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Nassim Taleb's Facebook Accountability Initiative





Nassim Taleb of Black Swan and fat tail fame, has created a Facebook site called "Make Bankers Accountable." It is feasible that this could become the 21st equivalent of the million man march on Washington. We fully endorse the initiative. Maybe eventually Obama will realize just how angry the general public is becoming.

 
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Fed Releases Senior Loan Officers Survey - Ugly Results





14:00 *FED RELEASES QUARTERLY SENIOR LOAN OFFICERS SURVEY
14:00 *FED SAYS BANKS REDUCED LIMITS ON LINES OF CREDIT
14:00 *FED SAYS NEARLY 60% OF BANKS TIGHTENED CONSUMER-LOAN TERMS
14:00 *NET 80% OF BANKS TIGHTENED COMMERCIAL REAL-ESTATE LOAN TERMS
14:00 *FED SAYS NET 60% OF BANKS SAW REDUCED BUSINESS-LOAN DEMAND
14:00 *BANKS CITED DETERIORATING ECONOMY IN TIGHTENING LOAN TERMS
14:00 *FED SAYS 90% OF U.S. BANKS INCREASED BUSINESS-LOAN MARGINS
14:00 *FED SAYS 65% OF BANKS MADE IT HARDER TO GET BUSINESS LOANS

 
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Fed Rate Kept at 0%; FOMC Full Statement; Vague On Treasury Purchases





Release Date: January 28, 2009

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.

 
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December New Home Sales Insanely Low: 331,000 Annualized





"New home sales drop to lowest level on record", down 14.7% from 388,000 in November (revised)

 
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Is Fortress Investment Group On The Edge Of Insolvency?





How the mighty have fallen. According to Bloomberg, Fortress (ticker: FIG), which was the first hedge fund to IPO in the heydays of the credit bubble in the summer of 2007 is trying to raise $80 million to fund margin calls associated with its investment in Gagfah, a German residential property operator, as well as two other real estate investment funds, Eurocastle and Nationstar.

 
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The Push To Postpone the Inevitable Collapse Is Coming To An End





The only man with cojones to call the depression a depression, David Rosenberg, of what is now Bank of Countrywide Lynch, is reading behind the BS that was this morning's highly suspect GDP number, and expects the current quarter's annualized GDP decline to hit -6.3%! The two items that attract his attention are consumer and capital spending, declining 3.5% and 27.8%, respectively. So where did the fudging occur to result in the upside surprise: inventories.
 
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Update on Geoffrey Raymond's Artistic Trek Thru The Depression





As we have pointed out before, one of the best artistic investments in this depression is possibly the artwork of Geoffrey Raymond.

 
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The Roulette That Is The Massively Disconnected Market Keeps On Spinning





I assume I am not the only one watching the big game of roulette on CNBC right now (i.e. the market). For all those clicking the buy button on E-Trade with the reckless abandon of Gary Busey doing... well, anything he does, we want to point out this interesting analysis on FT Alphaville.

 
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New Issuance Negative Basis Trades at All Time Wides





In another take on the previously discussed basis trade topic, a curious statistic that few have paid attention to is the significant premia new issues have offered to existing comparable CDS spreads on the same issuer. The definition of the new issue premium is the spread of the new issue versus the matched maturity CDS spread.

 
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Late Thursday Headlines





  • Obama calls bonuses shameful, Dodd to seek legal recourse (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg to cut $1 billion worth of services to reduce budget (CBS)
  • Blagojevich removed from office (
 
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Another Tax Fugitive in the Obama Camp





First Geithner, now this. In a developing story, Obama's pick for Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Daschle is apparently on the outs with the IRS as well.

 
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Treasury Needs To Borrow Additional $130 Billion Vs Prior Forecast





15:00 *U.S. TREASURY ANNOUNCES QUARTERLY BORROWING NEEDS
15:00 *U.S. BORROWED $569 BLN IN OCT.-DEC. QTR VS $550 BLN FORECAST
15:00 *TREASURY CASH BALANCE WAS $367 BLN DEC. 31, $259 BLN FROM FED
15:00 *TREASURY SEES $225 BLN CASH BALANCE MARCH 31, $45 BLN JUNE 30
15:00 *U.S. TREASURY SEES BORROWING OF $165 BLN IN APRIL-JUNE QUARTER
15:00 *HIGHER U.S. BORROWING THIS QTR LARGELY DUE TO FED BILL PROGRAM
15:00 *TREASURY TO BORROW $493 BLN THIS QTR VS $368 BLN NOV. FORECAST

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Roulette That Is The Massively Disconnected Market Keeps On Spinning





I assume I am not the only one watching the big game of roulette on CNBC right now (i.e. the market). For all those clicking the buy button on E-Trade with the reckless abandon of Gary Busey doing... well, anything he does, we want to point out this interesting analysis on FT Alphaville.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

New Issuance Negative Basis Trades at All Time Wides





In another take on the previously discussed basis trade topic, a curious statistic that few have paid attention to is the significant premia new issues have offered to existing comparable CDS spreads on the same issuer. The definition of the new issue premium is the spread of the new issue versus the matched maturity CDS spread.

 
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Early Jan 30 Headlines





  • GDP: Q4 annualized report out at 8:30 am: Consensus at -5.5%, Actual at -3.8%: someone forget to carry the 1?
 
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