This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Mark Spitznagel Warns: If Investors Thought August Was Scary, "They Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The man who made a billion dollars on Black Monday sums up his strategy perfectly in this excellent FOX Business clip with the money-honey, "I'm a hedge fund manager that actually hedges for his clients. This is something of an old fashioned idea in this day of just gambling on the next Fed bailout." Spitznagel, who is wholly unapologetic in his criticism of The Fed (and any central planner), unleashes eight minutes of awful truthiness on what is going on under the surface of the so-called 'market', concluding ominously, "if August was scary for people, they ain't seen nothin’ yet."

 

Grab a beer and relax...

 

Some key excerpts:

On Universa's tail-risk strategy..

"We tend to lose or draw—most of the time—these small battles or skirmished. But, ultimately, we win the wars."

On the Great Myth of centrally planned economies..

"Great myths die hard. And I think what we're witnessing today is the slow death of one of the great myths of human history: this idea that centrally planned command economies work, that they're even feasible, and that they can be successful.

 

It's one of these enigmatic mythologies of the last hundred years in particular that we've been grappling with, and here we are today yet again thinking about this. Let's remember that in the last hundred years a lot of blood has been shed over this mythology. And here we are today, how did we get here again?

On today's "all alpha is beta" hedge fund community...

There was this notion not long ago of the Bernanke put, the Greenspan put. It was sort of a dirty thing to admit that it was part of our investment strategy. But today, it's everyone’s investment strategy."

On "it's different this time"...

"I think that another generation will look back and say 'how could you have made that mistake all over again? How could you have failed to understand Hayek's notion of the fatal conceit, that central planners can't do better than the dispersed knowledge and signals of free market processes?'"

On the crazy world in which we live...

"There's something self-fulfilling about this mythology, only in the short run.

 

But in the long run we know that it is ultimately self-defeating. When bureaucrats mandate low interest rates it doesn't spawn long term productive investment. What it spawns is this short term gambling, punting on momentum-driven moves, on levered buybacks. This is the world we're in today."

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sat, 09/19/2015 - 01:43 | 6568327 bozoklown
bozoklown's picture

you make the world a brighter place.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 02:31 | 6568393 walküre
walküre's picture

no need to apologize

 

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 11:29 | 6569028 wolframm
wolframm's picture

You are the dumbest fuck there is. Spitznagel is not a Jewish name, you fucking retard.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:04 | 6567848 MSimon
MSimon's picture

All those who believe in agregate demand.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:48 | 6567963 Freddie
Freddie's picture

His father was a United Church of Christ minister.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:10 | 6568030 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

No Jews to hate!?! 

 

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:21 | 6568058 Mr. Schmilkies
Mr. Schmilkies's picture

ok good, then I believe whatever he says.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 22:50 | 6570547 Cornfedbloodstool
Cornfedbloodstool's picture

Filthy Jew.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 19:41 | 6567454 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

Burn baby burn, disco inferno
Burn baby burn, burn that mother down

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_sY2rjxq6M

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 19:44 | 6567469 gann1212
gann1212's picture

its going a lot lower . maybe reality will stick its head up here. what is missing imo is true value . why dont governments buy gold and silver each month as a portion of their budget. ha ha never happen but instead of weakening the currency like they believe it would actually strengthen it . cest la vie ready for the next leg down

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 19:52 | 6567488 D3vildog
D3vildog's picture

As people in the medical profesion are known to say "All bleeding stops eventually."

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:14 | 6567879 Bilderberg Member
Bilderberg Member's picture

I'm a muppet, I can take it

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 06:08 | 6568578 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Anyone with a hand up their ass can take anything.  Calling a personal foul on myself, ten yards and must Count each step.

One

Two

(You've awoken the "Count of Sesame Street"

fuck this.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 19:47 | 6567474 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

This guy sure doesn't give even a hint of what his real trading strategy is.  Can't blame him though, I wouldn't either.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:49 | 6567817 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

Atleast he was openly saying that the Fed is a failure and needing to let the free market run for true price discovery.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:28 | 6568073 greenskeeper carl
greenskeeper carl's picture

How much did the VIX move that day? I don't remember but it was a lot. But no, I don't blame him for not revealing it either. And ya it's always a little surprising when they have someone like him on there AFTER a bad market day, I would expect someone like him to get the peter schiff treatment- invite you on while the market is up/ gold is down and then treat you as persona non grata once you are inevitably proven right b

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 01:55 | 6568342 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

Its like the lie is getting too big for even the MSM to keep swallowing and inside under the leech, the human is showing through. Or I might just be dreaming, lol.

