This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

It's Official - Biggest Nino Ever - Killer La Nina to Follow

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

 

This morning NOAA released its data for the Pacific Ocean temperatures for the week of November 9th. We hit a record - the current El Nino is the strongest in recorded history.

Before 2015 the largest recorded weekly reading of El Nino occurred during the week of November 26 in 1997. We passed that milestone last week. The data from 1997 - The El Nino index set a record of 2.8: (Link to data)

 

noaa1997

 

As of last week the Pacific Ocean in region 3.4 (where El Nino is measured) hit a new record of 3.0: (Link)

record

 

So another weather record has been set. What does it mean? In the very short term it means that there will be some hellacious weather in the US Pacific West/Texas in the next 90 days. It also means there will be a drought in Australia and Indonesia. Other parts of the globe will feel the consequences of the mega Nino.

However, there is another consequence of this year's El Nino that is virtually a sure thing to happen within the next half year. A very rapid change in El Nino water temperatures will follow - in nine months we will have gone 180 degrees in the opposite direction and we will be dealing with a very strong La Nina.

 

The following plots the changes from El Nino (red) to La Nina (blue). Note the rapid change that occurred from November of 1997 to the fall of 1998. A very big La Nina followed the record El Nino:

The numbers:

1998

A chart of the 1998 event:

98chart

This chart from today's NOAA report is a synopsis of the computer forecasts for the for the collapsing El Nino and soon-to-be La Nina.

MODEL

What will the coming La Nina bring us? If history is the gauge, then we should be preparing for a record hurricane season in the summer/fall of 2016, and a return to the crushing droughts in the Pacific West. This is what NOAA reports for the hurricane season of 1998:

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-16 at 9.29.34 AM

 

In March of 2015 the Australian Meteorology department issued its first warning that a big El Nino was in our future. I wrote about it, and in the blog I made some predictions/recommendations of what it meant. Many of those things have now proven correct (Link). So I'll go out on a limb with some deep thoughts on the coming La Nina:

- If you live anywhere along the US coast from Virginia all the way to Texas (especially Florida) make some preparations.

-If you're thinking of putting your house up on stilts to avoid flood damage, do it now. By March of 2016 the "Coming La Nina" story will be in the media - too late to hire the construction crews to raise the house.

-To the extent possible increase flood and wind insurance protection.

-Short the stocks of those insurance companies that have large risk exposure to the US east coast.

-If you're thinking of buying that dream house on the ocean in the Sunbelt, wait a year - there will be some bargains. If you're a seller - call the broker soon....

 

The La Nina will result in a resumption of drought conditions in the West. So consider:

-Enjoy the West Coast skiing this year - the next two years will suck.

-Don't buy a vegetable farm (or heaven forbid a grape grower) in California just yet.

-Pot growers in Cali (huge biz) are going to get squeezed - these growers use a ton of water.

I wonder about Phoenix and Las Vegas (more than SF or LA). These cities are highly dependent on the Colorado River/Lake Mead. In a year the headline will be; "Drought Returns - Lake Mead Level Resumes Drop". What might be the implications of that? I can't think of anything to be 'long' of in that scenario - including casinos.....

 

There is even a political side to this. Assume that we get the La Nina, and we have an over-sized hurricane season that brings with it significant damage. This would happen 30-60 days before the election. Would it make a difference at the ballot box? The Press reaction to a big storm would be:

"Super Storm Lolita - More Evidence of Climate Change!"

And what are the positions of some of the candidates?

Rubio:

“We're not going to make America a harder place to create jobs in order to pursue policies that will do absolutely nothing, nothing to change our climate.”

 

Trump:

"So I am not a believer, and I will, unless somebody can prove something to me, I believe there’s weather."

 

Carson: (WTF?)

“I believe that God gave the creatures he made the ability to adapt to their environment. Because he’s very smart and he didn’t want to start over every 50 years.”

 

My fictional "Hurricane Lolita" would crash into Del Boca Vista - the worst damage would be to the Republican party.

 

501a91abb9695

 

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 11/18/2015 - 13:09 | 6809445 BarkingCat
BarkingCat's picture

Their lot is increasing.  ... Now the country assessor will come by and raise their taxes. They have more land.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:29 | 6804448 CHoward
CHoward's picture

The very first thing I did this morning when I woke up was to rush to my window and peek outside just to see if there was any weather.  Whew - there was!

