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"All Kinds Of Mayhem Will Let Loose" As Strongest El Nino In Decades Looms
September was officially the warmest ever recorded around the globe (the 7th time this year a month has set a record) as El nino is back in a big way. As Bloomberg reports, its effects are just beginning in much of the world -- for the most part, it hasn’t really reached North America -- and yet it’s already shaping up potentially as one of the three strongest El Nino patterns since record-keeping began in 1950. Expect "major disruptions, widespread droughts and floods," warned a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, adding that without preparation, "all kinds of mayhem will let loose."
September was the warmest ever recorded around the globe, the seventh time this year a month has set a record for average global temperature
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said last month’s global temperature was 60.62 degrees, beating a record set just last year.
In all, seven months this year have set monthly records for global heat, including July, which was the hottest month ever recorded. Only January and April did not set records for global warmth.
It also has been the warmest first nine months of any year ever recorded, dating back to 1880.
NOAA climate scientist Jessica Blunden said it would take an extended cold stretch the rest of the year for 2015 not to pass 2014 as the hottest on record.
With a strong El Niño cycle in place over the Pacific, that appears highly unlikely, as Bloomberg details, the strongest El Nino in decades is going to mess with everything...
It has choked Singapore with smoke, triggered Pacific typhoons and left Vietnamese coffee growers staring nervously at dwindling reservoirs. In Africa, cocoa farmers are blaming it for bad harvests, and in the Americas, it has Argentines bracing for lower milk production and Californians believing that rain is finally, mercifully on the way.
Its effects are just beginning in much of the world -- for the most part, it hasn’t really reached North America -- and yet it’s already shaping up potentially as one of the three strongest El Nino patterns since record-keeping began in 1950. It will dominate weather’s many twists and turns through the end of this year and well into next. And it’s causing gyrations in everything from the price of Colombian coffee to the fate of cold-water fish.
Expect “major disruptions, widespread droughts and floods,” Kevin Trenberth, distinguished senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. In principle, with advance warning, El Nino can be managed and prepared for, “but without that knowledge, all kinds of mayhem will let loose.”
In the simplest terms, an El Nino pattern is a warming of the equatorial Pacific caused by a weakening of the trade winds that normally push sun-warmed waters to the west. This triggers a reaction from the atmosphere above.
Its name traces back hundreds of years to the coast of Peru, where fishermen noticed the Pacific Ocean sometimes warmed in late December, around Christmas, and coincided with changes in fish populations. They named it El Nino after the infant Jesus Christ. Today meteorologists call it the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
The last time there was an El Nino of similar magnitude to the current one, the record-setting event of 1997-1998, floods, fires, droughts and other calamities killed at least 30,000 people and caused $100 billion in damage, Trenberth estimates. Another powerful El Nino, in 1918-19, sank India into a brutal drought and probably contributed to the global flu pandemic, according to a study by the Climate Program Office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
* * *
While the effect on the U.S. may not reach a crescendo until February, much of the rest of the world is already feeling the impact, Trenberth said.
“It probably sits at No. 2 in terms of how strong this event is, but we won’t be able to rank it until it peaks out and ends,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.
For Australia, El Nino can often mean drought.
“In broadest terms, though, we have had 26 past El Nino events since 1900, of which 17 resulted in widespread drought, so we in Australia have to manage for drought in any El Nino event,” Watkins said.
But there is some good news for California...
As the atmosphere changes, storm tracks in the U.S., for instance, are pushed down from the north, so the region from California to Florida could get more rain. This is reflected in the latest three-month outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, which sees high odds that heavy rain will sweep from California into the mid-Atlantic states through January. Texas and Florida have the greatest chance for downpours.
While this isn’t likely to end California’s four-year drought, it would improve conditions. Eliminating the dryness completely will be difficult because the state is so far behind on its normal rainfall.
However...
“If the wettest year were to occur, we still wouldn’t erase the deficit we have seen in the last four years,” said Alan Haynes, service coordination hydrologist at the California Nevada River Forecast Center in Sacramento.
“The general thing about these things is, if you are prepared, it doesn’t have to be a negative,” Trenberth said. Here's hoping!!
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Came for the confirmation bias, was not the disappoint.
Interesting to see how the heat in greenland has caused the ocean south of it to be abnormally cold. That's either the climate change conspiracy.. or the result of melting ice. Which do you think, idiots? Europe is in for another deep freeze.
ON the other hand, it's colder than normal in northern florida so all this climate change stuff must be malarky.