 

*edit spelling

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 19:52 | 6567487 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

What about October?

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 19:55 | 6567494 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture
Mark, cash out of the casino. Let the sheep burn into flames. Good job BTW.
Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:04 | 6567524 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

The easiest hedge is to play the longer term game and buy bitcoin - http://shitco.in/2015/09/17/bitcoins-role-during-the-upcoming-financial-...

This time is different, but only because the people have an alternative to turn to. 

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:50 | 6567821 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

Bitcoin the doorway to cashless nirp land. No thanks.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:05 | 6567850 FoundInTranslation
FoundInTranslation's picture

Are you retarded? Bitcoin is the ultimate form of cash. Explain exactly how a central banking regime enforces NIRP on holders of bitcoin. Oh yeah, that's right, they can't.

Seriously, try and understand what the fuck bitcoin actually is before coming in here with this "hurr durr, if it's digital the bankers / government will control it." If you actually read the whitepaper and understood how the system works you would know the above statement to be absurd.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:30 | 6567918 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

 

 

YOU

do not understand

how the system works.

Period.

 

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:32 | 6567924 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

ZH is kinda like the New York New York of propaganda lately....

If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KJQNMqVIug

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:14 | 6568174 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

....I want to be a part of it...ZH!...Z...H!

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:47 | 6567935 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

And if the Govt/bankers own the interwebs. Exactly how do you stop them from ending bitcoin freedom by using digital flow controls to position themselves in every single transaction. You will be taxed digitally whether you like it or not. Until I can hold a bitcoin in my hand it is a fiat just like the rest.

 

*edit addition* If a currency is digital, it depends in a central planning controllable forum. If they shut off your access to a Bitcoin exchange, how do you get them? Where do you spend them if the govt bans their use? If the US were to enact a program like china's great firewall, do you think you could just keep using bitcoin without thier express permission?

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:01 | 6568001 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

Ever heard of a mesh network? 

You can hold bitcoin in your hands in many forms, choose your poison: paper wallet, smart phone, casaicus coin, the list goes on.

Better yet, generate your own private key that you can memorize. 

Use BIP38 to encrypt your private key for added security - https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0038.mediawiki

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:13 | 6568038 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

You do know that skeptics will challenge that you must provide proof that the NSA does not have electronic countermeasures to thwart your proposition.

To which the cash standard to date remains ostensibly and realistically unchallenged. You must admit that fact.

Your retort is what exactly...? and I'm not talking about transitting fiat through the interwebs

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:10 | 6568164 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

Not sure I fully understand your question, could you rephrase? 

If I do understand it though, I think you'll be ok - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/goldman-joins-bitcoin-...

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:36 | 6568199 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Simple proposition.  Does the NSA (or any other of the FED's minions) have a better chance of knowing how many bitcoins I have or how much cash I have ?

And what is the probability they have, in both scenarios, to imposing taxation imposed by fiat (to accrue to a private central bank and their collectors) upon a private transactional situation that did not warrant the imposition of a tariff without representation ?

I'm thinking cash is a better option versus digital fiat in a digital fiat world when faced with unlawful taxation without representation scenarios...wait...history that sounds familiar

EDIT: and by the FED's minions, I will most definitely include The Squid at the top of the list...LOL just below the IRS

And you most definitely you don't understand

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:14 | 6568178 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

Any and every transaction of currency that requires a third party to mediate the currency flow is controllable by the central planners. Period. The only challenge to the control is a physical (in your hands physical) currency backed by bullion in a free market that they cannot control. Otherwise, eventually everytime, your paper or bits will be worth nothing. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:15 | 6568045 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

what itnterest rate are you geting on your bitcoins?

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:05 | 6568155 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

Dependng on the demand for shorting, you can earn up to 1%-5% per day lending on BitFinex. You can also regularly and steadily earn .1% per day on USD deposits that people will borrow to go long. Interest is paid to you every 24 hours. 

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:41 | 6568227 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

I can make how much working at home on the Internet?

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:30 | 6568081 greenskeeper carl
greenskeeper carl's picture

@undertow I agree 100% and have been saying that on here for well over a year. One of the Tyler's actually agreed with me today. All digital currency that keeps track of all transactions = central planners wet dream. All these people thinking it's somehow secure from the prying eyes of big brother are delusional.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:58 | 6567836 38BWD22
38BWD22's picture

 

 

Bitcoin still has a number of issues to resolve before it becomes BIG.  The two most relevant ones IMO:

-- it is hard to use, beyong the capability of non-digerati

-- It is not used in enough places & countries

If/when BTC becomes widely used (and available) in Peru, for example, then BTC will fly.  It's already catching in Argentina, but that country offers specific reasons why.