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:33 | 6804462 Tom Servo
Tom Servo's picture

"recorded history" is only about 200 years; and that is being generous!

 

*yawn*

 

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:27 | 6804713 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

Distorted history you meant to say.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 14:10 | 6805119 Baa baa
Baa baa's picture

Stop that!!!

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 16:07 | 6804393 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

Models and speculation.

Junk science at its worst.

"...another consequence of this year's El Nino that is virtually a sure thing to happen within the next half year."

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:02 | 6804353 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Great to see you back Bruce, break out the woolens !!!

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 10:55 | 6804319 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

I'd never go out on a limb to guess when PMs will go back up, but here's a prediction I will make -

Forget Global Warming, Climate Change, El Nino, La Nina, Al Goof....

the only thing we have to fear is the next SOLAR GRAND MINIMA and it will be full blown after 2030. And then, my friends, things will get even more interesting for mankind if they're not interesting enough already. Think along the lines of the Thames and the Mississipi being just about 100% frozen in winter. "Mini Ice Age" is such a cute term...Disney Princesses and the like. Frozen...my ass.

Long coal and fire wood.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:48 | 6804799 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Ha! By then I'll either be a Frozen ice treat for the woods animals, or shivering in an old folks home not remembering how warm it used to be.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 10:52 | 6804309 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Weather forecasting in general doesn't inspire confidence in anyone paying attention. Weather Underground has been ruined to the point where they display a clear and sunny icon while the radar plot to the right shows thunderstorm activity. In the MId-Atlantic, we're hopefully looking at a milder Winter due to the delay of snow cover forming in Canada. But this is offset by more snow cover in Siberia. Which one will have more influence? Who the hell knows. 

Thu, 11/19/2015 - 11:30 | 6813276 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Can't speak to/for the rest of the world, but for the midwest... this year... I'm looking for short term moderation... ie North of us colder than a pimp's heart. South of us, marginally warmer than North. In between mild and wet.

General LT trending colder. Sun is cycling from maximum to minimum - thus like someone else said, frozen rivers,, and look for knitted ball sacks so the family jewels don't freeze and fall off.

At this point in time, "global warming" is complete and utter bullshit. The world's climate WILL get warmer... in time... but I don't expect to live long enough to see it. My kids... maybe. Depends on the length of the solar minimum. But I do want to live long enough to see the AGW people like Hansen and Gore slip on the ice and freeze to death.

And I'd really like to see the AGW crowd be subjected to energy limitations that match their temperature forecasts/predictions. If they say it will be 85 degrees F, they should get NO heating fuel... even if the real temp is -10F

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 10:52 | 6804306 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

This story violates my SAFE SPACE!

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:16 | 6804402 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Put your pants back on.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 18:41 | 6806495 darteaus
darteaus's picture

It's a kilt.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 14:28 | 6805233 Kprime
Kprime's picture

pantcist, retraining for you.  two weeks in a dress.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 14:12 | 6805133 Baa baa
Baa baa's picture

Shit! There went the coffee. Thanx for the laff!

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 10:49 | 6804290 Zero-Hegemon
Zero-Hegemon's picture

Go long generators and camp toilets

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 10:44 | 6804256 Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

Geoengineering.org has got this covered man.

These stats are about as useful as stock charts and tech analysis.

 

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:55 | 6804574 SixIsNinE
SixIsNinE's picture

 - correction from the above:  it's   geoengineeringWATCH.org   - yes, excellent site,

pay attention to the old gov papers (1966) pdf's there for a long planned weather modification strategy in place by .goober entities

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 15:37 | 6805602 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

Good site for their topic, but climate alarmists in the extreme. Their favourite term for the current state of the climate is 'meltdown.'

Two of the best skeptic sites don't won't talk about geo-eng.

WUWT

JoNova

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 10:43 | 6804253 madcows
madcows's picture

right, b/c they are so good at forecasting hurricane season, i'm going to trust their forecasting for other weather phenomina...like el nino, and la nina.  The NOAA is about as accurate as a Columbia University Economist.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:04 | 6804364 Babalooee
Babalooee's picture

Agreed Cow,

    Bruce is a smart guy and should know Nino/Nina are only contributing pieces in the complex and often opaque puzzle of weather. And as for long term weather forecasting? The only better jobs in the world are forecasting seismic and the economy. Never held accountable in any of the three. Job forever, well..till the robots move in. 

