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The Non-Premature Death of the U.S. Consumer





Paul Kedrosky has captured some great statistical data from mint.com about how the average U.S. consumer is faring. In a nutshell - plain horrible.

Straight from the horse's mouth (Aaron Patzer, CEO of Mint):

 
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Lehman Bankruptcy Judge James Peck Arrested for Beating Wife





The stress of the "biggest bankruptcy in history" and all those fee applications must really be getting to him.

 
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Ari Kiev On CNBC Right Now, Providing Profound Psych Insight For Free





"Don't focus on the drawdown... The market will rebound...Look for the ephemeral truth."
This stuff is priceless.

 
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Who Says Nobody is Issuing Debt





A statistic that may surprise some, is that January 2009 has seen a record amount of new Investment Grade issues: $104 billion so far. This easily surpasses the 2008 total of $83 billion. Granted, of this tally $61 billion is FDIC-guaranteed paper, but the $43 billion non-financial balance is still much higher than the $28 billion comparable in 2008 and $11 billion in 2007. Even more surprising is that 56% of new issues were BBB rated, up from 25% in December. This is summarized below:

 
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Intelsat New Bond Issue Faring Very Well In Weak Credit Market





Intelsat came to market in a Goldman Sachs syndicated bond offering for $400 million of 8.875% Senior Notes due 1/2015. The B3/BB- issue for reference entity Intelsat Subsidiary Holding Company, had been upsized from $200 million, and was snapped up due to its original issue discount, pricing at 88.5% for an 11.6% yield. The proceeds will be used to pay down existing debt.

 
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Nassim Taleb's Facebook Accountability Initiative





Nassim Taleb of Black Swan and fat tail fame, has created a Facebook site called "Make Bankers Accountable." It is feasible that this could become the 21st equivalent of the million man march on Washington. We fully endorse the initiative. Maybe eventually Obama will realize just how angry the general public is becoming.

 
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First Lehman, Now Goldman Saying Run For Cover





A report released earlier by Goldman thinkers Krag Gregory and John Marshall discussing volatility and options strategy, is recommending loading up the boat on S&P puts. The GS "portfolio strategy" team (we assume this is not the guys on the prop side who usually execute the opposite of whatever the sellside guys preach) expects the market to retest the 750 low in Q1, pretty much what Lehman said over the weekend.

 
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Private Equity Firms About To Get In Line For TARP Handouts





It The Boston Consulting Group and Nassim Taleb are right, and the latter has been right over the past 2 years where everyone else has been massively wrong, then private equity firms are about to get in line for government bail outs.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Who Says Nobody is Issuing Debt





A statistic that may surprise some, is that January 2009 has seen a record amount of new Investment Grade issues: $104 billion so far. This easily surpasses the 2008 total of $83 billion. Granted, of this tally $61 billion is FDIC-guaranteed paper, but the $43 billion non-financial balance is still much higher than the $28 billion comparable in 2008 and $11 billion in 2007. Even more surprising is that 56% of new issues were BBB rated, up from 25% in December. This is summarized below:

 
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Goldman Prices $2 Billion 10 Year Notes Without FDIC Backing





In what many expected to be a test of whether financial companies can raise capital without the implicit guarantee of the government, Goldman managed to price $2 billion of non-FDIC insured notes at 500 bps over comparable treasuries. In absolute terms, the notes priced with a 7.5% coupon to yield 7.779%. While the rate is high, the fact that it could even price is notable as all capital raises by financial institutions in recent months were backed by the full faith of the Federal Reserve's printing presses. The pricing is even more remarkable as today GS stock is down a little over 5%.

 
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Nassim Taleb's Facebook Accountability Initiative





Nassim Taleb of Black Swan and fat tail fame, has created a Facebook site called "Make Bankers Accountable." It is feasible that this could become the 21st equivalent of the million man march on Washington. We fully endorse the initiative. Maybe eventually Obama will realize just how angry the general public is becoming.

 
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Fed Releases Senior Loan Officers Survey - Ugly Results





14:00 *FED RELEASES QUARTERLY SENIOR LOAN OFFICERS SURVEY
14:00 *FED SAYS BANKS REDUCED LIMITS ON LINES OF CREDIT
14:00 *FED SAYS NEARLY 60% OF BANKS TIGHTENED CONSUMER-LOAN TERMS
14:00 *NET 80% OF BANKS TIGHTENED COMMERCIAL REAL-ESTATE LOAN TERMS
14:00 *FED SAYS NET 60% OF BANKS SAW REDUCED BUSINESS-LOAN DEMAND
14:00 *BANKS CITED DETERIORATING ECONOMY IN TIGHTENING LOAN TERMS
14:00 *FED SAYS 90% OF U.S. BANKS INCREASED BUSINESS-LOAN MARGINS
14:00 *FED SAYS 65% OF BANKS MADE IT HARDER TO GET BUSINESS LOANS

 
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Fed Rate Kept at 0%; FOMC Full Statement; Vague On Treasury Purchases





Release Date: January 28, 2009

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.

 
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December New Home Sales Insanely Low: 331,000 Annualized





"New home sales drop to lowest level on record", down 14.7% from 388,000 in November (revised)

 
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Is Fortress Investment Group On The Edge Of Insolvency?





How the mighty have fallen. According to Bloomberg, Fortress (ticker: FIG), which was the first hedge fund to IPO in the heydays of the credit bubble in the summer of 2007 is trying to raise $80 million to fund margin calls associated with its investment in Gagfah, a German residential property operator, as well as two other real estate investment funds, Eurocastle and Nationstar.

 
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