Once useful almost anywhere, THAT IS WHEN BTC's ability to be easily used, sans frontiéres, will be epic.  Epic!

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:20 | 6567893 r00t61
r00t61's picture

Those are just marketing problems.

If people can be convinced to buy pet rocks, or dance the Macarena, or wear mullets, then they can surely be conditioned and trained to use and enjoy *coin.

For me, *coin has a much larger underlying technical problem - the size of the blockchain, which, by definition, will only continue to grow as more transactions are committed to the ledger.

That, and the fact that anyone can create a fork of the original bitcoin, means that there are infinite *coin copycats available.  This makes *coin interesting as a medium of exchange, but on its own, useless as a store of value.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:40 | 6567948 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

Exactly,  "useless as a store of value". After NIRP, the blockchain will be all thats left of Bitcoin. As the FED takes over Bitcoins operating model to accelerate the cashless credits system and now can track and trace all transactions of currency forever. A bit to Orwellian for me thanks.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:48 | 6567958 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Nice Coda.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:07 | 6568022 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Scalability

Scalability will not be an issue moving forward. 

In regards to altcoins, the free market will decide. It already has for many of them. 

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:35 | 6568093 greenskeeper carl
greenskeeper carl's picture

Surely you did not mean to insult those who wear mullets ? Thems fightin' words....

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 00:24 | 6570691 Really20
Really20's picture

Bitcoin is limited in supply just like gold and its creation has nothing to do with the creation of actual goods and services. It will have the same problem as gold and silver; a layer of "bitcoin certificates payable on demand" will pop up, just like the goldsmiths created gold and silver certificates payable on demand (which eventually morphed into our corrupt, lent-into-existence money). As is the case now, most of this new private money creation on top of Bitcoin will be used for the maintenance and acquisition of existing Bitcoin assets, for the simple reason that most "developed" economies have reached the inflection point at which the most profitable configuration for the banksters involves throwing money at existing assets and inflating bubbles.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:06 | 6567532 Tinky
Tinky's picture

This guy won seven gold medals in the Olympics and made a billion dollars in one day? Why isn't he running for President?

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:31 | 6567607 Scotch-n-Soda
Scotch-n-Soda's picture

LOL

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:33 | 6567613 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Because he's to smart to want the job, and to rich to be bribed?

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:45 | 6567803 Majestic12
Majestic12's picture

Let's hope.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:52 | 6567826 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

By saying he actually HEDGES for his clients, I might be fooled to think he has ethics. I know right how unbelievable.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:22 | 6567747 Zero-Hegemon
Zero-Hegemon's picture

He probably inhaled

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:09 | 6567863 bamawatson
bamawatson's picture

hey tinky --- wasn't that guy a dentist also?

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:53 | 6567980 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Mark Spitznagel is NOT Mark Spitz.

 

(I guess...er...hoping that 26 people thought that you are writing satire. Or they are dumb mutherfukkers So I fail to see any satirical humor in this.)

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 05:51 | 6568566 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Tall Tom –

You are the dumb motherfucker in this case, as you didn't recognize the obvious joke.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 09:55 | 6568764 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Tom is so serious that had he laughed, he would invite himself over to kick his own ass...

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:02 | 6568149 anyways
anyways's picture

do you mean Mark Spitz, the Swimmer? ????

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 06:26 | 6568587 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Very good! Now work on fixing your faulty JDU*.

*Joke Detector Unit

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:12 | 6567552 q99x2
q99x2's picture

A billion sounds like a lot but what was the percentage?

I'm up over 8% my first two days back in the markets after 3 1/2 years of being out.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:17 | 6567568 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

8% on how much capital?  roughly.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:33 | 6567615 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

70 bucks.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:49 | 6567656 Dsyno
Dsyno's picture

And he's gotta lot of catching up to do. 3 1/2 years out? Ouch. Missed the greatest fraudulent bull market in history.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:46 | 6567805 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Up over 35% after cashing in those $5 lottery tickets! Yahooooo!

 

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:59 | 6567695 Dazman
Dazman's picture

Congratulations. Just take it from me and quit while you're ahead. The casino is rigged and I promise you'll give every penny and more back. I've lost about $30k in the last 2 years.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:48 | 6567810 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Ouch. I lost about 10k and my wife nearly cut my balls off. Made me swear I would never invest again.

Damn it.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:33 | 6567930 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

 

 

Yeah,

investing 10K in hookers and blow

will piss off

most wives these days.

 

 

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:54 | 6567982 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Smart wife.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:02 | 6568004 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

That is what is behind the successful man.