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:43 | 6804743 nofluer
nofluer's picture

History, and climate, repeats. The periodicity changes, the durability of effect changes, but a raindrop is still a raindrop, sunlight is still light, and hot and cold are always relative terms. I have a small farm. I can pretty reliably predict short term weather with the help of radar and a good current front map - generally out to about 30 days. Beyond that it's break out the card deck and find someone you like to cut the cards.

There's a weather guy in KC, MO (Gary Lezak) who has come up with some new theories and forecasting models that are fairly accurate for about a year - based on the existing weather in the fall. He can forecast severe/heavy storm occurrence for the coming year to within a week of occurrence (+/-).

That said... my observation of his forecasts indicate tha he is still learning when and where he can call a storm with accuracy. (for example, he either hasn't learned thatt weather anomalies can really change the expected weather for isolated locations.)

So... want to forecast the weather for tomorrow? flip a coin and hope it turns out like you want it to.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 18:55 | 6806543 Arnold
Arnold's picture

You cut the legs from under  your pretty good post with the last sentence.

I agree that long term weather prediction is a crap shoot, but as you stated above, the tools available today , make tomorrow's weather easy squeezy.

Cripes I remember plotting Hurricanes by Lat and Long  with a pencil and paper.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:32 | 6804460 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

Actually I believe some asshats tried to criminally prosecute and send thusly to jail some volcanologists or earthquake experts in Italy who failed to predict an earthquake or something that killed some people.  So there have been some witch hunts.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 12:55 | 6804821 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I recall that also. Not worth looking up, though. Good recollection.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 18:44 | 6806506 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Reminds me of Arthur C Clarke quote:

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Much as I hate to admit it, weather is as weather does.

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/a/arthur_c_clarke.html

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 10:41 | 6804244 proLiberty
proLiberty's picture

For those who deny climate change is real, all you have to do is consider that the settlement of the cliff dwellings at Mesa Verde became abandoned when a pervasive drought destroyed farming, and thus that society, in that area about 1300 AD, long before Al Gore scolded us about our SUVs.

I am awaiting sound research showing the optimum climate for our present biosphere. But most "research" is really an attempt to secure the optimum level of government research funding.

It is no surprise that almost every demand made by advocates of Anthropogenic Global Warming (er, now "climate chage") converges on bigger government, higher taxes, less freedom and more restrictions. That tells me all I need to know about this massive fraud.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 00:39 | 6807785 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

a pervasive drought destroyed farming, and thus that society, in that area about 1300 AD,...

 

How do we know it wasn't demographics and their slave water carriers revolted against their aging and impotent masters?

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 13:27 | 6804892 highly illogical
highly illogical's picture

And if they just had an Al Gore at the time to figure out that all they needed to do was raise taxes and sell carbon credits - they could have prevented the drought!

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 18:31 | 6806434 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Mr. Gore said no other blood relatives had suffered dementia.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/25/us/the-2000-campaign-the-fitness-repor...

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 18:37 | 6806424 Arnold
Arnold's picture

In discussing Mr. Gore's family medical history, Dr. Tubb said he had not examined Mr. Gore's father, Albert Sr., but he believed that his death at age 90 in 1998 was from complications of Alzheimer's disease. Asked about the possibility his father had Alzheimer's, Mr. Gore rose forward on the couch and expressed surprise, saying, ''He did?''

Speaking of his father, a former senator from Tennessee, Mr. Gore said, ''There is no doubt that he had some form of dementia before he died, but I really do not know exactly what kind it was.''

He said he attributed his father's dementia, which he said was present for a year or two before his death, to a severe head injury his father suffered in his late 80's. A bull was acting up and the senior Mr. Gore whacked it on the nose. ''The bull upended him and my father landed on his head,'' Mr. Gore said.

Mr. Gore said no other blood relatives had suffered dementia.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/25/us/the-2000-campaign-the-fitness-repor...

 

I believe Al Gore is suffering now.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:33 | 6804468 . . . _ _ _ . . .
. . . _ _ _ . . .'s picture

NOBODY denies climate change. AGW is another thing. Alarmists paint skeptics as deniers but there isn't a credible person anywhere who says the climate doesn't change. That's why the term is so much better than 'global warming'.  It's a catch-all.

