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It's Official - Biggest Nino Ever - Killer La Nina to Follow

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

 

This morning NOAA released its data for the Pacific Ocean temperatures for the week of November 9th. We hit a record - the current El Nino is the strongest in recorded history.

Before 2015 the largest recorded weekly reading of El Nino occurred during the week of November 26 in 1997. We passed that milestone last week. The data from 1997 - The El Nino index set a record of 2.8: (Link to data)

 

noaa1997

 

As of last week the Pacific Ocean in region 3.4 (where El Nino is measured) hit a new record of 3.0: (Link)

record

 

So another weather record has been set. What does it mean? In the very short term it means that there will be some hellacious weather in the US Pacific West/Texas in the next 90 days. It also means there will be a drought in Australia and Indonesia. Other parts of the globe will feel the consequences of the mega Nino.

However, there is another consequence of this year's El Nino that is virtually a sure thing to happen within the next half year. A very rapid change in El Nino water temperatures will follow - in nine months we will have gone 180 degrees in the opposite direction and we will be dealing with a very strong La Nina.

 

The following plots the changes from El Nino (red) to La Nina (blue). Note the rapid change that occurred from November of 1997 to the fall of 1998. A very big La Nina followed the record El Nino:

The numbers:

1998

A chart of the 1998 event:

98chart

This chart from today's NOAA report is a synopsis of the computer forecasts for the for the collapsing El Nino and soon-to-be La Nina.

MODEL

What will the coming La Nina bring us? If history is the gauge, then we should be preparing for a record hurricane season in the summer/fall of 2016, and a return to the crushing droughts in the Pacific West. This is what NOAA reports for the hurricane season of 1998:

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-16 at 9.29.34 AM

 

In March of 2015 the Australian Meteorology department issued its first warning that a big El Nino was in our future. I wrote about it, and in the blog I made some predictions/recommendations of what it meant. Many of those things have now proven correct (Link). So I'll go out on a limb with some deep thoughts on the coming La Nina:

- If you live anywhere along the US coast from Virginia all the way to Texas (especially Florida) make some preparations.

-If you're thinking of putting your house up on stilts to avoid flood damage, do it now. By March of 2016 the "Coming La Nina" story will be in the media - too late to hire the construction crews to raise the house.

-To the extent possible increase flood and wind insurance protection.

-Short the stocks of those insurance companies that have large risk exposure to the US east coast.

-If you're thinking of buying that dream house on the ocean in the Sunbelt, wait a year - there will be some bargains. If you're a seller - call the broker soon....

 

The La Nina will result in a resumption of drought conditions in the West. So consider:

-Enjoy the West Coast skiing this year - the next two years will suck.

-Don't buy a vegetable farm (or heaven forbid a grape grower) in California just yet.

-Pot growers in Cali (huge biz) are going to get squeezed - these growers use a ton of water.

I wonder about Phoenix and Las Vegas (more than SF or LA). These cities are highly dependent on the Colorado River/Lake Mead. In a year the headline will be; "Drought Returns - Lake Mead Level Resumes Drop". What might be the implications of that? I can't think of anything to be 'long' of in that scenario - including casinos.....

 

There is even a political side to this. Assume that we get the La Nina, and we have an over-sized hurricane season that brings with it significant damage. This would happen 30-60 days before the election. Would it make a difference at the ballot box? The Press reaction to a big storm would be:

"Super Storm Lolita - More Evidence of Climate Change!"

And what are the positions of some of the candidates?

Rubio:

“We're not going to make America a harder place to create jobs in order to pursue policies that will do absolutely nothing, nothing to change our climate.”

 

Trump:

"So I am not a believer, and I will, unless somebody can prove something to me, I believe there’s weather."

 

Carson: (WTF?)

“I believe that God gave the creatures he made the ability to adapt to their environment. Because he’s very smart and he didn’t want to start over every 50 years.”

 

My fictional "Hurricane Lolita" would crash into Del Boca Vista - the worst damage would be to the Republican party.