Sun, 09/20/2015 - 01:01 | 6570731 Toonces McGraw
Toonces McGraw's picture

Well I guess I'm fucked then.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:49 | 6567818 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

well ive been pretty much all in PMs for 2 years, and i havent expected them to rise up until now. But if the comex get somehow repleted and the shemitah collapse doesnt play out  - im reconsidering my strategy if gold doesnt start to catch a bid within the next two months

 

 

 

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:35 | 6567936 ChartreuseDog
ChartreuseDog's picture

Don't watch Comex - that's the sideshow. LBMA is the main event.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:16 | 6567560 davidalan1
davidalan1's picture

19 trillion..TRILLION!! in debt and all along our voted in reps. raised the debt ceiling...over and over and over. Why? Its called having no accountability and a country club lifestyle. We are Amerika, who needs austerity as the potus flies around to fucking country clubs...etc.. what a fucking joke our politicians are..Lets just spend more money. who cares...we can print and kick the can. The ever devolving sense of responsibility. Been there in my own life once.. Piled up so much debt just said FUCK IT...thats pretty much where we are with the FED, The Politicians..FUCK IT party on Wayne...

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:49 | 6567816 Majestic12
Majestic12's picture

To emphasize davidalan1's point:

1 Million =  One Thousand piles of One Thousand.

1 Billion  = One Thousand piles of 1 Million.

1 Trillion = One Thousand Piles of 1 Billion.

 

...times 19.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 02:12 | 6568376 delacroix
delacroix's picture

1 trillion seconds= 32,000 years.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 05:46 | 6568560 Harry Balzak
Harry Balzak's picture

Here's a compelling visualization of the USSA debt as of 2013 (short video):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jKpVlDSIz9o

World debt (graphic):

http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/world_debt/world_debt.html

Derivatives (similar in actual size to USSA unfunded liabilities, which they haven't a graphic for):

http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/derivatives/bank_exposure.html

 

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 10:56 | 6568938 plane jain
plane jain's picture

That last one is worth the click. Yeah, fuck it.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:25 | 6567906 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

If we shunned them and their businesses; they would go away.  The solution is simple, but people are not willing to engage and do what needs to be done.  Put down the SMART phones, get rid of the cable and all other forms of electronic entertainment.  Buy what you need and support those that are not engaged in the "machine".  Won't happen and they know it; we are the problem; they just take advantage of it.

 

------------

For example if we want rid of Goldman Sachs; withdraw all your money and investments and make sure collectively any employer who uses them stops.  Refuse to associate with anyone associated with that bank.  See how fast they disappear.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:29 | 6568076 Dark Daze
Dark Daze's picture

Your absolutely right and that was just what I was thinking. Stop all the buying and trransacting you can in their 'system'. Use alternative payments systems whatever your choice. Shut them down so much that they scream uncle and crash if they must.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 02:00 | 6568360 Really20
Really20's picture

True. Protesting in the streets will not work; in fact, it's just a convenient method for the ruling classes to allow popular discontent to be let off without any direct threat. The only real method of protest is the withdrawal of our labor and participation, which are the only two things that underpin this economic system. Mobilize everyone throughout the country to work half-days only; the other half goes to interest, rent, and profit for the 0.01%.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:20 | 6567582 blindman
blindman's picture

lame cock suckers and voyeurism,
that is all that is left for public
consumption and their "inevstment
potency" according to the
powers of media that be..
,.
the earth itself is crying from
all the decrepit abuse, never mind
the dead or dying, poisoned and frustrated
children, man.
the drying up and burning continue.
let it melt, man, then let it burn.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:13 | 6567730 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Is that a picture of planet earth from outer space?

It looks strangely similar to my minds vision of what our swirling about the drain would look like from that perspective.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:57 | 6567834 o r c k
o r c k's picture

Half a trillion solar systems. How many use gold or silver for money ? Probably all.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:56 | 6567832 Majestic12
Majestic12's picture

"let it melt, man, then let it burn."

Great...why the fuck should all of the "people" burn and be destroyed, while the small handfull of these assholes burrow away in bunkers and DUMBs????

Where are the "balls" of  the "citizens"..???

Don't bother with a "generational" bullshit response...

We're talking a few thousand assholes running us all into oblivion....there is no fucking excuse for "NOT" uniting....