The only way humans change the climate is by spraying in the clouds. THAT PART might be AAGW (anthropogenically accentuated global warming.)

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:26 | 6804440 lostintheflood
lostintheflood's picture

I am awaiting sound research showing the optimum climate for our present biosphere. But most "research" is really an attempt to secure the optimum level of government research funding.

Top 6 Climate Change Problems

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ew05sRDAcU

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 18:22 | 6806399 Arnold
Arnold's picture

You gots to be a carpenter of some experience to hit the nail so squarely on the head.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:18 | 6804409 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

There are many who understand the science yet disagree with the politicization of the issue; ignoring mountains of physical evidence and going with your hunches is cargo cult logic of the worst kind.

Wed, 11/18/2015 - 12:09 | 6809124 TheAnswerIs42
TheAnswerIs42's picture

There is plenty of recent "physical evidence" of climate variability, but it is not possible to accurately measure the change in climate with such a small historical record (only since the sat data of the 70's, everything prior has error bars of +- 3 C).  And the part of that variability caused by humans? While it's there, it is almost too small to measure. There is a Nobel waiting in the wings for the one with the real empirical answer.

 

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 14:11 | 6805130 PTR
PTR's picture

 "In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill."

-Aurelio Peccei, founder of Club of Rome, quoted in The First Global Revolution, 1991 

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 18:20 | 6806389 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Good Quote, but ex terrestrial threats were not considered?

Terrestrial aliens are currently being considered as a uniting threat, if there is enough twitter time.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:37 | 6804485 xavi1951
xavi1951's picture

The science?  You mean the figures made up to fit the model?

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 15:33 | 6805581 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

yea question is how long have they been screwing with the data bias. Bunch of bs screwing with data. Now there is a high crime. The UN climate moonies win either way. If they get away with it they get what they want. world tax. and if they dont, they can claim no proof.could be

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:04 | 6804362 GRDguy
GRDguy's picture

I suspect there are long-term weather cycles we have yet to understand. When settlers first came to Phoenix, many canals were already there, but no people. There were also cliff dwellers sites abandoned, not far away.  

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 14:49 | 6805345 undertow1141
undertow1141's picture

And then the human caused global warming people use those ancient droughts as fear fodder for today's idiots. THe climate never stops changing. It has been warmer than now. It will get colder again, but nobody knows when. Someday glaciers will scrape New York city off of the bedrock. And here's the scariest part. You can't do anything about it. 

Climate Fearists, its what I call them.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 18:12 | 6806350 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Completely rational except for the thought , on my part, that NYC will not be there to scrape off the granite in 50 years, much less 10,000 years.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 10:30 | 6804182 Rainman
Rainman's picture

I thought Cali's Crap and Tax scheme was supposed to end all this NINA/NINO bullshit.

They lied again.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 10:28 | 6804172 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Your Data points go back only TWENTY FIVE years and from this you claim this is the Biggest El Nino EVER!!!

 

Really?

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 11:21 | 6804415 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

It is the biggest that we have records for. It's a very strong El Nino.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 14:26 | 6805225 scintillator9
scintillator9's picture

Indeed.

Biggest in recorded history too.

Now only if records were not being destroyed, there might be even more data points.......

https://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/the-harper-government-has-trashed-and-bu...

Reports immediately proliferated that the process was undertaken in careless haste, with the officials sent to gather and transfer the documents allegedly neglecting to take proper inventory of the centuries' worth of documents containing vital information on environmental life, from aquatic ecosystems to water safety and polar research, with some documents reportedly dumped in landfills or burned......

And who knows what else has been lost for this is but one instance.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 18:07 | 6806335 Arnold
Arnold's picture

My cousin's Ice core data is still around and is occasionally referenced .

Used, that I cannot tell you.

Tue, 11/17/2015 - 10:55 | 6804316 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

TWENTY FIVE years!!!

Actually the NOAA data goes back to 1950, so the data is for 65 years. And I did say "recorded" in the piece.

El Nino/La Nina has been around for millions of years. So I agree that 65 years worth of data is just a sliver of history, and in all likelyhood there have been El Ninos that were larger than this event at some time prior to 1950.

 

The entire data base for this can be found here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/enso...

 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!