98% of the scientific community agrees on the climate change issue. The rest of you can keep smoking rock and denying it like the right wing would like you to.
"98% of the scientific community agrees on the climate change issue."
98% of the government scientific community agrees on the climate change issue and that a tax will correct it.
There,,, fixed it.
What has a greater effect on the earths climate, solar activity or man made carbon emmisions? Solar activity is at it's highest ( causing warming) right before it goes into a more dormant phase( causing cooling)This shit goes back and forth every couple hundred years and there is nothing we can do about it. Global warming zealots are just acting out mankinds God complex, where they believe they are in control
Yes it's true: the Sun has a greater effect on our climate than anything else. Just imagine how cold it would be without it.
Again, it's not the fact that the climate is changing, it's that it's changing for higher and faster than it ever has before.
It doesn't take much carbon dioxide to cause a greenhouse effect, just like it only takes 0.08% (that's 8 one-hundredths of one percent) to make you legally intoxicated.
I have been intoxicated more than once ( trust me on this) and after a certain amount of time my body absorbed it and filtered it and I returned to normal Why can't the earth do the same? A coulpe hundred years in the earth is like nothing and your blood achohol level peaks before it starts to decrease
Another more recent analysis of the literature puts the figure higher than 98%.
It's going to be interesting to see how that reality spills over into the streets and common thinking. Not via the media, being influence by corporations with a vested interest in BAU. Maybe via some kind of terrifying climate event. Hard to say. Will be really interesting though when it happens!
The actual figure is far, far less than 98% but fear among dissenting scientists of being publicly ridiculed or blackballed by strong-arming politicians and corrupt "scientists" who stand to make substantial financial gains from the "global climate" scam prevents them from speaking out.
As a working man, I can do without your advocating moar ways for our government to impoverish me. Fucking bone head liberals.
Weather patterns change. Tired of hearing dumbasses talk like it's supposed to stay the same.
You can bet the carbon tax homos are waiting to tax in with all their fucking bs.
Yes they do. We're in a crisis because they've never warmed this fast or this dramatically Do some reading.
"never" is a very, very long time.
Well, in North-Western Europe september was the coldest in 15 years.
Yes, because the ice in Greenland is melting at an unprecedented rate, disrupting the ocean gulf stream that's been keeping Europe warm until now. That's why.
Where do you people come from?
Other people...
Dey vas made in der voods by elfs.
Greenland melting is going to murder those people.
And God help them if the North Atlanic Gyre ever shuts down completely.
Gee, I wonder why they call it "Green"land instead of Whiteland.
You would need to ask the Norse about that.
My understanding is that they were trying to lure settlers there instead of having them go to "Iceland" which didn't have any ice but was green and fertile.
So just like some kind of Florida real estate fraud from the 1930s.
People have sucked for a long time.
Yes, because the ocean conveyor belt system im place there is getting ready to shut down. Europe is about to get a 1, 2 combo punch of extreme cold while Gazprom shuts the gas off.
I don't see how the gyre is going to hold up. I think those guys are sitting right in the cross-hairs of a lot of hurt.
In a generation the flow of refugees might easily be south right back into Africa.
You gotta wonder, how that's going to work out.
Its not El Nino, stupid; its Niburu...
That's not a model of Subaru???
It's the 2 wheel drive model of the Outback....without the sunroof.
Well, at least the Fed will get it's inflation after the first bad crop year in half a decade.
When, in the history of the world, have weather and climate patterns NOT changed?
While I can't say much about weather, the global climate hasn't changed for about 20,000 years.
Well it's changing now! Get ready to rumble!
Oh wow, you must be pretty old to remember that.
It's science! I don't have to remember it, because I can read!
Is that 20,000 year old book you're reading? Science = knowledge about or study of the natural world based on facts learned through experiments and observation.
Good. You have your belief system, I have mine. Science is the religion of the 21st century, no more, no less. To flash it around like some kind of badge or shield impresses no one but yourself. Congratulations on learning how to read though. I'm proud of you.
I have a science system!
And you can have a science system too!
Or you can get an outfit and be a cowboy too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Wp513wdCHU
Watch the vid and, in your mind, substitue the word "scientist" for the word "cowboy" and you've got it nailed.
What a putz!!!
No!
I am a scientist!
I would welcome you to my world, but I don't think you'll find the way there without a lot of help, which I will not be providing any of.
But keep trying! And Good Luck!
You have been indoctrinated into a belief system and, in the process, have forgotten how to think for yourself. Congratulations, you're a good boy, you get a cookie.