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:02 | 6567842 o r c k
o r c k's picture

And the old American tradition of peaceful protest to spread non-propagandist facts.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:26 | 6567909 blindman
blindman's picture

pray tell, some dude "made a billion dollars" on
a monday, a dark one. i read it right here and i really do not
know what it means. you know, there was never a "duke of earl"
other than the singer himself. anyway, you are right.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:26 | 6567910 MSimon
MSimon's picture

It only looks like a few thousand to you. It is 20 million or 50 million. It is why in the end except for a few at the very top you have to grant amnesty. Otherwise you become the mass murderers they are. And your soul will be as corroded as theirs.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:57 | 6567991 scaleindependent
scaleindependent's picture

Blindman,

Is that a quote and if so where is it  from?

 

It reminds me of:   "that the creation itself also will be set free from its slavery to corruption ... 22For we know that the whole creation groans and suffers the pains ..."

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 09:22 | 6568746 blindman
blindman's picture

my tears have tears to drown
the embers of our frowns,
i just make this stuff up as
other people's words move me.
it is probably plagiarism of the akashic
record on a preconscious level? i don't
really know but my hope is that people
will read some of it and think, comment
and act in more interesting and constructive
ways. i probably should have learned to write
before i took up commenting on the internet.
thanks for the link and quote scaleindependent.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:57 | 6567992 scaleindependent
scaleindependent's picture

duplicate

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 09:24 | 6568754 blindman
blindman's picture

Jeremiah 12:11
It will be made a wasteland, parched and desolate before me; the whole land will be laid waste because there is no one who cares.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:35 | 6567619 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Great interview, smart guy!

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:14 | 6567877 ultimate warrior
ultimate warrior's picture

Reminds me of Jim Grant. I like him.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:39 | 6567634 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Too much Truth-i-ness. I see a nail gun in his future.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:39 | 6567947 Ajax_USB_Port_R...
Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

He said CASH was a the best investment right now. Uh! Oh! 3 1/2" stainless decking nails.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:45 | 6567647 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Jesse Livermore

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:04 | 6567847 o r c k
o r c k's picture

and Jessica Dyerless.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:50 | 6567662 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Curious how we're starting to see a heavier dose of QE criticism by the MSM lately. It's almost as if they're up to something.....

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:01 | 6568145 The Old Man
The Old Man's picture

The massage is over. Now that you're relaxed, it's time to cut your throat! Long Pig anyone?

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:50 | 6567665 mendigo
mendigo's picture

There is no central planning.

There is only liquidity.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:44 | 6567956 Salah
Salah's picture

This guy is credible.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:53 | 6567675 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I'm not sure how scary it is, but it is exciting!

Popcorn sales should be through the roof!

I have no money in the markets, so I'm just waiting to see how these gambling mother fuckers can burn down everything I have worked and saved for, for the last fifty years. I'm sure it will be interesting.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 20:55 | 6567677 Not if_ But When
Not if_ But When's picture

Viewing this interview should be mandatory homework for the Fed chairman and all governors.  (so they know this gentleman and a growing amount of others see right through them).

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:20 | 6567744 Temerity Trader
Temerity Trader's picture

<”...19 trillion..TRILLION!! in debt and all along our voted in reps. raised the debt ceiling...over and over and over. Why? Its called having no accountability and a country club lifestyle…”>

Partially correct, the American people love it! They have been taught to believe debt is good, buy on credit, help keep the economy going! Ask the average American about the $19 Trillion, they don’t have a f***ing clue what you are talking about and don’t care. They want the freebies and enough ‘Trickle-down’ to buy more toys. They want their entitlements and they know ‘austerity’ means it goes away. Just try weaning the entitlement society off the government handouts…every city will burn. The debt has to increase forever, unless Pres Trump just says “F*** You, we are balancing the budget and every government worker who cannot show they are productive, is gone!” Then who will give out the handouts? Social Security checks? Medicare payments? Medicaid? EBT cards? Veterans benefits?. There would be huge marches on D.C. Even Joe, the f***ing 300lb couch potato plumber, would march if you took away his HDTV, chips and beer.

There is no way back…and no way forward. Mr. Market will soon cleanse the excesses and much pain is coming. When the Fed-induced stocks and housing bubbles deflate, it will get real ugly, real fast.

The absolute worst thing for the lemmings is a nervous Fed, and we now have a very nervous Fed. They went from, ”All is wonderful, we are so smart we engineered a successful recovery…time to raise rates”, to “No hike for now”,  to “We may need more QE soon!” 

LMFAO.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:32 | 6567927 Shpedly
Shpedly's picture

By "Plumber" I'm assuming you mean a working plumber? I hear and understand your rage but there are no 300 pound working plumbers in this country. I have plumber friends that do extremely well. I asked one of them a few years ago if he had been hit by the last recession. He laughed and said "No Ed, you know why? Because everybody needs a working shitter."