 

501a91abb9695

 

 

 

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Tue, 11/17/2015 - 13:59 | 6805062 delacroix
delacroix's picture

didn't NOAA just tell us a cat 5 hurricane was going to hit mexico?  turned out to be a minor tropical storm. not just incompetent, but agenda driven globalist criminals.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 13:53 | 6805038 Baa baa
Baa baa's picture

As pointed out, the weather has cycles about which we haven't a clue. We know about 200 years of weather records. I do not doubt humans will see weather that will drive the climate change crowd bananas but it does not change the fact that we know nothing substantial about weather cycles. So, expect the unexpected.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 14:10 | 6805124 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

Baa Baa - Excellent points!!  Like dickhead Rumsfield said: "We don't know the unknowns" or something to that effect.  The arrogance of the "global warming" crowd knows no bounds as they think their data of 100 years or so is valid in predicting the utterly complex mechanism that is the earth's climate.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 13:25 | 6809551 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Known unknowns or unknown unknowns.

What Rumsfeld said was actually very obvious for anyone with a modicum of intelligence.  Not that he made the best decisions with the best of intentions, just made some wise observations.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 13:23 | 6804888 DOT
DOT's picture

Gee, would'nt be cool if you could trade the weather instead of equities! Place a put on precipitation; a call on calamity!  Short that Nino 1.5 and go long 3.4 for a straddle. Always a change in the weather headed our way!

 

 

edit.

Jack where did you find " Even the Pacific deep waters have absorbed record heat..."?

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 13:20 | 6809513 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

I suggest google it using some keep words. There have been lots of science released over the last couple years about deep waters of the Pacific taking up record heat. But my main source, I will link to and the story is in the past blog posts.

http://robertscribbler.com/

If you are serious about weather and climate, this guy is the best at breaking it down into understandable analysis.

Thu, 11/19/2015 - 11:48 | 6813399 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Followed your link and found, "Polar Amplification, El Nino or Both? NASA Shows October of 2015 Was Hotter Than All of the Previous 1617 Months" - That would be a bit over 134 years... which is absolute and total BULLSHIT!!! So I call your "good source" an AGW scammer who is so FOS he can't see out of his eyes without a parascope.

If you are serial about AGW, you should know that NASA has been fudging current readings and screwing with the temps and the temp "records" for some time now. NASA is not a reliable source for weather data.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 01:16 | 6807858 farmerbraun
farmerbraun's picture

Regardless of who made that statement up , it remains pure conjecture.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 16:22 | 6805824 newdoobie
newdoobie's picture

There is a big volcano under the ice sheet in the antarctic. Some of the sheet melt last decade was exacerbated by it.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:56 | 6804826 DOT
DOT's picture

Bruce, glad to see you back here in the pit of despair. I would like to point out to you, that although Hurricaine development in the Atlantic can be impeded by wind shears stemming from the El Nino weather pattern, the La Nina does nothing to create or stregnthen Atlantic storms. Going back over the years you can definitely detect the cyclicality (due to suppression) but there is no physicality or identifiable process whereby a La Nina could cause more frequent or stronger storms.

BTW what do you think about the recent changes to SS?

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:43 | 6804777 _SILENCER
_SILENCER's picture

El Nino can be pretty gnarly here in the PRK.

I am anxious to see rain, watch it fall, see it fill the lake.

I just godamn hate driving in that shit. The roads turn into a total, utter circus, even more so than they are daily when the sun shines.

My question is: how has the geo-engineering aerosol program affected this cyle, its severity, and ultimately, the amount of toxicity it will either rain down or loosen from a ground already inundated with aluminum and other chemtrail vomit.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 13:55 | 6805050 Baa baa
Baa baa's picture

DARPA

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:39 | 6804752 Ol Man
Ol Man's picture

A strong el nino, yes...  Stronger than 97/98?  No.

 

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/17/is-the-current-el-nino-stronger-th...

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:49 | 6804802 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

As of today this El Nino has the highest recorded level in NOAA's data banks.

 

You think I make this stuff up?

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 02:26 | 6807968 PlayMoney
PlayMoney's picture

Ivan hit Alabama in 2004, you are putting storms in 1998 that didn't occur

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 01:18 | 6807863 farmerbraun
farmerbraun's picture

It appears that you don't know a hell of a lot about it Bruce.
Just saying. . . .

