | 6495267 Lokking4AnEdge
Lokking4AnEdge's picture

El Nino should cause a rise in the prices of Rice and Coffee.....

Also potential for a draught in Australia (grains.....)

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:28 | 6495259 large_wooden_badger
large_wooden_badger's picture

Endless drought, flash floods, mudslides, forest fires, earthquakes, surf radiation, oil spills, mass die-offs, crushing taxes, papparazi, what's not to love about CA? Is anyone surprised the place is emptying out en masse? The bad news is these folks are bringing their vile californicated ways to a town near you. A lot like when all the Massholes colonized Southern New Hampshire "to get away from the madness in MA.". Funny thing is they brought the nanny state with them.

Wed, 09/02/2015 - 04:04 | 6498652 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

You hang on to your comforting delusions of CA.. Keeps you miserables out of our cool state!

Hello?? Ever take a train ride up the spine of the East coast?
D.C., up through NY and Connecticut....
Frighteningly decayed slums and infrastructure and depressing-depressed people and weather and "scenery"..
And for you flyovers..That Rust Belt/Corn Fields ride is nearly as disheartening and stupefying.

Other than the hipper ghettos of LA, and Oakland, we don't have any of that here. A train ride up CA is beautifully scenic and relatively new and robust looking. Will make you shut-ins want to move here (I did).

Please don't!
90% of the aholes that honk horns here predictably have out of state licenses..true story!

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 14:29 | 6496239 ebear
ebear's picture

"the bad news is these folks are bringing their vile californicated ways to a town near you."

Wherever you go, there you are.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:30 | 6495275 Obamamerica
Obamamerica's picture

This is why Texas needs to build a wall around its entire border. No Socialists allowed

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:45 | 6495341 Marley
Marley's picture

"Socialism is an economic system characterised by social ownership and/or social control of the means of production and co-operative management of the economy, as well as a political theory and movement that aims at the establishment of such a system." 

 

Since Texas receives $1 or every $0.75 it submits in federal taxes, doesn't that make Texas a socialistic state?

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 17:28 | 6497213 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

Nice to see you back marley.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 17:11 | 6497123 gramps
gramps's picture

"Since Texas receives $1 or every $0.75 it submits in federal taxes, doesn't that make Texas a socialistic state?"

 

Could you provide a link to that data? According to wikipedia Texas federal spending to revenue ratio .56 in other words they pay in twice as much as they recieve.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_taxation_and_spending_by_state

Not that I think wikipedia is a reputable source but it's better than your made up, pro-socialist, liberal bs with no source link.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 18:26 | 6497473 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Don't you know TEXAS is all that and an order of fries. Even when they get mowed down by a bunch of Mexcans they win.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 17:58 | 6497351 viahj
viahj's picture

a lot of the federal moula is for all the federal armed forces based in Texas

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 16:07 | 6496752 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

Sorry, but no. The socialist professors who write such definitions do their best to avoid the practical reality of socialism as it has always been carried out.

Socialism is an economic system characterized by political control (and ownership) of the means of production and political management of the economy. The only difference between socialism and fascism is that fascism permits the illusion of private property rights as opposed to direct state ownership of productive assets. But in both cases, the state directs exactly how such assets are to be used.

The orders come from those at the top. Those at the bottom must obey or be branded as (insert derogatory term here) subject to re-education, confiscation of assets and, if necessary, complete liquidation.

Socialism is a complete abrogation of the individual rights of man as espoused in the Enlightenment. It is, in essence, a Counter-Enlightenment designed to overthrow the dangerous idea that individuals are responsible only to God or their own consciences and owe no fealty to their earthly overlords.

Funny how the children of the socialist overlords seem to end up running things after dad has crossed the river. Much better than evil old monarchy, don't you think?

It should also be noted that socialism is designed not as an end state but merely a way station on the way to full top-down control of every single aspect of life. In this regard, the country on Earth that is nearest to an actual end-state socialist utopia is North Korea. The state owns everything. All people must work diligently to carry out the plans of the State and anyone who questions the sanity or utility of any such plans gets a quick trip to a very unpleasant place where they are convinced to think proper socialist thoughts.

 

 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 23:27 | 6498430 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

socialism = oligarchy (rule by a few)

communism = oligarchy

democracy = oligarchy

dictatorship = oligarchy

The only other forms of government are Monarchy (rule by one) and Republic (rule of law) and those for all intents and purposes have been replaced by oligarchies.

oligarchy = banksters/corporate interests

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:26 | 6495598 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Hush Marley...  the Texas Ego is a very fragile thing and you don't want to tarnish the image they have of themselves with something as trivial as FACTS..... or God forbid pointing out the hypocrisy or flaws in their logic...

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 17:12 | 6497129 gramps
gramps's picture

Got a link dipshit?

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:04 | 6495130 joego1
joego1's picture

Wow 20" of rain in So Cal. That ain't even spit in places that actually get rain. The dumb fucks down there should be building storage so they can use it down the road but instead the will be crying about being flooded out, watching it all run out to the sea. Not even any delta smelt to worry about only floating meth addicts.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 16:50 | 6497027 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Evil evil dams?  The horror.  This is California.  There are Californians here.  

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 17:56 | 6497342 viahj
viahj's picture

no, just buckets.  lots and lots of buckets.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:03 | 6495125 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"The La Nina that will be with us in 12 months will bring with it very dry conditions for California. This drought is likely to last for years."