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:57 | 6568109 The Old Man
The Old Man's picture

Good plumbers do. Shame is my folks told me I needed to go to college. Me. With a 2.25 out of a Catholic Prep high school. Went to College, paid my own way. Flunked out after three miserable years while I held a full time retail job. Jobbed it here and there. Barely made it. Got into the masonry trades. Started making a living years later. Got into the Historical Masonry Restoration aspect. Made a better living. Started my own business. Did even better. 

Too many people are obsessed with this idea of college. If little old me had to do it all over again, and I really wanted to not OBEY my 2nd generation European parents, I'd have gone to the nearest trade school or hooked up with the Electricians, Carpenters, Plumbers or maybe the Bricklayers. One never knows what the end will be. One does have tremendous hindsight as the years go on.

And this is the aspect of this Spitznagel. Hindsight. What do you really want? You want a draw, you want even, or do you want a loss? Who do you follow? Where is your money going? Who has the answers? Big questions, I know, coming from the trade of Historical Restoration Specialist. But I'm sure you know what you learn from History? HINDSIGHT! At least I hope you do.

Anyone listening out there?

The Old Man

 

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 05:11 | 6568540 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Yes, there's always someone listening, rest assured ...

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:23 | 6567752 Zero-Hegemon
Zero-Hegemon's picture

Stop complaining, we're all rich now

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:41 | 6567790 enloe creek
enloe creek's picture

So long bonds do well til when??

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 21:41 | 6567791 Fahque Imuhnutjahb
Fahque Imuhnutjahb's picture

"I think that another generation will look back and say 'how could you have made that mistake all over again? How could you have failed to understand Hayek's notion of the fatal conceit, that central planners can't do better than the dispersed knowledge and signals of free market processes?"

"Great myths die hard. And I think what we're witnessing today is the slow death of one of the great myths of human history: this idea that centrally planned command economies work, that they're even feasible, and that they can be successful."

 

These statements assume that TPTB are inept, or misguided.  What if they are very shrewd, and accomplishing exactly what

they want.  Is inequality a big accident?  Has wealth concentrated down through the centuries from mere chance?

I figure TPTB say "fuck the invisible hand", because that isn't a sure thing.  Left to the whims of a capricious market, where

would they turn to socialize loses, while guaranteeing the privatization of gains?  This fucker knows this as well; either that or

he's a dumbass.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:43 | 6568231 AntiFabian
AntiFabian's picture

I think you just stumbled into the problem, tyrannts hate free markets, they hate free anything ohter than a free ride on the back of the lower classes they exploit with the power of centralized gov't.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 01:56 | 6568352 Really20
Really20's picture

Tyrants act not just through officially declared "states", but the undeclared states-within-states of large banks and corporations. Contrary to the right-libertarian belief, there is a critical mass at which it is more profitable for a corporation (in the short run) to maintain its existing strong market position and parlay this economic power into political connections, as opposed to innovating. This effect is strongest in companies that are owned by private shareholders, who are by definition completely divorced from the work of said company.

There is no such thing as the invisible hand, there are many hands, large and small, that affect economic outcome. The largest is of course from the government, but large corporations also have the ability to affect economic outcomes in the broader economy.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 03:51 | 6568480 Advoc8tr
Advoc8tr's picture

If we had a genuine Libertarian framework there would be no all-powerful government for them to run to and bribe for protection and assistance.  I agree their size would eventually limit their relative innovation prowess and decrease their efficiency. This would prevent the monopoly from forming in the first place or at least make it much more fragile.  It has never been tried properly and is the only "ideology" that relies on free choice for everyone, centralized force against no-one.

 

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 18:39 | 6570055 Really20
Really20's picture

My point was that after a certian critical mass corporations gain economic, then political power, and divert most of their energies to maintaining or gaining control over existing assets rather than innovating organically. In the absence of an officially declared state organization they will gain political power for themelves unofficially. This is how the Pinkerton Detective Agency, among other private organizations, was created.

A system in which workers control the operations of corporations, while an investor board negotiates with the worker-chosen management board to determine the terms of investment, would be ideal. Although corporations may grow large there would be far less concentration of power in small groups of large investors who tend to spearhead mergers, acquisitions, and other attempts to merely control existing assets. In a worker-operated enterprise such mergers and acquisitions which only expand market position to the benefit of a few investors would be most likely rejected.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:10 | 6567868 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture
Mark Spitznagel:

Remember the name, I think many people will be looking back and thinking how could we have not listened to this guy, one of the few who is able to look through the crap and see the truth. One very very sharp dude.

 

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:30 | 6567919 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

He is just scared because that is when he really has to work and prove himself like many on Wall Street or in Private Banking.