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 15:45 | 6805642 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

It isn't about making things up... it's about presentation and spin.

But for the record, gov't stats are dubious (and provably so) and shouldn't be trusted outright. Putting all your faith in one chart or one page or one agency is where the problems begin.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 15:51 | 6805671 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

seems ocean levels only rise when looked upon by climate hysterics..living at sea level for 40 yrs and if dat atlantic has risen it is not measureable by the human eye. if i look away and al gore looks it must rise almost to his malibu mansion..so who do i believe?? my eyes or your so called science??

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 14:01 | 6805077 delacroix
delacroix's picture

no, I think NOAA made it up

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 13:12 | 6804875 Chipped ham
Chipped ham's picture

Do you believe that it's man-caused? 

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 13:03 | 6804850 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Would that be BEFORE or AFTER the monthly adjustment of the data in those NOAH "data banks"?

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 18:38 | 6806477 darteaus
darteaus's picture

They call it NORMALIZING now.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:37 | 6804751 VladLenin
VladLenin's picture

1998 didn't make the list and it was an El Nino year. Also how do you to explain 2003-2005 and 2007? All El Nino Years.

Effective propaganda has to have some element of truth, Bruce. You suck at it. So, go back to pumping the neighbor's cat.

Seasons with the most named storms, 1851 - Present Rank Year Number of Storms 1. 2005 28 2. 1933 20 3. 2012 19 3. 2011 19 3. 2010 19 3. 1995 19 3. 1887 19 8. 1969 18 9. 2008 16 9. 2003 16 9. 1936 16 12. 2007 15 13. 2004 15 14. 2001 15 15. 2000 15



 

 

 

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 14:03 | 6805076 Baa baa
Baa baa's picture

164 years out of how many hundred thousands of (Actual number still in debate) years? Meh, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 13:05 | 6804855 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

Vlad - Thanks for making my point. I think you have things off a tad.

Look at 1998, It started as a very strong El Nino, but by the time of hurricane season in the fall the ENSO cycle had flipped to a strong La Nina.

 

 

 

In fact 2005,2012,2011 2010, 1995. 2003, 2007 2004,2001 and 2000 were all La Nina in the fall of the year.

 

There is one year on your list that does not fit. That was 1969, In the fall there were El Nino conditions.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:23 | 6804693 mynameisnobody
mynameisnobody's picture

How many whale farts does it take to warm the ocean ?

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 14:04 | 6805090 Baa baa
Baa baa's picture

I know it only takes 1 to get the death weather hounds barking.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:23 | 6804692 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

there are many more equally or arguably more important variables that impact hurricane season potential than PDO oscillation...

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:47 | 6804789 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Are you referring to HAARP? Should we in Florida worry if Obama is in a bad mood?

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:22 | 6804691 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

Just HAARP it and it will be awesome again.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:15 | 6804655 tictawk
tictawk's picture

@Bruce Kasting

You are a functional dunce if you believe that govt can do something about climate change.  Note that everything govt touches turns to crap and their polices implemented "with good intent" end up doing more harm.  These social do-gooders have created a huge mess in every aspect of public life, healthcare, foreign policy, domestic policy, immigration, education etc and you are implying that by taking more money via taxes they can control Mother Nature?  The biggest problem with liberalism is that policies are implemented "with good intent" but there is no accountablility for the RESULTS.  Public monies are squandered with impunity and the public at large is worse off for it.  Worse these assholes have encumbered future generations with trillions in debt.  Never forget that every debt is a future tax.  Grow up and get real!!!

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 21:56 | 6807321 JamaicaJim
JamaicaJim's picture

+1,000 Tic....I was going to pound out something close. Bruce is off his meds apparently.

 

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:59 | 6804838 nofluer
nofluer's picture

"...these assholes have encumbered future generations with trillions in debt."

Only if the society at large decides to honor the debts of the robber barons of finance and the banksters. It would be a simple thing for govts all over the world to declare a "jubilee" year and all debt would be eliminated - financial reset to zero across the board.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:25 | 6804705 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

Climates have always been changing; it is the man-made global warming that is the 100 billion advertisement scheme to tax the world for the benefit of the uber wealthy and to control their favorite spots to keep you out.  Where there is consensus science, then get your wallet or pocket book out; it is going to cost you.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:17 | 6804646 falak pema
falak pema's picture

BK is the man who taught me the limits of the mantra : The Market and WS ARE the economy!