 

It depends on whether the Pacific Decadal Oscillator changes or not in the meantime.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:51 | 6495066 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

bearing more energy than a million Hiroshima bombs........ El Nino in comparison killed an estimated 2,100 people -----Hiroshima killed 100's of thousands and millions in its aftermath from radiation DNA damage

 

more endless exaggeration by Krasting - should stick to stories about the end of the world if Social Security continues -

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 17:03 | 6497084 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

You didn't catch that that passage was a quote from an article in National Geographic?

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:31 | 6494984 square wave
square wave's picture

Geo-engineering is really taking it's toll here. This sucks. Bunch of bastardos....

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:22 | 6494959 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

 

Mr. Krasting was 'out in front' of this earlier this year with an article posted right here about an El Nino forming in the east Pacific.    Then again, look at how things can change:

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-22/aint-no-nino

Then, in March:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-17/pam-was-so-big-she

 

Last December (2014), California was actually above normal in rainfall by a small amount, and then...   Someone shut the spigot off for 8 weeks straight, and nothing but a spit or two after that and it was over for the season.   That's how bizarre it's getting.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:26 | 6494953 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I hope this doesn't have a negative impact on wine. I better stock up.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:11 | 6495166 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

How do you have a negative impact on whine?  Laughter?  

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:17 | 6494942 McCormick No. 9
McCormick No. 9's picture

PLease, one disaster at a time. Right now we're in the OH MY GOD IT'S A DROUGHT DISASTER!!!!! It might be followed by the FUCK ME THERE"S SOOOO MUCH WATER!!!!! disaster. We shouldn't count our chickens until they hatch.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:01 | 6495122 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

It's a false flag operation being run by Chinese oligarchs in order to get better price on CA real estate - don't cha know. 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:09 | 6494911 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Looks like a graph of the DOW over the last month or so.  Is the FED screwing up the weather too?

 

They haven't been aroudn long enought to screw up the climate, but I'll bet they are working on it.

 

Pete

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:26 | 6494966 DOT
DOT's picture

As you have read many times on these threads, the Fed's printing press requires the use of fossil fuel. This has led to the global increase in CO2 which, in turn, according to the "Climate Prediction Center" and to our erstwhile predictor, Mr.K, will cause widespread calamity.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 14:33 | 6496251 ebear
ebear's picture

That's nothing compared to the amount of CO2 produced by bitcoin.

And that's not even counting the mining part.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:07 | 6494907 Vylahkinnen
Vylahkinnen's picture

Oh boy! This is a weak article. California does not need rain! Come on. They have the largest oceanic division just in front of them. Put a straw in it and make it usable. I am tired of excuses. Since when has America become a nation of takers? It is a nation of makers, goddamit. Besides, if that plan goes horribly wrong, you can always look north, right? Canada has plenty of usable water and a weak hipster population. Remember - America will always be a land of opportunity! I can't believe that you needed me to tell you that. Me. Of all people.

However...if nothing works out...you might think about relocating. You can always go Swiss, Bruce. Major advantage.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:16 | 6494928 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

I guess what I've heard about coming out of a time warp being a very difficult adjustment is true.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:05 | 6494904 piceridu
piceridu's picture

Thanks Bruce...nice to see you post again. Hope to see more soon!

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:05 | 6494898 Element
Element's picture

"Predictions are hard, especially about the future."

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:01 | 6494885 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Wait, does this mean the northern part of the country will experience SNOW in the winter?

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 09:58 | 6494880 nevadan
nevadan's picture

Hey Bruce,  Long time no see.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 09:58 | 6494875 CHC
CHC's picture

Love the drawing/painting on the side of the wall - child with umbrella. 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:15 | 6494930 Paveway IV
Tue, 09/01/2015 - 09:48 | 6494844 milo_hoffman
milo_hoffman's picture

Apparently the people in California do not realize they are living in a desert and have been totally spoiled by unusually wet conditions for the last 100 years.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 16:03 | 6496761 InflammatoryResponse
InflammatoryResponse's picture

milo...

 

you read Cadillac Desert?

 

 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:25 | 6495575 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

no, this is hollywood where special effects can make you think you live in the tropics

with unlimited water

where every house has a lawn

every farm grows plants that would normally die

and every politician loves Linda Ronstadt

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:53 | 6495077 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

see sam kineson on deserts, lol

Ethiopians have no food? we have deserts too, we just dont live there. oh oh ooohhh

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:41 | 6495025 woolly mammoth
woolly mammoth's picture

And that's "The rest of the story"

 

Good to see you Bruce.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 09:46 | 6494839 Salsa Verde
Salsa Verde's picture

Bullish:  Landslide insurance fraud.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 09:31 | 6494771 laomei
laomei's picture

tut-tut

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 09:39 | 6494806 barliman
barliman's picture

 

there, there?

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 09:43 | 6494824 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Have the politicians in California devoted one cent to enlarging reservoirs or setting up groundwater catchment basins?  No.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 21:15 | 6498084 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

Politicians are useless scum, especially ones with leftish proclivities, but really all.  That the Kalifornia types have not done anything to catch some of the groundwater runoff is quite simply amazing.  But then our national politicians havent done anything to harden the electrical distribution system against the EMP spike that is surely coming from the sun - a prophylactic that would cost less than the government wastes in a week.  When it does happen, 100 million or more Americans will die.  And the morons will say it could not be foreseen.  You cant make up the craven lunacy of the ruling class.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 16:42 | 6496988 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Well they did cover some reservoirs with black floating balls, so you got that going for you.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:49 | 6495732 Salsa Verde
Salsa Verde's picture

The Sierra Club and the Coastal Commission have made sure absolutely no infrastructure upgrades will happen to the California water supply no matter how much sense it makes.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!