- Got to coast since 2001, right Banker-Boy, Spitzenagle??

- Who gets the blame when Funds lose money?
- Can you blame the people Laid off when the funds lose Money?
- Or do you get to say, you weren't trained or experience enough to deal with the Federal Reserve Rate Hikes??

- Everyone Points Fingers, the Losers lose their job and take the blame, but wow nice compensation and bonuses until you get toss on your butts, TBTJ

- Pussy Generation of Bankers, Traders, Schemers, Financial Raters, State, Local, Federal Financial Officers,... University Financial Officers, ... US Congress... State Representatives... Foundation Managers... And Most of ALL BAR ASSOCIATION Members & Leaders... Fuck the US Lawyers!!!

Fuck Big City Lawyers!!!

Fuck you VICHY DC.

Fuck You VICHY Wall Street.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:28 | 6568202 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

So sorry, me Lords, you never learned humility.

The Ego is very strong in ZH.

Fuck you Lawyers and clingers on.

ZH has it's share of Ego Wants and Ego Needs. It is disgusting.

_pussy Whiners for FED hand-outs and Federal; Fiscal Stimulus.

You make me sick. Corporate Bail-Outs make me violent. Wall Street is a Virus/Sickness/Mental Illness/Psy-Op, Fuck You ALL!!!

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:32 | 6568209 AntiFabian
AntiFabian's picture

Stay classy San Diego!

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 01:07 | 6568285 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

You know, in german, that means 'whale's vagina'.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 01:44 | 6568329 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Sorry maybe just trolling, but gave you guys a point.

I drank 700 ml of whiskey. Seems I can still type but there is a question of how must i know about QT Theory, Theory about Velocity in the Economy (which I still say should be larger and more of a target for the FED, as the US Velocity is the lowest its ever been on record for like 30-40 years)

So Question: Where should US Velocity be, Where should the US Federal Reserve owned by Private Stockholders Target the US Velocity of Money Stock/Money Levels increased in the US Economy?

I'm just asking.

How should we manage Stewardship of the US World Reserve Currency in a time of Crisis and in normal times?

It should be handled with the top most care.

It should be handled the same in crisis as in non-crisis times... this is responsibility... this is good management... this is control and responsibility.

WTF.

Oct 2005 was the Top of the US Real Estate Market.

So what were the big Bankers doing, Planning, and scheming in 2006, 2007, 2008, prior to the 2008 Public Admission of a Banking Crisis(Really it was a global Banking Crisis, but they didn't admit that, they didn't apologize, they didn't mention that they nearly started a world war)

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 02:36 | 6568397 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

I'll try this line by line.

Congratulations, I hope it was good whiskey.

US Velocity, who knows. Its been manipulate for so long that its hard to really say. Without true pricing in the markets and economy, we don't even know what size money stock we really need. And as for the FED, I still don't know why these guys are still doing the US Treasury Dept's job for. The Peoples bank should be owned by the People. It is the people's money after all.

Glad you asked, never stop.

How should we manage  the global reserve currency, well obiviously not like this. Maybe try a physically backed currency again, backed by a global free nonpaper delivery only gold and silver exchange. Debt free currency.

The next three are statements and , yes.

2005 man the bubble was still climbing glasses were rose colored.

2006-2008, it takes a second for the greed beer hookers and blow glasses to fall off. That's my guess.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 19:52 | 6570179 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Thanks.

I never saw the connection to true pricing in the markets. So maybe I can keep on the lookout now.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:14 | 6568041 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

What happened to Kyle Bass? I liked that guy and he had some amazingly prescient videos. He used to get quoted on here regularly.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 01:20 | 6568299 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Sharing isn't profitable?

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 05:55 | 6568569 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Two good, short, recent videos of Bass right here:

http://www.ftense.com/2015/09/kyle-bass-on-china-emerging-markets.html

Mon, 09/21/2015 - 00:29 | 6573515 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Excellent! To put it bluntly, I love watching and listening to people who really know shit. 

I think it was Hume who stated (paraphrased), "People do not know all truth but they have the ability to recognize it when presented with it." I may have the wrong empiricist.  

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:33 | 6567929 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

 

“Cash, it’s the toughest position to take, which  probably means it’s the best one.”

 

This is the honest truth of investing today. Sad but true, and wise. So nice to hear someone in the know admit it. Essentially it means that thanks to the Fed’s ZIRP, the best an investor can do in the long run is lose as little as possible after inflation and taxes.

 

And against this backdrop, which they created, the central planners are perplexed why people don’t save for retirement. It’s a mad, mad, mad, mad, world.   