He used this often in his earlier analysis; circa 2011; about what the market was indicating where we should be heading. I think then his spiel was that Government spending in social programs were showing a gaping hole and that he didn't see Asset revival and economic revival strong enough to fill the shortfall in pension and social security entitlements.

What the subsequent history of the market has proven is that the market under QE/ZIRP/carry trade/currency wars/ derivative scams...as per Naomi Prins's current rant here... is now anything but the image of the real economy. Its "never never land"... certainly not the image of real economic projections and we are still looking desperately for Peter Pan !

Coming back to BK's current take : I adhere to his views on climate change and his prediction that it spells the demise of the GOP.

The next generation of Millenials are now moving away from the neo-liberal Reaganomics paradigm of Big Corporate/Big Fossil/Casino Capital/Warmongering mantras of GOP's neo-con world of past 40 years. The GOP snake does not seem to know how to shed its old skin.

We move to renewables of marginal low cost environment. Think Rifkin.

We move to AI and its awesome fall out in the collaborative commons. And its already too late to avoid huge dystopian effects of El Nino's oncoming samba dance!

 

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:03 | 6804617 xavi1951
xavi1951's picture

Finally!  Something nobody can blame the Jews for or claim it's a False-Flag.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:00 | 6804602 geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

Bruce, How do you get that Lady in Red Dress to give up cocktail parties and start splitting wood  ?

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 15:19 | 6805501 Dragon HAwk
Dragon HAwk's picture

probably referring to the imaginary lady in the matrix,  Bathroom scene... Lipstick mark... Not there damn it, when he brushes his chin

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:26 | 6804711 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

Red dress? I've done so many of these they get blurred. I don't remeber the girl in the red dress.

I do recall the tale about the lady with red lips:

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-01-07/you-wont-believe?page=2

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 14:49 | 6805344 Bob
Bob's picture

Nice to see you back, Bruce--even if we do so often disagree!  I actually followed-up on you at your blog recently just wondering if you were still, well, if you were still with us, man.  Glad to see you alive and kickin', Bruce. Condition/physical functioning still reasonably manageable?

 

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 13:47 | 6805000 Seeing Red
Seeing Red's picture

I'm Seeing Red and I approve this image ^^^.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 13:06 | 6804859 geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As I recall it was Lady in Red Dress at a cocktail party and something about a chair that broke as she sat down. It was a classic description of  social life in the suburbs which is isolated from real life in America.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:59 | 6804597 Aubiekong
Aubiekong's picture

Heck people when will we learn?  We are destroying our own planet and now mars too.  It is warmer on mars as well and its all due to man made global warming or climate change or simply capitalism.  Please send your carbon tax credit payment now to Gore so he can afford another 747 and save the planet....

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 13:07 | 6809431 BarkingCat
BarkingCat's picture

I was going into my grocery store last week and there were 2 young 20 something 1960s throwbacks standing by the door and trying to get people to sign some sort of carbon tax petition.

I was in a hurry so I did not stop, but next time one of these people is doing this I will stop and ask them if they enjoy working for Goldman and Sachs.

It should be an interesting conversation.

 

Maybe I can make their heads pop.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:59 | 6804592 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Don't worry Bruce.  See the Weather Bell Daily Forecast:

http://www.weatherbell.com

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:59 | 6804591 TheABaum
TheABaum's picture

Is "Bruce Krasting" a pseudonym for Al Gore?

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:53 | 6804570 Zero-Hegemon
Zero-Hegemon's picture

See, this story is PROOF that anthropogenic global warming is REAL!

I'm serial!

#ManBearPigsMatter

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:44 | 6804528 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Many of those who bought "Lakeside lots" for an extra $50k on up to $500k are now regretting it since lakes are drying up leaving their "lakefront properties" overlooking dried mud flats.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:50 | 6804809 nofluer
nofluer's picture

"...leaving their "lakefront properties" overlooking dried mud flats..."

Sounds like a win to me! Moar garden space!!!

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