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California - A Deluge Followed by Mega Drought?

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

 

Both NOAA and the Australian Meteorologists issued El Nino updates in the past 24 hours. The weekly numbers that were released confirm that an historic event is taking place. It now is (nearly) certain that the most significant El Nino in recorded history will be with us over the next five months. From the Aussie weather geeks:

The 2015 El Niño is now the strongest El Niño since 1997–98.

The last time we were close to the current El Nino conditions was the fall/winter of 1997/1998. National Geographic has this to say of the 1997 El Nino:

It rose out of the tropical Pacific in late 1997, bearing more energy than a million Hiroshima bombs. By the time it had run its course eight months later, the giant El Niño of 1997-98 had deranged weather patterns around the world, killed an estimated 2,100 people, and caused at least 33 billion [U.S.] dollars in property damage.

At its peak, the 1997 El Nino index reached a record high of 2.3. This extreme level was nearly reached over the past week, there is every indication that it will move higher in the coming months.

The 1997-98 results:

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.35.29 AM

We just hit 2.2 on the weekly numbers. This number will climb over the coming months:

 

weeklysst

 

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.39.51 AM

What does a super El Nino mean for California? Record rains are coming soon! The historical results from the 1997 Nino event:

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.51.57 AM

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.52.13 AM

National Geographic sums up the consequences of a weather system that has the power of 1m nukes:

In the U.S. mudslides and flash floods flattened communities from California to Mississippi, storms pounded the Gulf Coast, and tornadoes ripped Florida.

The effects of the 1997 Nino were felt globally:

Forest fires burned furiously in Sumatra, Borneo, and Malaysia, forcing drivers to use their headlights at noon. The haze traveled thousands of miles to the west into the ordinarily sparkling air of the Maldive Islands, limiting visibility to half a mile [0.8 kilometer] at times.

Temperatures reached 108°F [42°C] in Mongolia; Kenya’s rainfall was 40 inches [100 centimeters] above normal; central Europe suffered record flooding that killed 55 in Poland and 60 in the Czech Republic; and Madagascar was battered with monsoons and cyclones.

Okay - It's going to rain in the Pacific West the next four months. If history is any guide, the rainfall will reach record levels. Extreme flooding is a probable outcome. As the rain/snow falls the epic drought that is now going on will abate. The rivers and reservoirs will refill by the end of February 2016. BUT THEN WHAT?

If history is any guide the extreme El Nino will be followed by a crash in ocean temperatures. By next summer it is increasing likely that the world will be facing La Nina conditions. The 1997 El Nino was followed by one of the longest periods of La Nina conditions in history.

noaaLT

Put this together and what do you get? It now very likely that extreme weather conditions will be with us through this winter. The West and the South will be inundated with rain. But a year from now we will be facing much different conditions. The La Nina that will be with us in 12 months will bring with it very dry conditions for California. This drought is likely to last for years.

 

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Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:31 | 6495281 Obamamerica
Obamamerica's picture

Save the smelt!

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:50 | 6495062 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

That wouldnt provide the needed pain

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:50 | 6495061 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Nothing in Cali can be done without full approval of the greenie's, and since they don't approve of anything, nothing will happen......

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:25 | 6495239 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

Not even El Nino.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:56 | 6495260 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

El Nino can do many things and even a strong one doesn't necessarily mean rain for Cali, so bring out the virgin sacrifices to Gaia.....

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 14:35 | 6496264 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

Gaia had better answer or they're in deep doo-doo...

http://victorhanson.com/wordpress/?p=8517

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:28 | 6494975 square wave
square wave's picture

They'll be making the ghettos more energy efficient, or building a high speed rail line that no one will use. You know, really important things.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article31464677.html

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:15 | 6494926 large_wooden_badger
large_wooden_badger's picture

Who needs reseviors and catchment basins when they have protected smelt? It's an eco-friendly paradise, I tells ya.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 09:42 | 6494821 DOT
DOT's picture

my, my

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:36 | 6495001 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

now, now...

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 22:13 | 6498251 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

Wink wink

 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 16:54 | 6497044 Nostradumbass
Nostradumbass's picture

tsk - tsk

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:26 | 6495249 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Uh, Bruce,... I hate to break it to you, but:

Every deluge throughout history has been followed by a period of drought.

It's called the 'weather cycle.'

Even during my own infinitesimal lifespan (in geologic terms), I have lived through at least four drought/flood cycles here in Kalifornia.

It's the way life on earth has been since the memory of man runneth not to the contrary...

 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 16:40 | 6496984 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

What happened to the NSA installing cloud seeding devices on all the commercial flights in the US?

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 14:49 | 6496331 barliman
barliman's picture

 

Bruce persists in his AGW trope devotion.

"None of this can be natural! NONE! Do you hear me!"

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:35 | 6495665 Payne
Payne's picture

Yes but how long is the deluge ?  1 year ?  why ?  2 years ?

I have seen many multiple deluge years in a row in CA.  Weather science is very short term in its predictability.

The best that can forecast is a very wet winter followed by unknown conditions to follow.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 18:27 | 6497474 o2sd
o2sd's picture

The Southern Oscillation Index is probably the most reliable long term weather indicator we have. The Pacific is a massive heat sink and the conveyor tends to keep going in a certain direction until it's energy is dissipated, then it reverses.

Last time the El Nino indicator went this high, 99% of the east coast of Australia was in drought. It's gunna be a hot summer with lots of bushfires this year on this side of the pond. Kalifornicated on the other side.

 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 16:37 | 6496968 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

The Sacramento Delta Smelt, for one, thank you.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 16:45 | 6497003 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

He wut Smelt it Delta it.

Wed, 09/02/2015 - 07:52 | 6498946 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

That's a real stinker of a pun.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 14:27 | 6496230 mkkby
mkkby's picture

I remember the winter of 98 from my perch in NW washington.  Over 90 days without seeing the sun come out.  But the rain here is typically light sprinkes, so it's not too bad.

I cannot imagine getting 20+ inches IN A MONTH.  Brutal.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 15:11 | 6496440 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Isn't long droughts followed by heavy rain correlated with earthquakes?  And even if not, shirley we can get a DC spindoctor to fashion a study to that effect.

Shirley!

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 16:06 | 6496779 claytonmoore50
claytonmoore50's picture

Don't call me Shirley!

http://youtu.be/ixljWVyPby0

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 19:19 | 6497654 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

Nature taking after the Fed: More can kicking.

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