   

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 01:08 | 6568286 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

Its the toughest position for a person like him because it bears no interest. That is also the source of the FED's hate of it.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 22:42 | 6567952 Wilcox1
Wilcox1's picture

The dude made money because he understands what's going on. Notice how he didn't gloat though. 

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:38 | 6568206 AntiFabian
AntiFabian's picture

Great point but lost on these dolts who all they can come up with is BTFD.  Sold most of my TVIX I picked up a three days ago before the close today and bought some SVXY because I know some hopium and BTFD will levitate us some next week so I wil sell SVXY after two or three days to the upside which I think we will see.  Then it is time to buy some more TVIX.  However I still kept 20% of my TVIX just in case we see a shocker and the VIX gets set free to the upside.  This market will stair step down with a couple of shockers like the black Monday that made Mark a billion.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:02 | 6568003 alfbell
alfbell's picture

 

 

The guy has a head on his shoulders. He doesn't like the circumstances but he's still making money for his clients despite the insanity. Lay off of him you morons. ("He's a jew!" "He's a NAZI!" What a bunch of dickwads there are on this site.) As if any of you retards are making that kind of wealth for your clients.

We need more of this type of speak happening in the MSM.

 

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:35 | 6568217 AntiFabian
AntiFabian's picture

So true sometimes I think most of these trolls on ZH sit naked in front of their MacBooks stroking it while wearing one of those V for Vendetta masks.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 01:11 | 6568288 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

And having not one clue to what that book was really about.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 20:05 | 6570204 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

not that there's anything wrong with that, hold up, don't you hate it when the cheetos orange stains you?

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:06 | 6568018 10mm
10mm's picture

No just a American Kraut. Marks his name.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:16 | 6568046 Pumpkin
Pumpkin's picture

If I made a billion dollars doing anything, I'd have a better pair of glasses.

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:41 | 6568060 Alexandre Stavisky
Alexandre Stavisky's picture

Hard to tell the difference between the lookety-box humour sketches and Defcon 1 readiness-serious financial reporting.  Its all...well it rhymes with DullSpritz.

 

https://search.yahoo.com/search?p=mark+spitz+and+carol+burnett&ei=UTF-8&...

 

Kyle Bass, Grant, Harry Dent (That's a tough name), Turd Ferguson, Goldenses Jakasse, that scotch asian dude, midget yellen.  This is just better than any Barnum & Baileys.  Opera Buffo, ha-ha!

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:16 | 6568047 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

You know, this guy makes a lot of sense. If he got one of those machines that makes zany noises while you maniacally push buttons people might actually pay attention

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:13 | 6568176 homeskillet
homeskillet's picture

Like the wizard in oz? Wasn't that an analogy for the industrialists scrapping the silver standard?

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 01:14 | 6568292 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

It was about the dropping of the gold and silver standard. Yellow brick road and in the book the slippers are silver not ruby like the movie.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 05:12 | 6568541 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Like the wizard said: "We're done here!"  ;)

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 09:18 | 6568740 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

Done saved $200 at that titty bar, get for 100 next month

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:17 | 6568050 MaxThrust
MaxThrust's picture

Hedgemamon

 

Fri, 09/18/2015 - 23:40 | 6568101 dust to dust
dust to dust's picture

 Do I have to wait for Holloween to be SCARED? I will answer my own question. No way. Preparedness smart people.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:12 | 6568170 homeskillet
homeskillet's picture

I wonder when the collapse is actually going to happen...can someone please give me an actual date?

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:22 | 6568186 AntiFabian
AntiFabian's picture

It's happening before your eyes, but like the last bear in '08 the first drops were blown off, so were the second sell offs, then by November the president was talking about bailouts.  Not sure how it will all play out this time but the Feds failure to move this time finally woke up even the most hard head perma bull that we are @#$#&%!

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:42 | 6568228 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

i'll give you a date,  your mama

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 11:01 | 6568601 weburke
weburke's picture

.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 11:01 | 6568602 weburke
weburke's picture

.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:25 | 6568190 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

its alreeady scary, the first openly gay civilian appointed as secretary of the army,  instead of attacking we can just throw a fabulous dinner party for our enemies

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 03:08 | 6568438 sTls7
sTls7's picture

Well, it appears as though bombing and wars haven't solved a dam thing for centuries, perhaps the 'dinner party'  would work!!!  A hole!

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 20:07 | 6570208 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

most of those ragheads wear dresses anyway, so we could too.  and you can eat the cracker after the circle  of love.

Sat, 09/19/2015 - 00:25 | 6568191 Moccasin
Moccasin's picture

He is smart. The interview was too short.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!