Very good. You have your defensive perimeter up and wired.
It's fine. Whatever gives you comfort. I mean that.
But the universe does not care. The illusion is that all our caring somehow offsets the terrible realization that the universe does not care.
I care. I little. So I am here. But I as the universe have other rats to kill and will not tarry here to see how you manage.
But I hope you do.
Manage.
Me? I have no "defensive perimeter", I'm perfectly happy to admit that I/we know nothing and can know nothing. I'm very comfortable with the words, "I don't know". I have no need to believe or to try to convince others to believe that there is a God or there is no God or how old the earth is or how many stars are in the night sky. I don't know and I don't care. I have no belief system, I have no witches to burn at the stake and no idols to worship, either alive or dead. I am like the universe, I don't care.
Your actions speak louder than your words. If you cared so little you would not even be here discussing this. You're lieing to yourself. You obviously do have "witches to burn at the stake."
I take your point but no, I have no need or desire to convince anyone of anything. That said, I should also say that I do sometimes enjoy poking a stick into the monkey cage or shining a light on the ignorance and arrogance of mankind, of which there is no shortage, - my own included of course.
I just crawled out of hiding from La Nina and now you tell me her fucking brother is coming. Oh well back to the storm shelter
The satellite record is still showing no warming for 18 years and 9 months. Funny how some of the reddest hottest temperatures are out in the middle of the Pacific wonder how many thermometers are out there??
My last name is Banks we have an island named after us in the Canadian Archipeligo. In 2009 due to global warming and with the aid of a heavy ice breaker a research ship with a reinforced hull was able to reach the site of the shipwreck of HMS Investigator. They broke a hole in the ice and found the remains of the Investigator with side bending sonar. The HMS Investigator got caught in ice after the crew landed on the island to look for the remains of another vessel. The entire crew eventually came ashore and wintered 2 years on the island, before they were rescued in 1853.
I have one question how did the wooden ships reach the island without the aid of a heavy ice breaker in 1850 and 1853????
Oh and there is more ice in the Arctic now than in 2009!!!
No there isn't more ice in the arctic now. The satellite record is indeed showing warming.
The heating is being measured with satellites. You can now commence denying orbital mechanics.
The real shocking thing from all of this is how can anyone think that warmer climate isn't better climate.
Rapid carbon sequestration DESTROYED the dinosaurs' tropical paradise. I'm here to undo the damage.
Well there you have it folks. If the satellites record say so, then it must be true.
I have wathched ENSO's for the last 20 years. But the BLOB by Alaska concerns me. I have never seen anything like it.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/...
Click on PDF.
Wait! It might be getting warmer during an interglacial warming period? WTF!!!
So, climate change is all the fault of the li'l baby Jesus? The Libs will have a field day with that.
You mean the baby jesus they made up in their imagination at the council of nicea in 325?
I strongly recommend two books by this author, also available at Amazon. http://iceagenow.info/ The books are well written, well documented and easy to read.
The gist is that ice ages correspond to earth's shifting magnetic poles which occur about every 11,500 years. Increasing volcanic activity above ground and in the ocean sets up an evaporation and precipation cyle beyond anything we've experienced, This won't be the worst ice age, but others account for the extinction of the dinosaurs and other extinction events.
Good for a laugh.
Spoken like a true religious fanatic - closed mind and open mouth.
This time it's different...
Sometimes phrases don't apply to every single different topic ever. Look at this, do you think this is sustainable?
Global CO2
I hope it's sustainable for the sake of humans and plantlife. The earth is CO2 starved right now and causing all manner of problems. If it gets up to 1500ppm we will be in a much better posiition.
Btw nice that they measure CO2 levels near an active volcano.
It's different EVERY time.
There is a possibility of a 5.0 earthquake in LA as well.
Wonderful!
It never ceases to amaze the amount of coordination and effort that gets used to pump this weather/climate crap.
Devastation is not a process, it is an event and few will see it coming.
But the lemmings need their causes. Onward lemmings!!!!
Extended catastrophe... Like glaciers or tectonics
California expects all surface reservoirs filled by April 2016.
So where is the 1200 year drought and water crisis?
Here is the answer (it never was):
https://sostratusworks.wordpress.com/2015/03/28/california-waterworld-of...
Actual weather forecasters expect nothing of the kind:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/101515-noaa-strong-el-nino-sets...
Chuckle. Weather "forecasters" often fail to accurately predict the weather 3, 4, or 5 days ahead and you think they can predict weeks, months, years or decades ahead? You CAN'T actually believe that and claim to be rational and sober. Weather forecasting is yet another scam and racket foisted on the American people by "science".
Where's "Message" to tell us that this is criminal Putin's fault?
Engaged in a nude homo-erotic wrestling match with Alfreud Newman who swears Putin is the Messiah
The earth will experience weather in all locations all year.
True.
And in some places the weather is going to be trying to murder people in ways they did not expect it to do! I mean, how many "1,000 year snow/flood/ice/etc" will people be able to survive every year.
But it's fine. I'm okay with all that. It's just how it is now. 1,000 year weather events every year. It's okay. Heck it's probably interesting!
Yeah, and you can believe whatever this guy says because he's a SCIENTIST and he knows everything - almost. Just ask him.
Remember that science is wrong virtually 100% of the time, that is the one constant in science that occurs time and time again. In the end, science always proves itself wrong. It has already proved itself wrong multiple times regarding this very issue but continues to make definitive statements to appeas its flock of naive followers.
fukishima and geo-engineering aka chemtrails have nothing to do with this...I am just a conspiracy theorist that got out of the matrix so what do I know. I am sure there is a fema camp waiting for me. wake up people. Maybe trump will save us...lol.
I posted on this a year and a half ago. It took longer to develop because of a new and unusual High Pressure heat zone over the and in the Pacific North West oceans. But, the El Nino finally broke that high down, and now it is free to develop. Releasing years of heat accumulation in the Pacific waters to the West.
I remember you posting about a year and a half ago about how important the whole issue was to your grandchildren's future and that you were up for discussing this important issue. You then promptly virtually completely stopped talking about it.
Look, I enjoy your comments and the whole Ukraine thing is important, but how about taking some reddies for a change?
Hay, I got 59 reddies last weekend, my personal best!
As far as I can work out, 195% of the scientific community are manipulating data.
Headline translation: The El Nino is about to break the drought so some gloom and doom catastrophe meme must take it's place in order that TPTB can tax and control all of the "dirty" fossil fuels while both keeping everybody shitting their pants and making way for the new water barons...
Meanwhile Fukushima is frying the pacific and most likely the North American continent and damn near every storage facility holding nuclear waste is probably leaking. Coal is dirty but fracked NG is clean and does not have to abide by the clean water act because of it's super cleanness, nuclear energy is untouchable and men now have vaginas.
Before y'all get all prideful and belligerent and such, read through this:
http://guymcpherson.com/2014/01/climate-change-summary-and-update/
Then get back to me...
You missed the /sarc. If you believe this (and I do think that Guy McPherson believes in what he is writing) then you and he seriously need to get the viewpoint from scientists who work in the field. Yes, it is absolutely true that the average person has a pretty good understanding of the weather and climate as it affects them (do I need an umbrella or a warm coat today etc) but to understand why things happen you need an expert and someone who actually observes data and tries to draw conclusions from those data following a scientific methodology.
The IPCC is a government/political body, not a scientific body. There isn't a scientist alive today who can say that the earth is warming beyond anything seen before because we only have limited data. Even if we believe in our hearts that warming or cooling is happening, until we have the data we can't state that. We will need at least 10,000 years of data to even begin to try to model current weather predictably and that is just a bare minimum. A million years would gve us more to play with but even then we need sensors concentrated across the land and oceans and at multiple altitudes and depths.
There isn't a scientist in the world who can say that CO2 is a pollutant because it is a bald faced lie and he or she would be laughed at, not least by the medical community. CO2 is arguably the most important gas for human life; literally Carbon and Oxygen. We are starved of CO2 in the current atmosphere. Co2 concentration should ideally triple or more from where it is now for optimum human (and plant) life. I guess I could on and on but I won't. Just read and read all you can and if the person you are reading isn't an astro or solar physicist or meteorologist working from verifed data then move on. Try NIPCC.org to begin.
The "I" in IPCC is for "intergovernmental" which to me means that it is where the science meets government. The IPCC doesn't do the research, it gathers and crunches it down into something .govvie types can understand, especially in it's "summary for policy makers" and "synthesis report" (Working Group 4 WG4).
No climate scientist would ever say "the earth is warming beyond anything seen before". keep twisting those words bro...
The IPCC is co-sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization which can trace it's roots beyond the 1872 creation of the International Meteorological Organization to navy men who wished to gather ...wait for it...DATA.
hay mijev, gonna try to convince people that the WMO is not a scientific body?
LULZ